One year later, and this is still my favorite article of all time.
Dick Morris: Here comes the landslide
Voters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the past four years. His campaign is based entirely on persuading people that Mitt Romney is a uniquely bad man, entirely dedicated to the rich, ignorant of the problems of the average person. As long as he could run his negative ads, the campaign at least kept voters away from the Romney bandwagon. But once we all met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we got to know him — and to like him. He was not the monster Obama depicted, but a reasonable person for whom we could vote.
As we stripped away Obama’s yearlong campaign of vilification, all the president offered us was more servings of negative ads — ads we had already dismissed as not credible. He kept doing the same thing even as it stopped working. The result was that the presidential race reached a tipping point. Reasonable voters saw that the voice of hope and optimism and positivism was Romney while the president was only a nitpicking, quarrelsome, negative figure. The contrast does not work in Obama’s favor.
His erosion began shortly after the conventions when Indiana (10 votes) and North Carolina (15) moved to Romney (in addition to the 179 votes that states that McCain carried cast this year).
Then, in October, Obama lost the Southern swing states of Florida (29) and Virginia (13). He also lost Colorado (10), bringing his total to 255 votes.
And now, he faces the erosion of the northern swing states: Ohio (18), New Hampshire (4) and Iowa (6). Only in the union-anchored state of Nevada (9) does Obama still cling to a lead.
In the next few days, the battle will move to Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (16). Ahead in Pennsylvania, tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, and slightly behind in Minnesota, these new swing states look to be the battleground.
Or will the Romney momentum grow and wash into formerly safe Democratic territory in New Jersey and Oregon?
Once everyone discovers that the emperor has no clothes (or that Obama has no argument after the negative ads stopped working), the vote shift could be of historic proportions.
The impact on Senate races could be profound. Give the GOP easy pickups in Nebraska and North Dakota. Wisconsin has been a roller coaster. Once an easy win for Republican Tommy Thompson, then a likely loss as Democrat Tammy Baldwin caught up, and now Republican again, it will probably be a third pickup. Romney’s surge in Virginia is propelling George Allen to a good lead for the first time all campaign. In Montana, Republican Denny Rehberg holds and has held for some time a small lead over Democrat incumbent Jon Tester. And, in Pennsylvania, Smith has powered his campaign to a small lead over Democrat Bob Casey Jr.
The GOP now leads in these six takeaways. But it is also within easy striking distance in Ohio and Florida, where incumbents are under 50 percent and Republican challengers Connie Mack (Fla.) and Josh Mandel (Ohio) are only a few points behind. It may even be possible to entertain daydreams of Rhode Island (Barry Hinckley) and New Jersey (Joe Kyrillos) going Republican.
Republican losses? Look for a giveback in Maine and possibly in Indiana and Massachusetts. In Indiana, Republican Richard Mourdock had established a 5-point lead over Democrat Joe Donnelly. But his comments about rape knocked him back to a tie. With Romney carrying the state by 15 points, however, Mourdock could still make it. In Massachusetts, Brown has been in hand-to-hand combat with Elizabeth Warren. Down by five a few days ago, he’s now tied, but the undecided usually goes against the incumbent.
The most likely outcome? Eight GOP takeaways and two giveaways for a net gain of six. A 53-47 Senate, just like we have now, only opposite.
Barack Obama’s parting gift to the Democratic party.
have you completely lost your mind OP?
As with many things in my life, I ask what Dick Morris would do, then do the exact opposite.
Please proceed, Senator.
R1? OP is quoting.
Do learn to read with comprehension, dear.
Let's not forget the day-before-Election-Day observations of that woman who prides herself on how in touch with the American people she is - Peggy Noonan! (At least her first two sentences were right!)
"We begin with the three words everyone writing about the election must say: Nobody knows anything. Everyone’s guessing. I spent Sunday morning in Washington with journalists and political hands, one of whom said she feels it’s Obama, the rest of whom said they don’t know. I think it’s Romney. I think he’s stealing in “like a thief with good tools,” in Walker Percy’s old words. While everyone is looking at the polls and the storm, Romney’s slipping into the presidency. He’s quietly rising, and he’s been rising for a while.
