Up big one day, down big the next.
Continue the discussion.
Hello and thank you for being a DL contributor. We are changing the login scheme for contributors for simpler login and to better support using multiple devices. Please click here to update your account with a username and password.
Hello. Some features on this site require registration. Please click here to register for free.
Hello and thank you for registering. Please complete the process by verifying your email address. If you can't find the email you can resend it here.
Hello. Some features on this site require a subscription. Please click here to get full access and no ads for $1.99 or less per month.
Up big one day, down big the next.
Continue the discussion.
by Anonymous | reply 600 | March 10, 2019 2:39 PM |
Not sure why the link to the previous thread isn't working. Here's the link.
And today we're down close to 600 on fears that the China tariff war will heat up again.
by Anonymous | reply 1 | December 4, 2018 5:17 PM |
Casino. C A S I N O.
by Anonymous | reply 2 | December 4, 2018 5:23 PM |
Bush is being interviewed at Wall Street Journal executive event
Home Markets U.S. & Canada Market Snapshot GET EMAIL ALERTS Dow sinks nearly 600 points as U.S.-China trade, falling 10-year yield spook investors
Published: Dec 4, 2018 12:36 p.m. ET
An inverted yield curve has been an accurate predictor of recessions
AFP/Getty Images
By
SUE CHANG MARKETS REPORTER
CHRIS MATTHEWS MARKETS REPORTER
U.S. stocks accelerated losses Tuesday afternoon as skepticism over the significance of an agreement reached by the U.S. and China to postpone new tariffs mounted and as the market digested a flattening yield curve in U.S. government debt.
How are the benchmarks faring? The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.31% skidded 552 points, or 2.1%, to 25,268, while the S&P 500 index SPX, -2.35% dropped 61 points, or 2.2%, to 2,728. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -2.72% tumbled 200 points, or 2.7%, to 7,243.
What’s driving the market? Skepticism surrounding the U.S. and China’s ability to achieve a concrete deal to avoid new, or expanded, bilateral tariffs is rising, as investors focused on the lack of specific concessions made by China at last weekend’s G-20 meeting in Argentina where President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met.
While the U.S. agreed to a 90-day moratorium on threats to raise tariffs on more than $200 billion in imports to 25% from 10%, a comparison of official statements from Chinese and U.S. officials suggests there may be a long way to go before the two camps are able to come to an agreement that can ease tensions more permanently.
Meanwhile, confusion spread Monday night over when exactly the 90-day timeline would begin after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow mistakenly stated that the negotiating window would begin on Jan. 1, 2019. The White House later put out a correction, stating that it began on Dec. 1.
The flattening of the U.S. yield curve is also weighing on sentiment as yields on government debt continued to fall. On Monday, the yield on five-year government debt slid below the yield on three-year debt, a phenomenon which has preceded previous recessions, and a sign that investors are more confident about current than future economic growth as the Federal Reserve raises rates.
by Anonymous | reply 3 | December 4, 2018 5:24 PM |
Do people who invest in stocks just wear DEPENDS everyday?
by Anonymous | reply 4 | December 4, 2018 5:29 PM |
The broader market indices are just tanking. It's ugly today.
by Anonymous | reply 5 | December 4, 2018 5:32 PM |
Down over 700 points
by Anonymous | reply 6 | December 4, 2018 5:34 PM |
S&P 500 Index−64.72 (2.32%)
Nasdaq Composite−227.82 (3.06%)
Russell 2000 Index−51.37 (3.32%)
NYSE Composite Index−265.98 (2.11%)
NYSE Arca Oil Index−18.59 (1.39%)
by Anonymous | reply 7 | December 4, 2018 5:36 PM |
Now down 800 and falling. Hold on!
by Anonymous | reply 8 | December 4, 2018 5:42 PM |
Trump tried to buy higher stocks by caving to China. Hah!
by Anonymous | reply 9 | December 4, 2018 5:47 PM |
What goes up must come down.
by Anonymous | reply 10 | December 4, 2018 5:48 PM |
Luckily the markets are closed tomorrow for the funeral.
by Anonymous | reply 11 | December 4, 2018 5:48 PM |
The super wealthy will start buying again. Don't worry about that. Of course their workers will actually be the ones who pay.
by Anonymous | reply 12 | December 4, 2018 5:53 PM |
Trump destroyed us with his tariffs and it will not be fixed so easily.
by Anonymous | reply 13 | December 4, 2018 5:55 PM |
Oh lord, CNN has rolled out Richard Quest to cover the story...
by Anonymous | reply 14 | December 4, 2018 6:02 PM |
Doesn't Quest also cover plane crashes?
by Anonymous | reply 15 | December 4, 2018 6:06 PM |
I'm all for the crash if this means the real estate market will follow. People are sick of rent hikes and being priced out of cities while apts sit empty.
by Anonymous | reply 16 | December 4, 2018 6:08 PM |
We will survive Trump. I have a considerable portfolio. I never change the strategy of my very level headed investment strategy. I just avoid monitoring too much because it makes me anxious and I'm not going to bale. Investing in markets is long term. You rarely (never) really go wrong if you invest long term. Try to have a strategy to be able to hang in there when markets drop (work for instance!) When I retire I will be living off the income from my investment accounts. Their value will fluctuate and so will my income. But I stay with it. In general, all my life- it has worked out.
by Anonymous | reply 17 | December 4, 2018 6:09 PM |
Looks like a bit of a rebound.
by Anonymous | reply 18 | December 4, 2018 6:10 PM |
I'm in the same boat, r17. Although it's more than a bit disconcerting to see big drops even if it is just on paper.
by Anonymous | reply 19 | December 4, 2018 6:13 PM |
The inverted yield curve doesn't look good for the economy. It's an indication of a recession.
by Anonymous | reply 20 | December 4, 2018 6:19 PM |
R17, same boat, though I'm nowhere close to retiring. My mom, who knows nothing about investments, only sees the headlines and then badgers me about my risky 'gambling' with stocks. I am a lifelong index fund investor. She's convinced that I'm constantly worried and stressed about my investments. I tell her I don't follow the market's ups and downs at all but she's is sure I'm just putting on a brave face. I'm not. I didn't know anything about today's events until I saw this thread. It's not pleasant news I admit--but I just accept that sometimes the market goes up and sometimes it goes down. And when it goes down, if you have the cash, you buy low.
Longterm data has shown it's better to be in the market than not. Of course a black swan event could happen and blow all past performance data to smithereens but I don't think it's feasible to grow your weath/save based on a monumental black swan event. If something happened that blew away my investment that much--I figure it would be bad for everyone. And the world would be so fucked, having or not having a few dollars probably wouldn't make that difference. Not at my wealth level anyway. I grew up food stamp poor and have managed to get up to the middle-class level with a bit of savings. I'm not rich enough to foolproof myself against a catastrophic economic downturn.
by Anonymous | reply 21 | December 4, 2018 6:35 PM |
Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 both down ~4%.
by Anonymous | reply 22 | December 4, 2018 7:39 PM |
Michael Specter
@specterm
Hey @realDonaldTrump, or, as you prefer, tariff guy. Nice work. You rock. Dow Jones Industrial Average 25,025.73 −800.70 (3.10%)
by Anonymous | reply 23 | December 4, 2018 8:12 PM |
So it’s down -1200? Ouch!
by Anonymous | reply 24 | December 4, 2018 10:50 PM |
Went Down the Shitter
by Anonymous | reply 25 | December 4, 2018 11:03 PM |
Asian markets are trading lower.
by Anonymous | reply 26 | December 5, 2018 2:12 AM |
We also hope you're not going to bail, R17.
by Anonymous | reply 27 | December 5, 2018 2:17 AM |
Squirm-inducing.
by Anonymous | reply 28 | December 5, 2018 2:17 AM |
I'm with R17, and with most advisors. Have a diversified portfolio and invest in low-cost index funds and then stay the course. Stocks will go up and down and there's nothing you can do about it. Anyone who tries to guess the market may have one or two successes but you will have more failures and a lot more stress.
by Anonymous | reply 29 | December 5, 2018 2:23 AM |
Looks his the Hawawei CFO arrest is having a ripple effect.
by Anonymous | reply 30 | December 6, 2018 2:48 PM |
Opps make that Huawei's CFO. Down again. 550 and dropping.
by Anonymous | reply 31 | December 6, 2018 2:50 PM |
Enough already. Get rid of this ignorant orange fucker.
by Anonymous | reply 32 | December 6, 2018 3:05 PM |
She is Huawei ceo’s daughter. Her father is one of the most powerful men in China . The ripple effect gonna be huge
by Anonymous | reply 33 | December 6, 2018 3:07 PM |
Treasury yields are rising as investor move into treasuries as a safe haven. Not looking good.
by Anonymous | reply 34 | December 6, 2018 3:08 PM |
Who will Cheeto the ugly and Mitch the uglier blame now?
by Anonymous | reply 35 | December 6, 2018 3:09 PM |
The Huawei exec was detained in Canada. A little help pushing us over the cliff?
by Anonymous | reply 36 | December 6, 2018 3:14 PM |
Yes, the US government asked Canada to do this.
by Anonymous | reply 37 | December 6, 2018 3:17 PM |
[post redacted because linking to dailymail.co.uk clearly indicates that the poster is either a troll or an idiot (probably both, honestly.) Our advice is that you just ignore this poster but whatever you do, don't click on any link to this putrid rag.]
by Anonymous | reply 38 | December 6, 2018 3:22 PM |
Facebook granted some tech firms full access to its user data as it sought to cultivate lucrative business ties with them — long after it said it was dropping the practice because of privacy concerns, according to an explosive cache of secret documents and emails.
The social networking giant put companies like Netflix, Airbnb and Lyft on a special “white list” to sidestep privacy policies it had strengthened in 2014 and 2015 to protect its users, according to the documents, which were made public Wednesday by a UK Parliament minister.
by Anonymous | reply 39 | December 6, 2018 3:23 PM |
Col. Morris Davis
@ColMorrisDavis
28m
DJIA has plunged nearly 10% since October, highest trade deficit in over a decade, budget deficit approaching $1T a year, soaring national debt ...@realDonaldTrump created a sugar high economy and sugar high euphoria doesn’t last long before it ends in a crash. pic.twitter.com/hvZExd102l ·
by Anonymous | reply 40 | December 6, 2018 4:19 PM |
We are all the Trump Taj Mahal.
by Anonymous | reply 41 | December 6, 2018 6:10 PM |
We should be filing for bankruptcy soon.
by Anonymous | reply 42 | December 6, 2018 6:20 PM |
I got out in mid September. My financial advisor thought I was crazy.
If you are in the market for another 10 - 15 years, you can ride this out. But if you are less than 10 years to a hoped for retirement or semi retirement, you're kinda fucked.
I could not afford to lose everything like in 2008 because it has taken me 10 years to get back to where I was before the market tanked. I don't have 10 years to recover from another crash. So I moved to more bonds and cash. Glad I did.
by Anonymous | reply 43 | December 6, 2018 6:26 PM |
Does your financial advisor manage your portfolio or is it self managed, r43?
by Anonymous | reply 44 | December 6, 2018 6:59 PM |
At the rate we are moving up, the Dow may actually close in positive territory today.
by Anonymous | reply 45 | December 6, 2018 7:51 PM |
I did really well from “quantitative easing” about 2013. Especially QEIII. There was no knowing that III would follow the pattern of the two previous QEs, but I expected it would and invested very aggressively, and put my sister’s money in partly aggressively. She made over 53% in two years, I recall. I did better, though I don’t recall numbers. And that was in the middle of a bull market.
Now, I’m 2/3 in cash. I sold off piecemeal over the course of this year. I hate to do that. It’s generally a bad idea to “bet against the American economy”, but things are in trouble right now:
The bull market has some stocks overpriced.
The Mueller investigation will result in political instability, and the market hates uncertainty. Trump will only leave kicking and screaming. He’ll fight it.
The tariffs are a bad idea.
Rising interest rates will do what they do.
Trump is ignorant, willful, and emotional.
So, there will be money to be made or lost. I really can’t predict which. I’m betting on lost, over the next few years, but if I’m wrong, then there will be lots more money to be made!
by Anonymous | reply 46 | December 6, 2018 9:34 PM |
R44, he manages. I tell him what to do.
He thought I was nuts converting to cash and bonds while the market was hot. But you want to sell HIGH. Now I don't look so loony.
Stocks will go lower next year so I am going to sit out for a while.
by Anonymous | reply 47 | December 6, 2018 10:44 PM |
R43, how much do you pay him to manage you money % wise?
If you are telling him what to do, why don't you just do it yourself?
by Anonymous | reply 48 | December 6, 2018 11:15 PM |
Do you have a financial background, r43? Were you in individual stocks, funds, bonds?
by Anonymous | reply 49 | December 6, 2018 11:54 PM |
Anyone have any experience with Raymond James financial advisors?
by Anonymous | reply 50 | December 7, 2018 12:21 AM |
R50 Raymond James advisors are expensive you can do much better with index funds. Stay away from Edward Jones as well.
Do a search on Raymond James on the Bogleheads site.
by Anonymous | reply 51 | December 7, 2018 12:33 AM |
Some mutual funds companies, such as Fidelity, make fund distributions today. That means you can figure your tax situation and adjust, as needed. But BEWARE, they can make additional distributions later. One year, a fund of mine made an early December distribution and then made a small one again, on Dec 29. Messed things up for me, a bit.
by Anonymous | reply 52 | December 7, 2018 2:13 PM |
Thank you, R53. Ouch! But it’s too late for my investments, except that, “distribution wise”, Monday may be a good day to get in. I haven’t really thought about it.
by Anonymous | reply 54 | December 7, 2018 2:32 PM |
Now what? We were up an hour ago. What happened?
by Anonymous | reply 55 | December 7, 2018 2:59 PM |
Dow down 590, 2.4% at 3:20 pm. Heading for a bad ending to a bad week.
by Anonymous | reply 56 | December 7, 2018 7:22 PM |
If you have money in a pretax IRA that you’ve been thinking of converting into a Roth IRA, it’s best to do it when the market is down.
Note that the conversion is taxable, but if the market is down, the sum taxed is smaller. Assuming that the market rebounds eventually, if it does so within the Roth, the gain is not taxed. It’s a better option than doing the conversion than when the market is up, I believe.
by Anonymous | reply 57 | December 7, 2018 7:28 PM |
Good points, r57.
by Anonymous | reply 58 | December 7, 2018 7:31 PM |
A White House economic advisor just commented on two signs of upcoming recession by saying, “oh, fogettabout that”, “nothing to see here”. I don’t know why they bothered to interview someone with such a bias.
by Anonymous | reply 59 | December 7, 2018 7:41 PM |
Was it Navarro or tbe Fox News guy, r59?
Thanks for the tip, r57.
Tis the season for tax loss selling too. So it may get a lot worse in the coming weeks.
by Anonymous | reply 60 | December 7, 2018 7:45 PM |
Neither, R60. It was a guy on the WH Council of Economic Advisors, interviewed on Ali Velshi on MSNBC.
R60, You’re welcome. I think it’s too early to do the Roth conversion, as I think the market will continue to fall, but we’ll see. I want to do so, but need to wait until after Jan 1 anyway.
Thank you, R58.
by Anonymous | reply 61 | December 7, 2018 7:57 PM |
Does anyone know, when mutual funds make their year-end distributions, I am curious about their timeliness. They will have calculated distributions in about an hour (after Friday closing), but I’ll bet it was calculated much earlier. Even days earlier. Anyone know how that works? Ty.
by Anonymous | reply 62 | December 7, 2018 8:02 PM |
R62, Fidelity is making theirs today.
by Anonymous | reply 63 | December 7, 2018 8:09 PM |
Dow futures for Monday down about 200.
by Anonymous | reply 64 | December 10, 2018 1:01 AM |
I wa expecting worse, r64.
by Anonymous | reply 65 | December 10, 2018 2:04 AM |
Monday Morning Moos, down a third!
by Anonymous | reply 66 | December 10, 2018 2:38 AM |
Futures only down 100 now, so improvement there.
by Anonymous | reply 67 | December 10, 2018 11:37 AM |
May even open in positive trrritory.
by Anonymous | reply 68 | December 10, 2018 1:23 PM |
My NASDAQ stocks are up about 0.4%, but overall, I’m down about the same amount, -0.4%.
by Anonymous | reply 69 | December 10, 2018 2:29 PM |
Heading south again. Down over 500.
by Anonymous | reply 70 | December 10, 2018 3:07 PM |
Hells bells, who sneezed?
by Anonymous | reply 71 | December 10, 2018 3:16 PM |
May delayed the Brexit vote, the S&P is about to break a support level and China upped the trade war by saying Apple can't sell older products in China because they infringe on Qualcomm patents.
by Anonymous | reply 72 | December 10, 2018 3:35 PM |
Banks are doing terribly today on concerns of a global recession.
by Anonymous | reply 73 | December 10, 2018 4:45 PM |
It just looks like there’s no stability. Europe and Asia are weak, I hear.
by Anonymous | reply 74 | December 10, 2018 6:19 PM |
Today's Dow futures up 250.
by Anonymous | reply 75 | December 11, 2018 11:29 AM |
What was the trade news that came out?
by Anonymous | reply 76 | December 11, 2018 2:29 PM |
I saw that China was gonna LOWER the trade tarriffs on US made cars to 15%
by Anonymous | reply 77 | December 11, 2018 3:09 PM |
Trump threatened to shut down the government if more money was not allocated towards building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.
