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Black voter turnout may have surpassed whites for the first time

December 26, 2012

Despite often-voiced concerns about the effect of voter identification laws, black voter turnout remained high in 2012 and, for the first time, may have topped the rate for whites, according to a new study by the Pew Research Center.

Four years ago, the rate of black voter turnout almost equaled that of whites, continuing a trend of a steady increase in black turnout rates that began in 1996. This year, with white turnout appearing to have dropped, black turnout seems very likely to have exceeded the white level, although definitive figures won’t be available until the Census Bureau reports in a few months.

A higher turnout rate among blacks than whites would mark an historic milestone given America’s long history of disenfranchising blacks. Blacks were effectively barred from polls in many states until after passage of the federal Voting Rights Act in 1965.

In the run-up to this year’s presidential election, a number of states with Republican-majority legislatures passed laws limiting voting hours, curtailing voter registration efforts or requiring voters to show identification. Many black leaders said those laws would disproportionately hurt elderly, poor and minority voters and accused Republicans of running a campaign of “voter suppression.”

Republicans said the measures were needed to combat voter fraud. In a few states, Republican legislative leaders explicitly said they hoped the measures would hurt Democratic candidates or reduce the “urban” vote.

Courts blocked some of those laws, and in the end they may have backfired as black organizations used “voter suppression” as a rallying cry. The perception that “people don’t want you to vote” motivated many blacks, particularly young people, to turn out, said Chanelle Hardy, executive director of the National Urban League. “It was huge,” she said during a recent panel discussion.

Overall, about 60% of the Americans eligible to register actually voted in 2012, according to data compiled by Michael McDonald of George Mason University. That would be about three points below the 2008 turnout, with much of the decline coming among white voters. The precise final number won’t be known until New York state completes its vote count, which has been slowed by the after-effects of Hurricane Sandy.

The number of voters from minority groups rose in November’s election, a key factor in President Obama’s reelection. But those numbers went up for disparate reasons. Among Latinos and Asians, population growth has steadily driven up the number of voters. Turnout rates also have gone up, but remain significantly lower than those of the population as a whole. The nation’s black population, by contrast, has remained steady, but the number of black voters has continued to go up because of higher turnout rates. Blacks make up about 12% of the U.S. population but were 13% of the voter turnout, according to exit polling. Whites made up about 71% of the voter-eligible population and 72% of the turnout, the exit poll indicated.

The large black turnout was critical to Obama’s victory in several swing states, according to a recent analysis by Ruy Texeira and John Halpin of the Center for American Progress, a Democratic think tank. Their analysis pointed to Ohio, in particular, as a state in which an increase in the black share of the vote proved decisive.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1612/28/2012

This is good news, and after his presidential run is over, Barack Obama will be a Democratic superstar for the rest of his life and help continue to motivate blacks to get to the polls for Democrats.

Good stuff.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 112/27/2012

Since the entire black population in this country is around 14 or 15%, that would mean that hardly any whites voted in the election, which I doubt. This stat might be true in urban cities with large black and latino populations, but for the entire country? Sorry that is a stretch.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 212/27/2012

R2, I read the article to say that the percentage of back voters may have surpassed the percentage of white voters, not the actual numbers, yes?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 312/27/2012

I think they're talking about the percentage of those particular groups who voted, not as a percentage of the entire electorate.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 412/27/2012

VOTN, you owe me a Coke.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 512/27/2012

The fact that they were voting for a Black President was a prime motivator, but the fact that the GOP overreached and attempted to suppress the vote by setting up these "new" rules across the country, and the fact that this time a huge spotlight was shining on their efforts, really galvanized minorities and insured a higher turnout.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 612/27/2012

The vote suppression of the Black community has been going on for years. A friend in local politics in Los Angeles back in mid 90's had me (and others) poll checking for that reason. It goes on every election it's just that now things were at a crucial point in national politics the reporting on it made people aware. But this has always gone on since Black people had the vote.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 712/27/2012

In other words: Blacklash

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 812/27/2012

I hope they weren't voting only for Obama. I hope they keep voting for progressive candidates and getting out the vote.

Hopefully everyone learned this last election cycle, if you don't vote for progressives, the Republicans will take your right to vote away.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 912/27/2012

[quote]I hope they weren't voting only for Obama. I hope they keep voting for progressive candidates and getting out the vote.

I think we all know the answer to that. Watch those same numbers in four years...

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1012/27/2012

No way will blacks turn out in future elections the way they did in 2008 and 2012. It's just not going to happen. Democrats need to focus primarily on securing the latino vote if they want to offset the white vote.

Without the huge black turnout and a candidate that appeals to latinos, Repubs could easily win in 2016. Jeb Bush and Rubio both fit the bill.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1112/27/2012

There is a much easier way to communicate this and in a way that would be much easier to understand.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1212/27/2012

Sure, write-off the black vote the way Repugs wrote-off the Latinos.

See where that gets you.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1312/27/2012

This will help in presidential elections but not in congress. The GOP gerrymandered all the black people into districts where they are a small minority.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1412/27/2012


by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1512/28/2012

Too bad they won't bother voting in the next election.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1612/28/2012
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