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POLL THREAD ~ 5 Weeks to Go ~ OCTOBER 1 - 7




Gallup Tracking [Obama +4]

Obama - 49

Romney - 45


Rasmussen Trackingt [Obama +3]

Obama - 50

Romney - 47


CNN/Opinion Research [Obama +3]

Obama - 50

Romney - 47t

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25710/08/2012

I love you Poll Troll! do the Senate...

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 110/01/2012

For a moment I was wondering if you had been banned.

The original thread with this title had over a hundred replies.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 210/01/2012

I just can't trust any poll thread unless it's the 2012 Poll Troll's.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 310/01/2012

Not sure what happened to the original thread, R2. It was fine when I posted new polls on it this morning.

Thanks, R1 & R3.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 410/01/2012

ABC News/Wash Post [Obama +2]

Obama - 49

Romney - 47


Politico/GWU/Battleground [Obama +2]

Obama - 49

Romney - 47

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 510/01/2012

thanks for persisting, op.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 610/01/2012



Warren (D) - 49

Brown (R) - 45




Obama - 60

Romney - 32

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 710/01/2012

Didn't Obama have a bigger lead last week?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 810/01/2012

oh noes! r8!!! whatever will we do????

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 910/01/2012



Obama - 52

Romney - 40




Obama - 48

Romney - 44

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1010/01/2012



Obama -49

Romney - 46




Obama - 51

Romney - 41

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1110/01/2012



Obama - 52

Romney - 37

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1210/01/2012

Bless you, Poll Troll.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1310/01/2012



Obama - 54

Romney - 39


[quote]Poll: Obama has 15-point lead over Romney in New Hampshire

President Obama leads Mitt Romney in New Hampshire by a 15-point margin, according to a new poll.

The WMUR-University of New Hampshire poll released Monday found Obama leading Romney in the Granite state 52 percent to 37 percent among likely voters. The survey found that 9 percent of likely New Hampshire voters are undecided.

A majority of likely New Hampshire voters have a favorable opinion on Obama, according to the poll. The poll found 56 percent of likely voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Obama while 40 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

The poll also found more New Hampshire voters have an unfavorable view of Romney than they do a favorable view. Thirty-nine percent said they have a favorable opinion of Romney while 54 percent said they have a unfavorable opinion of him.

On running mates, the poll had good news for the Obama-Biden ticket as well. Almost half (49 percent) of New Hampshire voters surveyed said they have a favorable view of Vice President Joe Biden while 40 have an unfavorable view. For Paul Ryan, Romney's running mate, 34 said they have a favorable view of him while 47 percent said they have an unfavorable view.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1410/01/2012

[quote]Didn't Obama have a bigger lead last week?

Yes, his National polling numbers have leveled off in some of the polls over the weekend, but that may just be because the Convention bump & the reaction to Romney's 47% comments are subsiding.

The swing-state polling is what matters, and Obama is ahead in almost all of those.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1510/01/2012

Poll Troll, which poll do you trust the most?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1610/01/2012

Poll Troll: As long as you're posting poll results as you have above, we welcome you back! If things start to reverse, then I'll just have to act like a Repug and denounce all poll as wrong ("The only poll that matters is the one on election day").

Poll Troll, you're a regular little Nate Silver. Thanks for all your hard work.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1710/01/2012

"If we don't run Chris Chritie, Romney will be the nominee and we'll lose."

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1810/01/2012

HAWAII - SENATE [Hirono +16]

Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG

Hirono (D) - 55

Lingle (R) - 39


[quote]Hirono Up Big On Lingle

Mazie Hirono has a double-digit lead over Linda Lingle in the first independent survey of the U.S. Senate race since the August primary election.

The Civil Beat Poll shows Hirono, a Democratic congresswoman, with a 55 percent to 39 percent advantage over the two-term Republican Hawaii governor. The survey of 1,684 likely general election voters was conducted between Sept. 26 and Sept. 28.1 The poll's margin of error is 2.4 percent. Six percent said they were undecided.

The poll also digs into education issues like furlough Fridays and the ongoing teacher contract dispute. It finds Hirono's lead was built largely with support from voters who don't have kids in Hawaii's public school system.

Of the third of respondents who said they have children who are either in Hawaii public schools or attended public schools within the last 10 years, Hirono's lead is only 48 percent to 45 percent — a statistical tie among that subset. But among the likely voters with no kids in school now or recently, Hirono's advantage balloons to 59 percent to 36 percent.

The poll also shows Hirono had strong support among voters who say they have positive feelings about the national economy, 78 percent to 17 percent, while Lingle dominated among those who are pessimistic about the economy, 72 percent to 25 percent.

That makes sense considering Democrats supporting Hirono are likely backing President Barack Obama, who's touted economic strides. Later this week, Civil Beat will release independent polling numbers for the presidential race in Hawaii.

Hirono leads by varying degrees among both men and women; among all age brackets; among all income brackets; among voters at all education levels; and among every ethnic groups except those identifying themselves as Chinese, where Lingle leads 44-43.

The 16-point overall lead is an increase from Civil Beat's pre-primary-election polls, when hypothetical matchups between Lingle and both Hirono and Ed Case were surveyed. Hirono led Lingle 46-39 in January and 49-44 in June, with the more moderate Case holding larger leads over Lingle in both instances. Hirono's lead over Lingle is in line with other polls that have always shown Hirono ahead.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 1910/01/2012

OHIO - SENATE [Brown +10]

Columbus Dispatch

Brown (D) - 49

Mandel (R) - 39t


[quote]Incumbent Democrat leading in almost all demographic sectors

Ohio’s U.S. Senate race has gone from a dead heat to a double-digit lead for incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown in the Dispatch Poll.

The first-term senator is topping Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel 49 percent to 39 percent. The two were tied at 44 percent in the first Dispatch Poll, published on Aug. 26.

The rapid transformation in the Senate contest parallels that of the presidential race in Ohio, which went from deadlocked in the first survey to a 9-point margin for President Barack Obama. Both changes were fueled by a larger proportion of Democrats in the current poll who say they will vote.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2010/01/2012

Love Poll Troll too!!!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2110/01/2012

NEW MEXICO - SENATE [Heinrich +13]

Rasmussen Reports

Heinrich (D) - 52

Wilson (R) - 39


Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich has extended his lead over former Congresswoman Heather Wilson in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely New Mexico Voters support Heinrich, while Wilson receives 39% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefers some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2210/01/2012

NEW MEXICO - SENATE [Heinrich +11]


Heinrich (D) - 52

Wilson (R) - 41t


While some thought New Mexico would be in play this fall (George W. Bush barely won here in 2004), the Land of Enchantment is clearly leaning left in the presidential and Senate race (Democrat Martin Heinrich vs. Republican Heather Wilson) this year

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2310/01/2012

I think Martin Heinrich can beat that old hag Heather Wilson by a good 20 points!

As for Sherrod Brown, he faces a weasel for a Republican challeger -- double-digit lead there, too.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2410/01/2012

[quote]Romney Fades, Taking GOP Senate Hopes With Him (CHART)

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2510/01/2012

Latino Decisions [Obama +52]

Obama - 73

Romney - 21


[quote]Poll: Obama's lead with Latinos jumping to historic high

10/01/12 05:35 PM ET

President Obama holds a 73-21 percent lead over Mitt Romney among Latino voters, a new high-water mark for the president.

The new 52-point margin represents a high watermark for Obama in the weekly tracking poll from Latino Decisions, and is a significant jump from the 65-26 percent advantage he held six weeks ago.

Romney has failed to make inroads despite a push at the GOP convention to highlight Hispanic Republicans, while Latino voters who have tuned in during the period shortly before and since the conventions have mostly gravitated towards Obama.

Obama is polling a higher percentage in the poll than the 67 percent of the Latino vote he won four years ago, when GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won 31 percent, according to exit polls.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2610/01/2012




Quinnipiac [Obama +4]

Obama - 49

Romney - 45


[quote]Women Give Obama An Edge Over Romney, Likely Voters Pick President To Win Debate 2-1

An 18 point lead among women puts President Barack Obama ahead of Gov. Mitt Romney 49 - 45 percent among likely voters nationwide, and voters expect 54 - 28 percent that the president will win the debates, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

The president leads 56 - 38 percent among women and 94 - 2 percent among black voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men back Romney 52 - 42 percent while white voters back the Republican 53 - 42 percent.

Independent voters are divided with 47 percent for Romney and 45 percent for Obama.

American likely voters say 60 - 25 percent that the federal government would make progress addressing the nation's problems if one party controls the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Voters dislike the Democratic Party less than they dislike the Republican Party, giving the Democrats a negative 45 - 49 percent favorability rating, compared to a negative 41 - 52 percent for the Republicans.

"President Barack Obama won only about 43 percent of the white vote in 2008, so his current standing among whites tracks his earlier winning performance," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "If the president can match or exceed his 2008 showing among whites it will be difficult to impossible for Romney to win.

"It is also very difficult to win an election when you are getting shellacked among women, the group that makes up about half the electorate."

"Historically, voters have preferred divided government in the belief that one side can keep the other in line, but these numbers may indicate that the public is fed up with gridlock in Washington," said Brown.

The economy is the most important issue in this election, 50 percent of American likely voters say, while 17 percent list health care, followed by 13 percent who cite the budget deficit and 7 percent who point to national security.

The candidates are even on who would do a better job on the economy, with 48 percent of voters betting on Obama and 47 percent picking Romney.

Romney would do a better job on the budget deficit, voters say 52 - 42 percent.

Obama leads on every other issue: 50 - 45 percent on health care, 50 - 44 percent on national security, 52 - 43 percent on handling an international crisis.

If they or a family member were at risk of violence in a foreign country, American likely voters say 50 - 45 percent they would want Obama in the White House.

"Some critical keys to the president's lead are that Romney has not convinced voters that he would do a better job on the economy," Brown said. "Romney is more trusted to address the budget deficit, but Obama is the choice to handle other major problems - and the go-to guy if you or a family member is in danger overseas."

Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 60 - 38 percent. Romney doesn't care, voters say 51 - 46 percent.

Among likely voters, 93 percent say they plan to watch the presidential debates, but 86 percent say they do not expect the candidates to say anything that would change their mind.

"Voters clearly are interested in the debates but skeptical that the events will make them reconsider their voting preference," said Brown.

"The best news for Romney going into the debates is that voters have very low expectations for him and therefore the bar for him to change some minds is set lower than it is for the president."

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2710/02/2012

How the fuck do so many of my compatriots support Romney after everything he's said and done, the clear evidence that he stands for nothing except getting elected and his sheer contempt for half the American people?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2810/02/2012

It's just a reality of the 2-party system, R28.

Because there are only 2 political parties in America, they are both going to be guaranteed a large chunk of the vote in each election, particularly when the country is polarized into hardcore regions for each party that guarantee them certain states (eg. Utah, Oklahoma, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi etc.) are going to keep on voting Republican even if the nominee is a member of the KKK.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 2910/02/2012


Rasmussen Reports

Obama - 51

Romney - 40


President Obama still has a double-digit lead in New Mexico.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Mexico Voters finds the president with 51% support to Mitt Romney’s 40%. Six percent (6%) like another candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3010/02/2012

I'm glad to see a majority now want one party to win. I'm hoping the Democrats can do it (although I know it's still a long shot). An infrastructure-jobs bill and increasing the tax for the rich would go a long way in this country's recovery.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3110/02/2012



Obama - 53

Romney - 42




Berkley (D) - 45

Heller (R) - 45

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3210/02/2012



Romney - 48

Obama - 45


MISSOURI - SENATE [McCaskill +1]


McCaskill (D) - 46

Aiken (R) - 45

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3310/02/2012

Rasmussen Tracking [Obama +1]

Obama - 48

Romney - 47

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3410/02/2012

It's starting to look like a


by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3510/02/2012

Any info on Mitt Romney is nationally polling with Whites?

I'm serious, because Barack Obama's percentage with them, in 2008, was 43%.

