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With all of the northern black re-gentrification of Georgia, why hasn't this state flipped blue?

Anyone have the Georgia county red/blue maps for last week?

What is the next red state to flip blue?

by Anonymousreply 8712/21/2014

Nene must be able to sway the vote.

by Anonymousreply 211/11/2012

Getting NC back is a higher priority

by Anonymousreply 311/11/2012

On election night I thought...So, that's what all that convention money bought us.

by Anonymousreply 411/11/2012

[quote]Anyone have the Georgia county red/blue maps for last week?

Click on Georgia to zoom in and see results by county.

[quote]With all of the northern black re-gentrification of Georgia, why hasn't this state flipped blue?

Because it's not gentrification of Georgia; just of Atlanta. The rest of Georgia is rural white Republican.

by Anonymousreply 511/11/2012

Someone is forgetting Savannah, Columbus, and Macon. I believe the counties that those cities fall in were all blue.

by Anonymousreply 611/11/2012

Thank you r5, and r6, that whole swath from Columbus to Augusta on the Georgia counties map, looks promising.

by Anonymousreply 711/11/2012

Outside of Metro Atlanta, Georgia may as well be Mississippi or Alabama. R1 is somewhat right - Yes, lots of blacks have moved to Georgia in the past decade, but lots of northern whites with pent-up racial frustration have moved to the area as well (the same phenomenon is going on in Houston and Dallas as well at the moment). Racial politics and an "us vs. them" mentality prevails quite a bit in the area. There is an unholy alliance between rural republicans and the suburban republicans who don't want their tax dollars going to Atlanta, a city seen by white repub types as being full of too many blacks and gays.

by Anonymousreply 811/11/2012

Atlanta (proper) is a diamond floating in a sea of shit. (Fuck that "metro" shit - they don't live like we do in-town.) Atlanta is blue, the rest of the state is BLOOD RED.

by Anonymousreply 911/11/2012

There's a lot more blue in GA than I would have expected. I grew up in Columbus GA and almost everyone I know from there is a repub.

by Anonymousreply 1011/11/2012

R9 - Decatur in next-door Dekalb County is pretty blue too. They don't nickname the city "Dick-hater" or "Dike-atur" for nothing. Inside 285/Outside 285 are two different worlds though.

by Anonymousreply 1111/11/2012

No R9, there's a GIANT swath of majority black counties. When that area was under the ocean a big swath of plankton was left behind and made the soil good for crops that required slave labor. This place could go blue in heartbeat if the hardcore Christians would realize that Jesus did more than just copy the Osiris story and talked like a fucking hippie. Maybe someday.

by Anonymousreply 1211/11/2012

Part of Dekalb is in Atlanta proper. We don't count places like Alpharetta and other pits Republicants slither in.

by Anonymousreply 1311/11/2012

Sounds bizarre, but I wouldn't be all that surprised to see Texas flip in the next decade or so, as the Latino vote acquires increased weight.

by Anonymousreply 1411/11/2012

Hasn't TX always had a large Latimo population?

by Anonymousreply 1511/11/2012

All of the major Texas cities voted for Obama, but the rest of the state is solid red. I don't know how there's enough people in the rest of the state to keep electing Republicans, but apparently there is. Texas is still another 8 years away from becoming a swing state.

by Anonymousreply 1611/11/2012

Yes, but we are finally becoming politically aware, R15. In that respect, we're catching up to our peers in California and New Mexico.

by Anonymousreply 1711/11/2012

I know that people are talking about Texas flipping. But compared to 2004 Texas got redder than the country did in 2012. That happened all over the south though so it could be the racist swing.

by Anonymousreply 1811/11/2012

She'sh my idol! Hello Georghia!

by Anonymousreply 1911/11/2012

Texas is very racist. Even the big Texas cities are segregated.

by Anonymousreply 2011/11/2012

Oklahoma and Utah didn't have one spec of blue at all.

by Anonymousreply 2111/11/2012

The TX flip will depend on Dems learning how to play their cards right, and probably also on a bit of luck. I incline to agree that a black nominee was provocative for white TX racists; but the reality is (I think) that neither major party will ever again nominate two white men for their ticket, so some of the provocation will most likely disappear. At that point, it may just be that TX minorities will finally assert themselves.

