Hillary Clinton could win Texas if she runs in 2016
January 31, 2013
Clinton could win Texas
PPP's newest Texas poll finds that, at least for now, Hillary Clinton could win the state in 2016. This follows on the heels of a survey last month where we found she would have a decent chance of winning Kentucky if she makes another White House bid.
50% of Texas voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton to 43% with a negative one. She's universally well liked by Democrats (91/5) and a majority of independents view her positively as well (52/41). She holds narrow leads in hypothetical match ups with Marco Rubio (46/45) and Chris Christie (45/43) and a wider one in a contest against Rick Perry (50/42).
Speaking of Perry, Republicans in Texas have no interest in seeing him run for President again in 2016. Only 19% think he should make a bid to 70% who think he should not, and he ties for 7th in a 9 candidate field that we tested. Leading the way is Marco Rubio at 21%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14%, Rand Paul at 13%, Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan at 11%, Chris Christie at 9%, Perry and Bobby Jindal at 4%, and Susana Martinez at 2%.
Maybe so, but I am in Texas, and I will not vote for her. She will be too old by that time.
Who do you plan on voting for, R1? Chris Christie? Clinton's health is miles ahead of Christie's.
Y'loved Reagan, though, dincha, Texan?
Oh goodie, another corporate Dem. Gets me so excited about 2016!
Get ready Hill!!! Lose those extra 40 pounds!!!
As PPP states above, Hillary could also make Kentucky competitive for the first time since Bill Clinton won it.
R3 sounds like an eldergay.
I'm a Texan too, and I'd prefer to vote for someone younger. If Hillary is the nominee, I'll begrudgingly pull the lever for her.
I've been saying this for months, Poll Troll. I'm glad you're finally catching on.
Hillary also has a very good shot of winning Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana. She has a shot at Arkansas if Bill campaigns heavily for her there, but she's never been nearly as popular in the state as Bill.
She will need a lot of money because so many states will be contestable if she runs. All of us need to start saving up money now so we can fund her campaign.
[quote]I've been saying this for months, Poll Troll. I'm glad you're finally catching on.
My objective in 2012 was to post the polls for the Presidential Election rather than to focus on hypothetical matchups for 2016.
Now that 2012 is over and the 2016 campaign is slowly beginning, it makes sense to look at some of the emerging polls for 2016.
I don't put any redence in these numbers. Hillary Clinton's been out of partisan politics for over 4 years, so her popularity is artificially high. If and when she re-enters partisan politics, her poll numbers will come back to earth.
She's got three votes here.
POLL TROLL - delighted to see you posting again - always interesting and cutting edge stuff. I feel complete again!
This DOMA supporter for President?
It's not going to happen.
Texas is a joke and an embarrassment to the country. Worst state in the Union. They are a bunch of idiot backwoods racists and bigots. 95% are Southern Baptists and they are one of the least educated states. They are following California's path of destruction. There's a good reason they built the Cuntry Music Hall of Fame there. Bunch of racist rednecks. I never stepped foot in that barren desert and never will.
I'm all for Hillary but I'm surprised TX and some of those other Red States are as well. What gives?
Even if she only made Texas competitive, it would be worthwhile.
Competitive = forcing GOP dollars to be spent on a usually safe state.
There are more than three years to go until the 2016 election, but Hillary Clinton has an early advantage over several top Republican candidates, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday, which also found continuing support for universal background checks on guns.
Clinton had the edge in a hypothetical presidential race against New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, defeating him by 45 percent to 37 percent, according to the poll. She won by a wider 50 to 34 percent margin against Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and 50 to 38 percent against Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), echoing earlier polling that's shown her as a formidable challenger.
But the poll also had good news for Christie, who ran the best of the three Republican candidates polled. He won against two other Democrats seen as presidential contenders, eking out a 3-point advantage over Vice President Joe Biden, and a resounding 27-point margin over New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Other matchups were closer, with Rubio losing narrowly to Biden and tying with Cuomo. Ryan ran slightly behind Biden and just ahead of Cuomo.
The Quinnipiac poll, which surveyed 1,944 registered voters between Feb. 27 and March 4, didn't test primary election matchups.
Over my fat dead body.
