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POLL THREAD ~ 1 Week to Go ~ OCTOBER 29 - NOVEMBER 6 ~ PART 3

OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +5]

SurveyUSA

Obama - 49

Romney - 44

-----

Obama is up 2 points in Ohio from last week's SurveyUSA poll

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 30511/12/2012

Hey Poll Troll...we were pining for you this morning and started another thread.

Big hugs.

You Rock.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 111/05/2012

I was here early this morning for a while, but I was away for a few hours. Didn't realize the other thread would fill up while I was gone.

Never expected them to be so popular. : )

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 211/05/2012

Poll Troll, can I just say thank you from a non American. These threads have been fascinating. I hope the current predictions are correct and good luck to you all tomorrow.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 311/05/2012

RCP Average for OHIO = Obama 3.0

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 411/05/2012

NEW HAMPSHIRE - PRESIDENT [Obama +2]

Rasmussen Reports

Obama - 50 (+2)

Romney - 48 (-2)

----

Monday, November 05, 2012

President Obama has a two-point edge over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire just before Election Day.

The final Election 2012 Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters finds Obama with 50% support to Romney’s 48%. Two percent (2%) are still undecided.

This New Hampshire survey of 750 Likely Voters was conducted on November 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 511/05/2012

Posted this in the unofficial thread. Might as well post it here as well.

[bold]Romney struggles to lock down Virginia[/bold]

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 611/05/2012

Oops

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 711/05/2012

More hugs and thanks for Poll Troll.

Also, PT, as your official threads are super popular and keep the conversation in one place, will you be posting official threads for election day?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 811/05/2012

I see that Gallup tried to save what's left of their dubious reputation by showing a big swing towards Obama today. The way they halted polling for several days by giving a lame Hurricane Sandy excuse is laughable. None of the other pollsters were affected. They only stopped polling so they could adjust their numbers to fall in line with everybody else.

Gallup is toast.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 911/05/2012

RCP National Average = Obama +0.4

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1011/05/2012

[quote]Also, PT, as your official threads are super popular and keep the conversation in one place, will you be posting official threads for election day?

Yes, I guess I can create an Election Night Thread tomorrow. The polling will be finally over (!), but I will be following the coverage of course and I may post some state results updates during the night, along with DL.

: )

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1111/05/2012

Shelley Berkley is going to win the Senate seat in Nevada. Just wait and see....

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1211/05/2012

There's a quote going around Facebook attributed to Nate Silver yesterday:

"If you can't acknowledge that [the President is winning the race] after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."

I was disgusted to turn on the morning shows today and still hear how "neck and neck" this race is.

Thank you, PT!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1311/05/2012

ABC/WaPost Final NATIONAL

Obama 50 Romney 47

Obama's supporters are more strongly enthusiastic than Romney’s by an 8-point margin in this poll,

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1411/05/2012

Working link that R7 was trying to post.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1511/05/2012

President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney 50 percent to 46 percent in the last of four live-interview polls tracking the presidential race in Colorado.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1611/05/2012

Final Reuters/Ipsos NATIONAL shows Obama surge:

48 Obama, 46 Romney

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1711/05/2012

Angus Reid, Wisconsin:

53 Obama 46 Romney

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1811/05/2012

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun - Obama 48 (+3), Romney 48 (-)

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1911/05/2012

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun [TIE]

Obama - 48 (+3)

Romney - 48 (-)

----

Romney was +3 in their poll 2 weeks ago.

11/1 - 11/4t

1417 LV tt

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2011/05/2012

With momentum building, Democrats could do some serious damage to the Republican majority in the House tomorrow night.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2111/05/2012

[quote]Yes, I guess I can create an Election Night Thread tomorrow.

Thank you. :)

And I know PT12 gets props, as he should do, but seriously, to PT and DrLF and all the other knowledgeable posters who've posted on these threads over the past weeks, a huge thank you. Thanks to you, I've been so much better informed than I would have been had I been simply at the mercy of the "mainstream media" and their "horse race" bullshit.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2211/05/2012

ITA with R22. Thank you, thank you, thank you for keeping me sane during this trying election!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2311/05/2012

I hate "me, too" posts but, well, "me, too," Poll Troll. I've been chiming in pretty regularly on these threads but to maintain the sheer volume of output that you've done is amazing, and very much appreciated.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2411/05/2012

More info from SurveyUSA on their OHIO poll:

[quote]Election Eve, Ohio: Obama in Strongest Position Yet To Capture Buckeye State’s 18 Critical Electoral Votes

"When all is said and done, and 24 hours remain until votes are counted in Ohio, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49% to 44%, according to SurveyUSA’s 5th and final pre-election tracking poll, conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus.

In 5 tracking polls, Obama has never trailed; today’s poll is the first time Obama has polled as high as 49%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Obama is up 1 point, Romney is down 1 point. Obama had led by 3, now leads, at the wire, by 5.

Men are moving to Obama on the final weekend. 6 out of 7 Ohio voters has been personally contacted by one or both presidential campaigns."

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2511/05/2012

[quote] 6 out of 7 Ohio voters has been personally contacted by one or both presidential campaigns

We had another Obama worker stop by today. That makes 3 visits for Obama and none for Romney, unless you count someone leaving a Romney/Ryan hanger on the front doorknob.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2611/05/2012

[quote] 6 out of 7 Ohio voters has been personally contacted by one or both presidential campaigns.

Jesus, that's an amazing statistic. I'm in an uncontested red state, and I don't even see bumper stickers.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2711/05/2012

I was in a team meeting the other day (I work in a big big big corporation) and we were discussing some factoid and I said, "I only trust the Poll Troll," and everyone gave me the sideways confused dog look.

I think I'd better unplug for a while.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2811/05/2012

[quote]We had another Obama worker stop by today.

Which state do you live in?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2911/05/2012

[quote]I've been chiming in pretty regularly on these threads but to maintain the sheer volume of output that you've done is amazing, and very much appreciated.

Thanks. : )

Luckily I'm a lawyer who's working from home this year and making my own hours, otherwise I wouldn't have been able to spend several hours a day on polls.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3011/05/2012

ABC News/Wash Post [Obama +3]

Obama - 50

Romney - 47

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3111/05/2012

[quote] Which state do you live in?

Sorry, meant to say I'm in Central Ohio. It's pretty solidly right-wing here, East of Columbus. One of our voting choices was between a Republican and a Libertarian.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3211/05/2012

[quote]With momentum building, Democrats could do some serious damage to the Republican majority in the House tomorrow night.

God I sure wish they could.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3311/05/2012

It will be very difficult for Democrats to win the House back all at once this year because of the large number of losses in 2010 and because of re-districting based on the 2010 Census.

But the huge change in fortunes is what happened with the U.S. Senate. When 2012 began, Mitch McConnell was favored to become Senate Majority Leader by the end of the year. Now that dream looks like it is shattered with virtually no one predicting a Republican takeover of the Senate any longer.

Harry Reid will most likely be one of the biggest winners tomorrow night, and McConnell one of the biggest losers.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3411/05/2012

Awesome!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3511/05/2012

Most of you beeches are voting for the R's cuz you want to see that buff Ryan on your teevee sets!