Mitt Romney would have to be shifting the White vote (male and female) to a point of reducing Obama to the mid- to upper-30s Obama to get re-elected by 3 percentage points or less.

Obama beat John McCain, in 2008, by +7.26.

The Latinos are shifting further Democratic in these polls. Obama won them nationally by +36. Two sources had him up by +42 and then +45. One new one has over +50.

The Asian vote -- are they shifted Republican? Don't think so.

Looking at the age demographics -- the 65+ were polled a week or two ago shifting for re-electing Obama. (They were the only voting-age group in the column for McCain, by 8 points.) The 45 to 64 group, won by Obama by +1, were shifting five or six additional points for the president. Don't know about the 30 to 44 and, even younger, the 18 to 29 groups -- but if the other two are shifting for Obama, I don't these two are going in the directon of Romney.

I really want to know the national polls for White voters. Because they would explain these +3 (or less) for Obama.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3610/02/2012

R36, according to today's Quinnipiac poll posted above, Obama is at 42% with white voters, so he's basically at the same level he was at in 2008.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3710/02/2012

Gallup Tracking [Obama +6]

Obama - 50

Romney - 44t

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3810/02/2012


Roanoke College

Obama - 48

Romney - 40



Roanoke College

Kaine (D) - 47

Allen (R) - 37


[quote]Roanoke College Poll: Obama opens significant lead over Romney; Kaine outpolls Allen in Senate race

President Barack Obama has opened an 8-point lead (47% - 39%) over Mitt Romney in Virginia, according to The Roanoke College Poll, as the two candidates head into the first presidential debate. Democrat Tim Kaine enjoys a 10-point margin (47% - 37%) over Republican George Allen in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia.

Sources of support

Obama holds his base, leading among women (51% - 34%), Democrats (94% - 1%), Liberals (83% - 8%), and younger voters 18-34 years old (62% - 20%). Romney is statistically tied among men (leading 45% - 42%, within the margin of error), but holds comfortable margins among Republicans (88% - 2%), Conservatives (75% - 15%), and those 65 or older (47% - 40%).

Romney leads among those who self-identify as Independents (45% - 32%), but Obama holds a commanding lead among self-described political moderates (56% - 26%), a group that now equals or exceeds conservatives in size in Virginia. More than half of Independents (52%) think of themselves as Moderate, while 34 percent are Conservative, and 9 percent are Liberal. A plurality of Moderates (38%) are Democrats, while slightly fewer (36%) are Independents, and only 17 percent are Conservatives. This helps to explain why Obama leads among Moderates but trails among Independents.

Three-fourths (74%) of Obama supporters say their vote is a vote for him rather than a vote against Romney (15%). More than one-third of Romney supporters (34%) say their vote is a vote against Obama, and less than half (48%) say their vote is a vote for Romney.

A voter's choice in 2008 is predictive of their 2012 choice. Fully 84 percent of those who voted for Obama in 2008 said they will vote for him in 2012 while 85 percent of John McCain supporters plan to vote for Romney. Only 4 percent in each group plan to switch their vote to the other party.

Virginia's Race for the U.S. Senate

In the matchup of former governors, Kaine leads among women (52% - 30%), and he is statistically tied among men, trailing Allen by only 4 percent (45% - 41%). The candidates are also statistically tied among White voters (Allen leads 43% - 40%), but Kaine has a very large lead among Black voters (77% - 7%). Kaine leads with Moderates (57% - 25%), but Allen leads among Independents (46% - 39%). Kaine holds leads in every region of the state except the Shenandoah Valley, which is statistically tied.

There are still a relatively large number of undecided voters in this race (17%), particularly when compared to the presidential contest.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 3910/02/2012


Baltimore Sun

Obama - 57

Romney - 34


[quote]Poll finds support for same-sex marriage, but not gambling

Five weeks before the election, a measure to legalize same-sex marriage in Maryland has seen a surge of support and is now favored by likely voters, 49 percent to 39 percent, a new Baltimore Sun poll has found.

But at this stage, most voters are opposed to the gambling expansion law, according to the poll. And the electorate is conflicted about a measure to give illegal immigrants more access to higher education, with similar percentages supporting the law and opposing it.

The outcome of all three referendums will be decided by a Maryland electorate in which the majority Democrats are expected to turn out in large numbers to support President Barack Obama. He leads Republican Mitt Romney among state voters, 57 percent to 34 percent.

A big Democratic turnout could help supporters of the gay marriage and tuition initiatives, according to pollster Steve Raabe. But the highly volatile gambling issue isn't likely to break along party lines.

"There's tremendous money being spent by both sides on political advertising, and the messages in those ads are provocative," said Raabe, president of OpinionWorks, an Annapolis-based research firm that conducted the poll. "Given that, this question could still move dramatically between now and election day."

The telephone survey of 804 likely voters was conducted Sept. 25 to 27. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

Voter turnout in Maryland is expected to be driven by the presidential election and include a high percentage of African-Americans. The poll assumes that 23 percent of state voters will be African-American, closely mirroring 2008, when blacks accounted for 25 percent of the Maryland vote.

A high black turnout was a prospect once viewed with trepidation by proponents of same-sex marriage. In March, an OpinionWorks poll found less than a third of African-Americans supported the measure.

Since then, however, there's been a dramatic shift in the attitudes of black voters, according to the new Sun poll. It found more than half of likely black voters favor legalizing same-sex marriage, compared with a quarter who are opposed.

That helps to explain the turnabout in statewide attitudes since then. In March, the OpinionWorks poll found 43 percent of likely voters opposed and only 40 percent in favor.

Raabe noted that since March, President Obama has voiced his support for the issue, and the Democratic Party included it for the first time in its platform. Other high-profile African-Americans also have been vocal in their support, including Ravens linebacker Brendon Ayanbadejo, the Rev. Al Sharpton and the national board of the NAACP.

Delores N. Jenkins, an 81-year-old African-American resident of Baltimore, said she is among those who will vote to give gays and lesbians the right to marry. "They pay taxes like anybody else," she said. "They should have the right to pick their own partners. No one should tell them who they should or shouldn't be with."

The 10-point margin of support for same-sex marriage indicates a profound shift. Same-sex marriage supporters have lost in all 32 states where the issue has been put to voters. This fall, measures to legalize gay marriage are also on the ballot in Maine and Washington state, and there's a fourth voter initiative to ban gay marriage in Minnesota.

While the poll results may be encouraging for Maryland's same-sex marriage proponents, Rabbe cautioned that it's unclear whether the support will hold once opponents launch an expected media blitz.

"We don't know how strong it is," said Raabe. He said he could envision a successful effort to bring more black voters back into the 'no' column. "For opponents, you'd want to be in the African-American community messaging hard," he said.

Raabe noted that the largest pool of undecided voters is in Baltimore City where 21 percent don't have an opinion on the issue.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4010/02/2012

Interesting that Obama went up in Gallup. I guess Repubs are hoping the debates shakes things up at this point, or the Libya thing blows up as an alleged "scandal."

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4110/02/2012

RHODE ISLAND - SENATE [Whitehouse +26]


Whitehouse (D) - 56

Hinckley (R) - 30




Cicilline (D) - 44

Doherty (R) - 38t

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4210/02/2012

The republicans are counting on the debates to shift polling numbers. But that's just not going to happen. Personality wins debates and Mitt just doesn't have it.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4310/02/2012

SurveyUSA from 09/29/2012 to 10/01/2012 tBarack Obama (D) t2.0 t49.0 t tMitt Romney (R) tt47.0 t

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4410/02/2012

President Obama has a small lead over Republican candidate Mitt Romney in North Carolina, one of the most hotly contested states in the presidential election, according to a new poll. Obama gets 49 percent of likely voters to Romney's 47 percent in numbers from pollster SurveyUSA and commissioned by TV station WRAL. From their report:

As in 2008, Democrats hold a sizable edge among early voters, but the GOP is making a concerted effort not to fall too far behind before Election Day. Conservative groups have pushed for absentee votes and plan get-out-the-vote efforts once early voting starts in a couple of weeks.

According to the poll, Obama has a 20-point lead among people who plan to cast early ballots. They accounted for 43 percent of those surveyed. Romney holds a 53 to 41 percent lead among those planning to vote on Election Day – 48 percent of those surveyed – and a 58 to 39 percent lead among the small number of people who will cast absentee ballots.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4510/02/2012

OHIO - SENATE [Brown +8]

Public Policy Polling

Brown (D) - 49

Mandel (R) - 41t


[quote]Brown Remains Ahead of Mandel in Ohio

Raleigh, N.C. – Democrat Sherrod Brown remains ahead of Republican Josh Mandel for Ohio’s US Senate race. Brown continues to lead Mandel by 8 points (49-41), a survey conducted over the weekend found. Compared to a survey earlier in September, Brown still leads by 8 points, yet both candidates have gained one point over in their favor over the past few weeks.

“Sherrod Brown is holding steady with a high single digit lead in the Ohio Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He continues to run several points ahead of President Obama so unless there’s a major shift over the last five weeks in the Presidential race he should be in pretty good shape.”

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4610/02/2012

I love you, Poll Troll, don't ever leave us.

So who is "We Ask America" when they're at home? I've heard of all of the polling outfits except that one.

Here are some photos of your hot bf, PT.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4710/02/2012

We Ask America has been around for a while, R47, but I'm not sure of their exact polling history. They seem to be more or less in the ballpark this year.

Yes, here is a photo of Martin Heinrich with President Obama.

Heinrich is replacing retiring U.S. Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4810/02/2012



Obama - 57

Romney - 33


In addition, the new survey of 501 likely voters in Rhode Island shows Democrat Barack Obama far ahead of Republican Mitt Romney in the presidential race, with Obama at 57%, Romney at 33% and 7% of voters undecided. Four years ago Obama defeated John McCain 63% to 35% in heavily Democratic Rhode Island.

Obama is winning 93% of Democrats, while Romney is winning 85% of Republicans. The two candidates are tied at 42% among independents, with 14% undecided. Romney is getting 39% of the vote in the 2nd Congressional District but just 27% in the 1st District.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 4910/02/2012

Another photo of Martin Heinrich:

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5010/02/2012



Hassan (D) - 42

Lamontagne (R) - 40



DURHAM, NH – The race to succeed New Hampshire Governor John Lynch in New Hampshire is very close between Republican Ovide Lamontagne and Democrat Maggie Hassan. Neither candidate is well known to voters.

These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Six hundred and thirty-eight (638) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between September 27 and September 30, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.9 percent.

Included is a subsample of 600 likely general election voters (margin of sampling error +/- 4.0%).

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5110/02/2012

Poll Troll, you're fabulous and your online bf is hot but that name - Martin Heinrich. It's just so Nazi-fied. Can't he change it?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5210/02/2012



Obama - 46

Romney - 43t


FLORIDA - SENATE [Nelson +6]


Nelson (D) - 40

Mack (R) - 34


9/27 - 9/30t

600 LV

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5310/02/2012

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl [Obama +3]

Obama - 49

Romney - 46


[quote]NBC/WSJ poll: Obama maintains lead, but Romney within striking distance

On the eve of the first presidential debate, President Barack Obama maintains his national lead over Mitt Romney, but the Republican nominee is well within striking distance, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama edges Romney by three points among likely voters, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. Obama’s lead was five points, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the NBC/WSJ poll released two weeks ago, following the political conventions.

But among a wider pool of registered voters, the president is ahead of Romney by seven points, 51 percent to 44 percent.

Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, argues that the poll results contain good news for both candidates.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5410/02/2012

Are all the hot politicians named Martin? O'Malley's quite a handsome man. I'd say he's gotten better with age.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5510/02/2012

I'm certainly no expert, but it seems to me that Brown gave Warren her "47 Percent" statement when he selected Scalia as his favorite SC justice ( or his "role model" justice, or whatever) - that can't play well in Mass., can it?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5610/02/2012

No he was heartily booed. There's a thread from last night about it.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5710/02/2012





Obama - 51

Romney -43t




Obama - 48

Romney - 46




Obama - 47

Romney - 46t


[quote]NBC/WSJ poll: Obama holds lead in Ohio; statistical tie in Va., Fla.

