The Hollywood Reporter outlines how crowded December is for movie releases. What do you think might tank?
I can't see either the Streisand or Midler comedies doing insane business (and I can't believe that Streisand and Midler both have movies out and it's not even the 80's).
I also think Jack Reacher will shock, tanking badly.
I hope Jack Reacher will flop.
ENOUGH with Tom Cruise already.
Tom Cruise is not Jack Reacher who is rugged and about 6'-6" or something.
I love Bette Midler.
I love Marisa Tomei.
However, that Parental Guidance thing just looks like a nightmare.
He's also getting on in years, and movies with just a character name in the title for some reason don't always bode well. John Carter comes to mind. I think outside of the Mission Impossible films he's not a guarantee of a hit whatsoever anymore.
Yes, the audience of str8 male teens was clamoring for a Bette and Marisa movie.
I hate polls! But I'll list the movies:
This is 40
The Guilt Trip
Zero Dark Thirty (limited release)
Promised Land (limited release)
I kind of hope Django tanks...I am pretty much over the Tarantino rip-off...er..."homage" style of filmmaking he has created.
I don't know. They all look ok on paper and of course there are different expectations for all of them. Jack Reacher can be successful with significantly smaller numbers than The Hobbit, for instance.
I have a feeling Life of Pi (opening Wed) will be the first casualty of the Holiday season.
Well, there's no way The Hobbit is tanking.
No way is Les Miz flopping
I read Life of Pi and I can't for the life of me figure out how they are going to make this film work. I mean it was fine reading about days on a raft with a tiger but...
Is this kid good enough to pull a Hanks/Wilson bit?
I think Les Mis will flop domestically, but be big overseas.
Life of Pi for sure, there is no buzz on it.
Promised Land and Zero Dark Thirty unless reviews are through the roof and Oscar noms for Best Picture happen.
I will say the latest trailer for Zero Dark Thirty playing before Skyfall looks pretty great.
How could Les Miz flop? It has millions of obsessive fans.
"It has millions of obsessive fans."
Rent has millions of obsessive fans but the movie flopped
Phantom of The Opera was a total flop. Why do they think people want to see Les Miz? Wouldn't surprise me if it was a total flop, failing that, somewhere around Evita.
Les Miz and The Hobbit will do predictably well. Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway are bigger stars than Gerard Butler and Emmy Rossum, r15. The time is right for another big musical, and the time for that is now.
The Guilt Trip will be a surprise hit.
Zero Dark Thirty will do good business in limited release; Promised Land less so. Amour will do well in limited release as well, based on critical reception.
Django will do ok, but not great.
Jack Reacher will underperform, at the very least. Rock of Ages tanked this year, and there really is no demand for another Cruise franchise.
I think the Les Miz fans are more dedicated than Rent or Phantom. We'll see.
Rent (the stage musical) flopped in London, and never really made an impact overaseas. Les Miz is an international stage hit.
Yes, I know you can say that about Phantom, but as noted above, it had no big movie star names - unless you count Minnie Driver in a small role.
The Jack Reacher trailer I saw this weekend actually looked pretty decent. I suspect people who cannot buy tickets for sold out showings of The Hobbit will opt for Jack Reacher.
Parental Guidance is DOA.
This is 40 will probably tank as well.
I suspect The Guilt Trip will surprise and perform well. It's the closest thing to a broad comedy film on the schedule and those always play well over Christmas.
The 3D release of Monsters, Inc. should perform very well. It's the only kid film on the schedule, apart from The Hobbit.
Lone Ranger looks laughable.
Some spokesthingy for Universal Studios was quoted as saying part of Les Mis takes place around Christmas. I don't recall that. Barring a rewrite, can anybody recall any Christmas in Les Mis?
The commercial for Bette's new movie is painful to watch. I cannot imagine sitting thru the entire movie. Poor Bette.
I still want to see Django, even if characters are wearing what appear to be Ray-Ban sunglasses or should I say, sun spectacles.
Loved Phantom but then I'm biased. There wasn't enough chemistry or passion between the leads to make the story at all believable. Why does Hollywood keep making that same mistake? Men need to be cast because they're great actors, who can do a great job of faking emotion and desire.
Listen, if Les Mis is actually GOOD and gets good reviews - then it's a hit, possibly a huge one.
Phantom flopped because the movie stank to high heaven - almost every decision made (including most of the casting) was off the mark. A terrible, terrible film.
And Rent went the opposite way - very respectful, but just not very good.
Rent itself hasn't had half the cachet as a play that Phantom and Les Mis have.
It will be Babs versus Bette this Christmas. Babs will win because her film is actually pretty good. Bette will lose because Parental Guidance is a stinker.
[quote]How could Les Miz flop? It has millions of obsessive fans.
Phantom of the Opera flopped, but it has millions of obsessive fans.
They'll all flops.
I am the Earth Mother, and they're all flops.