You don't fool me ONE BIT!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3611/05/2012

I read elsewhere that they figure about 15 possible Democratic House seats that might have been retaken in 2012 were lost because of redistricting. Something really should be done about that. I know that both sides take advantage but there's something seriously wrong where you can carve out a job guarantee.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3711/05/2012

Obama is up to 86.3% chance

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3811/05/2012

PPP had NC tied today. Romney has lost his lead even there. Mittens is toast. Cheers!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3911/05/2012

Romney tanking on Intrade! Obama over 70% for first time since Oct 4

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4011/05/2012

President Obama Job Approval - Ranges from 50-52% today

Gallup: Approve 52

ABC News/Wash Post: Approve 51

Rasmussen Reports: Approve 50

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4111/05/2012

Chuck Todd said that Obama campaign officials are telling him privately that they think they're ahead in every swing state, including North Carolina.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4211/05/2012

Sen. Barbara Boxer:

FACT: MORE JOBS HAVE BEEN CREATED IN THE PAST 3 MONTHS UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA THAN IN THE ENTIRE 8 YEARS OF THE BUSH PRESIDENCY.

Spread the word.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4311/05/2012

Reuters/Ipsos VIRGINIA: Obama 48,Romney 46 (LV)

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4411/05/2012

That's a pretty low bar though Babs. Still it's something idiot freepers won't even consider.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4511/05/2012

Turn out is everything now!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4611/05/2012

Reuters/Ipsos Colorado: 48 Obama, 47 Romney

Reuters/Ipsos VIRGINIA: Obama 48,Romney 46 (LV)

Reuters/Ipsos Florida: 48 Romney, 47 Obama (LV)

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4711/05/2012

The Reuters numbers look good for Obama in all the swing states except for FLORIDA.

If Obama is winning COLORADO and VIRGINIA, he won't need the 'Sunshine State'.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4811/05/2012

[quote]Chuck Todd said that Obama campaign officials are telling him privately that they think they're ahead in every swing state, including North Carolina.

It's not a crazy sentiment. The only states that Romney is arguably leading based on the data are NC and Florida. Both of those voter turnout signs look good for Dems. I think Obama will end up narrowly losing both states but Obama has a legitimate reason to be optimistic about every swing state. That isn't bullshit.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4911/05/2012

Obama *is* winning Colorado.

Virginia is still too close to call.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5011/05/2012

Here in Columbus, the volume of mail and TV ads is simply astounding. We've also had two Obama volunteers at our doors, but nothing from the Republicans, at ALL. Obama has also been in Columbus a number of times, including a huge rally at the Ohio State campus a few weeks ago, while the Republicans haven't even set up a voter information booth on the oval (a huge common area in the middle of campus). The Dems have been there for well over a month. I know it's a university and all, but Romney is basically invisible here in central Columbus in a way that I don't remember McCain being 4 years ago. With 50,000 students, let's hope that those OSU buckeyes get out in good numbers.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5111/05/2012

I've been calling North Carolina for Obama for over a week ;-)

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5211/05/2012

R50, Nate Silver gives Obama a higher chance of winning Virginia than Colorado.

But that could change.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5311/05/2012

PENNSYLVANIA - PRESIDENT [Obama +3]

Gravis Marketing

Obama - 49

Romney - 46

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5411/05/2012

I use RCP, PT12.

I feel much safer that way. ;)

They have Obama 1.5 over Romney in CoRado.

and Obama .3 over Romney in VirGidget.

First time they've showed Obama leading in Virginia, so I'm pleased.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5511/05/2012

I love you, "North Carolina for Obama" troll. Thanks for your good work.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5611/05/2012

Will someone post a thread for me?

It's about how the Native Americans are mad at Gwen Stefani for dressing like an Indian in her new video.

Cause you know, this IS actually gossip...

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5711/05/2012

That thread was already started several days ago, R57. Try the new search function, it (finally!) works really well.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5811/05/2012

r57 is not only a low-information voter, he is actually a low-information person.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5911/05/2012

If Obama wins, will there be another inauguration ceremony in D.C. like there was 4 years ago?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6011/05/2012

OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +1]

Gravis Marketing

Obama - 49

Romney - 48

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6111/05/2012

I'm in Central New York, where we have a tight House race, and I still have a landline. I've answered at least one live GOTV phone call from a campaign or party every night for about two weeks, though none tonight so far. That's not counting the unidentified numbers I don't answer, or the tons of robocalls from Repubs, many demonizing "San Francisco Liberal Nancy Pelosi" and such, or the hideous push-polls ("If you knew Big Government Democrat Dan Maffei supported killing puppies, would you be more or less likely to change your vote?").

I can only imagine what it's like to live in a swing state.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6211/05/2012

I'm with you too "North Carolina for Obama" - I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Obama could win it either...

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6311/05/2012

Nate Silver:

[quote]FYI: Internal polls released to the public have a 6-point bias, on average, as we saw in Wisconsin recall earlier this year.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6411/05/2012

What does that mean?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6511/05/2012

Nate Silver will be on The Colbert Report tonight.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6611/05/2012

R65, I think Nate is basically saying that the Romney internal polls leaked earlier today claiming he is ahead in most of the swing states are likely to be unreliable.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6711/05/2012

Exactly.

The media are skewing everything to make this a 'horse race' in order to get ratings.

It won't be a landslide, but it will be as comfortable a lead for Obama as he had in 2008.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6811/05/2012

Romney's just trying to keep the popular vote close now. If he can convince (read: lie) to Republican voters to give them a reason to make the effort to vote, he will.

I'm sure the GOP strategy has changed from winning the presidency to securing enough popular votes to give Obama hell in office.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6911/05/2012

[quote]It won't be a landslide, but it will be as comfortable a lead for Obama as he had in 2008.

In the Electoral College, yes, but probably not in the Popular Vote.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7011/05/2012

I wonder what Paul Ryan is thinking.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7111/05/2012

Peggy Noonan is a delusional cunt.

[quote] But to the election. Who knows what to make of the weighting of the polls and the assumptions as to who will vote? Who knows the depth and breadth of each party’s turnout efforts? Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.

[quote]I think they are and I think it’s this: a Romney win.

[quote]Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he’s caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what’s going on at the rallies is moving.

The woman is insane.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7211/05/2012

Oregon Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation of a Republican worker suspected of ballot-tampering:

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7311/05/2012

[quoye]Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments.

And how many of them are Mormons? Call me a cynic, but I suspect the word has gone out that it's time to stand for Brother Mitt.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7411/05/2012

Mitt's cast one hell of a long shadow over the LDS church. Many who know nothing about the church will think they are all lying liars who go around telling everyone exactly what they think they want to hear. AND would they be wrong?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7611/05/2012

Most white people, like Peggy Noonan, have completely lost their minds this election. They live in a bubble and have no idea that there's a whole other world out there.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7711/05/2012

I hate r75.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7811/05/2012

Gotta love these concern trolls. Working hard for Master Karl even on the eve of the election.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7911/05/2012

Let me just say this. To all you folks out there who flushed their Repug friends and acquaintances from your FB pages are missing a treat. There is starting to be just a hint of bitterness in their postings.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8011/05/2012

Christie: I speak to President Obama every day; he put Bruce Springsteen on the phone. #sandyonfox — @MyFoxNY via Facebook

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was effusive in his praise of President Barack Obama when the two leaders toured damage from Hurricane Sandy last week, turned down a request by Mitt Romney to appear with him at a rally on Sunday night in Pennsylvania, The Huffington Post has learned [...]

The Romney rally was held at a farm in Morrisville, Pa., not more than 20 minutes from Trenton, the New Jersey capital. The physical proximity of the event to New Jersey only added to questions in the Romney campaign about why Christie chose not to come.

"You can't tell me he couldn't have gone over there for a night rally," a Romney campaign source told HuffPost.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8111/05/2012

Here's something for Peggy Noonan regarding PA:

[quote]Howard Fineman on Hardball: GOP PA source says Obama up comfortably in state

MON NOV 05, 2012 AT 04:11 PM PST

Howard Fineman, whom I generally respect despite the occasional false equivalence, told Chris Matthews on Hardball tonight that he "just got off the phone" with the "top GOP" election/pollster source in Pennsylvania and that, while Romney made up a little ground, the source said Obama is still up "3 or 4 points" and that essentially Romney has no chance in the Keystone State.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8211/05/2012

[quote]I wonder what Paul Ryan is thinking.

