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Uh -oh. GOP's worst nightmare: The economy is coming back!

(Reuters) -[bold] Retail sales rose in September as Americans stepped up purchases of everything from cars to electronics, a sign that consumer spending is driving faster economic growth. [/bold]

Other U.S. data on Monday pointed to an economy feeling the effects of cooling global growth, with New York state factory activity shrinking in October.

But consumer spending remains the U.S. economy's biggest engine, and expectations for third-quarter economic growth improved after the Commerce Department reported a 1.1 percent increase in retail sales during September.

The reading, which beat analysts' forecasts, builds on other signs of growing economic momentum, including a drop in the jobless rate last month and a rise in consumer confidence.

"The news flow on the U.S. economy keeps getting better," said Chris Williamson, an economist at Markit in London.

[bold]Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm, raised its outlook for the pace of third-quarter economic growth to 1.9 percent, up three tenths of a point from its previous view.[/bold]

The details of the retail sales report showed broad strength, with sales outside autos, gasoline and building materials -- a closely followed barometer of consumer spending -- climbing 0.9 percent last month. That was well above expectations.

"This is a good end of (the) third quarter and we have some good momentum to the fourth quarter," said Craig Dismuke, an economic strategist at Vining Sparks in Memphis, Tennessee.

Still, there were signs that some of the boost in spending could prove fleeting.

Sales at electronics retailers advanced 4.5 percent. Some analysts said that might reflect sales of Apple's newest iPhone model. If that is the case, that strength might show up in October as well and then fade, said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

STEADY FED

Other temporary factors might be lending support as well. Sales at food and beverage stores climbed 1.2 percent, which might reflect some of the increase in food prices due to a recent drought. Also, receipts at gasoline stations rose 2.5 percent, reflecting an increase in prices paid at the pump.

Even if the pick-up in growth is lasting, the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to reduce its support of the economy anytime soon, and one prominent U.S. central banker said on Monday the Fed won't rush its response to positive economic signals.

In September, the Fed launched a new open-ended plan to buy mortgage-backed securities until the labor market improves substantially. The Fed also pledged to keep interest rates low until even after the economy strengthens.

U.S. stock prices rose and yields on U.S. government debt climbed, as investors bet the data showed an improved economic outlook.

Sluggish demand and the drought restricted the economy to a 1.3 percent annual growth pace in the April-June period. Indeed, since the 2007-09 recession, weak growth has bedeviled the U.S. labor market.

Still, the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen surprisingly fast in recent months, dropping to 7.8 percent in September in a potential boost for President Barack Obama's chances of reelection on Nov 6.

In another report on Monday, the Commerce Department said U.S. business inventories increased 0.6 percent in August as auto dealers restocked.

Despite the positive signals on consumer spending, the economy faces stiff headwinds from abroad.

The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index registered minus 6.16 in October -- an improvement from the prior month but less of one than was expected.

It was the third straight month the index pointed to contraction in activity in New York state manufacturing, and the latest sign that the cooling of the global economy is being felt at American factories.

Economic growth has slowed around the globe as Europe's debt crisis has weighed on demand for manufactured goods, including those from China. (cont...)

by Anonymousreply 5410/03/2013

Worries about the European crisis and the possibility of belt tightening next year by the U.S. government have led many companies to postpone investments. For now, at least, consumer spending appears to be making up for some of that weakness.

by Anonymousreply 110/15/2012

But he's BLAAAAAAAAAAAACK!!!!!!!!!!

by Anonymousreply 210/15/2012

OP-

Since the economy is worse than it was 6 years ago...well, don't you feel stupid?

by Anonymousreply 408/24/2013

LMAO

by Anonymousreply 808/24/2013

R6-

Smart people saw that 2007 was the top. If you look at income, unemployment, equity...then 72 months ago was the peak for most. Since you failed at simple math, that's 6 years.

by Anonymousreply 908/24/2013

From 2007- the author saw that the country was already in recession, and could pinpoint the reason.