As President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney prepare to square off for their first debate Wednesday night, the Democratic incumbent maintains a significant lead in one key battleground state while the contests in two others have tightened, according to a new round of NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal polls.

In Ohio, Obama holds a 51 percent to 43 percent lead among likely voters, which is relatively unchanged from his 50 percent to 43 percent lead three weeks ago.

In Florida and Virginia, Obama and Romney are statistically tied, with the Democrat clinging to a slight edge. In Florida, Obama leads 47 percent to 46 percent, down from 49 percent to 45 percent in mid-September. And in Virginia, Obama is up 48 percent to 46 percent. Last month, Obama led 49 percent to 45 percent in the Old Dominion state.

"The polling in September was right after the conventions," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. He added, "We may be seeing a dissipation in some of that post-convention bounce that enjoyed."

Miringoff also noted, "Things have returned in Florida and Virginia to the kind of closeness we've been seeing earlier in the campaign. Not so in Ohio."

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5810/03/2012

OHIO - SENATE [Brown +9]


Brown (D) - 50

Mandel (R) - 41t




Kaine (D) - 49

Allen (R) - 44t


FLORIDA - SENATE [Nelson +11]


Nelson (D) - 52

Mack (R) - 41


In the hotly contested Virginia Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican George Allen, 49 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. Last month, Kaine and Allen were tied, 46 percent to 46 percent.

In Ohio, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to lead Republican challenger Josh Mandel. Brown holds a 50 percent to 41 percent lead, which is slightly expanded from where the race was last month. Brown then led 49 percent to 42 percent.

In Florida, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson holds a 52 percent to 41 percent lead over Republican challenger Connie Mack. Last month, Nelson's lead was a slightly wider 14 points.t

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 5910/03/2012

National Public Radio [Obama +7]

Obama - 51

Romney - 44


[quote] President Obama with a 7-point lead among likely voters nationally.

The latest poll by NPR and its bipartisan polling team shows President Obama with a 7-point lead among likely voters nationally and a nearly identical lead of 6 points in the dozen battleground states where both campaigns are spending most of their time and money.

But the poll also finds former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney very much within striking distance of the incumbent as the two men begin a series of three debates Wednesday in Denver. More than 80 percent of respondents said they planned to watch the first televised clash Wednesday and one in four said the debate could influence their vote.

The poll found 51 percent of the likely voters planning on or leaning toward a vote for the president, with 44 percent voting for or leaning toward his challenger. In the battleground subsample, the numbers were 50 percent Obama and 44 percent Romney. Those numbers were slightly better for the president than his job approval rating in the poll. Nationally, the president was at 50 percent approval (46 percent disapproval), but in the battleground he was at 48 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval.

Battleground voters were also more downbeat about the direction of the country. Asked whether things were generally going in the right direction or "pretty seriously off on the wrong track," 59 percent in the battleground said wrong track and just 36 percent said right direction. That gap of 23 points was only 16 points on the same question in the national sample.

The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted over the final five days of September by Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps and Whit Ayres of Resurgent Republic. About a third of those polled live in the 12 states considered in play for the Nov. 6 election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Ayres, the Republican half of the team, noted that the actual electorate in November may not have as many Democrats as this NPR poll's likely voter sample, which he called "a best-case scenario" for the president's party.

"When you sample voters over time, you inevitably get varying proportions of Democrats and Republicans in the sample. It's nothing nefarious, just the vagaries of sampling," Ayres said. "This sample ended up with seven points more Democrats than Republicans. In 2008, there were seven points more Democrats than Republicans in the electorate, according to exit polls. But in 2004, there were equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans."

If this year's voters were to split evenly again between the two major parties, Romney would have an advantage. The NPR poll found him a 4-point favorite among independents.

Most observers expect this year's party ratio to be somewhere between the Democratic tilt of 2008 and the even split of 2004 (which recurred in the midterm elections of 2010). Greenberg, the Democratic member of the polling team, said polling this year has generally found fewer people self-identifying with the GOP.

"They're moving into the independent category," Greenberg said, "where also if you look at the brand position of the Republican Party and Democratic Party, the Republican Party favorability has been dropping throughout this whole period."

But while the ranks of independents are growing, that does not imply a large number of undecided voters with five weeks left to Election Day. The pollsters found only 2 percent calling themselves undecided. Moreover, only 11 percent of the president's supporters and 15 percent of Romney's said they might still change their minds.

"We have a very polarized electorate where people go to their tribal corners and fight it out," Ayres said. "But in an election this close, even a point or two could make a difference."

The poll indicates that the Republican challenger has a tall order to fill Wednesday night and in the remaining weeks, as he has fallen behind on issues such as taxes, t

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6010/03/2012

(a 7-point lead is "within striking distance"?)

Maybe with an ICBM.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6110/03/2012

I noticed that wording too, R61. I think journalists use expressions like that in order to make the race sound more exciting.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6210/03/2012

I absolutely agree 2012PT @ r62.

Which is why a Rasmussen Obama+1 is looking like a landslide.

If the races were so close Rove would not have shifted his money to the secondary Senate races.

Obama will be President.

The big question is will he have a Democratic Congress or will we have another 2 years of gridlock?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6310/03/2012

Well, according to Nate Silver, Obama has about an 85% chance of winning right now, R63, and the majority of the other projection models agree.

However, I don't believe in making definite predictions because I think it's unwise to be overconfident. You never know what can happen where the Republicans are concerned. They are very devious.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6410/03/2012

Generic Congressional Vote [Democrats +3]

National Public Radio

Democrats - 48

Republicans - 45

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6510/03/2012

They were talking on Morning Joe this morning about the possibility of Romney pulling out of OHIO and putting those resources in other swing states where the race is much closer like FL, VA, CO, NV, and NC. The problem though is if Romney concedes OH, Obama is going to pull out too.

Still early, but I'm increasingly confident that we're going to get OH and IA, especially with the amazing groundwork that the campaign is doing with early voting. The numbers in NH look very promising as well. If he holds on to the Kerry states (which includes NH) + OH + IA + NM, that gets him 275EVs. If we lose IA and NH, NV could be the firewall state.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6610/03/2012

Ohio decides the election and there is NO way Ohio will vote for a Mormon.

Nevada has not polled +Romney EVER this cycle.

The Nevada Republican Party is a collection of unassociated business owners, Tea Partiers and Ron Paulines who all hate each other.

The RNC shut down its fraudulent registration program here amidst plenty of bad publicity.

The big money in Nevada is going to the Berkley/Heller Senate race, the Oceguera/Heck CD3 race and the Horsford/Tarkanian CD4 race.

Nevada is going to remain blue.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6710/03/2012

Rasmussen Tracking [Obama +2]

Obama - 49

Romney - 47


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

There is a bit less interest in this year’s first presidential debate than there was four years ago. Scott’s weekly newspaper column explains that the debates beginning this week are not likely to change the presidential race much, although even a small change could be decisive.

The president is up big in New Mexico and Washington. He retains a slight lead in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. New numbers out of North Carolina will be released at noon Eastern today.

Republicans now enjoy a four-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. However, state polling shows Democrats are now expected to retain control of the Senate. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power projections indicate that the Democrats are likely to win or hold 48 seats, while the GOP can probably count on 45. That leaves seven toss-ups. Republicans would need to win six of the seven to win control (or five of the seven if Romney wins and Vice President Paul Ryan can cast a tie-breaking vote).

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters think America is weaker today than it was four years ago. Twenty-nine percent (29%) believe it is stronger.t

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6810/03/2012

Raz is really trying to set Romney up for a debate bounce. The man is transparent.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 6910/03/2012

Oh, additionally Raz wants to set Romney up for an Obama 2007 Katrina tape bump.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7010/03/2012

Who are these undecided folks, and who are these swayable people who are bouncing back and forth between Romney and Obama at this late hour?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7110/03/2012

There WILL be a debate bounce for Romney, most likely making it look 'neck and neck" again, mostly because the media wants it that way AND unless he rips off his clothes and runs around the stage screaming "they're coming to get me!!!" Romney will surpass expectations...

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7210/03/2012

yeah, the media want this race tied and they want a Romney comeback so they can quote all the experts who said Obama was almost assured to win. The media love drama and comeback stories.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7310/03/2012

Obama won his first election nationally by over +7.

Polling, for 2012, has Obama on similar level with Whites.

He is on similar level with Blacks.

Obama is overperforming his numbers -- conspicuously -- with Hispanics.

No word with other racial groups, like Asians.

Obama is performing stronger numbers with the oldest two voting-age groups -- 45 to 64; 65+ -- than how well he did in 2008. (John McCain won 65+.)

Likelihood is that Obama is also overperforming his numbers with the other two voting-age group: 18 to 29; 30 to 44.

But in the meantime, Obama is down with men and up with women. Which would be a draw. But getting back to the voting-age groups, he's doing better in all. Getting back to the racial demographics, he's on the same level (as 2008) with Whites (whose sample size is probably going to get reduced -- changing demographics nationally are the reason); same level with Blacks (not much room for improvement); and really noticably further north with Hispanics.

So, how does it make sense to say that this U.S. presidential race is under 5 points?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7410/03/2012

potential voter turnout being lower?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7510/03/2012

The NBC/WSJ pollsters said this morning on Chuck Todd's show that the race is close because Hispanics and young people are less enthusiastic about voting this year than they were in 2008. This is reflected in the Likely Voter numbers. You'll notice that Obama has a +7 lead among registered voters, but drops to a +3 lead among likely voters.

The Obama campaign's job is to get Hispanics and young people to the polls. Hopefully, their ground game will live up to its hype.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7610/03/2012

Romney no way. Economy still sucks and I don't see it improving, so not sure about Obama. I'll watch the debates, but as of right now I'm undecided.

The only reason I post this here is I'm from Ohio and many co workers, and several gay friends are in the same boat.

One old queen I know has sworn up and down that she's going to write in "Daffy Duck" for president.

These polls are interesting and I can't wait to see how close they come to the actual vote.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7710/03/2012

NBC uses a very tough screen to determine who is a "likely voter." You basically have to say you are very enthusiastic about voting AND have voted in the 2008 and 2010 elections which is a very tough screen.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7810/03/2012

R77, why don't you put some thought to why the economy isn't improving? Could it be possible that Obama hasn't been able to get anything else through congress because the only thing those Republicans want to do is reduce taxes for the rich? If that's your solution, then don't vote for Obama because you're helping Romney if you don't vote for either.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 7910/03/2012

Gallup Tracking [Obama +4]

Obama - 49

Romney - 45t

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8010/03/2012


Public Policy Polling

Romney - 51

Obama - 45


MISSOURI - SENATE [McCaskill +6 ]

Public Policy Polling

McCaskill (D) - 46

Akin (R) - 40t


[quote]McCaskill leads by 6

PPP's newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds Claire McCaskill expanding her lead to 6 points. She's at 46% to 40% for Todd Akin and 9% for Libertarian Jonathan Dine. On our last poll of the race, in late August, McCaskill had led by only a single point.

Todd Akin's image is not seeing any recovery even with six weeks having passed since his controversial comments. 33% of voters see him favorably to 55% with an unfavorable opinion. Those numbers are essentially unchanged from our last poll when he was at 33/56.

One interesting development over the last month in this race is that Claire McCaskill's own popularity has actually improved. 44% of voters approve of her and 49% disapprove, up from a 40/55 spread in late August. The reason for that change is that Democrats are really rallying around her. She now has an 89/8 approval rating within her own party, up from a 73/23 standing last time.

Despite McCaskill's lead there's still reason to think this will be a competitive race. By a 50/42 margin voters would rather Republicans had control of the US Senate next year than the Democrats. Right now Akin's only winning 78% of the vote among people who wanted a GOP controlled Senate, compared to the 95% McCaskill's getting with folks who want a Democratic controlled Senate.

