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Fat Fuck Dick Morris explains it all
Dick Morris explains -- why I was wrong about the 2012 election
By Dick Morris
Published November 07, 2012
I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.
The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.
In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In ’04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In ’04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obama’s three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory.
I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.
But the more proximate cause of my error was that I did not take full account of the impact of hurricane Sandy and of Governor Chris Christie’s bipartisan march through New Jersey arm in arm with President Obama. Not to mention Christe's fawning promotion of Obama's presidential leadership.
It made all the difference.
A key element of Romney’s appeal, particularly after the first debate, was his ability to govern with Democrats in Massachusetts. Obama’s one-party strident approach, so much the opposite of what he pledged in his first national speech in 2004, had turned voters off. But by working seamlessly with an acerbic Republican Governor like Christie, Obama was able to blunt Romney’s advantage in this crucial area.
Sandy, in retrospect, stopped Romney’s post-debate momentum. She was, indeed, the October Surprise. She also stopped the swelling concern over the murders in Benghazi and let Obama get away with his coverup in which he pretended that a terrorist attack was, in fact, just a spontaneous demonstration gone awry.
Obama is the first president in modern times to win re-election by a smaller margin than that by which he was elected in the first place. McKinley, Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton all increased their re-election vote share significantly. Obama’s dropped from a 7 point margin over McCain to a 1 point margin over Romney.
That he could get re-elected despite his dismal record is a tribute to his brilliant campaign staff and the shifting demographics of America. This is not your father’s United States and the Republican tilt toward white middle aged and older voters is ghettoizing the party so that even bad economic times are not enough to sway the election.
By the time you finish with the various demographic groups the Democrats win, you almost have a majority in their corner. Count them: Blacks cast 13% of the vote and Obama won them 12-1. Latinos cast 10% and Obama carried them by 7-3. Under 30 voters cast 19% of the vote and Obama swept them by 12-7. Single white women cast 18% of the total vote and Obama won them by 12-6. There is some overlap among these groups, of course, but without allowing for any, Obama won 43-17 before the first married white woman or man over 30 cast their vote. (Lets guess that if we eliminate duplication, the Obama margin would be 35-13) Having conceded these votes, Romney would have had to win over two-thirds of the rest of the vote to win. He almost did. But not quite.
If Romney couldn’t manage this trick against Obama in the current economy, no Republican could.
But that doesn't mean we just give up. Obama barely won this election and we still have a Republican House of Representatives. We still have the ability - and more important, the responsibility - to fight to keep this great country as we know it and love it.
We must stop Obama's socialist agenda. That's our job for the next four years. We cannot allow
Damn you kids and Negroes and Latinos
- [quote]I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.
It was not an 'Obama squeaker' - he can't even be honest about that.
Obama won over 300 Electoral Votes, which is more than W. won in either of his elections, and he is also won 50% of the vote - the first Democratic to do so twice since FDR.
- the fathead Republican NYT column is the same meme
blame those non Whites because of course they voted race
the only racist voting is coming from whites who have convinced themselves that Obama not Bush destroyed the economy and the budget.
- Aka, they failed to realize there aren't enough angry straight white men to propel Romney to victory.
The Right needs to realize America has changed. We are a diverse and vibrant land and the Republican party either needs to embrace that and rebrand itself or fade to irrelevance in national politics.
- his referral to an Obama squeaker was the fact that Obama squeaked by in several swing states
- Such sour grapes. Bitter little man.
- It's baloney, R4.
Obama decisively won most of the swing states. The only one that is a squeaker is Florida.
- You mean like Florida in 2000 or Ohio in 2004, r4? As I recall Bush treated both wins as a mandate.
Obama won more statesin both elections than Bush did. It wasn't a squeaker at all.
- It'a a MANDATE!!!!
I haven't stopped smiling all day...
- "Socialist agenda" -- please.
Delusional to the end.
- Republicans still burying their head in the sand and creating their own version of reality.
- exactly R6
if you really understand swing states, Obama had to win Ohio and 3 others, or without Ohio, win 5.
it appears now he won 7 of the 9 presumptive swing states plus Florida, which was not counted as one because it wasn't considered in play.
300+ electoral college votes is not a squeaker
- GW Bush had two "squeakers". That didn't stop him from taking the wheel driving the whole country into a ditch.
Obama will be a whole lot better leader.
- Bullshit. He made his "predictions" as part of an evidence-free propagandistic onslaught by Republicans (including the disgusting George Will) to attempt to change minds by bullying dishonesty.
