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The EU banking crisis, re: Greece and Ireland by way of France and Germany, or how I learned to start worrying about the deficit

In deference to the poster who wanted a politics thread, I will post this inside.

by Anonymousreply 7107/05/2015

I landed on an analysis of the protests and unrest in parts of the EU that contained the most astonishingly simple breakdown of why it's happening, and I had an epiphany of how to put it elementary terms.

Assume you have excellent credit, make $100k after taxes, and live in a life style that requires $112K each year of expenditures.

Assuming raises, no sweat, you're a star. Young, vibrant, free-spirited, and popular. You have a 1M house, 3 90K cars (one for weekends), a 40K a year drug/golf/racing habit, and round the clock staffing coming in at 20K, health care and retirement at around 20K---all financed in short term, variable rate debt.

%C2%A0A shakeup comes along, though, and circumstances leave your normal 100K a year a little...short. The banks that had been financing are starting to turn a side eye at your finances. %C2%A0But, you have enough big bank friends that will keep you in funds until things get better.

Too bad they're also getting fronted money at this point...and then somebody runs a little short on change. %C2%A0The bank friends have been trying to impress their friends a little more, loan them a little more since times are good. The VPs were are all for it, since they were getting their cut.

When the big boss started noticing something was wrong, and started investigating, and then began nailing the suckers as criminal, even the board of directors couldn't stop them from getting fired. %C2%A0Too bad it was replicated in every bank, and every board got fired. And people found out their debts, and promises of returns, were so out of whack they filed bankruptcy, and many were prosecuted.

Oh, and yeah- I wasn't talking about Greece or the EU.%C2%A0

by Anonymousreply 106/03/2011

Could you post that again in English?

by Anonymousreply 206/03/2011

"My honest opinion is that we have gone so far down the road that there is only two outcomes now. You can continue QE to infinity as Jim Sinclair says, and that will lead to some form of hyperinflation or you can sort of go cold turkey and that will lead to a depression that will make the %E2%80%9930%E2%80%99s look like a picnic. When you think about it, that is an awful set of choices."

by Anonymousreply 306/03/2011

In college level English, R1, so get your dictionary.

by Anonymousreply 406/03/2011

R3, the US economy is caught between Scylla and Charybdis, and there will be pain no matter what road is taken.

by Anonymousreply 506/05/2011

Bump for the zero hedge DLr.

by Anonymousreply 606/06/2011

The euro, and possibly the EU, were finished today. Sarkozy and Merkel both gave speeches where they said that "plans for an exit" were in place and that some countries may drop the euro. Rumor is that Germany is planning to return to the DM.

by Anonymousreply 711/09/2011

Bumping so that some of the people that still think the euro is going to survive can see, in elementary terms, why it is dead.

by Anonymousreply 811/09/2011

I'm shocked Paul hasn't chimed in!

by Anonymousreply 911/09/2011

Keep fucking that chicken, Idiot Libertarian R7.

You were spouting exactly the same bullshit six months ago, and little has changed since then. Greece was a mess then, and is still a mess now. They might drop Greece from the Eurozone, but your DM rumors are as tired as they're insane.

by Anonymousreply 1011/09/2011

From ZeroHedge-

Back in June, which now seems like a lifetime ago, we wrote an article titled: "A Few Good Hedge Funds May Have Called The ECB's Bluff, And Hold The Future Of The EUR Hostage" in which we discussed the weakest link in the Eurozone bailout and in which we warned, rather prophetically as it turns out, "that not only is Bailout #2 in jeopardy of not passing the Greek parliament, but that we may suddenly find ourselves in the biggest "activist" investor drama, in which voluntary restructuring "hold out" hedge funds will settle for Cheapest to Delivery or else demand a trillion pounds of flesh from the ECB in order to keep the eurozone afloat. In other words, the drama is about to get very, very real. And, most ironically, a tiny David is about to flip the scales on the mammoth Goliath of the ECB and hold the entire European experiment hostage..." Why prophetic? Because the FT has just reported that "One of the most prominent hedge funds holding Greek bonds has threatened legal action against officials negotiating the country’s debt restructuring if losses are too deep, raising a hurdle to eurozone leaders’ hopes of quickly reducing the country’s debt levels." Well, Vega may not be quite the David we envisioned but it will do. The bottom line is that the weakest link in the Eurozone rescue, precisely the one we predicted over six months ago, has now been exposed. We fully expect other "activist" funds to be buying up or have already bought up the debt of the other PIIGS, and hold the future of the Eurozone ransom for the princely sum of 1 million dollars.... Or realistically, much, much more. Oh, and so much for ISDA's carefully conceived plan of a "voluntary" restructuring - should Vega proceed to indeed sue Greece it is game over for the worst laid plan of mice and corrupt derivatives organizations.

