**Breaking News** The Dow Just ____!: Part 3

Link to part 2.

Some absolute moron posted this at the end of the last thread-

“The idea that extra money creation reduces the value of outstanding money by some fraction is simply ludicrous.”

Someone has never heard of the law of supply and demand.

If you create excess quantities of anything- jackets, cars, shoes, dog food- than consumers demand, the excess is worth less than it would be if the quantities were limited. Those excess quantities are then sold at a discount.

If you don’t believe that the same laws apply to printing dollar bills, then you probably aren’t intelligent enough to post anything on this thread.

You might want to research a country called Zimbabwe.

Or look at the job losses and timesheet reductions of people who got a new $15/hr wage...but had their hours cut 25% IF they kept their jobs!

R2, your post reminds me of a tangent. Currently and for many decades, US dollar is off of the gold and silver standard and the free market essentially determines its value. Aren’t you an advocate of pegging the dollar to some quantity of gold; or perhaps to silver and gold?

I never understand that about the Libertarian, or other, advocates of “the free market”; who nonetheless oppose the free market valuation of the dollar. It just seems the most natural thing in the world to me, that the dollar float. It’s practical.

And a modern currency can’t be convertible to gold on demand as there isn’t enough gold in the world to back the US currency. Particularly today, with so much “electronic transactions”, that sometimes seem to arise out of nowhere and return there, without a bank note or coin in appearance. Just numbers on a page.

[quote] “The idea that extra money creation reduces the value of outstanding money by some fraction is simply ludicrous.”

This is not something I know too much about, but doesn’t a larger economy, essentially absorb or manage more dollars, without inflation?

How about a greater population? Ten people with $100 means $10 each. A thousand people with $10,000 still means $10 each. How would this mean inflation?

In addition, don’t we strive for an economy where our gaylings live better than we eldergays? Not sure why, but whatever. Doesn’t that necessitate more money?

I think the matter is more complex than just citing “supply and demand”. Perhaps because we are discussing money, and not donuts or widgets or even peaches.

That's exactly right, R4. The real world is far more complex than an overly-simplistic "supply and demand" worldview. It's the same thing with the minimum wage. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of factors that all play into the economy and you just cannot simplify them down to "supply and demand" and ignore everything else. It doesn't work. Your results will not match what takes place in the real world.

The Idiot Libertarian Troll, who posted that drivel in the other thread and who posted at R2, has been insisting for a dozen years that we are experiencing "Weimar-level hyperinflation." Ron Paul, his idol, insisted that we would be experiencing 50% inflation by the summer of 2012. None of this happened, of course, because the economy just isn't that simple. And Austrian Economics theories, in particular, have been rather conclusively shown to be false over the past dozen years, as nothing they predicted actually took place.

Similarly, the ILT has been proved wrong about the minimum wage over and over again, as the real world examples of Seattle, San Francisco, New York, etc., all demonstrate that yes, you can raise the minimum wage to $15 without those terrible side effects he insisted would happen. The jobs didn't disappear, hours weren't cut, restaurants didn't go out of business, there wasn't a stampede of businesses to other locations, etc. By and large, the economies of those cities absorbed the change without incident.

One thing to keep in mind is that Idiot Libertarian Troll uses a different definition of "inflation" than most of us. When you think of inflation, you're probably thinking of rising prices, wages, rents, etc. That's what pretty much everyone thinks of when they think of inflation. As one dictionary puts it: "a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money."

For devotees of Austrian economics, though, the definition of inflation is "an increase in the supply of money." So, by that definition, we've had "inflation" ever since the Fed increased the money supply in response to the downturn of 2007/2008. According to Mises, a resulting increase in prices "is an inevitable consequence of inflation" (using Mises' definition for the term). So Mises sees "inflation," the increase in the money supply, as the cause and the resulting increase in prices as the consequence.

The fact that the increase in prices hasn't occurred, which means that Mises was wrong, has, thus far, completely eluded our resident ILT. And since his economic beliefs are quasi-religious in nature, you can expect this state of affairs to continue. Mises cannot be wrong. Period. If reality disagrees with Mises, then reality must be wrong.

I loved this thread, in particular, from 2013. He took a temporary spike in mortgage rates and spun multiple doom scenarios out of it, including such gems as:

[quote]The fact that interest rates are rising DRAMATICALLY (over 50% in 6 weeks) means that the bond market is doomed.

and:

[quote]I hope that anyone reading this has --- A) enough silver nickels, dimes and quarters to escape any large city. B) an escape plan from that city, and has set "google alerts" so they can get out before the rest of their neighbors start to panic. C) called and prepped close family in the countryside, and given them money so they will take you in once the dollar dies. Yes, I know I will get mocked for posting this, but the world financial system has already died, and the current spasms are just warning symptoms.

and:

[quote]Hint- get ALL YOUR CASH out of bonds. They are going to crash.

and:

[quote]The rise in interest rates will destroy the construction industry.

and:

[quote]when interest rates reach late 1970s-early80s levels, please come back and explain why ROTHBARDIAN libertarians were the ONLY people who predicted, and apologize for your ignorance.

and this quote explains a lot:

[quote]Extrapolating future conditions from the past is specifically frowned on by expert economists.