"I have been around for not quite 80 years and I have never seen anything like this … and the stupidity to let it go on," said Art Cashin, director of floor operations UBS. He added that the televised exchange increases uncertainty around the projects will move forward in a divided government. "It doesn't look like the
by Anonymous | reply 78 | December 12, 2018 1:07 AM |
Dow futures up 160. I'm not seeing that this correction has any legs. The market might just remain relatively flat for a while.
by Anonymous | reply 79 | December 12, 2018 11:19 AM |
That's actually good news, r79.
by Anonymous | reply 80 | December 12, 2018 1:36 PM |
I believe, I’m not sure, but believe, that Fidelity’s reporting of its mutual fund performance is based only on reported price, and ignores distributions and capital gains. Can anyone confirm or not?
I’m also looking for a resource that includes those distributions in reported returns. Especially over a long period they make a huge difference and without a resource, reported returns really mean nothing. Thanks,
by Anonymous | reply 81 | December 12, 2018 11:19 PM |
Now what?
by Anonymous | reply 82 | December 14, 2018 2:25 PM |
Now the Dow is down about 450 points, R82.
by Anonymous | reply 83 | December 14, 2018 4:19 PM |
I haven't been following it too closely today, r83. Is there any reason given for the drop or is it a matter of traders wanting to go into the weekend flat.
by Anonymous | reply 84 | December 14, 2018 7:33 PM |
R84, slowing global growth, with emphasis on China.
by Anonymous | reply 85 | December 14, 2018 7:55 PM |
What’s amazing is how well the market has held up, despite the recent volatility. But that may changing. The S&P 500 looks like its ready to test 2600, before going after the February and April lows around 2580. If those break, it could mean trouble. Evercore ISI’s Rich Ross, however, notes that the market has already broken when looked at from the inside. ”While critical support continues to hold, the Index is already broken internally with the Financials, Energy, Industrials, Transports, Truckers, Retailers, and Russell all making new lows, while only the commensurate rotation into Defensives has prevented a nominal breakdown below well-defined support,” he writes.
But that could come any day now.
by Anonymous | reply 86 | December 14, 2018 8:12 PM |
"Opinion: Stock investors, you have now been warned for the last time"
[quote]There are six warning signs that the bull market in U.S. stocks will soon be over
by Anonymous | reply 87 | December 15, 2018 12:07 AM |
And so it begins...down 155.
by Anonymous | reply 88 | December 17, 2018 2:52 PM |
Down close to 500. Worst December since 1980.
by Anonymous | reply 89 | December 17, 2018 7:02 PM |
I’m being skewered. Despite having moved 70% into cash, earlier. Haven’t seen today’s report yet.
by Anonymous | reply 90 | December 17, 2018 8:58 PM |
A rise in interest rates and government shutdown will really be the cherry on top.
by Anonymous | reply 91 | December 17, 2018 8:59 PM |
The Dow is on the verge of a death cross. If / When that happens the market will free fall.
by Anonymous | reply 92 | December 17, 2018 9:04 PM |
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Monday in a volatile session that saw the major benchmarks whipsawing between losses and modest gains in early trading, before investors began selling aggressively Monday afternoon into the close.
The selloff helped drive all three major benchmarks deeper into correction territory, and it marked the worst performance month-to-date in December since 1931 for both the S&P and the Dow.
by Anonymous | reply 93 | December 17, 2018 9:07 PM |
Nasdaq wiped out all of this year's gain with today's drop.
by Anonymous | reply 94 | December 17, 2018 9:47 PM |
R91 and Fed’s decision coming up this week, was it Wed?
by Anonymous | reply 95 | December 17, 2018 10:36 PM |
I think the tariffs, the trade wars and the Mueller investigation are driving this down. Has trump bragged about his role in the stock market lately?
by Anonymous | reply 96 | December 17, 2018 10:50 PM |
Oops, tariffs should be interest rate hikes
by Anonymous | reply 97 | December 17, 2018 10:52 PM |
volatile large swings in the market indicate major trouble ahead.....it was what happened in 07/08 before the crash.
by Anonymous | reply 98 | December 17, 2018 11:40 PM |
Fasten your seat belts!
by Anonymous | reply 99 | December 17, 2018 11:47 PM |
I'm fucked. Not only have I made no gains at all this year, but I have lost about 30,000 as of today.
by Anonymous | reply 100 | December 18, 2018 12:21 AM |
Hopefully it's just a paper loss, r100.
by Anonymous | reply 101 | December 18, 2018 12:23 AM |
that's why I got the fuck out in September, r100.
My advisor kept telling me not to pull out but I don't have 10 years to make up for another crash.
It took me 10 years to recover from 2008. To get back where I was when the market crashed that time.
Ain't nobody got time for that. I want to retire. Not Keep hanging on hoping to recover my losses.
by Anonymous | reply 102 | December 18, 2018 12:53 AM |
Asian stocks lower ahead of Xi speech. Xi to deliver a speech shortly that is expected to address the trade war. Tomorrow will be interesting in our markets.
by Anonymous | reply 103 | December 18, 2018 1:28 AM |
Market rebounds a bit. Up 300.
by Anonymous | reply 104 | December 18, 2018 2:35 PM |
Where is it now?
by Anonymous | reply 105 | December 18, 2018 6:59 PM |
Back underwater (down 50)
by Anonymous | reply 106 | December 18, 2018 7:01 PM |
S&P and Russell are down now. Not seeing anything specific on why the reversal.
by Anonymous | reply 107 | December 18, 2018 7:23 PM |
Today's Dow futures up 223.
by Anonymous | reply 108 | December 19, 2018 11:37 AM |
I'm down another 5,000 from last week.
~ r100
by Anonymous | reply 109 | December 19, 2018 4:28 PM |
FB is the worst. I hope the stock tanks big time.
by Anonymous | reply 110 | December 19, 2018 4:37 PM |
Ugh, r109. You must be wealthy. Are you concentrated in any one sector?
by Anonymous | reply 111 | December 19, 2018 4:39 PM |
recession next year. I heard a few days ago that China is giving its workers 3 months (not paid) off for Chinese New Year next year. Doesn't look good.
by Anonymous | reply 112 | December 19, 2018 5:09 PM |
Along with their best wishes for a happy and not so prosperous New Year
by Anonymous | reply 113 | December 19, 2018 5:13 PM |
Good news / bad news out of the Fed? Is the expectation of only two rate hikes next year good news or are we looking at further drops in the market?
by Anonymous | reply 114 | December 19, 2018 9:05 PM |
Global markets are in for a rough ride. Europe is facing a financial crisis with a potential collapse of the banking system. Germany's market is aready down 20% since January.
China's economy is expected to dip into a recession, which will mark its first downturn in decades. A tighter fiscal/ monetary policy will limit spending and lower consumer demand willmhave ripple effects around the globe.
Growth in the US economy is expected to slow in 2019 with markets continuing to decline on the global turmoil and lower corporate profits. Washington gridlock will also negatively impact the market as any meaningful stimulus coming out of Washington will be nonexistent due to the hostility between the parties.
So, yup, get out while you can or be prepared to stay put for a few years
by Anonymous | reply 115 | December 19, 2018 11:25 PM |
[quote]Ugh, [R109]. You must be wealthy. Are you concentrated in any one sector?
I'm not wealthy, but I have a decent sized nest egg that I have been living off of since my mental illness became too debilitating for me to work. I have not ever had to live off the state in any way (thank God) and I have a good life as long as I live frugally.
After the recession in 2008, I didn't think I would be looking at another one so soon.
TMI, I know, but I don't like giving the impression that I am wealthy when I'm not!
by Anonymous | reply 116 | December 19, 2018 11:29 PM |
I think a lot of younger people, those 30 and under, may erroneously think that 15% to 25% stock market returns year after year are normal. Despite the crash of 2008-2009. The stock market recovery from it was rather quick and very strong. The market could easily fail to meet their expectations for years ahead, and that’s going to cause problems for lots of such people.
I discussed the market with my brother this week, and he independently came to the same conclusion - potentially the worse market in over a decade, in the horizon.
by Anonymous | reply 117 | December 20, 2018 1:33 AM |
I don’t think people realize it can only go down filirther. Corporations primarily used the tax cuts to buy back stock - that only benefits shareholders. The new jobs are going to be cut as soon as their profits shrink. The deficit and consumer/corporate debt are way too high. I don’t want it to happen but I think we could enter another Great Depression. The whole US is in debt.
by Anonymous | reply 118 | December 20, 2018 1:51 AM |
I've read conflicting info on the US going into recession. Quite a few reports cite the strenght of the economy as delaying a recession until late 2019 or 2020. I've even read a few analysts say we may not go into recession that we will see slower growth and a down market but that consumer spending (except for housing and autos) and government spending should make up for a decrease in business investments. The rationale behind consumer spending remaining strong is that it includes government transfers like medicaid and social security.
by Anonymous | reply 119 | December 20, 2018 2:20 AM |
Aren’t we already entering slower growth and a down market? Americans are in denial and think they can just spend more on their credit cards.
by Anonymous | reply 120 | December 20, 2018 2:57 AM |
I hear what you are saying, r117, but I don't think Millennials and younger are as heavily invested in the market as GenX and Boomers were at their age. We had the tech bubble in the late nineties the aughts when it seemed like the market was unstoppable until it stopped.
IIRC individual investing nowhere near the levels it was prior to 2008. People in general just aren't investing.
by Anonymous | reply 121 | December 20, 2018 4:41 AM |
Here are some stats on stock investments over time, r117.
by Anonymous | reply 122 | December 20, 2018 4:47 AM |
The stock market is primarily for rich people but also mutual fund holders. That covers a lot of people. A bear market was inevitable. Trump is flat out of options and even deplorables will turn on him when they have no government aid or jobs.
by Anonymous | reply 123 | December 20, 2018 4:50 AM |
The stats in r122 do cover mutual fund holders and 401k plans, r123. Oyou are correct in that ownership, direct and indirect, is up among those making 100k and those in their 60s. It's down for everyone else.
by Anonymous | reply 124 | December 20, 2018 4:54 AM |
Someone like Warren Buffet, worth billions, says to not panic... stay in the market, ride it out. Losing millions, to him, is nothing.. and won't hurt him with his vast fortune. The average investor... losing thousands is a big deal, especially for retirees. That's a big bite out of our nest egg, for the rest of our lives.
by Anonymous | reply 125 | December 20, 2018 4:55 AM |
*Buffett*
by Anonymous | reply 126 | December 20, 2018 4:57 AM |
For young people, that seems scary. They don’t save or invest. Do they think that they will get a reality show?
by Anonymous | reply 127 | December 20, 2018 4:58 AM |
short FB! you will make money for sure!
by Anonymous | reply 128 | December 20, 2018 5:17 AM |
Broader markets are mostly higher with Nasdaq down slightly. The Dow is off sharply on a Walgreens earnings miss and concerns that a global action against China regarding IP will result in further trade woes.
by Anonymous | reply 129 | December 20, 2018 3:02 PM |
r126, life is a Buffett, and most poor suckers are starving to death!
by Anonymous | reply 130 | December 20, 2018 3:23 PM |
All the indices turned to shit again. I'm not seeing anything specific aside from China and a global response to IP theft and concern that Trump will veto the temporary budget.
by Anonymous | reply 131 | December 20, 2018 3:33 PM |
Anyone know what's going on? We've been dropping and rising by 100 point ticks all within a minute. We were down nearly 300 and one tick was a hundred point drop then a 75 point print and two ticks later we were down only 250.
by Anonymous | reply 132 | December 20, 2018 3:59 PM |
Is this all electronically driven? I mean, do people really react this strongly to the market, because of a .25 percent interest rate increase next year?... or trump's stupid tweets and the tariffs? How can the market be this volatile in seconds... minutes? Are there key words programmed in the system that trigger computer driven ups and downs? I don't understand this...
by Anonymous | reply 133 | December 20, 2018 4:04 PM |
With this volatility, I understand that people will start selling off in a panic... but, this all happens so quickly.
by Anonymous | reply 134 | December 20, 2018 4:06 PM |
A lot if it is electronically driven r133. Basket trading, program trading and indices will be triggered based on a number of things. But typically they don't cause a zig zag in a matter of seconds.
by Anonymous | reply 135 | December 20, 2018 4:11 PM |
I hate that we are so globally connected... and anything that happens on the other side of the world, could still tank the market....even if we are good here, in the US.
by Anonymous | reply 136 | December 20, 2018 4:18 PM |
Panic selling!!
by Anonymous | reply 137 | December 20, 2018 4:42 PM |
Trump just refused to sign the spending bill.
by Anonymous | reply 138 | December 20, 2018 5:45 PM |
All the major indexes and oil are in a free fall because of the budget impasse. Many Republicans in the Senate have already gone home, so I don’t know how they’ll pass another bill before the deadline.
by Anonymous | reply 139 | December 20, 2018 6:01 PM |
Yup, Dow broke through 23,000, Nasdaq is in a bear market and S&P is just 5% away from a bear market.
by Anonymous | reply 140 | December 20, 2018 6:03 PM |
Dow, s&p on pace for worst year in a decade, according to CNBC. Nasdaq hits bear market.
by Anonymous | reply 142 | December 20, 2018 7:24 PM |
It’s fucked up thanks to Trump. His legacy will be causing a rapid stock rise followed by a rapid crash. This man went bankrupt several times so it’s well known he is a shitty businessman. Re: Wall, are Republicans really that stupid to add $5 billion to the deficit? What happened to fiscal responsibility? Morons.
by Anonymous | reply 143 | December 21, 2018 12:54 AM |
Dow Futures are higherr indicating an implied opening of +175.
Third Quarter GDP was revised downward .1% to 3.4%. The economy has slowed considerably from the second quarter, which grew at a rate of 4.2%.
Durable goods orders in October, rose 0.8 percent but still under consensus for 1.4 percent. Aircraft orders accounted for the rise. Consumer and business spending continued to be lower due to the Trump's tariffs.
The spending bull impasse, trade war with China and the slowing economy will continue to weigh on the market.
by Anonymous | reply 144 | December 21, 2018 1:11 PM |
After Mattis, who I hate, resigned but who was seen as last adult in WH and gov shutdown at midnight more chaos will come. Markets hate chaos and we will see lots red on Wall Street.
by Anonymous | reply 145 | December 21, 2018 1:17 PM |
R136, the rest of the world shares your sentiments about global connectedness right now, because if the markets tank it has a lot do with the stupidity of your elected leader.
by Anonymous | reply 146 | December 21, 2018 1:28 PM |
Are we really “good” here in the US? Credit card debt is at an all time high and so is the deficit.
by Anonymous | reply 147 | December 21, 2018 4:07 PM |
R136, yes, we are up to eyeballs in debt, and there really is no such thing as a stand-alone economy.
by Anonymous | reply 148 | December 21, 2018 4:21 PM |
R145, why do you hate Mattis?
by Anonymous | reply 149 | December 21, 2018 4:30 PM |
The looming shutdown is killing the market again today.
by Anonymous | reply 150 | December 21, 2018 4:56 PM |
R149 He worked for Trump is reason enough.
by Anonymous | reply 151 | December 21, 2018 6:35 PM |
Leading HiTech down about 3% today. That’s a disaster.
by Anonymous | reply 152 | December 21, 2018 7:27 PM |
The market is down 6% or 1500 for the week. Merry Fucking Christmas and Seasons Fucking Greetings.
by Anonymous | reply 153 | December 21, 2018 8:12 PM |
It’s only going to down more? What is the incentive for a rally when growth is slowing and they can’t make a deal with China? I read this today by Sally Kohn and it is a perfect summation:
So, instead of building a pointless wall, we could spend money on the things that are actually hurting all Americans -- opioid addiction, stagnating wages, crumbling roads, failing public schools and lack of access to affordable health care.
by Anonymous | reply 154 | December 21, 2018 8:15 PM |
I like this ine by David Andelman...