by Anonymousreply 1112/21/2011

Back in June, which now seems like a lifetime ago, we wrote an article titled: "A Few Good Hedge Funds May Have Called The ECB's Bluff, And Hold The Future Of The EUR Hostage" in which we discussed the weakest link in the Eurozone bailout and in which we warned, rather prophetically as it turns out, "that not only is Bailout #2 in jeopardy of not passing the Greek parliament, but that we may suddenly find ourselves in the biggest "activist" investor drama, in which voluntary restructuring "hold out" hedge funds will settle for Cheapest to Delivery or else demand a trillion pounds of flesh from the ECB in order to keep the eurozone afloat. In other words, the drama is about to get very, very real. And, most ironically, a tiny David is about to flip the scales on the mammoth Goliath of the ECB and hold the entire European experiment hostage..." Why prophetic? Because the FT has just reported that "One of the most prominent hedge funds holding Greek bonds has threatened legal action against officials negotiating the country’s debt restructuring if losses are too deep, raising a hurdle to eurozone leaders’ hopes of quickly reducing the country’s debt levels." Well, Vega may not be quite the David we envisioned but it will do. The bottom line is that the weakest link in the Eurozone rescue, precisely the one we predicted over six months ago, has now been exposed. We fully expect other "activist" funds to be buying up or have already bought up the debt of the other PIIGS, and hold the future of the Eurozone ransom for the princely sum of 1 million dollars.... Or realistically, much, much more. Oh, and so much for ISDA's carefully conceived plan of a "voluntary" restructuring - should Vega proceed to indeed sue Greece it is game over for the worst laid plan of mice and corrupt derivatives organizations.

by Anonymousreply 1212/21/2011

Looks like its over

by Anonymousreply 1312/23/2011

David McWilliams (of Punk Economics) begins his latest excellent discussion by conjuring Clint Eastwood and noting that when it comes to the Fiscal Compact in Europe "they are pissing down our backs and telling us that it is raining".

The Fiscal Compact will NOT strengthen the Euro but in fact by cementing the austerity agenda into law it will make the political environment even more unstable. The Irishman goes on to discuss why Europe is imploding as he insightfully notes that "financial panics do not cause the destruction of wealth, financial panics merely tell you the extent to which wealth has been destroyed by reckless speculation". The realization that current account deficits and not budget deficits were always the problem in Europe which leaves the fiscal compact akin to a doctor prescribing chemotherapy for heart disease. McWilliams explains why France has seen such a change and why the fiscal compact has nothing to do with the Euro but is all about reassuring the German electorate that they will be protected from the consequences of a monetary union that they were bounced into in the nineties; as they are terrified of 'Peripheraid' - the constant drip-drip feeding of German cash to the periphery.

Critically, driving to his final discussion of how the Irish should vote on the referendum - remembering that the German elites want a Federal Republic of Europe and that the entire union is in the midst of a massive negotiation - he lays out in cartoon simplicity why Germany is stuck with a massive personal interest in 'cleaning up the EU neighborhood'. Ireland should not give up cheaply in the referendum 'poker match' as all nations try and figure out who the sucker at the table is. Must-watch clip to comprehend the 'game' occurring in Europe and how it is changing recently.

by Anonymousreply 1405/18/2012

The head of Greece's radical left party is throwing down a gauntlet that could increase tensions between Greece and its European creditors, reports WSJ.