At present, white non-Hispanics are under 45% of TX population, and that percentage is rapidly shrinking. The demographics just seem inevitable.

The other Southern state I see as a possible flip is Louisiana, because of its very peculiar history.

by Anonymousreply 2211/11/2012

I can see Arizona swaying as the legal Hispanic population starts to outnumber the dying old white people.

by Anonymousreply 2311/11/2012

Non-white kids are now the majority in Texas schools. That tells you all you need to know about the state's political future. I'm sure AZ and FL schools are looking very similar.

by Anonymousreply 2411/11/2012

R20 - Houston is not that segregated. It's actually quite cosmopolitan and has large Asian, Latino, and Black populations throughout the metro area.

Dallas on the other hand is very segregated and racist. Most blacks live south of Downtown and aren't exactly welcome in the Northern GOPburbs like Plano or McKinney. Ft. Worth is also very segregated and conservative too. I found blacks in the DFW area to be very mentally stuck on the plantation due to the right-wing culture there. Blacks know their place there, which is pleasing to the local conservative population in Dallas.

by Anonymousreply 2511/11/2012

[quote]Texas is very racist. Even the big Texas cities are segregated.

Houston remains segregated with regard to blacks. But whites and Mexican-Americans are much more integrated. During one redistricting, I think following the 1990 census, there was an attempt to create a congressional district in the Houston area that would enable voting in a Mexican-American. They found the neighborhoods well integrated. The district they thought would finally get a Mexican-American congressman in elected Gene Green. So, good news, bad news there.

by Anonymousreply 2611/11/2012

There are only a handful of blacks who live inside the Loop in Houston.

by Anonymousreply 2711/11/2012

[quote]There are only a handful of blacks who live inside the Loop in Houston.

Thus typed the man who has obviously never been to the Third Ward.

by Anonymousreply 2811/11/2012

R28 - I was about to come in to type the very same thing. R21 is talking out of his asshole.

by Anonymousreply 2911/11/2012

[quote]There are only a handful of blacks who live inside the Loop in Houston.

Honey @ R27, almost all of the inner-Loop east of 288 (that is, the whole area around U of H and Texas Southern U) is African-American. They don't all live in Acres Homes and North Forest.

by Anonymousreply 3011/11/2012

I've lived in Houston for more than 25 years and still don't know the "wards". I do remember that up until 20 years ago the area just *west* of Downtown along Allen Parkway, once known as Freedman's Town, was heavily African- American. The gentrification since the mid-90s has changed this forever; now it's all yuppie and hipster, with just a handful of black residents holding out. Maybe that's what R27 meant, not realizing the whole east side is still black.

by Anonymousreply 3111/11/2012

[quote]I know that people are talking about Texas flipping. But compared to 2004 Texas got redder than the country did in 2012. That happened all over the south though so it could be the racist swing.

Unfortunately, I think this is true, but there's a silver lining.

Once there is a white Dem back as the Dem candidate, the Repugs have even more to worry about as that candidate won't inflame the "I hate Obama because he's black whether I say it or not" wing of the party.

by Anonymousreply 3211/11/2012

Obama won Douglas County. That's huge. Look for Georgia to flip within in ten years.

by Anonymousreply 3311/11/2012

Yeah it's unfortunate, but when the Dems have a white presidential candidate you're definitely going to get West Virginia back, you might get Arkansas, North Carolina, and one of the midwest states back.

by Anonymousreply 3511/11/2012

I don't get Indiana. Why do they think more highly of republicans there? I suppose Obama didn't make any ad buys, but really....

by Anonymousreply 3611/11/2012

Whites are a minority in Atlanta, but not in the State of Georgia as a whole. Remember this is the South, the bible belt, and the confederacy. Where whites are the majority, Southern culture still results in backwards and regressive politics.

Atlanta is the progressive gem of Georgia because white Southerners do not control it. The rest of the state has not been so fortunate.

by Anonymousreply 3711/11/2012

North Carolina is about 10 years behind Virginia, but is getting bluer. Arizona is getting purple. Montana is not as red as it was. All it takes is a few more California transplants . . .

As for Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia and Kentucky, though -- these might have flipped red for good. Obama changed their cultural perception of the Democratic party. They used to think of the party in terms of local elected white Dem officials. The upland South continued electing Dems long after whites in the Deep South had turned monolithically Republican. Now the hillbillies think of Democrats the way white Georgians or Alabamans do -- the party of blacks and liberals.

