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Hillary Clinton in 2016: Be Afraid, Republicans
Hillary Clinton’s polling ahead of GOP challengers in Texas and Kentucky. And then there’s the youth vote, minorities, women, and the white working class. She’s the one to beat in 2016, writes Lloyd Green, former opposition research counsel to the George H.W. Bush campaign.
Feb 3, 2013
Message to the Republican Party: Be afraid, be very afraid.
Hillary Clinton stands atop of the Democratic 2016 scrum, set to resume where Bill left off. A second Clinton candidacy would likely put the white vote in play and jeopardize the GOP’s dominance in the Old Confederacy. Recent polls put Hillary ahead of possible Republican challengers in vote-rich Texas and in Kentucky, home of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul.
Unlike her husband, Hillary is personally disciplined. Unlike Barack Obama, she has demonstrated an ability to connect with beer-track voters across the country.
To understand why Hillary is particularly dangerous to the Republican Party, recall where the Democratic Party stood on the eve of Bill’s 1992 run for the White House, poised for what would have been their sixth loss in seven presidential elections.
The 1960s marked the exodus of blue-collar ethnics and Southerners from the Democratic Party. What was once the base of the FDR’s New Deal coalition headed for the exits in the aftermath of inner-city rioting, violent protests and rancorous demonstrations. White flight marked Richard Nixon’s 1972 landslide victory over George McGovern. Nixon won 61 percent of the popular vote and two-thirds of ballots casts by white voters. Not even Ronald Reagan equaled that margin. And in the South, the Democratic vote crumbled, as McGovern gleaned less than three in 10 voters there.
Roe v. Wade came next. The Supreme Court’s 1973 decision recognized abortion as a constitutionally protected right and was a milestone for the Women’s movement. But in politics as in physics, actions generate reactions, and it also helped to forge an alliance between devout Catholics and evangelical Protestants. By the end of 1988, white Catholics had voted Republican in three consecutive presidential elections. The Democratic Party was no longer their natural home. For its part, the GOP was no longer the exclusive enclave of Thurston Howell III, the descendants of Union soldiers or northern rural Protestants. Instead, the Republican Party had morphed into a winning, albeit monochromatic, coalition.
Enter Bill Clinton. His candidacy and presidency reversed the Democrats’ fortunes by playing to voters who had become dissatisfied with the Republican’s Party’s overt piety and Southern-fried politics, but who were wary of the Democrats’ sympathy for identity and grievance politics, foreign policy by McGovern-Carter and disdain for market-based economics. Both Ice Storm suburbanites and Reagan Democrats were receptive to Bill’s message.
Bill’s attack on Sister Souljah and embrace of free trade signaled that he was breaking from Democratic orthodoxies. The numbers told the story.
In 1992, Bill Clinton came within one point of winning a plurality of white voters. He came within three points in 1996. No Democratic candidate has since come that close. Indeed, Barack Obama garnered less than two in five white votes against a hapless Mitt Romney. To top it off, Clinton also tied the Republicans in the South in 1996. There was stirring in Dixie.
At the electoral high-end, the Ivy Leaguers of the 1960s had grown up and traded their beards, tattered jeans, and placards for Wall Street, Ralph Lauren suits, business cards, and a home in Larchmont. And so, Clinton won an outright majority of voters with graduate degrees and kept the GOP to less than 60 percent among affluent voters. In fact, since 1992 grad degree voters have gone Democratic in each subsequent presidential election.
Bill’s successes served as the electoral predicate for Obama’s victories, and position Hillary to pick up where Obama ultimately leaves off. Obama won reelection by forging a New Deal 2.0 coalition in the industrial Midwest, while cementing a high-end low-end coalition in the South of college-educated whites and minorities.
Although Obama lost among non-college graduate whites by 19 points nationwide, his deficit among that same demographic in the Great Lakes was only in the single digits. Significantly, Ohio and Pennsylvania held for Obama in 2012, two of the states which Obama lost to Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries.