R21, I don't recall Christmas and I saw the play 4xs but it was very cold and snowy around that barricade.
Are you sure you didn't mishear? The movie is to be released on Christmas Day.
[quote]Some spokesthingy for Universal Studios was quoted as saying part of Les Mis takes place around Christmas. I don't recall that. Barring a rewrite, can anybody recall any Christmas in Les Mis?
I read the leaked screenplay, and the whole Fantine storyline takes place in early winter. When Valjean goes to retrieve her daughter Costte, it's Christmast Eve and the Thenardier's are hosting an Xmas party at their Inn. That's taken directly from the book.
What I liked about the script is that it incorporates a lot of elements from the novel that the musical left out.
I think Les Miz will do really well. Of all the Xmas movies opening, it has the most buzz Oscar wise.
Tom Cruise as Jack Reacher.
Anyone who's read a Jack Reacher novel knows what a BAAAAAAD idea this is.
There is huge excitement over Les Miz. Phantom had an execrable director, and Rent has always had much more of a niche audience, so comparisons to those two stage-to-film examples are less apt that comparisons to say, Mamma Mia. (And sometimes crap does bring in cash: Hairspray the musical was HORRIBLE as a film but made big bucks anyway.)
I think "Les Miz" will do respectable business. As someone mentioned, it probably won't recoup it's $70-$80 million budget stateside, but when foreign gross is taken into account, it will probably double that -- $160 million total. But not a runaway success like "Chicago." For one, "Les Miz" is long, and two, it's almost wall-to-wall singing, which is fine on stage but on film can be downright unbearable (see "Evita"). I predict its debut will be big (#2 or #3 for the weekend), but I anticipate a lot of walk-outs. In the end, only die-hard "Les Miz" geeks and musical theater fans will go to this, and whoever else they happen to drag along. But the average moviegoer will probably avoid it.
"Of all the Xmas movies opening, it has the most buzz Oscar wise."
Oscar buzz doesn't always translate to big bucks at the box office
Life of Pi is over-performing. Reviews are stellar, and word of mouth is excellent. Not close to a flop
When Marisa Tomei and Tom Everett Scott are ABOVE the title, it's easy to predict a flop.
If Reacher flops it's because people are sick of Cruise and his Scientology cult b.s. and his pathetic life. He now has the cult searching for wifey #4 for him to keep up the facade while he carries on a bizarre relationship with David Miscavige.
Oops sorry that was a bit OT.
I still think Cruise can do well in a movie people want to see (like Mission Impossible). But he's a bad fit for Jack Reacher, the title of the movie is awful and there is a lot of competition.
Les Miz will be a hit. Guilt Trip will be a hit. The Hobbit will be a hit. That's it.
I thought Les Miserables was OTT and boring as fuck onstage.
[quote] I also think Jack Reacher will shock, tanking badly.
Streisand will supplant Sandra Bullock as "America's Sweetheart" with the release of The Guilt Trip.
OP...The Hobbit and Les Miserables are already getting raves from critics.
[quote]I thought Les Miserables was OTT and boring as fuck onstage
You're fucking boring. Why don't you go back to watching your Transformer movies.
Oooh, how very waspish, r44. Cutting and hurtful.
"Les Miz" is hard to follow on stage, especially for a first-timer. The first time I watched it, I had no idea what was going on. Since it's all-sung and sometimes the singing overlaps between several characters that you can't make out what everyone is saying. It wasn't until I got the Complete Symphonic Recording, which includes a pamphlet with the complete libretto and an epilog to boot, that I understood what was being sung. The subsequent times I watched it, it was easier to follow, since I knew what the characters were saying and I was familiar with the music.
But having read the leaked screenplay, the film does explain a lot and incorporates more elements from the book that I think improves on the musical.
I'm sorry, r45...I was having a bad day today.
[quote] "Les Miz" is hard to follow on stage, especially for a first-timer. The first time I watched it, I had no idea what was going on.
Perhaps schools should retire "Catcher in the Rye" and reinstate real literature in their curriculum. Then maybe people wouldn't need a recording and a complete libretto in order to figure out the story.
I meant "a synopsis to boot." Sorry.
I accept your apology, r47 - thank you.
[quote]Perhaps schools should retire "Catcher in the Rye" and reinstate real literature in their curriculum. Then maybe people wouldn't need a recording and a complete libretto in order to figure out the story.
WTF is your problem, R48? I was talking about the musical, not the book, which btw I was inspired to read after I became acquainted with said musical.
You sound like such a pretentious twat! Not many people would have read the book. But still you shouldn't have to read a damn novel in order to follow a musical. Should I have read "Gone with the Wind" before the movie so that I can understand it better? No, the movie should do that on its own, which it does just fine.
I loved the book, liked the musical but I'm not so convinced it will sell on the big screen. I guess I'm just not that into the current brand of musical (I really didn't like Chicago for example). But I hear it's supposed to be really good.
