Will Alec Baldwin serve jail time?

Nope.

Yes. Unless he gets smart and manages a plea deal. If this was years ago, I'd say a jury will favor him, but he's lost a lot of good will over time.

This trial is going to be nuts. Hilaria will drag the whole brood out there and find reasons to land in the press.

I don't see how you combine the producer factor into the verdict unless you charge all the producers. The fact that he skipped training and rushed things that day will not go in his favor, and I doubt they'll be able to prove the gun can fire without pulling the trigger.

Too many variables to predict how a jury will sway. If they do find him guilty, I highly suspect the judge will want to wipe the smug off his face.

He should really consider how much negative info will come out during the trial, and how that will impact his career. He's already on the thinnest of ice PR wise and likely in his personal life as well. There's a very real risk of very real jail, and he's not cut out for it.

He could easily come up with a line about "My beautiful family is in NYC, and I do not wish to disrupt their lives by an ongoing court battle on the other side of the country. While I will always maintain my innocence, ice made the difficult choice to accept a plea deal so that I can return my focus to my young family." Then swallow his pride and move on with life.

I say this as someone who wants to believe the best in Alec and who feels the blame is almost all on the armorer for missing the very crucial first step.

He was offered a plea but couldn't keep his mouth shut and it was withdrawn. The man is an idiot.

He's fucked. His toxic personality may have finally caught up with him. It's precisely due to how he treats people that this shit even happened. Anyone else would have hired a competent armorer / had someone competent willing to work for him (as EP of the production) and given a shit about on set safety. This is all on him. It's the cumulative result of thinking you're better than everybody.