Seriously? You're not supposed to learn from the past? That's so incredibly stupid that you don't even have to refute it.

and:

[quote]Now, when interest rates go higher over the next few months, and gold (since the central banks have sold all the gold they have, and now are paying to lease it back...oh, wait, R112 doesn't understand GOFO rates and COMEX exchange problems----then I should listen to her rant) begins to ascend again, and inflation picks up I will bump this thread.

Strangely enough, he never did bump the thread.

Another golden oldie, literally.

[quote]"Gold coins are cheap now. At $1700+ they are a steal. Wait until the government defaults and it will be worth 10x that. Or more."

[quote]"Gold will always pace or outpace inflation, when held over long periods."

[quote]"Gold is much safer than any other stock or commodity."

[quote]"Until the government is no longer in control of the money supply, gold will just go higher and higher."

[quote]"Gold is a hedge against major inflation. Like Weimar or Argentinian level hyperinflation."

[quote]"Gold is the best performing asset in the market."

[quote]"Gold will keep going higher and higher until the Federal Reserve quits inflating."

[quote]"Gold is still the best asset to hold compared to S&P or DJIA."

[quote]"When the dollar is worth nothing, people will still want to trade gold for food, gas, etc."

[quote]"That is why gold is not in a bubble. Trust me, I know more about this than you think you do."

Yeah, how did that work out for you, ILT? Still think you "know more about this" than we do? Tell me, what's it like to be always wrong? And what it's like to have your bullshit disproved by facts?

Back on topic, I wish I knew when we would get that market correction that we're overdue for. Last December was brutal, of course, but I'm pretty sure that we're not done. Basically, even with a highly volatile market bouncing around a lot, we've been flat for over a year now. Where is the significant market correction, the bear market, and the recession?

Economists think the next recession will hit in 2020.

R10 - hopefully that means a Democrat will take the White House!

It's cyclical - the Repugs fuck up the economy and the Dems have to clean up the mess they leave behind!

What we perhaps should worry more about than when the next recession will hit is whether we are ready for it.

[quote] I call it: The Debt before the Downturn. It shows the public debt-to-GDP ratio at a bunch of recent economic peaks. If you average this value over the past six recessions, you get about 30 percent. For our purposes, that means that when the recession hit, there was a good bit of perceived fiscal space to offset the downturn with countercyclical policies. When the next downturn hits, this ratio will almost surely be well over twice its historical average.

[quote]Consider compelling new research showing that with such high debt/gross domestic product levels, Congress will do too little to push back against the downturn. Pointing to the elevated debt level, they’ll devote too few resources to programs like infrastructure or subsidized jobs that go beyond the automatic stabilizers, like unemployment insurance. As the authors of the study found: “The fall in GDP with fiscal space is just 1.4 percent. The fall in GDP following a crisis without fiscal space reaches a maximum of 8.1 percent.”

[quote]To be clear, even at debt/GDP levels much higher than what we have now, it still pays to apply the needed countercyclical policies. In fact, other recent research shows that to not do so can make the debt ratio worse! As I like to say, when you’re in a recession, the concern should always be: Is our deficit spending large enough to offset the recession, regardless of the debt level?

[quote]But given politics, what matters here is perceived, not actual, fiscal space. And the record shows that the pattern in the above figure is one wherein the perception will be of very limited fiscal space.

[quote]Next, a key automatic stabilizer isn’t ready for the next downturn. As of the end of 2017, most state unemployment-insurance trust funds failed to meet the minimum standard for recession preparedness. In fact, 11 of these states — California, Texas, Ohio, Indiana, West Virginia, Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky and Pennsylvania — had less than half the amount recommended. California’s system is particularly weak, with $1 billion in debt to the federal government leftover from the last downturn (the state is expected to pay off the debt this year, but they then will need to build up the fund).

Add to that that the Fed hasn't been able to raise rates enough to give them a lot of breathing room and there is a very real concern that the next downturn will be as prolonged as the downturn that began in 2007. As was the case with George W. Bush and now again under Trump, the Republican Party has been insisting on building up more debt during the good times, which leaves nothing in the tank when times aren't so good.

[quote] R6: For devotees of Austrian economics, though, the definition of [italic] inflation [/italic] is "an increase in the supply of money."

This is like redefining something innocuous and common, like “walking down the street”, as “being a jackass”.

When you look out your window, you can exclaim,, “Look, there’s a jackass! We’re surrounded by jackasses!” This definition reduces the phrase “inflation” to something useless.

It’s Trumpian, the way this manipulates language to make it useless.

It's not quite that bad, R13. There is a kernel of truth in that load of gibberish that they spout. If you print money to excess and you keep doing it on a massive scale in an effort to paper over real economic problems, that really is inflationary and it absolutely can result in "Weimar-level hyperinflation." The problem for Austrian economists and our ignorant friend here is that this phenomenon is not universal. As with just about any economic discussion, it matters how much you do, how long you do it, and what the overall state of the economy is while you're doing it.

It's an economic theory that works for describing, say, Germany after WWI. But it utterly fails when describing the state of the U.S. economy since the meltdown of 2007. By their theories, we should have seen an "inevitable" (and massive) rise in prices in goods and services in the U.S. as a result of the actions of the Fed. Instead, inflation has been very much under control this whole time, which means the theories are garbage.