Alexis Tsipras, the 37-year-old head of the Coalition of the Radical Left, known as Syriza, and potentially the country's next prime minister says he sees little chance Europe will cut off funding to the country but that if it does, Greece will stop paying its debts.

He's right!! At this point, its hard to see the EZ cutting Greece off. The EZ is run by the banksters and Greece owes the money to the banksters. On a more long-term basis, Greece will likely get tossed from the EZ. Greek demands are just over the top.

 Tsipras said, Europe must consider a more growth-oriented policy  [Translation: More ECB money printing, with the printed money going to Greece] to arrest Greece's spiraling recession and address what he called a growing "humanitarian crisis" facing the country.

The Germans won't stand for this. The banksters may have German Chancellor Angela Merkel under control, but she will be bounced out of office next year, if the Greeks are bailed out once again and given newly printed euros "to get their economy going."

by Anonymousreply 1505/18/2012

In a newly released report, the IMF says:

The steady outflows – a major deposit run has been avoided – appear driven by private sector dissaving as well as by capital flight to safe-havens outside of Greece (the latter representing about a quarter of total withdrawals)....Â

The Eurosystem has stepped into the breach and by end-2011 had provided nearly €130bn (or 60 per cent of GDP) in support. Initial heavy reliance on Eurosystem liquidity support (with Eurosystem exposure peaking at €103bn in mid-2011) is gradually being replaced by Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) from the Bank of Greece (BoG). The switch to ELA is imposing additional costs on banks, as the interest rate and fees are higher than under the ECB window, but this remains an inexpensive form of financing for banks.

If this slow motion run continues, the European Central Bank and eurozone lender swill have to either pump in more money , even without a new government in place, or stop the money printing, which would force Greece to leave the eurozone and start printing drachma. Of course, if things occur too suddenly, before Greece is prepared to print, there is a chance a free market money could develop alongside the euros left in Greece, at least for the short-term. It would be anybody's guess as to what that money would be. The free market can get pretty creative.

by Anonymousreply 1605/18/2012

I was looking through my old threads and saw this one, from almost a year ago.

At least the mainstream media is starting to finally admit, obliquely, that Greece might have to leave the euro, and might have to default, and might cause an implosion in the EU economy as Spain and Italy and Ireland (or Germany) exit.

Oh, wait, they haven't gotten that far. But, that is the endgame.

by Anonymousreply 1705/18/2012

Learn to love the deficit, money is cheap!

by Anonymousreply 1805/18/2012

Ha, today Merkel had to backtrack and say that she did not threaten the Greek PM, and that Greece can leave the EZone if it wishes.

by Anonymousreply 1905/19/2012

Why would Greece want to leave? They get all the handouts they want when they remain in the EU.

I just don't get the EU trading business angle. A proper bouncer set up type of investigation would have easily discovered that most of the countries that want to join are in no financial shape to turn the EU in a power trade alliance. By allowing the deadbeat riff raff into the EU the main contributors shot themselves in the foot.

by Anonymousreply 2005/19/2012

It's a matter of 'when' not 'if' now for Greece. Attention is now turning to Spain.

by Anonymousreply 2105/19/2012

Yes, R20 and R21, the Greek FinMin has essentially said that unless the ECB prints a few trillion euros for Greece then it will just walk away. If Greece defaults, it will be bad for the banks and various governments that hold debt, but not devastating.

The devastation will come as Spain and Italy begin their exit. Such large defaults will bring down every major bank in the world, and the elites in the US, China, and the EU are scared shitless by that fact.

As soon as Greece exits, it will be a matter of months (or weeks) before the EZ and euro are history. Too bad it has taken 2 years for the rest of the morons to realize this.

by Anonymousreply 2205/19/2012

R20- also, don't forget the crucial role Goldman Sucks played in "cooking" Greece's books to get in the EU.

Will they ever be prosecuted? Not under this administration.

by Anonymousreply 2305/19/2012

Part of me thinks it might be better for Democrats if Obama loses in November. Let Romney preside over the economic carnage that is sure to ensue once the EU collapses. The Repubs will continue to press for more austerity and tax cuts which will sink our country into a depression.