Christie is definitely the strongest Republican right now, but I don't see how he gets the nomination after Hurricane Sandy. Repubs hold grudges FOREVER. And I do think his weight and temper become major issues once it starts getting serious.
HRC certainly knows how to handle the extreme wing of the GOP. Her smack down of Rand Paul at the Benghazi hearing demonstrates her ability to fire back by making the wingnuts look foolish by merely throwing their words back at them.
That will be the major difference between HRC's and Obama's style: he has allowed the GOP to dictate the narrative and steamroll him; HRC does not suffer fools.
I love Hillary but I hope she doesn't run. The Clintons are over. Time to ride off into the sunset and let some fresh blood take over.
It would be a shame for her to end her brilliant career by losing a run for the White House.
Biden needs to take a pass also.
Don't ask me who that leaves, but the Dems need to get to work.
R21, there is no "fresh blood" in the Democratic party who would stand a chance against Christie, Rubio, Ryan or Bush, except Hillary or Biden.
Well, the polls disagrees with you r21. If the polls don't indicate a win, it certainly is indicative that the HRC is still as relevant as ever. As popular than she has ever been.
You can stay home on 2016 if you like.
She can't win. Too many lies and problems in her background. We need someone fresh and progressive in 2016. Somebody nobody is talking about yet. A woman would be ideal of course.
Yeah. This nobody who no one is talking about can easily win a victory in only 3 years. Never mind that you need financial backing that starts earlier than election season.
R23, we're all entitled to our opinions, and that's all anyone has at this point. Please go fuck yourself with your "stay at home" shit. Hillary is over. Face facts.
R24, you're delusional. Hillary has rehabilitated her image over the past THIRTEEN years. Someone "nobody is talking about yet" would not have the chops for the job.
I am so fucking sick of "fresh" candidates -- candidates with half a page resumes and very little experience/voting records. That always applies to the youth candidate. I'd rather see Jeb Bush over green Marco Rubio for the Repub nominee because of his experience, though I will vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is.
The prognosticator who can tell us who will win in 2016 @r26. Do tell us when cancer will be cured.
Hillary may run and may end up getting the nomination and becoming president. But I wouldn't put too much stock in polls and pundits' predictions at this point. I'm reminded of all the polls leading up to 2008 that showed Hillary was the inevitable nominee for the Democrats and Giuliani was the inevitable nominee for the GOP. A lot can happen between now and 2016. If Obama has a successful 2nd term and the Democrats are on a roll, I would expect a lot of Democrats to test the waters in 2016.
"Hillary is over" is certainly an opinion. It is also a really stupid and uninformed one, and must work overtime to blatantly ignore patently obvious facts about her continued popularity, universal name recognition, enthusiastic base, and mega fund raising capabilities.
She is far and away the 2016 frontrunner for both the Democratic nomination and the White House. She has a long list of substantial advantages that no candidate in history has ever come to the table with.
That said. No, she will not win Texas, nor will she bother trying to compete there.
She doesn't have the chops for the job, she's a Christo conservative who buys into American World Domination, she's stupid and wrong about the economy. If you did get her and she did win, it would be more years of disappointment and betrayal.
Dear God R30, get a life.
Dear God, troll, get a brain.
She was the better candidate back then too, but people still wanted to go with a man that talked about "hope" and had no real experience. A guy who calls social security for "entitlement" and has no beef cutting spending that hurts the middle class, yet doesn't dare to impose taxes on the rich. Obama is a hypocrite. I laugh when you call Hillary a conservative. At least she would get things done. At least she's got a spine and won't back out of negotiations with the republicunts. Obama is the worst president USA has ever had, sure he has done good for LGBT rights, I'll give him that, but come on.. he's such a bad negotiator. He just gives into everything the republicans want. He doesn't stand up to them at all, and for what? Just because he wants to be a president "down the middle". Ugh, and he sacrifices the whole middle class while doing so too.
"I'm reminded of all the polls leading up to 2008 that showed Hillary was the inevitable nominee for the Democrats and Giuliani was the inevitable nominee for the GOP."
Giuliani was NEVER an "inevitable" nominee, he just led in the early 2007 polling.
Of course it's too early to predictt 2016. But the Hilary is over troll is delusional. As of 2013 she is clearly not over (or even close).She's probably the most not over politician in the US today.