You can see the same thing in the discussion of the minimum wage. If someone were to be so foolish as to raise the minimum wage to $100 an hour, then yes, the dire predictions our dear friend here continually spouts would be a virtual certainty. But, again, the theory completely breaks down when it's used to describe a city raising the minimum wage to, say, $15 an hour. Any ill effects are more than offset by the other forces in the economy and the over-simplified theory breaks down.

Sadly, our dear little friend is a classic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. He simply is not smart enough to know just how stupid he really is.

R3

Google “Petrodollar”

Your ignorance of the basis of the stability of the dollar in the global market is typical for people that don’t know anything about economics.

Since the petrodollar is dying, the repercussions for Americans should be a major point of public discourse.

Without the “exorbitant privilege” of the petrodollar, living standards for the average American are going to plummet.

R16, why, you’re just a cunt, aren’t you? Yes, you are.

R4

Widgets and gadgets and dollars are economic goods.

You cannot create widgets and gadgets with a keystroke, but dollars can be created out of thin air.

The distortions created by that artificial creation of money have been mitigated by the petrodollar. Since the petrodollar is dying, the dynamics of our economy are going to undergo radical changes.

The vast majority of currently middle-class Americans will be impoverished by the collapse of value of the dollar.

The Federal Reserve is the source of this distortion, and it should be abolished.

R13

Inflation is the creation of more currency without concurrent increases in the amount of wealth.

The increase in the cost of goods caused by that initial inflation of the money supply is properly defined as inflation.

I didn’t know that Paul Krugman posted on Datalounge.

“...is IMproperly defined as inflation.”

R17

What a fantastic example of why Democrats will lose in 2020 against Trump.

Are you just too stupid to even attempt to understand complex economic phenomena?

R21 is about as illogical a post as any I’ve seen here.

[quote] The distortions created by that artificial creation of money have been mitigated by the petrodollar. Since the petrodollar is dying, the dynamics of our economy are going to undergo radical changes.

Oh, at last we have a new theory! Since the old ones weren't working out, demonstrating that his quasi-religious beliefs were, in fact, totally wrong, he's had to find something new. The fact that it's gibberish, unsupported by logic, data, or reason, will not get in his way, of course. He'll just keep tossing out "petrodollar" without ever once bothering to support this or in any way tie it to anything taking place in the real world.

[quote]The vast majority of currently middle-class Americans will be impoverished by the collapse of value of the dollar. The Federal Reserve is the source of this distortion, and it should be abolished.

Uh-huh, so you've been claiming for the past 15 years at least. Shouldn't that "collapse" have taken place by now? As for the Fed, it's been in operation for over a century. If there were a problem with their actions, we'd have seen it by now. We haven't, which means that your idiotic theories are, as usual, complete bullshit.

[quote]Are you just too stupid to even attempt to understand complex economic phenomena?

ROFL.... Oh, the irony, coming from this poster who never got past "supply and demand" in his "studies" of economics and is completely incapable of understanding, much less discussing, "complex economic phenomena." Free clue: blindly regurgitating something you read on another site does not demonstrate "understanding." It just marks you as a fool.

[quote]Inflation is the creation of more currency without concurrent increases in the amount of wealth.

No, dear, it's not, no matter how much you wish it to be. I know you have your own private definition of inflation but there is a reason that nobody else has adopted that definition: it's stupid.

[quote]The increase in the cost of goods caused by that initial inflation of the money supply is properly defined as inflation.

Except for that one teensy little inconvenient fact that we've had a massive increase in money supply with no increase in the cost of goods. Hence, your little theory, and your pet definition, is wrong.

You have no answer for this, of course, so you'll either ignore it or just trot out one of your usual litany of childish insults. It's just one of the ways you give yourself away, over and over again.

[quote]What a fantastic example of why Democrats will lose in 2020 against Trump.

We'll put this right next to your prediction that Republicans were going to gain seats in the House in 2018. How did that work out for you?

I think the Fed is letting their bond holdings expire, as the do in small tranches, without replacing them, which they were doing during the last decade. This would incrementally reduce the money supply.

Just news you can use.

Did the ILT do a Snoopy dance during the 2008-2009 crash? I can imagine it.

Well, considering that he always, without exception, predicts doom and gloom, R27, he was practically having an orgasm that there was actual visible doom and gloom. Of course, as is usual with him, he carried it too far since he wanted this to be a true apocalypse. Reading some of his posts in 2010, 2011, and 2012 was hilarious as he kept insisting that the economy couldn't possibly be improving, the gold bubble couldn't possibly be popping, and inflation couldn't possibly be not happening.

He never has been very good with reality. And when reality disagrees with his quasi-religious economic views, he'll take his views every time, to hilarious effect.

“I think the Fed is letting their bond holdings expire, as the do in small tranches, without replacing them, which they were doing during the last decade. This would incrementally reduce the money supply.”

Your incredibly sophisticated analysis is persuasive.

Dunning Kruger at work. .

ILT, you actually don’t have a clue what you’re writing about. You just have some mental need to insult people, so you use this topic as an excuse to do so. Yet, you don’t ever explain what your actually writing about, because, I don’t think you know.

Hmm. Boeing crashes are weird. That stock is insanely priced over $300 a share. WS is very vulnerable with five bad days in a row.

