Trudeau Liberals jump to seven-point lead over Tories
Thursday, May 2, 2013.
The Canadian Press
OTTAWA - Two weeks of Conservative attack ads have done little to dim Justin Trudeau's honeymoon with Canadians, a new poll suggests.
The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests the Liberal party jumped into a seven-point lead over the Conservatives over the two weeks that followed Trudeau's landslide leadership victory last month.
Liberal support stood at 35 per cent, while the Conservatives dropped to 28 and the NDP to 22. The Green party was at seven per cent.
That's the highest level of support for the Liberals since March 2009, when the selection of Michael Ignatieff as party leader briefly buoyed the party's fortunes.
Ignatieff subsequently led the party to its worst defeat in history in the 2011 election, which reduced the Liberals to a third-party rump.
Current Liberal support is not quite as high as the 36-per-cent peak reached by the NDP a year ago immediately following the election of its new leader, Tom Mulcair. New Democrats have been trending down since then, a spiral that accelerated over the last few months of the Liberal leadership contest.
Trudeau's honeymoon could yet prove as equally fleeting as those of new leaders before him. But for now at least, the poll suggests he has weathered the barrage of Tory television ads asserting that the new Liberal leader is "in way over his head."
The Conservatives began broadcasting the ads within hours of Trudeau's leadership victory on April 14.
"Things can certainly change in Canadian political opinion and, with two relatively untested leaders, I'd expect these numbers are still relatively soft," said Harris-Decima senior vice-president Doug Anderson.
"What we do know for certain is that more people are saying they'd vote Liberal than have felt inclined to say that in years. And it's better to be up than down."
The telephone poll of 2,008 Canadians was conducted April 18-28 and is considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times in 20.
It suggests the Liberals moved into a commanding lead in Trudeau's home province of Quebec, with 37 per cent to the NDP's 24. The Bloc Quebecois had 23 per cent support, the Conservatives nine per cent and the Greens five per cent.
Quebec, which was swept by the NDP in 2011, is key to Trudeau's plans for a Liberal comeback in the 2015 election.
The Liberals also held a slight lead in Ontario, another crucial battleground: 38 per cent compared with 34 per cent for the Conservatives, 20 per cent for the NDP and seven per cent of the Greens.
And they were well ahead in the Atlantic provinces, with 48 per cent to 27 for the NDP, 22 for the Conservatives and two for the Greens.
The NDP led in British Columbia, with 34 per cent to the 30 per cent for the Liberals, the Tories at 22 per cent and the Greens at 13 per cent.
The Conservatives led in Alberta with 58 per cent, compared with 22 per cent for the Liberals, 13 per cent for the Greens and seven per cent for the NDP.
They were also well ahead in Manitoba/Saskatchewan at 50 per cent, compared with 22 per cent for the Liberals, 21 per cent for the NDP and five for the Greens.
Time for Canada to dump the Bush/Cheney clones and return to fairness.
Expect an increasing lead as the Cons continue to allow Corporations to fire Canadian workers and import workers from India.
That's it?! Meanwhile, the libs will split the vote and Harper's remains ruler of Canada. I still can't believe they picked that clown Trudeau. The left is such a joke today. They're suppose to be the ones with a clue. Oh well, after they lose this election, perhaps they'll wake up and realize that this is a new Canada, and they'll restructure their philosophy. Canada is no longer a liberal oasis. It's Centre-Right.
r3, Canada is centre-right? WTF are you talking about?!? Even if the vote is split on the left again, the fact is the majority of Canadians vote left.
r4, they hardly vote. Don't come crying when Trudeau fails. The left was warned. They're tone-deaf, and yes, Canada is no longer left-wing. Deal with it, reposition your policies, or go extinct. It's that simple. The Left in America had to do this after the Reagan years. They only stopped after Obama stepped into power, and a new generation took over. That was over two decades of Blue Dog rule. You couldn't get elected unless you were Centre, while the Right could be as Right as it wanted. The one place you'll still find Blue Dogs is in places such as a the South. For two decades though, Blue Dogs were the mainstream for the Democratic Party. They no longer are. Again, what the Left in America had to do for two decades, now the Left in Canada has to do. Now you got Murdoch and co. running things in Canada. The Neocons that ruled during the Bush years hightailed it to the North. Some of America's most fiercest Neocons are right from Canada.