Missouri doesn't look like it will be terribly competitive in the Presidential race this year. Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama 51-45 in the state. That's an improvement for Obama from deficits of 10 and 12 points in our last two polls but still doesn't suggest it will see the kind of close margin it did in 2008.

“Claire McCaskill is increasingly looking like the favorite in the Missouri Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s not over yet by any means given the conservative turn of the state over the last four years.”

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8110/03/2012

MISSOURI - SENATE [McCaskill +6]

Rasmussen Reports

McCaskill - 51

Akin - 45


The deadline has passed for embattled Congressman Todd Akin to withdraw from Missouri’s U.S. Senate race, and incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill has now crossed the 50% mark for the first time.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Missouri Likely Voters shows McCaskill with 51% of the vote to Akin’s 45%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8210/03/2012

You have to wonder about Missouri, especially given the above.

Someone try to tell me that racism is not the answer.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8310/03/2012

I would try, but I can't say that it isn't.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8410/03/2012

Obama doesn't need Missouri, Romney does.

The most important thing in Missouri is the Senate seat. If the Democrats win that, they probably will retain the Senate Majority.

McCaskill being up in 2 polls is good news for her.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8510/03/2012

she's got my vote!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8610/03/2012


Marquette Universityt

Obama - 53

Romney - 42



Marquette Universityt

Baldwin (D) - 48

Thompson (R) - 44


[quote]Marquette Law School Poll finds U.S. Senate Race Tightens

[quote]Obama continues to lead Romney in Wisconsin

Milwaukee, Wis. – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Rep. Tammy Baldwin’s lead over former Governor Tommy Thompson has tightened to a 48 percent to 44 percent margin among likely voters. In the September 13-16 Marquette Poll, Baldwin led by 50 percent to 41 percent.

In the presidential race, President Barack Obama continues to lead former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 53 percent to 42 percent. In mid-September, Obama led 54 percent to 40 percent.

Partisans remain strongly united behind their party nominees in both races. Baldwin and Thompson each receive the backing of 92 percent of their respective partisans. Obama is supported by 96 percent of Democrats, while Romney gets the votes of 92 percent of Republicans. Independents split evenly in the Senate race, with Baldwin and Thompson each receiving 43 percent. In the presidential race, independents support Obama over Romney, 49 percent to 40 percent. Independents have become more closely divided since mid-September’s poll when they favored Baldwin 50-38 and Obama 53-38. In August, independents favored Thompson by a 10-percentage-point margin and Obama by 2 percentage points.

Gender gap

The gender gap plays a substantial role in both Senate and presidential contests. Among women, Baldwin leads Thompson by a 54-38 percent margin, while Thompson leads among men 50-41 percent. The gender gap is even wider for the presidential election. Obama holds a 61-36 percent margin among women while Romney leads among men by 49-44 percent.

Senate candidate images

Among likely voters, Baldwin’s favorability rating stands at 40 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable, compared to 39 percent favorable and 34 percent unfavorable in mid-September. Thompson received 38 percent favorable to 49 percent unfavorable in the latest poll, little changed from 39-48 in mid-September.

Asked if the phrase “cares about people like you” describes each candidate, 47 percent said it describes Baldwin, while 39 percent said it did not describe her. For Thompson, 41 percent said it described him, while 50 percent said it did not.

Presidential candidate images

Obama’s favorable-unfavorable rating among all registered voters stands at 56 percent favorable to 41 percent unfavorable; among likely voters it is 55 percent favorable to 43 percent unfavorable. Romney’s favorable rating among registered voters is 37 percent favorable to 53 percent unfavorable, and among likely voters is 39 percent favorable to 52 percent unfavorable.

By a 60 percent to 38 percent margin, likely voters say “cares about people like you” describes Obama. Thirty-nine percent say the phrase describes Romney, while 56 percent say it does not describe him. Asked if “strong leader” describes each candidate, 54 percent said it describes Obama, while 44 percent said it does not. Forty-seven percent say “strong leader” describes Romney, while 44 percent says it does not describe him.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8710/03/2012


Public Policy Polling

Romney - 53

Obama - 44


ARIZONA - SENATE [Carmona +2]

Public Policy Polling

Carmona (D) - 45

Flake (R) - 43


[quote]Carmona holds small lead in Arizona Senate Race

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest poll of the Arizona Senate race finds Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican foe Jeff Flake 45-43. That represents a small shift in Carmona's direction since our last poll of the state three weeks ago, which had found Flake ahead by just a 44-43 margin.

There's two things you have to do to win as a Democrat in a pretty Republican leaning state like Arizona: win independents and a get a healthy amount of crossover support from GOP voters. Right now Carmona's doing both of those things. He has a 52/37 advantage over Flake with independents. And he's winning over 14% of Republicans while losing just 7% of Democrats. Carmona's net favorability is a +8 spread (35/27), while Flake's is -1 at 40/41.

There are still reasons to think this race could shift back in Flake's favor. The 12% of voters who are undecided prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama for President by a 58/37 margin, so there's reason to think they might end up breaking toward Flake in the end. Also Arizona voters would generally prefer that Republicans be in control of the Senate rather than the Democrats by a 50/40 spread. That Carmona leads anyway is a function of him being superior to Flake as a candidate, but that still leaves open the possibility that if Republicans can effectively nationalize the election Flake's standing will improve.

“The Arizona Senate race really belongs in the toss up column at this point,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Our last three polls there have all found the candidates within 2 points of each other. Richard Carmona’s strength as a candidate is helping him overcome the Republican lean of the state.”

Arizona may go Democratic in the Presidential race sometime but it doesn't appear likely to be this year. We find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 53-44 in the state. This is a rare state where a majority of voters actually see Romney favorably. 54% have a positive opinion of him to 42% with a negative one. And Obama's quite unpopular with just 40% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8810/03/2012

Arizona is almost competitive!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 8910/03/2012

Obama has a respectable number in Arizona, yes, but the odds are still against him winning there according to Nate Silver. And as the PPP poll shows, AZ is one of the few states where Romney beats Obama in favorability. Not a good sign there.

However, what is winnable is the Senate race. Carmona is ahead in today's poll and tied overall, so if Carmona can get a bit more momentum over the next month, he could close the deal. Bill Clinton should come to AZ to campaign for Carmona - he's the only Democrat to have won the state (in 1996) since Truman in 1948.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9010/03/2012

R90 - That's why I said almost competitive. I don't expect Obama to carry AZ, but it is closer than I would have expected.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9110/03/2012

While I've heard that the Dems can't retake the House, how close can they get? Could they get in the 210 range?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9210/03/2012

Winning the Senate race in ARIZONA would be a huge victory for the Democrats.

That should be the major priority in that state.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9310/03/2012

Do not spend one dollar in AZ.

Not one.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9410/03/2012

Obama is doing better in Missouri and Arizona than Romney is doing in some of the so-called swing states, but the media doesn't want you to know that.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9510/03/2012

R94, the AZ Senate race is worth spending on. Carmona could win. That's why the DSCC just made a $500, 000 ad buy for him.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9610/03/2012

AZ also borders on NM.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9710/03/2012


Mass Insight

Obama - 60

Romney - 34



Mass Insight

Warren (D) - 48

Brown (R) - 44


[quote]Mass Insight poll shows Elizabeth Warren edging Sen. Scott Brown by 4 points in Senate race

In the contentious U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts, Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren is leading Republican Sen. Scott Brown by 4 percentage points, according to a survey released on Wednesday.

A Mass Insight Global Partnerships poll of 450 Bay State adults concluded that Warren is maintaining the edge on Brown, 48-44 percent, although her lead is within the 4.6 percent margin of error.

A WBUR/MassInc. poll released on Monday showed Warren ahead by two percentage points, 46-44, while a Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll released on Sunday concluded that Warren was leading by five points, 43-38 percent.

The Mass Insight poll conducted from Sept. 25-30, took place before the candidates squared off this week in their second of four scheduled televised debates.

The survey concludes that while Warren is leading overall, Brown remains in the good graces of more independent voters in Massachusetts, a category in which he towers over Warren by 12 points, 51-39 percent. The junior senator's overall favorability rating is also higher than Warren's, 55-51 percent.

Fifty-two percent of those surveyed said that Massachusetts needs to elect a Democrat to help prevent the Senate from falling under control of the national Republican Party. At the same time, 40 percent said that "having a moderate Republican senator is good for Massachusetts and the country."

Warren has worked to nationalize the race by tying Brown to the national Republican Party which has shifted further to the right in recent years, warning of what a GOP controlled Senate might mean for the country. Brown, on the other hand, has focused on his accomplishments as a senator and his reputation as a bipartisan legislator who can work with members of the other party.

Both candidates are aiming to not only further energize their own bases, but also to grab independent voters which, as of August, made up 52 percent of the adults registered to vote in Massachusetts. And while Warren is only pulling a very small margin of registered Republicans, Brown is aiming to boost his bipartisan appeal to win over registered Democrats to chip away at her chances of winning a six-year term in November.

When asked which candidate would help produce more jobs by striking "the right balance between promoting business and protecting consumers," 48 percent of those surveyed said Warren and 43 percent said Brown.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9810/03/2012

Dems could lose the Senate too? Good Christ! Akin better not win!! He still can.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 9910/03/2012

Most projections show the Democrats retaining the Senate, R99.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10010/03/2012

If Romney were to win, and Dems were to hold the Senate, could Romney still repeal Obamacare?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10110/03/2012



Obama - 56

Romney - 36




Inslee (D) - 48

McKenna (R) - 42


[quote]On Eve of 1st Presidential Debate, Obama with Largest Lead Yet in Washington State; Now Out-Performs 2008:

For the first time in SurveyUSA polling in Washington State in 2012, Barack Obama outperforms his 2008 finish, in the contest for President of the United States, according to research conducted for KING5-TV in Seattle. Obama today leads Republican Mitt Romney by 20 points, 56% to 36%. In 2008, Obama carried Washington state by 17 points. Obama gains ground and Romney loses ground among many different sub-populations.

* Romney's support among men erodes from 42% to 38%.

* Romney's support among seniors erodes from 47% to 43%. His support among those age 50 to 64 erodes from 36% to 32%.

* Romney's support among Independents erodes from 36% to 33%.

* Romney's support among moderates erodes from 27% to 24%.

* Romney's support in greater Seattle erodes from 34% to 26%.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10210/03/2012

No, I don't think so, R101.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10310/03/2012



A few polls out this morning, although obviously these would have been taken before last night's debate. It may take several days to a week before all those polls filter through and we can measure its effect. [PT]




Obama - 54

Romney - 42




McMahon (R) - 48t

Murphy (D) - 47

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10410/04/2012


Rasmussen Reports

Romney - 49

Obama - 46

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10510/04/2012

Rasmussen Trackingt [Obama +2]

Obama - 49

Romney - 47


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

It is important to note, however, that most of the interviews for this survey were conducted before last night’s first presidential debate between Obama and Romney. The daily Presidential Trackng Poll is based on telephone interviews of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis.

Early indications are that Romney was the big winner last night, but just 17% of voters view the debates as Very Important to how they will vote.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10610/04/2012

Gallup Tracking [Obama +4]

Obama - 49

Romney - 45



President Obama Job Approval [Approve +12]

Approve - 54

Disapprove - 42

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10710/04/2012

Pennylvania just turned red!!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10810/04/2012


Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG

Obama - 62

Romney - 30


[quote]Civil Beat Poll - Obama Gets Aloha in Hawaii

WASHINGTON — The state that provided President Barack Obama his largest margin of victory in 2008 remains sunny about his economic leadership and is set to again back him in overwhelming numbers.