- I hope her health and stamina hold out, and I hope she DOES run, and I hope she wins in a landslide that shames Republicans for decades, and that her coat-tails are long and she brings with her super-majorities in the House and Senate.
Wouldn't THAT be a kick in the pants?
Then I would hope that, unlike her husband, she could run an Administration as scandal-free as Obama's has been so far, and get shit done.
- Obama only won because of racist blacks.
If you take the normal 10% of blacks and assign them back to the Republicans you would see Obama would lose.
Blacks voted for Obama because they THINK he's black, ignoring his white half.
Unless the Dems come up with a light skinned black guy in 2016, they will lose.
- That's some incisive political analysis, R3. Surely, if Romney got 10 percent of the black vote, as opposed to the 7 percent he did get, that would have made a dramatic difference of... .39 percent (3 percent of 13 percent, the black share of the national vote), clearly closing Romney's gap of 4 percent.
- The Democrats have probably already lost the next few elections by dredging up their losing side in the gun control battle. If they don't have sense enough to let it be when they have already lost an issue, then I guess they are going to get what they deserve.
Most of the gun supporters were conservative Republicans before. Obama stands to pick up Republicans who don't like guns. At best a wash.
- Looks like the Republican trolls for 2016 are arriving early.
Are R3 & R5 being serious? This is the propaganda you are putting out?
Obama only won because of racist blacks? Obama won a majority of the women's vote, and a huge majority of the Latino vote. Not to mention a majority of many other demographics. R3, if Hillary runs in 2016 she will do very well, and will pick up a lot of Independent and white-working class support. The Republicans are obviously worried since they are trying to pass immigration reform and trying to restructure the electoral college since they know they are losing on the current map.
And as for you R5, I guess you've forgotten that Bill Clinton was easily re-elected in 1996 after passing the assault weapons ban in 1994.
- R5 seems blissfully unaware that a SUPER-MAJORITY of American Citizens supports Obama's gun safety proposals. He's totally in the mainstream, and this is totally a winning issue for him.
- thank you r8!
- R3's vapid fantasy ignores all the racist whites that voted against the black guy.
- [quote]If you take the normal 10% of blacks and assign them back to the Republicans you would see Obama would lose.
I hate to even bother addressing R3, but in case he didn't know, the black population is a Democratic strong hold. The Republicans lost that population and for the foreseeable future, there's no winning them back. That's why some Republicans are terrified that they may lose Latinos forever as well and are now wanting to tackle immigration issues. What they refuse to accept is that according to polling, Latinos are mainly concerned with the economy. Immigration is important, but they're not going to start voting Republicans just because of that.
- Also Latinos love the Clintons. Hillary won their support overwhelmingly during the primary over Obama.
- She can be our first woman imperialist president!
- R13, why should she be different from those who came before her?
We'll let her know your scorching words, though!
- If 2008 taught us anything it is that Hillary is unelectable. She was beat by a person with little experience, half the intelligence and the world perspective of your average walnut. Don't run Hillary, give your party a chance at winning instead of splitting votes.
- Alas, I think the beer-track voters are lost to the Dems for the forseeable future whomever tops the ticket.
- r15=functionally retarded.
- So she did win the primary? Whew I thought someone less qualified did
- If the economy continues to improve in the next 4 years, and Hillary and Bill stay healthy, then it's demographically impossible for Hillary to lose, should she decide to run. She would expand the electoral map like no candidate has done since Reagan.
- Blah blah blah. She won't be president.
This "get out front" strategy will fail.
- R17 Blissful idiot. People chose Obama because unlike Hilary he doesn't come across as a bullshit artist of the highest order. It was her election to lose and Obama put her to shame. And yes, Obama had very little experience as Hilary did BUT I'd rather have someone as my President who is not just after naked ambition and power like Hilary.Thank God that Obama is our president and not that shrill,deceptive ninny.
