How high will gold go?

Gold has surged in the last week, and despite pullback today it is still up over 5% this month.\ \ It has quadrupled since 2000. If you put $250k in gold in 1999, you would be a millionaire.\ \ Since QE2, the latest government scam to "save the economy", is going to start after the November elections, many are predicting it will go even higher by the end of the year. As we print more dollars, and flood the economy with more cash, some of it will end up in gold.\ \ Where will it end up? $10k/oz? $20k/oz? $50k/oz? Or will it bust and end up as worthless as the US dollar?

http://www.thedailybell.com/1458/The-Golden-Bubble.html



• Full disclosure-\ \ I invested almost all my savings in gold in the early 2000s, so I have a vested interest in it going higher!

  OP

• Not really OP, you first have to factor in the 11 years of transportation/storage/insurance/security of the gold, then you sell the gold. There''s a 10-20% cut from even the cheapest broker. So you are looking at a 100% profit. There is far better ways of doubling your money.

• [quote]There is far better ways of doubling your money\ \ Care to share how?

  curious

• R2, I have over 100 gold coins in a safe deposit box at the bank. That has cost me less than 2k, and the coins were bought at spot price plus shipping/insurance.\ \ At an original cost of around $3-350 per coin, that is nearly 350% return. Math is easy!

• I have 3 grams of gold I bought from a friend in a bind about 2 years ago. I paid $60 for them. \ \ They''re now over $129 in value. At this rate 3 grams will be worth a quarter million dollars in ten years.

  LuciferTheLightBringer

• There is better grammar to be used if you want to be taken seriously.

  Oh(P) dear...

• Bump, for the hell of it.

• There are any number of stocks you could have invested in in 1999 where you could have easily quadrupled your money had you sold at the right time. \ \ There is nothing special about gold, except its tangibility and shininess.

• The price of gold is sinking like a stone.%0D\ %0D\ Down $40 an ounce in just one day! Looks like the bubble has just burst.%0D\ %0D\ Sorry, goldbugs!

  http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/10/20/business/20101020075404&sec=business

• R4, coins are for suckers. You can only get melt price for that crap. \ \ Call around, no one is buying coins for coins, only for melt. 25% hit right there.

• [quote]There is nothing special about gold, except its tangibility and shininess.\ \ Tangibility is it. It will always pace or outpace inflation, when held over long periods. Much safer than any other stock or commodity. And a valid 401(k) investment for what it''s worth, for those who''ve seen their stock-based retirement investments tank.\ \ I tried to persuade people to buy it at $950 and was told I was a right wing fool. You don''t have to buy it from Glenn Beck for hell''s sake. Any fool can see that the government wants to devalue the dollar - the Fed''s had interest rates at 0 plus naught for a while now. We want to pay off our enormous debt with cheaper dollars than we borrowed. Gold goes up when the relative value of the dollar to other currencies goes down.\ \ It will hit $1400 this year and it will likely go to $1500 when the second mortgage crisis hits in 2011. So it''s still a decent buy.

  Uncle Aurum

• R10, SA Kuggerands were sold at spot. Learn something before you post on a subject you are ignorant of.

• [quote]It has quadrupled since 2000. If you put $250k in gold in 1999, you would be a millionaire.\ \ If you had put $250K in HANS in 1999, you''d have over $150 million. If you had put in in AAPL, you''d have over $14 million. If you had bought TASR, you''d have over $28 million, but you''d be kicking yourself for not selling when it was worth over $200 million in December 2004. If you had put it in platinum it would have almost quintupled instead of quadrupled. So fucking what?\ \ Anything with a 13% interest rate will quadruple in value in 11 years. And if you cherry pick your start point and end point you can find a 13% run in almost any commodity or stock.\ \ [quote]I invested almost all my savings in gold in the early 2000s, so I have a vested interest in it going higher!\ \ You invested "almost all" your savings in just one thing? You got lucky, but that was really, really dumb. Sell some of it now while it''s at a historic high and diversify.

• Gold is outperforming the stock market again this year. Until the government is no longer in control of the money supply, it will just go higher and higher.

• Gold is a commodity precious metal experiencing a classic speculative bubble.

• Yup. See this inflation-adjusted chart from a couple of months ago. We're in a bubble and it will pop. So no, it will not reach $10k, $20k, or whatever other fantasies you might have.

  http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm

• Gold is overdue for a massive correction. Hopefully only straight people are still holding. Remember this in 18 months...you were warned.

• [quote]Gold is outperforming the stock market again this year. It always does during recessions. Over the long haul, though, the stock market outperforms gold and it's not even close. [quote]Until the government is no longer in control of the money supply, it will just go higher and higher. Oh, garbage. The government has been "in control of the money supply" for decades and gold has climbed and busted several times in the interim.

• I've had gold since it was $400/oz.

• [quote]It will always pace or outpace inflation, when held over long periods. Much safer than any other stock or commodity. Actually, you're wrong on all counts. Do you really know so little of history or of financial matters?

• "To take an extreme example, while a dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars. All this is in real terms, taking inflation into account. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998 be worth just 78 cents." -- Thomas Sowell, in the book Basic Economics

  r13%2C%20having%20deja%20vu

• Based on the plan to inflate ourselves to a manageable level of debt, I'd say about $5,000. Figure an extra year's worth of printed GDP, doubling everything (except your savings and pension, sorry) and a bit more foolish speculation on top. Then a level off to $4,000 until the next major fuckup.

• [quote]They're now over $129 in value. At this rate 3 grams will be worth a quarter million dollars in ten years. This scenario will ever be allowed to happen imo.

