Please take my poll.
Remember, please vote not for what you want to win, but what you think will actually win.
I doubt it will go to a foreign film two years in a row.
I don't know. Argo and Les Mis really surprised me on Sunday night. I can see Lewis and Spielberg winning Oscars, but maybe it won't win the big one. But the Golden Globes are not usually Oscar predictors.
The experts at Goldderby say Lincoln, Spielberg, Daniel Day Lewis, Chastain (with Lawrence a close 2nd), Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Hathaway.
This year there will be no sweeps.
[quote]The experts at Goldderby
Who are they?
The winner will be I Eat Shit!
Starring guess who>
R2, the globes have zero to do with who will win
The "experts" at Goldderby are hardly experts. A few months ago they were saying Les Mis would sweep. They know as much as you or I do.
I have a feeling it will be between Life of Pi & Zero Dark Thirty. I think Les Miserables & Lincoln will be in the mix with Argo bringing up the rear. That's it. If anything else comes in it was fixed.
These are the top five, and honestly, Zero/30 and Pi are going to battle for supremacy. Everyone who is a member of the academy, not just actors, but everyone, gets to vote on Best Picture.
I think Life of Pi & "30" are perfect for them. One is an uplifting fantasy beautifully articulated, the other is a tale of vengeance. If you think the academy is bothered by torture anymore than the public is, you're nuts. Most people were fine with torture in real life and sure didn't give a damn about it in a movie about killing Bin Laden.
Zero is a true story so it's all good. Argo is a true story, too, but Argo happened 30 years ago, and we depended on the Canadians to a certain extent.Zero30 happened yesterday.
OTOH, as I think about it, Argo has all the corny elements the Academy loves. It has Hollywood rescuing the hostages.
So maybe Argo is a strongr possibility then I think. Anyway those are my top five. Bothing else matters.
The fact that Bigelow missed out on a nomination means there is little regard for ZDT, r8.
It's not a frontrunner at all.
The race is between Lincoln, SLP, and Amour.
[quote]I have a feeling it will be between Life of Pi & Zero Dark Thirty.
You're a moron.
Who do you think has the best turds for 2012? I'm HUNGRY!
Only 5 nominees should be allowed in the first place. This category has become less meaningful since they broke the 5-nominee rule.
It will be Lincoln with Silver Linings Playbook being the only possible spoiler. Has a film ever won Best Picture without the director being at least nominated? That pretty much kills Argo, Les Mis, and Zero Dark Thirty's chances.
I think you'd be wrong tonderestimate Life of Pi. Just sayin'.
I'm not a moron. I think Zero/30 has a damned good chance to win this. That box office spoke volumes. They have the best of all worlds. They don't have to give Bigelow anything and can still honor the film.
I am sticking with my top five. Argo, Zero, Lincoln, Les Miserables and Pi. Silver Linings has peaked. Lincoln could win, but it was too "talky" too "political."
I think in truth the Academy may discharged it's obligation to honor Lincoln by giving awards to DDL & Sally.
Alan Arkin will get another Oscar for Argo. Jennifer Lawrence will fight it out with Naomi Watts or whomnever. She isn't a lock. But if they have to appease Harvey they will do it thru her.
The last time a film won Best Pic without a director nomination was Driving Miss Daisy and it had been forever before then, I believe. It could happen with Argo. But the trouble is there's no other big award it's likely to win unless it gets editing. Weird to imagine a Best Pic having won only one other award. Silver Linings looks to get Actress and maybe even DeNiro for Supporting. I don't see it winning Best Pic because it's more about the performances. Lincoln will get Adapted Screenplay and Actor and maybe Prod. Design and Costumes. Life of Pi will get Cinematography, Vis Effects, Score and maybe a few other tech ones. Director, I think then, will come down to Spielberg and Ang Lee. Something's telling me with all these recent awards not going for Spielberg and Lincoln that the more people see what Ang Lee pulled off with Pi that it might be the surprise Director and Best Pic winner racking up 5 to 7 awards. It's a knockout of a movie with big themes and bigger emotional impact than Lincoln. Anything can happen as this is already an unorthodox year with Affleck and Bigelow out of Director, but the most nominated films usually win Best Pic, so with Lincoln at 12 noms to Pi's 11, I'd call it between those two.
Wings (the first best pic oscar winner), Grand Hotel and Driving Miss Daisy were not nominated for best direction.
It could certainly happen again this year. Then again it could easily not happen.
SILVER LININGS IS BOUT TO BE HUGE CUZ IMM GONNA TELL LL MY FRIENDS YALL
Argo won't win. The foreign press is susceptible to Affleck (and many others who tend to win GG and not Oscars or other awards) in a way the Academy members aren't. They are aware of certain - uh - things about him and while he's respected he's at best in the category of Clooney when it comes to being a film-maker (as opposed to an actor).
Bigelow's movie won't win - it's too hot and there's a backlash - no one is giving her another, and the director snub proves it. Les Mis may pick up something, but not picture - it's recognized as a successful BAD movie. Pi's a one-trick show. The rest..... obscure.
It's Lincoln. Dark horse is Amour. The Academy may look at the mix, shrug, and say it's time to recognize a challenging director, a serious adult movie, tremendous performances on a human scale, and give it up.
But I doubt it.
Life of Pi. Don't underestimate it.
All will be revealed as far as acting awards at SAG.
MOMMAS SUPPOSED TO LOVE BABY, LOVE BABY!!!
SLP is getting picked up by more theaters this weekend. I just want to give the box office queens a heads up.
I think it's going to be ARGO, with Spielberg getting Best Director - unless the Academy really feels like shafting him.
I still wouldn't rule out Sally Field for Supporting.
Daniel Day-Lewis is a lock. Jessica Chastain is approaching lock status. If she wins at SAG, that's pretty much it.
I think Christoph Waltz could steal it from Tommy Lee Jones - the one nod that Django is going to get.
Of those I've seen (still not seen Django, Life of Pi or ZD30) , there is one masterpiece in the bunch. Amour. It has very little chance of winning.
Argo is a very good movie, highly entertaining, well directed and cleverly written and composed.
Lincoln is an equally solid movie until the last five minutes when Spielberg indulges himself and goes to schlock. And the final flaws are significant.
Beasts of the Southern Wild is lyrical and haunting.
Silver Linings Playbook is a relatively intelligent rom com, and Cooper gives an especially fine performance. The movie is nothing more, nothing less.
But none of these achieve the greatness of Amour. Of these four, I would be just as happy with any of them as with any other.
Les Mis is not the worst movie musical made in recent years and not the best (Chicago remains the one great one), it's not even the best mediocre adaptation of a musical in recent years (for all their faults, Sweeney Todd and even Phantom (arguably as good a movie as might be made of Phantom, for what that's worth) were far better directed). Les MIs is a mix of some fine and even fleetingly very fine scenes and some intolerably bad ones. I give it a C.
I think Casablanca won Best Picture without winning any other awards.
Oh, r23, Phantom was a piece of shit. Thanks for reminding me. Sorry, Les Mis - which isn't great by any means - is a vastly better film than Phantom was. Phantom had the black hole of Emmy Rossum at its center, and mediocre performances from Butler and Patrick Wilson. Jackman can't sing it, but his acting in Les Mis is exceptional.
It was Rebecca that won Best Pic without winning anything else. Casablanca won three, Best Director and Screenplay, besides Best Picture.
Thanks r26. I knew it was a classic but missed the mark by a year or two!