Democrats then win back both houses of Congress, and Hillary easily sweeps into the White House in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 2405/19/2012

[quote] Let Romney preside over the economic carnage that is sure to ensue once the EU collapses

The Eurozone is collapsing - not the EU.

Two different things!

by Anonymousreply 2505/19/2012

The last time Greece faced a crisis of this magnitude was in 490 BC when the armies and fleets of the Persian Empire were converging on Athens.

The great Athenian leader Themistocles rallied his countrymen and defeated the Persians.

Alas, this time Greece has no Themistocles to save the embattled nation. Unlike the incompetent Persian Emperor Darius, the Greeks now face Germany’s very tough, stern and able Frau Doktor Angela Merkel who has vowed to impose "zucht und ordnung" (order and discipline) on the unruly Greeks. "Get a government," she is telling them.

A potentially fatal run on Greeks banks is underway, with over 800 million euros withdrawn last week. The sky is indeed falling.

Who can blame Greek depositors? Default and an exit from the euro zone appear likely, meaning their money in Greece’s wobbly banks could end up being converted into re-born drachma, worthy only 50-30% of the euro.

Greece’s recent political turmoil and inability to form a government shows its voters want the benefits of staying in the euro zone, but don’t want to pay their dues through taxes and slashing deficits.

New elections scheduled for 17 June are unlikely to resolve this Greek drama. Leftist parties that stoutly reject the austerity program agreed upon by the last government in Athens are leading the polls.

On top of this, Greeks, who look way down on their neighboring Turks and Albanians, have to suffer through watching these nations grow and manage their finances pretty well. Maybe Turkish financial advisors for Greece?

Angela Merkel insists Greece will stay in the euro. But that’s more hope than fact. German voters are in no mood to bail out the happy-go-lucky Greeks or swallow more austerity, judging from last week’s important regional vote in North Rhine-Westphalia. French voters said the same thing last week when they elected moderate Socialist Francois Hollande.

What would happen to Greece if it quit the euro? Financial chaos, capital flight, riots, and bank failures. But after the apocalypse, Greece would eventually revert to its 1960’s status: a poor but proud nation living off tourism, shipping, agriculture and fishing.

Devaluing a new drachma won’t do much for a nation whose main export is olives and feta cheese. Besides, the Greeks have severely damaged their tourist industry by endless strikes and surly service.

Angela Merkel is rightly concerned that Greece’s exit from the euro would be a blow to Europe’s political unity. This aspect of the crisis is as important as the economic/financial dimension.

But Merkel should also recall the timeless dictum of Prussia’s king and renowned general, Frederick the Great: "he who defends everything, defends nothing."

Greece should never have been admitted to the euro. It snuck into the currency union by hiring those miscreants at Goldman Sachs to falsify its financial books.

Admitting Greece to the euro zone was a bridge too far. Euro membership should be limited to those nations that have solid finances and honest reporting. In short, a club of northern European nations that follow Germanic good government. Unprepared nations, like Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Moldova or Ukraine do not belong in the euro zone. Most have no business in the EU either.

The European Union and euro zone expanded too far, too fast. Retrenchment is now in order. As the French say, "fall back to better leap forward."

Amidst this crisis, what many forget is that it was caused by politicians borrowing too much to buy votes and shady bankers lending recklessly to boost their own bonuses.

If there is one thing we learn from the Euromess it is the Golden Rule: governments must raise any and all funds they spend.

Borrowing from the money lenders is poison. More empires and nations have been ruined by unsustainable borrowing than by wars. Politicians should not be allowed to borrow except for well-defined, long-term projects, likes roads or bridges, in which revenue streams and repayment schedules are clearly defined.

There’s not much the western leaders can do right now to save Greece in spite of the G8 summit meeting at Camp David, Maryland, this weekend. More important, Spain’s banks, who loaned vastly too much to property developers, are threatening to go down like dominos. Portugal and Italy are showing severe strain. The debt chickens are homing to roost.

President Barack Obama keeps urging more debt creation in a vain effort to resolve the crisis brought on by too much debt in the first place. The real answer is that nations that erected a house of financial cards must go through a long, painful period of rehabilitation and fiscal dieting to break debt addiction.