The #DJIA closing out its worst week in TEN YEARS ... @realDonaldTrump closing out the most catastrophic Presidential week in American history. CONNECT THE DOTS!! www.cnbc.com/2018/12…?
by Anonymous | reply 155 | December 21, 2018 8:24 PM |
The whole run up in the market when Donald became president was fueled by expectations that the administration was going to be good for business. Instead of doing infrastructure spending and buying products from American firms they just gave a hand out to corporations in the form of tax cuts. Now all of the stock buy backs are baked in and Trump is facing a Democratic controlled House, where all spending bills have to originate, the market will do nothing but go down. Next year will not be a good year for the market.
by Anonymous | reply 156 | December 21, 2018 8:51 PM |
Cheeto took all the credits when markets were high, now he should take all the blame. But he doesn’t. He always blames others. Shutdown wall China trade wars. All blame should be on him.
by Anonymous | reply 157 | December 21, 2018 8:53 PM |
I don't know if I completely agree with you, r156. The markets were already doing well under Obama and an improving economy had a lot to do with it. If the trade war concludes soon and we don't have prolonged shutdown then we should see a market rebound.
by Anonymous | reply 158 | December 21, 2018 9:06 PM |
I'm so happy when this happens. Capitalism, go fuck yourself.
by Anonymous | reply 159 | December 21, 2018 9:09 PM |
I don't even know where to start with people like r159.
by Anonymous | reply 160 | December 21, 2018 9:16 PM |
Good luck with that rebound prediction. Most economists are predicting the market will continue to struggle.
by Anonymous | reply 161 | December 21, 2018 9:19 PM |
I think the market will remain unstable. Here are the drivers, as I see it. Hope I don’t forget any, there are so many:
Rising interest rates.
Pointless, foolishly contentious trade wars.
Over-priced stocks after long bull market.
Slowing economies in Europe and Asia
Brexit
Government shutdown.
Instability in foreign policy.
The government shutdown and foreign policy are really subsets of the broader problem of having an incompetent, ignorant, fool as President. Consider: Trump says he makes decisions by his “gut”. But on what is his “gut” basing its decisions? He doesn’t read, doesn’t listed to briefings, doesn’t listed to experts. He just watches TV. The most fact-free channels.
There remains the question if he is actively acting against American interests and for Russian, Turkish, and Israeli interests only. Oh, and Trump personal interest, of course. But not American interests.
The Mueller investigation and other investigations will lead to further uncertainty, and the market hates uncertainty.
If you want to save the American economy and bull market, this boil must be lanced.
by Anonymous | reply 162 | December 21, 2018 9:25 PM |
Thank you ^
by Anonymous | reply 163 | December 21, 2018 9:27 PM |
I hate this!!... but, I'm holding on. I have cash reserves/money market funds to last about a year. My stock holdings are under 30%. I'm retired... and this is stressful!
by Anonymous | reply 164 | December 21, 2018 9:27 PM |
Not to the tune of 1500 points in a week, r161. We should see a rebound from the oversold condition we are in now if the trade war and shut down end soon and then more of a softer landing with a slowing economy. The economists aren't talking about weekly 1500 point losses. These are shock events..
by Anonymous | reply 165 | December 21, 2018 9:28 PM |
Ouchie!
by Anonymous | reply 166 | December 21, 2018 9:31 PM |
Oh, look, Rodger Stone has joined and he's spreading FUD.
by Anonymous | reply 167 | December 21, 2018 9:31 PM |
I think I heard that with the sell off, not a lot of buying is happening. People are wary of jumping in, buying stocks at lower prices, which hurts the market further.
by Anonymous | reply 168 | December 21, 2018 9:32 PM |
Oops, wrong thread!
by Anonymous | reply 169 | December 21, 2018 9:33 PM |
r162
by Anonymous | reply 170 | December 21, 2018 9:34 PM |
R165, Mueller's report is rumored to be coming in February, which could unleash a whole new round of uncertainty and selling. No one knows what is around the next corner with this unpredictable administration.
by Anonymous | reply 171 | December 21, 2018 9:35 PM |
I just lost 15 percent of my investments. Trump is now doing to the country what he did to the people who worked for him. I'm thinking of alternative savings plans for the next couple years at least.
by Anonymous | reply 172 | December 21, 2018 9:37 PM |
Well, precious metals are the usual goto safe haven, r172.
by Anonymous | reply 173 | December 21, 2018 9:39 PM |
[quote] R162: But on what is his “gut” basing its decisions?
Oh, I forgot, he has said that he “consults with himself”. He has said that he’s a “stable genius”, has a “very, very large brain”, and “one of the great memories of all time". That’s saying something, isn’t it? I wonder if we’re paying for consultation fees?
by Anonymous | reply 174 | December 21, 2018 9:46 PM |
R164 I am retired too but have held off drawing SS until age 67. I may start the process this next year(age63) to avoid continuing to draw on my assets.
Trump is a nightmare. Many of his followers would be applauding this market correction as necessary to "break the libs backs"
by Anonymous | reply 175 | December 21, 2018 9:48 PM |
His fees are very high.. we're paying bigly. Tanking stock market, the tariff trade war with China, alliances with our adversaries...pulling away from our allies, climate change reversals, and it keeps going.... we're paying dearly.
by Anonymous | reply 176 | December 21, 2018 9:52 PM |
R172, R173, Gold Bugs have wrecked the idea of investing in precious metals for me. I do know that Gold generally doesn’t kept pace with inflation, despite the reputation as a safe haven. Maybe it was a “safe haven” in the Depression; or in Germany during WWI and WWII. But not in modern times. I avoid it. I’d stick with Treasuries, other bonds, or savings accounts.
But more importantly, I think R172 should change his strategy. He should move his existing savings to safer investments now. Then, assuming prices continue to fall, over “the next couple years”, he should be slowly buying into the market, while it is down. In this way, he sells (relatively) high, and buys low, which is what we all want to do.
It would have been better if he had already gotten out of the market, but who knows, the market could drop another 20% and that really won’t be that unusual of a correction. So selling today might still be “high”, in retrospect. This kind of “unknowable” is what makes the markets dance.
by Anonymous | reply 177 | December 21, 2018 10:00 PM |
r177, r172 here. I'm already going safe.
by Anonymous | reply 178 | December 21, 2018 10:08 PM |
I meant to add that big market swings bring out the exact opposite impulses from those that are prudent.
When stocks fall dramatically, its natural to want to get out, when maybe, it’s the time to either hang on doing nothing at all, or to start buying into the depressed market.
When stocks soar, its natural to want to buy more, to get even more profits from more invested money. Instead, it might be wiser to pull some money out, while things are “high”.
The hardest part is in accurately identifying what is “high” and what is “low”.
Warren Buffett has said “Be greedy when others are fearful; and fearful when others are greedy.” Easy for him to say!
by Anonymous | reply 179 | December 21, 2018 10:08 PM |
The safe haven concept isn't meant to keep up with inflation. It's a place to park your money in something relatively "safe" while the market sorts itself out.
by Anonymous | reply 180 | December 21, 2018 10:23 PM |
USA today ran an article the other day showing that people over 60 typically have money invested in the market. Younger people typically do not.
And who do people over 60 usually vote for in large numbers? That's right, the GOP.
So these goddamned greedy hateful motherfuckers have screwed themselves and it serves them right.
I just wish the innocent investors didn't have to suffer for their greed and bigotry.
by Anonymous | reply 181 | December 21, 2018 10:39 PM |
R181 not greedy and hateful here, but over 60. I lived and worked thru SO many crashes and being young and un-invested , working for slave wages, I could have cared less during those crisis periods. But now it is unsettling as my retirement in addition to SS is tied to the market. You might be there too one day . But yes many a deplorable will get burned, if that makes you happy.
by Anonymous | reply 182 | December 21, 2018 10:44 PM |
I know, r182. You are one of the innocent ones I referred to in my post.
I have zero pity for deplorable investors or businesses who backed this grifter.
by Anonymous | reply 183 | December 21, 2018 11:08 PM |
R181... Don't speak for me. I'm over 60 and didn't vote for trump, or any repub.
by Anonymous | reply 184 | December 21, 2018 11:13 PM |
So when is the public finally going to stop with the "republicans are the party of fiscal responsibility" nonsense? Or when will people finally stop believing the nonsense that lower taxes mean greater wealth?
by Anonymous | reply 185 | December 21, 2018 11:16 PM |
R182, how is SS tied to the market.
by Anonymous | reply 186 | December 21, 2018 11:25 PM |
R186 I didn't punctuate properly "my retirement, in addition to SS, is tied to the market"
But don't forget GWBush wanted to wrap it all into the market back in his day
by Anonymous | reply 187 | December 21, 2018 11:35 PM |
Warren Buffet is an asshole, and an example of the "I got mine, why can't you get yours?" culture in the US.
My uncle is one of the guys he hangs out with in NE. He doesn't have nearly as much money as Buffet, but he LOVES Trump after voting for Obama.
by Anonymous | reply 188 | December 21, 2018 11:41 PM |
R188, I’ve never heard Buffett expressing anything like that. He still lives in the same middle-class house as he has for decades. Drives an old car. He lives humbly, and has pledged to give most of his wealth away. Sure, he like to work, and he’s good at it, but that alone doesn’t make him a jerk.
by Anonymous | reply 189 | December 21, 2018 11:46 PM |
R187... Wow, wrapping SS into the market? What a disaster! No worries, it's not tied into the market. We just have to worry about repubs trying to dissolve it.. and Medicare.
by Anonymous | reply 190 | December 22, 2018 12:11 AM |
R186, I think R182 was saying that part of his retirement is SS and the other part is tied to the market.
by Anonymous | reply 191 | December 22, 2018 12:14 AM |
I'm 64, have never voted for a Repug, and am scared shitless my life savings is going down the drain.
Carry on!
by Anonymous | reply 192 | December 22, 2018 1:30 AM |
Another 30% drop is likely.
The growth in M2 money supply has been anemic all year, and without new money being printed and loaned, the capital structures cannot continue.
A decade of Federal Reserve and worldwide central banks “saving the economy” has destroyed price discovery and made rational investment for older people impossible.
Our society is poorer because the gov bailed out the banks instead of letting them fail, liquidate and restructure, eliminated zombie debt and then printing trillions more for a “buffer”.
by Anonymous | reply 193 | December 22, 2018 2:00 AM |
I don't think we've hit bottom yet, but there are some stocks that are starting to tempt me. Take Key Bank (KEY), a boring little regional bank. It's been hammered down from the low 20's to 14 and change. More importantly it's now paying a 4,75% dividend, and as far as I can see that dividend is safe unless the whole system collapses, and if that happens we're all selling apples on the street corner anyway.
Hell, it could go to 12 before it's over, but that dividend will keep you happy until it recovers, and in 5 years I think you'll be glad you bought it.
by Anonymous | reply 194 | December 22, 2018 2:13 AM |
From Bloomberg’s White House reporter: Trump discussing firing Jerome Powell over interest rate hikes.
This is the absolute WORST thing that he could do, at the absolute WORST time he could do it. If he so much as even gives the suggestion in public that this is on his mind, the markets go into a free fall.
by Anonymous | reply 195 | December 22, 2018 12:12 PM |
Even diversification isn't helping...
With that, all three major indexes have registered the largest one-week percentage decline since late 2008, with the Nasdaq Composite now in bear territory—more than 20% down from its latest peak.
The S&P 500 isn’t that far behind from entering that territory. Five sectors within the index are now in bear markets, and this has never happened before outside of a full-blown bear market, writes Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Group on Friday. During the 2011 and 2016 corrections, only four and three sectors, respectively, fell by 20% or more.
Not only the S&P 500, other corners of the market are also badly scathed. 2018 has been one of the worst years even if someone’s portfolio is properly diversified, according to Ramsey. The Leuthold Group has built a hypothetical portfolio called All Asset No Authority (AANA) that invests in seven asset classes with equal weight: the S&P 500 index (U.S. large-cap); Russell 2000 index (U.S. small-cap); MSCI EAFE index (other developed markets); real-estate investment trusts; 10-year Treasury notes; the S&P GSCI index (commodity); and gold.
by Anonymous | reply 196 | December 22, 2018 3:14 PM |
The only good thing about the bear market is knowing just how angry it makes Trump.
by Anonymous | reply 197 | December 22, 2018 3:38 PM |
[quote]Dow Plunges 414 Points Because Stocks Are Stuck Between a Wall and a Hard Head
FTFY Barron’s
by Anonymous | reply 198 | December 22, 2018 7:18 PM |
So Monday has the potential to he ugly. Low volume as it's a half day and the Senate adjourned until Thursday so the shutdown will continue until at least then equals another down market.
by Anonymous | reply 199 | December 22, 2018 8:01 PM |
I have lost $12,000 in two weeks in my 401k. I don't even have a lot in it. It's the only retirement I have and well, i don't know how I'm going to survive.
by Anonymous | reply 200 | December 22, 2018 8:08 PM |
No, r197. What's great about a bear market is seeing the bears lose their shirts.
by Anonymous | reply 201 | December 22, 2018 8:16 PM |
I think there will be a lot of tax loss harvesting between now and the end of the year.
by Anonymous | reply 202 | December 22, 2018 8:31 PM |
It's not time to go crazy buying stocks yet. I just looked and I own 24 stocks. Of those (and this is from memory) 20 of the 24 are still higher than they were the day after Trump won the election and the euphoria kicked in.
I think we'll get down to maybe 1/3 to 1/2 of them higher than they were that day before its over. That's when I'll be interested in buying. Until then I think I'll just quietly and wait for Trump to do to the economy what he did to his casinos.
by Anonymous | reply 203 | December 22, 2018 8:49 PM |
Mulvaney said on This Week tyat the shutdown couod go into 2019. That would suck for the markets.
by Anonymous | reply 204 | December 23, 2018 6:57 PM |
I hear you, r200.
by Anonymous | reply 205 | December 23, 2018 6:59 PM |
My guess is we are looking at another 20-30 percent drop. Even if the markets rally in January, I still don’t see any long term growth prospects.
by Anonymous | reply 206 | December 23, 2018 7:20 PM |
R200, are you retired? If not, how old are you?
by Anonymous | reply 207 | December 23, 2018 8:07 PM |
R200 always sad to read when someone’s losing his savings because of markets. You need to think your options and make logical decisions.
by Anonymous | reply 208 | December 23, 2018 9:11 PM |
I read Mnuchin called bankers today to tell them not to panic and the economy is doing great. That to me says panic.
by Anonymous | reply 209 | December 23, 2018 9:17 PM |
U.S. stock futures fell slightly shortly after the open of trading Sunday evening as the market attempts to rebound from a brutal week that pushed the S&P 500 to the brink of a bear market.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 33 points shortly after the open of trading Sunday evening. S&P 500 futures declined by 0.2 percent.
by Anonymous | reply 211 | December 24, 2018 1:45 AM |
Yikes, R210. Talk about how not to handle this situation.
It’s embarrassing watching them make every wrong move time and time again. Isn’t the best time to panic when someone says, “Don’t panic?”
by Anonymous | reply 212 | December 24, 2018 2:15 AM |
I don’t get his actions. Sure Trump blames him and he is trying to look proactive, but he’s making people worried that there may be a sudden run on banks and a collapse of the credit market. Idiots. I don’t have a good feeling about any of it.
by Anonymous | reply 213 | December 24, 2018 2:41 AM |
R209
Panic?
That’s Putin talking.
American Central Planning Bank has all under control, comrade!
Americans will be fine if dollar loses half value!
It will be like Rouble!
by Anonymous | reply 214 | December 24, 2018 4:49 AM |
So what's next? Real estate crash?
by Anonymous | reply 216 | December 24, 2018 5:11 AM |
R26, a correction at minimum.
by Anonymous | reply 217 | December 24, 2018 5:18 AM |
Ugh. The wheels are off and we are about to flip over in the ditch.
by Anonymous | reply 218 | December 24, 2018 5:27 AM |
6:51 a.m. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst week in a decade, but was trying to make up some lost ground on a holiday-shortened Monday.
S&P 500 futures have risen 0.5%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures have advanced 87 points, or 0.4%. Nasdaq Composite futures have gained 0.8%.
It’s not like we can find a reason for the holiday cheer, as the weekend news didn’t appear terribly uplifting. Reports suggest President Donald Trump would like to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had spent his vacation calling the CEOs of the major U.S. banks to ensure enough market liquidity was available. Neither should make investors feel quite comfortable. And remember, the stock market closes at 1 p.m. today.
So why are stocks rising? NatAlliance Securities’ Andrew Brenner offers one word: reallocation. “This week is not rocket science,” he writes. “It is the end of the year...which means it is the end of the quarter and the end of the month... What do we always see when one asset class makes a big move, or two make inversely related moves? A reallocation... I don’t have to look up how much equities got crushed in the latest time period, so expect reallocation from bonds to equities.”
And maybe that will be enough.
by Anonymous | reply 219 | December 24, 2018 12:17 PM |
Down 150 at the open.
Thanks, Mnuchin.
by Anonymous | reply 220 | December 24, 2018 1:33 PM |
Nasdaq is in a freefall. Down nearly 4%.
by Anonymous | reply 221 | December 24, 2018 1:38 PM |
I want Trump's head on a wall spike, along with the rest of his family's.
by Anonymous | reply 222 | December 24, 2018 1:41 PM |
Russell 2000 down over 3%. Nasdaq now down over 4% and falling,
by Anonymous | reply 223 | December 24, 2018 1:48 PM |
Oh thank god, my quote system is fucked up. Nasdaq is only down 1.5%. Nearly had a heart attack.
by Anonymous | reply 224 | December 24, 2018 1:54 PM |
The dow fell below 22,000. It’s rebounded a little, but still down more than 300 points.
by Anonymous | reply 225 | December 24, 2018 2:26 PM |
Dow drops 400 points following its worst week in a decade
by Anonymous | reply 227 | December 24, 2018 2:42 PM |
[quote]This is the thread that will keep giving.