R5 People in the red states wouldn't disagree with that. Tell Democrat Party senators who are up for reelection in red states that they have to espouse President Obama's passion for gun control. It's most likely they would like to stay away from such an issue.Like abortion on the right is a losing issue, gun control on the left is a losing issue.
R11 I believe education and the economy are the top two issues to Hispanics.If you look at the US Southwest,the vast majority of Hispanics are Mexican Americans.Dubya The Dope got something like 40 percent to 45 percent of their vote.He felt an ease with Mexican Americans much like Bill Clinton felt with African Americans.If the Republicans get a candidate who is cognizant and aware of issues in the Mexican American community in the Southwest/Border States(where a big Mexican population boom has been going on for a decades) and the Hispanics in the nation in general they have a chance to get at least 40 to 45 percent of their support.
- How long does Hillary get a pass for her opposition to same-sex marriage and her office-imposed silence during the period this ship set sail?
- "Obama only won because of racist blacks.
If you take the normal 10% of blacks and assign them back to the Republicans you would see Obama would lose.
Blacks voted for Obama because they THINK he's black, ignoring his white half.
Unless the Dems come up with a light skinned black guy in 2016, they will lose. "
With that warped logic, consider all the Republican women who will be swayed to Hillary's side when she runs...
- oh, retard r21! I know the ongoing smell of defeat is making you and your brain dead Republican ilk apoplectic with anger. But must it make you so extra *extra* special retarded on top of all of that?
"People chose Obama because unlike Hilary he doesn't come across as a bullshit artist of the highest order. "
According to whom? You and you're mahjong group?
It was a hot contest and Obama won because he was and is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate: shrewd, poised, intelligent, warm and human ... and most of all he was new. Clinton at the time suffered simply from being a known quantity. People wanted change.
And though there are legitimate grounds to criticize her, Clinton's reputation was never as a "bullshit artist" -(well, except with sub-mentals like you and your party).
These past 4-years have burnished her reputation however. She worked beautifully with Obama, restored the country's reputation after the guy you jerk off to - Dubya - destroyed our credibility in the eyes of the rest of the world, and oh - did you see how crazy people went over Bill's speech at the convention? A lot of folks wouldn't mind having him in the white house again.
People want Hillary for a variety of reasons. If she runs, she will win handily. Leaving imbeciles like you to continue to wet yourself in anger because you and your party as it currently stands have absolutely nothing to offer this country besides stale, failed policies.
And yes, you are Republican - all of this "thank god that Obama is our President..." is a lame attempt at hiding that fact.
- The Republican Party is inching closer to extinction.
- That was my point R14.
- r22 -- everything you need to know (but likely won't be able to comprehend) is at this link:
- R21, use the twinkie defense.
- You must be very young, R25. Your post assumes that Dems will be in charge of everything and that there will be smooth sailing forever more. There will be bumps - some severe - and, as the party in control, Dems will be held responsible. I've lived long enough and seen both parties been given their last rites too many times to think the 2-party system is over.
- R24 I'm no Republican. I'm a registered Democrat you fool.I voted for Obama twice! The press savaged Hilary Clinton when she went up against Obama. Do you remember how the press exposed Hilary when she lied being shot at in ex-Yugoslavia. She made up that story because she's a BS artist. The press crucified that woman and for good reason.....she's a liar and power hungry.Obama is far more honest and a better representative for this country. We don't need any more political dynasties in this country too.
I also called Dubya The Dope! He started two illegal wars and put this country back to the stone age,financially,politically and socially.We didn't need someone else from the Bush family in the White House as well.No Republican would savage that yahoo the way I have.
What it boils down to is that I think Hilary is a first class phony. She has too many shades of red to my liking. I could call her the c-word BUT that would be a compliment for someone so odious.
- r30 you sound deranged, to be blunt.
- "Tell Democrat Party senators who are up for reelection in red states that they have to espouse President Obama's passion for gun control."
Yoohoo, imbecile r30? People who are Democrats never refer to it as the "Democrat Party."
