Picture: Lincoln (If America loses to France in the current Hollywood environment, you can shoot me in a balcony because I'm brain dead anyway.) It will be between Les Miserables and Lincoln for many of the awards, with Lincoln pulling ahead with the big awards.
Director: Spielberg. They are ready to lift him to Capra and Wyler heights with three wins.
Actor: They REALLY would like to give it to Jackman, but I think they're also ready to hand a third Oscar to Day-Lewis. He's non-controversial in the right ways, respected (if not liked), and plays Lincoln, for Todd's sake. If Day-Lewis and Jackman eliminate each other - possible because of largely overlapping constituencies, it will go to Sessions.
Actress: Laugh if you want, but if Dench is nominated, she'll win. She's considered under-honored by far, and her having macular degeneration wins sympathy and gives the sense that they'd better do it now rather than wait. If not, probably Jennifer Lawrence. But it will smell like cunt. No way for Chastain. But watch Helen Hunt get nominated.
Supporting Actor: Phillip Seymour Hopkins. He's not the type of actor to require the pic to be at its peak of appeal to voters in order to win. They'd love to give it to someone for Magic Mike, but McBongo repulses them, and they'd love to give it to someone
Supporting Actress: Anne Fucking Dreamed a Dream Hathaway
Original Screenplay: PT Anderson, The Master
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
Foreign Film: The Intouchables, France (Les Mis "We're sorry.")
Cinematography: Miranda, Life of Pi. I don't think
Editing: A real toss-up. Life of Pi, Lincoln and Les Mis are all there, and Argo is considered a great editing job but a shit film. Even Skyfall has a shot.
Production Design: Yup, this will show if the Academy voters are truly sick of Peter Jackson. Both Rick Carter (Lincoln) and Eva Stewart (Les Mis) are greatly respected. Lincoln.
Costume Design: Delgado for Les Mis. Among all the likely nominees, only Eiko Ishioka has an Oscar win already, and he's dead now. No, Anna Karenina won't win.
Original Score: God, John Williams again?
Sound Mixing: Dark Knight Rises, unless Skyfall breaks through.
Song: Schönberg, Les Mis, "Suddenly"
Visual Effects: Life of Pi.
The rest? Oh, foo. Who cares?