Shutting down the government may end up costing Republicans control of the House of Representatives.
A series of polls released Sunday show just how damaging the shutdown has been for the GOP. The liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling compiled two dozen surveys, commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action, from House districts around the country, taken from Oct. 2 through Oct. 4. Sample sizes were between 600 and 700 voters in each district.
For Democrats to win a House majority, 17 seats would need to switch to their party's favor. Results show that would be within reach, as Republican incumbents are behind in 17 of the districts analyzed: CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, IL-13, KY-06, MI-01, MI-07, MI-11, NY-19, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, WI-07. In four districts, the incumbent Republican fell behind after respondents were told their representative supported the government shutdown: CA-10, NY-11, NY-23, VA-02. Three districts saw GOP incumbents maintain their hold over their Democratic challengers, even after hearing their elected officials' views on the shutdown, including CA-21, NV-03 and OH-06.
Back in 2012, Democrats picked up eight seats in the House, closing the gap of Republican control to 234-201.
If the House falls to the Republicans, Obama will turn the country communist.
Didn't they jerrymander it all though?
Yes, R3. The House was gerrymandered to make more safe GOP districts and fewer swing sweats. Nate Silver and other analysts argued last year that the structural advantage remains with the Republicans in the House for at least another cycle.
However, that was before the government shutdown this year. If the Republicans drop significantly in support, the Democrats could give the GOP a closer run for the House next year than originally anticipated.
Too soon to tell, though. This is just one series of polls by PPP. But it's an interesting development.
This is the best news I've seen, if it's true. I intend to help make it happen. We need to treat 2014 as if it was a Presidential election year, and really get out here and turn out the vote.
In every single state there's at least on Republican that's vulnerable. Or one Democrat that needs our help. We can't afford to lose any seats, and we have to make sure we pick up at least 18-20 more seats. The fact is, I will be ecstatic if we get rid of Ryan, Cantor & Boehner. King would be nice too.
OK. So which wedge issue will they use? Do we think they'll be able to trot out Obamacare to scare people with next year? Will they pound on the ever shrinking deficit? Will they complain abut "spending" and criticize the President for bit doing enough? Will they demonize gays, play the race card, or use gun control?
One of the things we need to do, is look at our respective states. There are local issues that motivate voters. What are the issues that the GOP can invent or exploit to their advantage? What can the Dems do as far as local issues, to get people to the polls?
Remember. There are Senate seats in play too. If the GOP takes over the Senate we are fucked. We are losing some Democratic senators next year. We have to hold on to those seats too.
We need to look at the state legislatures and get ride of some of those reactionary cows too. Time to clean house. We should've never let 2010 happen. We can't afford it this time. No margin for error, no firewall.
Over half the vote in the last election in North Carolina was for Democrats. However, the state went solidly red due to the gerrymandering the idiotic Democrats allowed to happen prior to the election. The repukes in charge have now instituted the strictest anti-voting law in the country. Our only hope is that the Obama admin has sued this shitty state over the law.
You are deluded if you think the house will go blue in our lifetimes. The Koch Brothers have already committed to spending almost half a billion of daddy's dollars to get rid of "moderate" repukes and elect tea baggers. It will NOT get better. Money rules all elections in this fucked up country.
Also, they are betting on Democrats staying home in droves for the midterms. If we default on the debt, which is looking more and more likely, not only will that energize almost every Democrat to vote in 2014 it will swing independents and convert some Republicans as well.
Would be an awful way to rout these fucking assholes from office, as the country and the world in general will be in economic chaos. The damage to *this* generation in some ways will be permanent (many of you who thought you were safe in your job and lifestyle in general are in for a rough ride).
But at least the issue of majority rule will be re-entrenched. For a little while at least.
Let us pray.
The only thing that makes the Tea Party gimmick work is convincing the rubes that they are part of a powerful and growing revolutionary movement. Seeing this massive, highly publicized putsch go down in flames is not going to be energizing to the base. Chances are they will feel angry and betrayed and frustrated and stay home the next election cycle nursing their hurt fee-fees--much as the progressives did in '10 when Obama didn't live up to all their insanely unrealistic expectations of him.
As for the Koch brothers and Sheldon Adelson and ALEC et al., money only goes so far in American politics. There's still that inconvenient element of the vote. And gerrymandering doesn't mean squat if that district doesn't get its ass to the polls.
The Rethugs gerrymandered a number of seats, but not all of them. There are likely enough Repukes in "marginal" districts to be able to swing the House to the Dems in 2014 -- especially if the Know-Nothing Tea Party members cause the US to default.