A disgrace not just to journalism, polling and statistics, but to editorial punditry. His salvo that he thought blacks and Hispanic would be too lazy to vote, that it was a squeaker (Check your history, ass, if you want to see what a real squeaker in terms of popular and electoral votes look like.), and that this socialist that real Americans don't want has once again taken the White House and the country by hostage.
- Unless it's an explanation on how he'll be doing the world a favor by leaving it, I wouldn't read even one syllable from that whore-toe-sucking turd
- Seriously, the idea that Obama barely won is ridiculous.
He did better than Clinton ever did in the popular vote and better than Bush ever did in the electoral college. This was a strong win, and as poll troll said a decisive win in most swing states with only Florida being a squeaker.
- Another good point he didn't make was that the youth of today are more likely to be non-white or mixed-race. This also will be a factor in reshaping the political map in the future.
- [quote]The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels.
What possible reason could he have had for making that assumption? Wishful thinking?
If by "squeaker" DICK means "BLOW-OUT"!
Spin, spin, spin.
- That should be a reply on newspaper sites and conservative blogs, R13. Good analysis.
- Obama now ahead by 2.6 million votes in the Popular Vote
50% vs. 48%
- What Morris (Rove, Scarborough, Palin, et al.) are FURIOUS about is that the Republicans cannot realistically challenge any of the states' results. Such intent is why Romney held off conceding until he absolutely had to or look even more stupid than he is.
They planned for the Big Theft to be accomplished via Florida, as in 2000, but they refused to listen to Nate Silver. Now they can all watch Florida be decided while crying in their lite beer.
- GOP needs to learn that there are gays, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Muslims and women who are all just as likely to either be well-off, *GREEDY* or both - just like any hetero white males.
We know for a fact that the majority of states with their hands out are deep red states, so there are just so many times a party can blame any or all of the groups above for all of their problems.
Drop the bigotry, drop the misogyny and drop the hyperbolic bullshit about things like "creeping Sharia," and you'll have millions willing to vote for your party.
If you're so stupid as to think your shared skin color with many of those within the 1% is all it takes to be one of them, then you'll continue down your path of irrelevance.
- One good thing about the GOP fiasco is that it may lead the party, at long last, into a constructive dialogue about immigration reform. I'd love to get this issue behind us.
- Obama is winning some of the swing states by larger margins than Bush did, or by larger margins than Obama was expected to win them.
Bush won states like New Hampshire, Iowa & New Mexico by only 1%.
Obama won those states by much larger margins:
Obama has won Nevada by 6 points.
Obama has won Iowa by 6 points.
Obama has won Wisconsin by 7 points.
Obama has won Pennsylvania by 5 points.
Obama has won New Hampshire by 5 points.
Obama has won Colorado by 4 points.
Obama has won Virginia by 3 points.
Obama has won New Mexico by 10 points.
Obama has won Michigan by 9 points.
On top of that, it looks like Obama will win Florida by 1 point, and he only lost North Carolina by 3 points.
That's damn near a landslide in many respects.
- So how many more years will these fat white men (Rush, Roger Ailes, Sean H.,Trump, etc)continue to bloviate so inaccurately before their constituency just walks away?
- Tell TOESUCK that the Obama win was NO "squeaker" he took every state he did in 2008 except two.
- R25, you forgot O' Reilly, who of course couldn't help but saying something stupid last night.
All they will do is continue to poison the well which will continue to dry up as their audiences grow smaller. Grim Reaper is coming for their audiences.
- [quote]Tell TOESUCK that the Obama win was NO "squeaker" he took every state he did in 2008 except two.
Yup. Even John King admitted that on CNN last night when he showed the Magic Map.
- [quote] and he is also won 50% of the vote - the first Democratic to do so twice since FDR.
2012 Poll Troll: You need to relinquish your name. LBJ won 61.1% of the vote in 1964.
- You want an explanation? Here you go. Dick Morris IS NEVER CORRECT with his "predictions"!
- You lack basic reading comprehension. LBJ only won one election R30.
- Aren't you dear, R30?
Re-read my post that you quoted - carefully - and see if you can find where you slipped up.
- TWICE, r30.
- If he'd been smart, he would have embraced the now notorious Friend of Dorothy with the Silver 'slippers'.
- R30 you need to relinquish your brain, as you clearly have no use of it.
- Hear Hear r13!!
I'm sick of the intellectual dishonesty of the media and the stubborn ignorance of the people eating it up.
- R30, just go to sleep already, ok hon?
Wen you awaken all refreshed, OBAMA IS STILL THE WINNER.
