I think Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, for Lincoln, for sure. I'd say those are a lock.
Speilberg will have to fight Ang Lee and David O.Russell for Best Director, and Sally Fields and Anne Hathaway are so close for Best Supporting Actress it's too close to call.
Best Picture is not Lincoln's to lose. I think Argo & Life of Pi could ruin that. So could Silver Linings Playbook. My money's on Argo.
Altho Zero Dark 30 could sneak in there.
(There are no Best Actress nominations for Lincoln, but I'm not convinced Jennifer Lawrence is a lock for it.Jessica Chastain might grab something.
I'm predicting an upset in the supporting actor category. DeNiro or Arkin over Jones. Mostly because Jones has had a sour face on for months and didn't even show UP to the SAGs.
If Argo wins Best Picture, it might pull Arkin along to a Best Supporting Actor win as well. Otherwise, Argo will have won BP without winning directing, screenplay (which should go to Kushner), any acting awards, or cinematography (should go to Life of Pi).
Haneke for Best Director. Don't be surprised...
I "get" that Lincoln was boring, but Daniel Day Lewis will be the first man to win 3 Oscars in the Best Actor category. He's unfucking believable in "Lincoln".
I watched the first 45 minutes and kept waiting for something to happen. Just a bunch of people sitting around talking. I turned it off. Does it get any better?
Strongest: Best Actor, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction, and Costuming.
Up in the Air: Picture, Supporting Actor, Cinematography
Unlikely at this point: Supporting Actress, Score, Editing
Is Streep the first (and only) woman to win 3 Oscars in the Best Actress category?
Streep has two leads and one supporting.
Kate Hepburn had 4 leads.
That's Katharine to you, R14.
R11 What were expecting right after you decided to watch a historical movie? Like alien invasion and car chasing? Didn't the assasination scene was...oh wait, you didn't finish it, my bad.
[quote] I watched the first 45 minutes and kept waiting for something to happen. Just a bunch of people sitting around talking. I turned it off. Does it get any better?
No
DDL is good in LINCOLN, but he's a vain actor, if you ask me, vain and self-regarding. I'm in the minority, I guess, but I don't really enjoy watching him onscreen. Admittedly, without him, Scorcese's GANGS OF NEW YORK would be unwatchable. Nonetheless. He's kind of the Paul Muni of the '00s: You can see the work he's doing, you can be impressed by his artistic integrity and honesty and hard work, but: that doesn't mean he's fun to watch.
Best Actor is a lock.
Everything else is tenuous, though Tommy Lee Jones' chances just went up.
DDL has covered himself in those nasty tribal tats...
