At the very least, I feel that Jennifer Lawrence -- considered the front-runner a month ago -- will now be lucky if she gets nominated.
It's Jennifer Lawrence versus Jessica Chastain. No one else has a shot. Marion Cotillard and Naomi Watts look fairly strong contenders for nominations, but have virtually no chance to win.
The last slot will be filler and will probably default to Helen Mirren, although if the little girl from "Beasts of the Southern Wild" gets it, look for a lot of contrarians to suggest she's going to be the surprise upset.
Nobody cares or has seen The Impossible. It has no buzz.
I suspect she will win as well.
I actually saw The Impossible. I completely do not understand why people are saying Watts will be nominated. She's good at looking scared and being in pain. And then disappears from the last half of the movie. I'm trying to imagine which scene they would show... The one where she's grimacing with pain after getting lanced by a tree branch? The one where she's tumbling in the water? Or perhaps the endless scenes of her being forced along the water by the tsunami? I'm imagining half of her performance is done by stunt people.
Right, she's okay, but has nothing to do.
She did more in KONG - at least she had to learn a soft shoe.
What about Marion Cotillard? And where is the Marion Cotillard Troll?
Nah, it'll be Rachel Weisz in a staggering upset victory.
Oops. I'm having 2nd thoughts haven't seen the movie and thought it was Ewan McGregor who is missing from most of the the movie. Guess the real star is young son who is great but doesn't have a chance for a nod...
I thought I was having a Brenda Fricker moment when I haven't seen the movie but knew she would win...
I also forgot about Jessica Chastain...
Chastain and Lawrence and Cotillard are locks. Probably Watts, although Weisz could take it away from her. The fifth slot will hopefully go to Emmanuelle Riva and not Qjonbenet Wallis.
Chastain is boring as shit, and her film has suffered a huge backlash because of the torture scenes and message.
She will be nominated, but won't win.
The race is wide open this year, and none of them are 'locks', not even Lawrence after winning the GG (which will happen).
I think Riva will get in instead of Cotillard.
It'll be Riva, Lawrence, Chastain, Weisz, Watts.
The Quenzibl Wallis girl won't get it, and that's just as well. Girls that age shouldn't be forced to go through all this.
Mirren won't make it either, thankfully. She's way overrated.
The Streep Turd (tm), no one gives a shit what you think.
Naomi is pulling a Hathaway!
[quote]The actress reveals how she relived the day she nearly died for a role that’s already receiving serious Oscar buzz.
Its a packed field this year. Wallis, Riva, Lawrence, Chastain, Weisz, Cotillard, Mirren, and Watts could all reasonably be expected to get a nom. She'll be lucky to get in the top five, but will win when she plays Diana.
[quote]but will win when she plays Diana.
Ick. That movie looks like it should be on Lifetime.
Chastain's going to win. It's too bad Viola Davis won't get in for "Won't Back Down." Carmen Ejogo won't get in for Supporting Actress either. Sighs.
No because she's no Fay Wray. Her work in KK is beyond belief! Climbing the ladder up the ESB??? KK should just through her off at the end. Or take her with him.
KK has the most drawn out death scene.
Finally he drops. PJ sucks!
Be funnier if she runs for Brody and knocks them both off!
And she never lost her heels.
Didn't happen, even with video.
I just can't see Chastain winning. While she certainly has received good reviews, she hasn't been the center of praise for the film, unlike, say, Weisz or Watts or Riva or Cotillard or even Wallis, for that matter.
Finally saw it today and LOVED it. During most of Naomi's scenes couldn't stop thinking whoever does makeup should win Oscar. She looked so ugly during most of film she made Charlize Theron in MOnster look like a beauty queen...
That's not make-up, OP. Watts is a plain looking woman.
I'm sorry, but who is Riva?? Is that a nickname I'm not privy to?
i think the female of Amour
I doubt she'll win, but she'll almost certainly be nominated.
It'll be Chastain, Lawrence, Cotillard, Watts, and Wallis/Riva/Mirren/Weisz for the fifth spot.
I agree it will probably be Lawrence vs Chastain for the win, should be an interesting race.
The Impossible should get nominations for visuall effects and score also. It deserves BP more than Django...
Poor Ewan McGregor he is alawys acting his heart out and he ever gets a nomination.He is more deserving than Robert DeNiro..
Just saw The Impossible this evening. As a technical cinematic achievement, it's astonishing -- the recreation of the tsunami is breathtaking and horrifying. And while I suspect the script is more fragile than it appears, the director knows how to ratchet up the story to create a genuinely emotionally wrenching experience -- I haven't cried this much at a movie in a decade. I agree with r29 that it deserves nominations for visual effects and score, as well as sound and production design, maybe even Best Picture. (It's also a movie that requires a big screen to really appreciate it.)
The performances: I'll start with Tom Holland and Ewan McGregor, both of whom are fantastically good. McGregor, especially, had me balling during the phone sequence. An amazing actor; a shame he's never been nominated, but I have a feeling he might make the cut this year.
As for Naomi, she's excellent, as well. I suspect much of the praise and Oscar talk is due to the immense physical challenge of the role, while also communicating the emotional layers of the character at the same time, and she does it marvelously, almost effortlessly. So, yeah, I could see her winning Best Actress, especially if the movie is a hit (which it deserves to be).