- Wen = When (not that R30 would have even noticed)
- Those of you who keep saying that the results will force the GOP to take a long, hard look at themselves don't know squat about Republicans.
They are obstructionists. They spent the last four years trying to block everything the president wanted to do. They made it their mission to stop Obama, no matter what.
We've had an election and the public has chosen Obama and solidified the Democratic platform in the Senate. But the faces of the Republican party have not changed. Therefore, we will not see a huge deviation from what we've seen in recent years.
Hopefully, what I hope, is that the freedom this term gives Obama will inspire him to put those mother fuckers in their place, once and for all. That is something he never really did in his first term.
Now I think Obama and Harry Reid need to put their heads together and agree to use every trick in the book to hammer through the people's agenda.
- [quote] Those of you who keep saying that the results will force the GOP to take a long, hard look at themselves don't know squat about Republicans. They are obstructionists. They spent the last four years trying to block everything the president wanted to do. They made it their mission to stop Obama, no matter what.
I agree with all of that, but I also believe that the Republicans, on an individual level, are mostly motivated by self-interest. If they realize that the America they're pandering to is being replaced by the America who re-elected Obama, they might have a change of heart. Especially when it's their own re-election at stake.
They seemed to believe that 2008 was a fluke and all they needed to do was obstruct and denegrade Obama for four years and in 2012, everything would return to how it should be.
Now they can see that they were wrong. The demographics of America have changed, and it won't be changing back.
- He should be commended for at least recognizing his own cynicism and fallibility.
One has to wonder about a country in which we are now commending people on the right for simply recognizing their own cynicism and fallibility, but they have made us sink to this.
- People keep talking about "demographics." Still I guarantee there were a lot of white men like the Pizza shop owner who gave Obama a bear hug and working class white men in OH, who also voted for Obama because they see the GOP has become the party of the super rich. The policies of the GOP serve to serve very few people and they see it.
- [quote]He should be commended for at least recognizing his own cynicism and fallibility.
Not really. He knew when he was making those earlier predictions that he was lying. None of them made any sense at all, and all of them were directly contradicted by data that he knew about. He was playing to the crowd, telling his audience what they wanted to hear, trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy about "momentum," and protecting his very-well-paying gig as a "pundit."
- The Republicans won't change much for the 2016 election. They'll just develop a way to beat the Marxist enemy--math.
They will also destroy the betrayer of the Americans, aka, rational thought.
With those two obstructions out of the way, the GOP will walk it in 2016.
- R41, I think the powerful conservative PACs, self-interest groups and businesses who fund Republican office-seekers are going to have to come to a rude awakening that they're no longer in control of the country. Only then will they require Republican politicians to change. As long as they're funding campaigns and think they are calling the shots, things are going to stay the way they are.
I think Trump thinks these groups will resist change as long as they can, and that's could be what he means by revolution.
They got the Supremes to give them free rein to throw massive amounts of money into the political process and it didn't work this time. No matter what they tried, it didn't work. I'm sure they're enraged this morning.
- [quote] A key element of Romney’s appeal, particularly after the first debate, was his ability to govern with Democrats in Massachusetts.
Dick Morris proves to be a craven liar even in defeat. Romney was notorious for not working with anyone, Republican or Democrat. He was described as aloof, disinterested, and disengaged from the political process. His office was a fortress built to keep everyone else out.
- "Especially when it's their own re-election at stake."
Very true, I don't recall the names but more than a few of the current Republican leaders are up for re-election either 2013 or 2014.
If they bring more Sharon Angles and Todd Akins or Linda Macmahons, which I have no doubt they will - they are essentially dooming themselves to oblivion.
- [quote] These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.
No shit, Sherlock.
- Can someone enlighten me as to how Dems are pushing toward sharia law when the rethugs are the party of "legitimate rape" and "god's will rape"?
I'm having a very difficult time understanding how allowing women to control their own bodies is considered sharia law?
- Now that the Southern strategy is dead, the GOP needs to come up with strategies to woo minorities. They are negative people, so here are some things I believe they will do:
1.) infiltrate black churches with the meme that abortions the white man's latest way of committing genocide against African Americans. Therefore, AAs must vote for GOP anti-abortion candidates.
2.) Many Latinos are joining fundamentalist churches. The mega church white guys and billionaires like the Kochs and Sheldon Adelson are going to start donating money to the smaller Iglesias Pentecostales in order to bring them into the larger anti-abortion, anti-science crowd.