- R15 is an example of the backstabbing democrat. Hillary can get around the republicans because of her self-discipline and hard work, but the dems betrayed her with a willing Obama in 2008. Those dems with their own agendas may find a way to do it again.
- The most disappointing thing about gays is they will blindly support any candidate the democrats march out in front of them. Fuck we are supposed to be well educated and smart.
- This thread is full of Freepers and fags with mommy issues.
- R32 You sound witless. Bad form and a terrible retort.
R34 Good point. Hilary was supposed to win the nomination in 08 with no issues ,right?Just like in 08 when Hilary was exposed for being a liar and the much weaker candidate, it will probably happen again. It could be Biden 16 instead......
R35 Fags? With mommy issues? You're the one that sounds like a right wing fundamentalist Freeper!
R32 Yo, it was a mistake! I've been a registered Democrat since 1990 and I'm proud of it.However that doesn't mean that I have to accept Hilary or any quasi-Repub they throw in front of me.
- I don't know about that r35, I've met people in person who are actually as stupid as r34. Their brains are so limited that they can't even follow a rational argument to its end.
- Hillary has no shot because she is a lying Clinton, and we are tired of them. Too icky, too much baggage. When asked if she served on the board of Walmart, she replied that she did not remember!
She has failed with Bengazi, opposes gay marriage, worked/works for Monsanto, wants to put everyone's medical records in a giant government database and insulted homemakers everywhere.
But most importantly, she is a SCORPIO. No thanks!
- R38 I get your points BUT what is wrong with being a Scorpio? I think you're being facetious BUT you don't want to know her life number either...;)
- Wow. A nasty infestation of retarded right wing operatives, being paid by the word no doubt.
How 2012. Yawn.
"You sound witless. Bad form and a terrible retort."
I posted a fact, moron, that tipped your hand. So the terrible retort is your own.
You're a loser republican half-wit using tired, ineffective tactics from the last election cycle. Tactics that didn't do much for your side. At all.
You guys are such geniuses. *snicker*
- R40 You tipped your hand as a fool. I don't have to be a Republican to hate the lying Hilary you flake. She's a quasi-right wing whack job.And in current Democratic circles the biggest BS artist out there!
Your assertion that I'm right wing/Repub is a losing battle. I'm pro gay marriage, pro gay adoption, pro legalization of pot , I support Obama's gun control program,I support the tax raises etc so on.I've scoff at the Log Cabiners on DL as well.However the one thing that irritates you is that I think Hilary Clinton is a lying sack of shit. I was extremely happy that Obama won the nomination because I wanted someone who was upfront and honest as President. That was something that sunk Romney as well. Because like Hilary every other word out of Mittens and Queen Hilary's is a half truth.
- I agree with R41, as I am too liberal for Hillary. She really is some kind of neocon in her own right, as well as Yugo-bombing Clinton and his NAFTA and bank deregulating ways.
Latest laugh for the fake liberals: Al Gore sells his network to Qatar!
The Democrats are as fake as the Republicans.
- R37 - disagreeing doesn't imply stupidity, unless of course you are on the way left side of the house where you, for some reason, deem your ideals the norm for all of mankind.
I am glad, however, that your are able to get internet access in your closet under the stairs. That must have been life changing for you.
Notice that people who are moderate or right do not attack people when they disagree?
- Er, Clinton's "issues" campaigning were more left-wing than Obama's; there were many comparative studies.
I voted for Obama (twice). But r35, your irrational hatred of Hillary is either based in sexism or you're a rethuglican plant, because it sure ain't based in logic. I personally agree that you have "powerful woman" issues a.k.a. momy issues. Because your vitriol is based on something else than rationality. P.S. Obama is a fan of Hillary, too.