Money is an extremely important component to elections, but it can't always buy you a win. Just ask Meg Whitman and Linda McMahon.
They're not in grave danger of anything. They're keeping the House and the Senate is still up in the air.
Sorry, that is a year away and Americans have very short memories. If 2013 counted, maybe the Dems would gain some seats. But next year, everyone will have forgotten and moved on.
r14 is correct. The election is in 13 months, not today. This shutdown will mean nothing by then.
What the Dems need to do between now and then is a vigorous get-out-the-vote campaign. Republicans are much better about showing up to the polls for off-year elections than Democrats are. That needs to be directly addressed and changed.
And your basis for that claim is what, exactly, R13? If you want to make the point that it's too early to predict, okay. But the point of the original post and the polls it links to is that Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot and that this may have consequences in 2014. Are you prepared to argue with that?
Now if only they'd shoot themselves in the HEAD we might get somewhere.
The head is empty. They need to aim for the ass to do some real damage.
Nothin' will stand between you and Obama's Death Panels if the Democrats take the House.
No way this shutdown matters come the 2014 midterms. This will be forgotten about, if not spun as a Democratic failure.
Besides, even if the Democrats manage to win back the house, who is to say that they could keep those seats in the 2016 elections? Democrats made some inroads in 1998, and should have made even more in 2000 given that the Republican party had impeached the president over a personal affair. We saw how that turned out.
The key question for me is will this shutdown produce anger (ie kick the Republicans out since they've proven they can't govern) or apathy (a pox on both their houses, a la 2000)? My guess is apathy, since that seems to be the default position for most Americans and the media.
The point of polling this, and polling this early, is not to say Democrats will take back the House, but to say we could take back the House. It serves several purposes: first, it scares the bejesus out of Pubbies who have stuck together over the CR and their ridiculous attempt to defund Obamacare. With the announcement of these polls, the pressure on a few to side with the Democrats on the discharge petition just increased tremendously. The only thing stopping them presently is the fear of being primaried, which would be a good thing (for Democrats) as a split conservative vote in these gerrymandered districts could result in pickup of a few seats. (Think of how Claire McCaskill used Todd Akin.)
Second, it serves to motivate the Democrats to stiffen their spines. And, it's more than a year from the elections, and we have the debt ceiling and the actual budget to get through; if the Dems manage to stick together and put it to the Pubbies, the numbers can and will shift even more towards them. Recent polls show that Dems have better numbers on the economy in general. And believe me, when the social security checks stop coming, the teatards are going to be in a panic.
But to those who say the elections are more than a year away and we'll forget about the shutdown, let me remind you of the fact that it was the shutdown in 95/96 that lead to the Dems taking back the House in 98 -- an even longer period of time than present -- and, Obamacare was passed at about this time in 2009, which lead to the 2010 debacle. The advantage and simultaneous problem is that Pubbies hold a grudge a lot longer then Dems.
And, Obama is still the president, and man-in-sky knows, he's just aching to kick the base in the teeth, which could cause a repeat of demoralization just like 2010. For the Dems to have any kind of a chance, Obama can't negotiate on social security (chained CPI), Medicare, or entitlements; areas in which he's already said he's willing to negotiate. I like the spine he's shown over the past month, but I wasn't born yesterday, and I remember how he caved - repeatedly - in 2009 during and after the healthcare vote and how demoralizing it was to work as hard as we did to elect him and only have him turn around and act like he owed Pubbies more than his base. I hope he's woken up and realized that the country is divided and he can't fix it. Not with the Koch suckers throwing around hundreds of millions of dollars and teatards impervious to reason and reality.
I said it all during the presidential season. The presidential election is not nearly as important as getting the House and Senate under rational control. The whole world is embarrassed for the U.S. and our ignorant politics.
We need good sane people in these slots. NOW.
The irony is that this is the are we as individuals DO have the most influence on .
There's no direct line to Barack Obama, but the smaller town you live in, the more likely you are to have access to YOUR local leaders. You CAN affect them — you CAN inform your own city and state population as to how their local leaders' policies affect their day to day lives. This is where we ALL have influence and these are the people who have the MOST influence on National Policy.
Yet this is where people act the most helpless. It's a myth.
I prefer to think of this as "Happy Happy Joy Joy We'll All Be Safe Again", rather than "Grave Danger"
I money was the main factor in getting these Neanderthals elected, then Karl Rove and the Koch brothers, combined with Mitt Romney should have won everything last year. And they didn't. Stupid is as stupid does.
Is there any other kind?