The left doesn't vote because they're disillusioned with the party. Immigration is also going to swing the country even further to the Right. Liberalism had a nice run. The money is pumping into the country, straight to the Right from the US. The left cannot compete with that backing. That's why Trudeau, who puts his foot in his mouth every time he opens it, took forever to respond to criticism with an ad. They don't have the resources to create such media.
Hiring a trust fund baby to represent the working class was the dumbest thing they left could have done. Trudeau doesn't understand the common man, and the voters know this. He's hollow, and dumb as a box of rocks. There's no telling him apart from Harper.
I'm prepared for more Harper. You can dream all you like. This is exactly what happened during the last election. I called it before that Harper would continue. There's no difference between then and now.
Canada is very much a right wing country now. It only appears left when compared to the USA.
As per R5, the Liberals need to deal with immigration - fast. It is a big issue which they are being blamed for causing.
Trudeaus name will get him elected, because the majority of voters, even in Canada, are fluffy about things like this. Will the Liberal party then be able to turn things around?, is the real question to their survivability as a party.
From the gay communities stand point, the flux of new immigrants coming into Canada from Eastern Europe, Russia and South and East Asia are incredibly anti-gay. So supporting any party who stops this immigration tide, would be in the technical interest of the gay community.
[quote]Trudeaus name will get him elected
Nope. His name is one of his biggest drawbacks. They see him as an elitist. He has no chance of getting into power. It's not even debatable. It shows the country that the left is out of touch.
Anyone who thinks the majority of Canadians are right-leaning is fucking idiotic.
I have seen post after post on DL from a group of delusional idiots posting that Canada is now a right-wing haven and isn't a liberal country anymore.
Do any of you idiots know how a parliamentary democracy works. Even though Harper and the Conservatives are in power, Canada is not therefore a conservative country.
The majority of the populace is liberal and left-leaning. You want to know how that's possible? It's possible because per our Parliamentary Democracy we have many representative political parties, 5 major ones in fact.
And do you know how many of the 5 are conservative. ONE!!
That's right 1, and the Liberal vote is split between 3 (The Liberal Party, The New Democrat Party, The Green Party) and 1 party the Bloq Québécois, who are mainly concerned with Quebec and policies relating to Quebec but who are also actual quite Liberal in the policies they support.
So what we end up with is a populace whose many Liberal voters are having their vote split and whose Conservative populace is not. This is the only reason Harper and the cons won. Canada and its people are Liberal, even if their government is not.
Left-wing/Liberal parties I'm Canada
The Liberal Party
The New Democrat Party
The Green Party
Party that supports left-wing policies:
The Conservative Party
*I'm Canada is obviously 'in Canada'
A Parliamentary democracy majority is basically a 5 year dictatorship. So technical voting semantics mean little. Plus, the Conservatives did not win the government in 2011, the Reform Party (Canada's Tea Party equal) did.
The Reform party killed the old Progressive Conservative Party and took over the name. The Current Canadian Conservative Party, is actually the old Reform Party wearing a stolen mask.
Canada's "Tea Party" got elected.
r9 has it. r5 sounds like a Conbot seeking to demoralize the left.
Trudeau has a much better chance of getting elected than Mulcair. Mulcair is an angry, out of touch man that lacks the ability to connect with voters in the same way as his predecessor, Jack Layton. The NDP is also full of Quebec separatists, and that is damaging Mulcair outside Quebec.
Trudeau is the only one who can eventually challenge the Conservatives - that's why Prime Minister Stephen Harper is launching attack ads against Trudeau and not Mulcair. He fears Trudeau more.
Trudeau is Canada's only hope now.
If the Reform/Conservative Party gets in again, Canada is over.
5 I suggest you go to basic Math class, the Liberals are 7 points ahead of the Tories and the combined left/liberal vote of the Liberals and NDP gives you 57 per cent to the Tories 28 per cent, and yet you say Canada is a right-wing nation?
12 If Harper loses it could actually be the right that splits again. A more right-wing leader than Harper could see the old PC elements split off or join the Liberals and a more moderate Tory leader than Harper could see the Wild Rose Party pick up where the Reform Party left off