Household net worth falls by the largest amount since the Great Recession, new Fed data shows.

[quote]Yet, you don’t ever explain what your actually writing about, because, I don’t think you know.

He doesn't. We've got over a dozen years of data on this. He is incapable of a serious discussion. All he can do is parrot something he read on zerohedge or mises and when that is challenged, he resorts to his usual litany of insults. I'm surprised he hasn't called someone a "cunt" yet, as he usually assumes that if you dare to disagree with him, you must be female.

[quote]The Experts Keep Getting the Economy Wrong

Quoting from the link:

President Trump likes to brag about the supposedly booming economy. So do other Republican politicians. Some journalists have gotten into the habit too, exaggerating the strength of the economic expansion, because it makes for a good story.

Here’s the truth: There is no boom. The economy has been mired in an extended funk since the financial crisis ended in 2010. G.D.P. growth still has not reached 3 percent in any year, and 3 percent isn’t a very high bar.

Last week, while attending an economics conference in Washington, I discovered one particularly clear sign of the economy’s struggles — namely, that it keeps performing worse than the experts have predicted. I put together this chart to show the trend:

R34, I see two reasons for this that are not related to the evidence:

People, forecasters, have a tendency to be positive in outlook, general.

Obama was so during the crash, but I think it was in an attempt to “build confidence”, as it can be self-fulfilling.

The market seems fueled now by any whiff of good news. What happened to bears who were put on TV in December and January? Now they seem back to painting a rosy picture.

Anyone know what came out of the Fed today? The market went from being down over 200 to now being up. The intra day chart ahows a line straight up so some news must have come out.

The Fed is not planning to raise rates for the rest of the year to try and avoid the inevitable recession. The markets went down because they know everything is overextended, including the bull market.

Also, Trump said something like °Chinese tariffs will remain for a while°. That pushed the market down.

Yes, R38

The Federal Reserve has capitulated.

Like Japan, the EU, and China they have embarked on a course of capital consumption that will leave the world poorer.

Negative interest rates are only possible when you have a positive capital position.

Those negative interest rates eat up the accumulated capital, like a farmer eating seed corn. We have been consuming capital instead of creating it for nearly 2 decades.

As with everything you've written on this thread, Idiot Libertarian Troll, you're 100% wrong, not to mention stupid. The Federal Reserve hasn't "capitulated." They've done exactly what they are supposed to do and what they've done countless times in the past: react to changing economic conditions. In stronger times, they raise rates and pull money out of the market; in weaker times, they lower rates and put money into the market. The counter-cyclical behavior has reduced the number, the length, and the depth of economic slowdowns since they began implementing those policies.

At least it did until Alan Greenspan chose to abandon those policies in the run-up to the Great Recession. The fact that you have no understanding of this at all, that you don't know anything about economics, has been made abundantly clear over the years you've been posting here. Nothing you have predicted has ever come to pass. A smarter individual might have learned from those failures.

Apple up 4% today.

Some Frau on MSNBC just said 90% of people are underwater relative to the crash. 10% are overwater (is that a word?) Including inflation.

I’m doing better, I think.

IMHO market is in denial

Underwater relative to 2007/2008, R43? Seriously?

Apparently some recession indicator is signaling a global recession, which is parly why we're down today.

Yes, R45, that’s what the talking head said. People do the exact opposite of what they should. Sell in a panic when the market is down, or buy when it is up.

I still see a recession ahead, soon. I thought in 2019, but maybe 2020. It will be weird because it has been so long since the last one.

I graduated during the early 1980s recession and had a lot of trouble finding relevant work. My brother and sister, too. Then I graduated grad school during the 1989 recession, and also had trouble finding work, again, I read that those recessions, in New England, were as bad as the later 2008 crash, as far as jobs go.

R48 Get away from me.

You're bad luck.

Dow down 460 today. Donnie Darko’s magic touch

Bank stocks took a beating.

Deficit also hit a record.

The yield inversion won’t last.

Money supply growth is phenomenal for this time of the year, propping the system up for a few more months/quarters.

Sorry girl, you can’t just keep printing money.

If there will be a recession, it should kindly show up before the election.

Pretty sure it will, r55.

That's why fat Donnie is pressuring the Fed and hoping his lying liars continue to lie for him. Otherwise, once people figure out what's coming, they will turn on him

Aren’t we at a tipping point? The market is near an all time historic high. Corporations are using debt to prop up stocks, while only 30% of Americans have $1000 saved. It’s going to crash.

Yes, R57, and we have been at a tipping point for some time. But that tipping point is dependent at least as much on personal psychology as it is on economic and financial fundamentals.

As long as people are convinced that the economy is going well and that the market will continue to go up, they'll continue spending money and they'll continue to buy stock. When they decide that things aren't going so well, they'll start holding onto their money and selling their stock and we'll have a market correction and recession.

The trouble is that nobody can predict just what the tipping point will be or when it will occur. Some thought that last December was that tipping point but clearly that wasn't the case. A downturn is inevitable but nobody knows when or how much.

I thought the market would selloff with Trump ‘s election. Not, of course.

R59, it didn't crash because it was known that Trump favors deregulation, which is good for markets but bad for humanity.