• Where there's mass speculation, there's a bubble.

• So, gold is up nearly 20% in the 18 months since this post, yet the posters still claim it is in a bubble. When will they realize that when the dollar is worth nothing, people will still want to trade gold for food, gas, etc.?

• [quote]So, gold is up nearly 20% in the 18 months since this post, yet the posters still claim it is in a bubble. That's because it is, in fact, in a bubble, as the chart clearly shows. You've ignored the chart so far, despite it being shown to you several times. Were you, perchance, going to address it anytime soon? As for "being up nearly 20% in the 18 months since this post," it's actually down over the past six months, and what you wrote is *exactly* what morons were writing in 2000 and in 2007. How did that work out for you?

  http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm

• [quote]It will always pace or outpace inflation, when held over long periods. False, as the chart above shows. [quote]Much safer than any other stock or commodity. False. Bonds are much safer, as gold has boomed and busted in the past and is currently in a bubble that will eventually pop. [quote]And a valid 401(k) investment for what it's worth False. Stocks have held up much better than has gold.

• Wonder why the other gold thread was deleted?

• The graphic at the link shows how ignorance and shortsightedness the arguments the gold hater at R27 makes.

  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/infographic-gold-bubble

• Um, R29, you do realize that *nothing* in that infographic actually addressed whether gold was in a bubble, right? Or addressed the bleeding obvious chart linked below? What's fascinating is that someone threw together a bunch of unrelated drivel and you fell for it, hook, line, and sinker. Come back when you've got some real data.

  http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htmj

• This time it's different! It's not a bubble at all!

  internet start-up investor walking hand-in-hand with real estate investor

• Oh, and R29, I will note that you were not able to refute the comments made at R27. You cannot, of course, since they are true: gold has not "always outpace[d] inflation," it is not "safer than any other stock or commodity," and, because of that, it is a pretty bad "401(k) investment," assuming that you wanted to actually retire, of course.

• Sorry, corrected link. I know, R31. Hilarious, isn't it?

  http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm

• I don't know where it will go, but I'm glad that I have almost 2000 ounces of it!

  saving%20for%20all%20the%20rainy%20days

• And will you be equally happy when it loses 3/4 of its value, R34?

• No, I probably won't r35. I'm just sayin that I'm glad my old man started investing in gold in the early 1970s and that I'm going to inherit my portion of it when he goes. No matter what price it's at, it'll be a windfall for me.

• Can't argue with that, R36. Congrats on your good fortune.

• My husband and myself cashed in $10,000 worth of life insurance and bought gold and silver. The price of gold was $311oz. Our investment is worth over $50,000 now. We are small time but this is our nest egg. Glad we did it and plan to hold on to it.

• As long as you're prepared for a massive price drop, R38, go for it. If you're not prepared for that, well, you have my sympathies.

• So if I sell a few very thin gold necklaces and a ring (all 14k I think)about how much should I get. You think at least 100 bucks?

  Need to pay those Con Ed vultures

• With most of the Cash-For-Gold!!! places, you'll be lucky to get $20.

• R26/27/30/32/33/35/37/39/31 (aka the only person who has consistently attacked gold, with no real understanding of gold and why people are buying it) has a problem. She refuses to see that with the government printing more and more money to bail out big banks and corporations that gold is a hedge against major inflation. Like Weimar or Argentinian level hyperinflation. Are you a shill for the big banks? The FED?

• [quote](aka the only person who has consistently attacked gold I'm truly sorry that you have so much trouble with reality. Maybe you can rejoin us in the real world someday. [quote]with no real understanding of gold and why people are buying it) LOL... As compared to the idiot in denial who *still* can't bring himself to acknowledge the reality that gold is in a classic bubble, and who refuses to even acknowledge, much less address, the current state of the inflation-adjusted price of gold. [quote]She refuses to see that with the government printing more and more money to bail out big banks and corporations that gold is a hedge against major inflation. Yeah, well, see, you've been predicting "major inflation" for four years now. You were wrong four years ago; you're still wrong today. [quote]Like Weimar or Argentinian level hyperinflation. Uh-huh, we know that's what you claim. Like I said, you've been claiming that for years. It's just not going to happen. And when folks finally wise up that it's not going to happen, guess what happens to the price of gold?

• The inflation rate you cite excludes food, energy and housing- the largest components of life. Anyone can see that gas, housing, and food are MUCH more expensive than they were 10 years ago, while wages have barely budged. Anyone who believes that inflation rate has no desire, for ideological/religious belief, to delve deeper into the data that shows much higher inflation. That is why gold is not in a bubble. Trust me, I know more about this than you think you do.

• [quote]The inflation rate you cite excludes food, energy and housing- the largest components of life. I didn't cite any inflation rate but even if those other items are included, we're *still* not experiencing the "major" inflation you've been predicting for years. [quote]Anyone can see that gas, housing, and food are MUCH more expensive than they were 10 years ago Um, no, actually that's completely false. Interesting, by the way, that you have to go back ten years, as that was well before the events that you claim are going to cause the "major inflation" you've been predicting. [quote]while wages have barely budged. Which has not one damn thing to do with the price of gold or "major inflation." [quote]Anyone who believes that inflation rate has no desire, for ideological/religious belief, to delve deeper into the data that shows much higher inflation. LOL... Alas, then, that "delv[ing] deeper" still doesn't support your point. Oh, well, there's always next year. Maybe that "major inflation" you've been predicting will finally show up. [quote]That is why gold is not in a bubble. And the reason that gold is, in fact, in a bubble is that the inflation-adjusted price is reaching historic highs, as one glance at the chart I posted would show, something that you *still* can't bring yourself to acknowledge, much less deal with. Oh, and then there's the fact that the economy is recovering while inflation remains low, something that has a negative impact on gold prices. [quote]Trust me, I know more about this than you think you do. ROFL... So you keep claiming but you still get your ass handed to you in every one of these threads because of your abysmal ignorance of economics.