"I am John Galt."

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8311/05/2012

Chuck Todd said that 50% of swing state voters have already voted.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8411/05/2012

[quote]"You can't tell me he couldn't have gone over there for a night rally," a Romney campaign source told HuffPost.

No one's saying that, you twit.

He no longer endorses Romney for president.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8511/05/2012

"I wonder what Paul Ryan is thinking."

Gee, Grandpa's potions and magic spells didn't work with voters the way he promised in the laboratory.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8611/05/2012

FLORIDA - PRESIDENT (TIE)

Gravis Marketing

Obama - 49

Romney - 49

----

11/4 - 11/5t

1060 LV

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8711/05/2012

MICHIGAN - PRESIDENT [Obama +5]

Mitchell Research

Obama - 51

Romney - 46

----

[quote]Mitchell Michigan Poll: Obama 51 - Romney 46

On the eve of the 2012 election, President Barack Obama has a 5 percent lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Michigan, according to the latest Mitchell Poll conducted for The Michigan View.com. Obama leads 51 percent-46 percent with 2 percent voting for someone else and just 1 percent undecided. The automated telephone survey of 1305 likely voters in the November general election was conducted November 4, 2012 and has a margin of error + or - 2.71 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence.

The survey also showed that U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow has a 14 percent lead over former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra (55-41). With a 5 percent lead going into the election, President Obama is poised to win Mitt Romney's home state of Michigan. Romney's lead is fueled by strong support from the approximately 1/3 of the voters who have cast an absentee ballot. Among those voters, Obama leads by 16 percent (57-41) while Romney leads by 1 percent (49-48) among those who are definitely voting tomorrow.

There has been a great deal of discussion about what percent of the voters that turn out tomorrow will be Democrats and Republicans.

According to our survey, the Democratic advantage in party affiliation is +7 percent (46-39). This is about half way between the 2004 voter turnout and the 2008 voter turnout. Despite the fact that he is leading, Obama won with this group of voters by 13 percent (55-42) in 2008. The Romney campaign is going to have to do a much better job than the Obama campaign in its Get Out the Vote efforts tomorrow if they are going to overcome a 5 percent margin. Some of the key findings are as follows:

- The gender gap is back. Obama leads with women by 13 percent (55-42) while Romney leads with men by just 3 percent (50-47).

- Obama leads by a large margin with younger voters. Among 18-29 year olds the lead is 67-23 and among 30-39 year olds it is 54-45. Obama leads 51-47 with 50-59 year olds. Obama and Romney are tied with 60-69 year old voters (49-49). Romney leads with just two age groups, 40-49 year olds (53-44) and 70 and over voters (50-48).

- Both candidates have solidified their leads with their own party. Obama leads among Democrats 93-6 while Romney leads with Republicans 93-7. Among Independents, Romney leads by 4 percent (48-44)

- By race, Obama leads by 92-7 with African-Americans while Romney leads with white voters by 7 (52-45). Among all other races, they are tied at 43 percent

- Obama currently leads in labor households by 22 percent (60-38) while Romney leads in non-labor households by 4 (50-46). About one-third of the voters live in labor households and two-thirds in non-labor households.

- Obama leads by an 88-6 margin in the City of Detroit. In the Tri-County area outside of Detroit, Obama leads by just 1 percent (49-48) while the areas outside the Tri-County area Romney leads by 1 percent (49-48).

In order to win Michigan, Romney had to do better in both the Tri-County area surrounding Detroit and out-state Michigan. He also had to do better with men voters than he is currently doing. Romney is actually slightly more popular than Obama. Fifty-three percent have a favorable impression of Romney while 47 percent have an unfavorable impression of him. Fifty-two percent have a favorable impression of Obama while 48 percent have an unfavorable impression of him. Among undecided voters, 67 percent have a favorable impression of President Obama while just 39 have a favorable impression of Mitt Romney.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8811/05/2012

Peggy Noonan is also praying to Baby Jesus (or his Mom) for Romney to win. What if it works?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8911/05/2012

[quote]Obama currently leads in labor households by 22 percent (60-38) while Romney leads in non-labor households by 4 (50-46).

Fucking Union members, are they asleep? Haven't they seen what the Republicans have tried in Wisconsin and what their plans are for unions everywhere? Union members should be going 90/10 for Obama.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9011/05/2012

[quote]Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.

Yes, we're all secretly planning a flash mob performance of Michael Jackson's Thriller.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9111/05/2012

Hello polltroll ....fingers crossed for tomorrow and good night

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9211/05/2012

OMG! Can you believe it's tomorrow?

It's going to be sad in a way when it's all over. Like the day after Christmas.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9311/05/2012

[quote] Peggy Noonan is also praying to Baby Jesus (or his Mom) for Romney to win. What if it works?

Wouldn't praying Beelzebub be more appropriate?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9411/05/2012

Chris Christie has a fucking disaster on his hands and you want him to show up at a rally in another state??! WTF is wrong with you?!!!

I'm glad that at least Christie understands his job description and feels accountable for the well being of the people who elected him.

What a gigantic narcissistic bunch of douches!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9511/05/2012

r93, are there any after election sales?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9611/05/2012

R93, I bet you'll be able to buy thousands of freeper-trolls willing to post on the message board of your choice for a quarter an hour.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9711/05/2012

[quote] To all you folks out there who flushed their Repug friends and acquaintances from your FB pages are missing a treat. There is starting to be just a hint of bitterness in their postings.

Please describe. I deleted my Facebok account a year ago in part due to not wanting to tolerate such fools, but there is nothing like a little schadenfreude!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9811/05/2012

Florida is supposed to get the big storm tomorrow!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9911/05/2012

Oh comments like "Well if he wins, he'll have to live knowing that half the country hates him." I wanted to point out to that one that he's been living with that the whole time he's been in office. And either way, they both have to live with that.

Comments over gun laws and how stupid Springsteen is.

Just comments that show at this point they're considering that they might lose.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10011/05/2012

Hopefully tomorrow it will be more vocalized.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10111/05/2012

UPI/CVOTER National - Obama 49%, Romney 48%

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10311/05/2012

I've been following this campaign for two years and it seems so odd that in just three hours election day will be finally be upon us.

Tell everyone you know to get out there. If people are waiting 7 hours to vote in Florida, they can get off their ass and spend a few minutes in line and vote for the President.

I don't know what I want to see more tomorrow -- a defeated Romney or a victorious Obama.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10411/05/2012

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

A few more polls to add. But Obama at 91% to win Electoral College based on today's data so far.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10511/05/2012

Mr. Silver has upped his forecast to Obama at a 91.4% chance of winning the Electoral College tomorrow.

The 'now-cast' (91.5%) and the election day forecast are almost the same now. The day really is almost here.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10611/05/2012

Nate has also finally flipped Florida in favor of Obama. He has a 52% chance of winning it now.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10711/05/2012

Josh Mandel's in-laws have taken out an ad in the Cleveland Leader denouncing his stance on gay marriage. Mandel is running against Sherrod Brown in the US Senate race in OH.

[quote]Open Letter to Josh Mandel, Republican 
Candidate for U.S. Senator from Ohio

 Dear Josh,

Four years ago you came into our family. We still remember the excitement surrounding your wedding, and how happy our family members were as they described it afterwards. So we were deeply saddened when you announced during your October 18th debate with Senator Sherrod Brown that you believe only some people should share this right to marry the person they love, while others should not.