Good news, but Dems are the verge of losing the Senate so it's not like we don't have our work cut out for us.
Americans have a notoriously poor memory. The Repubs will merely weather this storm, and then rely on the fact that most Americans will have forgotten all about these shenanigans. They will also likely come up with distracting, divisive issues (as has already been stated by others in this thread) just before the general election in 2014.
[quote]What the Dems need to do between now and then is a vigorous get-out-the-vote campaign. Republicans are much better about showing up to the polls for off-year elections than Democrats are. That needs to be directly addressed and changed.
Yep. Republicans will turn out to vote in droves for ANY Republican. For some Democrats, witness 2010, having a good pout because the candidates aren't perfect for XYZ interest group is more important than keeping Republicans away from the levers of power.
While I'm skeptical that Democrats take back the House in 2014, or in any election until 2020 or even 2022, if voters do turn out for Democrats in House races, wouldn't they also vote for Democrats in Senate races, too? The Democrats have some senators in states that aren't hospitable to Democrats (Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia). It's probably a Republican House and Senate that gets sworn in 2015, and will stay that way until the next election. 2016 is a better looking map for Democrats (look it up on wiki to see which senators are up for re-election). The best situation for Democrats would be minimal loses in 2014 (remember: they were supposed to lose the senate in 2010 and 2012) and an energized base in 2016 that picks up some seats in the Senate and which lets them keep the White House.
They deserve to lose the house, lose more seats in the Senate, and to lose the Presidency in 2016.
They've proven themselves to be dangerously irresponsible, incompetent, and incapable of governing.
GOP made a desperate attempt to get democrats including the president to the same table AND at the same time blaming them. GOP is scared of losing the House, you could almost smell the fear through tv set.
[quote]it was the shutdown in 95/96 that lead to the Dems taking back the House in 98
The Dems did not take the house in 98.
Unless you look at the last 60 years, R32. If you want peace, prosperity (for all), a strong social safety net, jobs, national defense, and safety from terrorist attacks, vote Democratic. Or do I need to remind you that the single largest attack happened on the Pubbies watch, the financial collapse happened on the Pubbies watch, we launched -- and lost -- a bogus war on the Pubbies watch, and it is the Pubbies in the House that have brought the country a lowered credit rating, a drawn out recession, high unemployment and general malaise?
Like petulant children, Pubbies would rather destroy the country than share. Seems like we need to send Pubbies back to kindergarten where they can learn to be civilized human beings. You know, basic concepts like not lying, sharing with others, being kind to the less fortunate...
Obama will "compromise" with them on slashing Social Security and Medicare and disillusioned dems will stay home in droves.
When things look bleakest for repugs, Obama always throws them a life line.
I must have said this in another thread, but whatever. We need 18-20 seats in the House. We ought to be able to do that in 2014. And we ought to be able to hold on to if not gain in the Seante. We have to. It's that simple. We have to get out the fucking vote. We have to target.
Right now, in every single state, there are people running, or thinking about running for the state legislature. People are running or thinking about running for Secretary of State and State attorney General. People are running or thinking about running for the state courts.
We need to engage at every level. We need to think about the people who are not allowed Medicaid because their asshole governors are opting out. We need to get rid of the people who are dragging their feet depriving people of health insurance because they hate Obama.
We need to get rid of the people who support voter suppression and who demonize Gays and have been blocking our civil rights. Fuck these motherfuckers. Get involved in your local and state Democratic Party organizations. Find out what's going on.
Find out what the so-called "wedge issues" are that will be used against us. More important, find out which local issues will get our people out to vote.
The Democratic Party is far from perfect, but it's our best chance. We need to stay engaged. When we elect people to public office that's the beginning not the end of our involvement.
[quote]The Democrats have some senators in states that aren't hospitable to Democrats (Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia).
It's true that a couple of the Democratic Senators in these states are vulnerable, but the first 3 may be maintainable for the Democrats. Mark Begich appears to be ahead so far in Alaska, and Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu are hanging on in Arkansas and Louisiana. It's the West Virginia seat that is the most vulnerable out of those four because long-term incumbent Jay Rockefeller is retiring.
The Senate seats in Montana and South Dakota will also be at risk since Max Bacchus and Tim Johnson are retiring.
Larry Sabato and Charlie Cook have been tauting Republican advantages attributed to historical voting pattern of midterms favoring opposition party (to that of the White House).
A break in pattern has strong potential in next month's Virginia gubernatorial election. That state has been on a roll of electing governors opposite a president's party. But Ken Cuccinelli has been behind for some time, and Terry McAuliffe is liable to win it in a Democratic pickup.
