The Three To Beat At This Point:
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
Look Like Very Strong Contenders (On Paper -- We Haven't Seen):
4. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
5. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
6. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
7. Naomi Watts (Diana)
8. Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco)
We've Seen Them & They Are Deserving... It Just Depends On How Their Competition Shapes Up:
9. Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
10. Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
11. Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant)
12. Berenice Bejo (The Past)
Could Easily Be Contenders:
13. Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)
14. Felicity Jones (The Invisible Woman)
15. Reese Witherspoon (The Good Lie)
16. Sophie Nélisse (The Book Thief)
The Movies Are Probably Too Small To Make This Heated Race, But They Are All Great:
17. Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
18. Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
19. Adèle Exarchopoulos (Blue
is the Warmest Color)
20. Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
Interesting. I'm surprised Oprah and Octavia Spencer are not on the list. They where in "ok" movies but gave good perfomances.
They are in supporting, R2.
I've seen both The Butler and Fruitvale Station. In no way could either Winfrey or Spencer be considered to be leading roles in this films. They may well be up for Best Supporting, though I've seen both women do better work before in better roles (Oprah in The Color Purple, and Spencer in The Help).
I would expect either Kidman or Watts (although probably not both of them) to have a shot at a nomination if their films are any good. Watts is taking the bigger risk (and is overdue for an Oscar), and if she pulls it off I expect she'll be rewarded for it.
Posted in another thread:
Oscar Race for Best Actress Already Overcrowded:
Liza Minnelli is likely to be a double nominee for her portrayal of Hush Puppy in The Butler, and as astronaut, Dr. Tansy Hinkelman, in Gravity.
I nominate Glenn Close, for her almost believable impersonation of a woman!
Enough of this Meryl stuff. She's not in this category!
Just saw a screening of "Lucky Them" at TIFF, and I have to say Toni Collette has a shot, and possibly Thomas Haden Church for best supporting actor. They have great chemistry.
Watts is the first big casualty because her film is getting destroyed by the critics. Poor thing.
We have two locks for this race:
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock- Gravity
But we also have another great performance by
Judy Dench- Philomena
and funny enough French actresses are once again in the mix. Actually I expect one of
Berenice Bejo (well technically Argetinian)- The Past
Adèle Exarchopoulos - Blue is The Warmest Color
Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant
to make the top five.
All the controversy surrounding Blue is The Warmest Color might just be enough for Adele to get noticed and probably leapfrog over Cotillard and Bejo.
I'm interested in the Toni Collette movie. IMO a very underrated actress.
Rooney Mara - Ain't Them Bodies Saints. Actually I'm predicting her film to do very well at the Oscars.
Melissa McCarthy for THE HEAT. I've explained this elsewhere. She'll sneak through like Tomei did, the comedic performance that stands out in a bunch of Ellen Terry scene-chewing "high drama" performances. Voters are tired of the pretense.
People will be inundated with the heavy dramatic stuff and be looking for something light and different. Academy voters will gratefully reach for the Heat screener instead of a 2-hour master class on high art like August: Osage County; Blue is the Warmest Color, etc.
I could easily see Rooney Mara or Greta Gerwig being nominated.
If we're going to follow Cannes, then Adèle Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color) rather than Berenice Bejo (The Past). And I love Bérénice Bejo, not crazy about the Kechiche movie so far- just placing my bets here.
I saw Short Term 12 at Locarno, where it got the warmest of receptions. The cast is certainly deserving, but I'd rather go for Keith Stanfield (who plays Marcus) for Best Supporting Actor. Brie larson may very well get an Independent Spirit Award, though.
Have no idea how good American Hustle may or may not be, but Amy Adams certainly needs her win. Classically trained, talented actress are few and far between in Hollywood.
So here's my vote:
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints) or Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha) - they won't be nominating both
Adèle Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color)
And, as a contender, Emma Thompson possibly making a comeback.
Agree with R15.
Also, didn't realise Toni Collette was underrated! United States of Tara certainly called for above-average acting skills...
True that she's hardly ever at the Oscars (was she nominated for The Hours? Maybe). But the Oscars aren't about talent. When Todd Haynes goes for Toni Collette when Julianne Moore isn't available for Velvet Goldmine, that says something right there.
[quote]Amy Adams certainly needs her win. Classically trained, talented actress are few and far between in Hollywood.
You're talking about her as if she were Dame Sybil Thorndike. before she came to Hollywood, Amy Adams was doing cheesy musicals at a dinner theatre in the Minneapolis suburbs.
[quote]Melissa McCarthy for THE HEAT.
When donkeys fly!
I like Adams as well and would like to see her rewarded, she's put in a lot of great performances over the past decade. I just don't think it will be this year, I think American Hustle will be a mess.
I'd rather see her nominated for something she has a strong chance of winning rather than lose for the 5th or 6th time and thereby cement her rep as a perennial loser in the eyes of Academy voters.
[quote]I'd rather see her nominated for something she has a strong chance of winning rather than lose for the 5th or 6th time and thereby cement her rep as a perennial loser in the eyes of Academy voters.