Hilarity from your stupidity?
[quote]A decade of central bank intervention is finally failing miserably, just as any rational economist predicted, and people are shocked.
Um ... what's happening in the market today really doesn't have anything to do with the Fed, which is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. Nor has any "rational economist" predicted otherwise.
[quote]Welcome to Venezuela circa 1999.
Like I said: "hilarity from your stupidity."
by Anonymous | reply 228 | December 24, 2018 3:34 PM |
Even the deplorables must be angry that the stock market is in free fall. No one likes to lose money.
by Anonymous | reply 229 | December 24, 2018 3:37 PM |
The deplorables think Trump needs faithful Trump supporters in the Fed. According to them, It’s happening because the Democrats want to make Trump look bad.
by Anonymous | reply 230 | December 24, 2018 3:42 PM |
This is another great example of Trump being a shitty CEO. He tells Mnuchin to “do something” and calamity ensues.
by Anonymous | reply 231 | December 24, 2018 3:54 PM |
Dow Jones just dropped through 22000 again
by Anonymous | reply 232 | December 24, 2018 4:09 PM |
It’s fucking plummeting rather quickly
by Anonymous | reply 233 | December 24, 2018 4:11 PM |
The executives at Fox news are huddled as we speak, preparing the talking points for how this is the Democrats' fault.
by Anonymous | reply 234 | December 24, 2018 4:12 PM |
Trump is tweeting golf metaphors about the fed. At least we know where his mind is!
by Anonymous | reply 235 | December 24, 2018 4:15 PM |
Mnuchin has that sweet Midas touch.
by Anonymous | reply 236 | December 24, 2018 4:17 PM |
Down 475. Yikes! I hate to think what's going to happen after traders return from the holidays.
by Anonymous | reply 237 | December 24, 2018 4:18 PM |
It’s banging 21950 regularly now
by Anonymous | reply 238 | December 24, 2018 4:23 PM |
The more Trump talks, the worse things get. It’s unfortunate the deplorables can’t add up 2 + 2
by Anonymous | reply 239 | December 24, 2018 4:24 PM |
CNBC says (on 12/24/18)-
[quote] December is typically a buoyant month for stocks. Yet both the Dow and S&P 500 are down more than 12 percent this month -- on track for their worst December performances since the Great Depression in 1931.
by Anonymous | reply 240 | December 24, 2018 4:36 PM |
My capital gains have been cut almost in half. I've been planning to sell out of individual stocks and move the money into index funds. I think I can do it all this year.
by Anonymous | reply 241 | December 24, 2018 4:42 PM |
I would think the majority of deplorables are not in the stock market.
by Anonymous | reply 242 | December 24, 2018 4:45 PM |
They are if they have pensions or a 401k. That was a big point of pride when they interviewed Trump supporters on 60 Minutes. That their retirement funds were doing great under him. Now they are in the red
by Anonymous | reply 243 | December 24, 2018 4:51 PM |
Down 600 points. free falling. Winning! Ill take the hit for a couple of years, if it gets him out of office.
by Anonymous | reply 244 | December 24, 2018 4:56 PM |
Finished down 650 today, down to 21,795. Incredible. This is ALL on Trump.
by Anonymous | reply 245 | December 24, 2018 5:01 PM |
His tweeting about it today only made things worse!!!
Bravo Trump (and Mnuchin). Thanks for your hard work before Christmas.
by Anonymous | reply 246 | December 24, 2018 5:03 PM |
Yes. Trump appointed Fed Chief. Trump tax cuts. Trump tariffs. Failure after failure after failure.
by Anonymous | reply 247 | December 24, 2018 5:03 PM |
FUCK ALL SEXIST ASSHOLES! THIS is on you!! Just WOULDN"T vote for a woman! FUCK YOU!!!!
by Anonymous | reply 248 | December 24, 2018 5:07 PM |
Trump is such a narcissist he wants to fire someone else to dominate the news. If he fires Powell or Mnuchin, he will just make things worse. He is so weak that he can never admit that his failed leadership is to blame.
by Anonymous | reply 249 | December 24, 2018 5:47 PM |
I think he will fire Mnuchin next. He thinks Mnuchin is making a fool of him.
by Anonymous | reply 250 | December 24, 2018 5:52 PM |
Apple on pace for worst quarter since Q4 2000. I bet Buffet just bought more!
by Anonymous | reply 251 | December 24, 2018 5:52 PM |
Yep R247, He’s pushed out his best advisors; pushed forward racists; pushed away our allies; pushed up the deficit; pushed federal workers into the streets and pushed down the market.
by Anonymous | reply 252 | December 24, 2018 6:12 PM |
More CNBC insight on today's plunge-
[quote] We are now in a Bear Market — here's what that means
[quote] A “bear market” is when stocks see a 20 percent decline or more from a recent high — but they’re also marked by overall pessimism on Wall Street.
[quote] Since World War II, bear markets have lasted, on average, 13 months while stock markets tend to lose 30.4 percent of their value.
[quote] During those conditions it usually takes stocks an average 22 months to recover, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs and CNBC.
by Anonymous | reply 254 | December 24, 2018 6:43 PM |
This is trump's Christmas gift.... Merry Christmas..
by Anonymous | reply 255 | December 24, 2018 6:44 PM |
Are we great, winning yet?...
by Anonymous | reply 256 | December 24, 2018 6:47 PM |
Don’t forget Mnuchin made this global mess from a family vacation in MEXICO 🇲🇽 I hope the wild immigrants don’t eat him as they serve him margaritas
by Anonymous | reply 257 | December 24, 2018 7:08 PM |
The fund my partner works for is moving out of stocks and into cash and treasuries. It's not panic, but they don't see a meaningful market rebound any time soon. I'm having drinks with a portfolio manager friend tonight and will share any insight he may have later this evening.
I wonder if Trump is using the shutdown as an excuse to avoid Mar a Largo. I can't imagine anyone at a country club would be too happy with him.
by Anonymous | reply 258 | December 24, 2018 7:26 PM |
[post redacted because linking to dailymail.co.uk clearly indicates that the poster is either a troll or an idiot (probably both, honestly.) Our advice is that you just ignore this poster but whatever you do, don't click on any link to this putrid rag.]
by Anonymous | reply 259 | December 24, 2018 9:12 PM |
Trump is worried he will be seen as the next Herbert Hoover. I was surprised he even knew who Hoover was.
by Anonymous | reply 260 | December 24, 2018 9:21 PM |
The Fed didn't force you to start a trade war you can't win. The Fed didn't force you to give a trillion-dollar tax giveaway to the rich. And the Fed didn't force you to shut down the government for a useless border wall.
It's all you Donald Herbert Hoover Trump.
by Anonymous | reply 261 | December 24, 2018 9:25 PM |
..but you know, my 401k is really just all about you Donald!
by Anonymous | reply 262 | December 24, 2018 9:26 PM |
Former Banker. We'd barely survived the correction/recession/depression of ten years ago. It was only a matter of time before it revisited us, again.
Many, many people lost their life savings, their retirements, their homes, their families, and, in some cases, their lives, during such time. Devastating.
The difference between now and then, is this time it is not the 'greedy bankers' fault.
by Anonymous | reply 263 | December 24, 2018 9:27 PM |
R257: And this you would not believe! It looked as if they had devoured him! As if they had torn bits of him and stuffed them in their own gobbling mouths!
by Anonymous | reply 264 | December 24, 2018 9:28 PM |
[quote]Trump is worried he will be seen as the next Herbert Hoover.
He should be more worried about the constitutionally mandated punishment for treason.
by Anonymous | reply 265 | December 24, 2018 9:31 PM |
Excuse me, but won’t history refer to Bush Jr. as the 21st century Hoover? Or was he cleared by virtue of President Obama’s work?
by Anonymous | reply 266 | December 24, 2018 9:54 PM |
Steel slat barrier! Steel slant barrier! Steel slat barrier!
by Anonymous | reply 267 | December 24, 2018 10:02 PM |
Clearly we know Matt Drudge has turned on Trump. He has the stock market failure blasted front and center. Along with many rich people, Trump is eroding their wealth and has lost their confidence. If you only listen to Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh, you will soon be thrown out because they too are about to kill him for being a massive failure and a very weak man.
by Anonymous | reply 268 | December 24, 2018 10:06 PM |
None of problems that created the GFC were fixed- they were papered over with more debt and spending.
The GFC happened because the #Fed didn’t let the DotCom crash flush the system, because the zombie companies still alive from the failure to purge the system in 1991 would have died, the same rationale used by Greenspan in early 80s.
4 decades of zombie banks and useless companies revived and kept alive with injections of monetary heroin...no, nobody could have predicted this. 🤣🙄
by Anonymous | reply 269 | December 25, 2018 12:48 AM |
Exactly. Now the deficit is higher than ever and we are an isolated country, yet our economy is great. The tax cuts were used for stock profits. I don’t want people to lose jobs but you capjust keep printing money and alienating the world. Trump is a disaster and his cabinet is a cancer.
by Anonymous | reply 270 | December 25, 2018 12:52 AM |
We have millions working lousy fast food jobs, or working part time at Walmart. Our economy is in the shitter. With lousy jobs...people can not save anything. Their hopes and dreams are gone.
by Anonymous | reply 271 | December 25, 2018 7:07 AM |
His cabinet is mostly criminals, just like him.
by Anonymous | reply 272 | December 25, 2018 7:09 AM |
"Japan's Nikkei drops 5 percent after Wall Street slide deepens"
Merry Christmas to all our allies!
by Anonymous | reply 273 | December 25, 2018 8:29 AM |
R273, that’s quite a lot.
by Anonymous | reply 274 | December 25, 2018 2:52 PM |
Yuletide massacre !!!
by Anonymous | reply 275 | December 25, 2018 3:07 PM |
When will someone say recession is here, thanks Cheeto
by Anonymous | reply 276 | December 25, 2018 4:32 PM |
What is the threshold for the Senate to turn on him? Mass starvation on Main Street? I don’t understand why Republicans are so afraid of a fat, dangerous 🤡 clown
by Anonymous | reply 277 | December 25, 2018 4:52 PM |
R277, because they largely agree with him. And he has a good chance of appointing three SCOTUS justices in his first term.
by Anonymous | reply 279 | December 25, 2018 5:03 PM |
Recession 2019, coming up. . . .
by Anonymous | reply 280 | December 25, 2018 5:04 PM |
R276, because right now there simply isn't any evidence that we are in a recession. By any measure, the broader economy remains quite strong, thank you. It's only a stock market correction at this point, and corrections do happen. Remember the old saw: "The stock market has correctly predicted 9 of the past 5 recessions".
NYT has an article about this today.
by Anonymous | reply 281 | December 25, 2018 5:09 PM |
Maybe they support him up to a point, but at what cost? It seems like they are waiting for a disaster before speaking up. They seem like neutered zombies, very weak.
by Anonymous | reply 282 | December 25, 2018 5:09 PM |
Why would they go against him? He has record support among Republicans
by Anonymous | reply 283 | December 25, 2018 5:10 PM |
**Breaking news!** The Dow just ___________!
Dropped below 20000 since January 25, 2017
by Anonymous | reply 284 | December 25, 2018 5:12 PM |
The economy is strong...at this moment. Trump however is exacerbating trouble, and when it’s clear growth is slowing then Donnie and Mnuchin will bring on the sads. Both are terrible at their jobs.
by Anonymous | reply 285 | December 25, 2018 5:13 PM |
You are more generous than I am. I think most Republicans will turn on him if he fucks up their profits.
by Anonymous | reply 286 | December 25, 2018 5:15 PM |
Most Republicans are not wealthy
by Anonymous | reply 287 | December 25, 2018 5:17 PM |
I love that Mnuchin is spending the Holidays in Cancun. It's almost like performance art.
by Anonymous | reply 288 | December 25, 2018 5:17 PM |
Yeah. He is frolicking with Mexicans during the government shutdown. You can’t make that stuff up.
by Anonymous | reply 289 | December 25, 2018 5:21 PM |
I love Cancun. The weather is beautiful this time of the year.
by Anonymous | reply 290 | December 25, 2018 5:28 PM |
The blame game never ends when you are a crazy dictator
by Anonymous | reply 291 | December 25, 2018 5:32 PM |
[quote] R282: ... It seems like they are waiting for a disaster before speaking up...
Exactly. They want to know they will have support before taking a tough position.
by Anonymous | reply 292 | December 25, 2018 8:25 PM |
Terrifying. When will the Susan Collins of the world wake up? Republicans on the dole enabling Trump are shameful. They all will be remembered with hatred.
by Anonymous | reply 293 | December 25, 2018 10:35 PM |
R293
Do you honestly believe that this would not have happened under Hillary as well?
That decades of fiscal abuse wouldn’t eventually cause problems?
Do you honestly think that our government can afford the $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities it is required to cover over the next century?
by Anonymous | reply 294 | December 25, 2018 11:59 PM |
No. I don’t think Hillary would have caused wild market swings. Of course the bull market would run its course, but she would not have put through tax cuts for the wealthy that ended up being short term gain. Trump is incredibly inept and chaotic.
by Anonymous | reply 295 | December 26, 2018 12:05 AM |
Temp is the dummy who ask Mnuchin to make the calls.
by Anonymous | reply 296 | December 26, 2018 12:08 AM |
[quote] R294: Do you honestly believe that this would not have happened under Hillary as well?
Honestly? Yes, I believe. Hillary would not have initiated trade wars, tariffs, and tax cuts for the top 0.1%. She would not have coddled Putin, and antagonized allies. She would not have shutdown the government. She would not have been corrupt, ignored advisors, and neglected her briefings and reading.
[quote] R294: That decades of fiscal abuse wouldn’t eventually cause problems?
This is too vague to address “honestly”.
[quote] R294: Do you honestly think that our government can afford the $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities it is required to cover over the next century?
I don’t know. I’d have to read more. $200 trillion over 100 years is only $2 trillion per year, in average, incidentally.
by Anonymous | reply 297 | December 26, 2018 12:10 AM |
Personally, if I don’t know the answer to something, I find it is usually safe to assume Trump is lying and is wrong. Unless proven otherwise, I mean.
by Anonymous | reply 298 | December 26, 2018 12:12 AM |
Also, Hillary would not have taken criticism personally, too. Nor selected staff based on a person’s appearance. You’ll recall Pence was selected for “looking like a statesman”.
by Anonymous | reply 299 | December 26, 2018 12:15 AM |
I have it on good authority Susan Collins is “concerned.” Jeff Flake is “uneasy” and Corker is “unfocmfortable.”
by Anonymous | reply 300 | December 26, 2018 12:17 AM |
[quote] Do you honestly believe that this would not have happened under Hillary as well?
This is what Paul Krugman said in the NYT about the president, the stock market, and the economy-
[quote] The truth is that most of the time, presidential actions don’t matter much for the economy; short-term economic management is mainly up to the Fed. But when bad things happen, we do need the White House to step up. In 2008 and 2009, it mattered a lot that officials of both the outgoing Bush administration and the incoming Obama administration responded competently and intelligently to the financial crisis.
[quote] Unfortunately, there’s no reason to expect a comparable degree of competence if something goes wrong again.
by Anonymous | reply 301 | December 26, 2018 2:47 AM |
I don’t think the red mass realizes Trump is singlehandedly turning everything to shit! It won’t hit home until they lose new jobs and can’t pay off credit cards. At this rate it’s a fast race to meet Trump’s fat bottom.
by Anonymous | reply 302 | December 26, 2018 2:48 AM |
Futures down again. Implied opening is down 200 points.
by Anonymous | reply 303 | December 26, 2018 3:20 AM |
Simple minded people are simple minded.
Correlation isn’t causation.
by Anonymous | reply 304 | December 26, 2018 3:29 AM |
The "base" are barely literate. They don't have the money to invest. It's rich donors Trump needs to worry about because they got what they wanted but now they have no more use for him. He's an albatross dragging down their wealth.
by Anonymous | reply 305 | December 26, 2018 3:49 AM |
The nightmare scenario is Trump fires Mnuchin and replaces him with Larry Kudlow.
by Anonymous | reply 306 | December 26, 2018 3:54 AM |
R305
That’s the attitude that will win the next election!
Keep going! You did you!
by Anonymous | reply 307 | December 26, 2018 3:54 AM |
Rumors are coming out of the WH that Mnuchin is toast. If the market suffers loses again this week, he could be packing his bags by Jan 1.
by Anonymous | reply 308 | December 26, 2018 3:59 AM |
You're welcome. A can of beer, a gun, and enough minimum wage for electricity to watch Trump News is all they want. Only Trump could bring on a recession one year earlier than expected over his stupid wall.
by Anonymous | reply 309 | December 26, 2018 4:02 AM |
What's so impressive is that if Mnuchin goes, two out of the three most important cabinet positions + Chief of Staff will all be effectively vacant, and the other one is a recent replacement.
