Last minute Oscar predictions from the NYTimes Carpetbagger

This guy is usually pretty good for things like this. It looks like the Oscars are going to go completely differently from what people thought when the nominations were announced. here's what look to be the favorites for each race, according to the NY Times today: Picture: Argo (a month ago it looked to be Lincoln) Director: Ang Lee (a month ago it looked to be Spielberg) Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (no change) Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, with Emmanuelle Riva a close contender (a month ago it looked to be Chastain who was the close contender) Supporting Actor: Robert de Niro (a month ago it looked to be Tommy Lee Jones) Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (no change, though Sally Field was a much closer contender a month ago) Adapted Screenplay: Argo (a month ago it looked to be "Lincoln," which the Times says now is not even a contender) Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty (no change)

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• I really hope they don't give it to Lawrence. That's the only category I would be disappointed, if it turned out that way.

• I'd also be disappointed if it went to Lawrence. I am baffled why this performance has received so much attention--it just was not that well written of a character. She was terrific in "Winter's Bone," but this performance left me cold. I hope it goes to Riva.

• Has the Academy completely forgottwn how Anne Hathaway deliberately, publicly and unforgivingly humiliated Sally Field in her Golden Globes speech by harping endlessly on The Flying Nun? That alone should have driven hordes of voters into Sally's corner. Who wants their faces rubbed in their worst career embarassment? Hopefully, li'l Miss Annie experiences the same mortification when her expected win Sunday night evaporates into Sally's hands.

• Man, if Ang Lee can pull that upset, I will be on my feet cheering. I haven't heard his name since noms came out and now... serioiusly, think of that undertaking vs. the claustrophobic shots Russell did in SLP. Ang made a piece of friggin' art. Easy to forgive flaws of first and last reel now that Affleck isn't in the running. Does anyone really want Spielberg to win again for a movie most of us will run away from forever?

• Would love it if Sally pulled an Anna Paquin on AnnE.

• I haven't watched the Oscars in three years, but anything which makes Steven Spielberg an loser sounds like good TV to me. I'll also be glad when it's over so that the crazed "AnnE" loon will go the fuck away and hopefully die.

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• Les Miserables deserves Best Picture.

• Hopefully not. Wouldn't they embarrass themselves by awarding Argo best picture, since they haven't even nominated Affleck? Would be a bad move. I'm okay with Lincoln or Pi winning the big awards. I hope Waltz or maybe Hoffman wins best supporting.

• Am I the only one that wasn't impressed with Argo? Ben's character had no discernible personality.

• It seems like a lot of the time the winner for Best Original Screenplay is the one they would've given Best Picture to if they had the balls.

• Argo over Lincoln for adapted? How much licking does Ben's ass need?

• No, you're not alone, r9. It's an entertaining film, but it doesn't hold up well to any substantive scrutiny of plot or screenplay. It's a flick meant to be consumed and forgotten. A shame that this is the movie for which Affleck is gaining so much praise and recognition.

• Life of Pi would be fun to watch stoned but otherwise (which I was) it's a snoozefest.

• Well Riva has just won the Cesar Award to go with her BAFTA. If she doesn't win the Oscar, she can take comfort in those 2 awards at least.

• I'm praying AnnE gets the win. It will be such fun watching DL's numerous AnnE' haters heads explode in unison.

• I actually really like Lawrence's performance. Playing crazy isn't easy and she did it very well. However, her performance just wasn't as heartbreaking or memorable as Riva's. Not Lawrence's fault. She can only do what the script calls for. I think Lawrence will win, and I would be fine with that if it wasn't for Riva's tour de force.

• r3 = complete waste of bandwidth. Cram it, crazy.

• Such a tired, stupid comment r15. She is the favorite since forever and you are just a silly fangirl. "haters heads explode" Grow up.

• No, R15, our heads would explode if she didn't win. She's been the favorite all season and has won every prize already. That's one of the reasons she was getting so much grief - she was pretending to be surprised among other things.

• I pray she doesn't win. She needs to hit earth hard. Then maybe she'll start being interesting on screen and off.

• If AnnE loses the sonic boom created by 1,000,000 queens simultaneously gasping will decimate West Hollywood.

• ZDT is an original screenplay? Seems weird. I'd put money on Amour personally. I think Bigelow's lack of a nomination speaks to a general lackluster feeling towards ZDT.

• I totally don't understand the love for Argo. It's a good movie. But that's all it is. Good, workmanlike filmmaking. But every other best picture nominee seems more deserving than Argo.

• R23, I agree. [quote] I think Bigelow's lack of a nomination speaks to a general lackluster feeling towards ZDT Why isn't the same true of Argo?

• I agree, R22, the supposed true story of capturing Osama bin Laden isn't based on existing material? Like, documents even? Or does it have to be a published book or magazine article to count? still...

• maybe the vote will be split with Lawrence and Riva, and Chastain will win