What are you implying?!
Agreed, R21. She's already been nominated much too often- needs to make an Oscar comeback in a few years.
Hope she doesn't win for that dreadful Janis Joplin project, though.
I predict a huge win for Reese. I just know that this is her year.
Surely you must be joking, R24. This being DL, I can only imagine you are.
I know that the Harvey Weinstein is going to push Meryl in Best Supporting Actress, but I don't think the Academy will go along with that. The only recent supporting nomination she's had was for "Adaptation", where she was with Nicolas Cage playing two roles, so it made sense.
Considering there are many other actresses in the movie with actual supporting roles (Margo Martindale, Juliette Lewis) I just don't see the Academy going along with it. They'll do what they did with Kate Winslet in The Reader and nominate her here (if she's worthy).
How is Bullock a lock? The movie hasn't even opened yet! Give me a break.
Emma pissed off too many people with her Audrey Hepburn remarks. Plus the movie looks too "twee" and commercial(in her own words) to truly be Academy awards material. It will rack up a few GG nominations, though. But it screams "sub-par" at best.
And Amy Adams is not overdue. Glenn Close is someone who is overdue. Amy just got lucky enough to rack up a couple of nominations in under ten years. She needs another ten to fifteen to be considered overdue.
Meryl is leading. If she goes in supporting, she can kiss beating Katharine Hepburn's four best actress Oscar record goodbye.
How Kate Hepburn is the most rewarded boggles the mind. She did play herself over and over.
Michelle Williams will be in a Harvey W. produced Holocaust movie next year, so look for her to win in 2015!
"Rooney Mara - Ain't Them Bodies Saints. Actually I'm predicting her film to do very well at the Oscars"
No way in hell is that faux-Terence Malick crapfest going to be nominated for anything.
Please note, 2 films once touted to be Best Actress Oscar contenders for their leads had barely publicized openings this weekend, because they turned out to be crapfests:
Jennifer Hudson's Winnie Mandela and Naomi Watts and Robin Wright in Adore.
I'm pretty sure Adore was panned right from the get go, at Sundance. The buzz was poisonous back in january.
Jennifer Hudson was never touted as a possible leading actress winner. lol
Aint Them Bodies Saints along with Fruitvale Station and The Spectacular Now were the three films that really garner buzz out of Sundance.
Sundance and Cannes mean less and less each year. It is all about Toronto and Telluride and to a lesser extent the NY Film Festival are all that matter now.
Gold Derby says Streep is now back in lead contention. August: Osage County screens tomorrow at TIFF, so we should know soon enough whether Meryl and/or Julia are contenders.
Cate Blanchett gives one of the great film performances in Blue Jasmine.
I have heard Sandra Bullock is great in Gravity.
That leaves Judi Dench. Not my year. Again.
Julia Delpy????? With those nipples???
I would love to see Melissa McCarthy be nominated and then rush up on the stage as Cate Blanchette accepts the Best Actress award. I'd love to see Melissa tackle Cate.
The Oscars needs something like this to make it more interesting.
[quote]The Oscars needs something like this to make it more interesting.
Though I found it somewhat silly at the time, looking back I must admit the year they had 5 former winners come onstage to present to the new winner was actually kind of classy. Not to say they should do this sort of thing every year but it did lend a touch of elegance to the proceedings.
R35, completely agree. Would love to see this again. I will always love too when Colin Firth gave out best actress and gracefully highlighted each actress. Pure class.
Nicole Kidman, Naomi Watts and Marion Cotillard are eliminated.
Diana is a bomb and Grace of Monaco and The Immigrant have been pushed to 2014.
And the best actress is... Oprah!
Yep. Buh-bye, Naomi Watts. Picture is a steamer.
So is it safe to say that three of the likely nominees at this point will be: Blanchett, Bullock, and Dench.
Any guesses as to who the other two might be.
Neely O'Hara for "Boxing Helen".
I saw Gravity last night. I'm not normally the biggest fan of Sandra Bullock, but she was fantastic and is a lock for a nomination.
My theory: Sandra will definitely be nominated for GRAVITY but Cate will claim victory for BLUE JASMINE. Why? Because the voters will weigh the fact that, though both are past winners, Cate still has no Best Actress Oscar and Sandra does, so they will take this opportunity to "fix" that, so to speak. Thankfully, it's a great performance by Cate and would not be an undeserving win.
I just saw GRAVITY yesterday by the way and Bullock is fucking amazing.
Also just based on their bodies of work, I think they'll feel a lot less guilty throwing a second statue at Blanchett than they would at Bullock.
This is an incredibly strong year for actresses.
r12 Of course she is!
Incredibly stupid thread.
Blanchett will win, enough said.
Hilary Swank is a 2-time Oscar winner, so I disagree with the assertion that the Academy is reluctant to throw multiple Oscars at actors with thin resumes. That said, Sandra more than made up for her fairly undeserved Oscar for The Blind Side by giving one of the best performances of the year in Gravity...but having seen several strong female performances this year, Cate Blanchette's (Blue Jasmine) is the best.