- I meant R41, not R35. ^^^
- R44 You don't get it do you? Let me say this once again. During the primaries Hilary was rightfully exposed as a liar and a phony by the press. Obama was seen as the more honest of the candidates. That same slimy attitude that Mitt Romney ,Hilary also exudes. She comes across as a used car salesman. Did you pay attention to how she was being savaged or were you asleep at the wheel.I don't want a liar the likes of her in The White House again. Do you know about the bombing of Belgrade? Bill and Hil are in good company with Bush Jr and Sr when it comes to war criminality.You should read what wonderful things Hil suggested to be done in Belgrade.There were bridges bombed out and the electricity was out for a long time.hat was fascistic.Are you in the NYC area? How did you feel after 9/11? If you had extremely negative feelings on that day what do you think The Serbians thought about the Clintons or even the US? She's also Republican lite. I don't want Republican lite.I want someone who will fight from the left. Obama is the closet thing we've had on that front for years.
It seems that you are woefully ignorant of Hilary's misgivings. Do you have Daddy issues or are you a faux Republican plant?;)
- I retract former posts. dear Leader was and is the best candidate. Dear Leader should get more terms. Dear Leader knows what is best for me.
- Wtf? I like Obama and campaigned for him. I am just pointing out that Clinton's views were more progressive during the (sexist AND racist campaign). Why does sexism bother you less than racism? Both prejudices are both odious.
Your post doesn't even make sense. WHat kind of faux-Republican would be posting in favor of BOTH Hillary and Obama? I love both of them. I think Obama has been a very good president, inasmuch as he can do with Republican control of one of the halves of congress. There are things he can do better too. Release the hostages of Guantanomo Bay, for starters. But generally he has been good. And she has been a great secretary of state too. Again, she could have been much more left-wing. But she is working FOR the Obama administration and is part of that administration.
The reason I think you are a freeper plant (and/or mommy issues) is because you seem to forget that she is working for Obama and undertaking Obama's foreign policy issues. THEY get along. THEY work together. Hillary campaigned hard for Obama in the general in 2008 and all through 2012. You are either working a divide-and-conquer tactic a-la-PUMA or you are irrational.
Seriously, I am now curious on purely psychological grounds... Do you get along with your mother?
- I am growing fond of r48.
- R48 You evaded my points about the bombing of Belgrade. She's a war criminal like her husband and like Dubya. On that front where is the sexism? Two of them are men and one is a woman.
Hil is also a liar. The fact that you don't understand this is mind-boggling. You are definitely the kool aid drinker of a war criminal/faux Republican! I also mentioned Mitt Romney is a bullshiting sleazebag. Unless I'm wrong he has a dick!
Obama's foreign policy has been his weak point. He hired Hil for political reasons.In my opinion it has been his biggest mistake. She has blood on her hands from Belgrade and nothing can erase that. I wasn't happy with his Mideast policy because it's a continuation of Bush's idiotic policy of bringing democracy to the Middle East. Now we've created an Iran on the Mediterranean called Egypt. Isn't it wonderful how Coptics and women will become third class citizens in their own country?
You must be a lesbian! Maybe a humorless one but you are so obsessed with sexism when I have mentioned that I hate Bill, Dubya,Romney and Hil.
Do you get along with your Daddy? It seems like you have serious Daddy issues.
- R 49 You either are a centrist/right wing Democrat , forgot your psych meds or are drinking Kool Aid straight out of H Clinton's crazy camp!;) One piece of advice the kool aid is poisoned......
- I'm not a lesbian, freeper. I'm not a straight woman. I'm a bisexual woman who gets along great with my sweet, respectful dad (and my amazing, sweet mom, just by the by). They voted for Obama too. I do indeed know about the NATO war in Yugoslavia. My feelings about the rightness or wrongness of that aside, can you please point to the date that Hillary was leader of the free world at the time, as you seem to be blaming her (not fairly, anyway) for something you deem wrong that was undertaken by a totally different person? You seem to conflate Hillary Clinton into her husband, which is peculiar. It's also a tactic used by the right wing.
Obama clearly feels fine about Hillary's decisions and credentials, as he made Clinton secretary of state. How do you feel about that; do you think she has been a poor secretary of state? If not, why not? Do you think it reflects poorly on Obama? If not, why not?
