The Stock Market and Economy

Here's one someone created earlier.

The stock I own has been up every day this week so I don't give a shit.

As someone who dropped out of the market after Cheeto was elected, I’m looking forward to some schadenfreude.

Darn you, R1!

Ok, off to the other thread we go....

You too, r2! And R3!

Janet Yellen says the market shouldn’t listen to this latest indicator. What say you?

Google stock is down 20%+ today. What’s with that? I couldn’t find an article.

Oops, not down 20%. I misread something. Sorry!

(Though, still not a great day today.)

Just moved 3/4ths of my 401K to cash. Orange One farted and I lost 20K in less than an hour.

With brilliance and a little luck, Pelosi will take his ass to the cleaners.

The market is looooong overdue for a correction. Once again, a Democrat will have to fix the mess created by Republicans.

This will sadly be laid at the feet of the Democrats.

Sorry to disrupt the doom and gloom, but the market is now where it once was on June 2, 2019; so it’s not a disaster, yet. I agree a correction is coming, but this isn’t it, yet. You’ll know when you look at the market and the blood runs to your feet. That is a correction.

I’m curious why anybody would move away from the market with Trump in office. Like him or not he’s good for the market and economy. Also why would anyone wish for a recession just to get him out of office? The proposals of the democratic candidates would destroy our economy. They “feel good” but are not sustainable economically.

R12, That is why my house lost half its value when Dubya was President.

I have been in the stock market since before you were born, R12. What you said is horse pucky.

He’s good for the 1% who dabble in the market. He’s not good for the economy r12.

R12, I believe the market loves the Republican agenda. It has nothing to do with Trump, and everything to do with Mitch and Congress. That’s not necessarily good for workers or their families; taxpayers, or anyone, really.

As for [italic] “why anybody would move away from the market”, [/italic] there are many reasons:

A. The bull market has run its course, stocks are overvalued, and overdue for a correction.

B. The China trade war, and other trade wars, are bad for the economy.

C. Trump doesn't understand Jack about trade, the economy, and so forth, but is still interfering with the economy.

D. The Fed has cut rates, indicating that the experts see economic weakness in the future.

E. Brexit may trigger a worldwide recession.

F. Impeachment. The market hates uncertainty.

G. Because of the above, when we do have a bear market, it will be more severe than in the past and harder to get out of.

That’s enough, though I probably could think of more.

[quote] “Also why would anyone wish for a recession just to get him out of office?”

I don’t think that anybody really does wish for a recession. People do recognize that the economy is cyclical, and we are overdue for one. In any event, Trump is an abomination, a criminal, and lots of people will look at his ouster as a consolation prize for an economic downturn.

While I agree with your 99%, Jupiter, Moscow Mitch has no control over The Orange One's tweets, foreign policy and interactions with China, North Korea, etc. He has caused more lightning dips in the S&P than I am used to.

"He’s good for the 1% who dabble in the market."

If you have a 401K, you're "dabbling" in the market, which would make that 1% more like 20-30%.

R17, and these 20-30% that you reference have a larger national debt on their backs, as a result of the tax cuts that went mostly to the 0.01%. And what good is it if you can’t breath because smog-producing regulations were dropped? All the regulations that Trump nixed were originally created for a reason, in response to something that called for it.

The Republicans changed the tax law to allow companies to bring their offshore billions back to the US tax free. Previously, these companies (if applicable) were keeping their vast foreign wealth offshore to avoid taxation. They should have done a compromise. If 20% (I forget the exact amount of the tax) was too much, then how about 15%? And then settle on 10% - something like that. Instead, it went to 0%. [bold] The market loved this. [/bold]

Same with the inheritance/dynasty tax. The US was born rejecting vast inherited wealth. That was the old European way, not the new American way. Again, perhaps a compromise was due. Trump could have used his alleged “deal making” skills, and reduced the tax rate. But no, the rate just went to 0%.

Oh, yeah, meanwhile, most people are paying more in taxes, because they are not high income or high wealth people. And we are all responsible for our share of the ever growing national debt.

And our air and water are less protected.

R12, you're pretty much wrong on all counts. In fact, it's really remarkable just how much you got wrong.

[quote]Like him or not he’s good for the market and economy.

No, actually he isn't. He hasn't done jack shit for the market or the economy other than increase the instability and massively add to our deficit and debt.

[quote]The proposals of the democratic candidates would destroy our economy.

No, actually they wouldn't, which is why you don't, and can't, support that nonsense. Over the past century, the market and the economy have done far better under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.

[quote]They “feel good” but are not sustainable economically.

It's the other way around: massive tax cuts and wars that aren't paid for, which are Republican initiatives, are "not sustainable economically" and are the driver of the vast majority of our debt. The ACA, in contrast, was fully funded. Putting money into the hands of those who will spend it, demand-side economics, is a far more effective approach than supply-side economics, which the elder Bush quite correctly described as "voodoo economics."

You simply have no idea what you're talking about.

R17 most people with a 401k know jack shit about trading stocks. They stick their money in funds that are either actively or passively managed and forget about it. Only 1% of people day trade, if that. The 0.01% got all the breaks.