Does anyone else think that Julia Louis-Dreyfus could be a dark horse nominee for "Enough Said?" I don't think it's a stretch to put her in the same category as Sandra and Cate (having seen all of their performances).
And what has Swank done of note since winning that 2nd Oscar? Her career is moribund. She's one of the main reasons why voters are unlikely to award Bullock a 2nd lead acting award so soon after the first, even if she's blows everyone out of the water in this movie and likely deserves it.
[quote]And what has Swank done of note since winning that 2nd Oscar?
Frankly, like Halle this week, I won't be surprised to hear an announcement any day now that Swank will soon be starring in some TV series. Her film career has been stalled for quite a long while now.
Sandra has proven she can be funny,r49. Hilary,not so much.
Who's a lock for Supporting?
It certainly would be nice for Blanchett to win a Lead Actress Oscar. Right now she only has a Supporting Actress Oscar. Most people now acknowledge that she should have won for "Elizabeth" over Gwyneth Paltrow for "Shakespeare in Love".
It's not really fair to compare Bullock to Swank. Bullock is one of, if not the, biggest BO draw of the last twenty years. She's beyond A list. Hilary was great in two roles, and two roles only. I really hope Cate wins the Oscar, but, after seeing Gravity, am totally fine with Bullock winning her second.
I don't think Bullock will win. I do think, however, with her performance in Gravity, she will have silence naysayers and officially earn the Oscar for The Blind Side that many think she did not deserve.
She's guaranteed the nomination, though.
Bullock has had more than enough special attention from Hollywood.
The Blind Side was yucky but they probably figured they'd never get a chance to give her an award (and she has always been a likable person.)
Who else would you have given it to that year? Meryl in Julie and Julia was funny but the Amy Adams half of the film was hard to sit thru. Gaby Sidoube? Carey Mulligan? Helen Mirren again? Not a great year give it to Sandy she's made us lots of money over the years.
I personally think Sandy is a lock, as the role required unusual technical skill, and the film is a the kind of easy win Hollywood like to jump on board. It's totally middlebrow in a very exciting way. Oscar bait all the way.
That said, I understand why all the queens here loved Blanchette's Blanche. But I haven't heard the case for why it reflects well on Hollywood. Which, let's face it, is why the Academy hands out Oscars in the first place. It's always about awarding themselves.
So let me hear the insider baseball case on why all those old straight white men want to give it to Cate.
if you use the word queen r58 it means you hate yourself...learn it.
and figure out how to spell Cate's name.
Its time Cate took home the big one, only problem is she may have peaked too early, but Jasmine is a critical and popular success and she is totally cant-take-your-eyes-off-her in it.
I have not seen Gravity yet, but saw the trailer last week - how much of its success will be down to the staggering special effects? Bullock will be nominated, but it may be too soon since her last win.
The other main contender will be Judi Dench, with that topical sob story of the Irish woman looking for the child taken from her by the church - the novelty of seeing Dame Judi in this should clinch a nomination, and it should be a success once it opens. (The fraus will love it).
It looks like Harvey is keeping Grace of Monaco back for a while, so it wont be tainted with the terrible reviews for Naomi's Diana, which has been practically laughed off screens. What a mistake for the usually savvy Watts, so Nicole won't be in this mix this year.
It also looks like Blanchett has already started her campaign, she has done several tv and print interviews here in the UK. She deserves a Best Actress award now, if the likes (fill in the blanks) have one.
Kate Winslet should also be a nominee again, she always does 'quality' stuff now, but after her The Reader win, its too soon to give her another one, that would really go to her head !
Melissa McCarthy in Heat.
The race is down to Bullock and Blanchett. No one comes close. Not even Meryl.
Adams is still undseen
Adams has the worst luck when it comes to Oscars. I predict she won, though for SA. Till then she can join DiCaprio's club.
Philomena is such a snooze. Dench doesn't even do an Irish dialect very well. It's the old Magdalene Sisters story - such a cliche now. Mostly it's Dench and Steve Coogan driving with their seat belts on.
This film doesn't deserve any nominations. There are others who are far more worthy of the honour. Would love to see Dench left off this list. It's a boring movie. Can't imagine it will do any business in the States. Nobody will care.
R66 = Maggie Smith
[quote]It's not really fair to compare Bullock to Swank. Bullock is one of, if not the, biggest BO draw of the last twenty years.
When it comes to BO, we beg to differ.
I would venture to say that Bullock is a more consistent BO draw than Keanu (all he's really done since in the past 15 years is the Matrix series) and probably about even with Brad.
R69 misunderstands acronyms.
Haha. I totally did. Sometimes I can be a bit slow on the uptake.
[quote]It's not really fair to compare Bullock to Swank. Bullock is one of, if not the, biggest BO draw of the last twenty years.
Lol, what? Bullock was in a rut, commercially and critically and had starred in a number of flops and disappointments until 2009's The Proposal.
OP, you must lead a seriously boring life. Are you in a wheelchair or something like that?
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