Nate Silver shows significant turn toward Romey after the debate
Odds had been 87/13 in favor of Obama. They have moved to 78.4/21.6
[quote]More broadly, although it is clear that Mr. Romney has made gains, it is still too early to tell how long-lasting they might be. Many of the polls that showed the sharpest swing toward Mr. Romney were conducted on Thursday, immediately after the debate and on a very unfavorable day of news coverage for Mr. Obama, and will not yet reflect any change in voter sentiment from Friday morning’s favorable jobs report.
|by Anonymous||reply 18||10/10/2012|
This will swing back. Romney had his first good day in the campaign since clinching the nomination the same day as Obama's least focused. Rmoney muddied his own success by bringing up the 47% debacle, when he should have stayed shut. Obama will go hard core negative, and just attack Romney for that and his many inconsistencies for the next two debates. I think Romney will get shrill and flustered. Let's see.
|by Anonymous||reply 1||10/07/2012|
Romney gave Obama plenty of ammo in the debate.
|by Anonymous||reply 2||10/07/2012|
Hopefully it will be Obama in November, but it's stil very discouraging even thinking about the large number of people who will vote for Romney.
|by Anonymous||reply 3||10/07/2012|
This just goes to show that we should not become over-confident. This thing is far from over. And things--as we can see--can turn against Obama very easily particularly if shows up to a debate as unprepared and disengaged as he did last week. Obama's performance was a disgrace. He fucking stood there taking notes. Why the hell for?!!
And while Obama may come on stronger in the next debate. Romney is going to the same. He's not going to sit back and let Obama walk all over him. Romney is a fucking liar, but many people buy his shit.
Obama better come to win in everything he does for the next 30 days. Otherwise, he's going to lose.
|by Anonymous||reply 4||10/08/2012|
No matter how strongly Romney tries to come at Obama again, his lies are going to bite him in the ass and I bet when Obama was looking "disengaged", he was taking down everything Mittens said and will hit him with it in the next debate.
|by Anonymous||reply 5||10/08/2012|
R5, there's no reason he shouldn't have done that last week. Mittens was lying his ass off over and over and Obama never called him out on it once.
I was REALLY disappointed he let that liar get away with it all and roll over him like that. He seemed disengaged and like he was a one on one high end discussion with Jim Lehrer, while Mitt went for the jugular and stomped over both.
Obama better step it up. BIG TIME. Or his decision to not fight with Mitt will go down as this election's game changer.
|by Anonymous||reply 6||10/08/2012|
Here's why he didn't do it R6:
[quote]Norah O’Donnell asked Axelrod why the president was not making the charge that Romney was being dishonest during the debate, instead sending his surrogates out to level that charge after the debate.
[quote]“I’ll be honest with you. I think he was a little taken aback at the brazenness with which Gov. Romney walked away from so many of the positions on which he’s run – walked away from his record,” said Axelrod. “As President Clinton would say, it takes a certain brass to do what Gov. Romney did there.”
[quote]Asked if Obama simply did not do his homework before the debate, Axelrod said that Obama did study for the debate, but he was up against a performance artist who rendered moot any firsthand knowledge of the facts. “Homework entails internalizing facts. Gov. Romney was about the business of distorting them,” Axelrod replied.
|by Anonymous||reply 7||10/08/2012|
Romney is a liar, but that's not the problem. He may not be mischaracterizing or lying about his positions as much as he's abandoned them.
Romney's moved suddenly toward the center. We really don't know if he is lying now, or was lying back when he was a severe conservative towing the tea party line.
May swing voters and disappointed Obama voters are just starting to pay attention, and the version of Romney that appeared last week was a version that can win. A centrist pragmatist that most people who have followed his career believe is actually MORE genuine than what we saw in the primaries.
This Romney can pull away the most disappointed parts of Obama's support.
He better fuck up again.
|by Anonymous||reply 8||10/08/2012|
And yet Romney still only has a barely 20% chance of winning Concern Troll.
|by Anonymous||reply 9||10/08/2012|
And then there's THIS reality check.
[bold]Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling[/bold] By NATE SILVER
Mitt Romney remains in a considerably stronger polling position than he was before last Wednesday’s debate in Denver. [bold]But the polls released on Sunday did not tell quite as optimistic a story for him as those in the debate’s immediate aftermath.[/bold]
|by Anonymous||reply 10||10/08/2012|
Yet Silver's odds are now 75/25
|by Anonymous||reply 11||10/08/2012|
How could anyone currently support the GOP knowing full-well they want there to be another terrorist attack in this country just to win?
Treacherous right-wing filth.
|by Anonymous||reply 12||10/08/2012|
We were ahead by about a touchdown before the debate. Then Romney got a field goal. We're still winning, but it's closer.
|by Anonymous||reply 13||10/08/2012|
Online betting odds are a better indicator.
|by Anonymous||reply 14||10/08/2012|
R14 no they are not. Markets can be wrong,
|by Anonymous||reply 15||10/08/2012|
Andrew Sullivan is in full meltdown mode. Such a drama queen and I think he's just trying to drive traffic to his increasingly windy blog.
|by Anonymous||reply 16||10/08/2012|
Oh gee, a twenty-five percent chance of winning.
This is likely the high point for Romney, so I hope he enjoys it.
|by Anonymous||reply 17||10/08/2012|
The issue is the TREND. Today it's a 29% chance.
|by Anonymous||reply 18||10/10/2012|