• Oh, and R44, this assertion of yours was hilarious. [quote]Anyone can see that ... housing [is] MUCH more expensive than [it was] 10 years ago. Tell me, nave you been asleep the last ten years? Tell us again how you "know more about this," won't you? We can use another laugh.

• ?

• R45 etc. Looks like you peed all over this thread. Trolldar is not your friend. Get a life.

• LOL... Gee, according to trolldar, R45 (me) has posted three replies, all of them responding to bullshit posted by the idiot who thinks that gold is just the greatest thing since sliced bread. You reactivated a three-day-old post that nobody much cares about to complain about just three posts? Speaking of "getting a life..."

• R49, trolldar actually shows that you posted at 26, 27, 30, 32, 33, 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46 and 49. My post at R42 documented the first round, and the fact that you are using a new IP address (and admitted to being R45) doesn't change the fact that you are the only "anti-gold" poster here. So, 13 posts out of 49 are by you, and the rest of us realize that gold is actually worth something. Good luck with that.

• ROFL.... Sorry, R50, but trolldar doesn't show anything of the kind. Why are you bothering to lie so blatantly? I'm not the only "anti-gold" poster on here, of course; I'm just the only one who bothers to deal with your drivel. Everyone else is just laughing at you. Oh, and moron... nobody has ever claimed that gold isn't worth anything. We're simply pointing out the undeniable truth that gold is in a bubble and that your pronouncements about the future of gold are laughably wrong, as are your pronouncements about inflation, housing prices, and pretty much everything you write about the economy.

• do some research on silver prices in the 90s. it rose daily for years, and then plunged. billions of $ were lost. same will eventually happen with gold. and if you are buying gold coin from folks that advertise on Rush or Beck... you are paying WAY more than the gold is worth today.

  mattress%20or%20ira

• Yes, R52, or a similar boom and bust for gold in the 80s. This isn't really about gold, though, at least not directly. Basically, we have a resident Rondroid/Austrian economics devotee who has a quasi-religious view that, economically, we're at the brink of disaster, that inflation is going to skyrocket, etc. He's an anti-Federal-Reserve, return-to-the-gold-standard guy, just like most of the Rondroids are. What he's really saying here is that when things fall apart, paper money will be worthless, that the gold he's hoarding will grow to ten times its current value, and, well, you can read some of the crap on this thread. He'd been spouting this drivel for over a year here, as I recall. He always claims that he knows so much more than anyone else but he always gets even very basic details completely wrong (again, see this thread). No logic or data can get through to this moron. All you can do is pity him for his ignorance and laugh at his arrogance. I do so love these threads, though, as I laugh my ass off at the utter nonsense he spews. It's even funnier when you realize that he really does believe this shit!

• So in the reality based (non-gold bug) world, what should I do with these gold coins I accepted as payment from a cash poor client? They've been sitting in my safe deposit box since I accepted them and credited him $1729 an ounce for them, the spot price for that day (this is an old friend, so it's not a big deal.) Gold peaks in February, right? And I think the peak in Feb. was about $1786 an ounce, so maybe I missed my window to unload these things. He gets some money back from me, so I'd prefer to unload them at above $1729. Any chance of that?

• R54, nobody knows. Gold is wobbling a bit and has been up and down over the past few months. It could climb $500 per ounce over the next six months; it could plummet $500 per ounce over that same period. Gold dropped 2% yesterday; it climbed a bit today. Basically, it's a gamble, which is what people have been trying to tell our resident gold bug.

• R54, google 'gold seasonality' . Apr-June are doldrums for gold but Sep-Nov usually see the highest prices. Full disclosure: I own gold.

  Aunt%20Goldie

• As the election approaches in November, the media will do what it usually does and try to make the eventual non-event of Obama's decisive re-election into a barn-burner by bullshitting all over the place, gold will zoom up due to "uncertainty". When it hits $2000 again, I'm selling the 1oz. coin I have. I think that will be around October 30th.

• I can make sure there will be a crash by buying some myself!

• If you trolldar R49 and R45 you will see that they are the same poster. They are using two different accounts, and posting from each. Their post at R49 exposed them. People are buying gold because they see that the gov is printing trillions of dollars which is causing prices to rise. It is a hedge against this monetary inflation. Look at gas and food (the two major components left out of gov stats on inflation) and you will see that inflation is rising rapidly. As more of the new money enters the system, the economy will begin to look healthy, unemployment will drop, stocks will rise and the media will proclaim that things are 100% okay. Once the FED quits printing money, it will collapse again, and we will be even worse off. It's very simple unless you have a pHd in Economics and can believe bullshit!!!