----

The most important signal flashing recession is, of course, the sub-prime mortgage fiasco. After years of monetary inflation on the part of the Federal Reserve, individuals and families with poor credit were suckered into low-down-payment/low-interest adjustable mortgages that simply cannot be maintained or repaid under current conditions. Their incentive is to sell the property quickly before their equity evaporates and/or the financial institution repossesses it. Yet the massive oversupply of homes and condos for sale has pushed prices down at a record clip and made additional foreclosures even more likely. Next year, unfortunately, will be the Year of the Auction.

The financial institutions have also been punished…well sort of. Various institutions including hedge funds that hold these poorly performing debt obligations have been forced (by accounting rules) to “write down” the value of these assets, take huge paper losses in the bargain, and pull in their financial horns. Thus, any near-term recovery in housing must now fight a record supply availability, falling prices, higher insurance costs and restricted credit…a near-term impossibility in my view.

by Anonymousreply 1008/24/2013

A look at 2007 from 2011-

-----

From the very beginning, mainstream media and government officials have down-played the economic crisis. In 2007, when the crisis started in the midst of the Presidential election, John McCain and other republicans actually refused to talk about it. It was not until the banking and mortgage crisis became apparent in late 2008 that McCain called for a suspension of his Presidential campaign so that he and then candidate Obama could return to Washington to save the American economy. A crisis that had taken many years and tens of trillions of dollars in leverage to create would be resolved, if you believed Congress, within a matter of a couple weeks through the passage of an $800 billion dollar “bailout.”

It was serious enough for Congressman Brad Sherman to tell us Congress had been warned about the possibility of martial law and tanks in the streets, but not serious enough to warrant any significant changes to how regulatory agencies investigate financial fraud or legislation that would make it easier for Americans to start and grow their businesses. Backed by 24 by 7 media propaganda, the crisis was quickly marginalized and within few months the stock market came roaring back.

The nomenclature used by the best and brightest on Wall Street and in the fourth estate has attempted, from the get go, to coerce Americans into believing that things on Wall Street and Main Street were business as usual. While alternative media and contrarian economists warned Americans about impending doom in financial markets, the economy and geo-political happenings around the world, media pundits downplayed the possibility, referring to it only as a “double dip.” This, of course, conjures up images from our childhood. A double dip isn’t all that bad — it can’t be bad — it usually comes with whip cream and a cherry on top.

They — meaning the state sponsored media machine — is very adept at the language they use, how they use it, and how often they repeat it. It’s so effective, that 80% of Americans have no clue that the United States is insolvent and on the brink of bankruptcy, that nearly one in five Americans are out of work, and that the negative economic feedback loop is in full swing. And of those that do have a clue, the majority believe it’s a temporary misstep soon to be resolved by policies of borrow and spend.

by Anonymousreply 1108/24/2013

r9

Oh great, the libertarian troll is back. Every time you post, you prove that you are a moron and a liar.

Economic recovery is measured from the end of a recession, not the peak of the previous business cycle. The baseline is 2009, not 2007.

by Anonymousreply 1208/24/2013

We need more full-time jobs at least in my area.

by Anonymousreply 1308/24/2013

But, of course you know, the House GOP will be taking all the credit for this recovery.

by Anonymousreply 1508/25/2013

You've gotta love the people who scream "libertarian troll" the moment a poster backs up their claims with facts.

People are working either part time, or two jobs, or have stopped looking, thus the reason unemployment has gone down (the gov't fudges the numbers to make unemployment appear lower to begin with).

The country is in the shitter.

Nice puff piece though.

by Anonymousreply 1608/25/2013

Liberal talker Thom Hartmann predicts a "catastrophic" economic crash in 2016: "The facade of our once-great United States will soon disintegrate to reveal the rotting core where corporate and billionaire power and greed have replaced democratic infrastructure and governance."

He's a smart guy, so this makes me nervous.

by Anonymousreply 1708/25/2013

[quote]You've gotta love the people who scream "libertarian troll" the moment a poster backs up their claims with facts.