May 19, 2012

Eric Margolis [send him mail] is the author of War at the Top of the World and the new book, American Raj: Liberation or Domination?: Resolving the Conflict Between the West and the Muslim World. See his website.

by Anonymousreply 2605/19/2012

The Greek Islands will be dirt cheap as a vacation spot again. I remember how inexpensive it was before they converted to the Euro. You used to be able to spend a week there for a $1000.

Hell, all of Europe will be a cheap travel destination.

by Anonymousreply 2705/19/2012

I know, R27. I went there for my 19th birthday in 1991, and my friend and I spent 6 weeks in the islands for around 1K each. I came out 6 months later.

I went back with my BF 2 years ago, and I was shocked at how much more expensive it had become. Same with Prague and Tuscany.

The massive money printing has caused inflationary pressures that will destroy the life of the average Greek (and Spaniard, and Italian, and American...) and the banks and FED are 100% responsible.

by Anonymousreply 2805/19/2012

I think the right wing guy leader in Greece said if it was up to him Greece would not pay back its debt.

by Anonymousreply 2905/19/2012

I plan to go to Mykonos and Santorini next summer to take advantage of the low prices if they go back to the Drakma.

by Anonymousreply 3005/19/2012

R29, that's why the banksters selected the current PM, even if he is publicly anti-euro.

It's the FinMin that has thrown a wrench into the works. Hollande is about to do the same.

by Anonymousreply 3105/19/2012

This graphic shows who owes what to whom.

If Greece defaults it's not going to be a biggie - but if Spain, Italy or Ireland default it will have a big impact on the likes of France and the UK.

The amount of debt the US owes is huge (and it doesn't include China).

by Anonymousreply 3205/19/2012

Unemployment in the 17-country euro currency bloc hit another record in May.

The highest unemployment rate across the eurozone was recorded in Spain, where 24.6% of people were out of work in May.

Even more dramatically, 52.1% of the country's youth were unemployed. Greece's youth unemployment rate also stands at 52.1% at last count in March.

"But the story you hear all the time — of a stagnant economy in which high taxes and generous social benefits have undermined incentives, stalling growth and innovation — bears little resemblance to the surprisingly positive facts. The real lesson from Europe is actually the opposite of what conservatives claim: Europe is an economic success, and that success shows that social democracy works."-

-Paul Krugman, Jan 10,2010

by Anonymousreply 3307/02/2012

The only reason the Euro is in trouble is because the US currency is still considered the world currency. (Witness the current war in the middle east, launched against countries who wanted to start trading Oil in non US denominations)

If the world ever drops the US dollar, it will fall a heck of a lot faster than the Euro, because the underlying fundamentals are considerably worse. So don't gloat too much USA.

by Anonymousreply 3407/02/2012

[quote]Why would Greece want to leave? They get all the handouts they want when they remain in the EU.

Kind of like Poz-'mos and their need for free meds for a disease that's 100% preventable

by Anonymousreply 3507/02/2012

We've been waiting for the other shoe to drop in Greece for a long time.

by Anonymousreply 3607/03/2012

And it continues, getting worse week by week.

by Anonymousreply 3707/22/2012

The best solution is for the North (Germany, Austria, Holland, maybe France) to ditch the euro and adopt the mark. It won't be pretty, and guarantees a nasty recession, but it's better than any of the alternatives.

by Anonymousreply 3807/22/2012

We've also been waiting for that hyperinflation that's arriving ANY DAY NOW, and will force us to use our gold coins to buy corn flakes.

by Anonymousreply 3907/22/2012

Who has a higher debt to GDP ratio, Japan or Greece. Japan, that's who. Japan is not in crisis; indeed, the yen is appreciating. So what's all the fuss about? A few years ago Greece and Spain had the gall to elect socialist governments. This is a political attack on those countries for that reason. Now that France has gone socialist, it will also be attacked. It's the last gasp of a failed system: conservative economics. When they lose the USA (not obama, it will have to be 4 years hence) the whole era of crisis will end.

by Anonymousreply 4007/24/2012

It is bad enough when any economy sees its yield curve turn negative, i.e. its short-term rates become higher than its long-term rates, but it is really bad if that economy is already in the middle of a financial crisis with all rates moving higher.

