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Justin Trudeau would win next Canadian election for Liberals, poll shows

Fri Mar 8, 2013

OTTAWA (Reuters) - The Liberals would return to power in the next Canadian election if, as expected, they choose the son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau to head the party, according to an opinion poll released on Friday.

The Forum Research poll showed the Liberals with Justin Trudeau as leader would be able to replace the Conservatives in power, albeit with a minority government, if an election were held today.

The center-left Liberals governed Canada for much of the 20th century, but fell to third place in the 2011 election. That left them behind the left-leaning New Democrats for the first time in history as the Conservatives turned their previous minority government into a majority one.

The Forum poll showed the Liberals under Trudeau would take 39 percent of the vote if an election were held now, compared with 32 percent for the Conservatives, and 20 percent for the New Democrats.

An election is not due until 2015, and the Conservatives have not yet ground Trudeau through their formidable advertising machine, making it impossible to predict if the poll figures will hold.

"Justin Trudeau continues to solidify his position at the top of the pops," the National Post newspaper, which ran the poll, quoted Forum President Lorne Bozinoff as saying.

Trudeau is a magnetic 41-year-old former teacher and ski instructor who has attracted 150,000 supporters to the Liberal Party during his leadership campaign, more than all the other leadership candidates combined. He heads into the April 14 convention as the heavy favorite.

His flamboyant father held power from 1968 to 1979 and again from 1980 to 1984. He died in 2000.

Justin Trudeau's popular support comes despite widespread doubts in Ottawa on whether he has the clout to become prime minister. He has given few specifics on how he would run Canada other than offering generic goals such as protecting and expanding the middle class.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 3804/16/2013

Nonsense. And I am for the first time in my life reconsidering supporting the Liberal party. He doesn't bring much to the table but nepotism.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 103/08/2013

Not after he starts speaking. Martha is the best choice.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 203/10/2013

R1, Trudeau still has to prove himself in terms of depth of policy knowledge, but he actually has demonstrated a lot of strength in terms of fundraising and organization - things which are pivotal to compete with Stephen Harper.

R2, Martha Hall Findlay lost her own seat in the last election and came across as too aggressive in the debates. She has some strengths, but needs to win back her riding first.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 303/10/2013

I don't believe this.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 403/10/2013

Not going to happen, and not only that, Liberals have no shot at winning period.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 503/10/2013

What exactly is the difference between the NDP and the Liberals?

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 603/10/2013

Why so negative, R5?

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 703/10/2013

NDP is further to the left in general. It's more like the european Labour parties whereas the Liberals are similar to the US Democratic party, which is basically pretty corporate still.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 803/10/2013

Because, r7, reality is a bitch. Canada has changed.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 903/10/2013

They are both leftist parties R6, but the NDP is much further left on the political spectrum (with awesome socialist ideas that would probably give the Bill O'Reilly's of the world a heart attack)

It's actually been a bit of a problem here to have so many left-wing parties. (there is also The Green Party, who are even further left of the NDP) because it splits the left vote in Canada 3 ways, while there is only 1 major Conservative party.

Also NDP stands for New Democrat Party.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1003/10/2013

Yes, Canada has changed, R9, as have all countries. What's your point?

The Liberal Party has had bad leaders in recent elections and lost support, but they have the potential to reverse that now. Remember that the NDP is now without Jack Layton, and many people do not like Thomas Mulcair.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1103/10/2013

Mulcair is very popular, especially in Quebec, which is what it takes to win. For the first time ever the NDP seems to be serious about forming a government instead of being pure and righteous opposition members.

The Liberals are more or less Conservative lite - just as fiscally conservative and friends of big business but lefty on the social issues.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1203/10/2013

You seem like an NDP supporter, R12. That's what they always claim.

Yes, Mulcair has some popularity in Quebec, but not as much as Layton, and his numbers are going down now that the BQ is taking away support and now that Justin Trudeau is coming on board.

What it also takes to win actually is support in Ontario and the other parts of Canada. And Mulcair's numbers there are going down. Remember that Harper became PM with virtually no seats in Quebec.

Mulcair also comes across as a grumpy old man compared to the effervescent Layton.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1303/10/2013

[quote]Yes, Canada has changed, [R9], as have all countries.

Yes, they have changed socially and politically over time. Canada has changed politically. It is no longer a liberal oasis. It had a nice ride, but the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction. The Right has a hold on the country. The libs won't win the next election, or the election after that. The left's supporters can throw temper tantrums to spit reality all they want.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1403/10/2013

Votez Bloc!

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1503/10/2013

R14, Harper is disliked in many parts of the country, particularly Quebec. He couldn't even get to 40% in 2011, and he is down in the low 30's in the current polls.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1603/10/2013

R8 and R10, thanks for answering my question.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1703/10/2013

It doesn't matter that Harper is disliked, or hated - all he needs is the reliable idiots and scumbags that will always vote for him and to have the opposition divided into three, or four, or five parties. He will get elected. The press has never seriously reported on him. Ever.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1803/10/2013

So Jennifer Aniston could be the First Lady of Canada? Fuck you, Angelina!