There's only one teensy problem with that: he didn't, and he never does. And he is, in fact, a libertarian troll, one who's been here for years posting the same tired, long-discredited crap, e.g., this:

[quote]80% of Americans have no clue that the United States is insolvent and on the brink of bankruptcy

Which is, of course, not only false, it's stupidly false.

by Anonymousreply 1808/25/2013

r17 Well, I'm glad we know there's gonna' be an orchestrated crash come 2016, wish we'd had the same few years warning for the 2008 debacle. Too bad it didn't work out that way, we could've prepared for it. Think it'll happen even if a Republican takes the White House?

by Anonymousreply 1908/25/2013

Ugh.

Anyone who understands Austrian economics knows that the business cycle (created by the boom-bust nature of the Federal Reserve) always starts to turn when money flows from capital investment to consumer goods.

This is NOT a good sign- just more proof that a major downturn is coming.

Fuck the Republicans- they are almost as bad as Democrats when it comes to economics.

by Anonymousreply 2108/25/2013

[quote]Anyone who understands Austrian economics knows that the business cycle (created by the boom-bust nature of the Federal Reserve)

Actually, the business cycle doesn't have a damn thing to do with the Federal Reserve, since they predated the existence of the Federal Reserve, as anyone who knows even a smidgen about economics and history is aware. Sadly, that lets you out.

by Anonymousreply 2208/25/2013

The oil companies scotched the recovery by dramatic price rises, despite the fact that oil supply is rising much faster than demand and prices should be crashing.

by Anonymousreply 2308/25/2013

Waitress: Morning!

Man: Well, what've you got?

Waitress: Well, there's egg and bacon; egg sausage and bacon; egg and spam; egg bacon and spam; egg bacon sausage and spam; spam bacon sausage and spam; spam egg spam spam bacon and spam; spam sausage spam spam bacon spam tomato and spam;

Vikings: Spam spam spam spam...

Waitress: ...spam spam spam egg and spam; spam spam spam spam spam spam baked beans spam spam spam...

Vikings: Spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam!

Waitress: ...or Lobster Thermidor a Crevette with a mornay sauce served in a Provencale manner with shallots and aubergines garnished with truffle pate, brandy and with a fried egg on top and spam.

Wife: Have you got anything without spam?

Waitress: Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.

Wife: I don't want ANY spam!

Man: Why can't she have egg bacon spam and sausage?

Wife: THAT'S got spam in it!

Man: Hasn't got as much spam in it as spam egg sausage and spam, has it?

Vikings: Spam spam spam spam... (Crescendo through next few lines...)

Wife: Could you do the egg bacon spam and sausage without the spam then?

Waitress: Urgghh!

Wife: What do you mean 'Urgghh'? I don't like spam!

Vikings: Lovely spam! Wonderful spam!

Waitress: Shut up!

Vikings: Lovely spam! Wonderful spam!

Waitress: Shut up! (Vikings stop) Bloody Vikings! You can't have egg bacon spam and sausage without the spam.

Wife: I don't like spam!

Man: Sshh, dear, don't cause a fuss. I'll have your spam. I love it. I'm having spam spam spam spam spam spam spam beaked beans spam spam spam and spam!

Vikings: Spam spam spam spam. Lovely spam! Wonderful spam!

Waitress: Shut up!! Baked beans are off.

Man: Well could I have her spam instead of the baked beans then?

Waitress: You mean spam spam spam spam spam spam... (but it is too late and the Vikings drown her words)

Vikings: (Singing elaborately...) Spam spam spam spam. Lovely spam! Wonderful spam! Spam spa-a-a-a-a-am spam spa-a-a-a-a-am spam. Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Spam spam spam spam!

by Anonymousreply 2408/25/2013

[block]Anyone who understands Austrian economics...

doesn't understand shit. austrian economics have as much to do with reality as believing that the great sky fairy is going to send homosexuals to hell.

by Anonymousreply 2508/25/2013

oops- i meant to type the quote thingy. guess i was wishing i could block the libertarian troll and i had a freudian slip. my apologies.

by Anonymousreply 2608/25/2013

R26-

Don't worry- one day reality will slap your dumb ass.