• speaking of gold, could someone please start a thread for me? I want to know if this accent tile would go with white tiled walls?

  http%3A//www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001TK8U5W/ref%3Dox_sc_act_title_2%3Fie%3DUTF

• [quote]People are buying gold because they see that the gov is printing trillions of dollars No, actually they're not. They're buying gold because it's been steadily increasing in price, just as you would expect if it were in a bubble. And they will continue to buy until the bubble pops. [quote]which is causing prices to rise. Sorry, but you're still wrong. You've been stubbornly predicting massive inflation for months and, alas, inflation has been anything but massive. And, contrary to your assertions in this thread, inflation is still under control. I know that contradicts your economic views but that's the problem with adopting idiotic views. Reality has a way of interfering. [quote]It is a hedge against this monetary inflation. Too bad that we don't have that inflation you're so desperate for, isn't it? As for being a "hedge," all you have to do is look at the price of gold over the past 100 years to see just how poor a "hedge" it is. [quote]Look at gas and food (the two major components left out of gov stats on inflation) and you will see that inflation is rising rapidly. ROFL... At least you're not still stupidly pretending that housing prices are wildly inflating. As for food, no, sorry, you're still wrong there, too, since it's simply not true that "inflation is rising rapidly" there. Why do you bother to post such obviously false statements? And, as for gas, gee, what else could possibly affect the price of gas? Anyone? Anyone? Free clue: it has nothing to do with the Federal Reserve and nothing to do with "monetary inflation." [quote]As more of the new money enters the system, the economy will begin to look healthy Too bad, then, that the Fed is no longer doing quantitative easing and the stimulus has long since expired, which means that there is no significant "new money" entering the system, which means that your point here is wrong, as usual. [quote]unemployment will drop, stocks will rise and the media will proclaim that things are 100% okay. Nah, they'll report the truth, which is that the economy is slowly recovering, which it is. Nobody expects it to be overnight. And everyone expects unemployment to remain high for the rest of the year. [quote]Once the FED quits printing money, it will collapse again ROFL.... You really *don't* know anything, do you? By your definition, the Fed has been "printing money" for 100 years now. If this were such a problem, shouldn't we have seen, oh, maybe just a teensy, weensy collapse by now? [quote]It's very simple unless you have a pHd in Economics and can believe bullshit!!! ROFL.... Too bad that the data just don't support your view, which is why you can't be bothered to actually look for any or provide any, which is what you fail to do every single time you post here. You have never, not once, provided even one shred of logic, reason, or data to support your wild (and really silly) assertions. You are funny, though, so you're good for something. Face it: the hyper-inflation you're praying for is never going to happen. The economic collapse you're praying for is never going to happen. Sorry, but that's reality for you.

• I'm curious- How many people here think they don't pay enough in taxes, or do not have enough regulations at every level of society, or think we do not spend enough on foreign wars and domestic spying, or that inflation is too low, or that the big banks need more support? All of those things are intimately related, and you can't eliminate one without the others.

• R62 is Curious Yellow.

• One year later, and gold is the best performing asset in the market.

• And gold is still the best asset to hold compared to S&P or DJIA.

• R17 We're still waiting...

• [R26]/27/30/32/33/35/37/39/31/49/51/53 You've been shown to be a fool. Admit you're wrong, be a man, and concede that gold will keep going higher and higher until the Federal Reserve quits inflating.

• I cashed in my modest gold holdings when it was in the 1800's. Sold my silver when he was around 50. I paid so little for all of it I have no regrets having cashed in. I bought most of the silver at 12 to 14 so made lots of money

• Taxes are way, way too high, but not for the reasons you think. First of all mass corruption is wasting half your tax money. Second is we way, way over pay federal and state workers. They do clerical work and instead of getting minimum wage, which is what they would get in the private sector, they get easily double that. And all the benefits and time off and sick leave, it adds up. We need to cut taxes to bare minimums. Then have the wages of all federal and state workers cut to minimum wage. Then we can raise them or lower them as the free market dictates. You will see how efficient your government will get. We also need to end unions and civil service. If they are poor workers they are gone. I have worked with the AID office in Illinois and I can only think of one worker in that office that earns his money. The rest perform clerical duties and all are earning over 50K a year for simply typing information into a computer.

• [quote]And gold is still the best asset to hold compared to S&P or DJIA. LOL.... You really just cant bring yourself to admit you were wrong, can you? Over the past century, the stock market has vastly outperformed gold. In the past year, the stock market has outperformed gold. In the coming years, the stock market is almost certainly going to outperform gold. Deal with it.

• [quote]You've been shown to be a fool. ROFL.... Actually, the data still support me, not you. You're the one who claimed that gold was going to climb 10x higher. How's that working out for you? [quote]Admit you're wrong Why would I admit to something so clearly false? [quote]and concede that gold will keep going higher and higher until the Federal Reserve quits inflating. ROFL.... Wow... you really haven't been paying attention to the economy of late, have you? Or gold prices? Take a look at R61. Every word there remains true today, just as every one of your predictions has been proven to be utterly and completely false. Hyperinflation, which you've been predicting for years? Not happening. Gold prices climbing 10-fold, which you've been predicting for at least a year now? Not happening. Economic collapse, which you've been predicting for several years? Not happening. Deal with it, moron.

• [R40] You need to know the karat value and gram weight. Then you can go to a precious metals calculating site. Usually gold, silver and platinum. Insert the weight and karat value and it calculates the exact value based on the gold value that day. That is the value. You sell it as scrap and what scarp buyers pay varies. Paying anything less than 80% of that is a scam and many will scam you. Anything more than that is hard to get. Someone in the business will have direct connections that allows them to sell in bulk for up to 95+ percent of value. Gold coins trade at market value with some having value beyond the gold value as rare and collectible, mostly antique coins. Be wary of 1 ounce bars marked 99/100 pure gold because often they are only plated with 99/100 gold. I have seen people trying to sell these on CL for 2 grand when they can be purchased for 20 bucks.

• [quote]If you put $250k in gold in 1999, you would be a millionaire. 1) You already were a millionaire (or an idiot). 2) If you put that $250,000 in Apple stock you'd be a $12.5 millionaire.