Spanish bonds have almost turned negative. The debt is now trading above 7% all the way DOWN to the 3 YEAR MATURITY. This is very serious. It means even short-term financing will be very expensive for the Spanish government.


At 7% interest if you borrow €100 today, you will owe €200 in ten years.Â

Does anyone seriously think Spain (or Greece, or Italy, or France) will be able to pay back the hundreds of billions (actually trillions) that they need to borrow in order to finance their current expenditures? That if they do repay it will be in currency worth far less than it is worth today, and that coupled with taxes it will make their actual returns on investment negative?

No, the only people buying this debt are big banks betting that the government prints more money.

As former OMB director David Stockman explains-

"This market isn't real. The two percent on the ten-year, the ninety basis points on the five-year, thirty basis points on a one-year – those are medicated, pegged rates created by the Fed and which fast-money traders trade against as long as they are confident the Fed can keep the whole market rigged. Nobody in their right mind wants to own the ten-year bond at a two percent interest rate. But they're doing it because they can borrow overnight money for free, ten basis points, put it on repo, collect 190 basis points a spread, and laugh all the way to the bank. And they will keep laughing all the way to the bank on Wall Street until they lose confidence in the Fed's ability to keep the yield curve pegged where it is today. If the bond ever starts falling in price, they unwind the carry trade. Then you get a message, "Do not pass go." Sell your bonds, unwind your overnight debt, your repo positions. And the system then begins to contract...The Fed has destroyed the money market. It has destroyed the capital markets. They have something that you can see on the screen called an "interest rate." That isn't a market price of money or a market price of five-year debt capital. That is an administered price that the Fed has set and that every trader watches by the minute to make sure that he's still in a positive spread. And you can't have capitalism if the capital markets are dead, if the capital markets are simply a branch office – branch casino – of the central bank. That's essentially what we have today."

by Anonymousreply 4107/24/2012

From 2002-

Our government intervention in the economy and in the private affairs of citizens, and the internal affairs of foreign countries, leads to uncertainty and many unintended consequences. Here are some of the consequences about which we should be concerned.

I predict U.S. taxpayers will pay to rebuild Palestine, both the West Bank and the Gaza, as well as Afghanistan. U.S. taxpayers paid to bomb these areas, so we will be expected to rebuild them.

Peace, of sorts, will come to the Middle East, but will be short-lived. There will be big promises of more U.S. money and weapons flowing to Israel and to Arab countries allied with the United States.

U.S. troops and others will be used to monitor the "peace."

In time, an oil boycott will be imposed, with oil prices soaring to historic highs.


Current Israeli-United States policies will solidify Arab Muslim nations in their efforts to avenge the humiliation of the Palestinians. That will include those Muslim nations that in the past have fought against each other.

(the ongoing EU/USGov supported and funded "Arab Spring")

Some of our moderate Arab allies will be overthrown by Islamic fundamentalists.


The U.N. will continue to condemn, through resolutions, Israeli-U.S. policies in the Middle East, and they will be ignored.

Some European countries will clandestinely support the Muslim countries and their anti-Israel pursuits.


China, ironically assisted by American aid, much more openly will sell to militant Muslims the weapons they want, and will align herself with the Arab nations.

The United States, with Tony Blair as head cheerleader, will attack Iraq without proper authority, and a major war, the largest since World War II, will result.

Major moves will be made by China, India, Russia, and Pakistan in Central Asia to take advantage of the chaos for the purpose of grabbing land, resources, and strategic advantages sought after for years.

The Karzai government will fail, and U.S. military presence will end in Afghanistan.

An international dollar crisis will dramatically boost interest rates in the United States.

(just wait)

Price inflation, with a major economic downturn, will decimate U.S. Federal Government finances, with exploding deficits and uncontrolled spending.

(have you bought bread, milk, eggs, meat, etc.)

Federal Reserve policy will continue at an expanding rate, with massive credit expansion, which will make the dollar crisis worse. Gold will be seen as an alternative to paper money as it returns to its historic role as money.