Too bad those four states are probably gone for good, but they were less than 30 EVs anyway. I think Virginia (educated suburbanites) and the growing states in the Mountain West (Latinos) were a good trade. Obama didn't even have to work for New Mexico this time, and won Colorado and Nevada by more than I would've thought possible. I was also shocked that Romney barely won the Cuban vote in Florida. The Latino vote in that state is increasingly non-Cuban anyway. We'll still probably lose that state in off-years, but I'm encouraged about it being more blue than purple in presidential years.

by Anonymousreply 3811/11/2012

Arkansas has a Dem governor and a Dem senator. Hillary has a shot of winning Arkansas. She also has a good shot at winning Arizona, Missouri, NC and Indiana.

by Anonymousreply 3911/11/2012

Georgia did better for Obama than Arizona. Just thought I'd throw that out there.

by Anonymousreply 4011/11/2012

Rpmney won GA by 8. He won NC by 2 or so.

by Anonymousreply 4111/11/2012

[quote]Obama won Douglas County. That's huge. Look for Georgia to flip within in ten years.

Yeah, they're saying possible battleground state in 2016 and 2020.

[quote] Atlanta is the progressive gem of Georgia because white Southerners do not control it.

Oh, please. Atlanta is the progressive gem of Georgia because people, black and white, who don't give a shit about the racist anxieties that keep the rest of the state red are there.

A huge group of black Atlantans marched en masse to do a really nasty victory lap against the gays when the anti-gay marriage amendment passed in Ga in 2004, so don't give me this "Blacks in Atlanta are so progressive while whites are all reactionary." Puke.

by Anonymousreply 4211/11/2012

I won't trust North Carolina until they give up tobacco.

by Anonymousreply 4311/11/2012

GA will never go Democratic as long as Paula Deen is in Savannah.

by Anonymousreply 4411/11/2012

Wow SC is half blue

by Anonymousreply 4511/11/2012

Atlanta has been getting whiter but not any more conservative. So at least there's that. I think the Douglas County win is great because that has been a redneck county. Hell, we got 20% in Forsyth.

by Anonymousreply 4611/11/2012

In 1980 Forsyth was revealed to have only 2 or was it zero black residents?

by Anonymousreply 4711/11/2012

Is Savannah Republican?

by Anonymousreply 4811/11/2012

Most of what people have said in this thread is true of white Georgians, conservative, reactionary, still afraid of Martin Luther King Jr (and don't even mention Malcolm X.)

Sadly, there is a set of circumstances that make some black Georgians go over to that side. I know black tea party members in Georgia. Look at the underlying message of Tyler Perry's Madea movies, it's a call for a return to conservative family values. Then look at the aspirational wealth themes of the prosperity gospel message coming from people like Creflo Dollar and T. D. Jakes. It's like that scene at the black cotillion in Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil: "We think we have almost caught up to the white cotillion!" While it doesn't represent all black Georgians, and while all of these aspirational themes and prosperity gospel messages have a huge number of white followers too, you can't underestimate the influence those attitudes have on some portion of the black vote in Georgia.

by Anonymousreply 4911/11/2012

Savannah itself usually goes blue, but it's surrounded by red (and some counties near there are centers of klan-style activities.)

But it's also the heart of voodoo country too.

by Anonymousreply 5011/11/2012

Set to Flip from Red to Blue

2016 Adds: North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia 2020 Adds: South Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Texas

Thank god for reverse migration, little brown children and white people on the move.

by Anonymousreply 5111/11/2012

r36, Indiana is Illinois without Chicago.

Southern Illinois would have seceded if it could have and is father south than the Mason/Dixon Line.

by Anonymousreply 5211/11/2012

R42 - That was the simple-minded flock from self-loathing homosexual and pederast Bishop Eddie Long. I always found a lot of his church members to be "off" and easily led, so no surprise that thousands of them marched on this issue (at its peak before the scandal, Long's church had 30,000 members). That leads to my theory about the black church and how it keeps black Americans mentally enslaved, but that's a discussion for another day.