This period feels incredibly unstable. No knows what is happening with EU or tariffs. Has Larry Kudlow ever issued a business plan? No. The incompetence is shocking but so are traders trying to woo cash.

First quarter earnings season is expected to be a rough one as companies will have been fully impacted by the tarrif war this quarter.

Yes. And when will people realize Trump is a Russian stooge? They want us to fail along with EU. People with money are big on cash now for good reason.

[quote] when will people realize Trump is a Russian stooge?

Huh?

Show me the report!

New highs with big deficit! Who hoo!

[quote] New highs with big deficit! Who hoo!

Didn't you hear ? Defecits don't matter.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, (D-N.Y.), told Business Insider last month the notion that the government needn't worry about balancing its books should be “a larger part of our conversation.”

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Congress’s current system of finding savings to offset spending increases “doesn’t make any sense.” It is “clear that we need to rethink our financial accounting for the United States,” she said.

“There’s no question in my mind but that [the idea is] gaining traction, just based on my inbox, my voicemail,” said Stephanie Kelton, a leading proponent of a new theory behind deficit spending who served as an adviser on Sen. Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign. She pointed to an uptick in inquiries from Hill staff, members of Congress and journalists.

It's called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). It's unproven and it sounds dangerous.

My issue is that interest rates are so low that people and corporations are insanely racking up debt. So much so that if anyone talks about even slightly raising rates, there is an emotional meltdown. Once the free flow of cash and credit abates, the stock market will belly flop.

Is AOC’s plan to print more money, give it away, and grow deficit? Not understanding that theory.

Dick Cheney famously said, the Reagan said or proved, that °deficits didn’t matter° So, we’ve been here before.

R69

A decade of interest rates below inflation have been devastating for the world economy.

The top 0.01% to have benefited immensely, a factor of hundreds.

The top 0.1% have octupled their wealth.

The top 10% have doubled their wealth.

The top 0.01% are the real enemy. They are the ones that live in gated unity with billions of dollars that they used to brainwash the average person.

The problem is that the dollar is only valuable as long as the world community requires dollars to buy petroleum. That well has run dry, and purchases of oil in non-dollar transactions is becoming commonplace.

When the dollar is no longer the reserve currency, the standard of living of the United States will drop dramatically.

Word is out the outer fringe of the bubble is about to burst.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq just closed at record highs. Those of you predicting an imminent crash have some 'splainin' to do.

And do you think record highs are sustainable? Hope that works out.

Question for our resident money managers and financial advisors: I’m all cash. How and when should I get in the market? You’d wait, wouldn’t you? Should I start dollar-cost-averaging now, or wait a year?

Personally I would wait. A melt up of late investors will be ugly.

I wouldn't spend much time waiting. Trying to time the market has historically been useless. It can't be done. The one sure thing is that by sitting in cash you are losing value.

[quote] And do you think record highs are sustainable? Hope that works out.

We have a very good garden.

I have to disagree that all your cash should be newly invested when the market is at a historic high. I don’t know anyone that would recommend that. You could lose all your money when the market tanks, which can happen on the turn of a dime.

R80, that's a good point but I think it also depends on the time frame for when you want to cash out. If I'm new to investing and it's going to be 30 years or more before I'm going to be taking any money out, I'm fine with buying now, even if there's a major correction in the next six months.

Good luck gambler!

Hmm this melt up is fascinating. It seems like he a cash grab for rich people until Trump’s thrown out or arrested.

Futures down 450 points after China threatens to pull out of trade negotiations after Trump said he wants new tariffs.

OMAHA, Neb. (Reuters) - The chief executive of Brooks Running, part of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc, said his company will shed much of its presence in China by moving running shoe production to Vietnam, a result of the trade dispute between China and the United States.

About 8,000 jobs will also move to Vietnam from China, Weber added.

Vietnam is emerging as a preferred destination for companies looking to move production because of tariff concerns.

Interesting, r85. Still sucks for exporters though.

[quote]You could lose all your money when the market tanks

All? What are the odds of investing in a portfolio of companies that all go bankrupt and whose share price is reduced to zero?

The market is fucked. Trump screwed the pooch with China. It’s all a bubble about to burst.

Weeee! Enjoy the slide!

US-based networking company Netgear is exploring manufacturing opportunities in India and will start manufacturing its products by 2020, said its CEO Patrick Lo. The decision to shift its manufacturing hub from China is in the light of on-going US-China trade war.

I wouldn't buy anything manufactured in India; it's more shithole-ish than China.

R87, yeah right? Only if you panic sell will you lose “all your money.” Hang tight and buy more if your stocks tumble this week.

Not the worst drop ever.

I wonder if all these companies moving out of China also has to do with the IP theft that's been happening.

R92 = commissioned stock broker. If R92 had been alive on 10/29/1929, he'd have told his own mother to hang tight and buy more stocks and if he thought it would make him a buck or two.

It's true, r94. It's only a paper loss and the market has always recovered.

Just print more money until a crash!

I bet all these companies are secretly happy. Trump is giving them an excuse to drop China and run to an even poorer third world country to have their materialistic trash made for even cheaper. It's always about the mighty dollar with these people. Those jobs are never coming back to the U.S. Any Trump supporter who thought so is a fucking idiot.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Approval of President Donald Trump's job performance remains relatively high for him following the release of special counsel Robert Mueller's report in late March, and amid a flurry of positive economic news. After jumping from 39% in early March to 45% in the first half of April, Trump's approval rating held at 46% in a new Gallup poll conducted April 17-30.