• I can't help wondering why our resident moron reactivated this thread. Solely because of R17? I mean, if you look at the price of gold over the past year (see the chart at the link), I don't think anyone would possibly call gold a good investment now. It's highly volatile, down from its peak, and there are no signs it's going to continue to climb as it did to get us into the current bubble. He reminds me of the people who were in denial about the housing bubble. "Housing prices *always* climb! Real estate is a great investment!" Yeah, it is, until it comes crashing down to earth. If you invested in gold 12 years ago, you're a genius. If you invest in it now, you're an idiot.

  http://www.monex.com/prods/gold_chart.html

• My boyfriend pronounces buttocks like this bah-TOCKS. Why does he do that? He also says ay-NELL Is he weird? He's from Israel. But I don't think he's Jew.

• R74 Because you can't print gold. All the central banks are printing money like it's going out of style, and the banks are parking it back with those central banks in order to conform to "guidelines" about reserves versus bad assets. Why do you think the Federal Reserve took on the trillions in bad debt from BoA and Wells? Have you never wondered why the economy (which was "saved" in 2008 by the central banks) is still shitty? Is it because they aren't lending that money yet? But, what happens when they DO lend it- it will chase scarce goods, driving up nominal prices. That will mean that inflation will kick higher. Since people want to hedge against that, gold will go higher. Look at this thread, started in Jan 2010- gold was at +/-$1100. Now it's at +/-$1800. Compare that to the DJIA or S&P. People like r70/71/74 just don't want to admit that a system built on printing money to give to the rich and powerful banksters is dangerous, and that it hurts the poor and middle class. They are so in love with their religion of government power they try to scare and confuse anyone who disagrees. R68, you will regret selling at that low price.

• so how high is it going to go R76?

• [quote]so how high is it going to go R76? He has formerly claimed it would climb 10 to 20 times above its current price. Of course, out here in the real world, the inflation-adjusted price of gold is at near-record highs, which means we're in a classic bubble and that gold isn't going to climb much, if at all. The behavior we've seen in the past year is that it's been highly volatile, bouncing up and down by as much as $250. In the past year overall, it's basically been flat.

  http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm

• [quote]Because you can't print gold. *shrug* So? [quote]All the central banks are printing money like it's going out of style Actually, no they aren't. They have engaged in various economic easing tactics over the past five years, of course, but those were the appropriate actions to take in the face of a major economic downturn. If your predictions had any value at all, they would have come true by now but, alas for you, the hyperinflation and economic meltdown you've been predicting for years just haven't happened. [quote]Have you never wondered why the economy (which was "saved" in 2008 by the central banks) is still shitty? No, actually I don't, since we already know the answer. There are two aspects to recovery from a major downturn: one is monetary policy, the other is fiscal policy. The central bank controls the first; the federal government controls the second. And it is the failure to act on that second policy that has prevented the economy from recovering as quickly as it might have. There is also the known fact that recovering from a major financial meltdown always takes considerably longer than recover from a normal recession. [quote]Is it because they aren't lending that money yet? No. The demand isn't there. As long as the demand isn't there, it doesn't matter how much money they have to lend. [quote]But, what happens when they DO lend it- it will chase scarce goods, driving up nominal prices. That will mean that inflation will kick higher. So you've been claiming for years now. It hasn't happened; it's not going to happen. We're in a classic liquidity trap and inflation just cannot soar under these conditions. Sorry, but the economy theory you believe in is just wrong. [quote]Since people want to hedge against that, gold will go higher. Not likely, and certainly not by much. We're in a classic bubble and that bubble will pop. That's why you're seeing high volatility now instead of that long climb that inflated the bubble. [quote]Look at this thread, started in Jan 2010- gold was at +/-$1100. Now it's at +/-$1800. Compare that to the DJIA or S&P. Sigh.... You really are ignorant, aren't you? That's what you expect when you're in a bubble, moron! That is precisely what happened in the early 80s, until it came crashing down. And that's what people were saying about the housing bubble. Repeating what I said above: "Housing prices *always* climb! Real estate is a great investment!" Yeah, it is, until it comes crashing down to earth. If you invested in gold 12 years ago, you got lucky. If you invest in it now, you're an idiot. Over the long haul, gold is a poor investment. [quote]People like [R70]/71/74 just don't want to admit that a system built on printing money to give to the rich and powerful banksters is dangerous Well, mostly because that statement is entirely false. We've had that system for 100 years and the horror stories that people like you have been confidently predicting just haven't come true. [quote]They are so in love with their religion of government power they try to scare and confuse anyone who disagrees. ROFL..... It's not my fault that you're so willfully ignorant and so easily confused. Nor is it my fault that you will have no answer for anything I've written here. Nor is it my fault that none of your predictions in this thread have come true and that most of your statements are provably false. [quote][R68], you will regret selling at that low price. Oh, I doubt that. If it does climb a bit higher, it's not going to be by much. The economy is slowly recovering and as it does, gold prices are likely to fall.