While I do agree that a lot of my fellow African-Americans are very regressive when it comes to gay rights, the members of New Borth and their march back in 2004 are certainly not representative of all blacks in the Atlanta area. Hell, it seems like half the blacks in this city are gay anyhow!

by Anonymousreply 5311/11/2012

You think you're cool saying ' flip blue', don't you!?

by Anonymousreply 5411/11/2012

[quote]Obama won Douglas County. That's huge. Look for Georgia to flip within in ten years.

My parents live in Douglas which has undergone a big demographic shift in the past decade. The whites have moved further out into Paulding and Villa Rica. Soon all the crackers will have to flee into Alabama to keep their lily white Southern fried fantasy going.

by Anonymousreply 5511/11/2012

State of Georgia is trending blue.

2004: Bush won it by +16.60 -- making it 14.14% redder than the rest of the country.

2008: McCain won it by +5.20 -- making it 12.46% redder than the rest of the country.

2012 (unofficial): Romney won it by +7.86 -- making it 10.54% redder than the rest of country.

Chuck Todd pretty much stated that, with declining whites (and very apparent in Ga.), the growth of Hispanics could take Texas, Arizona, and Georgia and transform no longer safe for Republicans in prevailing Democratic presidential elections.

You don't like Republicans winning -- blame white voters that, especially in the south, cause that to problem when the GOP is so unworthy. The way the map is, a Democrat winning nationally will carry a select two or few in the south. (Bellwether Florida will be one of them.) North Carolina is trending Democratic as well (I know Mitt Romney flipped it) according to how much redder it is relative to how the country votes. (Relative to the national margin, it was 9.97% redder in 2004; 6.93% redder in 2008; and 4.85% redder in 2012.)

So, the timing needs to be better -- 2012 wasn't it (due to unemployment) -- with those wanting Georgia to have an occurence of actually coloring blue.

by Anonymousreply 5611/11/2012

Georgia has changed quite a bit, but it still has a ways to go. I was surprised to see that Rockdale County, which was very reliably Republican 13 years ago when I lived there, voted 58% for Obama, and there are almost no blacks there.

Some of the white northern transplants to Georgia are among the most racist people there. But things have improved in many places.

Atlanta is one of the most liberal cities in America, and I don't know what Georgians outside the cities seem so determined to be ignorant.

by Anonymousreply 5711/11/2012

I've always thought of Atlanta as the Berlin of the South; you have to fly in and out of it.

by Anonymousreply 5811/11/2012

Many blacks in Georgia still don't vote. Getting them to vote will be extremely difficult.

by Anonymousreply 5911/11/2012

R59 = Mitt Romney

by Anonymousreply 6011/11/2012

Georgia has had a huge population growth from people moving into the state - 60 percent of its growth is due to such migration. This is diluting white southern bigotry and the state's electoral votes will be blue by 2020.

by Anonymousreply 6111/11/2012

R1 hit it perfectly. Lots of transplants with a little money and as the saying goes, when you're poor you vote dem, when you're rich you're suddenly a repub (not exactly word for word). I think people think it's a status symbol to be repub. My idiot state voted for Nathan Deal as the governor even though he left congress with ethics issues hanging over his head. I don't expect GA to go blue anytime in the near future.

by Anonymousreply 6211/11/2012

If it were outsiders bringing in the racism, Georgia would be getting redder, not bluer. It's clear the opposite is happening - Republicans are winning by narrower margins. The state is changing. That's due to Atlanta, in which whites are a minority, and immigrants, who are not proponents of confederacy and white Southern bigotry.

by Anonymousreply 6311/11/2012

[quote]With all of the northern black re-gentrification of Georgia, why hasn't this state flipped blue?

Give it more time. It will. Southern whites can't block progress forever. Demographics are not on their side.

by Anonymousreply 6411/11/2012

Republicans will advocate for National Popular Vote before they ever suffer the indignity of losing a southern stronghold.

by Anonymousreply 6511/11/2012

Predictions based on shifting demographics (it's brown babies and the migration stupid!)

