Who doesn't know this? If any of them don't win it will be a shock. There is no suspense in the Oscars anymore. Maybe there will be an upset, but I doubt it.
Silver is great when it comes to elections between two major candidates, I don't know if his methodology is going to work with this year's oscars, for the following reasons:
1) it's not your typical oscar year in terms of the inevitability of pre-ordained winners in all the major categories
2) the winners are not nec. those who get the most first place votes, the winners are now determined by weighted rankings
3) he is deciding based on prior races, but some nominees were not even part of those prior races, including some nominees with growing momentum.
It seems to me that many are favoring DeNiro, Riva and even, a recent twist, Ang Lee for best director.
Apart from Hathaway and Day-Lewis, this is a relatively up for grabs oscar year.
r1, only three of those categories are locks. Director, Supp. Actor, and Best Actress are still close races.
Lawrence, though favored, is not a lock.
Those are everyone's Oscar predictions, because that's who's been winning the other awards.
See, I'm a genius statistician, too!
This is nonsense he can't base his predictions on actual voter surveys like he can with a political elections. This is all conjecture if you can't sample the voting population. And other awards don't count because population overlap is not even 50%.
Nate is enormously talented with the polls, numbers, and political analysis.
Stick with elections, Nate.
I wish he wouldn't make these predictions. If he gets any of them wrong (which I suspect he has), FOX News is never going to let us hear the end of it.
He was wrong about the Super Bowl. I think Nate is spreading himself too thin. Such things are too trivial for someone like him.
I could see an upset in the Best Actress category, although it's a long shot. They sometimes seem to backlash over inevitability so out of spite they could go with Sally Field.
I think Day Lewis has a lock on best actor.
I'm not so sure Lincoln won't win best picture either. It isn't a modern dramatic winner but I think it's going to be regarded as a solid, respectable classic over the years.
I say Naomi Watts for Best Actress will be the upset. I'll go in to the prediction racket if I turn out to be right. Also, can't shake the feeling Philip Seymour Hoffman is getting Supporting but not as strong a feeling as I have about Watts.
I'd love it if Naomi won!
I'm going to tag this thread to see how if Nate's predictions hold.
Silver admits his track record is not great - he expects to miss some. He's just aiming at a fair majority right.
Don't you twats bother to read the links?
Oh, I forgot. Some of you are under 35.
He's a poor excuse for a gay man, using statistics (and not imagined rivalries/visceral hatred) to choose Oscar winners!
You are mistaken, R16. It's the technologically illiterate over-35 crowd who has trouble understanding Silver's methods.
Jennifer Lawrence will win "Most trips to the Buffet Table"
Why isn't anyone counting Denzel W in, I think he did a far better job than DDL or any of these other actors!
And deserves the oscar
Denzel W. has played the same character for 30 years now, r20. Most overrated actor currently working in Hollywood.
In any case, Tommy Lee Jones won't win because his Golden Globe scowling has turned voters off. It's going to go to PSH.
And Riva will take best actress. As she should.
I vote for that REAL old bitch. Mama needs to get hers!
"Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway"
No! No! No! It's not supposed to happen this way! I'm supposed to go first. I've always been ready to go first! I-I don't think I can take this! I-I don't think I can take this! I-I just wanna *hit* somebody 'til they feel as bad as I do! I just wanna hit something! I wanna hit it hard!
I don't know who's more passionate - the people that think Anne doesn't deserve it, or the people who think Sally doesn't.
Yes Riva will take best actress
I would love to see Riva win, but will she even turn up? She won the BAFTA, but nothing else. However, as Nate SIlver knows, the Oscar race is all about popularity, not quality. Mediocrity will again reign, as it does every year.
At least Sally Field will, once again, be on my screen on Sunday evening!!!!
Emmanuelle Riva also won the National Society of Film Critics Best Actress award, among others. I saw Amour last weekend and thought she gave an Oscar worthy performance. I'd be happy if Christoph Waltz wins Best Supporting Actor. I loved his performance in Django.
If Argo wins best picture then the credit should go to Clooney who has a lot of friends in Hollywood. Both he and Henslov are keeping a low profile in public but you know they are working it behind the scenes. It's odd that Affleck forgets to thank them and is adamant that people are reminded that he is also a producer on the film. Is it a case of an out of control actor's ego, ingratitude or is he just forgetful?
DDL is the definition of hammy. Three Oscars for chewing the scenery? Two was bad enough.
Washington is a brilliant actor, but they won't dare give him a third Oscar.
Jackman should win this.
Two misses. Nothing to write home about.
R29, I'm curious what Clooney did as producer vs his partner, Grant Henslov, and oh yes, Benjamin.
Lynn Stairmaster and the Streep Troll were wrong on almost every prediction.
Streep Troll delights in making predictions that will never happen. Even if some of them would be the better choice. Prepare for the worst when August Osage County is released.