What's funny is after Mattis quit, an article I read speculated despite the turnover, the Secretary of Treasury is a major position which will remain stable, and how Mnuchin stays under the radar avoiding the spotlight and getting caught up in things that would put him on the chopping block. Would like to find that article if only to laugh at its author.
by Anonymous | reply 310 | December 26, 2018 4:57 AM |
We have plenty of money to fund it as the average revenue in a normal year is more than 2 trillion. And that’s not even with billionaires paying a fair share.
by Anonymous | reply 311 | December 26, 2018 5:10 AM |
Dow is up about 180, so that's good news.
by Anonymous | reply 312 | December 26, 2018 1:47 PM |
Still up, but by only 30 now...
by Anonymous | reply 313 | December 26, 2018 2:08 PM |
Has the Orange Turd tweeted yet this morning?
by Anonymous | reply 314 | December 26, 2018 2:24 PM |
Wilbur Ross is a criminal, why isn't he going?
by Anonymous | reply 315 | December 26, 2018 2:33 PM |
Effectively flat right now. Disappointing - I was hoping for a bounceback after Monday's bloodbath.
by Anonymous | reply 316 | December 26, 2018 2:49 PM |
As R314 suggests. the second tRump opens his trap, the market will fall again.
by Anonymous | reply 317 | December 26, 2018 2:58 PM |
"It's a tremendous opportunity to buy" says the real estate hustler who has admitted on numerous occasions that he really doesn't know much about the stick market and seldom buys stocks.
If Trump's calling a bottom that's enough. to make me sit peacefully until the market goes down another 10-15%.
by Anonymous | reply 318 | December 26, 2018 3:04 PM |
It’s back up where it was before Christmas Eve, which means it will be back down again by Friday. Like a yo-yo, 600 point swings are not good for long term stability.
by Anonymous | reply 319 | December 26, 2018 7:06 PM |
Dow up almost 1000 pts.
by Anonymous | reply 320 | December 26, 2018 7:45 PM |
Yay! We are in the mania stage!
by Anonymous | reply 321 | December 26, 2018 7:48 PM |
Up over 1,000 points at close. Largest single-day gain in history, best percentage increases in all three major indexes since March 2009.
Trump should leave the country more often. For best results, he should leave permanently.
by Anonymous | reply 322 | December 26, 2018 8:07 PM |
I sold quite a bit today, so I’m really happy it went up so much. Surprised, too. Is this a “dead cat bounce?”
by Anonymous | reply 323 | December 26, 2018 8:16 PM |
This market seems very influenced by news (good month for Amazon) rather than stability. Based on recent performance, bad news will as quickly set it down again, and we know Trump is looking at all bad news in 2019.
by Anonymous | reply 324 | December 26, 2018 8:25 PM |
It was quite oversold and is back where it was a week ago. Maybe this was the bottom and things will stabilize for awhile.
by Anonymous | reply 325 | December 26, 2018 8:31 PM |
Mutual funds suffered redemptions of $56.2 billion in the week ended December 19, the biggest outflow since the week ended Oct. 15, 2008, according to data released Wednesday.
Even as investors were dumping mutual funds last week, they added $25.2 billion to exchange-traded funds.
by Anonymous | reply 326 | December 26, 2018 8:35 PM |
R326, can you briefly explain the diff? B/w mutual funds, and exchange traded funds? TY.
by Anonymous | reply 327 | December 26, 2018 8:40 PM |
An exchange traded fund, or ETF, is very similar to a mutual fund for many practical purposes but has advantages that mutual funds do not. ... The main difference is that ETFs trade during the day like a stock whereas a mutual fund can only be bought or sold at the net asset value, or NAV, at the end of the day.
ETFs can be more profitable but also more risky since they trade all day. They also have sell points that often trigger massive market selling to try and save profits.
by Anonymous | reply 328 | December 26, 2018 8:46 PM |
Exchange Traded Funds are more tax effect so are best in after tax accounts. The can be bought and sold during the trading day. Mutual funds can only be purchased at the close of the stock market.
ETFs can be shorted, mutual funds can not. ETFs are sometimes easier to move from one brokerage house to another. Some mutual funds can not be moved to different brokerages. Fidelity's new zero cost index mutual funds can only be held at Fidelity.
For most people, the differences are pretty minimal.
by Anonymous | reply 329 | December 26, 2018 8:47 PM |
All good information. I actually don’t like ETFs because they create market instability and panic selling. Clearly that is where money is being invested, but they are not regulated enough imho.
by Anonymous | reply 330 | December 26, 2018 8:53 PM |
That is fantastic news about today's gain. I posted this morning that I was hoping for a bounce-back after Monday. I think there was a whiff of panic selling going on, and investors may be realizing that there is no particular news justifying excessive market pessimism right now. The economy is still going strong, so a major bear market would be hard to explain.
by Anonymous | reply 331 | December 26, 2018 8:55 PM |
Shot up again. Relax.
by Anonymous | reply 332 | December 26, 2018 8:55 PM |
I am also happy it went up, but we need a few more up days to know whether or not the market is really on an upward trajectory. It still has a boom or bust feel to it. My father is an asshole.
by Anonymous | reply 333 | December 26, 2018 9:14 PM |
Gen Mattis was working at his office at the Pentagon all Christmas Day. I guess we now know why.
by Anonymous | reply 334 | December 26, 2018 9:19 PM |
[QUOTE]Up big one day, down big the next.
I suppose that failure is what every democrat wants. Yawn ........
by Anonymous | reply 335 | December 26, 2018 9:26 PM |
Democrats like most Americans want stability and fiscal responsibility and oversight, not a wild casino bender week to week. People have forgotten already that chaos is not normal.
by Anonymous | reply 336 | December 26, 2018 9:36 PM |
I'd settle for competence, R335, something that is in short supply in the Trump administration.
by Anonymous | reply 337 | December 26, 2018 9:49 PM |
[quote] Trump should leave the country more often. For best results, he should leave permanently.
So true. If only good news would last.
by Anonymous | reply 338 | December 27, 2018 1:09 AM |
[quote]I think I'll just quietly and wait for Trump to do to the economy what he did to his casinos.
There is no Fred Trump to save it this time.
by Anonymous | reply 339 | December 27, 2018 4:11 AM |
[quote]Warren Buffet is an asshole, and an example of the "I got mine, why can't you get yours?" culture in the US.
He is not, and it is not.
In addition to what r189 said, remember he is the richest person to continually be saying the super-rich need less coddling and more taxes.
by Anonymous | reply 341 | December 27, 2018 4:17 AM |
Futures show it’ll be red day again.
by Anonymous | reply 342 | December 27, 2018 12:56 PM |
Eh, if anything the last few days have shown is that where it opens and where it closes are often DRAMATICALLY different.
by Anonymous | reply 343 | December 27, 2018 1:02 PM |
European markets were lower after being closed for the holidays.
by Anonymous | reply 344 | December 27, 2018 1:17 PM |
Christmas Miracle? Santa’s gift to Investors? Pick your cliché. The Dow Jones Industrial Average roared ahead 1,086 points Wednesday, wiping out some ofDecember’s steep losses. Now the index remains 2,600 points—or about 10%—lower than where it started this month. European stocks couldn’t manage to follow America’s lead and were in the red Thursday morning. U.S. stock market futures were lower, too. Dow futures fell 1.8%, S&P 500 futures were 1.7% lower, and Nasdaq Composite futures dropped 1.7%. Blame reports that President Trump is considering banning the use of equipment made by China’s Huawei and ZTE. In today’s Morning Movers, we...
...ask why the market rallied 1,086 points;...and summarize stock news on a holiday Thursday.
by Anonymous | reply 345 | December 27, 2018 1:20 PM |
Down 350.
by Anonymous | reply 346 | December 27, 2018 1:34 PM |
Almost half of yesterday’s gains are gone in 45 min
by Anonymous | reply 347 | December 27, 2018 2:15 PM |
There is a bit of good news. The US is sending a delegation to China to discuss trade.
by Anonymous | reply 348 | December 27, 2018 2:29 PM |
Looks like a midday rally.
by Anonymous | reply 349 | December 27, 2018 3:31 PM |
Wait. Are the same people who exuberantly bought yesterday now selling today? ETFs will kill the stock market.
by Anonymous | reply 350 | December 27, 2018 4:38 PM |
U.S. consumer confidence slumped in December to the lowest since July as a gauge of labor market expectations fell by the most in 41 years, the latest sign Americans are growing less optimistic as stock markets gyrate and the expansion moderates.
The confidence index decreased to 128.1 from 136.4, according to a report Thursday from the New York-based Conference Board. That missed every economist estimate in Bloomberg’s survey, which called for 133.5. A measure of consumer expectations fell to a two-year low while the share of people expecting more jobs in the next six months decreased to 16.6 percent from 22.7 percent, the biggest drop since 1977ö
by Anonymous | reply 351 | December 27, 2018 4:44 PM |
Yesterday, was insane.. such a soar in the market. The swings are so extreme... the lows and highs. Down market (no surprise) so far today. This reflects the trump administration... the crazy extremes of events.
by Anonymous | reply 352 | December 27, 2018 4:48 PM |
Volatility and -600 pts after yesterday’s +1000.
by Anonymous | reply 353 | December 27, 2018 6:36 PM |
DEAD CAT BOUNCE
by Anonymous | reply 354 | December 27, 2018 6:37 PM |
Exactly, R354. I sold $30,000 yesterday.
I thought this would happen when Trump was elected. It should have, but there was an unexpected delay.
by Anonymous | reply 357 | December 27, 2018 6:59 PM |
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump is considering an executive order in the new year to declare a national emergency that would bar U.S. companies from using telecommunications equipment made by China’s Huawei and ZTE, three sources familiar with the situation told Reuters.
***
The executive order, which has been under consideration for more than eight months, could be issued as early as January and would direct the Commerce Department to block U.S. companies from buying equipment from foreign telecommunications makers that pose significant national security risks, sources from the telecoms industry and the administration said.
by Anonymous | reply 358 | December 27, 2018 7:04 PM |
R358, I like the proposal. Sometimes a broken clock, well, you all know the rest.
by Anonymous | reply 359 | December 27, 2018 7:10 PM |
What’s the name of that book? [italic] “Everything Trump Touches, Dies.”, [/italic] IIRC. That said, this might not be a bad idea. I don’t know, I’d have to hear more about it. In general, though, I oppose anything Trump promotes.
by Anonymous | reply 360 | December 27, 2018 7:22 PM |
Forcing US companies to pay a lot more for telecommunications equipment? Sure, sounds like fun, let’s do it.
by Anonymous | reply 361 | December 27, 2018 7:40 PM |
So what happened? I step away for 2 hours when the market was down 650 and come back to an 800 point + swing to it being up over 200?
by Anonymous | reply 362 | December 27, 2018 8:08 PM |
As for the Chinese companies, one of the problems with Trump is he is so dishonest, and so often wrong, and makes so much drama over matters that aren’t really dramatic, that when a real problem arises, I can’t trust him to even understand the issue, even a tiny bit.
He’ll be ordering battleships around, army divisions, and won’t even know they’ve already been destroyed following his earlier “gut” decisions.
by Anonymous | reply 363 | December 27, 2018 8:09 PM |
I retired from an employee owned private firm after 20 years so our stock was not subject to the vagaries of the stock market, thank god. It continued to climb for most of my tenure there and the valuation was completely based on real value and worth , not speculation and casino type trading. I had to sell the stock upon retirement and now am in all this upheaval . C'est la vie!
by Anonymous | reply 364 | December 27, 2018 8:15 PM |
tl;dr: Now or next week are good times to put money into a Roth IRA, since the market is down.
.
If you are moving money from a 401k or pre-tax IRA into a Roth, it’s a good idea to do it when the market is down, like NOW. The move is a taxable event, so when the market is down, your taxes will be lower. Assuming the market rebounds, as it always has in the past, the rebound will be when your money is in the Roth, and is never taxed there.
You could do it this week or next week, if you want the taxable event to be in the next tax year.
This would apply to regular yearly contributions, too.
If you think the market will sink further, then I suppose you could wait.
This is one of the few tax events that is under in your control.
by Anonymous | reply 365 | December 27, 2018 8:45 PM |
Hmm. Aren’t the ETFs buying and selling and buying the same stocks? This feels like end of the year, shell game shenanigans.
by Anonymous | reply 366 | December 27, 2018 8:54 PM |
R366, R350, there’s no evidence that these are the same people.
by Anonymous | reply 367 | December 27, 2018 9:36 PM |
Closed up 260. Crazy volatility lately.
by Anonymous | reply 368 | December 27, 2018 9:47 PM |
The volatility is not a good sign, as far as I understand. It’s an indicator that the market hasn’t found a bottom yet.
by Anonymous | reply 369 | December 27, 2018 10:19 PM |
Before Trump was elected, the transition team under Christie was holding events where, for the price of a ticket, anyone could get a sneak peek at the new administration transition. I think a lot of business people and analysts attended, so they could get an idea what the Trump administration would look like. From reports that leaked out, everything about the transition was very reassuring and well-run. So Wall Street believed it was getting a normal Republican administration. Even when Christie was booted out, there was no reason to believe that Pence wouldn't continue putting together a normal Republican administration. Now with Mattis out, a possibly illegal Acting Attorney General, an Acting Chief of Staff who probably won't last long and well, Mnuchin… Wall Street can't self-soothe itself that there's anything like a normal administration or even normal adults in the room.
by Anonymous | reply 370 | December 27, 2018 10:32 PM |
R367, it may not be the same people, but it’s the same programs—it’s computer-driven trading.
by Anonymous | reply 371 | December 27, 2018 11:00 PM |
[quote] R371 - Ok!
[quote] R366: Hmm. Aren’t the ETFs buying and selling and buying the same stocks? This feels like end of the year, shell game shenanigans.
Ok!
[quote] R350: Are the same people who exuberantly bought yesterday now selling today? ETFs will kill the stock market.
No idea. It’s a global world.
by Anonymous | reply 372 | December 28, 2018 12:09 AM |
All the ETF trading is making Trump happy = end is near.
by Anonymous | reply 373 | December 28, 2018 12:17 AM |
Today's move doesn't prove much one way or the other. Anyone with any real authority is off on a beach somewhere, and the trading is getting done by the interns this week.
by Anonymous | reply 374 | December 28, 2018 12:29 AM |
We’re in the year-end period where there are a lot of folks that have stepped away from the market and therefore some significant changes in buy or sells have a more profound impact on the market,” said Gibson Smith, founder of Smith Capital Investors. “There’s another big component: A lot of focus-driven issues are being driven to a head. Some of it is on trade, some of it on the government shutdown, the Federal Reserve versus Donald Trump, they are all coming to a head at a time when there is a lot of illiquidity in the market. ”
“I think the market is growing tired of some of the uncertainty and some of the erratic nature of communication that has come out. That’s causing some of the volatility,” Smith added. “The volatility is going to continue and it’s going to continue into the New Year. There are still a lot of unresolved issues that sit on the horizon.”
by Anonymous | reply 376 | December 28, 2018 2:29 AM |
R357
Feel dumb?
This is the experience of market without real prices. Everything is relative. No fixing standard, like the metric (or imperial or British standard) system, just banks and people with government appointed powers protecting their self interest.
At least the kilo and pound can be mutually reconciled. Reconciliation between the dollar, euro, yen and yuan is impossible without accurate accounting of relative worth. Our metrics are broken.
by Anonymous | reply 377 | December 28, 2018 4:06 AM |
[quote] R377: Feel dumb?
No, I do not, and I don’t know why you think that I might? I don’t understand any of your points.
If you have a problem with floating currencies, please explain why. I can’t see why anyone would have a problem with them. It seems the most natural thing in the world to me.
by Anonymous | reply 378 | December 28, 2018 4:31 AM |
We opened higher so we will probably close down by A LOT.
by Anonymous | reply 379 | December 28, 2018 2:05 PM |
Don't bother with that nut, R378. The evidence suggests that it's our resident Idiot Libertarian Troll, who's been posting here for over a dozen years and has been consistently wrong in his every post. The bit about "$200 trillion in unfunded liabilities" above, a ridiculously false bit of idiocy, along with his hatred for the Fed, are pretty good clues that this is not someone you can have a rational discussion with.
He's a gold bug, a Ron Paul worshipper, an anti-Fed, anti-"fiat" money, Austrian economics devotee and he's always predicting a complete economic meltdown and "Weimar-level" hyperinflation. And he has demonstrated over and over again that he simply has no idea what he's talking about. His economic views are quasi-religious in nature and when reality differs from his beliefs, he'll pick his beliefs every time.
by Anonymous | reply 380 | December 28, 2018 4:00 PM |
Flat today. $2b was put in yesterday and now everyone is sitting on their bets.
by Anonymous | reply 381 | December 28, 2018 5:14 PM |
R381, by whom?
by Anonymous | reply 382 | December 28, 2018 5:54 PM |
“Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, said market-on-close orders went from $200 million to sell to more than $2 billion to buy late in the day. "That started the early rally," he said. "They thought they were going to be huge sellers, now they're huge buyers."
by Anonymous | reply 383 | December 28, 2018 6:00 PM |
Thank you, that’s interesting. I should speak with them.
by Anonymous | reply 384 | December 28, 2018 6:02 PM |
PS, not sure if this was yesterday or the day before.
by Anonymous | reply 385 | December 28, 2018 6:02 PM |
The Russell 3000 was last at today’s level in Sep, 2017. That’s unfortunate but not a disaster, IMHO. Maybe if we fell a full 2 years behind, or more, would I think something bad was coming. So far, this just looks like a vanilla correction.
by Anonymous | reply 386 | December 28, 2018 7:02 PM |
Because Trump is on pause, it’s creating stability? I am seeing modest gains for stocks that were pushing at their year end lows. I have some orders in below market because I don’t think we have hit the bottom yet. January will be even more extreme when Trump presses play. Good luck.🍀
by Anonymous | reply 387 | December 28, 2018 7:08 PM |
We just sold about $300k of individual stocks today. I am in the process of moving our individual stock money to index ETFs. I'm (selfishly) hoping Mueller's report combined the a looming recession will bring the market down more before I buy. I really shouldn't be trying to time the market though.
