The most skeptical will begin to open their eyes this summer when massive droughts lead to food shortages.
In 2015, I believe it will become obvious to all as the stock market and the American dollar loses it's value-eventually so steeply that our country will accept the "new currency."
The porous border with Mexico and the increase in lawless drug cartel violence is a purposeful scheme to give the U.S. coverage to "restore order." This will soon result in the first great merger of the eventual North American Union. Central America will quickly fall in line. Seizing/Coercing the Caribbean Islands will probably be our first priority as the U.S. will raid the wealth of tax havens to pay our national expenses-particularly the debt/deficit.
The wild card is Canada.
1) Because it "doesn't need us."
2) Because the North Polar Region will "The New Middle East." Canada, The US (Alaska), Russia, Finland, Norway and Denmark (Greenland) will battle over sovereignty issues of the oil-rich unfrozen Arctic Ocean. I feel the U.K. will seek stronger Commonwealth ties with Canada in order to have a stake in this new "Gold Rush." Canada will likely reciprocate in order to strengthen it's position as an independent nation. I wonder if perhaps Canada might even be allowed membership in the European Union, due to that Commonwealth status.
The Middle East, by this time, will be largely ignored as their oil runs dry and they are no longer needed. I believe they will be disarmed-except for Israel and possibly Turkey (if it is accepted into the European Union.)
Before a global government is attempted, large regional unions will likely be put in place I order to more smoothly facilitate this transition.
Africa, I'm afraid, will steadily depopulate due to AIDS and diseases (including HIV and sterilization drugs) administered on a mass scale by groups such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The elite will justify this by reasoning that the Congo Rainforest, Savannah and all remaining wilderness areas must be protected to preserve some stabilization of the global climate and halt the desertification that will increase dramatically in the next few years.
I think it's obvious what lies ahead for South America due to an Argentinian Pope.
I don't expect an increase of hostility against gays. It would stand to reason that people seen as foreigners who will actually be fellow members of these large unions will be the cause of friction-politically and culturally.
These are just extrapolations, of course. Only some of my "best guesses." But, I thought it would be okay to share them in this thread.