(gold 2002- $300, gold 2012- $1600)

Erosion of civil liberties here at home will continue as our government responds to political fear in dealing with the terrorist threat by making generous use of the powers obtained with the Patriot Act.

(NDAA, drones, random checks)

The draft will be reinstated, causing domestic turmoil and resentment.

(just wait, unless liberals wake up and realize the Democrats are just Republicans who pretend to care about the little people)

Many American military personnel and civilians will be killed in the coming conflict.

(how many dead kids now?)

The leaders of whichever side loses the war will be hauled into and tried before the International Criminal Court for war crimes. The United States will not officially lose the war, but neither will we win. Our military and political leaders will not be tried by the International Criminal Court.

The Congress and the President will shift radically toward expanding the size and scope of the Federal Government. This will satisfy both the liberals and the conservatives.

Military and police powers will grow, satisfying the conservatives. The welfare state, both domestic and international, will expand, satisfying the liberals. Both sides will endorse military adventurism overseas.

This is the most important of my predictions: Policy changes could prevent all of the previous predictions from occurring. Unfortunately, that will not occur. In due course, the Constitution will continue to be steadily undermined and the American Republic further weakened.

During the next decade, the American people will become poorer and less free, while they become more dependent on the government for economic security.

The war will prove to be divisive, with emotions and hatred growing between the various factions and special interests that drive our policies in the Middle East.

Agitation from more class warfare will succeed in dividing us domestically, and believe it or not, I expect lobbyists will thrive more than ever during the dangerous period of chaos.

I have no timetable for these predictions, but just in case, keep them around and look at them in 5 to 10 years. Let us hope and pray that I am wrong on all accounts. If so, I will be very pleased.

by Anonymousreply 4207/26/2012

I'm curious-

How many people here think they don't pay enough in taxes, or do not have enough regulations at every level of society, or think we do not spend enough on foreign wars and domestic spying, or that inflation is too low, or that the big banks need more support?

All of those things are intimately related, and you can't eliminate one without the others.

by Anonymousreply 4307/26/2012

Here we are, years after the crisis started, and still no solution.

They are kicking the can, but the can is getting heavier and they are getting weaker. Soon the can will explode.

by Anonymousreply 4409/10/2012

Over a year later, and things are still fucked up.

But, the government is doing what it can to make things better!!!

by Anonymousreply 4509/27/2012

Woohoo, it's another freeper thread bump.

by Anonymousreply 4609/27/2012

R46, I bumped it because it's true. Freeper? I'm far more liberal than you.

by Anonymousreply 4709/27/2012

Is Greece fixed?

by Anonymousreply 4801/12/2013

Shithad @ r48, stop bumping dead threads or you're getting flagged!

by Anonymousreply 4901/12/2013

I got in a fight with an Irish person in 2008. I always feel a slight sense of satisfaction with the Irish problems.

by Anonymousreply 5001/12/2013

[quote]Is Greece fixed?

No, dear, it's not, but that's because they are trying for *your* solution to the problems. Note how your solution is failing everywhere in the world it's being tried, dear?

by Anonymousreply 5101/12/2013

Why did the threads that showed the utter ignorance of Paul Krugman get deleted?

by Anonymousreply 5201/12/2013

Credit expansion is the governments foremost tool in their struggle against the market economy. In their hands it is the magic wand designed to conjure away the scarcity of capital goods, to lower the rate of interest or to abolish it altogether, to finance lavish government spending, to expropriate the capitalists, to contrive everlasting booms, and to make everybody prosperous.

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.

But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against 'real' goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last.

by Anonymousreply 5301/12/2013

The unemployment rate in Greece is 27%, youth unemployment is 58%, and they're in debt 170% of GDP. How they plan to recover from that is anybody's guess.

by Anonymousreply 5401/12/2013


Telling the Banksters to FUCK OFF is a start.

"Austerity" is just a way for the Big Banksters to rape the Greeks----and not in the good way!

Spain, Portugal, Italy- all of then are in the same boat. Eventually it wil capsize, so the Big Banks want their Vig.