Your cousins, Ellen Ratner and Cholene Espinoza, are among the many wonderful couples whose rights you do not recognize. They were married almost eight years ago in Massachusetts, at a time when it was the only state in the nation to allow same-sex marriage. Their wedding, like yours, was a beautiful and happy occasion for all of us in our family. It hurts us that you would embrace discrimination against them and countless other loving couples in Ohio and around the country.

We are equally distressed by your belief that gay men and women should not be allowed to serve openly in the military. Like you, Cholene spent many years in the armed forces. A graduate of the Air Force Academy and an accomplished pilot, she became the second woman in history to fly the U-2 reconnaissance plane. And yet, you have argued that she, like many gay and lesbian soldiers, should be forced to live a life of secrecy and lies.

Josh, as you know, our roots are deep in the Cleveland area and we have friends and family we love throughout Ohio. This family is sprawling and diverse, but it has always believed strongly in the values of equality and inclusiveness. Your discriminatory stance violates these core values of our family. Nevertheless we hope that over time, as you advance in years and wisdom, you will come to embrace the values of inclusiveness and equality as well.

Your cousins,

Michael Ratner, Bruce Ratner, Karen Ranucci, Pamela Lipkin, Rebecca 
Ratner, Elizabeth Ratner, Patrick Markee, Jacob Ratner, Ana Ratner[/quote]

Ouch.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10811/05/2012

Damn, Thanksgiving might have some tension at the Mandel/Ratner house this year.

Good for them.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10911/05/2012

Bruce Ratner, the Barclays Arena developer and NY Nets owner?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11011/05/2012

The always reliable Daily Mail says that Romney's internal polling shows him up a point in Ohio. Ever since 2000, I get nervous about these things. I remember George Stephanopolous' face falling when he called Ohio for Bush...

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11111/05/2012

FOXNEWS.com is running a story on their website: "Ditching the Electoral College."

Looks like the fat lady is running scales.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11211/05/2012

[quote] The always reliable Daily Mail

And this isn't parody?!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11311/05/2012

Unconfirmed reports of a FINAL CBS/NY Times Poll to be released around midnight:

Obama 51 Romney 49

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11411/05/2012

Voting starts at midnight in New Hampshire's erotic-sounding Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, as we learned from the "West Wing."

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11511/05/2012

[quote] I don't know what I want to see more tomorrow -- a defeated Romney or a victorious Obama.

Fortunately, we're going to get both!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11611/05/2012

That is a thoughtful and soberly worded letter, R108. The signatories are admirable and well-spoke. Let's hope the text and tenor of their letter have a lasting mental bite on the voters.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11711/05/2012

Nate Silver's models have just been updated to:

92.2% chance of Obama win

315 Electoral votes

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11811/05/2012

And the 'now-cast' is also 92.2%. We are at election day.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11911/05/2012

[quote]By race, Obama leads by 92-7 with African-Americans

SEVEN PERCENT of the black voters in this country are going to vote for MITTENS?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12011/05/2012

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

There's been a pretty clear shift toward Obama in national polls. Based on most recent data, he may lead by 2-3% in popular vote.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12111/05/2012

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12211/05/2012

I think the President is going to win the popular vote by from 5-7%.

Break 300 electoral votes.

And take North Carolina.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12311/05/2012

Are any other polls updating?

RCP is afraid to move their electoral map.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12411/05/2012

Thanks to the PT and Dr Lulu for the continued and informative updates. Even though I don't post in the poll threads, I do read them and appreciate the effort and links.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12511/05/2012

MAINE: Yes on 1

Most recent polling:

PPP: Maine's referendum to legalize gay marriage is leading for passage by a 52/45 margin, numbers virtually unchanged from 52/44 in our last survey. What we've found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way- this is likely to be a pretty close vote.

MARYLAND: Yes on 6

Most recent polling:

Goucher College: "Fifty-five percent of residents support allowing same-sex couples to marry legally in Maryland; 39 percent oppose it. When asked their opinion on the effects that legalizing same-sex marriage would have on society in general, 64 percent indicate that it would have either 'no effect,' or it would 'change society for the better.' Thirty-two percent say it will 'change society for the worse.'"

MINNESOTA: Vote NO on the marriage amendment

NOTE: All abstaining votes on the constitutional amendment will count as “no” votes. For instance, if a voter casts their vote in the Presidential election but does not vote either way on the marriage amendment, their vote will count as a no. For a constitutional amendment to pass in Minnesota, it must receive more than 50% of all ballots cast in the election.

Most recent polling:

PPP: The more interesting findings on our final Minnesota poll deal with the state's high profile amendments to ban gay marriage and require voter identification. We find both narrowly trailing. 45% of voters say they'll vote for the gay marriage ban, compared to 52% who are opposed to it. And 46% say they'll support the voter ID amendment to 51% who are opposed.

The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide. Seniors support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it, including a 36/62 margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it (79%) and Democrats oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents tip the balance by opposing it 41/55.

WASHINGTON: Approve Referendum 74

Insight on how/when results will be reported: "As few as 40% and as much as 60% of the vote is expected to be tallied and announced. Most counties will release their initial vote totals in one batch on election night. It is very unlikely that the Referendum 74 outcome will be known on election night.

Most recent polling:

Support for Referendum 74 is under 50 percent, and the measure to legalize same-sex marriage enjoys only a narrow four-point lead, according to a new statewide Elway Poll released on Wednesday.

Ref. 74 leads 49-45 percent in the poll, with a small sliver of undecideds — who often break “No” in statewide elections.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12611/05/2012

This morning Morning Joe reluctantly was conceding that Obama is probably the favorite.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12811/05/2012

Vote!!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12911/05/2012

VOTE for PRESIDENT OBAMA!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13011/05/2012

Dear God, R78! What is "The Blaze" anyway?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13111/05/2012

wow, r127's link is like a trip to an alternate universe . . . and the comments below are beyond cray-cray

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13211/05/2012

Glenn Beck's media conglomerate. It goes to show you how desperate these trolls have become when they have to link to that piece of crap.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13311/05/2012

[quote] ROMNEY LANDSLIDE: HERE ARE THE BIGGEST NAMES PREDICTING IT & HOW IT WILL HAPPEN

Damn. I haven't seen so much delusional thinking in one place since the Claymates started throwing their panties at the stage.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13411/05/2012

HA! I clicked on r127's link and the HUGE banner ad at the top of the page is Vote for Obama!

LOL!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13511/05/2012

R132, those people are way under medicated. Just wow, the crazy festering in those comments is scary.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13611/05/2012

Wow, you guys aren't kidding about the level of crazy in the comments on that BLAZE site. That's some staggeringly epic levels of crazy.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13711/05/2012

The comments on the Blaze are terrifying.

"Expect Martial Law as Obama and the commies won't give up power they've stolen."

They all seem to be cooking up these scenarios in their cracked heads whereby Obama is going to lose, but will refuse to leave office. One suggests that Alan West might have to intervene to prevent Civil War (Not. Making. This. Up.)

The Secret Service will have their work cut out for them these next four years. These white nationalists are about to *really* lose their shit.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13811/05/2012

I just watched the Obama rally in Des Moines. Obama got emotional. I really enjoyed it. They are great.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13911/05/2012

Thank you, Poll Troll, for your remarkable service to the Datalounge community.

