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Trudeau's Lustre Wearing Off Thanks To Latest Blunders, Poll Suggests

His collapse is complete. He will never be PM.


Another poll emerged over the weekend showing that Justin Trudeau is the front-runner for the Liberal leadership race and could transform the national political landscape. But behind the numbers are a few signs Trudeau's popularity may be on the down-swing.

A poll by Léger Marketing for Le Devoir and the Montreal Gazette put the Conservatives ahead in national voting intentions with 35 per cent to 30 per cent for the New Democrats and 18 per cent for the Liberals.

But with Trudeau at the helm, the Liberals would take 31 per cent of the vote. That put them in a tie with the Conservatives, while the NDP fell to third with only 24 per cent support.

The Trudeau Liberals would jump to over 50 per cent in Atlantic Canada and would be tied (or almost tied) for the lead in Quebec, Ontario and the Prairie provinces. Overnight, the Liberals would be re-cast as a leading contender to form the country's next government.

However, these numbers may not be as good as they appear at first glance. Though Trudeau clearly transforms the Liberals' chances, the 31 per cent registered in this poll is far below the 39 per cent that a Trudeau-led Liberal Party took in a mid-November poll by Forum Research, or the 42 per cent who told Harris-Decima they would be certain or likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau was leader.

Both of those were conducted before the recent spate of gaffes by the leadership candidate, suggesting the incidents may have put a dent in Trudeau's appeal.

The poll by Léger also shed some light on what Canadians think of Trudeau as a potential prime minister. While a large proportion (46 per cent) said he has the qualities to be PM (against 31 per cent who said he does not), respondents were more split on whether he has the competencies (40 per cent said yes, while 36 per cent said no). And only 27 per cent said he is ready to lead the country, compared to 50 per cent who said he is not.

Nevertheless, Trudeau stands head and shoulders above his rivals. Echoing the results of the Harris-Decima poll that found 20 per cent of Canadians certain or likely to vote for a Liberal Party led by Marc Garneau, Léger reported that the Garneau Liberals would take only 19 per cent of the vote. That put him well behind the Tories and NDP. Martha Hall Findlay did even worse, with 12 per cent support for a Liberal Party led by her.

Trudeau has the name recognition that his opponents lack. Only six per cent of Canadians, when asked whether they had a good or bad opinion of the leadership candidates, did not know who he was. That is in contrast to the 27 per cent who drew a blank for Garneau or the 51 per cent who did not recognize Hall Findlay. Canadians also have a good opinion of Trudeau: 49 per cent said so, compared to 21 per cent who have a bad opinion of him. Garneau split 38 per cent to eight per cent on this question.

Most tellingly, 38 per cent of Canadians (and 60 per cent of Liberal voters) thought Trudeau was the best choice for leader, while Garneau placed second at 16 per cent (20 per cent among Liberals). No other candidate did better than three per cent, and most scored zero. But while Trudeau remains the leading light for the Liberal Party, there is some indication that the lustre is beginning to wear off.

by Anonymousreply 1512/11/2012

In Stephen Harpers dreams....

by Anonymousreply 112/11/2012

Is there any gay slash fiction starring Justin Trudeau?

by Anonymousreply 212/11/2012

Trudeau = an automatic lost. Liberals are going extinct. They just don't get it. Harper is a cunning, experienced politician. Trudeau is a golden boy, who had everything handed to him. He is not ready for this.

by Anonymousreply 312/11/2012

I agree, R3. We can't afford another loser, and another Harper win.

by Anonymousreply 412/11/2012

Conservative Canucks hate him with such a passion, you just can't help but like him.

by Anonymousreply 512/11/2012

I don't understand the Liberals anymore. They used to be my party of choice but since Chretien/Martin they've gone for stunt leaders. People who they think will magically restore their fortunes.

Dion was a dud. Ignatieff was a disappointing mistake. And I'm afraid Trudeau will be the same. His name carries a lot of weight but I fear there's not much more there than that.

by Anonymousreply 612/11/2012

Is this entire thread Conservative spin postings or what?

by Anonymousreply 712/11/2012

Trudeau thinks he'll get by by passing himself off as a playboy. No substance. The public sees right through it. There is sadly no end in sight for Harper. The longer Trudeau goes around speaking as if he's the front-runner, the more he hurts the party. His mouth keeps getting him into trouble, and at this point he's 'speaking for the party' in the public's mind. The Liberals need to find another potential front-runner, one that competes with Trudeau. Anything to make it appear that there's an alternative to Trudeau, and that the Liberals are actually making the 'best man win,' not just handing it over to the establishment, some rich brat, who wants the job for vanity purposes.

by Anonymousreply 812/11/2012

r7, Liberals, Liberals that don't have their heads up their asses, are all saying the same thing. Harper has got to go, but will be sticking around if this idiot gets the position.

by Anonymousreply 912/11/2012

[quote]Is this entire thread Conservative spin postings or what?

Why do you say that? Is criticism and dissension not allowed? Because I assure you that all political parties in Canada are full of both.

by Anonymousreply 1012/11/2012

I think the Liberals are either clueless, or they have given up and basically support Harper (and the destruction of Canada). R7 is clueless, too.

by Anonymousreply 1112/11/2012

I still think Bob Rae would have been a good leader. They blew their chances when they chose Iggy over Bob.

by Anonymousreply 1212/11/2012

No, Bob Rae was/is a big loser. He initially was good (a long time ago), but he blew it when he was premier of Ontario. Plus, he has not managed to attack Harper in any significant way in Parliament.

by Anonymousreply 1312/11/2012

Muclair and the NDP can't beat Harper because they are all riding Jack Laytons coat tails and Jack is dead.

The Liberals have to get Trudeau back in sync. They have 3 years, else Canada will go even farther right wing.

by Anonymousreply 1412/11/2012

The NDP is in a stronger position to attack and beat Harper because of their party's positions. The Liberals have been inching towards the same territory as the Conservatives over the past two decades. Muclair is bilingual and energetic. The Liberals are anemic. Li'l Trudeau is too inexperienced and will be attacked for that. Harper is putting out attack ads against Mulcair NOW, YEARS before a potential election because he is afraid of him.

by Anonymousreply 1512/11/2012
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