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China's economy to overtake the U.S. in the next four years

China will overtake the US in the next four years to become the largest economy in the world, says a leading international thinktank.

The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said China's economy will be larger than the combined economies of the eurozone countries by the end of this year, and will overtake the US by the end of 2016.

Global GDP will grow by 3% a year over the next 50 years, it says, but there will be large variations between countries and regions. By 2025, it says the combined GDP of China and India will be bigger than that of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US and Canada put together. Asa Johansson, senior economist at the OECD, said: "It is quite a shift in the balance of economic power we are going to see in the future."

Inequalities will persist, even though people in the poorest countries will see their income more than quadruple by 2060, with those in China and India seeing a more than a seven-fold increase. By 2060, the OECD says living standards in the emerging countries will still only be 25%-60% of the level enjoyed by those in the US.

Global imbalances, which created the conditions for the crash of 2007, will continue to widen and reach pre-crisis levels by 2030, it said. In the short term, this is largely a cyclical effect of the financial crisis. So the US, which had a large budget deficit before the crisis, experienced a sharper downturn than China, which had a budget surplus.

The OECD warned that rising imbalances could undermine growth. But, it said, if countries undertook more ambitious reforms with regards to labour and production, they could be reduced. Johansson said these could address how easy it was to hire and fire employees, or regulations around starting up a business and restrictions over foreign business investment.

by Anonymousreply 2002/08/2013


by Anonymousreply 102/07/2013


by Anonymousreply 202/07/2013

You are not going to like it when they are in charge.

by Anonymousreply 302/08/2013

It's not just about quantity, it's also about quality:

[quote]By 2060, the OECD says living standards in the emerging countries will still only be 25%-60% of the level enjoyed by those in the US.

by Anonymousreply 402/08/2013

I hope China becomes more powerful militarily by the end of this century too. It's the only thing that will break the power of the U.S. military-industrial complex .

by Anonymousreply 502/08/2013

Yeah, wouldn't that be great, r5? The Chinese have places for halfwits like you, and they're not called Datalounge.

by Anonymousreply 602/08/2013

The more powerful China's military becomes, the greater excuse the U.S. military will have to build up both in manpower and armaments.

by Anonymousreply 702/08/2013

Agree with R6 and R7

by Anonymousreply 802/08/2013

R6 & R7, the US will reach a limit in terms of how big its military can get - that's the whole point. Gore Vidal said this in one of his final interviews. They may want to invade Iran and every other country but just like the Roman Empire they will reach a point where there is a scarcity of resources and can no longer do it all.

by Anonymousreply 902/08/2013

[quote]the US will reach a limit in terms of how big its military can get

And so can China's military. China's one-child policy will have an effect on how big its army can get without destroying its economic capacity.

by Anonymousreply 1002/08/2013

China also has more than a billion people living there. Per capita, China will never overtake the US.

by Anonymousreply 1102/08/2013

You are forgetting Peak Oil. This will affect China as much as if not more so than any other nation. There is only so much oil to go around, and it is depleting rapidly as users of it increase. It is too complex an issue to explain adequately in a fast response here on DL. Peak Oil will end any countries illusions of being the dominant "superpower". We are at the Peak now, many argue.

True, China is going around the globe, signing trade agreements for oil as well as minerals, etc. Still, if a huge population consumes them then oil and the rest will all be depleted all the more sooner. The 21st century will be a big slurping sound as the worlds resources are used up. China will be the flowering of humanity,but that flower will not and cannot last long. Then, the world will sink into a dark ages from which it will never recover.

by Anonymousreply 1202/08/2013

[quote]the world will sink into a dark ages from which it will never recover


by Anonymousreply 1302/08/2013

[quote]You are forgetting Peak Oil.

That's [italic]at least[/italic] 100 years away.

by Anonymousreply 1402/08/2013

The U.S. has lost its right to be the leading world power - that's for sure. Just this last week has made that abundantly clear with Obama & the CIA's disgusting attempt to justify drone attacks.

by Anonymousreply 1502/08/2013

Well, if we are talking about ethics, China certainly has no right to be the leading world power.

by Anonymousreply 1602/08/2013

R15, you knew the twits were going for a plutocracy when the Bush administration started throwing out the phrase 'Empire-Building'. They really hope to make this into another Roman empire.

This OECD ignores plague, famine, and war.

by Anonymousreply 1702/08/2013

[quote]China's economy to overtake the U.S. in the next four years.

This will be better for the world. The US has squandered the power it had.

by Anonymousreply 1802/08/2013

Some people know very little about the world.

by Anonymousreply 1902/08/2013

Peak oil is happening right now! This is the start of it. Roll your eyes all you wish.

by Anonymousreply 2002/08/2013
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