I have a clear idea who I'm voting for (as do most voters I've talked to), but I'd like to hear what you think.
Based on the conversations I've had and the very informal polling I've done so far, it's not going to be who you think it will be, so let's see what happens here.
Emanuelle Riva. Just a stunning performance. The Academy will have buyers' regret (see: Gwyneth Paltrow) if they go with any of the other nominees.
Ehhh I don't really think Lawrence should win. Her level of talent comes nowhere near her hype. She's 21 and hasn't paid her dues. She has plenty of time to win one, plus it would really piss off the fan girls. Give it to Riva or Watts.
Also, PLEASE give supporting to Sally because nobody wants Hathaway to win but Hathaway and FUCK HER and her shameless campaigning and insufferable personality.
Naomi Watts because she is a past nominee
Riva or Watts. Actually anyone but Jessica Chastain.
I posted this in another thread but seems more appropriate here.
OSCAR PREDICTIONS - STATE OF THE RACE AND PEAKING AT THE OSCAR BALLOTS: By looking at six ballots - Silver Linings Playbook and Jacki Weaver seem to be in heavy conversation...
Riva. Great performance in a movie that is destined to become a classic of serious cinema. It is also her last chance, most likely.
Lawrence and Wallis are way too young, Chastain and Watts will have another shot.
I just hope anything other than Argo wins Best Picture.
Awards are predetermined.
Director: Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables"
[italic]Shocked reactions?[/italic] Some.
Count me in the anyone but Chastain camp. And I say that as a big fan of hers. She should have won Supporting Actress last year (albeit for Take Shelter, not The Help). But no way no how for ZDT.
I see the arguments to be made for all the other nominees.
I'd love to see Naomi Watts win, just because I like her.
Emmanuelle Riva. A truly staggering, unforgettable performance that is leagues beyond the other four nominees. (Chastain and Wallis shouldn't even be on the list.)
[quote]Lawrence and Wallis are way too young
I hate how people dismiss Lawrence and Chastain as "too young." The Oscar isn't for seasoned actors only; it's about the best performance of the year. I know that's not often the case, but to say someone deserves it because they're knocking on death's door and may not get another chance is as insulting. Don't like Lawrence or Wallis' performances and say that Riva was better in your opinion, but don't factor in age as the reason why they should win.
Lawrence; she has momentum. I just feel it. Mind you, I would be happy if ANYONE in this category - except the child - won.
[quote]The Oscar isn't for seasoned actors only; it's about the best performance of the year.
It is and it isn't. For instance, by my count going by the best performance Meryl Streep would have about 6 Oscars (Sophie, A Cry in the Dark, Adaptation, Prada, Silkwood) and Peter O'Toole wouldn't have had lost 8 times. Its about more than just performance, though. Lawrence is going to have SO MANY more chances to win and she hasn't won many critics awards, so if she wins it will be because she's the young hot thing right now, like when GOOP won.
I don't get the Chastain hate. I thought she was great in ZDT, I totally believed her as a CIA agent. Maybe it just wasn't flashy enough or didn't have a big speech scene.
Lawrence is not way too young, but Wallis is. Children that young don't "act" in the way adults do; for them, they're just being themselves onstage. Anna Paquin was too young to win back in 1992 and Tatum O'Neal was too young to win in the early 70s.
Exactly r16. And the fact that the director re-wrote his script to fit Wallis' personality means she wasn't acting at all, just playing in front of a camera. It's the silliest nomination in the history of the Academy -- they should be embarrassed and ashamed.
Emmanuelle Riva, because she gave the strongest performance of the five nominees. By far.
The Oscars need to restore their prestige after years of Bullock/Portman/Berry schlock.
Think of the 1970s, when great actress after great acress won. Why can't it be like that again?
Without that prestige, the Oscars will continue on their downward spiral, lost in the shuffle of lightweight award ceremonies, with fewer viewers to match.
The Academy is underestimating public demand - and respect - for quality work. People appreciate it when truly good work gets recognized, even - and especially - if it is for 'serious' cinema.
They also want to see a 86 yo awarded - on her birthday, no less! Think of that novelty factor alone.
Dare to be different! Vote for Emmanuelle Riva, who gave the performance of a lifetime, in a film that will be remembered for years to come.
[quote]They also want to see a 86 yo awarded - on her birthday, no less! Think of that novelty factor alone.
Also, her own countryman would be awarding her the prize.
Note I have not seen all the nominated films.
But Riva is the only one that people absolutely rave about, when describing her performance. All the others get enthusiasm, but Riva seems to have hit people where they live.