Obama and the storm, it was like a wave that lifted him and then moved on, leaving him where he’d been. Parts of Jersey and New York are a cold Katrina. The exact dimensions of the disaster will become clearer when the election is over. One word: infrastructure. Officials knew the storm was coming and everyone knew it would be bad, but the people of the tristate area were not aware, until now, just how vulnerable to deep damage their physical system was. The people in charge of that system are the politicians. Mayor Bloomberg wanted to have the Marathon, to show New York’s spirit. In Staten Island last week they were bitterly calling it “the race through the ruins.” There is a disconnect.
But to the election. Who knows what to make of the weighting of the polls and the assumptions as to who will vote? Who knows the depth and breadth of each party’s turnout efforts? Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.
I think they are and I think it’s this: a Romney win.
Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he’s caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what’s going on at the rallies is moving.
All the vibrations are right. A person who is helping him who is not a longtime Romneyite told me, yesterday: “I joined because I was anti Obama—I’m a patriot, I’ll join up But now I am pro-Romney.” Why? “I’ve spent time with him and I care about him and admire him. He’s a genuinely good man.” Looking at the crowds on TV, hearing them chant “Three more days” and “Two more days”—it feels like a lot of Republicans have gone from anti-Obama to pro-Romney.
Something old is roaring back. One of the Romney campaign’s surrogates, who appeared at a rally with him the other night, spoke of the intensity and joy of the crowd “I worked the rope line, people wouldn’t let go of my hand.” It startled him. A former political figure who’s been in Ohio told me this morning something is moving with evangelicals, other church-going Protestants and religious Catholics. He said what’s happening with them is quiet, unreported and spreading: They really want Romney now, they’ll go out and vote, the election has taken on a new importance to them.
There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same.
Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us.
"And there is Obama, out there seeming tired and wan, showing up through sheer self discipline. A few weeks ago I saw the president and the governor at the Al Smith dinner, and both were beautiful specimens in their white ties and tails, and both worked the dais. But sitting there listening to the jokes and speeches, the archbishop of New York sitting between them, Obama looked like a young challenger—flinty, not so comfortable. He was distracted, and his smiles seemed forced. He looked like a man who’d just seen some bad internal polling. Romney? Expansive, hilarious, self-spoofing, with a few jokes of finely calibrated meanness that were just perfect for the crowd. He looked like a president. He looked like someone who’d just seen good internals.
Of all people, Obama would know if he is in trouble. When it comes to national presidential races, he is a finely tuned political instrument: He read the field perfectly in 2008. He would know if he’s losing now, and it would explain his joylessness on the stump. He is out there doing what he has to to fight the fight. But he’s still trying to fire up the base when he ought to be wooing the center and speaking their calm centrist talk. His crowds haven’t been big. His people have struggled to fill various venues. This must hurt the president after the trememdous, stupendous crowds of ’08. “Voting’s the best revenge”—revenge against who, and for what? This is not a man who feels himself on the verge of a grand victory. His campaign doesn’t seem president-sized. It is small and sad and lost, driven by formidable will and zero joy.
I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled.
Romney ends most rallies with his story of the Colorado scout troop that in 1986 had an American flag put in the space shuttle Challenger, saw the Challenger blow up as they watched on TV, and then found, through the persistence of their scoutmaster, that the flag had survived the explosion. It was returned to them by NASA officials. When Romney, afterward, was shown the flag, he touched it, and an electric jolt went up his arm. It’s a nice story. He doesn’t make its meaning fully clear. But maybe he means it as a metaphor for America: It can go through a terrible time, a catastrophe, as it has economically the past five years, and still emerge whole, intact, enduring.
Maybe that’s what the coming Romney moment is about: independents, conservatives, Republicans, even some Democrats, thinking: We can turn it around, we can work together, we can right this thing, and he can help."
Romney's a bit too young for Noonan who likes the Daddies (Ronnie Raygun, JPII) but it sounds like she'd get down on her knees for him like she did the other two.
Re: Peggy Noonan
Even my Republican mother makes fun of her.
Those two should NEVER be allowed to forget these stupid columns/predictions. Total idiocy.
WEHT Dick (fired from Fox News) Morris?
And what would be so surprising to learn that voting machines can be manipulated. Snowden where are you?
Dick Morris = Baghdad Bob
Thanks, OP. Such a wonderful indictment of the false, evidence-free "commentary" of this supreme asshole.
The knowledge that the election results shocked Romney and others remains a signal revelation of the unrealistic, fantasy-and-faith-based egotism of these benighted creatures who are shredding the intelligence and prudence needed to run the country.
And R1 gets the award for the "Twit of the Day."
Well, how do we all feel after having experienced President Romney's first term?