Parental Guidance should be the final nail in Bette's movie career.
Billy Crystal (ugh) and Bette Midler are as old as the jokes in that trailer!
Bette could still have a career if she didn't pick meh scripts. There are good roles for older women, but she needs to go indie.
I love R44 criticising someone for not liking Les Miz by saying go watch Transformers. I like Les Miz, but it really is like the Transformers of musical theatre. It's incredibly overblown with the ballads and the continual musical asides explaining every single thought a character is having. There is literally nothing subtle about it whatsoever, it's basically a big melodrama.
Well, it's coming out on November 30th so not really a December release, but "Killing Them Softly" with Brad Pitt, looks like it will NOT flop from the trailer, and I am definitely going to see it.
Killing them Softly is a major flop. As are Argo and Silver Linings Playbook.
Les Miserables will not meet its extraordinarily inflated expectations.
Les Miz is just for homos
The Tom Cruise movie will flop. People went to see Mission Impossible because it was, uh, MIssion Impossible, and NOT because it was a Tom Cruise movie. Why doesn't Hollywood understand that? There is no longer interest in him.
Parental Guidance? Really? Who thought that was a good idea? It looks bloody awful.
Les Miz? A SMASH! I hated the play, but I can't wait to see this movie. Everything about it just seems right: the timing, the cast, the grandness of it, the storyline.
Guilt trip? I can't wait to see it! The trailer looks wonderful, and, although I don't really care for either Streisand or Rogen, the combination looks appealing: old world Jew and new assimilated jew. It looks great.
[quote]Killing them Softly is a major flop. As are Argo and Silver Linings Playbook.
How is ARGO as flop? It's grossed $156 million ($100 million domestically) on a $44.5 million budget. It's already made back its money 3.5 times.
The Streisand and Milder movies will flop. Tom Cruise movie could be medium-hit or flop. He has one coming out later that sounds more interesting.
"It's grossed $156 million ($100 million domestically) on a $44.5 million budget. It's already made back its money 3.5 times."
You aren't factoring in things like marketing costs.
The Jack Reacher previews look laughable. I hope it signals the end of Tammy's career as an action star.
I too am of the camp that thinks LES MISÉRABLES won't do well. I don't think it will flop, per se, but I think it will underperform. The only people excited for this are LES MIZ fans, musical theater geeks, and some curious people. I've no doubt it will open big (even EVITA opened at #2), but I predict walk-outs. Every musical movie I've seen the past decade has resulted in several walk-outs (SWEENEY TODD, NINE, HAIRSPRAY, PHANTOM, PRODUCERS, even CHICAGO), from people I guess who tried to give these films a chance but decided it was not for them. The average moviegoer won't sit through a 2.5 hour badly sung-through musical.
Speaking of EVITA, I think its success will mirror that film. EVITA flopped stateside -- only $50 million on a $55 million budget -- but it grossed a total $141 million worldwide. Likewise, I don't think LES MIZ will recoup its $60-65 million investment domestically, but when the foreign gross is taken into account, it would have made a small profit. But it won't be the juggernaut many people are anticipating/hoping, which will hurt its chances come Oscar time. Do you think BLIND SIDE and Bullock would've gotten nominations/win had it flopped or done just all right? In order for LES MIZ to be a major contender, it will need to be a box office phenomenon, and I just don't see that happening.
R63, even so, how much would marketing costs be? Even if you add an extra $44.5 million to cover marketing (which, btw, I think is too much, but I'm just being generous), that amounts to $89 million, so it still has made a $67 million profit. No matter how you slice it, ARGO is far from a flop.
Anyone who says anything bad about Les Miz will be hunted down and killed.
Well the other thing, R65, that a lot of people seem to forget is that it's been around for almost 30 years! I wouldn't consider myself a fan of the show but even I've been dragged to it twice (B'way & nat'l tour). I can't imagine sitting through it again, even if Barbra Streisand performed it all with sock puppets.
I won't be seeing Les Mis because I've already seen it. And that was enough!
R58, What's with the insults? I'm a straight female and I loved Les Miz, especially since I never got to see it play live and knew some of the music and basic story line. The heavily female audience at the critics preview also really enjoyed it. Best was Hugh Jackman's transformation and the passion portrayed. Very apropos considering the sacrifice for others and for ones' beliefs evident in the recent tragedy.
The moral implications and anomie also were a strong undercurrent. Whoever thinks life sucks in America should see this film as well.
December is the worst month to release films.
[quote] Every musical movie I've seen the past decade has resulted in several walk-outs
GAY GHETTO ALERT!!!
Bette can't even get on 'Glee,' even after begging.
Tommy was on Jimmy Fallon the other night. He did his Tommy laugh.
r73 is that true???
fuck les miz its not for jonny redneck who makes uo 80% of moviegoing audience dumbass