How a gay man (or woman) can argue against self-ownership and civil liberty baffles me.

by Anonymousreply 2708/25/2013

Waitress: Morning!

Man: Well, what've you got?

Waitress: Well, there's egg and bacon; egg sausage and bacon; egg and spam; egg bacon and spam; egg bacon sausage and spam; spam bacon sausage and spam; spam egg spam spam bacon and spam; spam sausage spam spam bacon spam tomato and spam;

Vikings: Spam spam spam spam...

Waitress: ...spam spam spam egg and spam; spam spam spam spam spam spam baked beans spam spam spam...

Vikings: Spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam!

Waitress: ...or Lobster Thermidor a Crevette with a mornay sauce served in a Provencale manner with shallots and aubergines garnished with truffle pate, brandy and with a fried egg on top and spam.

Wife: Have you got anything without spam?

Waitress: Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.

Wife: I don't want ANY spam!

Man: Why can't she have egg bacon spam and sausage?

Wife: THAT'S got spam in it!

Man: Hasn't got as much spam in it as spam egg sausage and spam, has it?

Vikings: Spam spam spam spam... (Crescendo through next few lines...)

Wife: Could you do the egg bacon spam and sausage without the spam then?

Waitress: Urgghh!

Wife: What do you mean 'Urgghh'? I don't like spam!

Vikings: Lovely spam! Wonderful spam!

Waitress: Shut up!

Vikings: Lovely spam! Wonderful spam!

Waitress: Shut up! (Vikings stop) Bloody Vikings! You can't have egg bacon spam and sausage without the spam.

Wife: I don't like spam!

Man: Sshh, dear, don't cause a fuss. I'll have your spam. I love it. I'm having spam spam spam spam spam spam spam beaked beans spam spam spam and spam!

Vikings: Spam spam spam spam. Lovely spam! Wonderful spam!

Waitress: Shut up!! Baked beans are off.

Man: Well could I have her spam instead of the baked beans then?

Waitress: You mean spam spam spam spam spam spam... (but it is too late and the Vikings drown her words)

Vikings: (Singing elaborately...) Spam spam spam spam. Lovely spam! Wonderful spam! Spam spa-a-a-a-a-am spam spa-a-a-a-a-am spam. Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Lovely spam! Spam spam spam spam!

by Anonymousreply 2808/25/2013

[quote]Don't worry- one day reality will slap your dumb ass.

Oh, I doubt it. It never has for you, despite years of being wrong.

[quote]How a gay man (or woman) can argue against self-ownership and civil liberty baffles me.

Do be sure to let us know when you find such an individual.

by Anonymousreply 2908/25/2013

R29-

You said the same bullshit in 2007 when I posted that the housing bubble was collapsing, and that the Federal Reserve and government policy were at fault.

You were wrong then, and you'll be proven wrong again.

How can someone be proven wrong over and over and still cling to their worship of government as god?

by Anonymousreply 3008/25/2013

[quote]Well, I'm glad we know there's gonna' be an orchestrated crash come 2016, wish we'd had the same few years warning for the 2008 debacle. Too bad it didn't work out that way, we could've prepared for it.

There were plenty of people warning of a coming collapse as early as 2003 as housing prices began to get overheated. I know because their posts scared me out of buying a house, and glad it did.

by Anonymousreply 3108/25/2013

Good, R31-

Those posters were laughed at by most people- the video of Peter Schiff warning of a housing collapse in 2007 and being mocked and laughed at by the panel of "experts" AND the host of the show is legendary.

Larry Summers lost billions for Harvard by ignoring the warnings. Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman expressed bewildered disbelief when the economy crashed.

With that kind of expertise, no wonder the world economy is getting worse by the day.

by Anonymousreply 3208/25/2013

Schiff being laughed at in late 2006 for predicting the subprime collapse and economic troubles.