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 1903/10/2013

Your powers of deduction are truly astounding, r12. And you seem like a Liberal supporter pining for a bygone era.

Pull all the numbers out of your ass you like, your boy JT is just a pretty face. He's nowhere near ready to be PM. He's already alienated the entire province of Alberta with some stupid comments. He'll fade in popularity as soon as he starts yapping again.

Mulcair comes across as intelligent and progressive. We don't need a dynasty. Leave that to the US with Bushes l & ll.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2003/10/2013

r20 is vewwy angwy. Given the huge majority of the public that doesn't want a Conservative government, isn't there some way to get the NDP and the Greens and the Liberals and the Bloc to divvy up the ridings where the Conservatives are vulnerable and stop fragmenting the non-rightwing vote? If you look at the results from the last election, there was one riding after another where the NDP and Liberals split the vote and allowed the Conservative candidate to win with far less than 50 percent. It's ritual suicide NOT to cooperate.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2103/10/2013

Justin Trudeau is a demagogue just like the rest of the Liberal elite and nobody would give a flying fuck about him if his last name wasn't Trudeau.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2203/10/2013

Not angry at all, Elmer. And being a pragmatist, I'm not at all opposed to the centre/left parties getting together. That's what the Reform/PCs did, after all. The current Tory government was elected with much less than 50% of the popular vote as you must know.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2303/10/2013

"Trudeau is a demagogue!" Ha. If only. Trudeau is Baby-Trudeau-Lite and the Liberals are Conservative-Lite.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2403/10/2013

R21, Mulcair has said he won't co-operate, so the Liberals and NDP won't be working together before the next election. Maybe some day, but not as early as 2015.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2503/10/2013

After the Conservatives unleash their negative ads, then take another poll.

Many Conservatives were on the Sunday AM Talk shows today saying Justin is getting a free ride from the media.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2603/10/2013

R26, people are getting sick of negative ads. Is that all the Conservatives have?

And if I were the Conservatives, I wouldn't talk about getting a free ride in the media.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2703/10/2013


Justin is pretty and attracts younger voters. The Tories have gone into damage control mode, dragging out Laureen Harper for an interview this weekend. "My husband just loves cats!"

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2803/10/2013

Justin also attracts older voters who voted for his father.

And unlike Michael Ignatieff, he knows how to raise money and is building up a war chest in the bank right now in case he has to respond with a counter-attack.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 2903/10/2013

Of course, the discussion here was reduced to how much money he's able to raise and strategizing instead of Trudeau's actual agenda... Oh, right, that's because there is none!

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 3003/10/2013

Harper is by far the smartest priminister that has ever run Canada.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 3104/15/2013

Harper is the gate master to a Castle full of religious nutcases and libertarian looney tunes - often all within the same MP.

All Trudeau has to to is open Harpers gate.

The sad part is, defeating Harper may be so easy for Justin, the Liberals may never actually do anything once they get into office.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 3204/15/2013

Candidate Justin Trudeau and his wife Sophie Gregoire (right) arrive for the Liberal Party of Canada leadership vote in Ottawa.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 3304/15/2013

Liberals always do well in the polls when they are leaderless, and then once they elect a leader, their popularity decreases dramatically.

Trudeau will not be the next Prime Minister. At best he will divide the left-wing vote between the Liberals and NDP and Canada elect another majority Conservative government with a minority of the votes.

The Liberals in trouble. They got destroyed in the last federal election and aren't doing well in provinces where they are governing. They are likely to lose in BC and when Ontario calls elections, they will probably be voted out of government there, too.

But the Liberals don't want to win a federal election right now. They're smart enough to know that it's not possible. They just want to make sure NDP does not get elected or come in second. NDP becoming the official opposition was an embarrassment to the Liberals. If they allow NDP to become Canada's governing party, how can they continue to brand themselves as the natural opposition to the Conservatives - one of the leading two parties in Canada's multiparty system?

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 3404/15/2013

I agree, that's it totally, R34

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 3504/15/2013

NDP cannot win an election under Mulcair. Under Layton it was possible because he was well-liked by voters. Trudeau could beat Harper or at least reduce him to a minority because he has the popularity with voters and the star power of his name to do so.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 3604/16/2013

Pierre Trudeau was not "flamboyant" in the least. Justin, au contraire, is FLAME-boyant.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 3704/16/2013

If Mulcair loses the ego and co-operates with Trudeau, then the NDP keeps its leader of the opposition spot in a Liberal majority government.

If Mulcair keeps living in his ego driven illusion - built by Jack, then the Liberals get in with a minority and the NDP goes back to 3rd place, risking its party status (and funding).

The only choice the NDP has to stay in the game, is to cooperate with the Liberals now.

by 2013 Poll Trollreply 3804/16/2013
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