3.) Many Latinos will remain in the Catholic church, which is already firmly anti-abortion. Plus, the GOP will use the same meme they use with AA pastors -- birth control and abortion are a plot to decrease your numbers. Fight against the baby killers who want to limit your family numbers!
4.) Most Latinos do not have union jobs. Many who came here worked long and hard for little money and made their way into the working class and middle class. They see unions as being effete people who don't want to work hard. I've seen this in latino guys I've hired as lanscapers, contractors, etc. They think Americans are lazy and overpaid. They say, "Americans have it soft; they were born here and expect a cushy job. We work hard and make our own businesses and are successful because of our own hard work." The GOP will work hard to make a good deal of Latino voters anti-union and anti-regulations-on business.
The gay issue will not work much longer for the GOP. Gay Republicans now want to get married.
- He "got egg on his face"
Well, stop being a lying fuck.
And we need to say that to every pundit who told us that RMoney was going to win.
- [quote]I’ve got egg on my face
And then I ate it.
- They've been trying all of those strategies for years, r51. None work.
The evangelical base is simply too racist and too anti-immigration to combine effectively with Hispanic and black voters. It worked (for a while) around single issue initiatives like same-sex marriage, but that's about it. Could never work for national candidates imho
A national candidate who is anti-abortion and pro-immgration is unworkable in the Repub party, and an anti-abortion, anti-immigration Repub seems unlikely to attract the Latino vote.
- [quote]I’ve got egg on my face.
That's not egg, dear, it's shit.
Considering who voted for Obama, it should be called a WOmandate. Seriously, check out the demographics. Yay, women! (And, no I am not one.)
Ok, and now fall on your sword, asshole.
- [quote] I’ve got egg on my face
Better not let Matt Drudge see it. Half the nation will go blind with horror.
- Dick Morris = The Penguin.
- You're right!
- My 76 year old die-hard Republican parents from Oklahoma voted for Obama. The tide is definitely starting to turn.
Yes, I cried.
- And Michelle Obama is the Michelle Pfeiffer Catwoman. Just kidding, scratch that one...
- He means he was only paying attention to straight white men
- Keep hearing these 'the tide is turning" comments online, what specifically do you think is changing?
- Your parents love you, R60. I'd cry for that, too.
- R63 I take it to mean that old, bigoted white farts are dying off. Look at the pictures of Romney vs. Obama election night crowds. Romney has a majority of white, older people. Obama has white, Asian, black, Hispanic, young and old. That is the future of America. Not the white bread fifties where chauvinistic white males ruled supreme.
- Thanks you R65, anyone else?
- thank you, I mean
- Maybe you should ask the people making the comments what they mean.
- One technical change that is coming, r66, was signaled in Obama's speech: Voting methods.
- R66 That the marriage equality votes went as they did is one sign. And so many of the teabaggers lost their seats is another.
- [quote] The evangelical base is simply too racist and too anti-immigration to combine effectively with Hispanic and black voters
They said the evangelicals were too anti-Catholic to combine with Catholic voters, but they've done it.
Most Catholics did NOT vote along with the fundies, R71.
- I sincerely hope that Karl Rove and The Donald and FF Morris and Rush Limppaw all dig in and stay exactly where they are in their ideology and political stance. I do not want them to change anything.
With any luck someone will stop by every month or so to dust them off. Or not.
Don't change a hair for me, not if you care for me...
- Antiabortion Catholics do. The ones who go to mass every week.
- Oh R66 another sign could be found in Florida. They had a bunch of referendums down there. One was an amendment that challenged HCR. It lost. Another would have made it harder to get an abortion. It lost. Another would have forced the state to fund religious schools and intuitions. It lost. Combine that with the loss of Allen West and the return of Allen Grayson, its nothing to sneeze at.
- Bill O'Reilly:
- R76: They just don't get it.
- People like O' Reilly and those who listen to him have created a caricature in their heads of every non-white, non-Christian, non-hetero, non-married female worthy of the Third Reich.
Old white, hetero, Christian males work! Only they are self-sufficient! Everyone else has their hands out!
Yet no explanation for why many of the states that are still solidly red get more fed. aid than they pay.
- I love how Dick Morris presumes that his analytical abilities today can explain away his complete and utter analytic failure up to now.
- My mom seems to think Toesie actually had his baby -- any of you folks hear that?
- Now we need to move onto taking away tax free status of churches that endorse or revile political candidates.
[quote]I earned political capital, and now I Intend to spend It
- Okay, he admitted how wrong he was, but his credibility is TOTALLY shredded!
- Romney won in all the states where it's legal to marry your cousin, as long as they're not the same gender.