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Trudeau’s Liberals hit historic highs as senate scandal has ‘drastic effect’ on Tories: poll


With the Conservatives ensnarled in the biggest political scandal in their seven years in government, a new poll suggests Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are en route to winning a massive majority in the next election.

More than four in 10 Canadians, 44%, said they would vote Liberal in the next federal election, according to latest Forum Poll for the National Post, compared to 27% support for the ruling Conservatives and 20% for the opposition NDP.

The Liberals would claim 192 seats in the 308-seat House of Commons with that support, leaving the Tories with 77 and dropping the NDP all the way back to 37.

The poll comes after Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s chief of staff, Nigel Wright, resigned when it was revealed he gave Senator Mike Duffy a $90,000 personal cheque to cover the senator’s housing expenses. The terms of the deal remain unknown, although the controversy does not appear to be dying as new documents show a Tory-dominated Senate committee whitewashed a report into Duffy’s expenses.

Harper has denied any knowledge of the deal and said he was “frustrated and sorry and angry” over what occurred.

But the repeated controversies within the senate — two Conservative senators, Duffy and Pamela Wallin, quit the caucus amid expense audits and a third, Sen. Patrick Brazeau, was booted out from caucus amid criminal charges — have hurt the prime minister, pollsters say.

“Mr. Harper’s very bad week has had a drastic effect on his approval and his party’s. It doesn’t help, when the Liberals are surging as they have been, to be stonewalling a controversy. Justin Trudeau needs only to listen to ['Art of war' author] Sun Tzu, and stay out of the way. Meanwhile, the NDP appear to have functionally ceded the role of the opposition to the Liberals in the public’s mind,” Forum Research President Lorne Bozinoff said in a statement.

The poll comes not long after the Liberals easily bested a former Conservative cabinet minister in a byelection. Yvonne Jones defeated incumbent Peter Penashue by 16 percentage points in the Labrador byelection, earlier this May.

Trudeau, the son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, is proving to be massively popular on a personal level, with his approval rating as high as Harper’s is low.

Trudeau’s net favourable rating [approval minus disapproval] is an impressive +23, with his 49% approval the highest ever registered for a party leader in a Forum poll.

Meanwhile, Harper’s net favourable rating is a dismal -35 and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is a mediocre +3.

Trudeau’s Liberals are drawing their support from women (48%), the least-wealthy Canadians (56%), Atlantic Canadians (57%) and both those who have seen the Conservative attack ads on Trudeau (48%) and the Liberals’ response ads (50%).

The public’s response to the Conservative attack ads — which show Trudeau performing a mock strip tease at a charity event and declare the new leader “in over his head” — suggest that the Tories have not been able to define their Liberal opponent the way they did with former leaders Michael Ignatieff and Stephane Dion.

The poll of 1,779 randomly-chosen Canadians was conducted by Forum Research between May 21 and May 22, 2013. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2806/03/2013

On a completely superficial note, Justin Trudeau would be the cutest PM in Canadian history. The 90s saw Cool Britannia, maybe Justin can usher in Cool Canada.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 105/23/2013


by 2013 Poll Trollreply 205/23/2013

What about recent antics of that greedy, crackhead, hypocrite Conservative buffoon of that Mayor of Toronto. Won't that further bring the party down?

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 305/23/2013

Hello dear friends north of Maine, is this good news or bad news?

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 405/23/2013


by 2013 Poll Trollreply 505/24/2013

This is the same polling firm that said Wildrose would win the Alberta election, and the NDP would win B.C.

So I don't take these numbers seriously.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 605/24/2013

Most of us didn't vote for shithead,er,Harper in the first place. So what difference does it make.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 705/24/2013

When is the next election due?

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 805/24/2013


by 2013 Poll Trollreply 905/24/2013

yeah, it's nice, but I don't take polls a year ahead of an election seriously either. Harper & Co are good at manufacturing lies and propaganda come election time.