Trump's breakthrough with Americans in April, with his job score essentially reverting to his term high point after some rocky months, likely reflects two factors: perceptions that claims of any wrongdoing in the 2016 election have been squelched, and some important economic improvements. As such, these two factors will also likely determine his 2020 reelection potential.

If the economy hums along in the coming year, Americans' confidence in his and other leaders' economic management may buoy Trump's approval rating past the 50% mark.

Barack Obama’s job-approval rating was 44 percent in Gallup polling at the same point in his presidency (April 2011).

----------------

I lost money on this. I had futures contracts his RCP average would fall today.

R96

Venezuela is just a preview of what America will look like when the massive monetary disruptions created by the federal reserve finally manifest.

The dollar is only valuable because it simplifies oil purchase transactions. That day is ending. Without reserve currency status, the dollar will lose value quickly.

Another day, another drop.

[quote]Venezuela is just a preview of what America will look like when the massive monetary disruptions created by the federal reserve finally manifest.

You've been saying that for at least the past dozen years, Idiot Libertarian Troll. The Fed is doing the same thing it's been doing for decades. If such "massive monetary disruptions," which you do not (and cannot) define, were going to cause any such issues, they would have already happened by now.

Better to be thought a fool than to continue to post here and prove it.

Not looking good. Shades of 2006.

Now under 26,000

We kind of did the same thing yesterday. Fell 471 before somewhat recovering to only down 66 points. The broader markets did similar.

Nasdaq down 2%

600 point drop bitches. Here we go again.

A surprise Fed rate hike is also playing into the drop.

Probably reaction to Trump's China trade posturing.

What "surprise Fed rate hike?"

Fed came out either yesterday or today and said they may hike rates sooner than what they previously indicated.

It's the bombs Trump is throwing on trade. Our incompetent and irresponsible criminal President doing his best to screw up the only thing that is not screwed up right now. That said, with every additional day he remains President, the downstream effect of his exploded deficit will ensure that when the slowdown finally comes- we will have no recourse to correct it. He's just giving away revenue to corporate American and the 1%. I ought to know- I'm well into that 1% due to family wealth and his new tax laws are reaping us millions.

It was obvious they were going to try to blame the Fed and the chair.

Do you have a link r110?

It was from Harker's speech yesterday, r112. I'll try to find a story that's not behind a paywall.

This is about as good a summary that's free, r112...

What the hell is CCN?

Anyway, this has to do with the messy admin not the even-keeled Fed.

Yeah, it definitely doesn't involve the Fed. Here's a better story on what Harker said. It's about as innocuous as you would wish for:

[quote]Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said Monday that recent weaker inflation data has not altered his view that the appropriate path of monetary policy would be for one interest-rate hike, at most, this year. While inflation has softened, Harker said he suspect some of the weakness is "transitory," and he still expects it will run slightly above the Fed's 2% target over the medium term. "If any component of the outlook were to affect my view on the appropriate path of monetary policy, it would be inflation. However we're not there yet," he said, in a speech to a conference sponsored by the Global Interdependence Center. The Philadelphia Fed president, who is not a voting FOMC member this year, said the strong first-quarter GDP reading was a "pleasant surprise," but said it is possible the drag usually seen in first quarters in recent years will show up in the second quarter. For now, Harker said he was sticking with his view that the economy will grow "a little above 2%" this year.

Same for Fed Vice Chairman, Richard Clarida:

[quote]“We don’t see a strong case to move rates in either direction,” Clarida told Bloomberg television, largely echoing comments made last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. “Monetary policy is in a good place right now.”

It’s all a house of cards. Only naive people think the stock market will never crash.

Yeah the poster that tried to smear and blame the Fed is a troll. That is the current right wing lie of the minute.

Funny how easily you found that link when the troll had to search high and low and use some obscure propaganda site. I mean really.

Seriously, r119? I'm the Op of Part 2 of these threads and have been on DL for a very long while. This is a discussion forum, no? Not everyone is a troll. Feel free to disagree with my source, but you need to get your facts straight when calling people trolls.

“We kind of did the same thing yesterday. before somewhat recovering to only down 66 points.”

Wrong!

“A surprise Fed rate hike is also playing into the drop.”

Fake News!

“Fed came out either yesterday or today and said they may hike rates sooner than what they previously indicated.”

Completely made up from whole cloth!

All these “facts” that are dead wrong are too similar.

R122, really? Are you trying to tell me that the market didn't drop 450 points on Monday only to recover to being down 66? Really?. At the time I posted the "we kind of did the same thing yesterday" the market was hours away from closing and I was saying that we dropped over 450 the day before but still managed to recover. Are you saying that the market didn't drop then recover in your world on Monday?

As for the Fed stuff I posted... I read an article in the WSJ about Harker saying he expects on rate hike this year and another next. I commented on the surprise rate hike here, was asked for a source and gave CCN. You have any further issues about rate hikes then I suggest you contact the WSJ or CCN and tell then what you think. Maybe they'll care more than I do.

Typical. Useless left wing democrats would soil themselves if the economy took a hit. Hurting Trump is more important to them than the welfare of their fellow citizens.