Watch the video, and then decide who to trust- the Austrians or the Bernanke/Krugmanites.

by Anonymousreply 3308/25/2013

Yep! I used to be quite active on the Craigslist housing forum from '03-'07 or so, and my God was I attacked for believing there was a bubble. 'Bubbleheads' as we called them would FIERCELY deny that their precious real estate could ever go down in value and would resort to personal attacks and even stalking my Myspace page at the time. Hahahahahaaa...

by Anonymousreply 3408/25/2013

^ STOP POSTING THIS SHIT!

by Anonymousreply 3608/25/2013

Bullshit - the economy is fucking crap. These articles are laughable.

by Anonymousreply 3708/25/2013

[quote]You said the same bullshit in 2007 when I posted that the housing bubble was collapsing,

No, moron, I didn't, because *everyone* knew that the housing bubble was collapsing.

[quote]and that the Federal Reserve and government policy were at fault.

Well, that, yeah, since that statement is false, and stupidly so. The financial derivatives that nearly brought down the economy were *unregulated*, moron. Neither the Fed nor government policy were at fault there, except that both were asleep at the wheel.

[quote]You were wrong then, and you'll be proven wrong again.

Nope. Sorry. Despite years of posts, you have not been able to find a single error or single incorrect prediction in anything I've written here, and god knows, you've tried. You've had to make shit up and lie about my posts because you can't actually respond to what I write. It's been freaking hilarious watching you go through those contortions to try to save face!

[quote]How can someone be proven wrong over and over

Still waiting for you to find a single statement of mine that has been "proven wrong," much less that I've "proven wrong over and over." Go ahead. Find one. I'll be right here waiting. You can't, of course, but that won't stop you lying about it.

Now you, on the other hand... I can easily find, and have posted, literally dozens of your predictions that have been wrong. Over and over and over and over and over again... embarrassingly, stupidly wrong. It's really amazing that you are so wholly incapable of actually learning!

[quote]and still cling to their worship of government as god?

See what I mean about lying? You can't respond to what I actually write, so you have to pretend I've made statements that I've never made. Go ahead: find a single post of mine that demonstrates that I "worship government as god." I'll be right here waiting.

by Anonymousreply 3808/25/2013

[quote]Watch the video, and then decide who to trust- the Austrians or the Bernanke/Krugmanites.

Moron, Krugman also recognized that housing was in a bubble and that it would collapse. As for Schiff, let's take a look at *all* of his predictions, shall we? Notice how embarrassingly wrong he's been for all of these years? Just like you, in fact.

This is in stark contrast to people like Krugman who were not only correct about the housing bubble but were also mostly correct about the aftermath, unlike Schiff and unlike you.

So, sorry, moron, but I'll trust the people who have been mostly right instead of the idiots who have been mostly wrong.

by Anonymousreply 3908/25/2013

[quote]Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman expressed bewildered disbelief when the economy crashed.

And now you're simply lying again.

by Anonymousreply 4008/25/2013

R36-

I have given up on F&F. The same deranged fucktard posts this on any post that doesn't conform to her bizarre communist views.

by Anonymousreply 4108/25/2013

R37-

Yes, it is "fucking crap" and the fact that the government has bailed out the banks, printed trillions of dollars, created quadrillions of new regulations and taxes that help the top .01% while fucking the poor- well, the government worshiping fascists here don't care, as long as the government gets MORE power.

So, R37- please visit this website-

Economicpolicyjournal.Com

by Anonymousreply 4208/25/2013

R40-

Here is a video of Bernanke expressing how utterly shocked he was by the collapse of the housing bubble.

Are you too stupid to Google?

by Anonymousreply 4308/25/2013

R40-

Look at what the NYTimes says about Bernanke and his clueless incompetence.(@link)

Compare that to what Ron Paul, Lew Rockwell, Peter Schiff and other Austrians were saying about the housing bubble, and what they are saying about the impending stock market crash.

by Anonymousreply 4408/25/2013

Bernanke in 2005-

-----

July 2005

INTERVIEWER: Ben, there's been a lot of talk about a housing bubble, particularly, you know [inaudible] from all sorts of places. Can you give us your view as to whether or not there is a housing bubble out there?