Proud to be here with all of you.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14011/05/2012

Oh, and the Josh Mandel letter from his in-laws deserves its own thread. That is awesome.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14111/05/2012

I wonder what Thanksgiving dinner will be like at the Mandel gathering.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14211/05/2012

HAPPY ELECTION DAY! Fired up and Ready to Go! FORWARD!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14311/06/2012

Does anyone know what Obama's plans are for tomorrow? (Sorry, Dr. Fong, I'm west of you.) Is he going straight to Chicago?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14411/06/2012

Add me to the list. Love you, Poll Troll. Thank you and Dr. Fong.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14511/06/2012

Dixville Notch, New Hampshire has just voted and they are tied there, with Romney and Obama each getting five votes.

[quote]Dixville Notch is an unincorporated village in Dixville township of Coos County, New Hampshire, USA. The population of the township, all of whom live in the village, was 12 at the 2010 census. The village is known for being one of the first places to declare its results during United States presidential elections and the New Hampshire primary. It is located in the far north of the state, approximately 20 miles from Canada.

The village is named for the Dixville Notch mountain pass (or "notch," in White Mountains terminology) about 0.5 miles southeast of and 100 feet uphill from it, that lies between Dixville Peak and Sanguinary Mountain, and separates the Connecticut River's watershed from that of the Androscoggin. The village, situated at about 1,800 feet above sea level at the base of dramatic mountains, is the location of The Balsams Grand Resort Hotel; one of a handful of surviving New Hampshire grand hotels, it is situated on a 15,000-acre plot, accommodating golfing in the summer and skiing in the winter.

Dixville Notch is part of the Berlin, NH–VT Micropolitan Statistical Area.[/quote]

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14611/06/2012

The Dixville Notch constituency consisted of three Republicans, two Democrats, and five Independents.

Romney got two Independents, Obama got three.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14711/06/2012

[quote]Thank you, Poll Troll, for your remarkable service to the Datalounge community.

Thank you to you for the compliment. : )

Hard to believe the polls are finally almost over for the year!

I'm ready for a rest!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14811/06/2012

Obama will most likely win NEW HAMPSHIRE. Even Rasmussen showed Obama ahead there today in their final poll.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14911/06/2012

[quote]Nate Silver Update -- 11:29 PM ET on Nov. 5

Chance of Winning:

Obama = 92.0%

Romney = 8.0%

----

Electoral Vote:

Obama = 315.2

Romney = 222.8

----

Popular Vote:

Obama = 50.9%

Romney = 48.2%

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15011/06/2012

[quote]HA! I clicked on [R127]'s link and the HUGE banner ad at the top of the page is Vote for Obama!

That's targeted web advertising.

What appears there will vary based on cookies collected by your browser as you visit different sites.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15111/06/2012

[quote]Rasmussen: Obama WINS with 275 Electoral Votes

MON NOV 05, 2012 AT 06:52 PM PST

As we all know, Rasmussen weights its polls in a way that is most favorable to Mitt Romney.

As such, all of the Republican Party is clinging to hope that Rasmussen is right and Romney is able to squeak out a victory. Here's the problem though: Even Rasmussen is predicting an Obama victory.

Rasmussen and/or its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research has Obama winning NH, NV, PA, OH and WI and Romney winning VA, FL, CO and IA, which would leave the final electoral count a 275-263 Obama win.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15211/06/2012

Dixville Notch, NH has just voted:

Obama 23

Romney 9

Johnson 2

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15311/06/2012

Thanks R153, I was just looking for that.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15411/06/2012

R153, is that Dixville Notch, or is that Hart's Location?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15511/06/2012

I feel like I'm in an Aaron Sorkin show.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15611/06/2012

The numbers at R153 are actually Hart's Location, where Obama leads.

Dixville Notch is Tied at Obama-Romney, 5-5.

The tally in New Hampshire's two locations that voted this morning (Dixville Notch and Hart's Location): Obama: 28. Romney: 14

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15711/06/2012

OOPS! Hart's Location. My bad.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15811/06/2012

Posted by a friend of mine on Facebook earlier:

"Overheard at the post office: 'No, I'm not voting for Obama because HE'S black. I'm voting for Obama because I'M black."

Love it.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15911/06/2012

The only packing Obama is going to do is packing Romney's sorry ass off to Loserville.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16111/06/2012

"Looks like Obama can start packing, time for new leadership!"

R160, my husband IS packing. He's "Mr. President" every night of the week.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16211/06/2012

[quote]Looks like Obama can start packing, time for new leadership!

You poor, deluded thing.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16311/06/2012

Er... R160?

Timothy Leary called, he said you misunderstood the dosage.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16411/06/2012

Is it still 1 week to go?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16511/06/2012

I'll start a new thread with just today's date on it for Election Night later this morning, R165.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16611/06/2012

In case there are a million other posts tomorrow...thank you 2012 Poll Troll - you have been informative, you have been funny at times, you have warmed my political heart and helped me keep better abreast. We might never meet, but you've been very valuable and good to us here.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16711/06/2012

Thank-you for your appreciation, R167. : )

I should be here tomorrow night on the Election Night Thread.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16811/06/2012

Poll Troll, I thank you from the heart of my bottom.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16911/06/2012

New article from Nate Silver:

[quote]Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17011/06/2012

CBS News ‏@CBSNews

[quote]First Election Day voters, in two tiny New Hampshire locations, give Obama earliest lead

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17111/06/2012

Oopsy what will Mittens and Ann do? I'm sure they had BIG PLANS for the c...ountry

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17211/06/2012

Thank you, Poll Troll and Dr. Lulu Fong and Paul - this series of threads (and fivethirtyeight) has kept an ex-pat sane when even the UK liberal press was beating the Romney wardrums.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17311/06/2012

Investor's Business Daily/TIPP [Obama: +1.6]

Obama - 50.3

Romney - 48.7

---

Final Results: Nov. 5, 2012

For the first time since we started the poll, Obama garners 40% of the white vote. That's a critical threshold he had to hit in order to make a win possible.

Romney continues to hold a significant 6-point advantage with independents and a 14-point edge with investors.

Romney performs better with Conservatives than McCain did in 2008. Catholic voters are breaking for Romney. He now holds a 17-point lead among this group, up from just 1 point in the Oct. 28 poll.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17411/06/2012

This is late, but r32 my sister is in northern Ohio and she has the same sense of right wing majority, but she's going to school in Bum Fuck Ohio (near that city they set Glee in). She kept saying she was convinced Ohio was going to Romney and I kept telling her, You haven't read any Poll Troll posts. She had no idea what I was talking about of course so I just linked her to TPM and Nate Silver's blog.

Ohio is mostly Bumfuck-ville USA. But those large farm areas are mostly small populations.

P.S. I need new friends, all of my friends turned out to be crazy right wing republicans convinced Obama has done absolutely nothing right. I really wish Facebook had a hide political posts button.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17511/06/2012

just unfriend them.

a few good friends is beter than 100-200 assholes.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17611/06/2012

Woman from London on MSNBC just said The Times' US election section is its most clicked-on section online.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17711/06/2012

Been MIA awhile , Good work troll .Obama is going to win this thing today

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17811/06/2012

oh by

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17911/06/2012

And so shall it fucking be

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18011/06/2012

I'm waiting till about six P.M when all those crazies on CNN start creaming themselves over the magic map. It should be spectacular in its display of their complete stupidity.

"Oh look I just turned it green"

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18111/06/2012

Voted in Astoria, NY. They moved our polling place to a tiny rec room in a senior center (we'd been in the gym of a community center before). Also hearing reports on the radio that New York poll workers are turning away voters who are trying to do affadavit ballots because their polling places are closed due to the storm.