Why don't *you* stop evading me and let me know how you get along with your own mother? I've exposed my relationship with both of mine for your judgement and viperish tongue.
- Lets see how many more times r50 adds to his unhinged, lunatic response.
- R52 When you mentioned sexism,I knew you were a woman! Unbelievable. You tipped your hand.Sexism never even crossed my mind. On that note, I think Hilary is a cunt but so is Bill,Dubya, Romney,Boehner and many others.
Obama is wrong about Hil. I also don't like the drone attacks we are doing as well.So Obama has been very good on domestic policy but not on foreign policy. He hired one of the war criminals who plotted the Bombing of Belgrade. You didn't know about that did you? Hil has been one of Obama's biggest mistakes. Thankfully she is out and someone else will replace her. Kerry is a safe choice though. He's become very corporate.
You have no defense for her lies then?Or her war criminality? The woman is a quasi-Republican as well.
I still think you have issues with males no matter what you say. Nobody mentions sexism at the drop of a hat like that.....
R53 You have no response to H Clinton's lies, her war criminality and her dishonesty either. Once again stop drinking the kool aid and think for yourself.
- All - war crimes? You know dear ledger uses a macabre deck of cards to execute by drone...bypassing congress.
- R54; R55 - you are birds of a crazy feather. R54 - your relationship with your mother, please.
- truth r55. Nut-job r54 should be just as infuriated with Obama as Hillary given his dark drone dealings.
- R57 Still nothing about Hil's involvement with the bombing of Belgrade yet? The last country to bomb Belgrade was Nazi Germany. Hil was the one that came up with the sick idea to bomb the shit out of them.Bill Clinton took her idiotic idea and made it happen.Both are complicit in taht war crime.
Oh and do you remember when she said that she was being fired at in the ex-Yugoslavia? The press exposed her for being a liar.People who were there said that no such thing happened.
R57 You ignorant fool, I mentioned that" I don't like the drone attacks we are doing." You need to take a reading comprehension course. I know it's hard for the brain addled but it can be done.I also said that I don't like Obama on foreign policy,he's become like Dubya lite.
- BAN WOMAN-HATER R58 (I can't list all his 47 posts).
- r52, don't use the word sweet again. And don't feed this psychotic troll.
- Hillary should have left Bill a long time ago. That would have given her some authenticity and respect.
Bill Clinton is an icky. Too much baggage, scamming, war mongering, fucking aroung with women--she should have struck out on her own and established herself as an independant woman.
She is such a contradiction it's confusing.
- Agreed. Let this thread die. There is a seriously disturbed pathetic troll who is finding their purpose in life with all of this anti-Hillary stuff.
- [quote] Recent polls put Hillary ahead of possible Republican challengers in vote-rich Texas and in Kentucky, home of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul.
Mitt Romney carried Kentucky by a percentage margin of 22.69%. (He won it with 60.49% to President Obama nabbing 37.80% in Ky.) Romney carried Texas by 15.79%. (He won it with 57.17% to Obama's 41.38%.)
If the Democrats win a third consecutive presidential cycle, in 2016, and it is with Hillary Clinton elected the 45th president of the United States ... in order for her to flip and carry Texas and Kentucky, she'd be winning an electoral-map blowout to the tune of at least 450 electoral votes. Much more in the way of Republican bastions beyond Tex. and Ky. would be going for her under those circumstances.
This, of course, is silly at this point. But it would be delightful.
- [quote]Hillary has no shot because she is a lying Clinton, and we are tired of them. Too icky, too much baggage.
You're going to have to do better than this.
Both the Clintons have huge approval ratings in the 60's right now. Let's compare that to how the Bushes are doing.
- R63, with regard to Texas, it's important to remember that Obama did well there in 2008, and to look at that number rather than the 2012 number which was not as impressive.
And as Julian Castro has said, Texas is becoming more Latino in each election cycle.