Next year I will do the same until we have no individual stocks left. This has been hanging over my head for several years, I'm glad I'm finally working towards the goal.
by Anonymous | reply 388 | December 28, 2018 7:54 PM |
I’m selling another large sum today, too. It’s in my 401k, so there are no tax considerations.
One more trading day in December.
by Anonymous | reply 389 | December 28, 2018 8:01 PM |
Why did you sell, r389?
Don't forget, the markets will close early on Monday.
by Anonymous | reply 390 | December 28, 2018 8:04 PM |
Never mind about Trump being on pause. I just saw he is threatening to shut down government for as long as it takes and throw out other trade deals. If someone on the bus yelled those things you would walk aaay.
" Frank Cappelleri, executive director at Instinet, wrote in a note to clients. "In just two and a half days, the S&P 500 has witnessed its worst Christmas Eve showing ever, its biggest gain since 2009 and now the largest intra-day positive reversal since 2010.”
by Anonymous | reply 391 | December 28, 2018 9:03 PM |
[quote] R390: Why did you sell, [R389]?
I explained in R162. I’ve been selling in small tranches since January. My goal being to execute many small transactions over time so that, if I have made a mistake or two, (like selling the day after a huge drop and buying the day before a huge drop.), the mistakes won’t be overwhelmingly ruinous.
My expectation is that the general market trend will be poor for the next 12 to 48 months.
My age and the specific details of my life play a role that it might apply to you. I’m retired, age 60, and have enough savings to live reasonably well on it; however, I can’t afford, or maybe I simply don’t want to experience, a loss of a large chunk of my savings. So, I am about 80% in cash now.
by Anonymous | reply 392 | December 29, 2018 3:29 AM |
Thanks for sharing, r392. Sorry I didn't connect you with r162.
I don't see how the markets won't tumble going forward. But then I thought they would fall when trump was elected. I think he is just going to become more and more unhinged. Then there are the trade wars, rising interest rates and the unwinding of the monetary easements. And, of course, Mueller's report.
by Anonymous | reply 393 | December 29, 2018 4:04 AM |
Good for you. Wealth preservation is very underrated. It's good advice to know your timeline and tolerance for losing your savings.
I don't see enough coverage of the deficit. Are we now (soon?) at a point where the interest to service the national debt is greater than GDP growth? This is where people need to really question the Trump/lemming strategy of simultaneously overspending and reducing government revenue.
Also, Mnuchin and Kudlow are both dummies. If these are the main people advising Trump, the market will fail.
And it relates to the deficit, but corporate America is over leveraged with debt, including loans to do stock buy backs. There is a potential house of cards with debt, slowing growth and job layoffs.
Finally, the markets HATE Trump. He creates instability and panic. Trump is on a toxic path, which sets up investors for failure until he is removed.
by Anonymous | reply 394 | December 29, 2018 4:10 AM |
Nice post, r394. I agree the rising debt levels with rising interest rates is a bad combination.
by Anonymous | reply 395 | December 29, 2018 4:30 AM |
Dow Jones futures rose solidly Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, after President Donald Trump cited "big progress" toward a China trade deal. A stock market rally attempt is underway, but it's still a bear market for now.
-- Investors Business Daily
by Anonymous | reply 396 | December 31, 2018 4:50 AM |
R396 But Trump is one big liar who can trust what he says or tweets?
by Anonymous | reply 397 | December 31, 2018 10:04 AM |
But with one session left to go, the Dow is looking at a drop of 1,656.82 points, or 6.7% for 2018, its biggest one-year point and percentage decline since 2008, while a quarterly loss of 12.83% is the worst since the first quarter of 2009. A monthly loss of 9.7% makes it the worst December since 1931 for the Dow and the biggest one-month percentage decline since February 2009.
The year is also shaping up as the worst since 2008 for the S&P 500, down 7%, and the Nasdaq Composite, off 4.6%.
While Monday’s session may see thin volumes ahead of Tuesday’s New Year’s Day holiday, appetite for perceived riskier assets such as stocks could be getting a lift from trade headlines.
by Anonymous | reply 398 | December 31, 2018 1:02 PM |
Stock futures pointed to an upbeat final session of trade for 2018 on Monday, as investors drew inspiration from trade headlines pointing to hopes of progress between the U.S. and China.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 241 points, or 1.1%, to 23,276, while S&P 500 futures rose 23.5 points, or 0.9%, to 2,509.50 and Nasdaq futures jumped 70.25 points, or 1.1%, to 6,363.50.
by Anonymous | reply 399 | December 31, 2018 1:03 PM |
Up over 200.
by Anonymous | reply 400 | December 31, 2018 1:43 PM |
60% of Americans don’t have $500 In savings
by Anonymous | reply 401 | December 31, 2018 1:45 PM |
And your point would be...?
by Anonymous | reply 402 | December 31, 2018 1:48 PM |
What time does the market close today? Ty.
by Anonymous | reply 403 | December 31, 2018 5:18 PM |
I thought it closed early today, r403, but it doesn't look like it does.
by Anonymous | reply 404 | December 31, 2018 5:50 PM |
Last day of the year has to be a full day in case anyone needs to sell out of a position and settle it for cash (same day settlement).
.
by Anonymous | reply 405 | December 31, 2018 7:58 PM |
Anyone feeling optimistic?
by Anonymous | reply 407 | January 2, 2019 3:46 AM |
Yes!
by Anonymous | reply 408 | January 2, 2019 4:11 AM |
Dow futures down 350 but it is early
by Anonymous | reply 410 | January 2, 2019 9:56 AM |
Lately the market has been doing the opposite of where it opens. We'll probably close up today, r410.
by Anonymous | reply 411 | January 2, 2019 2:20 PM |
Looks like today's news of a possible compromise on the budget isn't enough to overcome fears of a global slowdown. A report on manufacturing in China showed a larger than expected decline and fell to a two year low. Same with Germany's PMI, which fell to a three year low. Trump's tarrif war is only going to make things worse.
by Anonymous | reply 412 | January 2, 2019 2:49 PM |
Trump told reporters that December was a “glitch.” Wow, his knowledge is astoundingly ignorant.
by Anonymous | reply 413 | January 2, 2019 7:13 PM |
I can only dream of a newsreader saying something like:
Of course, Trump has no education or experience in this field. He doesn’t read, or listen to briefings, and can’t site an expert source, so his statement is based on ignorance, empty bravado, and lies, as usual.
by Anonymous | reply 414 | January 2, 2019 7:28 PM |
2019 will not be pretty, thanks mainly to Trump's ongoing tariff wars.
But gold is will be at $1400 by June.
by Anonymous | reply 415 | January 2, 2019 7:36 PM |
He created the mess!
by Anonymous | reply 416 | January 2, 2019 7:38 PM |
Today ended up.. not by much, but in the green.
by Anonymous | reply 417 | January 2, 2019 9:13 PM |
R415, wait till Mueller's report is released and watch the hilarity ensue!
by Anonymous | reply 418 | January 2, 2019 9:20 PM |
By glitch does he mean tax cuts that did not work, constantly changing his tariff positions, attacking the Fed and allies, and constant erratic and weird behavior by himself?
by Anonymous | reply 419 | January 2, 2019 9:34 PM |
Not surprised, r420. Who at Apple really believed that $1000 phones that the company makes obsolete every year would fly off the shelves?
by Anonymous | reply 421 | January 2, 2019 9:46 PM |
Yeah, futures are down 300 following AAPL's announcement.
by Anonymous | reply 423 | January 3, 2019 12:27 AM |
Tomorrow could be a 1000+ point drop day.
by Anonymous | reply 424 | January 3, 2019 2:07 AM |
Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google...crash and burn, motherfuckers!
It's high time this toxic tech bubble exploded.
by Anonymous | reply 425 | January 3, 2019 3:13 AM |
Damn, what isn't crashing and burning.
by Anonymous | reply 426 | January 3, 2019 3:20 AM |
R422, I predict Cook will not last another couple of years, not only in the job, but on this earth. Not sure if the job is cursed, but the guy is only 58, yet looks like my 73 year old grandmother. Something's not right.
by Anonymous | reply 427 | January 3, 2019 4:12 AM |
Down about 450, near where the futures said it would be. But the day is still young and we may hit that 1000 point drop yet, r424.
by Anonymous | reply 428 | January 3, 2019 2:06 PM |
Sometimes it goes way down early, then works back up at the end of the day... trying to be an optimist.
by Anonymous | reply 429 | January 3, 2019 2:20 PM |
My gift of hope to you, r429...
[quote]After a brutal stock selloff in December and for the year, markets could be due for a rally in 2019, says Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.
[quote]There’s one catch — the U.S. needs to avoid a recession, which some economists and the market are already pricing into expectations for this year.
[quote]On top of that, investors may need to wade through a rough first three months of the year to get to rosier times, Siegel told MarketWatch during a phone interview, reiterating comments he made earlier during a CNBC interview on Wednesday.
[quote]“My feeling is that the market is virtually positioned for a mild recession, but I just don’t think that it’s going to happen,” Siegel said. “If we avoid a recession, we’re going to have a really good market,” he told CNBC.
[quote]The Wharton professor who forecast that the Dow would see 20,000 at the end of 2015 says now that a combination of a better-than-expected corporate and economic results should embolden bulls in the near term.
by Anonymous | reply 430 | January 3, 2019 2:39 PM |
Sensitive markets where every news can bring it up or down several hundred points. Nervous markets because Cheeto is unstable. Now it’s Apple’s turn and Dow is down nearly 600.
by Anonymous | reply 431 | January 3, 2019 2:41 PM |
Bitcoin will save us!
by Anonymous | reply 432 | January 3, 2019 2:48 PM |
The broader markets aren't doing nearly as bad. S&P is down 1.8% and the Russell 2000 is down 1%. Dow and Nasdaq are each down nearly 3%.
by Anonymous | reply 433 | January 3, 2019 2:48 PM |
Looks like the rally has started r429.
by Anonymous | reply 434 | January 3, 2019 3:56 PM |
Russell now in positive territory.
by Anonymous | reply 435 | January 3, 2019 4:00 PM |
R427, thin people age poorly. Zsa-Zsa Gabor famously once said, “at some point a lady has to choose between her fanny and her face”.
by Anonymous | reply 436 | January 3, 2019 7:13 PM |
R430, But Wharton graduated Trump, so it’s reputation is forever soiled.
by Anonymous | reply 437 | January 3, 2019 7:15 PM |
And that Sophie's choice dilemma can make or break the stock market, r426. So choose wisely.
by Anonymous | reply 438 | January 3, 2019 7:19 PM |
Tomorrow we get a jobs report. That sometimes moves the market.
Let me channel Jim Cramer:
“we got a weak jobs report, so fear of recession has sent the market down significantly...oh, it was a strong report? Oh, well then, we got a strong jobs report so fears of incipient inflation has sent the market down significantly...oh, the market is up, you say? In that case...”
Learn how to do that and you can get your own TV show.
by Anonymous | reply 439 | January 3, 2019 7:21 PM |
It wasn't the business school, R437, which is what really has the reputation. They are two separate institutions.
by Anonymous | reply 440 | January 3, 2019 7:23 PM |
I read earlier, r439, that a weak jobs report may actually help the market in that it may signal no rate increases for the foreseeable future.
by Anonymous | reply 441 | January 3, 2019 7:24 PM |
The ADP jobs report for December showed a gain of 271,000 jobs, so the federal report is likely to be good.
by Anonymous | reply 442 | January 3, 2019 7:39 PM |
The continuing drop in oil prices signals a broader world economic slowdown. The value of the dollar will weaken in 2019, which is great news for manufacturing but not for Don and Dee Plorable, or any of the rest of us for that matter.
Trump’s future depends on the market so I’d bet he’ll get something done on trade with China, more than likely a total capitulation with some face-saving for him thrown in. Barring that, there’s really nothing he can do to juice the markets with Pelosi holding the purse strings.
by Anonymous | reply 443 | January 3, 2019 7:45 PM |
There really isn't anything they could realistically do, anyway, r443, other than to remove the ignorant narcissistic buffoon in the White House. He's responsible for a good portion of this volatility.
by Anonymous | reply 444 | January 3, 2019 7:50 PM |
Closing soon and we're down roughly 2.5% on most of the major indices, other than the Russell 2000, which is down 0.8%. So no magic recovery today.
by Anonymous | reply 445 | January 3, 2019 7:51 PM |
-660 for the Dow. Who is Trump blaming now?
by Anonymous | reply 446 | January 3, 2019 8:02 PM |
The Dow is the one thing he can't excuse his way out of too. The group impacted by the market decline isn't Don and Dee Plorable, it's the wealthy people who know better.
by Anonymous | reply 447 | January 3, 2019 8:06 PM |
Won’t they try and spin it as the tariffs are hurting China? Nevermind that Apple is a US company and Apple failure will drag down the whole market.
by Anonymous | reply 448 | January 3, 2019 8:13 PM |
[quote] R441: I read earlier, [R439], that a weak jobs report may actually help the market in that it may signal no rate increases for the foreseeable future.
I think the best TV finance talking heads make a variety of overlapping or conflicting predictions so that they can eventually flaunt their success on the few cases where it works out, and then just quietly bury their earlier, erroneous predictions when they don’t work out.
by Anonymous | reply 449 | January 3, 2019 8:31 PM |
ADP can't find their asses with both hands.
by Anonymous | reply 450 | January 3, 2019 10:07 PM |
wow...that pic of Tim Cook is so scary! I also thought he was much, much older!
by Anonymous | reply 451 | January 3, 2019 10:53 PM |
Trump will try and spin it as helping him to forge a great “deal” with China. He will never admit his shitty economic policy ended up crashing the stock market.
by Anonymous | reply 452 | January 4, 2019 12:02 AM |
Futures markets little changed so far.
by Anonymous | reply 453 | January 4, 2019 12:27 AM |
R426, Gold isn't crashing. It was up almost to $1300/ounce, almost $100 more than six weeks ago.
by Anonymous | reply 454 | January 4, 2019 3:26 AM |
Whatever your bullshit president is doing is good for my mutual funds lately.
by Anonymous | reply 456 | January 4, 2019 3:35 AM |
But the exchange rate is lower, so you're fudging your numbers. That could be the reason.
by Anonymous | reply 457 | January 4, 2019 3:37 AM |
I think we are in a bear market that is just getting revved up. No one can afford a crappy iPhone unless they do payments. What’s the incentive to help them do better when the government is still shut down? Trump has skated by for two years with no major disaster. Until now.
by Anonymous | reply 458 | January 4, 2019 3:53 AM |
Nobody has commented that the entire US treasury rate has inverted? Three-year, five-year, 10 year are all underwater?
That’s the clear signal of a serious recession you ever see in the markets.
by Anonymous | reply 459 | January 4, 2019 3:53 AM |
R459, how soon before a recession starts? This quarter?
by Anonymous | reply 460 | January 4, 2019 3:56 AM |
Um, r459, you might want to read r3.
by Anonymous | reply 461 | January 4, 2019 4:13 AM |
Today I heard some republican blame it on Obama. Honestly, someone should stalk and kill these assholes.
by Anonymous | reply 462 | January 4, 2019 4:22 AM |
[quote]-660 for the Dow. Who is Trump blaming now?
I think some third-graders' tee-ball team in Sausalito that picks up plastic bottles for their community service.
by Anonymous | reply 463 | January 4, 2019 4:30 AM |
Wake up! America is in major debt with no plan. Fantasy land of constant profits is over.
by Anonymous | reply 464 | January 4, 2019 4:47 AM |
R461
Seriously? This is new as of today. The inversion across the entire curve is unprecedented since the GFC.
by Anonymous | reply 465 | January 4, 2019 5:35 AM |
R460
Who knows? Yield curve inversions almost always signal a recession, and coupled with the other problems, it seems inevitable.
It will be at least five months before we know, unless Q4 shows contraction (highly possible).
The question is how long the federal reserve will allow the bad investments to be liquidated before the pain becomes too great, and political pressures force them to lower interest rates.