Dammit! We need the NUMBERS from this blue state!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18211/06/2012

R180 that is pure fantasy. There is no way they will call Ohio before 10 pm. I'd be shocked if they called it by midnight.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18311/06/2012

The networks (or at least NBC/MSNBC, which I watched in '08 and '10) have taken to categorizing some races as "too early to call" vs. "too close to call," which I assume means they have solid exit-voting information but are waiting for enough of the actual returns to confirm it.

So maybe in states where Obama has been leading in the late polls, "too early to call" might be less troubling than if any are deemed "too close."

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18411/06/2012

R182 go down there!

You have a citizen's right.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18511/06/2012

Obama at 71% on intrade.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18611/06/2012

Is there an online link to watch returns?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18711/06/2012

Mitt is still campaigning today.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18811/06/2012

Mitt is campaigning in Democratic areas in PA and OH. Why? To slow down traffic and slow down the votes there?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18911/06/2012

So, R182, are you saying that the polling workers didn't get Cuomo's fucking memo?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19011/06/2012

[quote]that is pure fantasy. There is no way they will call Ohio before 10 pm. I'd be shocked if they called it by midnight.

Just depends on how close it is. If Obama wins it by 4-5pts it easily could be called by 10pm.

In 2008 Ohio was called around 9:20 ET I believe.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19111/06/2012

The Post says the race is tied in NH.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19211/06/2012

What "Post"?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19311/06/2012

Washington Post

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19411/06/2012

Do you have the paper, R194?

I do. What page?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19511/06/2012

The Post is just talking about the Dixville Notch 5 to 5 tie between Romney and Obama, not calling New Hampshire as an overall tie.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19611/06/2012

Even Rasmussen has Obama up 2 in NH.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19711/06/2012

When you say it's tied in New Hampshire, are you referring to the polls, or are you referring to the early morning results in Dixie Notch?

Currently most polls and projections (even Rasmussen) show Obama winning New Hampshire by the end of tonight.

And with the numbers in Dixie Notch and Hart's Location, Obama actually currently leads in NH 28-14 right now.

Obama & Romney tied in Dixie Notch, but Obama pulled ahead in Hart's Location.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19811/06/2012

I do believe another poster said Obama won the Independents in that very small sample in Dixville?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19911/06/2012

Yes, R199.

And Obama is doing better in Hart's Location than in 2008.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20011/06/2012

Nate, you in danger girl. The pundits are waiting with sharpened knives for his predictions to fail. You can actually feel them willing Mitt on and trying to influence the public to vote Romney.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20111/06/2012

Since I have you on the line, PT12, I just wanted to tell you how much I have appreciated your threads and posts.

You have provided a significant level of comfort and sanity during these times of media madness.

Thank you so much for your patience and effort.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20211/06/2012

Thank-you, R202.

I'm going to go to bed and get some sleep for a few hours and will be back later today to get ready for Election Night.

Luckily I'm a lawyer who makes my own hours and works from home right now, otherwise I wouldn't have been able to spend so much time on the election this year. : )

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20311/06/2012

I wish you all good things, R203/PT12.

I'll be stuck at work until 7:00 with back-to-back clients so I will miss a lot of your coverage, but hopefully will get back here in time to go down to the wire.

Have a great day!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20411/06/2012

Poll Troll, let me join the legion of fans. You've helped distill the information beautifully.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20511/06/2012

Freeper wrote this:

[italic]I look at it this way. Romney will win FL, NC, VA, CO and NH - which brings him to 261. Among the larger tossup states, that leaves WI, MN, MI, PA, and OH. All are close, and Obama would have to win all 5 to keep Romney below 270.

But even if he does win all 5, Obama would need also need to take 2 out of 3 from IA, NV and OR.

And even if he does take IA nd NV, Romney can still get to 269 by taking OR and winning 1 electoral vote from Maine.

So for all this talk about Romney needing to "run the table", the way I see it, Obama has to virtually run the table among the tossups I mentioned, which admittedly could go either way. [/italic]

Well?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20611/06/2012

The Freepers live in a whole alternative reality, bless them.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20711/06/2012

So now we're throwing Oregon out there? And a post that begins "Romney will win FL, NC, VA, CO, and NH".

At best he is leading in NC and "maybe" FL. He's down in NH and CO. So you're premise isn't even good.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20811/06/2012

Oregon? Maine?

Why not just add Mars to the Romney column??

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20911/06/2012

Well, what, r206? The Freeper's premise is wrong. Of the states he assumes Romney will win, only NC is likely his. The others in that group are toss-ups. Then, those he calls toss-ups are all leaning Obama or even certainly Obama.

So, Romney has to win all the toss-ups and somehow turn all the Obama-leaning states to his column.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21011/06/2012

Trending on Twitter for the United States as of this moment:

#ImSickOf Happy Election Day #VoteObama #TeamObama #GoVote #Obama2012 Vote for Obama Halo 4 Ohio Florida

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21111/06/2012

Oregon and Maine are about to go Republican only if the winning candidate from that party -- and it won't be with Mitt Romney in 2012 -- wins a popular-vote margin of 5, 6, or as much as 7 points.

These are base states for the Democratic Party. Ore. hasn't voted Republican since 1984 and Me. last colored red in 1988. Their margins routinely carry several points bluer than how the nation votes. In 2008, Ore. was 9 and Me. was 10 points bluer than President Obama's popular-vote margin of over 7 points in beating John McCain.

Whoever brings up that bullshit is just someone jerking himself off. (And without linking us to the pictures, it does no good.)

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21211/06/2012

Thank you, 2012 Poll Troll!

(Now get yourself some sleep!)

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21311/06/2012

That's only because #NateSilverwaswrong hasn't opened yet!!!!!!!AAAAAACCCCCKKKKKK

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21411/06/2012

Well, the Prez just called me and told me to go vote so I'm off.

I'm in Ohio so I expect the lines to be long. I will give a full report when I return. If anything interesting is happening.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21511/06/2012

Take your cell phone, R215. Have that camera ready.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21611/06/2012

OREGON going repug? Sorry, I just hurt myself laughing.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21711/06/2012

Does anyone know the latest on that "software patch" on the Machines in Ohio?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21811/06/2012

The Romney campaign now saying internals attributed to their pollster Neil Newhouse showing Mitt up in Ohio, tied in WI, PA "are incorrect" — @GlennThrush via web

Those leaked internal poll numbers were fake.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21911/06/2012

Oregon is even bluer than CA. A state that passed the Death with Dignity Act isn't going to flip red just for Romney.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22011/06/2012

So is he admitting those are goners? What's going on!!?!?!?!?!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22111/06/2012

3-hour long lines in Miami-Dade county to vote.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22211/06/2012

How long are the lines for the boys and girls in Wilton Manors, Florida?

They'll be re-electing Debbie Wasserman-Schultz no doubt.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22311/06/2012

r219 That is .. Bwwwhhhhhahahahahahah ha ha ha ha ha ha hahahahahah no shit! LOL.

Fuck... lol

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22411/06/2012

[quote]Those leaked internal poll numbers were fake.

Wow.... even for them, that's pretty blatant. That's right out of Rove's playbook.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22511/06/2012

Obama destroying Romney in Texas!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22611/06/2012

R218, If I understand it correctly the "patch" isn't actually on the voting machines, it's on the tabulating machines that count the votes and report them to the SOS.

These machines are even more vulnerable to hacking than the voting machines themselves because of looser certification requirements.

The change is supposed to make it easier to report the vote counts, even there was no problem with that in the last election. Also experimental patches like this are only supposed to be used in a few precincts, not half the state.