Next year will depend on turnout - which party will have more. An estimated 26 to 30 percent of those who vote for the U.S. House in presidential years do not do so in midterm election years. The last years on record for either presidential party to have increases, in a midterm year, was in 1998 (Democrats) and 2002 (Republicans). It didn't make enough of a difference in 1998 to flip the Republican-majority House. It did flip the Senate in 2002. (That came after Jim Jeffords, of Vermont, flipped himself in 2001 from Republican to independent and caucused with the Democrats.) The 1998 outcome did end Newt Gingrich as speaker. So, if this were to materialize, for the Democrats in 2014, it may do for the same for current speaker John Boehner.
The historical voting pattern would normally be for the Democrats to win back the House in a year they also win the presidency. (This was applicable with Harry Truman in 1948.) Or that they win back the House in a midterm election with a current Republican president. (That was the case more recently with 2006.)
Does anyone else think that any economic catastrophe that might result from a default or extended shutdown could favor the Republicans? If shit hits the fan, and it looks like that could happen, then who is to say that the "truth is in the middle" media, and the Republican spin machine wouldn't make 2016 a favorable election for Republicans? This shut down is not hurting the Republicans that badly, and public opinion thus far regarding a default is closely split. I think it is a huge mistake to assume that Republicans will pay any price for this.
[quote]The whole world is embarrassed for the U.S. and our ignorant politics.
Actually, we really don't give a shit.
[quote]Does anyone else think that any economic catastrophe that might result from a default or extended shutdown could favor the Republicans?
No. Not only do the polls show more people blaming Republicans for the shutdown and default but too many Republicans are on record as saying that a default is no big deal.
[quote]If shit hits the fan, and it looks like that could happen, then who is to say that the "truth is in the middle" media, and the Republican spin machine wouldn't make 2016 a favorable election for Republicans?
See above. You've got too many Republicans who would have to eat their words. And too many people who don't want the government shut down and defaulting over Obamacare. The Republicans own this.
[quote]This shut down is not hurting the Republicans that badly
Actually, it is, which is why we're seeing cracks.
[quote]I think it is a huge mistake to assume that Republicans will pay any price for this.
[Shrug] That's what the available data say, though. If you have other data, let's see it.
The Republicans have the propaganda machine at Fox telling low information voters (euphemism for "morons") that defaulting is no problem. These people are so stupid they don't realize that the Republican argument is essentially, "we never defaulted before, and we have 225 year record of paying our bills, so there will be no damage to our credit."
We have good credit because we didn't have moronic Teabaggers trying to destroy America in Congress before. Now we do.
Just keep at it GOP. Insuring another third straight loss.
That's why the barricades to the parks are being called BARRYCADES derisively?
It is BO's decision to keep the parks closed, yet open the WA DC mall for the illegal immigrant rally.
No one thinks this will bite D's in the ass in 2014? Also the poll is by a very very biased pollster PPP. I'll wait to see what Nate says, Nate is actually a lot less biased.
Also in California, the SJ Mercury News just posted that Obama-supporters are just now figuring out that they're going to have to pay $10k a year for health insurance. This is going to have dire consequences throughout the USA.
Great argument, r48. Lots of pertinent facts marshalled.
R45 its too bad psychos took over your party.
R45 is a paid shill for the Teapublican Party.
President Stompy Foot's approval rating is now at 37%
Associated Press/GFK survey
[quote]Obama's approval now down to 37% !
Bachmann: By then it will be too late! Buwahahahaha!
In an interview Saturday with Jan Markell on the Christian radio program "Understanding the Times," Bachmann accused President Barack Obama of giving aid to terrorists. This, she says, is solid evidence that we have entered the Last Days.
"I’m a believer in Jesus Christ, as I look at the End Times scripture, this says to me that the leaf is on the fig tree and we are to understand the signs of the times, which is your ministry, we are to understand where we are in God’s end time history."
"the baton of global leadership has been passed by America to the Mullahs, the Marxist world, and other dark forces,"
“Rather than seeing this as a negative, we need to rejoice, Maranatha, come Lord Jesus, His day is at hand,” Bachmann said. “When we see up is down and right is called wrong, when this is happening, we were told this: that these days would be as the days of Noah.”
Congress has a 5% approval rating (same poll, r53)
Obama is over seven times more popular than Congress.
Who are the fucking idiots in that 5%? Teabaggers?
I wish all of them would lose their houses.
Today Republican party down to lowest % approval of either party since Gallup started asking this question: 28% and continues to plummet.