Nothing to see here, just republicans wiping out all of Obama’s gains, just as Bush did Clinton’s.

Thank god democrats have been around to come in and clean up after irresponsible and superstitious republicans and their illogical policies.

With this administration, it doesn’t matter if it skyrockets to 30,000 tomorrow: we’re fucked.

Until we get new leadership, all the money in world won’t make a difference because it all goes to the same 10 people.

"Typical. Useless left wing democrats would soil themselves if the economy took a hit. Hurting Trump is more important to them than the welfare of their fellow citizens."

You've got it backwards. We are willing to take a short term loss in our own savings to stop trump from destroying our democracy.

How did you stumble onto this website, r124?

R124 Log Cabin bitch, time to take your schizo paranoid meds.

[quote] I commented on the surprise rate hike here,

Except that there was no "surprise" in anything Harker said.

[quote]Thank god democrats have been around to come in and clean up after irresponsible and superstitious republicans and their illogical policies.

It's getting harder, though. Republicans are better at destruction than Democrats are at fixing. We're back to trillion-dollar deficits at a time when the economy is on the upside of the business cycle. At a time when we should be paying down this deficit, Republican tax policies have made it worse. It's going to be horrifying when the inevitable downturn hits, tax revenues fall, and the safety net needs increase.

The Republican answer for everything, "tax cuts!!!!", is proving to be devastating to the long-term health of our economy. The next step in this process will be the gutting of the safety net, which they've already publicly announced is on their agenda, to gut Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security, in particular, because, hey, those billionaire tax cuts don't pay for themselves, despite Republican promises that those tax cuts would, in fact, pay for themselves.

The failure of their economic policies isn't what's depressing, though. What's depressing is how many people they've managed to fool about their economic policies. We already know, beyond any reasonable doubt, that their policies suck at both the state and federal level. We've got fifty years of data to prove it. And yet you still have a sizable number of people who will close their eyes and blindly vote for the very policies that are destroying their livelihood and their safety net. "What's the matter with Kansas?" indeed.

Everything was down early on but most of the indices are back to near even right now. Expect volatility this month.

R94, I’m not a registered broker, mongoloid. I just understand that stock price is different than stock value. I know you don’t understand that, because if you did, you wouldn’t have put on your tin hat. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

R130, I find it hard to believe that you are so perfect in life that you can stand in judgement of others. As I said up thread, I'm the Op of part 2 and have made numerous comments in all three Dow threads, none of which have been called into question. Yet because of select comments I made about rates here that you are holding onto like an Aspie, suddenly I'm branded a troll. Get over it.

R134, I didn't brand you a troll. I'm simply pointing out that your comments about the Fed on this specific thread were incorrect. If you are so terribly sensitive about criticism of that nature, I suggest you find another hobby and stop posting online.

Yes, r135, repeatedly. And it's ironic that you're telling someone to find a hobby. Is being judgemental yours?

I'm "repeating" because you keep trying to defend yourself rather than simply acknowledging that you got it wrong and moving on.

Is being hyper-sensitive to criticism and refusing to admit mistakes your real hobby? In which case, great! You'll fit right in here.

Thanks for admitting that being judgemental is a hobby. Now I know why you feel the need to repeatedly scold. And, again, it's ironic that you call someone hypersensitive. It seems to work both ways.

Dear heart, I'm having fun with you. Someone so completely clueless and so completely obsessed with exposing themselves as a fool? That's irresistible.

Oh, and I'm not "scolding" you; I'm simply pointing out that you were wrong. And that a 20-second Google search would have shown you that you were wrong.

B3ing an Internet scold is "fun for you"? Get a life..

So let's see: I posted a couple of articles in r116 and r117 to demonstrate that your explanation that the Fed was involved was incorrect, that there was no "surprise rate hike" and that Harker hadn't called for one. You chose to take offense and to get all pissy about "Internet scolds," after which, yes, it became fun. Hilariously so. And you continue to make it even better with each new post.

Wow, this thread seems fun.

Wag that finger, r141! Shake your tiny fits into the air and stamp those clown feet and demand the DL good poster award for posting articles! And with that, you are now on ignore.

Fair enough, R142. I'll stop playing with the poor fool, although I did love the very public "you are now on ignore," like that's supposed to be a threat or a punishment?

Back on topic: as predicted, high volatility today as the market can't seem to make up its mind

There is going to be major panic selling by Friday.

Yet again, the Dow is hugely overinflated. It should not be this high. Period. And the market is correcting.

And down again today, currently at -390.

That's been obvious for some time, R146, but what we don't know is when it will fall, how much it will fall by, and how long the downturn will last. December was horrible but that correction didn't last. Will the May correction be the tipping point?

Objectively, the market is looking for Trump for indications of whether to rally or fold in this outsized bubble. Since we know he is always a loser in the art of the deal, this means millions will lose money. Wall Street is just trying to pump up and old tired whore who has been out on the street for ten years and needs a break.

700 points down today.

I think we'll see a -1000+ close today.

Wall streeters, what’s going on?