You ain't seen nothin' yet.

Close to new record high now. This thread is obsolete.

Oh, don't worry about that, R22. Trump will make the thread relevant again.

It's down a bit today after talks about limits on American investment into China. Still overall, it's doing pretty good but I always have anxiety because I have so much money in stocks.

Bitcoin went down too.

Anybody (as President) could goose the stock market by injecting large sums of borrowed money into it. We’ll experience the damage years from now, but for many years long.

The Russell 3000 index is now within 2% of its all time high. It’s had to figure this market.

Stocks drop after weakest US Manufacturing data in a decade.

Also, China manufacturing is down, too.

One man put all these related people out of work. I can’t ignore what a lousy negotiator he is, since he brags about being the best.

My prediction is for a soft or moderately declining market in Q4. If Pence is not implicated in the Trump impeachment, then the market will continue declining until Trump is removed. Then, the market will rally and reach new highs by year-end.

The market has a certain amount of upward movement built in by the many millions of people who make automatic 401k investments every month. If these investments were taken out of the equation you’d see more caution amongst professional investors.

I don't really see any problems.

The market is down 2%ish as of this moment.

Side issue - I inherited my late father's shares 2 years ago. This year I received a whopping $85. I don't own that many shares, but I don't know, I wanted more.

I received the paperwork for the shareholders election. Should I vote for the CEO to receive bonuses? Do people typically vote for them to receive their extra millions as a matter of course?

Trump is not going to be removed, except if he loses in 2020

You DO realize the election is 13 months off, it would take longer than that to impeach him, must less have the Senate shelve all business so they could remove him.

R34: I wouldn’t vote, being unknowing of the issues.

I do vote pro-union when it makes sense, though.

R34: but I bet the stock is up by quite a bit?

Be advised, when you sell, any gain in the stock under your Dad is not taxable. You’ll only pay tax on any gain since he died.

Any R senators leaving in 2020 may vote to oust Trump. Don’t forget them.

R34, has he done a good job?

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned on Tuesday that a recession is on the horizon thanks to the continuing trade tensions with China.

“Of course there’s a recession ahead,” Dimon said during a morning call with reporters after the bank announced its third-quarter earnings.

“It does look like geopolitics, particularly around China and trade, are reducing business confidence and business capital expenditure,” Dimon added.

On Tuesday afternoon, however, JPMorgan Chase spokesman Joe Evangelisti sought to downplay Dimon’s comments, noting that his boss didn’t mention the timing of his prediction.

“He says there is always a recession coming, you just don’t know when,” Evangelisti said. “He is not predicting a recession any time soon.”

The comments come just days after President Trump announced the first phase of a trade deal with China that guarantees another $40 billion in purchases of US goods and will keep tariffs on Chinese imports.

The market reaction to the deal, which hasn’t been written and still needs to be signed, was muted on Monday, with markets about flat.

Businesses have been slowing hiring in recent months as the trade war has dragged on into its 18th month — with economists worried that that will hit consumers.

Dimon added that consumers haven’t shown the same worries that businesses have — especially since unemployment reached a 50-year low last month.

“The consumer is not under strain. The consumer is doing fine,” he said.

On Tuesday, JPMorgan announced that the bank’s profits rose 8 percent during the third quarter, to $9.1 billion, beating analysts’ expectations.

Just wait for the uncontrolled Brexit.

November 1st id a Friday.

It will be a long weekend.

I’m praying for a recession

R42, why?

Bump

I searched for a thread.

I saw a news alert today that read something like “Trump seeks to encourage stock ownership“, but can’t find an article in google now. The market didn’t react, but should have, I thought. Hence my post today.

The market is just about at record highs. It doesn’t care about the flu though it seems to me it’s really is only a matter of time before that hits and it must push stocks down, right?

Plus, Trump is unwinding.

The only thing floating the stock markets is the fire-hose of cash cash that trump took from the middle class under his tax fraud. He is starving the government by a TRILLION dollars for the last three years. Reagan did his and we ended up in the Reagan Recession of the mid 80s. This one will end up worse because of Trump's ignorance.

Yeah, but in the short run, we are having higher highs several days in every week.

Go OrangeShitAss ....not!

The ripple effects are coming for “Trump’s” market

R46, the Fed announced late last year that they were going to do a form of quantitative easing. Immediately before this, they were letting the bonds that they previously bought and which were maturing, do so. This was gradually reducing their holdings and tightening the money supply. Their announcement was that they would start replacing their holdings as they matured. They weren’t increasing their balance sheet, but it was keeping cash in the economy.

So, R46, I’m wondering if you know if the Fed is still doing this QE?

tl;dr when the fed does quantitative easing, the stock market soars.

R49, I predicted that one in the “virus winners and losers” thread. Do I get a cookie?

Hey, could someone explain why the market is down +700?

Because it goes up and down?

Because covid is exploding again and a stimulus looks unlikely.

Exactly what I said in the other thread, R53.

Great minds, R54.