• Here are a few of the assertions from our resident gold bug: [quote]It will always pace or outpace inflation, when held over long periods. False. [quote]Much safer than any other stock or commodity. False. Bonds are much safer, as gold has boomed and busted in the past and is currently in a bubble that will eventually pop. [quote]And a valid 401(k) investment for what it's worth False. Over the long haul, stocks have vastly outperformed gold and are more stable (although both are highly volatile). [quote]Until the government is no longer in control of the money supply, it will just go higher and higher. False, since it's had several booms and busts over the years. [quote]Like Weimar or Argentinian level hyperinflation. False. This has been his prediction for years; it hasn't happened and it's not going to happen. [quote]Anyone can see that ... housing [is] MUCH more expensive than [it was] 10 years ago Oh yes, anyone can see this. Clearly. How could we possibly have missed this? [quote]It is a hedge against this monetary inflation. False on both counts, since we're not seeing the massive hyperinflation he's been predicting and since gold isn't a good hedge against inflation. [quote]Once the FED quits printing money, it will collapse again False. [quote]One year later, and gold is the best performing asset in the market. False.

• I LOVELOVELOVE the epic break with reality block quote poster! She has posted at R78/79/80! You're good! Krugman would be proud. Her similar posts on other threads are just as priceless in their ignorance and economic confusion.  Such a fundamental inability to grasp basic economics requires a PhD! Bravo! Since most people only know reality based economics, let me explain. Since 2008 the Federal Reserve has purchased all long term debt. They sell all of their short term (1-3yr) debt while purchasing ALL of the long term (10-30yr) debt which has allowed them to keep interest rates low. They have very little short term debt left, and soon they will be unable to monetize without the market (that "invisible handed beast") forcing interest rates higher.  (as an aside, the charter for the Federal Reserve forbids outright purchases, so the TBTF banks get to buy the debt and sell it at a profit right back to the Federal Reserve. How goddamn convenient!) Once they run out of short term debt, they will lose any ability to affect the interest rates, and they will go higher than the moon. The only reason the debt they have monetized (4 Trillion and counting) is not causing inflation is because they decided (for the first time in history) to pay interest to the TBTF banks to keep it from getting to "the little people". As interest rates rise, these banks will be forced to either A) loan it out, or B) go bankrupt.  Those loans...well, it won't be pretty. They have "contained" inflation for nearly 5 years, but at the cost of a much bigger disaster in the future.  Those interested can start here. 

• Forgot linky--- This will make miss "I know how to run an economy and anyone who disagrees is a freeper" explode. Cheers.

  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-08/what-fed-exit

• our economy may be improving but Europe is still in the toilet and China is slowing down so I think gold prices will still be high. Europe will be in the shitters for a looonnng time.

• R83 China is fucked, and the EU even moreso. China has been "growing" its GDP at 8-10% a year building cities in the middle of nowhere, and by printing money. Now inflation is making basic foods too expensive, and people are rioting. Just like the US, though, the families of the ruling class have billions in foreign accounts. They can use their access to get lucrative contracts for their friends as "consultants" and hide money overseas. And I'm talking about the US. And the EU. And China. And Japan. Now they are trying to "slow it down" and causing the banking system (which, just like the US/EU is based on a constantly expanding money supply provided by the central banks) to crash. Japan, the US, UK, EU, China- we are all in the same boat, and the crash of one will bring major pain to the rest. That is why gold keeps going higher. Oh, and most of the gold price is composed of "paper gold" which, like fractional reserve banks, can be sold to ten different people at the same time. Good luck getting that paper traded in for actual gold in a crash. If it ain't in your pocket, or in your safe, when the paper money system gets completely fucked up...you ain't gonna see that shit, and the phyz will go MUCH higher. Truth.

• [quote]I LOVELOVELOVE the epic break with reality block quote poster! ROFL.... Trust me, the feeling is mutual, particularly since I've been able to back up everything I've written and you haven't been able to back up a single assertion of yours, mostly because they're all false. Do let us know when gold prices increase tenfold, won't you? [quote]You're good! Krugman would be proud. This is basic Econ 101 and basic finance, idiot. It doesn't take a doctorate; just someone willing to face reality. [quote]Her similar posts on other threads are just as priceless in their ignorance and economic confusion. ROFLMAO.... Oh, the irony.... [quote]Such a fundamental inability to grasp basic economics requires a PhD! Bravo! Dear heart, were you planning to get to the point anytime soon? I've had better insults on an elementary school playground. [quote]Since most people only know reality based economics, let me explain. Oh, this should be good.... [quote]Since 2008 the Federal Reserve has purchased all long term debt. ... *Yawn* Sadly, it wasn't. Good, that is. It's just more of the usual panic and fearmongering from the usual suspects. I was fully prepared to debunk this crap but the trouble is that there wasn't anything to debunk! Not one shred of evidence. Not one bit of data. Not one sign that the site he's quoting (which employs anonymous blog posters) has the foggiest idea what it's talking about. What the Federal Reserve is doing is unusual only in that the size and duration of the economic downturn has increased the scope of their intervention. As the economy recovers, the Fed will unwind its intervention, just as it has done dozens of times in the past. This isn't rocket science. [quote]Once they run out of short term debt, they will lose any ability to affect the interest rates, and they will go higher than the moon. Q.E.D. These idiots have been predicting massive interest rates and massive hyperinflation for years. Sadly for them, since we're in a liquidity trap, neither of these things can happen. Our dear little friend will be back here next year, and the next, and the next, and the next, with the same old predictions of doom and gloom, just as he's been doing for years. The fact that his predictions never come true doesn't bother him in the least. Pity him, my friends.