There's a hearing this morning. The tabulation machines don't actually kick in until after the polls close so there's time to switch back to the older system used in the last election.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22711/06/2012

Linda McMahon trying to win the votes of low-information Democratic voters by telling voters to vote for her and for Obama, using her Independent Party candidateship to hide the fact that she's a Republican. See link for details. The chutzpah there is strong with that one.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22811/06/2012

I told you so, r219.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22911/06/2012

Angus Reid, NATIONAL

Obama 51 Romney 48

Obama leads with Independents (55%)

(11/05/12) - Obama Holds Upper Hand Over Romney in National U.S. Race

Incumbent particularly strong with younger voters and Independents—Republican remains ahead among voters aged 55 and over.

Barack Obama heads to the final stages of the United States presidential race with a three-point advantage over Mitt Romney, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,050 American likely voters, 51 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+4 since October) say they will back the incumbent head of state and Democratic Party nominee in tomorrow’s election, while 48 per cent (+1) would support the Republican Party challenger.

Obama has extended his lead among registered voters aged 18-to-34 (66% to 32%), and keeps a six-point edge among female voters (52% to 46%). The two candidates are tied among male voters and those aged 35-to-54, while Romney is more popular among voters over the age of 55 (58% to 41%).

Both candidates keep strong numbers among their respective bases, with Obama garnering 94 per cent of the vote from Democrats, and Romney getting the support of 94 per cent of Republicans. More than half of Independents (55%) say they will cast a ballot for Obama, while two-in-five (42%) will support Romney.

The biggest fluctuation is observed among third party voters, who go from six per cent

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23011/06/2012

Lol. Thanks R226.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23111/06/2012

I live in bumfucke, Southwest Virginia, and have never had to wait longer than 10 minutes to vote in my life. This morning, I had to wait an hour, the line was so long.

I also happen to live in a predominately Black precinct and know the faces of the poll workers--they haven't changed in about six years and they are all Black. This year, for the first time, there were two sinister looking white women sitting in chairs near the poll workers, double checking each name in a large book as each person showed their ID to vote. I assumed they were some of those True The Vote assholes. I wanted to call them out, but didn't dare. I just wanted to get my vote cast, but it pissed me off just the same.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23211/06/2012

[bold]Chrysler gives workers the day off to vote[/bold]

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23311/06/2012

What kind of Campaign makes us Fake Internal Numbers that still only have them BARELY winning? One that is losing. While their fake numbers were laughable, they did not even feel confident enough to make the numbers more decisive. Their fakery is even timid.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23411/06/2012

r232 you should have called them out or reported them

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23511/06/2012

r232 those True the vote asswipes are being barred for intimidation in Ohio.

DON'T LET ANYONE BE INTIMIDATED.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23611/06/2012

r232, so you live in Galax?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23711/06/2012

r234, they were probably thinking that people would feel more inclined to vote if it's "close" and they think their own votes make a difference. If they appeared to be winning by large numbers, people would stay home.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23811/06/2012

Back from voting in Ohio. It was about a 20 minute wait. The gym we vote in was PACKED and they had set up extra booths and tables for everyone.

A very steady stream of voters at 11am.

Interesting to note - there was NO ONE from the Rmoney campaign in "the gauntlet" - only democrats. I found this not only odd but amusing. Maybe they figure this particular area of Ohio is red so they don't need to bother -?

Sorry, r216, I don't have a cell phone so no pix. It is a gorgeous day here (a little cool but very sunny) so I expect the turnout to be very good.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23911/06/2012

Where have a heard that before....

....oh, I've been saying it all along.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24011/06/2012

Just to add to all the rest, POLL TROLL, Thanks for your concern, your interest and your work - you have been a great "sanity assist" during these last months; you always have a safe house here in Kansas with me (I know, it is a scary thought, but I continue to work and hope for a return to the days when 2 of our 4 US Reps were Dems and we had a Dem governor - it just shows how rapidly things can be destroyed without constant vigilance). Will watch for your new thread. Thanks again! Best always!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24111/06/2012

Thank you, Poll Troll.

As others have said you've been a great comfort.

Just a request though, when you wake up, can we have a new ELECTION DAY RESULTS thread?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24211/06/2012

Another thanks PT

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24311/06/2012

IS THIS THE website to go to for the results as they come ??

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24411/06/2012

Reports from election observers and voters: Broken scanners and too many provisionals by Free Press staff November 6, 2012

The Free Press is receiving multiple reports of ES&S optical scan machines in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland). One specific polling site where this is happening is the University Heights Library. Also, at the Driving Park polling site in Columbus' inner city, many voters' names are not showing up on the voting list and they are being forced to vote provisionally. The lines for provisional voters are longer than the ones for regular voting.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24511/06/2012

Obama Ohio poll observers' suppression protocol explained:

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24611/06/2012

MSNBC: Pennsylvania voting machine that turned an Obama vote into a Romney vote taken offline

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24711/06/2012

Biden is going to OH.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24811/06/2012

When and where, r248? If he's close, I just might have to go see him.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24911/06/2012

I think he's already here, r249.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25011/06/2012

Cleveland. He seems to be there now.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25111/06/2012

Thanks, r251. Can't make it, dammit.

Maybe he'll stay here and travel around the state and I can catch him then.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25211/06/2012

Fox News is reporting that team Obama wants their supporters to keep "calm".

WTF does that mean? Good or bad?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25311/06/2012

They're still pushing that whole "revenge" thing, R253. It's bullshit and you can ignore it.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25411/06/2012

They don't want us having a spontaneous Mardi Gras celebration all across the nation for O.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25511/06/2012

Guardian UK offers: Your printout guide to the 2012 US election

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25611/06/2012

Take the Obama campaign's advice and calm down, R253.

Here's what the campaign is saying: details about exit polling may leak out early. The problem with exit polling this year is that the Obama campaign has been very active in getting people to vote before election day. Their votes are, in effect, 'pre-loaded.' But these voters would not be sampled in exit polling, which is done only of people voting today.

So, traditional exit polling will most likely under-sample Obama voters.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25711/06/2012

Thanks, r257.

Chuck Todd was saying that if the white turnout is above 74%, Romney will most likely win.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25811/06/2012

There are so many reports of dirty voting tricks and suppression happening today, all designed to give Romney the win.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25911/06/2012

Agreed, r259, but as opposed to 2004, the Democrats are in the White House and ready for it. They won't let them get away with it. If there's any possibility of software improprieties in Ohio, they'll blow the lid off it. Hopefully, we won't need Ohio and the whole thing with explode in their faces. That would be lovely.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 26011/06/2012

[quote]Hopefully, we won't need Ohio and the whole thing with explode in their faces. That would be lovely.

Yes! That's what I've been thinking/hoping too R260.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 26111/06/2012

That's interesting, r256. Much better visuals than I've seen on US sites.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 26211/06/2012

were is the troll

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 26311/06/2012

I think he's sleeping. He was up late. Or she.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 26411/06/2012

Do you think the campaigns at this point have a good idea how it's going?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 26511/06/2012

Yes, r265.

Fox News just said that Paul Ryan is going to VA, today.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 26611/06/2012

So Virgina is actually starting to look light blue!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 26711/06/2012

Let's assume for a minute Ohio could drag on.

What do we need to KNOW Obama's going to take it? Even regardless of Ohio?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 26811/06/2012

I would love for Obama to win Virginia or North Carolina along with two of Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (assuming Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are locks).

Then Florida and Ohio go can suck a bag of dicks.

If Obama fails to carry Virginia or North Carolina, we're not going to have a result tonight.

And then there's the scenario where Obama loses (or the vote counts cannot be finalized in) Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio..but takes New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada for 272 and the win.