Obama, a Democrat born and schooled in Honolulu who still vacations on the Windward Coast, leads Republican challenger Mitt Romney 62 percent to 30 percent among likely Hawaii voters, according to The Civil Beat Poll. Three percent said they'll vote for another candidate and 6 percent said they were undecided. The survey was conducted between Sept. 26 and Sept. 28 and its sample size of 1,648 yielded a margin of error of 2.4 percent.1

Obama leads among both men and women, though slightly more so among women. He leads among all age groups, though slightly more so among voters in their 30s. He leads among all racial and ethnic groups, though more so among Japanese voters and less so among Chinese voters. Obama also holds wide leads among voters at all education levels and income brackets in Hawaii. His support was marginally stronger on the neighbor islands, collectively, than on Oahu.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 10910/04/2012

WASHINGTON - SENATE [Cantwell +20]

Rasmussen Reports

Cantwell (D) - 57

Baumgartner (R) - 37


Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger Michael Baumgartner in Washington State’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Washington Voters finds Cantwell earning 57% support, while Baumgartner, a state senator, draws 37% of the vote. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11010/04/2012


Public Policy Polling

Nixon (D) - 54

Spence (R) - 35


[quote]Nixon Towers Above Spence in Missouri

Raleigh, N.C. – The “Show Me” state is ready to show its enthusiasm to vote on November 6. A recent poll in the state shows that 85% of Missouri voters are excited to vote in the November election. 61% of those surveyed identify as ‘very excited’ to vote. Missouri voters are already showing their enthusiasm and support for their state Democratic candidates.

Jay Nixon takes the cake for Governor of Missouri in the upcoming election. In the past six weeks Nixon has created an even larger gap between himself and his Republican opponent, Dave Spence. When polled in August, Nixon was ahead of Spence by 9 points (46-37). Now, if the election were held today, Nixon is favored by 19 points (54-35).

Although Spence called Nixon the ‘Captain of the Titanic’ during the September 21 debate, it’s apparent that Spence’s campaign is clearly set to fail.

“It’s actually looking possible now that Jay Nixon could match his 20 point margin of victory from 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s really blown this race open over the last six weeks.”

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11110/04/2012

r111 - between the Senate and Governor races, which are leaning Dem, that can only be good news for Obama. He may have a chance in MO after all.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11210/04/2012

R112, MISSOURI has been narrowing, but I'm going to wait and see what the polls show in a few days. We have to remember these polls were taken before last night's debate, and it's possible Obama could lose some ground in a red-leaning state like this.

The most important objective in MO is for McCaskill to get re-elected. She's not out of the woods yet. Still a close race, although she was in the lead going into last night's debate.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11310/04/2012

Just fucking upset that all these great leads are going to be eroded and obama has to use the Get out the vote money to flood the airwaves again

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11410/04/2012

Hi, MJ. Sorry I've been out of touch the past couple weeks.

I'm hoping to write some articles over the next month for your site before we get to the election.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11510/04/2012

[quote]2012 Senate Election Polls Show Republicans Continue To Face Uphill Battle


WASHINGTON -- With the exception of Connecticut, where a new poll released on Thursday indicates a very close race for the open Senate seat being vacated by independent Sen. Joe Lieberman, Republicans have seen few positive trends in their uphill battle to regain control of the U.S. Senate.

Currently, a combination of both returning senators and also candidates leading in 2012 contests would give the Democrats 48 seats, with 51 needed for a majority. One independent candidate likely to caucus with the Democrats continues to lead in polls in Maine. To retain control of the Senate, the Democrats would need to carry just two of eight races now considered toss-ups, a list that has been expanding in recent weeks.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11610/04/2012

31 days left. I am so sick of this campaign season. IT is taking a toll on me.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11710/04/2012


Updated 11:19 PM ET on Oct. 4



OBAMA: 321.2

ROMNEY: 216.8



OBAMA: 87.1%

ROMNEY: 12.9%



OBAMA: 51.6%

ROMNEY: 47.3%

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11810/04/2012


Number of seats:

Democrats: 51.9

Republicans: 48.1


Chance of Majority:

Democrats: 82.7%

Republicans: 17.3%

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 11910/04/2012

No problem polltroll , I have been reading your thread religiously even when I dont comment

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12010/05/2012


Rasmussen Tracking [Obama +2]

Obama - 49

Romney - 47


President Obama Job Approval [Approve +2]

Approve - 50

Disapprove - 48


Friday, October 05, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about one-third of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. The single night of polling conducted after the debate did show some improvement for Romney, but it remains to be seen whether that will continue or if it was merely statistical noise. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12110/05/2012

Friday, October 05, 2012

Obama - 49%

Romney - 47%

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about one-third of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. The single night of polling conducted after the debate did show some improvement for Romney, but it remains to be seen whether that will continue or if it was merely statistical noise. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12210/05/2012

That Obama is hitting 50% in approval is a big deal. That has always been one of the big thresholds. A president with a approval rating at that level or greater is almost always re-elected.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12310/05/2012

I can't believe after all of the "acting" Romney was doing during the debates he's still behind. The country just doesn't want this guy.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12410/05/2012

There are rumors that Ann Romney was extra snippy with the staff this morning.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12510/05/2012


by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12610/05/2012

cdub24FollowRSS Daily Kos member

Profile Diaries (list) Stream

Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:40 AM PDT BAD POLLS in OH & FL :(

by cdub24Follow New permalink t24 Comments

Some disheartening but hopefully temporary news this morning:

Ohio: Romney 47%, Obama 46% (We Ask America) (last poll was 48-40 Obama on 7/24)

Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 46% (We Ask America) (last poll was 49-46 Obama on 9/16)

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen) (last poll was 49-48 Obama on 9/13)

Virginia: Romney 48%, Obama 45% (We Ask America) (last poll was 49-46 Obama on 9/17)

So not good. There are Republican leaning polls - but they had Obama leading last time.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12710/05/2012

Rasmussen OH just released and has Obama AHEAD: (albeit by a point)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen) (last poll was 47-46 Obama on 9/12)

So both gained in that poll. It's a race again.

7:53 AM PT: Josh Marshal on these polls:

A couple notes on this. We Ask America released polls of Ohio, Florida and Virginia today with Mitt Romney holding small leads in each. They’re a Republicanish pollster. But their number have been more reactive and bouncy than consistently Republican. Colorado moved based on a poll released by a Republican pollster. So the numbers suggest movement back in Romney’s direction. But so far the data comes from pollsters with a somewhat iffy (as to accuracy) record.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12810/05/2012

"We Ask America" : exposed (0+ / 0-)

This is what I found out about them:

UPDATE: So I did some research on the identity of We Ask America. Its website only discloses that it is a division of "Xpress Professional Services, Inc." But it does not tell the reader what exactly that means, which turns out to be quite significant.

Xpress Professional Services, Inc. is a subsidiary of the Illinois Manufacturer's Association, which is an anti-union, anti-tax, and anti-Health Care Reform industry advocacy organization.

Its CEO is Greg Baise, who was a 1990 Republican candidate for Treasurer, losing to Pat Quinn by 11%. He is also Treasurer of the Economic Freedom Alliance, which has targeted Democrat Bill Foster with advertising labeling him as a "job killer" for his support of card check legislation.

The bottom line is that this is a partisan Republican pollster and an arm of the pro-business Illinois Manufacturer's Association. There is nothing wrong with being a Republican pollster or being an arm of the Illinois Manufacturer's Association. However, there is something wrong with the half-ass disclosure on the website of an affiliation with "Xpress Professional Services, Inc.," which could be anything, instead of a full disclosure of the direct link to the Illinois Manufacturer's Association and its Republican principals.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 12910/05/2012

According to David Nir . . .

We Ask America, the polling arm of the right-wing Illinois Manufacturers' Association (a relationship they do their best to hide) . . .

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13010/05/2012

Doesn't matter.

The job report seals the deal.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13110/05/2012

This comment from WAA on their polls (1+ / 0-)

We fully admit that polling this soon after this debate may only give us a needle-flick snapshot of a knee-jerk reaction

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13210/05/2012

The exact same thing happened in August when Ryan was announced. He announces Ryan and boom out of the stable comes Ras and Purple Strategies with several polls in these same states that gives Romney a sudden 1-3pt lead in the face of almost every other pollster that had shown Obama by 3-8pts.

It lasted a week.

Also, in July, WAA found a Romney + 5 in VA the same week other pollsters were finding Obama with leads of 4, 8, 7 & 5, Ras could only muster a tie and even good old PS gave Obama +3...

This is what I call "Black August" FL - Rasmussen Reports 8/15 - 8/15 500 LV 4.5 43 45 Romney +2 FL - Purple Strategies 8/13 - 8/14 600 LV 4.0 47 48 Romney +1 VA - Purple Strategies 8/13 - 8/14 600 LV 4.0 45 48 Romney +3 OH - Purple Strategies 8/13 - 8/14 600 LV 4.0 44 46 Romney +2 OH - Rasmussen Reports 8/13 - 8/13 500 LV 4.5 45 45 Tie

Romney's leads come from known right leaning pollsters or those with no reputation and not from the "nonaligned" shall we say, Obama crosses both these thresholds. Romney gets brief "event" bounces, well unless he holds a boring convention in Florida, Obama has consistency across the board.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13310/05/2012


Rasmussen Reports

Kaine (D) - 52

Allen (R) - 45


Friday, October 05, 2012

Democrat Tim Kaine has now pulled away from Republican rival George Allen and has crossed the 50% mark for the first time.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13410/05/2012


Die, Macaca Man!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13510/05/2012

Obama is actually in Virginia right now, and yes, it looks like 'Macaca' may be going down for good this time.

[quote]Obama returns to hard tack on Romney in Virginia:

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13610/05/2012

Gallup [Obama +5]

Obama - 50

Romney - 45


Obama Approval -52

Obama Disapproval - 43

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13710/05/2012

Glad the prez is still at 50 on Gallup, even after the debates.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13810/05/2012

[quote]Glad the prez is still at 50 on Gallup, even after the debates.

Much of the Gallup data is still pre-debate, since that's a 7-day rolling average.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 13910/05/2012

Expect one mini "surge" when the polls reflect the day after the debate. But by the next day we were talking about all the lies Romney told, and the day after that (today) has been all about 7.8%.

Suck it, Romney!!!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14010/05/2012

Yes R140!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14110/05/2012

New polls show Obama crushing Romney among swing-state Hispanics

President Obama is crushing Mitt Romney among swing-state Hispanics, according to two new polls out from nonpartisan pollster Latino Decisions.

Obama leads Romney by 78 to 17 percent with Nevada's Hispanic voters, a huge gap that outpaces the 76-to-22 percent edge he had over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) four years ago in the state.

In Florida, where the Republican-leaning Cuban population bolsters Latino GOP support, Obama leads Romney by a 30-point margin, at 61 percent to 31. That's double the 15-point edge he had with the state's Hispanics four years ago, when he carried the demographic group by 57 percent to 42. If Romney can't close these gaps it will be very difficult for him to win Nevada, and complicate his path to victory in Florida. The group will release polling results in Colorado, another swing state with a large Hispanic population, next week.

These new results mirror national polling by this and other groups that show Obama outpacing his 2008 performance with Latino voters and Romney struggling mightily. Two recent national polls of Hispanic voters show Obama cracking 70 percent, with Romney pulling between one-fifth and one-quarter of Latino voters. A senior Romney Hispanic strategist told The Hill this summer that the campaign's goal was to win 38 percent of the national Hispanic vote.

Romney's campaign has made a recent push for more Latino support, and argued earlier this week that it was doing better than national polling indicated with swing-state Hispanics. But these polls, the only ones so far to conduct polling in Spanish as well as English and have large enough sample sizes to be trusted, indicate the opposite.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14210/05/2012

#1) jobs report

#2) Big Bird

It's all good.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14310/05/2012


Rasmussen Trackingt [Romney +2]

Romney - 49

Obama - 47


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.

Still, the numbers reflect quite a debate bounce for Romney. Heading into Wednesday’s showdown, it was the president who enjoyed a two-point advantage. Today is the first time Romney has been ahead by even a single point since mid-September. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.