Remember too that Hillary doesn't necessarily have to win states like Texas or Kentucky - just making them competitive hurts the Republicans because they have so many other states they need to win and it ties their resources down. This is how Obama won in 2008 & 2012 - he drained their resources away in states like Virginia & North Carolina where they had been used to winning in the past, and not only did he win those states, but he also won Ohio and Florida as well.
- It should be pointed out that Obama took most of the major cities... Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, and El Passo. Only Ft Worth didn't go to Obama. And virtually every county along the Rio Grande (most of South, South-West Texas) went to Obama as well.
If Hillary & Bill Clinton worked the satellite towns all around Texas, I'm sure they could pull enough votes (minorities, gays, women, and plenty of blue-collar workers) to flip Texas. It would take significant investment, but I really think it could be done. The big cities are theirs, they just have to work on, talk to, and convince the smaller towns all around them.
- With regard to Kentucky, Bill Clinton won that state twice, as he did with Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia & Missouri.
Gore, Kerry & Obama were unable to win in any of those states, and while it is not a guarantee that Hillary will either, she is likely to come closer than anyone else since Bill.
- R66 is correct. That is exactly what Hillary did when she ran for senator from NY. She covered every little pork chop county in NY state and met EVERYONE there.
- Imagine that campaign... Bill Clinton working Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas, Arkansas, & Missouri... Obama working big urban areas around the country to GOTV in places that already are likely to go Democrat, and Hillary working everywhere in between. It would be a landslide.
- True, R68, and there was a big increase in Hillary's vote between her 1st election in New York and her 2nd election. She had a solid win in 2000, but it wasn't massive. She then decided to work harder in 2006 and get upstate New York on board too and not just rely on NYC and won by a huge margin the 2nd time.
- I would send the Obamas to Georgia, North Carolina and Florida to get out the black vote for Hillary.
- Tarrant County (Fort Worth) is key to carriage of Texas. It's a county that has been lately voting for the winner of the state with a percentage, and a percentage margin, of the vote that closely reflects the statewide outcome. Win Texas with, say, 55 percent of the vote. Tarrant County delivers just about on target.
Democrats will need to figure out that area.
These days, Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic base states -- what Ron Brownstein calls "The Blue Firewall" (blue since at least the 1990s) -- which are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Hillary would win the general election carrying the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico (which is getting bluer), Ohio, and Virginia. And, if she would be winning better than Barack Obama (who nationally beat John McCain by 7.26% and Mitt Romney by 3.84%), this would include North Carolina, for certain, and then a mix of other states tearing themselves away from being automatically red. In the past, for prevailing Democrats, it was the majority or all of Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia. She may be better in the likes of Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas. Georgia, as well.
Again, it's too early. And a lot of white people, nationally, will cling to the Republicans -- with their numbers skewered in the South. Nationally, with the gender vote, Hillary would be better than Obama if she nationally nabbed 49% of men (in a statistical tie with the Republican nominee) and 60% of women. That would deliver her at least 55% of the vote nationally. And an outcome for her would be very impressive.
- Hillary would also win New Hampshire. Forgot to mention because it was in the column for George W. Bush in 2000. But when Democrats prevail, N.H. carries.
- Barbra Streisand and billionaire Haim Saban had a closed-door meeting with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi last Thursday to lay out party plans for recapturing the House in the 2014 mid-terms. Streisand is not happy that one half of Congress remains out of their control.
Streisand will also be the chief money organizer in Hollywood should Hillary Clinton decide to run for the White House in 2016. We're talking in the $100 million range.
- And Bill R72.
- Too bad there's no more Secretary of the Interior; Streisand would be perfect for it. Did you see her book?
- Bumping the crazy
- Anti-Hillary trolls: You've got a little under four years to develop your coping mechanism.
Because at that point, unless the planet starts spinning backwards, Hillary Rodham Clinton is going to plunk her pussy right on your face and keep it there for four to eight more years.