• [quote]China is fucked, and the EU even moreso. And another post that doesn't warrant any debunking since it's wholly disconnected from reality and doesn't actually have any data to support the drivel he's spouting. [quote]and the crash of one will bring major pain to the rest. That is why gold keeps going higher. LOL.... See what I mean? See, out here in the real world, gold doesn't keep going higher, since it's been highly volatile in the past year, bouncing up and down $250 a pop, and has been essentially flat overall. You can see for yourself at the link. [quote]If it ain't in your pocket, or in your safe, when the paper money system gets completely fucked up...you ain't gonna see that shit, and the phyz will go MUCH higher. Uh-huh, and unicorns will fly out of your butt, too. Here's my prediction: a year from now, this idiot will resurrect all of his old threads and will once again predict economic armageddon, hyperinflation, and gold prices climbing tenfold. And the year after that. And the year after that. And the year after that, blissfully unaware of the utter failure of his predictions and the economic "religion" he follows.

  http://www.monex.com/prods/gold_chart.html

• I don't know for sure if China will be fucked but it's true what R84 said " the families of the ruling class have billions in foreign accounts. They can use their access to get lucrative contracts for their friends as "consultants" and hide money overseas. And I'm talking about the US. And the EU. And China. And Japan." They are money laundering like crazy, in Singapore too. I'm more concerned about Europe...lots of my friends are jobless and things don't seem to be getting better.

• [quote]I'm more concerned about Europe...lots of my friends are jobless and things don't seem to be getting better. That's because most of what they've been doing thus far violates basic Econ 101 rules. Cutting government spending in the face of a major economic downturn is exactly the wrong thing to do. It acts as an additional drag on the economy and has been sending many of the countries into a double-dip recession. Contrary to what our Rondroid friend asserts, government spending needs to be counter-cyclical: increasing spending during a downturn and paying it back when the economy recovers. In the case of the EU, there are other pressures, as well, e.g., the various countries are not in control of their own currencies and thus have more limited ability to act. That's just one of the reasons that the comparisons between the U.S. and Greece are laughably dumb.

• Just to follow up- Even with the drop this month, gold is still up +20% since this was posted, while the stock market is flat.

• I have one cousin that says: Va-gine-ee Another says Vag (like in nag), gine-er And still another says: Ver-gin-ya Which is it?

• Gold... Thank you for fucking my end Fuck it once or twice and then again You're heart is true You're a pal not a stupid Jew And if you threw a party Invited everyone but Jews You would see Every God damn Israeli Would say, "Oh wey I'm so oppressed, plant trees in Israel."

  Andrew%20Gold

• [quote]Even with the drop this month, gold is still up +20% since this was posted, while the stock market is flat. ROFL... This guy just can't face reality... Out here in the real world, gold peaked in September, 2011 and has been down or flat ever since. Our dear little chum had to reach back to 2010 because that's when gold was still climbing into the bubble it currently is in. And, since gold is at historically high levels, when adjusted for inflation, anyone who purchases it now as an "investment" is likely going to be in for a disappointment. This year, the stock market has been a better investment than gold, as it has for most of the past 100 years, with the solve exception being those two times that gold climbed into a massive bubble.

  http://www.monex.com/prods/gold_chart.html

• No one is saying gold won't go up, what we're all saying is it's overpriced now and artificially inflated. If you want to buy, fine, but it better be a very, short term thing. Sell before it falls. Gold should be no lower than $300 and no higher than $600.

• R93 You are conflating paper gold and physical. Paper is just a promise to pay gold, which is useless if the price surges. If gold is so overvalued, why have China, Russia, India and Brazil more than doubled their holdings over the last 24 months? Dollars, pounds, yen, rupee- all of those are dependent on the government paying you. Gold is valuable outside of that Ponzi scheme, that's why people keep buying. The physical market is 1% of the market- the rest is big banks and insiders playing with monopoly money. Most of their gold is rehypothecated 10x, and will never be available to the buyer. R92 is too ignorant for me to reply.

• [quote]f gold is so overvalued, why have China, Russia, India and Brazil more than doubled their holdings over the last 24 months? For the same reason morons kept buying houses in August 2007 a month before the collapse, for the same reason in 9/1929 people kept buying stocks. They were blind.

• [quote][R92] is too ignorant for me to reply. ROFL... Yup, you can't handle reality. Thanks for confirming that. Of course, everything written in R92 is 100% accurate and since you can't contradict any of that information, you have to play these silly games. Do you really think nobody notices?

• All depends on what currency you are buying it in. US Dollars - yikes. $1 trillion an ounce by 2021.

• Since they are floating the idea of a $1Trillion platinum coin, it looks like gold might be worth a few billion dollars an ounce. Of course that will mean that toilet paper costs $20Million a roll...

  http://www.datalounge.com/cgi-bin/iowa/ajax.html%23page:showDirty%2C12310023%2C22

• [quote]Since they are floating the idea of a $1Trillion platinum coin, it looks like gold might be worth a few billion dollars an ounce. ROFLMAO.... You do realize that this is really an ignorant statement, right? And that the platinum coin idea isn't going to do a damn thing to inflation or to the price of gold? And that claiming it will is incredibly stupid? Just checking.

• Damn, I wish the Idiot Libertarian Troll(TM) would stop bumping his own pathetic threads...

• R99- If the US decides to "pay off" the debt by such fiscal chicanery the holders of US debt will dump it. That will result in massive inflation.

• [quote]If the US decides to "pay off" the debt by such fiscal chicanery the holders of US debt will dump it. That will result in massive inflation. ROFL.... Wow, you really don't know anything about finance or human nature, do you? Of course they won't, because everyone knows exactly what is going on and knows just how harmless the proposal is. Do you even understand the proposal? Judging from your comments here, I rather doubt it. Suffice to say that this prediction, like all your predictions, will not come true. And, like most of them, it's really pretty stupid.

• "because everyone knows exactly what is going on and knows just how harmless the proposal is" We know that it would be a telegraphed default, and we would respond accordingly.