BERNANKE: Well, unquestionably, housing prices are up quite a bit; I think it's important to note that fundamentals are also very strong. We've got a growing economy, jobs, incomes. We've got very low mortgage rates. We've got demographics supporting housing growth. We've got restricted supply in some places. So it's certainly understandable that prices would go up some. I don't know whether prices are exactly where they should be, but I think it's fair to say that much of what's happened is supported by the strength of the economy.

by Anonymousreply 4508/25/2013

Cont-

INTERVIEWER: Tell me, what is the worst-case scenario? Sir, we have so many economists coming on our air and saying, "Oh, this is a bubble, and it's going to burst, and this is going to be a real issue for the economy." Some say it could even cause a recession at some point. What is the worst-case scenario, if in fact we were to see prices come down substantially across the country?

BERNANKE: Well, I guess I don't buy your premise. It's a pretty unlikely possibility. We've never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So what I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize: might slow consumption spending a bit. I don't think it's going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.

by Anonymousreply 4608/25/2013

November 2006

BERNANKE: This scenario envisions that consumer spending, supported by rising incomes and the recent decline in energy prices, will continue to grow near its trend rate and that the drag on the economy from the [inaudible] housing sector will gradually diminish. The motor vehicles sector may already be showing signs of strengthening. After having cut production significantly in recent months, in response to the rise in inventory of unsold vehicles, automakers appear to have boosted the assembly rate a bit in November, and they have scheduled further increases for December. The effects of the housing correction on real economic activity are likely to persist into next year, as I've already noted. But the rate of decline in home construction should slow as the inventory of unsold new homes is gradually worked down.

by Anonymousreply 4708/25/2013

February 2007

BERNANKE: We expect moderate growth going forward. We believe that if the housing sector begins to stabilize, and if some of the inventory corrections still going on in manufacturing begin to be completed, that there's a reasonable possibility that we'll see some strengthening in the economy sometime during the middle of the new year.

Our assessment is that there's not much indication at this point that subprime mortgage issues have spread into the broader mortgage market, which still seems to be healthy. And the lending side of that still seems to be healthy.

by Anonymousreply 4808/25/2013

July 2007

BERNANKE: The pace of home sales seems likely to remain sluggish for a time, partly as a result of some tightening in lending standards, and the recent increase in mortgage interest rates. Sales should ultimately be supported by growth in income and employment, as well as by mortgage rates that, despite the recent increase, remain fairly low relative to historical norms. However, even if demand stabilizes as we expect, the pace of construction will probably fall somewhat further, as builders work down the stocks of unsold new homes. Thus, declines in residential construction will likely continue to weigh on economic growth in coming quarters, although the magnitude of the drag on growth should diminish over time. The global economy continues to be strong, supported by solid economic growth abroad. U.S. exports should expand further in coming quarters. Overall, the U.S. economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over the second half of 2007, with growth then strengthening a bit in 2008 to a rate close to the economy's underlying trend.

by Anonymousreply 4908/25/2013

There is no bubble, only froth.

by Anonymousreply 5008/25/2013

R39-

Please come back.

by Anonymousreply 5108/25/2013

[quote]I have given up on F&F.

Moron, if F&F worked, you'd have been banned a long time ago, given the average quality of your posts here.

[quote]The same deranged fucktard posts this on any post that doesn't conform to her bizarre communist views.

Wow.... talk about projection.

by Anonymousreply 5208/25/2013

[quote]Compare that to what Ron Paul, Lew Rockwell, Peter Schiff and other Austrians were saying about the housing bubble, and what they are saying about the impending stock market crash.

Oh, you mean the guys who have been consistently and totally wrong for the past 30 years or more? Schiff we've already dealt with; his predictions have not only been wrong; they've been pretty stupid. Tell me, are you too stupid to Google?

I'll pick Krugman, thanks.

by Anonymousreply 5308/25/2013

I'm so glad the economy is in much better shape!

When is the Federal Reserve going to end the $85B/mo purchases of mortgages and US Government Treasury Bonds? Since the economy is so great, they should stop giving money to Wall Street!

by Anonymousreply 5410/03/2013
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