PPP: Marco Rubio & Hillary Clinton lead their parties for 2016; Hillary 8 points ahead of Rubio in a matchup
February 07, 2013
[quote]Looking ahead to 2016 nationally and in Iowa
New PPP polls both nationally and in Iowa find Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton leading the way for their party's respective 2016 nominations, with Clinton leading Rubio by 8 points in a hypothetical head to head.
For the third month in a row in our national 2016 GOP tracking Rubio leads the way. He's at 22% to 15% for Paul Ryan, 13% each for Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 10% for Rand Paul, 4% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Rick Perry, and 1% for Susana Martinez. Rubio continues to lead based on his appeal to the furthest right segment of the Republican Party- he's at 28% with 'very conservative' voters to 15% for Huckabee and 14% for Ryan.
Rubio's tied for the lead in Iowa as well. It's a closely contested picture there with he and Huckabee both at 16%, followed by Paul at 15%, Bush at 14%, Christie at 12%, Ryan at 10%, Martinez at 4%, and Jindal and Perry at 3%. Rubio leads with conservatives there as well but polls so far behind Huckabee with moderates that it's just a tie overall. One other interesting finding in Iowa is that Chris Christie has only a 36/33 favorability rating with Republicans in the state, including 36/38 with 'very conservative' ones.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to dominate both nationally and in Iowa. Nationally she's at 58% to 19% for Joe Biden, 8% for Elizabeth Warren, and 3% for Andrew Cuomo. She's even stronger in Iowa at 68% to 21% for Biden with no one else over 2%. Her favorability rating with Democrats there is 90/5.
If Clinton doesn't run Democrats are pretty open to a Biden candidacy. Nationally he gets 57% to 13% for Warren and 5% for Cuomo, and in Iowa he gets 58% to 13% for Cuomo and 7% for Warren. If neither Clinton nor Biden ran a plurality of Democrats- 36% nationally and 37% in Iowa- would be undecided.
Clinton leads in head to head match ups nationally with all of the leading Republicans. She's up 8 on Rubio 49/41, 6 on Bush and Ryan at 49/43 and 50/44 respectively, and 46/42 on Christie. Biden does an average of 3 points worse than Clinton against the Republicans- he's up 48/43 on Rubio, 49/45 on Ryan, 48/45 on Bush, and ties Christie at 44.
Obviously it's very early but we'll be doing this national 2016 polling on a monthly basis so that we have a good measure of how preferences shift over time.
Rubio is such a blowhard. Who wouldn't want someone who has basically held every single office in the United States? Hillary is the most qualified living person for the Presidency.
Only 8 points? Wow.
Can we take a fucking breather please? We just had an election and the next one is four years away. I'm so sick of hearing about the next Presidential election when the last one has just ended. Enough for Christ's sake.
Poll Troll was already warned. If this continues, it needs to be banned until 2016.
Rubio is a pandering, phony piece of shit.
Damn, I can't believe Hillary isn't much further ahead of this lying asshole..."my parents were exiles from Cuba" (even though they left Cuba three years before Castro came to power).
Shut up r4. Leave Poll Troll alone.
Rubio will be destroyed easily, just like Romney was once all his bullshit was revealed.
I love the Poll Troll!
Hillary's numbers will go up once she gets out of Washington and the Benghazi situation continues to fade.
Christie is not going to get the nomination, which is good since he polls the best against Democrats.
An 8-point lead is huge. It would translate into an electoral landslide.
They have no one. Rubio is a joke. Hillary or no, 2016 is in the bag for the Dems.
R3 is right. This is all about full employment for political reporters, consultants and pollsters.
I would like to know the real reason Scott Brown decided not to run, though.
[quote]Damn, I can't believe Hillary isn't much further ahead of this lying asshole..."my parents were exiles from Cuba" (even though they left Cuba three years before Castro came to power).
If Hillary were to choose one of the Castro brothers as her VP, Rubio would be obliterated. Give Latinos the choice between an awesome Dem Mexican-American and the loser Cuban, and it's no contest.
