JLaw peaked too early, she's too young, the movie is overpraised, as is her performance. She'll win in a few years, but not for this.
Chastain is too bland and unremarkable. Not winning.
No one else is in the running.
Riva is stunning everyone with the perormance and a late surge in the vote secured it for her. Those voters who didn't see AMOUR (and you'd be surprised how few there were that missed it) were convinced by other voters, reviews, press, and chatter. It goes to Riva.
You heard it here first.
Not a chance. Quvenzhane Wallis is taking it home on Oscar night! Youngest ever winner of Best Actress and only the second African American winner in that category.
And everyone will have forgotten who won any of the awards in three weeks.
Nope, r1. I've polled several voters and every single one is voting for Riva, including myself.
Amour is a timeless story applying to any nationality, it has universal appeal - we all have to deal with ageing and death or seen our parents do so.
The big travesty is that Trintignant was not nominated, but then they gave it to an undeserving French actor last year ...
my money has been on Riva from the start, which the Baftas confirmed.
Riva is fine but I would have preferred Anouk Aimee or Jeanne Moreau in the role.
2 m's, r1: Emmaneulle !
They should give it to Lawrence. Another prize to an old lady in a foreign-language film is another step towards insignificance.
"They should give it to Lawrence. Another prize to an old lady in a foreign-language film is another step towards insignificance."
Giving it to Julia Roberts was SO MUCH better!
And she deserves to win too. Her competition pulled out all the stops and basically turned in performances that have already won Oscars (and in Naomi Watts's case, she turned in the same performance that won her a nomination for 21 Grams). Riva was mesmerizing.
[quote]Giving it to Julia Roberts was SO MUCH better!
Or Reese Witherspoon!
I think you're groping for the word "irrelevance", R7. And, no, choosing Emmanuelle Riva—the best of the five nominated women—would not tip the scales towards that.
I actually like Jennifer, Jessica, and Naomi and think they are all very talented with very solid bodies of work behind them (I didn't see Quvenzhane's movie.) On the other hand, I didn't know much about Riva other than Hiroshima, Mon Amour, but her performance is in a league of its own. I honestly cannot see anybody with any sense of objectivity not voting for her.
I think she will win as well. Hers is the most outstanding work by a leading actress this year. The facts that she has given superb performances before, starting with Hiroshima, mon amour 54 years ago, and that she will be celebrating her 86th birthday on oscar night may help get her win. But they don't change the fact that she actually deserves it for this performance.
r2, there were three performances this year that will be remembered for a long time: Day-Lewis's, Trintignant's and Riva's.
Agreed. And it may be seen as an upset.
Will anyone ever need to sit through Lincoln again, #13?
No. It's an Oscar-baiter, what Quentin Tarantino calls "history with a capital H".
I am rooting for Riva. And given that the AGE of AMPAS is around her age I'm betting she'll win.
The Academy is filled with old vain men, and they have no desire to see their diaper-swaddled crone wives up on stage, they want to see their hired girlfriends up on stage. Jennifer Lawrence's tits will surround the statue so nicely up there. She wins.
There's a lot of old women in the Academy too. I would guess old women outnumber old men in the Academy since old women outnumber old men in the non-Academy world.
So Riva will win due to the preponderance of old women in the academy.
"Will anyone ever need to sit through Lincoln again, #13?"
I was talking about Day-Lewis's performance, not whether Lincoln is a movie that people will see again.
I have seen great and memorable performances in many movies I would never want to see again. Haven't you?
Just saw Zero Dark Thirty and I think Chastain has it in the bag.
If she doesn't, people are going to be saying for a great many years that she was robbed.
People (in America) have never said her name before the nominaton, and will never say it again after the ceremony.
Interesting. I've been hearing of a surprising groundswell of support for Naomi Watts.
I saw The Impossible, and while it had a sensation tsunami, after that it was kind of like a big-budget Lifetime movie. But Watts was moving, especially one long scream after the water carried her kids away.
I'm not a voter, but it does seem like there's a lot of support for Riva. I want her to win badly so I don't know if I'm just deluding myself by seeing and hearing what I want to hear. I mean Nicole Kidman has mentioned how extraordinary Riva was and that any actor could see that; however, how likely it is that Kidman would vote for Riva rather than her own best friend, Naomi Watts? I'm sure there are plenty of people who just vote for their friends and Riva and Haneke are kind of the outsiders in Hollywood in comaparison to the rest of the other nominees and their movies.
