Social Security has now passed Medicare as the most pressing insolvency risk among the twin pillars of America's social safety net, according to new government reports. But both programs are still on pace to run dry next decade.
The 2024 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports, however, did offer a glimmer of good news for Social Security and a jolt of good news for Medicare.
Social Security's key reserve is projected to run low first, in just nine years' time. By 2033 — the same annual deadline as last year's estimate — the program may only be able to pay out 79% of benefits to seniors unless lawmakers act.
A short reprieve until 2035 might be possible if a second Social Security fund is factored in but that would require a change in the law. Last year's report saw that hypothetical combined fund running low slightly earlier, in 2034.
The news for Medicare, meanwhile, was strikingly positive. A stronger-than-expected economy and moderating healthcare costs could keep that program solvent until 2036.
That's a jump of five years from estimates of where the program stood last year. Just two years ago there was a fear of that program running low as early as 2028.
As Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, summarized it: "We’re less than a decade away from a massive solvency crisis that would slash benefits for over 67 million seniors and severely limit their access to health care soon after."