  China%20and%20Japan

• [quote]We know that it would be a telegraphed default, and we would respond accordingly. ROFL... Dear heart, you really should stop posting. You're just making a fool of yourself. The concept of the platinum coin is really quite simple. Are you really so moronic that you just can't grasp it? And grasp just how non-consequential it really is? And no, dear, it's not a "default," no matter how much you would like to pretend it is. And no, dear, neither China nor Japan will be so foolish as to act as you have proposed, given the damage they would do to their own financial systems.

• Good God. Anyone who looks at a gold price chart can see how it has done better than the stock market. This thread, posted in October 2010- gold +/-1320, and now gold is at +/- 1650. No stock market has come close.

• [quote]Good God. Anyone who looks at a gold price chart can see how it has done better than the stock market. Dear heart, in 2012, the stock market outperformed gold. In 76 out of the past 100 years, the stock market outperformed gold. And those two 12-year periods where gold outperformed the market were caused by two separate bubbles, the first of which ended with gold crashing back to earth and the second of which will likely do the same. [quote]This thread, posted in October 2010- gold +/-1320, and now gold is at +/- 1650. No stock market has come close. Yes, dear, but gold peaked in late 2011 and has been down or flat since. And the reason it did well in 2010 was because it was in a bubble, dear, something you *still* can't bring yourself to acknowledge! What I wrote in R92 still applies, and you have no answer for it: Out here in the real world, gold peaked in September, 2011 and has been down or flat ever since. Our dear little chum had to reach back to 2010 because that's when gold was still climbing into the bubble it currently is in. And, since gold is at historically high levels, when adjusted for inflation, anyone who purchases it now as an "investment" is likely going to be in for a disappointment. This year, the stock market has been a better investment than gold, as it has for most of the past 100 years, with the sole exception being those two times that gold climbed into a massive bubble.

• As high as Ken Ryker on Viagra.

• Looks like our libertarian chum got two more threads deleted with his spamming. Sucks to be him.

• R108- If you are too dense to see the unsustainable nature of spending by the government and realize that it WILL, eventually, result in a major default, then it sucks to be you.

• [quote]If you are too dense to see the unsustainable nature of spending by the government and realize that it WILL, eventually, result in a major default, then it sucks to be you. ROFL.... If you are too dense to see that the majority of the spending is coming from the economic downturn and that the situation will improve as the economy recovers, and that the core part of the deficit is, in fact, sustainable, then it sucks to be you. Not that this has anything to do with the price of gold coming down from its bubble high.

• R110- Why doesn't the government just print $100,000,000,000,000 and give each person in the US a +/-300,000 check if printing money is so good for the economy?

• Because, dear, that would not be good for the economy. Do try to keep up, won't you?

• Silver. Lead. Canned food. When TSHTF you will thank me for being that "crazy libertarian".

• R111 is more proof that libertarians lack a basic understanding of how economies work and are severely lacking in critical thinking skills.

• Yup, R114. And as a result of his spamming, he's managed to get half of his old threads closed. [quote]Silver. Lead. Canned food. But wait... You're not recommending gold anymore? I thought you said that gold was a "steal"? From another thread: [quote][Gold coins] are cheap now. At $1700+ they are a steal. Wait until the government defaults and it will be worth 10x that. Or more. ROFL.... Gold is in a bubble, at a historic high when adjusted for inflation, and you seriously believe it will climb ten-fold?! The mind boggles at the cluelessness. And that's not even taking into consideration the cluelessness that insists that the US government will default. [quote]When TSHTF you will thank me for being that "crazy libertarian". Nah, we'll just be laughing at you when your gold horde dramatically drops in value and when you're left making lame excuses as to why the meltdown and hyperinflation you've been predicting for years now has never happened.

• I'm sorry, did the Euro collapse yet? The Libertarian Idiot Troll(TM) was convinced that it would collapse once a month for the last five years.

• Yeah, and don't forget the hyperinflation and complete economic collapse and government collapse he's been predicting for that same period of time. I love that the Libertarian Idiot Troll (LIT) has an answer as to why we aren't seeing the hyperinflation he's been predicting for the past few years. It turns out that we have! [quote]Go back 10-15 years, and compare the cost of beef, or sugar, or Cars, or education, or gas, or any number of items...then compare them to 2013. The inflation rate is over 10%. Just because computers, TVs, phones and "Boom Boxes" (that you can carry in your pocket) have dropped in cost is misleading. Computers, iPods, TVs- all of them are created with virtually ZERO government regulation and interference, are WAY cheaper. This is absolutely priceless in its cluelessness. It's hard to know even where to begin to dissect the ways that this is stupid; there are just too many targets! Not only is his "over 10%" number wrong (and, of course, 10% isn't "hyperinflation") but there are reasons why things like commodities and food aren't in the core inflation index: they are too heavily influenced by outside factors, like scarcity, demand, drought, war, and the like. Look at the price of oil, for example. It dropped dramatically when demand plummeted as a result of the economic meltdown. And it's been climbing ever since as demand has resume. The two graphs line up perfectly. But to this moron, the price of oil has been climbing solely because of the actions of the Federal Reserve! As for his commentary on "computers, TVs, phones and 'Boom Boxes'" [sic], that's freaking hilarious! Not only is he wrong about regulations but he's completely overlooking the external factors. Televisions, for example, jumped dramatically in price when manufacturers switched to the flat-screen technologies in place today, but have come down equally dramatically over the past few years as the manufacturing processes improved and the scale increased. All you can do is shake your head and laugh and hope that he someday rejoins the real world.