Both men have solidified their partisan base. Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16.

The generation gap remains wide. Obama leads by double digits among those under 40. Romney leads by double digits among those over 40.

Post-debate state polls show Romney up one in Virginia, the president up one in Ohio and Romney up two in Florida. All three remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.”

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14410/06/2012

Rasmussen is very predictable.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14510/06/2012

Ipsos/Reuters has also teased that Romney will surge ahead by today. The polling trends are not good for Obama. His debate performance may cost not only him the elections, but Democrats downballot and gay marriage votes. He was reckless to come to a debate unprepared and lethargic.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14610/06/2012

President Obama will win reelection. Handily.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14710/06/2012

This Big Bird thing really has wings, doesn't it? That's the only specific thing that anyone remembers from the debate.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14810/06/2012

Here's a hanky, R146.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 14910/06/2012

Gravis Marketing says Romney is surging big in Colorado, from Obama +5% before the debate to Romney +3% in poll only partially conducted after the debate. It is possible Romney could be up more than 5 points amongst voters surveyed AFTER the debate.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15010/06/2012

Clinton is the only incumbent president in the modern era to win his first debate, yet why isn't Obama practically living with the dude at this point in debate preparation? I just don't get why they are not pushing debate prep to the meddle. I think Obama should cancel some appearances because they will not matter if he doesnt do much better in the next two debates. The debates are THE priority now. No more stupid, arrogant Hoover Dam photo ops.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15110/06/2012

National - 2012 President - Obama 46%, Romney 47% (Clarus Research Group 10/4) National - 2012 President - Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Clarus Research Group 10/2)

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15210/06/2012

Clarus Research, the group run by former Campaigns and Elections publisher Ron Faucheux. They claimed in a write-up today to have done two single-day samples, one on Tuesday and one on Thursday. The Tuesday sample was Obama +4. The Thursday sample is Romney +1. Of course, there is some issues inherent in single-day samples. But this is just another data point to add to the pile.

The media now have the Romney surge they have been rooting for.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15310/06/2012

Romney's surge won't last, wait until all the talk about his lies in the debate settles in AND the jobs number and the next three debates. His lead is only temporary. I agree with R147.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15410/06/2012

If these polls hold, it will be the biggest swing ever seen in presidential politics. It's shocking and breathtaking.

Obama was ahead in every swing state on Wednesday morning, with an 87% chance of victory. Twelve hours later, Romney had taken the lead in all the big swing states.

Are voters really this fickle and naive?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15510/06/2012

r155, the answer is a BIG yes. The debates were watched by 70 million people, by far more than the conventions. The media has further spread the meme that Romney knocked the President out and the President looked like he did not care. That type of media coverage is gonna affect the voters. Obama had the worst coverage of the year this week. It would have been one thing of Obama was perceived to have been just outargued by Romney, but the widespread perception is that Obama just did not care, was lazy, seemed bored, lacked fight, and was not prepared. Those are images and perceptions that relate to how people evaluate whether someone is a good or would be a good Commander in Chief.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15610/06/2012

Gallup tracking - President 49 Romney 46

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15710/06/2012

Temporary gain for Mittens.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15810/06/2012

I can't believe that Obama threw away the election like he did. Get ready for President Mittens--no health care reform, no gay rights, and a solidly conservative Supreme Court. Ugh.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 15910/06/2012

It wasn't the debate; it's the media's coverage of the debate that has changed people's minds.

This is starting to feel like a Nixon/Kennedy moment. I hope I am wrong. But i don't have a lot of faith in the average person's ability to engage in critical thinking.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16010/06/2012

Wow, you guys aren't serious? Mittens is NOT going to win this. Obama's already coming back, chill out.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16110/06/2012

Still CANNOT be complacent, or take anything for granted! Just a few more wks. - do what ya can to help out Obama....

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16210/06/2012

Agreed R162.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16310/06/2012

The problem is that early voting is already occurring in most swing states. Right at the exact time when Obama is sinking in the polls--and he is sinking. It couldn't come at a worse time.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16410/06/2012

The good news is that there are 31 days left and three total debates, including Biden. The bad news is that just a week ago, I wished we could fastforward time (and the polls) to November 6. Debates usually dont determine the election, but then again, have we ever had a sitting President perform in a manner that people perceive as he didn't care, was lazy, was lethargic, didn't prepare, didn't take on his opponent, and lacked specifics? Yes, Romney lied, but the media and public didn't call him on it, so he is still viewed as the fiesty winner who cared enough to prepare and know his stuff. I really hate I am wrong, but I dont think the jobs numbers will help because of the rightwing blowback and conspiracy theories, and the media's obsession with Obama's debate performance. The only way Obama can win is if he and Obama have knockout performances in all the remaining debates. Obama should cancel some campaign stops, get Bill Clinton, study, watch Romney debate tapes, and seclude himself with debate coaches.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16510/06/2012

It's depressingly astonishing how incredibly fucking stupid so many people are.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16610/06/2012

Nate Silver's career is over. Who will ever trust his numbers again?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16710/06/2012

Undecided voters almost always vote on Election Day, R164. Partisans and informed voters are likely to vote early, while low-education, wishy-washy undecided voters wait until the last minute.

We still have time.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16810/06/2012

I don't know what you concern trolls are looking at, but the discussion on and other similar websites is all about the impressive job numbers and Mitt's flip-flopping (reversal of the "47%").

Get a grip.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 16910/06/2012

This is a textbook example of why you don't get cocky in September about polls and the news narrative at that time. A lot of people who were proclaiming that Obama was almost certainly win just two weeks ago are now looking foolish and trying to think of ways to backtrack. I suspect that Obama and his campaign fell for the same overconfidence. How else can you explain his lack of preparedness at the debates and seemingly lethargic demeanor? His campaign did not think the debates would matter because they were so far up in the polls in swing states. They blew off the friggin debates. They better wake up and learn a lesson now. They are guilty of political recklessness.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17010/06/2012

And if he tanks the next two debates? And BIDEN. We NEVER know what Biden will do. What if he says one of his patented gaffes? Or TEN? I'm disheartened, I admit. It looks very dicey ahead. Unless the stock market breaks 14000 which is unlikely in one month, I'm not sure what good news options are ahead if the team screws up all of the debates.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17110/06/2012

Pundits, including Nate Silver, predicted that Romney would get a 2-3 point bump out of the debates, but it looks like he's getting a 5+ point bump. That's a game-changer. And it's happening while early voting is taking place, unlike Obama's convention and 47% bumps which occurred before early voting.

I honestly don't think Obama can overcome this with less than a month to go, especially since he has never put in a great debate performance during his entire political career.

I think FL, VA, CO and NC are gone. Obama and Bill Clinton have to camp out in OH for the next month and hope they can hold onto the state. I don't even know if Obama can make it to 270 EVs with just OH?

Joe Biden, Bill Clinton and the big money donors have to be beyond furious with Obama's arrogant behavior.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17210/06/2012

R172 is ignorant. Decades of political science research show that undecided voters - those low-information voters that take forever to make up their minds - do not traditionally vote early. They will be their indecisive selves until Election Day itself.

Your concern trolling just earned you a 'F&F', R172.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17310/06/2012

You're all kinds of wrong R172. Romney's convention bump came and went weeks ago.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17410/06/2012

How retarded are you, if you are undecided? Stay home dimwits, who needs you?

It has already been predetermined, Obama will win but I'm telling you honestly, if he would put on 10 pounds, he would look more like a winner and less like a dying man.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17510/06/2012

r172 is more than ignorant....

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17610/06/2012

This is a lot of Republican shilling. Romney is NOT ahead in any of the swing states except NC and he was already ahead there.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17710/06/2012

Poll Troll 2012 - I am completely panicked and just don't know what to think!!!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17810/06/2012

Thank you, R177.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 17910/06/2012

My God, I just clicked on this thread. You guys are completely losing it. Are you the same ones who just a few weeks ago were saying this is in the bag? Talk about schizophrenia. I've been hesitant to say this election has been pretty much decided, but one debate does not change anything. If that were the case John Kerry would have beaten W in 04. Just take a deep breath.

Or are you guys, just gay republicans, fucking around?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18010/06/2012

The majority are gay republicans, followed by plain fucking republicans, followed by hysterical nellies.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18110/06/2012

They're not gay republicans; they're most likely straight republications paid to shill the site and stir up fear. They did this in 2008 as well. They post their manufactured concern and fear and trembling (thank you, Kierkegaard) and they do this on Daily Kos and the Huffington post and popular blogs with high hit-rates (like Datalounge) so the "worry" appears high up in the google hits.

They're assholes; ignore their squealing and vote, and volunteer your time to the Obama campaign, of course.

There are also the more pitiable cases where good left-wingers get taken in by the machinations and freeeek the fuck out. That happened in 2008, too. This has all happened before.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18210/06/2012

It will get around, don't worry.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18310/06/2012

Oh GREAT! So now they're tying Clint's empty chair and Obama's flat performance into a New Yorker cover.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18410/06/2012

Gallup Tracking [Obama +3]

Obama - 49

Romney - 46


President Obama Job Approval [Approve +5]

Approve - 50

Disapprove - 45

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18510/06/2012

President Obama Job Approvalt [Approve +1]

Rasmussen Reports

Approve - 50

Disapprove - 49t

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18610/06/2012


Public Policy Polling

Obama - 49

Romney - 47


[quote]Obama lead down to 2 in Wisconsin

PPP's newest Wisconsin poll finds a big debate bump for Mitt Romney in the state. Two weeks ago he trailed Barack Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.

There's not much doubt it was Romney's strong debate performance on Wednesday night that's given him this boost. Voters think he won the debate by a 61/25 margin, including a 60/19 margin with independents. 95% of Republicans think Romney won the debate, while only 50% of Democrats claim to think Obama was the winner. Romney's image has seen significant improvement over the last couple weeks with 49% of voters now expressing a positive opinion of him to 48% with a negative one. That's up a net 8 points from a 44/51 spread on our last poll.

The main shift compared to 2 weeks ago in Wisconsin is an increase in Republican enthusiasm about Romney and the election in general. He's gone from leading Obama by 79 points with Republicans (89-10) to an 85 point advantage (92-7). One thing that might be reassuring for Democrats is that Obama's held steady with independents in the state, continuing to hold a 9 point lead.

There's also been a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election. Two weeks ago there was basically no enthusiasm gap with 65% of Democrats and 63% of GOP voters saying they were 'very excited' to vote this fall. Now the Republicans are seeing an advantage on that question with their share of 'very excited' voters climbing to 72% while the Democrats have declined to 63%.

Looking at the movement in Wisconsin along racial lines, it's all come with white voters. They've gone from favoring Obama by 5 to supporting Romney by 3. Obama continues to get more than 70% among minorities. Obama's declined with women, going from an 11 point lead to a 7 point one, but he's declined even more with men, dropping from a 3 point lead to a 4 point deficit.

The most discussed issue in the wake of the debate Wednesday night has been about funding for public broadcasting. 51% of voters say they support federal funding for PBS to 33% who are opposed to it. Democrats (80/8) strongly support funding, Republicans (22/55) strongly oppose it, and independents (50/37) come pretty close to matching the overall numbers. We also asked about Big Bird himself and while he's a popular figure overall with a 51/11 favorability rating even his reviews have become somewhat partisan with Democrats (58/11) rating him a lot higher than Republicans (37/12).

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18710/06/2012

The Gallup numbers show that Obama still has a lead.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18810/06/2012

Republicans actually hate Big Bird? How vile. We need to hammer away at Romney with this - it'll play poorly with the independents.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 18910/06/2012

[quote]Obama still more liked than Romney despite poor debate

Reuters - 4 hrs ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Mitt Romney's strong debate performance did little to convince more voters he understands them or is a "good person" even though he has narrowed President Barack Obama's overall poll lead, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey released on Saturday.

Just a month before the November 6 election, the Democratic president is ahead of his Republican challenger on character attributes that can win over undecided voters who have not been swayed on policy points.

