The Closet Thing This Underdeveloped Race Has To a Lock:
1. Michael Fassbender (Twelve Years a Slave)
Look Like Very Strong Contenders (On Paper -- We Haven't Seen):
2. Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
4. Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
5. Jared Leto (The Dallas Buyers Club)
Best Shots From What We've Seen... It Just Depends On How Their Competition Shapes Up:
7. George Clooney (Gravity)
8. John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis)
9. Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
10. Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners)
11. Harrison Ford (42)
12. Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
Could Easily Be Major Contenders (We Really Know Nothing):
12. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
13. Javier Bardem (The Counselor)
14. Matthew McConaughey (The Wolf of Wall Street)
15. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
16. Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
17. Jeremy Renner (American Hustle)
18. Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief)
19. Woody Harrelson (Out of the Furnace)
Interesting race too. And, yes, it's still very early.
Anybody can fall if their film underperforms or gets lukewarm reviews.
Fassbender could finally get some recognition. At least a nomination.
He has been excellent, in challenging films for a few years now, but never got a nod from the Academy. Now is his time.
Poor Leo, though. His mean, white, racist plantation owner didn't get him a Best supporting Actor nod, but Fassbender will get one for a very similar role! But the tone of the movie is very different, I know. And then 1973(?) Gatsby will get a nomination over his TWO 2013 Gatsbies! Damn!
Boys from Foxcatcher could get nominations too.
Like for Fassbender, I think that Ruffalo has been reliable and servicable for years now. He probably deserves a second nomination.
The Foxcatcher team is pushing Carell for Best Lead, but I think he would have had better chances as a Best supporting actor.Their mistake.
And I know I could get laughed out of the thread for that, but what about ... Channing Tatum ? If he gives a good, touching performance as Mark Schultz? We could be surprised. But, no, too much prejudice at this point. Maybe in some years, IF he starts to and keeps on giving inspired performances.
Yes, I'm a Bennet Believer.
What else ? Harrison Ford in 42.
Maybe McConaughey in WoWS.
Ad if the Book Thief has some success: Geoffrey Rush.
As for Tom Hanks as Walt Disney, only if the number of worthy candidates is scarce...
You have not seen Edgar Ramirez as Bolivar which premieres tomorrow. that will change things big time as far as Oscar nominations.
Liam James - the Way Way Back
James Franco - Springbreakers no doubt one of the best performances of the year. However, I would like it even more if one of the female protagonists nabs a nomination. IMO, those four gave impressive performances.
lol @ the Oscar campaign for Springbreakers. It actually goes very well with the film.
If Casey Affleck is not nominated as Best Actor for Ain't Them Bodies Saint (by all accounts it's an electric performance) I can totally see the academy nominating him for Supporting as a consolation price.
Obviously Michael Fassbender is a very strong candidate.
Ben Foster - Ain't The Bodies Saint
Enough with Clooney and Hanks. Spread the wealth. Hanks is doing his usual routine in Saving Mr. Banks. And I've yet to read what's so great about Gravity that it merits all this awards buzz other than kissing George's ass as usual. And I like some of George's work, but he's not Coppola or Kubrick.
Baldwin? Please. For playing himself?
If Matt McConaughey gets two Oscar nominations this year, it will prove how much of a joke it's become.
Going from reviews of the screenplay, Colin Farrell could end up being a surprise nomination for Saving Mr Banks. The trailer gives nothing away, but he has a substantial role.
Have you seen Mud? because Matthew was always praised since a rough cut early on. Actually that was supposed to be his Oscar nomination.
Who could have predicted he would have not one but TWO great performances this year?
Killer Joe, Mud, and The Dallas Buyers Club
He's on a roll!
I saw BLUE JASMINE yesterday. Thought Alec Baldwin was good in it but nothing about the role or the performance is, in my opinion, worthy of an Oscar nod. If they must nominate a supporting performance by a male actor from that film, I'd go more with Bobby Cannavale than Baldwin.
r7, totally agree! I forgot all about Killer Joe. I have it but haven't watched it yet but I remember all the critics, and my best friend and fellow cinephile, actually raving about it. Maybe this will be Sunday night's viewing.
Killer Joe is a LOT of movie. It's on HBO GO.
I do think James Franco deserves a nom. Spring Breakers was outrageously entertaining and he gave a killer performance. Fully realized and unlike nothing he'd ever done before.
He may be fine in the movie, but he's also a douche. The Academy has not forgiven him for the hosting debacle from a couple of years ago.
Unless it's a VERY weak field this year, no nom for El Artiste.
Mark Ruffalo is out since Foxcatcher has moved to 2014.
Fassbender, Clooney, Baldwin, Hanks and another not listed here will be the nominees.
Fassy for Supporting, it'll almost make up for him being robbed of the Oscar when he did Shame.
For Best Actor - it's Redford, Redford, Redford, Redford aaaaaaand Redford. No contest.
Mud and Spring Breakers have already been forgotten
There's no way Baldwin is getting nominated for Blue Jasmine. What on earth did he do in that movie that was different from what he does on TV and in commercials?
Since Matthew M is pretty much guaranteed a nomination for Dallas Buyers Club, he won't get one here. Hanks' best chance is his Best Actor nom for Captain Phillips. However, if Saving Mr. Banks turns out to be terrific, maybe he would squeeze in two in one year, but I doubt it.
Fassbender and Clooney, absolutely. Jared Leto (for DBC) and Daniel Bruhl (Rush - or even Fifth Estate) also likely, but not guaranteed. Harrison may get the "honoring an old veteran actor" nom in Supporting that Redford will be getting in Best Actor.