Obama would likely lose the popular vote and freeper heads will pop off shoulders across the land.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 26911/06/2012

Spent the day at a phone bank calling most Ohio (a few PA) voters for Obama. Observations: no one under 30 answers their own phones (we were told not to leave a message); EVERYONE over 70 answers their own phone. Anecdotally, there are a fair amount of seniors who don't like Romney.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 27011/06/2012

Should we trust the exit polling that's about to come out?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 27111/06/2012

[quote]I think he's sleeping. He was up late. Or she.

I have arrived!

And it's 'he'. : )

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 27211/06/2012

I'm hearing there is record turnout in VA, and Cuyahoga County in Ohio.

Chuck Todd just turned up on Hardball, looking like he wants to shoot himself in the face.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 27311/06/2012

From Markos Moulitsas, Daily Kos:

[quote]Tight LV voter screens in polls assumed lower Dem turnout. We're not seeing that , suggesting final results will look like RV results

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 27411/06/2012

Chuck Todd's just DYING for a Romney win. Chris Matthews was saying things would be good for Obama if he wins Virginia, but Todd tried to shoot that idea down and say that Mittens still has plenty of paths to win.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 27511/06/2012

Chuck Todd is seriously fucking ugly and he isn't that bright. He really has no business being on TV and I can't believe he will be on MSNBC all night tonight.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 27611/06/2012

Chuck Todd is REALLY fucking annoying me. I think he'll be on NBC and I won't have to see him much tonight.

Wolf Blitzer just said that the Romney team has only written a victory speech.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 27711/06/2012

[quote]Wolf Blitzer just said that the Romney team has only written a victory speech.

In Mary Matalin & James Carville's book about '92, she wrote about how Bush campaign made up stories about how good turn out was for them.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 27811/06/2012

[quote]Wolf Blitzer just said that the Romney team has only written a victory speech.

Of course.

Victory speeches lay out the course the candidate will take over the next months.

Concessions speeches confirm that the losing candidate has called the winner (first line...always), thank voters and then urges them to support the victor.

It's all over in a minute.

So Wolf maybe right.

But Romney won't be president.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 27911/06/2012

I think Chuck Todd has a personality disorder.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 28011/06/2012

WASHINGTON (AP) — Preliminary results of an exit poll conducted for The Associated Press show that the presidential election hinges once again on the economy.

The survey of voters as they leave polling places Tuesday shows 6 in 10 voters say the economy is the top issue facing the nation, with unemployment and rising prices hitting voters hard.

About 4 in 10 say they think the nation’s economy is on the mend, but more say that things are getting worse or are bad and stagnating.

About half of voters say the previous president, George W. Bush, shoulders more of the blame for economic challenges than President Barack Obama.

Just a quarter of those surveyed in the exit poll say they are better off than four years ago.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 28111/06/2012

Yeah, the victory speech tidbit is not news. No campaign would ever publicly state to the news media that they'd written a concession speech before polls had even closed - THAT's just plain incompetent, and it hurts morale within the campaign - it's a slap in the face to all the volunteers, workers and donors who've poured out everything to make it to the finish line.

A concession speech can easily be written once polls are closed and results start coming in. I did think John McCain's concession speech in 2008 was nicely done - he had a great line about serving his country being the highest calling he'd ever had, and his campaign also prevented Palin from speaking and souring the tone of everything.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 28211/06/2012

R281, so I guess that exit poll is from Washington state? Not much insight into how people think of things in an actual battleground state. I do think it's interesting that there's a mixture of views on the economy and who's responsible - that people can acknowledge that they're not as well off as they were four years ago, while not placing the blame on the current President.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 28311/06/2012

The exit poll numbers are actually good news.

"The country's on the right track" numbers are up about 20% from 2008.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 28411/06/2012

The majority of exit polls also request no appeal for Obamacare.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 28511/06/2012

Sorry, meant no REPEAL.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 28611/06/2012

"Sorry, hon, Chuck Todd is a master at this."

Chuck Todd wipes back to front, on a good day. Nate Silver and his ilk are where it's at these days.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 28811/06/2012

I know this isn't poll related, but I had to look up the transcript of McCain's concession speech in 2008. Whatever little I thought of him or his campaign, his concession speech was truly classy, humane, and humble, and a great credit to him.

I honestly don't know what to expect from Romney's (probable) concession. Some associates say he's a truly "nice" man who simply lacks any sort of integrity and will say or pretend anything to get the deal done. Whatever his faults, at least John McCain saw himself as a servant to the country - I can't imagine Romney as having the humility to see himself as "serving" anyone.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 28911/06/2012

[quote]Sam Stein -- some rare, non spin on twitter --> RT @jmartpolitico: A senior GOPer w close ties to Romneyland emails a single word: "worried."

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 29011/06/2012

Interesting read.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 29111/06/2012

Todd is spinning a nail biting narrative.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 29211/06/2012

I wonder if this is true:

David Shuster ‏@DavidShuster Conservative Drudge report showing Obama leading exit polls in PA, MI, NH, NV, and OH. If that holds, Romney is toast. #current2012

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 29311/06/2012

You never know with Drudge, R293, but you're right that it's over for Romney if those are the real numbers.

Remember that exit polls are sometimes off though.

Btw, I should start my Election Night thread. . .

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 29411/06/2012

Most interesting part of R291's link to me (piece is a perspective from a self-serving conservative), is his treatment of the "silent majority" argument, which is what most conservative pundits are running with - that pollsters have missed a groundspring of angry white voters who will overwhelm the polls today and give Romney a landslide:

"Too much faith in a conservative wave.

Conservatives like to think that there is a "silent majority" out there that the media/pollsters will suddenly show up on Election Day. There is very little evidence that this actually exists. The 2010 election deludes conservatives because they don't seem to realize that in presidential elections the turnout is much higher, especially in the states that actually matter. Republicans only have "tides" in low turnout elections. When the "low info" voters get to the polls, Democrats simply can't be blown out in the key states. I never understood why conservative commentators couldn't understand that Obama's turnout would be just fine in the states which would actually decide the election."

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 29511/06/2012

[quote]Remember that exit polls are sometimes off though.

True PT12, I'm going to wait for more reliable info.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 29611/06/2012

Poll Troll, post a link when you do. TIA.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 29711/06/2012

But Exit Polls were a disaster in 2004 weren't they? I seem to have blocked it out under the weight of four more years of Bush-induced trauma.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 29811/06/2012

I hate going to Drudge but his headline is indeed:

EXIT POLL BOOM FOR O

R: NC, FL

O: OH, NH, PA, MI, NV

TOSS UP: VA, CO, IA

Wow.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 29911/06/2012

On the exit polls - those are just for Election Day voters, correct? It's already well-established that Obama has a lead among early voters, and that Romney needs to overcome that lead significantly on Election Day itself to win.

If polls of Election Day voters show Obama up (or even tied), then that's really good news for him, unless the polls are somehow trying to take early voting into account.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 30011/06/2012

OK WE HAVE MOVED

TO THE 2012 POLL TROLL ELECTION NIGHT THREAD

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 30111/06/2012

Regarding this quote from the end of the article linked by r291

[quote] Mitt Romney is a great man who America would have been proud to have as their president. Instead, as it turns out, perhaps we as a country didn't really deserve him.

I can agree that America doesn't deserve a president like Mitt. Lol.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 30211/06/2012

DONT TRUST EXIST POLLS , even if its favorable for us

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 30311/06/2012

I'm so nervous for the election. Turned off the TV this past week and no news because I couldn't handle the stress. But Tueday I will vote and turn on Rachel Maddow.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 30411/10/2012

Um, r304 the election happened on the 6th. Speaking of, why am I still seeing ads from American Crossroads?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 30511/12/2012
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