July 29, 2013
[quote]Weiner Should Drop Out, NYC Likely Dem Voters Tell Quinnipiac University Poll; Quinn Leads, With De Blasio, Thompson Tied For Second
Quinn - 27%
De Blasio - 21%
Thompson - 20%
Weiner - 16%
Congressman Anthony Weiner drops to fourth place among likely Democratic primary voters in the race for New York City mayor as these likely voters say 53 - 40 percent he should drop out, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
There is almost no gender gap, but a wide racial gap on this question: Women say 54 - 42 percent that Weiner should drop out, compared to men at 52 - 37 percent. But black voters say 53 - 42 percent that Weiner should stay in the race, while white voters say 64 - 25 percent he should get out.
Weiner gets 16 percent of likely Democratic primary voters today, compared to his first- place position with 26 percent in a July 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University.
City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leads the Democratic pack with 27 percent, with 21 percent for Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, 20 percent for former Comptroller William Thompson, 6 percent for Comptroller John Liu and 2 percent for former Council member Sal Albanese, the poll finds. Seven percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided.
If Weiner drops out, Quinn gets 30 percent, with 25 percent each for Thompson and de Blasio and 9 percent for Liu.
"With six weeks to go, anything can happen, but it looks like former Congressman Anthony Weiner may have sexted himself right out of the race for New York City mayor," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"And with Wiener in free-fall, it begins to look like a three-way race again."
A July 24 Quinnipiac University poll showed Quinn at 30 percent if Weiner drops out, with 26 percent for Thompson and 21 percent for de Blasio.
In today's survey, Weiner gets 24 percent of black Democratic likely primary voters, down from 31 percent last week. Thompson gets 22 percent, with 21 percent for Quinn and 16 percent for de Blasio. Weiner's support among white voters drops from 23 percent last week to 7 percent today.
Having a "strong personal moral character" doesn't describe Weiner at all, 38 percent of New York City likely Democratic primary voters say, compared to 26 percent who said "not at all" last week. A total of 14 percent say having moral character characterizes Weiner a great deal or a good amount, compared to 17 percent last week.
Weiner's behavior is a legitimate issue in the mayoral campaign, voters say 65 - 34 percent.
This behavior disqualifies him from consideration as a candidate, 40 percent of voters say, compared to 23 percent last week. Another 40 percent say this behavior is a factor, but doesn't disqualify him and 20 percent say it is not a factor at all.
Thompson leads Quinn 50 - 40 percent in a Democratic primary runoff. He leads 53 - 41 percent among men, 49 - 40 percent among women, 49 - 40 percent among white voters and 58 - 33 percent among black voters.
Based on results of last week's poll, de Blasio was not included in a runoff question.
"Don't bet your paycheck. This is a really goofy election year," Carroll said.
"Lots of potential voters have been staying home in primaries and this poll evaluates those who are likely to turn up September 10. This is our second survey of these likely Democratic primary voters, a more nuanced look than earlier surveys of all registered voters."
From July 24 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 446 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.