Now that America has been restored its greatness by having a white President, it sure has been great to have all of our financial problems go away right after the Inauguration. Women being fired from their jobs and becoming homemakers was great too. Now that all birth control is illegal, a woman's place is in the home barefoot and pregnant. Women don't need shoes, being pregnant with a baby on each hip makes it impossible to go out! Ha ha ha, that was a joke!
And sharing moral values about persecuting gays has brought us closer than ever to Vladimir Putin. Thank goodness Mormonism was made the national religion too. At least we know now not a single American will ever go to hell.
I know I will get ripped apart on here but Obama has failed miserably on almost every promise he made. Obamacare, although well intentioned, is so far a total disaster. If you think the economy is better then you must know something I don't because all I see are people struggling to make ends meet. The only worse scenario I can think of is a Republican president.
The two party system doesn't work anymore and it's time for something new.
I still don't get the point of this post. Romney lost resoundly, no?
Pundits like Noonan can make these predictions that are 100% wrong, with absolutely no basis in facts or reality, yet no one calls them out on their bullshit and idiocy, and they keep getting invited to share their "wisdom" on the Sunday political shows.
Thanks, OP! I love fairy tales!
And r17, how can something not yet implemented be a "total disaster"? Are you reporting from January 2014?
[R20] You can sign up now for the Affordable Healthcare Act but it's not implemented until 2014, and it's not going well. There are many sites, including this one, that have threads regarding the difficulties to sign up.
Perhaps "total disaster" was a harsh term but I stand by what I've said. It is not working yet.
R21 you're an idiot.
Thanks for this romp through Romneyland. What a trip it was! Almost total self-delusion; one of the most amazing fantasies in modern politics, far exceeding the current delusions of little Teddie Cruz and his Tea Party cronies.
R21, it's very common for new websites to have bugs, that's why they went online 6 months before the sign up deadline. It'll get fixed. If every new website having growing pains was "a total disaster," we'd have no internet at all.
Thanks for this, OP and R5//R6. It warms my heart to see that others remember the idiocy of the right wing spinmeisters and punditry that right up until Karl Rove melted down on Faux Noise on election night, thought Mittens was going to win.
As for R17 worried he'd be "ripped apart," sweetie, let me remind you that the reason Obama has had such a difficult time implementing his stated goals is that we have the party of "NO!" willing to destroy the nation and the worldwide economy if they don't get their way. And they've prevented him from almost everything. Now that they've tried to take away his one achievement and nullify the election, Obama and the Dems have finally realized that if they don't fight as dirty as the Pubbies, they won't have anything to fight for in a few years.
Thank man-in-sky that Ted Cruz and teatards came along and overplayed their hands. Not that the Dems won't still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but now that Obama is scared of losing his legacy, and the base stood up to him on Libya, we might actually get some of the change we voted for in 2008.
[quote]Pundits like Noonan can make these predictions that are 100% wrong, with absolutely no basis in facts or reality, yet no one calls them out on their bullshit and idiocy, and they keep getting invited to share their "wisdom" on the Sunday political shows.
Which is why you'd do well to turn off your TV and forget anything anyone on any news network tells you.
TV news is entertainment designed to disseminate propaganda and sell pharmaceuticals.
The most satisfying visual for me was seeing Megyn being sent to the "Decision Room" at Fox by her male counterparts. The one offered to help her down the stairs from the stage so she could make that long walk through the hallways. There she was told that the boys in the backroom were 99.95% that President Obama had won re-election.
The look on Karl Rove's face was everything you could ever want to see. Megyn at one point asked Karl about his math skills in trying to figure out a way to make Romney come out ahead. She said something like: Is that the math you use to make yourself feel better?"
Karl was not amused.
R21, I know 5 people who signed up this week. All but one of them found pretty significant savings, like 30%, over their previous plans. The one that didn't? Well, he couldn't get insurance before Obamacare due to pre existing conditions. Now he has it for the first time in years thanks to Obamacare. .
You're a fucking idiot, btw.
Thank you for the reminder, OP, that the Repubs are invested in denying reality. It warms my heart to remember how Romney was so thoroughly taken by surprise on election night that he didn't even have a concession speech planned. The Repubs saw the pre-election polling but were convinced the polling was wrong, because it wasn't what they wanted to see.
They deny evolution, global warming, the reality of polling numbers, the possibility of the economy tanking if the Repubs in Congress lead us into default.
Really, these are not sane human beings.