Flip Red to Blue Presidential Election:

Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona - [bold]2016 Election[/bold]

South Carolina, Indiana, Missouri- [bold]2020 Election[/bold]

Texas- [bold]2024 Election[/bold]

by Anonymousreply 6611/11/2012

What about long-term Hispanic engagement with the Democratic party? A lot of these possible "flips" are based on increased Hispanic vote. But, isn't there a chance that a substantial segment could be swayed to the Repugs, given their Catholicism and generally conservative social stance? Or, are they becoming more liberal in that regard. Also, blacks are always talked about as being fairly conservative overall, yet have always noted Dem.

I guess the Repugs would have to come up with some sort of non-offensive, reasonable immigration stance for this to possibly happen.

by Anonymousreply 6711/11/2012

[25] - Houston homers obsess with Dallas. Apparently the poster missed the piece "Segregation Hits Historic Low" from the Wall Street Journal earlier this year. Dallas-Fort Worth is the least segregated metropolitan area in the US, with the Houston metro placing 2nd, by a small margin, but 2nd nonetheless.

Houston homers also LOVE to compare ONLY city to city, never metro to metro. The DFW metro is the 4th largest metro area in the country, larger than the Houston metro, which places 5th.

Houstonians crow incessantly that their CITY is the 4th largest in the US, as if somehow raw population = world-class stature. The city of Houston has more people than the city of San Francisco, but is there anyone out there who thinks San Francisco occupies a lower rung than Houston?

by Anonymousreply 6811/11/2012

R68 - Not from Houston, but nice try. I'm familiar with both cities enough to know the differences. Trust and believe, I find Houstonians to be some of the most insecure, paranoid jackasses when it comes to their city. Great restaurants and dining and a decent gay scene, but it's basically Baton Rouge with taller skyscrapers and a more cosmopolitan population. It seems to irk Houstonians quite a bit when you remind them that they aren't on the level of Chicago or Los Angeles like they seem to think they are, so I remind them of this as much as I can.

As for Dallas not being as segregated as it used to be, that's true, but that's mainly because the most integrated neighborhoods there consist mainly of Mexicans and Blacks. Whites have moved further and further up towards Oklahoma over the last decade. Plano, once the epitome of white-flight GOP suburbia is considered "ghetto" nowadays because of the increase in minorities there and most of the housing stock there was built in the 80's and 90's, so it's "old" to the superficial morons who move to Texas from wherever so they can get a cheap McMansion.

I will say that Houston has a much better arts and cultural scene than Dallas. I find most Dallasites to be too shallow and superficial to appreciate and embrace such things. The only decent art there seems to be at Northpark Mall.

by Anonymousreply 6911/12/2012

OP -

You mean "reverse migration" not "re-gentrification."

The Southern blacks who migrated north during Jim Crow weren't leaving a "gentrified" existence in the South when they left -

by Anonymousreply 7011/12/2012

Arizona is a interesting circumstance.

A rising Hispanic population yet a VERY heavily growing Mormon population. Combine the two and it will be another couple election cycles before the Hispanics can overcome Mormons in the big cities and Rethug morons in the other less populated counties of the state.

My parents live there and are very pro-Obama (they live outside Phoenix) but they don't say it too loud cause all their elderly neighbors are Republicans. And Mesa, Tempe and other formerly progressive suburbs are now heavily Mormon populated inside Maricopa County.

I don't think AZ will go blue until 2020. The state still voted for people to be able to bring loaded weapons into bars not that recently. They love guns, Jesus and hate immigrants. It won't be til the Hispanics that are youths now can vote and the older rednecks to die off for it to go Blue.

by Anonymousreply 7111/12/2012

Thank you Doris.

[That wasn't plagiarized, was it, dear?]

by Anonymousreply 7211/12/2012

I worked for six months at Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad at the Port of Oakland in California in 2006. It seemed like many of the employees were homophobic and misogynistic at that time. They may not be now, but they were then. I bet things haven't changed. My point is that you cannot realistically say that the San Francisco Bay Area is totally diverse and open, and that other metropolitan areas like Houston, Dallas and Atlanta aren't so much. There seems to be an urban vs rural/blue collar divide. I currently live in Oregon, which is perceived to be liberal, but only the city of Portland proper and the two university cities of Eugene and Corvallis seem to be liberal. The other areas are pretty conservative and Republican. the trend follows on most other states including areas of the South, where I've lived and the inter mountain West where I've lived.

by Anonymousreply 7312/18/2014

The campaign commercials were almost enough to send me running back to San Francisco. Georgia is a total culture shock. What a bunch of fucking morons with their travel size confederate flags and Palin/McCain/Romney stickers. I keep voting, but it's not helping anything.

by Anonymousreply 7412/18/2014

SF isn't going to be liberal for much longer. In the next 10 years it will lean much more libertarian.