I'd say Naomi Watts, because she does not play a formulaic character (hot chick who makes guy go through hell to get laid), and for all the political reasons.
If history is any indicator, Lawrence will win, as this will add to her future box office. Hollywood likes to build its brands young.
[quote]The Academy is underestimating public demand - and respect - for quality work.
Right, Streep Loon. That's why Identity Theft pulled in nearly 40 mil last weekend.
I never said people don't watch shit movies at the theatre, r22.
I said the general public can distinguish between shit and quality (even if they don't consume quality product themselves), and respects quality product being honored.
There's a difference between those two statements.
No, the general public can't, Streep Loon. The general public taken as a whole is a disaster area.
No, r8, it's not.
Jennifer also supports her gays, that's why she gets my vote.
R6, it is interesting that the guy who writes for that site liked "Bobby" as much as I did. I think we're the only two.
I haven't seen any of the performances but it's telling that Riva is the only one for whom people are actually making a case.
Rachel Weisz for "The Deep Blue Sea".
Well, you asked and I answered.
I think its one of those years where not quite enough members of the Academy saw "Amour" and Jennifer Lawrence will win. Then in a few years it will be one of those cases where everyone wonders why Riva didn't win.
Academy Member here (costume branch). Voted for Amour,Day Lewis, Riva (who I believe will win), Field, Tommy Lee.
Well then I love you R31!
R17- re: playing in front of the camera
That is all that acting is. And like the camera isn't there.
R30, Can you really say not enough people saw amour considering it was nominated for best picture last month?!
That hasn't happened in almost 20 years.
R31, out of curiosity, what were your 2nd and 3rd choices for picture?
I've been a hot mess all day thinking about all the yummy things I could make form the bowel movements that Meryl shat out when she had the flu!
The Streep troll (tm), needed more than ever.
Academy members don't watch all the movies, R34. They might have nominated Amour because it was on a lot of top 10 lists and the vibe was that it should be nominated. Know what I mean? That's why a lot of these critics groups and non-Oscar awards can make a difference. Its a difficult foreign film so I'm saying a lot of members might have the intention to see it, but turn on a Housewives show instead. They might still vote for Riva, though, based on word of mouth or dislike of the other nominees. If there is an upset it will probably be her, the rest seem like locks or Supporting Actor which seems wide open.
Emanuelle Riva, no competition. She anchors what is arguably the best movie of the last year and the only one that actually made any emotional or intellectual impact on me well after having seen it.
I never even saw Amour but I would love to eat Riva's shit.
R 31 here. I assume every academy member received a screener of Amour as I did so I think most will have seen it by the time they vote.
My second choice was Lincoln which I think will win. My second choice for actress was Watts. I don't think Lawrence is going to win as I do t know anyone who has voted for her. Day Lewis s an absolute lock. Supporti g actor could be diniro or waitz. Supporting actress could be Sally , Anne or weaver.
I just hope Argo doesn't win Best Picture. Maybe Ben Afleck will kill himself.
I'd have more faith in your prognosis if you could type properly, R41.
OK, OP I will give you my very true honest opinions.
I don't think the performance Jennifer Lawrence gave was good enough for her to win a Best Actress Oscar. I'm sure she did a good job, just not "Best Actress" good.
I have to say my top favorite is Jessica Chastain. I thought she was compelling as hell in ZD30. Riveting. I'd like to see her win acknowledgement. In general, she & NAomi Watts demonstrate a range with their various performances that makes them among the most interesting actors and accomplished artists working today.
I will not be sorry or angry if Naomi Watts gets an Oscar. I think she is probably one of the finest actors of her generation. I love to watch her whether it's the kind of humanity she brings to a silly disposable character like King Kong or the nuanced performance in The Painted Veil. She's brilliant.
Emmanuelle Riva and Jean Louis Trantignant were brilliant and Amour is moving and beautiful. I hope it wins best foreign film. It deserves acknoledgdment. I have to wonder how much of a stretch these characters were for them, in all honestly.
I thought the little Wallis girl was delightful and beautiful to watch, but no. Not Best actress material. Not yet.
For what it worth, I hope Robert De Niro gets a supporting Oscar for Silver Linings. I hope Daniel Day Lewis gets best actor, and Sally Fields gets Best supporting Actresss. Steven Spielberg should get an Oscar for Best director and Lincoln should win Best picture.
I like Tommy Lee Jones a lot. But he was playing another version of Tommy Lee Jones. I was deeply disappointed that David Strathairn and James Spader were overlooked. They should've been nominated.