Google LUDWIG VON MISES or MURRAY ROTHBARD if you want to know more, or read Henry Hazzlitt "ECONOMICS IN ONE LESSON" and you will understand why these "crises" REALLY happen.

by Anonymousreply 5501/12/2013

No Euro crisis and California was ranked dead last and having the worst economic crisis. Now with Democrat Jerry Brown, the state has a surplus of money and swimming in revenue, in just ONE year.

Looks like the economist know, NOTHING.

by Anonymousreply 5601/12/2013

Is the EU fixed?

by Anonymousreply 5701/28/2013

Things in France must not be very serious, because the French labor minister accidentally let the truth come out a little earlier today. As the Telegraph reports, France's labour minister sent the country into a state of shock on Monday after he described the nation as “totally bankrupt."

Remember: France is one of the supposedly stable countries in Europe.

"Michel Sapin made the gaffe in a radio interview, which left French President Francois Hollande battling to undo the potential reputational damage. "There is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state,” Mr Sapin said. “That is why we had to put a deficit reduction plan in place, and nothing should make us turn away from that objective." It appears that once one wipes out the propaganda and the smooth politico talk, things are bad and getting worse at Europe's core. "Data from Banque de France showed earlier this month that a flight of capital has already left the country amid concerns that France’s Socialist leader intends to soak the rich and businesses. The actor Gérard Depardieu has renounced his French citizenship and decamped to Russia in protest, while David Cameron said Britain will “roll out the red carpet” to attract wealthy individuals. Pierre Moscovici, the finance minister, said the comments by Mr Sapin were “inappropriate”." At least France can hike the tax on the millionaires to 75% to generate more money. Oh wait, no it can't.

But if capital is leaving France, where is it going? The FT has the answer:

Almost €100bn of private funds flowed back into the eurozone’s periphery late last year after action by the European Central Bank encouraged reinvestment in the crisis-hit countries.

The scale of the net inflows, equivalent to about 9 per cent of the economic output of Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Greece according to calculations by ING, the Dutch bank, highlight the revival in investor confidence in Europe’s monetary union after Mario Draghi, ECB president, pledged to preserve its integrity.

The return of capital has encouraged policy makers to believe the eurozone crisis is over, with Mr Draghi this month pointing to “positive contagion” in the region. The euro has also moved sharply higher.

by Anonymousreply 5801/29/2013

[quote]Is the EU fixed?

No, dear, because they're employing the solution you favor: austerity. Sadly for you, and for them, it isn't working. Perhaps you could buy a clue one of these days/

by Anonymousreply 5901/29/2013


Until they tell the banks to fuck off, and cut taxes and government spending they will continue to die.

by Anonymousreply 6001/29/2013

Is this the end?

by Anonymousreply 6101/17/2015

Tsipras doesnt want Greece to pay its debts. Such a good idea, I will stop paying my debts as well. Yaay Greece, cradle of civilization who got Socrates poisoned.

by Anonymousreply 6201/17/2015


by Anonymousreply 6301/25/2015

I fixded it!

by Anonymousreply 6401/25/2015

Greece has what like 12 million people and the EU has like what, 400 million? No way even if Greece defaulted would it effect much.

Greece cannot leave the Euro without leaving the EU and that won't happen.

The EU would be better off without Greece. In fact it expanded far too fast. Romania, Bulgaria, the parts of Yugoslavia and Slovakia and all the Baltics aren't ready for the EU and Cyprus and Malta should be thrown out.

by Anonymousreply 6501/26/2015

This is relevant to today.

by Anonymousreply 6606/29/2015

Democracy in Greece? Bah!

by Anonymousreply 6707/04/2015

R64, fank you!

by Anonymousreply 6807/04/2015

From 4 years ago.

by Anonymousreply 6907/05/2015

Did the world economy collapse when Thailand imploded? When Argentina did? I don't really understand why there is so much hand-wringing about Greece. The ECB and Germans have always been flat out wrong in their handling of the situation.

by Anonymousreply 7007/05/2015

Fuck the ILT and his bumping four-year-old threads.


by Anonymousreply 7107/05/2015
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