It ain't happening. No way. This Sunday is thr coronation for Jennifer Lawrence, not an impending funeral for Emmanuelle Riva
It's Riva's, the only question is, will it be posthumous?
I've watched every nominated film and performance in the major categories.
And Riva's performance is riveting.
If an American actress with her pedigree delivered a performance like that at 84 or 85, she would sweep every award show.
The shower scene alone would clinch it.
[quote]You heard it here first.
I heard it at Cannes.
Glad it got to you ten months later.
Lynn, your predictions are so far off they're laughable. Isn't Les Miz going to win BP?
Cannes doesn't determine anything as far as Oscars go.
OP is very annoying, and I don't believe for a minute that he's an Academy voter, but I do agree that Riva is going to win. The BAFTA was an indication.
I just hope she shows up for Oscar - she skipped the BAFTAS, and that would have been an easy one from France.
The insiders they polled in EW are mostly voting for Naomi Watts. Crazy!
Watts was brilliant in The Impossible. That would be a nice surprise if she won - a REAL surprise. But everyone's aware that this is Riva's likely last chance at an Oscar, whereas Watts (and Lawrence and Chastain) will have many more go-rounds.
Being old isn't always enough to get one.
The "coronation" of Jennifer Lawrence will most likely happen.
I like her but don't like the personality award. She is a unique and a "new" screen personality and a good actress.
Debra Winger should have won an Oscar for the same reasons, and may have been the better actor than Lawrence. There is no new nothing, just short attention.
Chastain they are playing the Julianne Moore, Annette Benning game with, as in assuming she will be nominated many more times and will win it eventually. Has not worked out well for Julianne or Annette. (or Amy Adams)
The award should go to Riva or Watts. Watts hasn't newcomer status or any veteran sentiment. She is far too unassuming a presence to win. Her performance is astounding.
I hope Riva pulls off the upset over Lawrence.
P.S. Helen Hunt is the Watts of the best supporting actress category. Hunt gives a fucking brave, honest and internal performance while naked, but she has no traction or it seems attraction for the voters.
Anne Hathaway deserves her inevitable win, in tie with Hunt. She is heartbreaking and the only performer in Les Miserables who embodies a real character of the novel, translates the musical requirements of the score to film and brings something more to her performance than the stage musical does. This is what was hoped for in filming it, but the rest of movie fails to deliver this. Anne has a showy part and she nails it.
I am still hoping for Riva to shock the room with her win and french kiss Denzel.
r36 is a very smart person.
The voting set-up for the BAFTAs is entirely different from the Oscars. And the voters for the BAFTAs are far more likely to vote for a European contender than Academy members.
Riva will not win. Period.
[quote] The voting set-up for the BAFTAs is entirely different from the Oscars. And the voters for the BAFTAs are far more likely to vote for a European contender than Academy members.
[quote] Riva will not win. Period.
The Dick Morris of Academy Awards has spoken. Amen.
One Oscar voter gives his "brutally honest" opinion about how he voted:
Ain't gonna happen. Nobody knows her, and the French don't like Americans.
Maybe people will write my name in for my lead work as Catwoman.
[quote]The voting set-up for the BAFTAs is entirely different from the Oscars. And the voters for the BAFTAs are far more likely to vote for a European contender than Academy members.
Lynn Stairmaster is right just look at all the European winners that won along with Riva at this year's Baftas - Ben Affleck, Clooney, AnnE, Tarantino, David O Russel...wait what?
Also of note, the other non Americans who won top categories at BAFTAs- DDL, and Christoph Waltz- won for American movies.
Shower scene, R28?!!?? Really?? I don't recall seeing French Fry Emmanuelle screaming, bleeding and futilely fighting off a knife-wielding transvestite momna's boy, thereafter changing the language of cinema forevermore. THAT was a shower scene.
Oscar Bridesmaid Janet Leigh
With the exception of Streep & Mirren, since '97, the young pretty ones have won. Said to be the old male members votes.
