If Nate Silver Is Proven Correct In The 2012 Presidential Race
despite so many major polls resulting in the opposite in what he's projecting, what will this mean for him, and what will it mean for the polling industry? Silver, I think, will become a national celebrity, and the polling companies will never recover after being so damn wrong.
I also think that Nate will become one of the top enemies of the Republican party. The country a lot of times goes along with the pack, and if they can be convinced that a certain person is where everyone is flocking to, deeming them a winner, Republicans can win. They've been trying to do this with Romney with the whole 'Romney momentum' thing. Nate will simply bury this nonsense since everyone will see how accurate he is, and go with whoever he deems as having the true momentum. No one will able to manipulate the numbers. Republicans have been excellent in pushing bullshit, and having the masses lap it up.
Why do you think Republicans launched the UnSkewed Polls website? It's because of people like Nate.
|by Anonymous||reply 35||11/07/2012|
[quote]despite so many major polls resulting in the opposite in what he's projecting
This makes no sense. His predictions are *based* on the polls. What polls are saying the opposite of what he's saying?
|by Anonymous||reply 1||11/03/2012|
The polls ALL support Silver's predictions. Even Rasmussen has begun falling into line to cover his own ass.
|by Anonymous||reply 2||11/03/2012|
What are the "many major polls" you're talking about? And I wish you'd proofread before posting . . .
|by Anonymous||reply 3||11/03/2012|
Sigh. So many mistakes OP.
The polls are not in conflict with Nate Silver. Silver's model primarily relies on polling data. Those polling companies are his bread and butter.
Instead of just mentioning the polls and then going to to make statements about the race based on feelings and talking points, Silver's model is just a statistical prediction based on polls and other factors about how likely different outcomes of the race are.
Silver isn't really an enemy of the Republican party, he was an early predictor of the huge Republican sweep, he is the "enemy" traditional election pundits.
And it isn't JUST Silver. There are tons of other groups who make models based on the polls and THEY ALL SHOW THE SAME THING. He is just the most famous of them.
|by Anonymous||reply 4||11/03/2012|
Trollin', Trollin', keep those trolls arollin'.
|by Anonymous||reply 10||11/03/2012|
Considering the method overwhelmingly used for polling is by phone, I'm wondering if a biased sample is being produced. Seems that by the time the next election rolls around, this will be an even larger issue.
If anything, though, I would bet that this polling method under-represents Democrats, so it's possible the Republicans might be even further behind this time than they know.
I like Nate Silver a lot. Great role model for young gays -- smart, influential, not coasting on looks.
|by Anonymous||reply 11||11/03/2012|
Exactly, phone polling is certainly more likely to get older people who are more likely to support Romney. Polls are not an exact science, of course, but Silver looks at all polling data and although progressive is devoted to science (as if those things are inconsistent when, of course, they are not) and has predicted Republican sweeping victories (the last Congressional election, for instance) when the statistics indicated them.
|by Anonymous||reply 12||11/03/2012|
"Silver was recently exposed as a homosexual."
Just because a guy knows how to line up a dozen poles and make them all come together doesn't mean he's gay.
|by Anonymous||reply 13||11/03/2012|
The genius of Nate Silver is that he did something that anyone with a basic knowledge of statistics and math could do. He is not cooking the books or creating any numbers, he is using the data supplied by all of the polling firms in a model that some have called too conservative.
Nate has had a lot of shade thrown his way this election, mainly my network pundits who were desperate for a horse race and eventually got it. Ad spending during the election has reached an historic high. Candidates don't buy commercial time when one candidate is running away with it.
An aggregate of the polls and data is all we have to go on. I have a good feeling about Tuesday, but I am not going to celebrate until Mitt concedes.
OP all you had to do was a quick Google search and there would have been no need for this thread. Nate Silver is not the enemy, he is just a quirky gay nerd who likes to crunch numbers.
|by Anonymous||reply 14||11/03/2012|
Time for your enema, OP.
The army bird starts in just an hour.
|by Anonymous||reply 15||11/03/2012|
Silver's model does not just rely on polls. It factors in economic data and past election patterns, and it filters the various polls for what have been shown to be the respective biases of the polling organizations.
|by Anonymous||reply 16||11/03/2012|
in other words, it's great.
|by Anonymous||reply 17||11/03/2012|
They hate Nate because they hate math.
|by Anonymous||reply 18||11/03/2012|
I love that what's really driving the Republicans crazy is that they know Silver's prediction isn't just wishful thinking. In order for his career to continue, Silver can't be just spouting what he WANTS to happen -- his entire reputation and livelihood depends on his being accurate, and that means he's doing his homework and being as cautious as possible.
|by Anonymous||reply 19||11/03/2012|
R19, the other thing that drives them crazy is that he, as much as anyone, put the lie to the Romney campaign's constant cry of "momentum." They were hoping to create a self-fulfilling prophecy but Silver was able to show that the numbers just weren't supporting that.
|by Anonymous||reply 20||11/03/2012|
I believe Nate. I don't trust MSM because they need to lie about how close it is so as to remain relevant and keep ratings up.
|by Anonymous||reply 21||11/03/2012|
OP and R22, you're really confused if you're not a troll.
Silver is not predicting a landslide. Where do you get such bullshit?
He's predicting a win of the electoral college, by a margin of 70 votes, or about 56% of the electoral college (305/538). the popular vote will be closer and Silver has never said otherwise.
Can YOU do math?
Read his blog again today, where he explains statistically why he's basing his analysis on the polls themselves, nothing more.
|by Anonymous||reply 23||11/03/2012|
I agree with R23. What's your game here, R22/OP?
|by Anonymous||reply 24||11/03/2012|
Thank you for your response, R23; You posted before I could.
Where do all of these morons come from? Sigh.
|by Anonymous||reply 25||11/03/2012|
The polls are NOT showing everything tied, r22/OP.
And in most of the swing states Obama is well ahead.
|by Anonymous||reply 26||11/03/2012|
What Nate Silver provides is analysis of the polls. Polls are noisy, just on the basis of being samples. Also, different polling organizations have biases, one way or another. Nate and others like him sift through the noise to find the signal.
|by Anonymous||reply 27||11/03/2012|
OP if not a troll is allowing himself to be confused by weekly national polls that are not weighted by state and based on the electoral college.
Silver is currently showing Obama with only a 2% lead in the popular vote, which is consistent with Obama's approval rating and the current national polling. When those polls showed 49 for one and 48 for the other Silver reflected that.
Polling state by state and how electoral votes are distributed, it shifts to 56%-44% today and Silver was showing it tighter with 52% of the electoral college and uncertainty giving 3-4% of the electoral college in play but leaning to the president in states the president was slightly leading in the polls.
it's polling + understanding the electoral college, nothing more
|by Anonymous||reply 28||11/03/2012|
The Republican trolls are such tryhards.
|by Anonymous||reply 29||11/03/2012|
So far, he's looking pretty good.
|by Anonymous||reply 30||11/07/2012|
Every likely or safe state Nate called has gone the way he called.
|by Anonymous||reply 31||11/07/2012|
Yup. Right now, we're just waiting for Florida, I think, and Nate had called that one as 50.3% chance of an Obama win.
|by Anonymous||reply 32||11/07/2012|
[quote] Exactly, phone polling is certainly more likely to get older people who are more likely to support Romney.
Phone polling is more likely to get stupid people who either don't have or don't know how to use caller I.D and just pick up their phone every time it rings
|by Anonymous||reply 33||11/07/2012|