The market has lost all confidence in Trump. Crackpot conservatives are calling for an all out trade war, even though it is hurting farmers and businesses. Tariffs do NOT create Monet for the U.S. They add to the cost of imports, which the Chinese just pass on to buyers who in turn raise prices due to increased cost. Markets crave stability. Trump has been promising a deal for months and now people realize there never was a deal to begin with. No one is talking about the deficit crunch that will also hit this summer. It's a giant mess all caused by Trump and his ugly greedy cronies.

PS, the trade imbalance has actually increased under Trump. I can't emphasize enough the serious damage that he is causing.

But his stupid rubes won't care.

Frankly, every last fuckwit shitstain who voted for this traitor needs to feel everlasting financial pain until they either die or come to their senses.

Most of them will probably die and I am ok with that.

Trump is even talking about giving the “money from tariffs” (which doesn’t exist) to farmers. Isn’t that socialism? His stupidity is boundless. The man has NO business or economic acumen.

China is the cartoon who takes the football away. Trump has no deal and it is a very bad sign that traders are following him. Twitter does not stabilize the economy.

[quote]The man has NO business or economic acumen.

Which is why he will never release his tax returns.

Exactly! He is just a fat duck in orange paint. I feel an obligation to warn younger people to not get burned. 700 points becomes a much larger number easily when stocks are extremely overpriced.

Damore exposed the cult of groupthink at Google.

Kudos.

Is anyone optimistic about the stock market? It seems like it’s one inch away from another big drop. There is NO clear direction on the economy. Why on earth would anyone buy now? The outflows of money from equities is growing.

R160

Greater fools.

Deutsche Bank is the G-SIB domino.

Global Systemically Important Bank

G-SIB

Yeah, but see, you're the Idiot Libertarian Troll, R161 and R162, and you're always wrong, as we've seen time and time again, so we can safely ignore your predictions.

All the major indices are down again today. Most sites are claiming that it's the trade war making investors nervous.

We're also going into a holiday weekend during a period of uncertainty so traders don't like to keep a position.

Will we go under 25,000 this week?

I always thought it would settle around 20,000-21,000

We're hitting end of May which means people stop buying, plus the China war seems to be escalating with no end in sight. Put your orders in for the lowest amount imaginable. I have though all year that the market will return to December lows or worse.

Did anyone else notice Trump gave $18 billion to farmers in welfare? There are also some really bad figures out about how many Americans are near homeless if they don’t get a regular check. 40%. I wonder if the market cares. It feels like ETFs are keeping it in life support. Down for several weeks.

And did everyone notice that we're paying for it? He insisted that it was the revenue from the higher tariffs that he's using but China doesn't pay that extra revenue: everyone in the U.S. does.

Slowdown coming.

[quote]U.S. manufacturer growth hit a multiyear low in May, the latest sign that the trade war may be slowing the economy.

[quote]The U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) was 50.6 in May, the lowest level since September 2009, according to results from financial data firm IHS Markit released Thursday.

[quote]“Growth of business activity slowed sharply in May as trade war worries and increased uncertainty dealt a further blow to order book growth and business confidence,” said Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief business economist.

[quote]U.S. overall business activity growth also faltered to a three-year low as the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index dropped to 50.9 in May, indicating the slowest expansion since May 2016.

I have also seen estimates that GDP growth will slow to 1%. The above is one of the many myths promulgated by Bad Donnie - that tariffs create cash money for the treasury. They don’t create any money. There is no fund that collects tariff money. Aren’t the deplorables sick of his lies too?

Gee, who does this benefit?

So U.S. consumers are paying a tax to the U.S. government in the form of higher prices for imported goods. Some of those funds are circulated back into the economy as emergency aid — but it’s not going back to all the consumers who paid the tariffs. Nor is it certain that the tariff revenue is actually going to the trade war victims: The government is running a deficit, caused in considerable part by the tax cuts enacted in December 2017, which largely benefited corporations and the wealthy. Arguably, it’s their tax breaks, not the losses of soybean farmers, that are being subsidized by Trump’s tariff revenue. Moreover, because the farm losses are due to foreign, not domestic, tariffs, no revenue at all is coming to the United States as a result. The bailouts are our expense, completely. That’s another way in which the tariffs are paid not by China but by “us,” Mr. Trump. See how it works?

Forecast

Irresponsible, baseless scare-mongering.

Dow up 500 points.

Bump

Still seems primed for a fall. Between the Fed and China, Rump is running out of options.

Some warning signs:

[quote]The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that May saw a slowdown in net new additions to payroll and made downward revisions to earlier numbers released for March and April — clear signs that job growth has slowed. Unemployed workers are finding it increasingly difficult to land new jobs, with the share of unemployed workers on the hunt for more than six months rising. Unemployed women are more likely to drop out of looking for jobs than land a job in the following month.

...

[quote]The U.S. economy is more fragile than it has been at this point in any previous economic expansion. Though this expansion only needs one more month to be the longest in U.S. economic history, a record number of households are more than 90 days late on their car loan payments. The sale of existing homes continues to fall to new lows, reflecting the difficulty for younger workers to form new households and transition from renters to homeowners. Their low earnings, low savings and high student debt compared to earlier generations all factor in here.

The linked article also points out that we're less ready to handle a major downturn than in previous scenarios, with unemployed insurance funds, for example, not having sufficient resources to handle the influx of claims and states having insufficient resources to withstand a downturn and still keep vital services and infrastructure running.