Helen Hunt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Hilary Swank, Julia Roberts, Halle Berry, Charlize Theron, Hilary Swank, Reese Witherspoon, Helen Mirren, Marion Cotillard, Kate Winslet, Sandra Bullock, Natalie Portman, Meryl Streep, and the Oscar goes to.....
Really, Janet? Really? You trying being naked in the shower. At my age.
I'd say "at our age," given that we were both born in 1927.
But I won't.
Because you're dead.
- Emmanuelle Riva's opening monologue on SNL
Sandra Bullock was 45 when she won her oscar. Hardly "young"
How is Helen Hunt pretty, R47?
This is the last time I'm writing this-Emmanuelle fucking Riva will NOT win the Oscar tomorrow night.
It would be so cool if Naomi Watts pulled an upset...that movie was riveting.
Is she going to be there? was she at the French Oscars?
She is coming to the Oscars.
Julia and Helen weren't exactly young either r47.
Hilary Swank...pretty? no. just no
It's no surprise Lynn is being a cunt considering her desperate prognostications have been embarrassingly wrong.
As usual, she'll be wrong here too.
A win by any of the five nominees would be an ok thing as all of them were good. I would have been very happy had Lawrence won for Winter's Bone. And I liked her very much in SLP, though I believe it is far from her best work, and I expect she'll do great work again.
But there is no getting over the fact that Riva - and Trintigant, alas, not nominated - gave extraordinary and unforgettable performances. If Riva wins, it will be the highlight of the night.
Riva's the only potential winner whom I feel genuinely excited about.
I'm glad to see that so many others feel the same.
Richard Roeper was on Leno and he said the race was between Lawerence and Chastain (who he thought was better). Fool...
I don't think Amour will play my area,the closet is 3 hours away. Maybe I'll make the trip next weekend....
I haven't seen Amour. But is Riva really that good? I've seen Hiroshima Mon Amour and wasn't exactly blown away, if memory serves. She's had a long career and never been even nominated for a Cesar before this year.
My suspicion is that people are responding to the role and the things she had to go through rather than the actual performance itself.
R54, Just Jared had pixs of Riva arriving at LAX. She came straight from the Cesar awards. She looked great at the Cesar's. Btw today is her birthday. Can you imagine winning an Oscar on your birthday? I hope it happens for her...
You people. Are you truly under the impression that the Oscars are anything other than a measure of commercial success? No one saw Amour. It's winning nothing.
Just because you're old doesn't mean you can win your first Oscar.
I can assure you, and quote confidentially that Riva will not won. No American is voting for the French except the gays.
R62, as you remember the thousands of people watching "Crash" with you, it must be wonderful to be so smug about..... nothing valid.
To R62., I have posted this before. I, like every other voting member of the AMPAS received a screener of Amour. I promise you many of them watched it and many of them voted for Riva, just as many voted for Marion Cottilard. I know it is difficult for the flyover brai nto imagine a foreign actress wining but it happens. Just ask Simone, Sophia, Anna, Marion and Penelope.
Only pretentious gays liked "Amour".
r47 is right that the trend is to award younger actresses. On average the Best Actress winner is at least 10 years younger than the Best Actor winner. Best Actress winners are routinely in their 20s, and until Adrien Brody's win in 2003, no man in his 20s had ever won (he was 29).
Giving it to Julia Roberts was SO MUCH better!
Amen to that!
Jennifer Jones won her Oscar the night of her 25th birthday,r61
Riva was NEVER going to win this. It was sweet of some of you to want her to win but delusional, nonethless.
There was no way the Academy was letting a lead acting Oscar go to a foreign-language actor 2 years in a row, especially since Cotillard wasn't that long ago.
Pity - Riva was certainly the most deserving of that bunch, but "deserving" doesn't necessaraily mean anything.
Told ya so.
Told ya so?
One never knows.
Lawrence was fine and I have no problem with her getting the oscar. But to be so convinced the oscars wouldn't have made an even better choice with Riva because of this or that is just hindsight being 20/20.
And anything can happen. Who would have ever thought the oscars would not have even nominated Bigelow, Tarantino or Affleck this year?
Uhh, a lot of people expected these directors and/or their movies to be included in the Oscar race.
Sorry, R77, you seem nice but your argument completely collapsed in an exhausted heap on the floor.