Hopefully Tony Kushner will get an award for best adapted screenplay. I hope David O Russell gets an Oscar for writing an original Screenplay.
Lincoln should win Best picture. I have a feeling Life of Pi may sneak in there. I really have no interest in seeing Argo get any more recognition.
But I bet it will, because really I see the contest as a blood sport pitting Clooney against Harvey Weinstein. I think Clooney & AFfleck are nailing down all the other awards to make Harvey look stupid when or if he wins anything for SLP.
Thanks for sharing R41.
I'm guessing Melissa Leo picked SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK down the sline, since David O. Russell cast her in his movie that won her the Oscar. She probably feels loyal and indebted to him.
I don't understand why anyone would vote out of any other reason than who they think should win. For instance, who cares what Harvey Weinstein does - ballots are anonymous so how would he know who voted for his favorites? I think people overthink how voters come to their choices.
Riva and Trintignant, her co-star, should both win. (He's obviously not nominated natch.) That said, her performance is brilliant and she is still a beautiful woman in her mid-80s (when she is not dying in the movie natch). She has become a poet in recent years. Amour was the best movie of the year IMO. Jennifer Lawrence should really have been nominated for best supporting actress. It's not really even a leading role. She is a good actress esp compared to her age peers. I think she will win because of the Harvey Weinstein PR machine and because people may not have seen Amour. Hope I'm wrong.
The little girl's performance was not that great. She was adorable, but that's about it. The kid in Hugo did far far better acting and he wasn't nominated last year.
Me, of course.
Damn, there is a lot of SLP on the ballots in R6's link. Of course six is a very small sample size, but it could be interesting on Oscar night.
Wow, the voters in R6's link except for the guy that voted for Riva sound like absolute idiots, especially that woman. What a stupid bitch. No wonder the Oscars suck.
Riva - The only female performance of the year that will stand the test of the time, for the ages. Thank god she was nominated as I thought that might not happen. The best and most harrowing depiction of dementia on screen ever and her onscreen partner with the unsung role also great. I don't think she'll win sadly which is a tragedy considering the mediocrity that is favourite.
Watts - This was the only other one that really did anything for me. Film is cheesy and in questionable taste of course, but Naomi really delivered here and was heartbreaking and soulful at times as a loving mother. Like Awards Circuit said, it's impossible to imagine people not voting for her after watching it.
Also the only time I've thought old wooden chops Ewan McGregor was any good, he also should have been nominated in that dreary supporting category.
Chastain - I liked ZDT a lot, similar to and just about under Hurt Locker. So considering the role was the best on paper and her great breakout performances this was a major disappointment. She was good but didn't get much to do or maybe underplayed.
Jennifer Ehle was good yes, the first time I haven't been distracted by her being a Streep doppelganger which is all I could think of in that mess Contagion.
JLaw - Like Chastain I just don't see this as an Oscar winning performance, like wtf, shows how weak and wide open it is. And she's not really lead, it's all about BCoop. She was fierce at times but not enough to justify the raves. She was a bit better than Chastain though who I expected to be the best.
I thought she was far better in Winter Bone where she was unrecognizable, this is a variation on her real life sexy talk show interview persona.
Wallis - Should not be there, but I don't care now, such slim pickings.
Jean Dujardin wants to give it to Riva. The interview is in French, but he pretty much says, "It would be nice to say 'Emmanuelle Fucking Riva!'"
[quote]Jennifer Ehle was good yes, the first time I haven't been distracted by her being a Streep doppelganger which is all I could think of in that mess Contagion.
When I went to go see Contagion, I knew Mamie Gummer existed but I didn't know what she looked like, so I assumed Ehle was Mamie because she looked/sounded so much like Meryl.
R8, where is your list from - a Vegas over/under web page? Just wondering.
It really is sort of dull when I'm not in contention...isn't it?
I agree M-cubed, the Best Actress race was more exciting last year.
The academy can vote for whatever they want, but since quite a number of years they completely lost credibility. It's nothing but nepotism and asskissing.
Nominations and winners are often beyond ridiculous Natalie Portman, The Help, Brad Pitt, George Clooney, The Artist. If AnnE wins over Amy Adams this will add to being another laughable joke Oscar night.
Watched an interview with some journo recently who said that the last time someone won an Oscar without campaigning was 35 years ago.
Actually Monique refused to campaign I think.