Romney gained in a few areas, but not at Obama's expense despite the incumbent's lackluster performance in the first presidential debate on Wednesday.

On the broad question of who they will vote for in November, Obama kept his slim 2 percentage point lead over Romney among likely voters - 47 to 45 percent - in the online survey.

The gap was unchanged from Friday, when Obama led by 46 to 44 percent in the tracking poll. His lead was 6 percentage points before the two men first went head-to-head in Denver.

"We haven't seen additional gains from Romney. This suggests to me that this is more of a bounce than a permanent shift," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said.

The poll did not show Obama backers shifting to Romney. Rather, Romney's small gains on a few of the issues came from people who had been undecided.

Obama even gained ground in some voters' assessment of his character since before the debate, even though a majority - 55 to 23 percent - felt Romney did a better job during the encounter in Denver, the survey showed.

Forty-seven percent of registered voters deemed Obama "a good person," compared with 31 percent who felt that way about Romney. In a similar survey on September 28, Obama led by 43 percent to Romney's 32 percent.

Obama held his ground on a range of such questions. Far more voters (53 to 29 percent) deemed Obama likeable than feel the same way about Romney. He also leads by a healthy margin (43 to 37 percent) on who has the right values to be president.

In addition, 43 percent felt Obama "understands people like me," compared with 31 percent who felt that way about Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and wealthy businessman who has struggled to connect with average Americans.


"There's still a ways to go to close the gap between him and Obama on some of these important attributes," Clark said. "This suggests to me that while the debate was effective in energizing the Republican base and giving Romney a boost, it didn't fundamentally change perceptions of either man a great deal."

Romney made some gains. He was up 4 percentage points when voters were asked if he is eloquent, compared with the survey released on September 28. But he still lags well behind, with Obama leading 48 percent to 27 percent.

Romney also gained 3 percentage points on the questions of who is tough enough to be president and fun to meet in person. Obama still leads on both, with a 42 to 38 percent edge on the toughness question and a striking 48 to 24 percent advantage on who would be fun to meet.

Ratings of the two men were generally tighter on issues more closely linked to the nuts and bolts of governing. They were tied with the support of just over a third of voters - 37 percent - on the question of who can be effective in Washington.

About a third - 34 percent - of registered voters picked Obama as stronger on the issue of bipartisanship than the roughly one quarter - 27 percent - who opted for Romney.

The online survey of 1,770 registered voters and 1,492 likely voters was conducted from October 2-6.

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for registered voters and 2.9 for likely voters.

For the question of bipartisanship, which was added to the survey on Wednesday night, the credibility interval is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with an interview base of 1,323 registered voters.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19010/06/2012

Thank you, R190.

Stuff it, freepers.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19110/06/2012

Obama has lost 5 points in WI, according to PPP. He's also lost 4 points in the Reuters national poll. That's pretty fucking huge after only one debate. I don't think we've ever seen that big of a swing in the polls after a debate.

My biggest concern is how energized Republicans are now to get out and vote. Republicans will vote--you can count on that. I don't know if we can count on Latinos and young people to make it to the polls now.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19210/06/2012

R192 - You're cherry picking. Obama is down in some polls, but stabl;e in some, and is even up in others. The overall effect is small.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19310/06/2012

r192. It is called a 'bump' - not a 'loss.' There is a big difference. Romney may have established a longer term gain point wise, but bumps typically do subside and as the article in r190 puts it, what is happening looks like a 'bump.'

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19410/06/2012

We haven't seen additional gains from Romney. This suggests to me that this is more of a bounce than a permanent shift," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19510/06/2012

R193, what poll is Obama up in?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19610/06/2012

R192 is trying to pretend he didn't see R190.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19710/06/2012


Western New England University

Warren (D) - 50

Brown (R) - 45

-------- [quote]WNE Poll: Elizabeth Warren holds 5-point edge over Sen. Scott Brown in Massachusetts Senate race

SPRINGFIELD - A new poll shows that while Democrat Elizabeth Warren has maintained a steady margin of support over Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race, the number of people who see her in an unfavorable light is on the rise.

The latest survey conducted by the Western New England University Polling Institute through a partnership with The Republican/, concluded that Warren is leading Brown, 50 percent to 45 percent, with the junior senator jumping one percentage point compared to the Sept. 6-13 poll.

In terms of overall favorability, both candidates saw their positive ratings drop slightly and their negative ratings climb. Warren's favorable/unfavorable rating is now 50 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, compared to 53 percent to 33 percent just three weeks ago.

Brown's favorable/unfavorable rating is currently 52 percent to 36 percent, compared to 54 percent to 32 percent in the previous Western New England University poll.

Anthony Cignoli, a political strategist who consults Democrats and Republicans but is uninvolved in this race, said the most significant change in the aforementioned numbers is Warren's unfavorability rating, which grew from 33 percent to 41 percent in just three weeks. "In my profession, you always look at the favorability numbers first and foremost," he said. "The horserace numbers will shift and you expect some movement in favorability, but when you see a change like this, it will definitely grab the attention of the campaigns."

Cignoli said that the increase in the number of people seeing Warren in a negative light could be attributed to a number of factors, but the most likely is the barrage of ads voters are seeing from the Brown campaign calling Warren's character into question.

"In the first debate, you saw Brown lead on her Native American ancestry and then follow up with ads showing what appeared to be regular people with accents from Boston to the Berkshires saying that this issue is a problem for them," Cignoli said, referring to the Brown campaign's ads targeting Warren's claims of Native American ancestry. "A strategy in politics is to tear down the credibility of an opponent to create doubt. And when in doubt, voters tend to vote against that candidate."

Tim Vercellotti, a professor of political science and director of the Western New England University Polling Institute, also said that while Warren is still hanging on to the lead in the race, "her unfavorability is pretty striking."

"But when you look at the gender split, she is compensating for that with her popularity among women voters," he said.

In the current poll, Warren leads Brown 61 percent to 35 percent among women, a 26-point margin. Brown leads Warren 56 percent to 38 percent among men, an 18-point margin.

Women in Massachusetts typically favor Democrats. Women’s issues – including abortion and legislation relating to equal pay – have come up frequently both in the Massachusetts Senate race and in the national political arena.

While Brown has worked to promote a pro-woman image in TV ads and statements, Warren's charge that Brown is part of the national Republican Party and its so-called "war against women" may be resonating with some voters.

Brown's job approval rating remained steady at 55 percent, although the number of women who give him that thumbs up dropped eight points to 45 percent compared to three weeks ago.

Brown, who has focused his campaign on cultivating a bipartisan image, has held a strong lead among independent voters throughout the campaign. The Sept. 6-13 poll found Brown leading Warren among independents, 57 percent to 35 percent. In the current poll, Brown has expanded his lead among independent likely voters to 62 percent to 35 percent.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19810/06/2012


University of Denver, Colorado Voter Poll

Obama (D) - 47

Romney (R) - 43



Four percent said that they would vote for someone else, and five percent noted that they remain undecided. The poll also found that President Obama is currently leading among independent voters, 48-31.

Despite President Obama’s current lead in Colorado, respondents have improving impressions of Gov. Romney. Those who said that they watched or heard about the debate believe that Gov. Romney won by a huge margin, 68-19. That includes almost half of Obama supporters (47 percent), with just 37 percent of the president’s supporters saying he did the better job.

In addition, 38 percent of likely Colorado voters said their impression of Gov. Romney is improving, while 18 percent of respondents felt the same way about President Obama.

"Two important lessons from the polls are, first, there are very few undecided voters left in Colorado, and second, Gov. Romney has improved his position to win them over in the closing days of the race," said University of Denver political scientist Dr. Peter Hanson.

"President Obama is maintaining a narrow lead in the state, but the major question is how much movement we can expect in the polls in coming weeks with not many voters left for the candidates to persuade."

A huge majority of Colorado's likely voters paid close attention to the debate. Eighty-one percent said they watched the debate and another 14 percent said they had heard about it. When asked an open-ended question about where the debate took place, 74 percent correctly identified the University of Denver (35 percent said "the University of Denver," 21 percent said "Denver University," and 18 percent said "DU").

Nationwide, the debate was viewed by 67.2 million people, according to recent Nielsen ratings. The debate’s major effect was reinforcing existing views of likely voters rather than changing them.

Sixty-nine percent of debate watchers became more strongly committed to their candidate, while only 7 percent became less strongly committed to their candidate. Five percent of debate watchers reported changing their minds.

Fifty-nine percent of respondents said jobs and the economy were the most important issues in the election—and by a margin of 50-45, they said Gov. Romney would do a better job.

Significantly, among voters who cited jobs and the economy as their top concerns, Gov. Romney leads President Obama, 56-32.

"The poll found a significant amount of polarization in the Colorado electorate in regards to the economy," noted University of Denver political scientist Dr. Seth Masket. "Democrats are much more likely to see the economy and their overall economic situation to have improved over the past year. Republicans, meanwhile, have strongly negative views of the economy and their own economic situation over the past year. Independents are more likely to say that the economy has gotten worse over the past year."

Here are other key findings related to several issues specific to Colorado:


Sixty-three percent of respondents favor a policy that allows illegal immigrants living and working in the United States the chance to keep their jobs and apply for legal status. Sixty-eight percent of respondents favor the President Obama’s policy to allow illegal immigrants who came to the United States as children to obtain work permits and not face deportation.

Same-sex marriage:

Seventy-three percent of respondents support legal recognition of same-sex relationships. Forty-nine percent of respondents support legalizing same-sex marriage, while 24 percent prefer to legalize civil unions. Twenty-three percent said no legal recognition should be given to same-sex relationships.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 19910/06/2012

I'm not familiar with any biases that the University of Denver poll may or may not have in their poll but it should be alarming to Romney's camp that even after the best day of his campaign, they are still behind Obama in the state that is essentially a must-win for them.

This poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday after the debate, where the news was dominated by both right and left wing pundits proclaiming that Romney won the debate.

This is encouraging news.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20010/07/2012

Remaining up in Colorado is good. I'll admit that as a diehard Obama supporter, this wasn't a good week. I've been trying all along to ignore the useless media hype, but the real game has always been Ohio and Florida, and it's not quite so clear at the moment that we have those in the bag and it's scary.

All along, this has been a contest for Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin. I wish things were stronger in those states right now, but even if we win Ohio by one point it still holds a firewall. Closing the gap doesn't necessarily mean winning.

If we're holding on in Colorado and Wisconsin, even by a nose, we could lose Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. If we hold Ohio, we're almost certainly good. If we hold Florida, Romney has no chance. Ohio seems like the best place to focus as much money and attention as possible - I'd almost say forget North Carolina, definitely forget about Missouri, and put everything into shoring up Ohio. Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.

I'm not going to claim that the debate was 3-dimensional chess or any master plan on Obama's part, he sadly made a big misstep at an important moment. But he seems to be reacting well, and perhaps this will serve as a shot in the arm to any complacent Democrats. Maybe people will get the message that no, it's not a foregone conclusion and we need to get people to the damn polls. No sitting this one out.

I'm holding my breath until Wednesday. If multiple polls on Wednesday have Obama down in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin, then we have problems. I'm going to try and be calm until then.

But the media have finally gotten the race they wanted. We'll see in a few days whether it's for real or not.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20110/07/2012

Another thought. It's been a while since we've heard about Virgil Goode, the "other" Republican on the ballot in Virginia. I haven't seen much reporting on him, lately - is he still going to be a Republican Nader in Virginia? Dems were so excited about him a few weeks ago.

It seems the election has come down to three things:

1. Win Florida

2. Win Ohio

3. Win 2 of these 3: Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin.

If Obama does any one of those, he wins. If Romney does all three, he wins.

The rest is pretty much noise. Gonna be a long month.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20210/07/2012

Rasmussen Trackingt [Romney +2]

Obama - 47

Romney - 49t


President Obama Job Approval [Approve +1]

Rasmussen Reportst

Approve - 50

Disapprove - 49


Sunday, October 07, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after the first presidential debate last Wednesday night.

