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Fuck Nate Silver

He was unfairly picked on, but his overall model was deeply flawed. Meanwhile people with half the resources, such as Markos Moulitsas, hit the nail on the head: 332 / 206.

Why is Nate Silver being treated like a fortune teller when all he did was determine the probability of Obama winning? His estimate of the split being 313 to 225 was off. Meanwhile, others got it exactly right (even his prediction of 332 to 203 failed to add up to 538).

by Anonymousreply 1211/07/2012

It's funny that Nate Silver himself admits that there is nothing special about his "model". He's just making predictions based on the same poll data that is displayed on RCP. Look at the RCP no toss-up map from 11/4. It has predicted 49 out of 50 states correctly (Florida being the only question mark). I don't understand how Nate is considered to be so great when he's just picking exactly what the polls say. He's making a living out of taking something obvious and repackaging it with flourish.

by Anonymousreply 111/07/2012

Haha! Suck it OP!

by Anonymousreply 211/07/2012

Well then, OP and r1, why didn't you do what Nate did and make a mint?

Hmmm... what didn't you?

by Anonymousreply 311/07/2012

Nate's map was 100% correct.

by Anonymousreply 411/07/2012

OP, you're an idiot.

The 315-223 was the average expected number of EV. The most likely outcome in Nate's model was 332-206, which is what we will get if Florida goes blue. The difference between the two comes from the fact that the distribution of expected outcomes is skewed.

Please take remedial stats.

by Anonymousreply 511/07/2012

[quote]He's making a living out of taking something obvious and repackaging it with flourish.

People do this in any number of professions/industries. "Repackaging with flourish" is not something that everyone can do.

by Anonymousreply 611/07/2012

You're a moron OP. He was 100% right in calling the states.

by Anonymousreply 711/07/2012

OP, moron, you don't understand the nature of what Silver does. I can think of many others who no longer deserve a career in political punditry or polling (Rasmussen, Dick Morris, etc) but Silver was accurate. The nature of what he does is not like playing some kind of "I'm gonna get it exactly 100% right" lottery game.

by Anonymousreply 811/07/2012

Nate Silver nails it

Votes are still being tallied, but the New York Times poll guru appears to have predicted every state correctly

by Anonymousreply 911/07/2012

Math is hard.

by Anonymousreply 1011/07/2012

Take a look at the shit the Freepers were saying about him before tonight. It's hilarious in its desperation.

by Anonymousreply 1111/07/2012

Nate Silver is making a point. The point is -- it's really easy to predict an outcome by looking at all the polls; therefore we don't need these blowhard political pundits on tv and talk radio telling us their "gut feeling" about who s going to win.

He's been saying for weeks that this is not a horse race-- it's been in the bag for Obama for a while. The blowhard pundits like Joe Scarborough hate him, because if these elections are not portrayed as horse races with an unknown outcome, then the pundits have nothing to talk about it.

by Anonymousreply 1211/07/2012
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