And Oakland is being gentrified as we speak btw. The avg dumpy home in Oakland is now over $550k.

by Anonymousreply 7512/18/2014

Oh I know r75, I only left two years ago. I weep for what it once was. It became increasingly rare to have co-workers born and raised in SF like I was.

by Anonymousreply 7612/18/2014

R76 well, honestly I don't. It was way too stasis for a long time. Frankly I find what is going on in Detroit really great. Hipsters and everyone from all over the world, including of course LGBTQ are descending on there and it's CHEAP! People can open businesses because it's CHEAP! People can buy homes, because it's CHEAP! Really fucking great.

Lots of great things happening.

by Anonymousreply 7712/18/2014

Also right outside of Portland is this other town that is completely...almost new and very very into tech. I really liked it. I don't think it's very liberal though, but it seemed REALLY COOL! And coming from the SFBA I was shocked and grateful they had grocery bags there at their whole foods which was really beautiful and pristine.

by Anonymousreply 7812/18/2014

R74 That is a very prejudiced and unrealistic comment. I've lived in 3 Southern States and 4 Western States. The idea that all Georgians are morons is more telling of you than it is of the people there. You're smug, better than attitude is uncalled for.

by Anonymousreply 7912/18/2014

Crips or Bloods... what's the difference? In the end, both have the same goal: ripping off and fucking up you and yours.

The whole corrupt party system needs to end.

by Anonymousreply 8012/18/2014

R 78 Washington County, on the west side of the Portland metro area is as you describe it. The rest of the state is much more conservative as I mentioned in my previous post. It seems like America is urban vs rural. Leave the Portland metro area and you may as well be in rural Georgia or in rural Kansas. I currently live in Vancouver Washington. Clark County, which Vancouver is the county seat, sits across the Columbia River from liberal Portland. Clark County narrowly voted down gay marriage when Washington voted for it in 2011. The idea that the west coast is all liberal and flyover states and the south are all conservative is false.

by Anonymousreply 8112/18/2014

[quote]The idea that the west coast is all liberal and flyover states and the south are all conservative is false.

I've lived in a red area of a blue state and a blue area of a red state. In my experience, pro-gay Republicans are more liberal on most social issues, many more so than your narrow prejudices would have you assume.

by Anonymousreply 8212/18/2014

I am certainly not narrow and prejudice as you accuse me of being. Do not judge. You do not know me.

by Anonymousreply 8312/18/2014

The idea that blacks are moving to Atlanta to make it a capital of black chic-ness has always been a lie, Real Housewives notwithstanding. Atlanta is getting whiter every year and the blacks that do move down with money are much more likely to live in a woodsy burb far from anything.

by Anonymousreply 8412/18/2014

[quote] I was also shocked that Romney barely won the Cuban vote in Florida.

I think that is incorrect. I just read and remember hearing at the time that President Obama bested Mitt Romney by two percentage points, 49% to 47% with Cuban voters in Florida in 2012.

by Anonymousreply 8512/19/2014

Here are the raw numbers from the last election, by percentage voting Democratic for president:

48.4 North Carolina

45.4 Georgia

44.3 Missouri

44.1 Arizona

44.0 South Carolina

43.8 Indiana

43.5 Mississippi

41.8 Montana

41.3 Alaska

41.4 Texas

40.6 Louisiana

The rest of the red states couldn't break 40% for the Democrats and are probably not worth going after, except in a 3-way race, or with a candidate with southern, rural or western appeal. The top four on the list could easily tip blue in the next election cycle, the rest of the list most likely would take longer. Rapid demographic changes in Texas could flip it sooner, but it's an uphill climb no matter what. South Carolina is the real surprise. Maybe it's just catching up with the rest of the eastern seaboard. On the flipside, the Republicans are going to try to flip the weakest blue states: Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Michigan and Colorado.

by Anonymousreply 8612/20/2014

North Carolina and Indiana both went blue in 2008 and turned red due to local politics, not national ones.

by Anonymousreply 8712/21/2014
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