I'd also like to know how much of Harper's destruction Trudeau would overturn. He seems a bit vague.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1005/24/2013

Much as I hate to say it, won't you all be surprised when the hidden vote returns the conservatives to power in 2015.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1105/24/2013

Are the Canadians planning to invade New Hampshire?

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1205/24/2013

I wish we Americans had scandals like this one. I'm so bored with Benghazi-gate.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1305/24/2013

I hope Justin never cuts off his beautiful curls.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1405/24/2013

Cute = lightweight.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1505/24/2013

What's wrong with paying for someone's housing?

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1605/24/2013

I'm glad the Reform/Conservative Party is finally being dumped. Remember in Canada, the "Tea Party" types won control of the right wing party, unlike in the USA where they fizzled out.

I am less than trilled with the Liberal Party's recent leader, Bob Rae, who came to the defense of the anti-gay Crossroads Ministry for promoting violence again Gay Canadians on their website, while taking taxpayer money.

I really would like the NDP to form the government, but I know that is not going to happen, so I will support the Liberals just to get the Reform/Conservatives out. Hopefully the NDP will keep leader of the opposition.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1705/25/2013

[10] the GOP tried the same against Obama, it did not work

[17] A similar thing is happening in the UK where the UK Tea Party, UKIP, is rising in the polls

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1805/25/2013

The good thing is this new extreme right wing is splitting the right wing parties world-wide, ultimately ending their chance of getting into power again. UKIP will divide the UK Conservative Party. The Anti-abortion - anti-gay faction of Harpers Conservative Party in Canada, is already starting to make noise. In the USA, the Mitt Romney/Tea Party types are actually being pushed out by fiscal Conservatives.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1905/25/2013

[19] The same thing is happening in France where polls show Marine Le Pen and FN would knock out any right-wing candidate other than Sarkozy in Round 1, in Germany a eurosceptic party is also rising in the polls and taking CDU votes. However it will not stop conservatives ever getting into power again, it just means they will have to come round to PR or AV, ironic considering it used to be thought the split left benefited from PR and conservatives used to oppose it!

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2005/25/2013

Germany has Merkel She is vocally anti-gay and Germans don't mind. That is a German thing which goes back to the 1930s.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2105/25/2013

[quote]Justin does Toronto

It takes him a solid five minutes just to make the short walk to the door, because everyone wants to get a photo with him. For what it’s worth, I was at this same conference room a couple weeks ago to see Tom Mulcair give a speech, and no one asked for a photo.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2205/31/2013

R19 is correct. There's a reason Harper tried to keep a lid on the extremists in his party. Not keep them OUT of the party mind you, just prevent them from talking too much.

Harper knows that most Canadians who vote conservative are "soft" conservatives. People who want lower taxes, less waste, more money in their pockets, etc. They don't want to talk about abortion (done deal), gay marriage (done deal), or any other personal/social issue. The social extremists would scare those voters away, probably driving them to the Liberals.

These are also people who are against corruption and arrogance in government, which is exactly what they're seeing now.

It always happens, though. No matter which party it is the longer they stay in power the more corrupt and arrogant they get. That's why the Liberals tanked and needed a time out. It's almost time for Canadians to give the Conservatives a much-needed time out.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2305/31/2013

The Cons don't need a time out, the party needs to collapse again and come back to a Canadian version of the Progressive Conservatives.

Too many Tea Party/Reformers in this new Conservative party.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2405/31/2013

[quote] Too many Tea Party/Reformers in this new Conservative party.

Who act like red Tories so they can stay in power

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2505/31/2013

Follow Justin Trudeau on Twitter! He's up to nearly 230,000.

The only Canadian politician who has more Twitter followers than Justin Trudeau is PM Harper who's at 300,000+.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2606/02/2013

The right wing loons, dominating the Conservative Party today, have benefited from the gross incompetence running the Liberal party, to keep their power.

That has all changed now. The Cons are doomed.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2706/03/2013

Hopefully, R27. But we should not get overconfident. You can't rule out the Conservatives. They are corrupt (and were involved in electoral fraud in 2011) so they should not be underestimated.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2806/03/2013
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