The numbers reflect a modest debate bounce for Romney. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.

Scott Rasmussen’s weekly newspaper column notes that “incumbent presidents often struggle in the first debate and do better in the second. Ronald Reagan may be the greatest example of this.” Rasmussen wonders, “Does Obama have a comeback like that in him? We’ll find out on October 16.”

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20310/07/2012

I'm actually a little encouraged by the Rasmussen poll. I thought Romney would be up by 4 in the first Ras poll conducted fully after the debate. Instead he stayed at +2.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20410/07/2012

yeah, it is a wonder Ras doesn't have Romney up by five now, since his poll was conducted entirely post debate.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20510/07/2012

I am definitely encouraged by the Rasmussen poll, or should I say "relieved."

Looking forward to the post jobs announcement poll results.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20610/07/2012

Yes, I thought Romney would continue to rise in Rasmussen, so the fact that he didn't go up today may be a sign that the Romney bounce is over.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20710/07/2012

[quote]30 Days Out: Fundamentals Still Favor Obama

Oct. 7, 2012

1) Voters are feeling (somewhat) better about the economy and direction of the country.

2) Despite frustration with Obama, Romney is not seen as better able to handle the economy.

3) Electoral map is shrinking, not expanding.

4) Romney's image problem.

5) The Money Gap


VIDEO: Weekly Address From Obama at link:

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20810/07/2012

HuffPo has put Ohio back in play. The map looks awful.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 20910/07/2012

I'm not sure why you think that map is "awful" R209. I'd rather be Obama than Romney looking at that map. Obama is only 7 away from 270.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21010/07/2012

Also, if you look at the small print you'll see 241 Strong Obama vs 191 Strong Romney. Not "awful" from what I see.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21110/07/2012

It looks awful compared to last week perhaps. Even now Obama would win the electoral college if you accept all of these single polls. Give it a few days.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21210/07/2012

Just wait until the jobs report catches up to the polling.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21310/07/2012

Today's Daily Gallup poll: Obama 49% vs. Romney 46%.

Same as yesterday.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21410/07/2012

Word on the ground is that Team Obama is doing a great job of getting voters to the polls in OH and NC for early voting. They've been busing voters by the thousands. They're even renting buses in Illinois to drive to nearby states to help out. This is why that $181 million Obama raised last month is so important in the final stretch.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21510/07/2012

Indeed, R215. Money well raised and well spent!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21610/07/2012

Thank God for GOTV!


by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21710/07/2012

That is great news R215.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21810/07/2012

But illinois is not where they need to concentrate.

I want to see them do this in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Montana, New Hampshire, ...

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 21910/07/2012

O-H-I-O, R219.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22010/07/2012

Great new Team Obama ad using Romney's debate lies and lack of character against him.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22110/07/2012

FDR Predicted Mitt Romney:

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22210/07/2012

R221 that is an excellent ad!

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22310/07/2012

Romney is at his high point.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22410/07/2012

It really gets to the heart of Romney's MANY flaws as a candidate R223.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22510/07/2012

"But illinois is not where they need to concentrate."

They're not:

"They're even renting buses in Illinois to drive to nearby states to help out."

The buses are available in IL because no one needs them--hard to come by in IA MI OH & WI.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22610/07/2012

[quote] that is an excellent ad!

I wish they could have found better voices than nerdy MSNBC analysts like Ezra Klein and Steve Kornaci to make the argument that Romney is lying. That's probably not the best way to reach undecided voters.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22710/07/2012

Team Obama should spend the majority of his money on get-out-the-vote efforts. That's what makes the most difference. They should have buses lined up outside all of Obama and Biden's rallies to take voters to the polls. Turn it into a big voting party.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22810/07/2012

Well at this point it's probably good that no one has any expectation that Obama will do well in a debate. So if he does anything, it'll be a win. I hope he's now more serious about studying. No more studying sucks comments.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 22910/07/2012

Well the quotes in the ad from the various news sources saying that Romney lied will make up for the "nerd" factor.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23010/07/2012

It's odd that Obama is spending the first part of next week touring CA. Why would he be holding rallies in CA?

He's also done no prep yet for the next debate, unlike Romney who started this weekend. He held no campaign rallies this weekend, and spent all day yesterday celebrating his anniversary. Romney held rallies in FL.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23110/07/2012

Too bad he's got a country to run, R231.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23210/07/2012

R231, Obama is appearing at a fundraiser in California with Bill Clinton. Important not only for raising money, but for encouraging morale and solidarity and using Bill's popularity.

And Obama rarely takes time off from campaigning - he needs a break or he will become exhausted. So he's just taking a brief break. Romney has taken much more time off so far than Obama.

Btw, there are already changes being made to Obama's debating team. Axelrod is taking over Obama's debate preparation from Sen. Kerry.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23310/07/2012

Gallup Tracking [Obama +3]

Obama - 49

Romney - 46


President Obama Job Approvalt[Approve +2]


Approve - 48

Disapprove - 46t

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23410/07/2012

They need to hire the Honey Badger to stand in for Romney.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23510/07/2012

Thank you for the service you're doing here, Poll Troll. It's much appreciated. :)

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23610/07/2012

A second on what R236 said. I appreciate the information you provide as well as the cool headed approach.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23710/07/2012



Hochul (D) - 47

Collins (R) - 47


[quote]Race Even Despite District Favoring Romney & Rep. Control of House

With just over four weeks until Election Day, Democratic incumbent Representative Kathy Hochul and her Republican challenger Chris Collins are in a dead-even tie, with 47 percent of likely voters saying they plan to vote for each, according to a Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely 27th C.D. voters released today.

Mitt Romney leads President Obama 51-42 percent (little changed from 53-41 percent in August). By a margin of 53-41 percent (virtually unchanged from 54-40 percent), voters want to see Republicans control the House of Representatives.

“In seven weeks since the last Buffalo News/ WGRZ-TV/Siena College poll, the race for Congress is largely unchanged,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “What was a 47-45 percent race favoring Collins is now a dead-even contest with 47 percent of likely voters supporting each candidate.

“Both candidates continue to do well with voters in their own party, however, independent voters have flipped, now giving Hochul an eight-point lead after previously favoring Collins by six points. Erie County provides Hochul with a six-point edge after being even, while the other counties favor Collins 48-44 percent, up slightly from 46-44 percent. The gender gap has narrowed as Collins had led men by 16 points and now leads by seven, and Hochul had led women by 12 points and now leads by five,” Greenberg said.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23810/07/2012

thanks poll .

I have been trying to tell people not to panic yet .The polls will get better next week .I hope ....

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 23910/07/2012

Generic Congressional Vote [Democrats +1]

USA Today/Gallup

Democrats - 47

Republicans - 46t

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24010/07/2012

Nate Silver:

[quote]Looks like Romney got a ~3 point bounce from Denver, though today's polls a bit disappointing for him.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24110/07/2012

[quote]Nate Silver - Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling

Mitt Romney remains in a considerably stronger polling position than he was before last Wednesday’s debate in Denver. But the polls released on Sunday did not tell quite as optimistic a story for him as those in the debate’s immediate aftermath.

The four national tracking polls as published on Sunday were largely unchanged from their Saturday releases. Mr. Romney maintained a 2-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, but President Obama’s lead held at 2 points in an online poll published by Ipsos and at 3 points in the Gallup tracking poll. In the RAND Corporation’s online tracking poll, which lists its results to the decimal place, Mr. Obama’s lead declined incrementally, to 3.9 percentage points from 4.4 on Saturday.

Only the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll consists of interviews that were conducted entirely after the debate, but the share of post-debate interviews is now large enough in the other polls that we can start to come to some inferences about the overall magnitude of Mr. Romney’s bounce.

My effort to do that is reflected in the chart below. I’ve compared the most recent reading in each poll to the average result that the poll showed in the period between the Democratic convention and the Denver debate. I’ve also listed the approximate share of interviews in each poll that post-dated the debate.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24210/07/2012

Would people who are not the poll troll stop posting links and analysis, please. TIA.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24310/07/2012

Chart by Nate Silver:

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24410/07/2012


Public Policy Polling

Obama - 50

Romney - 47


[quote]Our new Virginia President poll is Obama 50, Romney 47. Just a slight shift toward Romney from 51/46 3 weeks ago

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24510/07/2012

[quote]Obama leads by 3 in Virginia

Raleigh, N.C. – - PPP's newest Virginia poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-47 in the state, down from a 51-46 advantage three weeks ago. This is the closest we've found the race in Virginia the entire cycle, but Obama continues to find himself at the critical 50% mark in a state where Romney probably can't afford to lose.

Romney's performance in the debate on Wednesday seems to have helped his image with Virginia voters. They think he won the debate by a 61/28 margin, including 71/17 with independents. Compared to our last poll he's seen a 10 point gain in his net favorability rating from -2 at 47/49 in mid-September to now +8 at 52/44. The problem for Romney is that most of that gain has come with Democrats, from 6/90 to 21/76. But still only 8% of those Democrats are actually voting for Romney. Much of the improvement in Romney's image is people going from hating Romney and voting for Obama to respecting Romney but still voting for Obama.

The reason the race hasn't moved much despite the improvement in Romney's image is that Obama's held steady over the last three weeks in spite of his poor debate performance. 3 weeks ago 50% of Virginians approved of him and 48% disapproved. Now 50% of Virginians approve of him and 48% disapprove. There's been no movement whatsoever in perceptions of his job performance.

Obama leads Romney 52-44 with women while keeping things about equal with men, trailing Romney just 49-48. Romney's up 57-40 with white voters, but would need to win them by a lot more than that to overcome Obama's 90-8 lead with African Americans and 59-34 advantage with other nonwhite voters. The future is looking bright for Democrats in Virginia with voters under 45 supporting Obama 59-38. The race is only close overall because of a 55-43 advantage for Romney with seniors.

“We’ve been calling Virginia Obama’s firewall state the entire cycle and this is just more evidence for it,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Even after one of his worst weeks of the campaign Obama continues to hold the lead there.”

PPP surveyed 725 likely Virginia voters from October 4th to 7th.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24610/07/2012

When is the next debate?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24710/08/2012

I am visiting in South Carolina and did not see many political ads, except one for a "compassionate conservative" and surprisingly one for Obama. I didn't think he'd be spending much time/money in the state at all.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24810/08/2012

CNN's making a huge deal out of today's PPP poll that shows Romney ahead 49-45 over Obama, they think this debate bump is enormously significant. The MSM are dying for a horserace.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 24910/08/2012

And CNN is ignoring the Gallup Poll that shows Obama up by 5 over Romney. Non-biased, non-partisan reporting there.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25010/08/2012

Obama is going to have to come on strong in the next debate because Romney's tied him with women voters and that's not good.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25110/08/2012

R251 - Romney is not tied with Obama among women voters.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25210/08/2012

r252, Romney is tied with Obama among white women over 65...

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25310/08/2012

White women over 65 is not women in general.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25410/08/2012

If OBama loses, Nate Silver should resign from the NYTimes because his statistical hocus pocus will have been proven to be not particularly relevant to political races. His nerdy confidence in his stats don't mean a hill of beans in something as fickle and aesthetic as politics. He doesn't factor in all the cosmetic things that sway voters, such as debate performances, gaffes, ads, and raw hatred.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25510/08/2012

R255 - you are very mistaken. Obama may win or he may lose, but Silver's models have little to do with that. Suppose there's about a 25 percent chance of rain on Sunday. Do you blame the weather forecaster if it should rain on Sunday?

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25610/08/2012

R255, Nate Silver's model has shown a lead for Obama all year because . . . Obama has had a lead all year.

Nate Silver's model now shows a decrease in Obama's odds of winning because . . . Obama has gone down in the polls.

Nate Silver will adjust his model accordingly and most likely determine in the coming weeks who will accurately win.

by 2012 Poll Trollreply 25710/08/2012
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