Yeah, Mo'Nique was taken to task by pundits for not "playing the game" and even skipping the Oscar luncheon to do her new BET talk show. Some felt that it would cost her the win. But when she won, she made a point of addressing the issue in her Oscar speech, thanking the Academy for judging the performance and not who had the best campaign, which prompted Samuel L. Jackson to raise his eyebrow like "No she di'in't just tell off the Academy." haha
I don't understand why ARGO is considered the Best Film, but they are really kissing up to Ben Afflecks for not getting the Best Direction. Isn't that a signal from the Academy that Ben's direction and film wasn't that great?
And, Mo'Nique refused to shave her legs...nasty!
[quote]Nominations and winners are often beyond ridiculous Natalie Portman, The Help, Brad Pitt, George Clooney, The Artist. If AnnE wins over Amy Adams this will add to being another laughable joke Oscar night.
Get off you're high horse, in three years NO ONE will remember Amy Adams in "The Master". Clooney most certainly deserved his win and nominations and was robbed for directing and producing "Good Night, and Good Luck".
r59, yep, this year's Best Actress race is dull because they nominated the wrong people.
Keep Riva (who should win) and Watts, but throw out Chastain, Lawrence and Wallis and replace them with Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) and Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz) and then we would've had one of the all-time great Best Actress races.
How laughable, r66. Nobody remembers Clooney's performance in Syria these days. Girl, please!
He's a tv actor who was allowed into movies solely because of his looks. George Clooney is a very pedestrian 'actor', vain, self-aware, full of ticks; his Oscar win is deeply embarrassing.
I totally agree with r61 except for 'The Artist', which I felt was an original idea, well acted and executed, and totally deserving of BP.
In any case, Amy Adams is miles better than Ann, who must.not.win.
r59 and r60: you are both so right!
Thankfully, Meryl will be back very soon, with 'August: Osage County'. Needless to say, she is going to be the frontrunner for the next awards cycle.
Oscar # 4 is beckoning !!
For what its worth, since my opinion is soooo important.
Do you guys REALLY THINK the best performance always wins these? Give me a break....some of the best performances weren't even nominated (I.E. Cotillard) - However, this race of all the categories this year, is particularly weak.
That being said, I love Naomi Watts, but her performance was a POS. Just a bunch of tears with no feeling behind them really - I didn't feel anything for her character when she was crying up a storm.
I think Riva should win - but I have a feeling it will be Lawrence or Chastain. This is Hollywood - and while I like both actresses a lot, those were NOT Best Actress winning performances (but neither was The Blind Side)
OP, first of all, why do you need to ask us? See all the performances and vote for the work you found most impressive.
I have seen four of the five performances (haven't seen Watts) and, of the four I've seen, there is no question that Riva is the standout.
Because it's a challenging role in which she hits every note from quiet reflection to unbearable pain perfectly. It is a performance that is exceptionally moving while (perhaps because) avoiding all sentimentality. She and Trintigant's teamwork is exquisite. Rarely have I been so moved at the movies than by their performances.
(The fact that Trintignant should have also been nominated (I'm not sure I would vote for him instead of Day-Lewis, whose performance I also loved), in no way detracts from the power of Riva's performance or her oscar candidacy)
I would vote for her even if she were not the sentimental favorite or a consummate artist with a lifetime of superb work.
Having said that, I adore her, cherish the work she gave as a young, beautiful star of the New Wave. It may well be that she is one of the few actors of our time who has never given a performance that wasn't extraordinary.
But all that is background. The fact is that should she win the oscar it will be an honor for her work in Amour. That work stands by itself as a major achievement.
I almost agree with r1 that not honoring Riva will produce "buyer's regret" akin to not honoring Blanchett for Elizabeth.
The fact is her competition are a damn side more impressive than Paltrow's performance in Shakespeare.
That doesn't change the fact that Riva's performance in Amour is the kind of performance you see and say "yes, that deserves an oscar."
[quote]I totally agree with [R61] except for 'The Artist', which I felt was an original idea, well acted and executed, and totally deserving of BP.
There was nothing original about THE ARTIST. It was just a rehash of A STAR IS BORN and SINGIN' I THE RAIN, and if it hadn't been for the silent movie/black-and-white gimmick, it would've been totally forgettable.
Lawrence and Chastain are both major talents. Lawrence's performance in Winter's Bone is especially great.
And while I admire the work they are nominated for this year, it doesn't hold a candle to Riva's performance. No slight to them, but Riva truly deserves it.
Of course, r70, the most deserving work doesn't always win. Sometimes it does, often it doesn't.
But that's beside the point.
