All Threads by Date

So how did Nate Silver do?

His final prediction for the popular vote was 50.8 to 48.3. The result as of now is 50.4 to 48.1. His probability calculations corresponded with the actual outcome in all 51 Electoral College races. He said the most likely Electoral College vote count would be 332 to 206. The final tally: 332 to 206. However, his model predicted a final outcome of 313 to 225. (Not sure how that would happen or why his prediction differs from his most probable result.) Not too shabby. More anomalies in the Senate races. I guess he had less reliable data to work with. He had the probability of a Republican victory in Nebraska at 92.5%, but the Democrat won by 1 point. Montana was 62.5% likely to go Republican, but the Democrat won by almost 4 points. He had the chance of the Democrats taking the 8-seat lead they achieved, at 17%, his third most likely outcome. (He had a 5 or 6 seat lead as the most likely outcome at around 30%) His prediction was a 5-seat lead.


Thread Watcher
[Help]
log
Click here if you are using an iPhone or iPad

DataLounge get your fix of gay gossip, news and pointless bitchery.

Settings

Talking to DataLounge servers.
Please wait a moment...