If inflation begins to spread throughout the system because of failure of the IOER facility (It pays banks to keep funds at the federal reserve. They are paid a premium above the benchmark overnight rate so that the money does not enter the primary banking system. Any deviation in this could result in that money quickly entering the broader economy.) then we could have a massive recession and rising inflation simultaneously. In that case, the federal reserve would be forced to raise rates dramatically to curb inflation.Those higher rates would not be pleasant when you consider the fact that the government has to borrow $1 trillion a year on the market to pay for deficit spending.
The people predicting that this is a short term blip don’t pay attention to global economic news and don’t understand the failures of NeoKeynesians.
by Anonymous | reply 466 | January 4, 2019 5:43 AM |
The market is set to open up 300 on renewed optimism that talks between the US and China will lead to an end to the tarrif war.
by Anonymous | reply 467 | January 4, 2019 11:15 AM |
Probably the big driver for the market today will be the December jobs report. The consensus is that the unemployment rate will be essentially unchanged, with an increase in jobs.
by Anonymous | reply 468 | January 4, 2019 11:38 AM |
It is always worth bearing in mind that historically, stock market corrections have been a poor predictor of recessions. I've linked an article listing the many non-recessionary bear markets. By some measures, the market is now overall fairly priced, which in the absence of poor economic indicators might indicate that stocks will pick up again this year.
by Anonymous | reply 469 | January 4, 2019 11:59 AM |
The jobs report for December was much better than expected, with the largest growth in ten months. The jobless rate increased a little. There still seems to be no evidence of any recessionary trend, so it is not unreasonable to expect the bear market to be short-lived.
by Anonymous | reply 470 | January 4, 2019 1:24 PM |
Massive 312,000 Job Gain Casts Doubt On Gloom; Dow Jones Set To Rally
The U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December as the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%, the Labor Department reported on Friday. Average hourly wages grew 3.2%, the best since 2009. Dow Jones futures and the broader stock market largely maintained overnight gains following the jobs report as Wall Street tried to rebound from Thursday's sell-off on the bad Apple (AAPL) news.
Economists expected 180,000 new jobs, 3.7% unemployment and 3.0% wage growth.
Job gains for October and November were revised up by 58,000, leaving a monthly average gain of 254,000 jobs in the fourth quarter.
Fed Chairman Powell On The Clock The robust jobs report sets the stage for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who is expected to comment on the Fed policy outlook at an American Economic Association conference at 10:15 a.m. ET. Wall Street will key in on whether Fed Chairman Powell revises his Dec. 19 comment that the Fed's balance-sheet wind-down, known as quantitative tightening, would remain on autopilot.
The December jobs report was expected to be the first of a new era in which investors are no longer worried about future rate hikes. Markets were pricing in 0% odds of a rate hike this year and more than 50% odds of a rate cut by early 2020. Those odds reflect a Treasury yield curve that has inverted, with the 1-year Treasury yield higher than longer-term Treasury yields going out to the 7-year Treasury.
Economic growth is expected to slow markedly this year, with both monetary and fiscal policy turning from tailwinds to, at best, neutral by mid-2019. The weak Dow Jones and broader stock market, which seem to be pricing in something worse than a slowdown, could further dampen growth. Yet most economist still expect a soft landing, as long as trade war fears recede.
But even though the manufacturing sector hit some turbulence in December, the consumer economy and labor market are still showing signs of strength.
by Anonymous | reply 471 | January 4, 2019 1:27 PM |
Up 350 at the open.
by Anonymous | reply 472 | January 4, 2019 1:33 PM |
What sectors are creating jobs? Fast food?
by Anonymous | reply 473 | January 4, 2019 3:31 PM |
Not only did job growth accelerate, but wage growth was the highest since April 2009. Positive news all around.
by Anonymous | reply 474 | January 4, 2019 3:55 PM |
[quote]Positive news all around.
Positive news about past performance. The smart money looks at the future, the chumps look to the past. The problem is the future which looks dismal based on factory orders and the dead stop on sales in china due to Trump's absurd trade war. Get out now.
by Anonymous | reply 475 | January 4, 2019 3:59 PM |
For you, r473...
Large businesses added 54,000 jobs, while midsize firms added 129,000 and small companies increased employment by 89,000.
Service-providing jobs rose by 224,000, which included 66,000 jobs added in professional/business services and 61,000 new jobs in education/health services. The information sector posted the smallest increase, up by 6,000 jobs.
The goods-producing sector added 47,000 jobs, including 37,000 in construction.
The natural resources/mining sector posted the only employment decrease last month, down by 2,000 jobs.
by Anonymous | reply 476 | January 4, 2019 4:23 PM |
Thanks for the information. Hope it lasts.
by Anonymous | reply 477 | January 4, 2019 4:36 PM |
CNBC said there seems to be a lot of “panic buying” going on.
by Anonymous | reply 478 | January 4, 2019 6:16 PM |
I don’t believe this rally will last. Deficit is getting larger and growth will slow. With Trump at the helm, we are going to hit an iceberg.
by Anonymous | reply 479 | January 5, 2019 4:52 PM |
Anyone panic buying is, well, panicking.
The structural problems with the global economy, coupled with the structural defects of our current government system and the $220T in Unfunded Liabilities owed by the USGOV...
Another 40 percent drop would be the time to start buying.
by Anonymous | reply 480 | January 5, 2019 7:00 PM |
More people got work, good. But do they get enough salary to pay bills or are their salaries low and they need a second or third work?
by Anonymous | reply 481 | January 5, 2019 8:33 PM |
[quote]The natural resources/mining sector posted the only employment decrease last month, down by 2,000 jobs.
Where are the coal jobs, Mr. President?
by Anonymous | reply 482 | January 5, 2019 9:13 PM |
Aren’t the jobs numbers inflated because they include people who switched jobs? Beware anyone who tells you now is a good time to buy when stocks are still overvalued.
by Anonymous | reply 483 | January 5, 2019 9:22 PM |
R484, thanks for the link, but have you been reading this thread? We're all over the food stamps shutdown.
by Anonymous | reply 485 | January 6, 2019 2:38 AM |
I don't imagine that cutting off food stamp assistance will have much of an impact on stock prices.
by Anonymous | reply 486 | January 6, 2019 2:49 AM |
Oops, sorry I posted in the wrong thread.
by Anonymous | reply 487 | January 6, 2019 2:54 AM |
Do you actually think stocks will go up if retail is impacted and people are starving? I did not realize Paul Ryan posts here 😀
by Anonymous | reply 488 | January 6, 2019 2:58 AM |
Actually, food stamp dollars are some of the best form of Government stimulus. The stock market would react negatively to this.
by Anonymous | reply 489 | January 6, 2019 3:15 AM |
Democratic constituencies would react even more negatively.
No more SNAP would be devastating to urban cores.
by Anonymous | reply 490 | January 6, 2019 5:39 AM |
Cutting off SNAP would fuck up grocery stores and the corporate food producers. If Albertson's, Kroger's, CVS, Nestlé, etc. fear this becoming real, the pressure on Congress will be immense.
by Anonymous | reply 491 | January 6, 2019 12:44 PM |
R491
Ending SNAP benefits would be devastating to a large minority of people.
Unfortunately, the vast majority of SNAP beneficiaries reside in congressional districts that vote Democratic 10 to 1.
Donald Trump is the ultimate political viper.
He doesn’t give a fuck about anyone who isn’t inclined to vote for him or his supporters.
I can see a 5 month shutdown, including threats of salary reductions, mass layoffs, and Trump using every available power to make life miserable for people who traditionally vote for Democrats.
by Anonymous | reply 492 | January 7, 2019 4:15 AM |
I don’t think so. Trump will cave in the next week.
by Anonymous | reply 493 | January 7, 2019 4:20 AM |
R493
Why?
What pressure is on him to cave?
Republicans are doing okay under shutdown. Democrats are the people suffering.
by Anonymous | reply 494 | January 7, 2019 4:23 AM |
I hate to break it to you but even Republicans rely on government services.
by Anonymous | reply 495 | January 7, 2019 4:28 AM |
[quote]I don't imagine that cutting off food stamp assistance will have much of an impact on stock prices.
Read the link at r484.
It fucked up a lot of companies last time.
Shareholders of one company even sued because the company didn't tell them how bad a loss of SNAP customers would be for the company's profits.
by Anonymous | reply 496 | January 7, 2019 4:35 AM |
[quote]Why? What pressure is on him to cave? Republicans are doing okay under shutdown. Democrats are the people suffering.
Are you headless? Fuck L'Orange and all his bumpkins have signaled at every possible juncture that they do not know what the fuck they're doing here.
Under any scenario things go from annoyance to clusterfuck at about three weeks and actual death and destruction at about five to six weeks. And it is all on Individual-1.
Republican-leaning independents will suffer. Republicans will suffer. Deplorables will suffer.
He's about to realize that.
[quote]The Trump administration, which had not anticipated a long-term shutdown, recognized only this week the breadth of the potential impact, several senior administration officials said.
[quote]The officials said they were focused now on understanding the scope of the consequences and determining whether there is anything they can do to intervene.
And then he will stop.
Because he doesn't even have support the Senate for this crazy wall that he promised Mexico would pay for. Or, actually, even from his Secretaries and people in agencies like Treasury and Agriculture, which are already going to be fucked up beyond belief.
by Anonymous | reply 497 | January 7, 2019 5:01 AM |
Republicans, on average, can survive hardship far longer than Democrats.
Republicans, by their very nature, are conservative. Conservative people keep money in the bank, pantries stocked, and develop reciprocal relationships with members of their community to supplement other areas.
Democrats...don’t.
by Anonymous | reply 498 | January 7, 2019 5:13 AM |
You are high. The toothless Trump supporters do not have savings.
by Anonymous | reply 499 | January 7, 2019 5:16 AM |
R499
Half of Trump supporters are very poor.
The other half are worth at least $1 million in assets.
You think that people that support Trump are stupid. You cannot conceive of a world where this isn’t true.
That makes you extremely dangerous and probably stupid.
by Anonymous | reply 500 | January 7, 2019 5:46 AM |
You make up shit just like Kirstjen!
by Anonymous | reply 501 | January 7, 2019 5:50 AM |
Can we please keep this thread to the market and not have it devolve into one of the many other threads purely about the shutdown and/or Trump/and or Democrats vs Republicans.
Asian markets are trading higher as trade talks with the US begin. Dow futures are also up pointing to a modest increase at the open tomorrow.
by Anonymous | reply 502 | January 7, 2019 5:56 AM |
Okay, R500, half are stupid, the other half are stupid and worth at least $1 million in assets.
by Anonymous | reply 503 | January 7, 2019 5:57 AM |
Dow futures are effectively flat right now.
by Anonymous | reply 504 | January 7, 2019 11:23 AM |
Today, the markets are about where they were in Sept 2017. They are up about 17% from the 2016 election that Trump won. So, this may hurt when considering the lost paper profits from when the market was at its peak, but it’s not the end of the world.
by Anonymous | reply 505 | January 7, 2019 2:40 PM |
Dow futures up 195, so it looks like another positive day.
by Anonymous | reply 506 | January 8, 2019 11:22 AM |
Another big day so far on optimism that progress will be made in the China trade talks and analyst expectations that the FAANG stocks and the tech sector will experience strong growth in 2019.
by Anonymous | reply 507 | January 8, 2019 2:06 PM |
Dow futures up again, slightly.
by Anonymous | reply 508 | January 9, 2019 11:31 AM |
Thankfully, Trump's lie fest and Chuck and Nancy's American Gothic interpretation didn't hurt the market. I guess the market was expecting Trump to declare a state of emergency because it doesn't make sense to have the market up 200 with no quick resolution in sight to open the government
by Anonymous | reply 509 | January 9, 2019 2:00 PM |
He still might, R509. It's still early.
by Anonymous | reply 510 | January 9, 2019 2:17 PM |
It’s good the markets are making modest gains but is it even back to it’s high of last year?
by Anonymous | reply 511 | January 9, 2019 2:43 PM |
No, r511, we have about 3000 points. Something just happened. The intra day chart looks like a cliff. Now up only 25.
by Anonymous | reply 512 | January 9, 2019 2:54 PM |
Amazon will lead tomorrow. Down.
by Anonymous | reply 513 | January 10, 2019 4:34 AM |
Stocks up 2% for the week and several indices are out of correction territory.
by Anonymous | reply 515 | January 11, 2019 8:42 PM |
R515
That won’t last.
by Anonymous | reply 516 | January 12, 2019 12:01 AM |
Pacific Gas and Electric will be filing for bankruptcy this week.
They have more liabilities than Lehman.
Good luck.
by Anonymous | reply 517 | January 13, 2019 4:02 AM |
I wonder how much of that is related to the Camp Fire, r517.
by Anonymous | reply 518 | January 13, 2019 4:44 AM |
I am not optimistic for the market with shutdown 🙁
by Anonymous | reply 519 | January 13, 2019 4:53 AM |
Yeah, the first quarter earnings for 2019 will be abysmal. That's 800,000 government workers PLUS contractors that haven't been paid.
No money, no discretionary income to spend. How well do you think the market is going to hold up under that strain plus this stupid tariff war?
And farmers don't have their government payments to buy seed.
There is a recession coming sooner rather than later. Be ready.
Maybe this kick in the teeth is what trumptRds need to wake them the Fuck up.
by Anonymous | reply 521 | January 13, 2019 9:13 PM |
Every 2-weeks of a shutdown is .1 off GDP.
by Anonymous | reply 522 | January 13, 2019 9:34 PM |
R518
Mostly, but only because PG&E is perennially short cash. My partner worked there 20 years ago and it was a mess then.
No one will lend to it in this legal environment (ha) and it has 5% of the potential cash claims if the lawsuits are effective.
by Anonymous | reply 523 | January 13, 2019 11:48 PM |
R521
Yosemite is open, even though there are no government fixers to collect the $35 entry fee.
The hotels and tourism companies are paying $7k/day to keep toilets cleaned, trash emptied and roads ploughed.
Yosemite is open, but you don’t have to pay the $35 fee to enter, and everything you need from various enterprises surrounding it are ready for your business.
What is the argument from conversion into a nonprofit like Mt Vernon?
by Anonymous | reply 524 | January 13, 2019 11:55 PM |
So Yosemite is now a big homeless camp?
by Anonymous | reply 525 | January 13, 2019 11:57 PM |
Dow futures down 200.
by Anonymous | reply 526 | January 14, 2019 11:27 AM |
[quote]What is the argument from conversion into a nonprofit like Mt Vernon?
Joshua Tree.
by Anonymous | reply 527 | January 14, 2019 12:31 PM |
One trader is betting big the market holds up. If the S&P 500 drops below 2,100 by the end of next year, one Wall Street punter will face a costly — and now, high-profile — reckoning.
According to Trade Alert data cited by Reuters, an anonymous trader made waves in the options market on Monday by selling 19,000 put options on the S&P 500 SPX, +0.97% , which obligates him or her to buy the market benchmark if it drops 22% by December 18, 2020.
Sounds like a pretty big pullback, right? Keep in mind that the S&P closed 2018 almost 20% off its record high in September. Things change fast these days.
So, bottom line, should stocks emerge from all this government upheaval, earnings gloom and heightened volatility mostly unscathed, the wiley trader pockets $175 million in premiums. But if the wheels come off and the market turns ugly, it could deliver a loss of more than half a billion dollars.
As one investor told Reuters, however, there’s a high likelihood this trade was made as a hedge against another position, and not a straight-up bullish bet.
by Anonymous | reply 528 | January 15, 2019 7:20 PM |
The pic at R528 comes from a movie, Rogue Trader.
by Anonymous | reply 529 | January 15, 2019 8:44 PM |
John Bogle died today. Sad.
by Anonymous | reply 530 | January 16, 2019 11:43 PM |
I was just reading that, r530. Indeed. He had some good advice to investing.
by Anonymous | reply 531 | January 16, 2019 11:52 PM |
R531, it wasn't just advice. He is the Father of Index fund investing and the founder of Vanguard.
by Anonymous | reply 532 | January 17, 2019 12:43 AM |
Yes, I know, r523, but that doesn't mean he didn't dish out advice too.
by Anonymous | reply 533 | January 17, 2019 12:50 AM |
The market is in la la land. Even with a China deal, the reality of the deficit and anemic growth will set in sooner than people think.
by Anonymous | reply 534 | January 17, 2019 1:50 AM |
FML but I’m up too early.
Today will be interesting.
R528
VIX and recursive derivative exposure by every major financial institution worldwide (especially BOJ & PBOC) plus the massive margin calls that are just a few points from becoming nightmares are far more widespread, integrated and dangerous than they were a decade ago.
Financial nukes lurk in the vault of every G-SIB (Globally systemically important bank) and pension fund in the form of corporate paper that is rapidly becoming junk.
All eyes will be on London today.
by Anonymous | reply 535 | January 17, 2019 8:38 AM |
R534
There has been no growth in the United States or Europe for the past decade.
Excluding China, the entire world has been in a low-grade deflationary depression for a decade.
The bank bailouts and obscene financial position of the world economy in the last decade would have seemed impossible to conceive of 20 years ago.