PollTroll I think you were very helpful during the run-up to the election, but I think you should give it a rest for 2016 polls. 2016 polls are not indicative or predictive of anything. At this point, it is useless and not productive.
Rubio is simply not ready for prime time. He's a dull speaker and lacks the "politicraft" to really function on any national level. I see him as an eager, teachable rookie, but I don't think he has the chess moves to mount and operate any sort of national message.
I appreciate the poll troll. Those that don't - does seeing new poll posts stress you out?
I love how the GOP and its base thinks it can dish out some far-right candidate like Rubio is just because he is of Hispanic descent and think they'll win.
This has been discussed ad nauseum but Rubio is of Cuban descent, which isn't exactly going to go over well with Mexican and Puerto Rican Americans, who make up a massive chunk of the Hispanic population. Mexicans and Puerto Ricans aren't big fans of the Cubans.
Not only that, but Maddow discussed this on her show a week or so ago -- Hispanics are really liberal. Really liberal. More liberal than Cubans, who vote Republican most of the time anyway, and more liberal than the general population.
Just because they put out some Cuban who has a somewhat moderate position on immigration it doesn't mean Hispanics are going to flock to the GOP.
2016 will have an Electoral College winner who will not receive the most votes nationally. Big states like CA and NY will have super high percentage for Clinton, which will give her the most votes.
Hillary's only ahead by 8??? She should be ahead by at least 20! I'm very concerned.
Who is this douchebag Rubio? His faux-humble "what me? run for president?" is really grating. The only thing he has going for him is his ambition. It will also be the end of him.
HRC is the most vetted politician in US History and few outside of Florida know anything about Rubio. His numbers will go straight to shit once people learn that he is, in fact, stupid.
Always love you Poll Troll, but r14 is right. Too soon.
[quote] I appreciate the poll troll. Those that don't - does seeing new poll posts stress you out?
EXACTLY. The same give-it-a-rest-ers were screaming for the Poll Troll to stop posting about Nate Silver throughout the last year too.
If you don't wanna talk politics (or, more likely, you don't want to see proof of the likely demise of the Republican party), then don't open the friggin' thread.
Great numbers, Poll Troll, and thanks for posting them. I was a fan of yours in 2008 too and you kept me sane 4 years later. :)
Some of you are living a fantasy!
This country will never elect Hillary Clinton as POTUS!
Why do you think we're stuck with Obama, who has operated more like a Republican just like Bill Clinton?
The Democratic Party's powers-that-be secretly & extensively "polled" for the 2008 race across all demographics and party lines and shockingly learned that the USA would never elect a woman for POTUS. Hillary Clinton was singled out as a big no! That's how we ended up with unqualified Obama.
If the Democrats nominate Clinton or Biden in 2016, they are sunk regardless who is the Republican nominee. I don't see a viable Democratic candidate for POTUS in 2016, so suck it up now.
All of you would do better to realize that the Democratic Party long ago abandoned its platform as "Party of the People" and start fighting back, hard.
The candidates we're being offered are jokes more concerned about getting elected and then re-elected than being committed to public service.
Do any of you realize that a great Democratic POTUS hasn't been elected since 1960?
No one dare mention Bill Clinton. He was one of the best presidents the GOP ever had.
Just ask all the unemployed who lost their jobs to Mexico after Slick Willie gladly signed NAFTA. It was the final stake in the heart of the manufacturing base in the USA.
How Rubio can be heralded and considered as a candidate for POTUS are abominations because he is an unqualified boob and a fraud. His parents are not Cuban exiles as claimed. I suspect that the Bush dynasty is backing & bankrolling him.
Like it or not, the majority of registered voters in the USA is Republican. The GOP engineered a coup in appealing to racists, rednecks, the uneducated, and other groups who will never benefit from its policies.
Hate, intolerance, and ignorance that help fuel the GOP also often appear in this forum...just look around.