Hopefully, this thread is a reflection of the Academy and Riva will win in a landslide.
Yes, r73, but it DID have the black-and-white silent movie gimmick, which DID make it an original film.
I don't think Singing in the Rain was a silent movie, was it?
I hope so too, R75. I have seen all of the best actress nominees' performances, and while all good Riva's was superb.
Having cared for my mother over the course of a long deterioration (due to the neurological disease progressive supranuclear palsy) where she went from smart, independent woman to bedridden diapered invalid, I appreciated the reality, unsentimentality, and lack of vanity in Riva's performance.
[quote]Having cared for my mother over the course of a long deterioration (due to the neurological disease progressive supranuclear palsy) where she went from smart, independent woman to bedridden diapered invalid, I appreciated the reality, unsentimentality, and lack of vanity in Riva's performance.
But, see, Riva's performance would've been more effective if we had seen the smart, independent side of her. As it is, she quickly succumbs to her illness and is an invalid for the rest of the film. There is no loss to sympathize with 'cause the audience mostly gets to see her in her invalid state.
I see your point, R78, but I think there was enough information relayed at the very beginning of the film (when they attend a concert) that showed that both Anne and Georges were both active, vibrant people who lived independently and comfortably (I coveted their apartment!)
Riva. The Oscar will honor her outstanding performance as well as pay tribute to the greatness of Amour.
As it gets closer to the actual Oscar presentation it would appear that she has momentum based on talent, sentiment and being in a noteworthy film.
r78 must have seen a different version of 'Amour' then.
In the one I've seen, the entire first half of the movie you get to see Riva in a non-vegetative state, radiant, full of life, even when her ailments are setting in.
The conversation with her former piano student, for example. Her reading the horoscope to her husband. Etc. etc.
[quote]Keep Riva (who should win) and Watts, but throw out Chastain, Lawrence and Wallis and replace them with Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) and Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz) and then we would've had one of the all-time great Best Actress races.
How pretentious can you get? You have horrible taste.
R80, Amour has the Foreign Language Oscar locked up, so it's not like Amour will be ignored if Riva doesn't win. And Lawrence is also talented and in a noteworthy film. I'm not saying that Lawrence is better than Riva, but I don't think your reasoning, other than that she was outstanding, makes much sense.
No, R58, it isn't. It's not an Oscar friendly film at all, I'm so glad they went for it and Haneke. I just can't imagine there being another film like it. One you'll never forget and should be shown to everyone.
Emmanuelle Riva because she's super duper old.
Just wanted to mention one thing. People who think it's Ben Affleck's ass getting kissed for Argo are completely missing the point.
It's not about Affleck. He's a "surrogate", in a way, for Clooney.
Clooney is the producing partner for Argo, and Grant Heslov also wrote the screenplay. Clooney has bad history with David O Russell, and I don't think there's a lot of love lost with Harvey.
For whatever reason, Silver Linings was streamrolling it's way to glory, but at every single opportunity, David O Russell was thwarted. By the Argo gang.
Clooney has a lot of influence with industry voters and he will use it.
The flyovers are going to go nuts when some French actress they have never heard of wins the Oscar. Cue the complaints about the elitist, out of touch Academy.
Especially after a French actor they've never heard of won last year.
"But, see, Riva's performance would've been more effective if we had seen the smart, independent side of her"
I think you are missing the point and wishing the movie were a more conventional portrait of a woman losing her capacity to function. Anne and Georges are an elderly couple who live quietly at the beginning of the movie. They are not two people at the height of their professional lives.
Still, we do see the smart, capable side of Anne, we see how revered she is by her husband, her daughter and her student, and we see how gracefully and intelligently she accepts her situation and makes her needs known.
We also see her at the piano as Georges remembers what it was like to be with her while she was playing. It is a scene of stirring power in this eloquent, honest movie which never resorts to mere sentiment but always insists on genuine feeling, tension and fear.
r89: Beautifully said. Couldn't agree more.
SIlver Linings Playbook was not "steamrolling its way to victory" before the ARGO surge. ZERO DARK THIRTY was the critics' darling during the Critics' awards period in December, and when that became a hot potato, LINCOLN surged to the front, until Argo began to pick up steam with all its awards wins.
none of these performances will be remembered past March.
An Oscar Voter's Brutally Honest Ballot:
One director shares his choices, calling "Argo" a "whole lot of nothing," saying "Django Unchained" is "Tarantino masturbating" and passing on "Amour" because "there's only so much diaper-changing I can tolerate."