Obama had a wildly enthusiastic Dem base of volunteer canvassers in 2008, combined with a great organization; Mark Penn totally sucked as head of Team Hillary. If she ran in 2016, it's likely that she'd have a better organization, and just as enthusiastic volunteers. Frankly, I had thought that Obama's pitiful showing from upstate NY down to the Little Texas region of New Mexico was due to conservadems finally bailing on the party altogether. However, since Hillary (whose positions themselves are just as "liberal") is polling so strongly, I'm going to cave and admit that racism is a serious factor.
I mean who'd be likeliest to run against her? Marco has ruled himself out (IMHO), so it looks like Lil Ricky (whose '16 campaign began the day he conceded to Mittster), JEB (the so-called "moderate, 'sane' one") and Rand ("I'm no squishy Bush, but my knuckles don't drag as much as Ricky's") Paul. I've read that The Elites might try to push Christie, if so, that won't go far.
You should just say that President Obama is a rightwinger. Half of that speaks to imcompetence and the other half to inexperience. Both are bullshit. See through it: What you're really saying is that liberals were conned by ConservaDem 44th president. That's really your viewpoint.
We will sit back and laugh at the "Hillary is over" comment. President Obama will be informally endorsing her, they apparently have a great relationship. The bitter anti-Hillary trolls will be so disappointed, so they will vote for Jeb Bush:)
Take President Obama's map of 2012 -- 28 states plus District of Columbia; worth 332 electoral votes -- and that's what we have with Hillary Clinton, if she were to be the 2016 Democratic nominee and general-election winner.
Here the other states she could win (if the trajectory is that overwhelming):
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
West Virginia (5)
Add to this Nebraska's 1st Congressional District (Lincoln) and 2nd Congressional District (Omaha)
Potential is 40 states, District of Columbia, and 482 electoral votes. That would leave the Republican to be most assured with holding 10 states and 56 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (statewide and the 3rd Congressional District; 3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), Utah (6), and Wyoming (3).
Latest report, she would beat every single Republican presidential contender.
"Over my fat dead body. --Jeb"
You're on. We'll serve you up A la 'mo style.
The female support for a Hillary campaign would be epic. Women are ready for the first female POTUS and they will turn out like never before to vote for her. The more Republicans try to outlaw abortion, contraception and equal pay for women, and you get an even bigger groundswell for her in 2016. I'd like to see Hillary pick Brian Schweitzer as her running mate.
The Republican nomination is going to come down to Rubio, Ryan and Paul. Christie and Jeb Bush will never get the nomination.
She would put West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas, Georgia, Missouri and Arizona in play. Tennessee and Indiana are less likely. North Carolina is turning bluer but that's a slow process and depends on high black turnout. Black and Latino turnout is likely to be good with Clinton but not at Obama levels. However, the Latino percentage of the electorate is likely to go up one point by 2016 regardless.
We've already established that Democrats can win a base election with strong turnout. It would be interesting to see if the Obama turnout machine and Clinton's stronger polling in some purple and reddish states could turn 2016 into a Democratic landslide.
Unfortunately, I think we're going to be stuck with a Republican congress through 2010. But if Clinton is running for reelection in 2010 and is able to keep some state legislatures blue, there's hope that a stronger Democratic hand at redistricting time will erase some of the GOP gerrymandering advantage.
i'm r44. make that 2020. sorry
The fact that Indiana went blue in 2008 while Kentucky did not is telling how much that state has changed. Tennessee votes like Kentucky.
By the way: 26 states were won by President Obama with his re-election in 2012. I listed 14 more, including Ind., Ky., and Tenn.
This, again, has to do with potential. But it would require Hillary Clinton to probably have to win about 57 percent of the vote nationally in order to win that many states.
Would someone consider eating a chili dog then pinching a huge loaf in my mouth?
R46, racism was a part of why Kentucky and Tennessee (along with Arkansas, West Virginia etc.) moved away from Obama during the past 2 elections. And Indiana was just a fluke in 2008.
The point is that KY, TN, AK, WV etc. are states that Bill Clinton won, and polling shows that Hillary would also be competitive there.
Brian Schweitzer is too fat to run on the Hillary ticket.