House of cards, built on sand, with a tsunami approaching faster than Kevin Spacey at a high school musical.
by Anonymous | reply 536 | January 17, 2019 8:42 AM |
Yeah, so you've been claiming for over a decade now, Idiot Libertarian Troll. Has it entirely escaped your notice that nothing you predict ever comes true? No, there hasn't been a total economic collapse. No, there hasn't been "Weimar-level hyperinflation." No, gold isn't climbing to $20k an ounce. No, we aren't in a "low-grade deflationary depression," buzzwords which you clearly are copying from some other site, since you have no idea what you're talking about.
Over and over again, dozens of predictions, none of which ever come true. A smarter individual might ask themselves why.
by Anonymous | reply 537 | January 17, 2019 10:39 PM |
Market up 400 on rumor that China has found a way to reduce the trade deficit between us and them. Trump and his supporters will be insufferable if that happens.
by Anonymous | reply 538 | January 18, 2019 3:05 PM |
Here you go, r539. Apparently, China did make an offer.
by Anonymous | reply 540 | January 18, 2019 5:33 PM |
Unless wages go up and healthcare is guaranteed, there is no benefit to the average American worker from a China “deal.” This is the smoke and mirrors of the Trump administration—create a crisis, claim to fix it, and continue to increase the deficit.
by Anonymous | reply 541 | January 18, 2019 7:27 PM |
Another positive day with the Dow up 1.38%. Glad to see 2019 is off to a strong start!
by Anonymous | reply 542 | January 18, 2019 11:30 PM |
Futures down .56%
by Anonymous | reply 543 | January 22, 2019 11:35 AM |
Down more than 400 points.
by Anonymous | reply 545 | January 22, 2019 7:13 PM |
Down 300 on caterpillar earnings. Has the potential to be a volatile week with a Fed update and more high profile earnings.
by Anonymous | reply 546 | January 28, 2019 1:50 PM |
Dow up nearly 400 after fed says it will be patient with rate hikes.
by Anonymous | reply 547 | January 30, 2019 6:09 PM |
Still lots of panic buying.
by Anonymous | reply 548 | February 5, 2019 3:05 AM |
Today's futures are effectively flat. The volatility we saw last year has receded. If I were to hazard a guess it would be that the worst of the market correction is already past.
by Anonymous | reply 549 | February 6, 2019 11:52 AM |
Agreed, r549. I also think we're just a little over 1000 points away from the high.
by Anonymous | reply 550 | February 6, 2019 1:16 PM |
Stocks were bored with the SOTU
by Anonymous | reply 551 | February 6, 2019 7:04 PM |
I was too, r551.
by Anonymous | reply 552 | February 6, 2019 8:05 PM |
R551, I very much doubt that stocks have an opinion one way or another about the SOTU.
by Anonymous | reply 553 | February 6, 2019 10:57 PM |
The market is at a resistance point I don’t think it can pass. People are in denial about debt, especially corporate debt.
by Anonymous | reply 554 | February 7, 2019 5:00 AM |
Markets dropping again. Looks like there won't be trade talks with China before the deadline.
by Anonymous | reply 555 | February 7, 2019 4:54 PM |
Was it China that moved the market today?
It seems like we have a resistance point in this general area.
by Anonymous | reply 556 | February 7, 2019 5:15 PM |
We opened about 150 points lower, r556, but the big decline didn't happen until after CNBC reported the news on the China trade talks. Looks like we're bouncing back a bit now.
by Anonymous | reply 557 | February 7, 2019 5:30 PM |
What was the China deadline? Ty.
by Anonymous | reply 558 | February 7, 2019 6:13 PM |
March 1.
by Anonymous | reply 559 | February 7, 2019 6:21 PM |
Markets down almost a percent today. My tech mutual fund is not priced yet, but probably down over a percent.
by Anonymous | reply 560 | February 7, 2019 8:16 PM |
The market seems vulnerable -the Trump Train is out of gas, except flatulence.
by Anonymous | reply 561 | February 8, 2019 2:08 AM |
The markets ended mostly flat today, by my reckoning.
by Anonymous | reply 562 | February 8, 2019 9:38 PM |
Yup, only down about 60, which is better than where it was most of the day. I wonder if we'll see the volatility come back now that earnings season is over and the focus will be back to the pending shutdown and trade talks.
by Anonymous | reply 563 | February 8, 2019 10:17 PM |
No China deal means tick tocos for the bull market. Soon it will be Spring and Summer and then⬇️
by Anonymous | reply 564 | February 9, 2019 5:55 AM |
Dow up big today for no good reason.
by Anonymous | reply 565 | February 12, 2019 9:14 PM |
Rumor has it a compromise was reached on the wall a shutdown was averted, r565. I think you have the flight attendant's union to thank. They had a press conference yesterday threatening a slowdown if there was another shutdown. Recall, It was the canceling of flights and the mess at Laguardia Airport that forced the three week reprieve.
by Anonymous | reply 566 | February 12, 2019 9:23 PM |
I created a thread about how the affected people were going to have to suffer, prompting them to react, before this matter ended, and the thread was FF’d and closed in minutes, literally. Guess what? I was right. As soon as flights were disrupted by Labor; coinciding with action by another group, I think it was teachers, as soon as that, the VERY NEXT DAY, there was a deal announced. Don’t shoot me, I don’t make the rules.
It’s either that, or the Dems would have lost. It’s not enough that people on vacation at a National Park are inconvenienced. Or anyone inconvenienced. We needed a disruption of commerce to end this. As soon as the shutdown started costing Business a considerable sum, since the shutdown was pointless anyway, that’s when it ended.
by Anonymous | reply 567 | February 12, 2019 9:46 PM |
I'm not sure why people would FF that, it's reasonable. Visible signs of economic loss greater than that of individual people was really the only thing that was going to end it.
by Anonymous | reply 568 | February 12, 2019 9:56 PM |
While I am happy if there is no shutdown, isn’t this an artificial catalyst for market growth?
by Anonymous | reply 569 | February 12, 2019 10:00 PM |
Yeah, that tax cut was just amazing. The best tax cut ever.
/s
by Anonymous | reply 571 | February 12, 2019 10:09 PM |
I have seen a couple of disaster preludes:
1. Approximately 7 million Americans are more than 90 days late on auto loan payments
2. Prices are rising faster than expected
by Anonymous | reply 572 | February 14, 2019 3:49 AM |
I saw on the news today, that Americans are at a high for credit card debt as measured by Zzzzzzzz. Then I fell asleep, but it didn’t sound good.
by Anonymous | reply 573 | February 14, 2019 3:59 AM |
I mostly missed the recent rebound, I must admit, but I think that’s short money. I still think their will be market mayhem when the Mueller Report breaks. Also when China trade is settled. Trump likes to inflict some pain on, well, anyone he can, and then settle on some agreement. There will either be big money to be made or lost, depending on how things break, but it will be big money.
by Anonymous | reply 574 | February 14, 2019 4:18 AM |
Yeah. Money down the drain. Trump is terrible at business and great at bankruptcy. His economic team is a joke.
by Anonymous | reply 575 | February 14, 2019 4:50 AM |
R572
You can only print a few trillion dollars before it starts to dilute the value of the existing dollars, resulting in more competition for goods. In layman‘s terms, when you print money it makes every other dollar less valuable, and prices inevitably adjust to that new reality of weaker dollar value.
I’m sure that Paul Krugman would find some criticism with that simple assessment, but that’s only because it doesn’t serve his Keynesian bullshit.
by Anonymous | reply 576 | February 14, 2019 4:51 AM |
But are they printing more dollars that usual? Or typical?
Keynesian Economics are really just common sense at this point.
by Anonymous | reply 577 | February 14, 2019 4:55 AM |
How, r577?
You do realize that if you keep printing money at anincreasing rate, eventually the money will be worthless?
There’s this little place called Venezuela that is experiencing exactly what I have been talking about.
by Anonymous | reply 578 | February 14, 2019 5:23 AM |
[quote]I’m sure that Paul Krugman would find some criticism with that simple assessment, but that’s only because it doesn’t serve his Keynesian bullshit.
Actually, it's because that "simple assessment" is directly contradicted by all of the available evidence, most notably the evidence of the past dozen years. Per your "simple assessment," we should be facing that "Weimar-level hyperinflation" you repeatedly warned us about. Or that "50% inflation" that your idol, Ron Paul, claimed would be here by mid-2012. The fact that neither of these has happened would, to a smarter person, show that your theories are wrong. Sadly, you aren't that person.
Oh, and what's happening in Venezuela has jack shit to do with anything that is happening in the United States.
by Anonymous | reply 579 | March 6, 2019 2:36 PM |
But...but...bad things happened to Germany in the 1920s, proving that ... whatever... the US must remain fearful! Back to the gold standard and let’s get rid of electrical appliances while we are at it!
by Anonymous | reply 580 | March 6, 2019 2:51 PM |
[quote]But are they printing more dollars that usual? Or typical?
They printed more than normal, and took on more debt than normal, as a result of the financial meltdown of 2008. They really had no choice, as one very real possibility otherwise was worldwide financial calamity. In the past couple of years, they've been raising rates, tightening the money supply, and selling off some of their debt. That doesn't fit into the world view of the Idiot Libertarian Troll, so he will simply ignore that.
[quote]Keynesian Economics are really just common sense at this point.
Yup. Over the past dozen years, those economic theories have held up far better than have, say, the theories of Austrian economics, which are the ILT's favorite.
by Anonymous | reply 581 | March 6, 2019 4:03 PM |
[quote] R581: selling off some of their debt.
As I understand it, until recently, whenever the bonds, purchase by Treasury during the crash, matured, they were replaced. Now, I think they are simply not replacing bonds as they mature. This means that their holdings will gradually dissipate over time. I’m not sure that they are outright “selling” anything in their portfolio.
by Anonymous | reply 582 | March 7, 2019 4:05 AM |
R582
Domestic entities are absorbing all new US debt. Japan and China have reduced their holdings.
The idiots that don’t understand that every extra dollar that is created reduces the value of the existing dollars by a fraction.
When that base of dollars quadruples in a decade, the eventual result is massive inflation.
The only reason we have not seen inflation yet is because the “too big to fail” banks have kept the extra money in excess reserves parked at the federal reserve.
When the federal reserve loses control of the economy, that massive amount of fake money will flood the US economy and causes tremendous harm to the vast majority of citizens.
Keynesians are too blinded by their love of BIG GOV to understand that.
Their complete lack of understanding of basic economics is extraordinary.
Anyone who thinks that Paul Krugman is anything more than a hack is retarded.
by Anonymous | reply 583 | March 7, 2019 5:01 AM |
R582
I have oceanfront property in Arizona that I would like to sell you.
Gullibility is one of the main reasons that these people were allowed to destroy our monetary stability. People like you are simply too ignorant to understand what is happening.
by Anonymous | reply 584 | March 7, 2019 5:04 AM |
R583 / R584, I wish you would sign your posts. You’re obviously intelligent, but your posts are wrong in every way possible.
by Anonymous | reply 585 | March 7, 2019 9:14 PM |
Trump is hoping the market soars to win him reelection. It’s due for another Christmas crash.
by Anonymous | reply 586 | March 8, 2019 2:34 AM |
R583 it is unusual to see so much wrongness packed into one post. The idea that extra money creation reduces the value of outstanding money by some fraction is simply ludicrous. Consider taking a course in macro-economics before trying to pontificate on the subject.
by Anonymous | reply 587 | March 8, 2019 10:52 AM |
[quote]Domestic entities are absorbing all new US debt. Japan and China have reduced their holdings.
Stupidly false, of course, which is why you don't even bother to try to support that silly statement.
[quote]The idiots that don’t understand that every extra dollar that is created reduces the value of the existing dollars by a fraction.
We understand it; we just happen to recognize that it's more complicated than that out here in the real world, which is why nothing that has happened in the past dozen years has gone the way you predicted. You have literally got a 0.000 track record in predictions about the economy.
[quote]When that base of dollars quadruples in a decade, the eventual result is massive inflation.
And yet, we do not in the U.S. currently have that "massive inflation," despite the actions of the Fed. A smarter person might have figured out that their theories were incorrect when nothing they predict ever comes true.
[quote]The only reason we have not seen inflation yet is because the “too big to fail” banks have kept the extra money in excess reserves parked at the federal reserve.
Also stupidly false, although nice try at covering your ass.
[quote]When the federal reserve loses control of the economy, that massive amount of fake money will flood the US economy and causes tremendous harm to the vast majority of citizens.
Uh-huh. We'll take that just as seriously as your other predictions of total meltdown. And no, we're not going to start stockpiling silver and gold.
[quote]Keynesians are too blinded by their love of BIG GOV to understand that.
Everything I have predicted over the past dozen years has come true. Everything you have predicted over the past dozen years has been rather stupidly false. Which of us "doesn't understand?"
[quote]Their complete lack of understanding of basic economics is extraordinary.
Oh, the irony ... and the projection. Funny how you can't actually point to anything that Keynesians like Paul Krugman got wrong.
[quoteAnyone who thinks that Paul Krugman is anything more than a hack is retarded.
And yet he's been far more right than you or than anyone you worship, including Ron Paul. What does that say about you?
by Anonymous | reply 588 | March 8, 2019 11:25 PM |
[quote]R583 / R584, I wish you would sign your posts. You’re obviously intelligent, but your posts are wrong in every way possible.
He's the Idiot Libertarian Troll, who's been infesting this site for 15 years or more. He posts complete gibberish, then attacks anyone who dares to disagree with him, tossing out his usual litany of childish insults. And no, he's not intelligent. He really isn't.
One example: he's a gold bug, who has previously predicted that gold was going to climb to $20k/ounce, back when it was clearly in a bubble. The same year the bubble popped, he cross-posted a blog post here that claimed that gold couldn't possibly be in a bubble and that it was the best investment of the year thus far. Even ignoring just how badly wrong it was about the bubble, the post was simply wrong on the facts. Stocks were a better investment than gold that year, by a couple of percentage points. When this was pointed out to the ILT, he responded by saying that we were too stupid to understand the post. Oh, and to this day, he has continued to deny that gold was ever in a bubble or that the bubble ever popped.
His modus operandi is always the same: cross-post something incredibly stupid, then lash out with childish insults when challenged. He's anti-Fed, a libertarian, a gold bug, a Ron Paul devotee, and he's quite literally always wrong. He's posted hundreds of predictions here over the years and not a single one has ever come true. He thinks that socialism, fascism, and communism are all identical and he thinks that pretty much every country in the world is utterly doomed. He has repeatedly insisted that problems in Greece, Venezuela, China, etc., are all exactly the same and they all forecast doom for the U.S. I'm not making any of this up.
Laugh at him or ignore him but don't make the mistake of taking him seriously or trying to engage him in a rational debate. He is simply incapable of this.
by Anonymous | reply 589 | March 8, 2019 11:34 PM |
[quote] The idea that extra money creation reduces the value of outstanding money by some fraction is simply ludicrous.
It's an article of faith in Austrian economics. In fact, it's their own special definition of inflation. From mises.org:
[quote]Similarly, the essence of inflation is not a general rise in prices but an increase in the supply of money, which in turns sets in motion a general increase in the prices of goods and services.
And it really is all about faith. That's why even though he's been proved wrong over and over again, the ILT will never admit this because it would be like a Christian deciding that Christ never existed. It would destroy his whole world.
[quote]Consider taking a course in macro-economics before trying to pontificate on the subject.
See above about faith.
by Anonymous | reply 590 | March 8, 2019 11:38 PM |
How long can the US go with so much debt and a ballooning deficit? It’s all a house of cards.
by Anonymous | reply 591 | March 8, 2019 11:39 PM |
Quite a long time, R591, although you're correct that at some point the Republicans are going to have to accept that we need to raise taxes. There are multiple ways to handle the situation in the U.S. today but they all depend on having a sane party to negotiate with.
by Anonymous | reply 592 | March 8, 2019 11:40 PM |
But at some point, doesn’t it all crash because there is too much debt? I feel like this is the dirty secret that Wall Street doesn’t want people to know.
by Anonymous | reply 593 | March 8, 2019 11:45 PM |
You have to look on debt as a percentage of GDP, r593. Yes, it needs to be paid but there are multiple tools at our disposal for dealing with this. We're not at crisis stage yet, although we will be if we continue down this path.
by Anonymous | reply 594 | March 8, 2019 11:48 PM |
Payments on our debt are about to exceed military spend and it's only going to get worse as interest rates increase.
by Anonymous | reply 596 | March 9, 2019 12:06 AM |
Agree. And Trump is pressuring the Fed to be hands free just to get re-elected.
by Anonymous | reply 598 | March 9, 2019 12:12 AM |
And they're ignoring him, thankfully, just as they are supposed to do.
by Anonymous | reply 599 | March 10, 2019 2:39 PM |
Closing out the thread.
by Anonymous | reply 600 | March 10, 2019 2:39 PM |
Yes indeed, we too use "cookies." Take a look at our privacy/terms or if you just want to see the damn site without all this bureaucratic nonsense, click ACCEPT. Otherwise, you'll just have to find some other site for your pointless bitchery needs.
Become a contributor - post when you want with no ads!