February 07, 2013
[quote]Looking ahead to 2016 nationally and in Iowa
New PPP polls both nationally and in Iowa find Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton leading the way for their party's respective 2016 nominations, with Clinton leading Rubio by 8 points in a hypothetical head to head.
For the third month in a row in our national 2016 GOP tracking Rubio leads the way. He's at 22% to 15% for Paul Ryan, 13% each for Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 10% for Rand Paul, 4% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Rick Perry, and 1% for Susana Martinez. Rubio continues to lead based on his appeal to the furthest right segment of the Republican Party- he's at 28% with 'very conservative' voters to 15% for Huckabee and 14% for Ryan.
Rubio's tied for the lead in Iowa as well. It's a closely contested picture there with he and Huckabee both at 16%, followed by Paul at 15%, Bush at 14%, Christie at 12%, Ryan at 10%, Martinez at 4%, and Jindal and Perry at 3%. Rubio leads with conservatives there as well but polls so far behind Huckabee with moderates that it's just a tie overall. One other interesting finding in Iowa is that Chris Christie has only a 36/33 favorability rating with Republicans in the state, including 36/38 with 'very conservative' ones.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to dominate both nationally and in Iowa. Nationally she's at 58% to 19% for Joe Biden, 8% for Elizabeth Warren, and 3% for Andrew Cuomo. She's even stronger in Iowa at 68% to 21% for Biden with no one else over 2%. Her favorability rating with Democrats there is 90/5.
If Clinton doesn't run Democrats are pretty open to a Biden candidacy. Nationally he gets 57% to 13% for Warren and 5% for Cuomo, and in Iowa he gets 58% to 13% for Cuomo and 7% for Warren. If neither Clinton nor Biden ran a plurality of Democrats- 36% nationally and 37% in Iowa- would be undecided.
Clinton leads in head to head match ups nationally with all of the leading Republicans. She's up 8 on Rubio 49/41, 6 on Bush and Ryan at 49/43 and 50/44 respectively, and 46/42 on Christie. Biden does an average of 3 points worse than Clinton against the Republicans- he's up 48/43 on Rubio, 49/45 on Ryan, 48/45 on Bush, and ties Christie at 44.
Obviously it's very early but we'll be doing this national 2016 polling on a monthly basis so that we have a good measure of how preferences shift over time.