- WISCONSIN - SENATE
Looks like Baldwin (D) has beaten Thompson (R) by about 5 points now that over 90% of the votes are in:
Baldwin - 51%
Thompson - 46%
- Poll Troll, I really appreciate all your hard work in keeping us updated on all the election goings-on. I *heart* Poll Troll.
- Thanks, R2. : )
I might post here about some of the post-election aftermath and undecided races.
The Michelle Bachmann race is so close it may have to go to a re-count!
- Tammy Baldwin carried the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin.
- Nevada Precinct Captain, are you here tonight? I haven't heard from you!
Busy tonight in NV? : ) I hope you check in tomorrow!
- I'm so proud of Tammy Baldwin. I had no doubt that Obama was going to win Wisconsin, but I really thought that Thompson was going to eeke the state out simply because of the gay issue.
Wisconsin is more progressive than I thought. I am thrilled.
- It makes me very happy to think of Bachmann having a breakdown right now.
- Amazing turnaround from 6 months ago, R4. Just back in June the people in WISCONSIN voted to keep their Republican Governor, and yet tonight they voted for Barack Obama, and for the first openly-gay Senator, Tammy Baldwin.
Appears the state isn't as conservative as the Republicans thought afterall.
- Patricia Heaton @PatriciaHeaton
At least the president can't blame the mess he's "inheriting" on anyone else but himself!
- I hope that Mrs. Allen West has some family and friends around tonight. I wouldn't want to be alone with that lunatic as he's losing his seat in the House.
- Victoria Jackson @vicjackshow
The Democrat Party voted God out and replaced Him with Romans 1. In the Good vs. Evil battle...today...Evil won.
- Have Patty Heaton's fake tits exploded in her ugly face yet?
- Is Patricia Heaton still talking?
- R6, here is the visual map for Wisconsin where you can click on President/Senate. Obama & Baldwin won almost exactly the same counties in the state and both won by a very similar margin (about 5 points each).
- [quote]Rep. Allen West loses reelection
11/07/12 01:34 AM ET
Freshman Republican Rep. Allen West (Fla.) lost to Democrat Patrick Murphy in one of the closest, nastiest races in the nation, according to MSNBC election projections.
Despite out-raising Murphy nearly 5-to-1 and launching biting attacks on the Democrat, West fell short by just over 1,000 votes, with 97 percent of Florida's 18th District reporting, according to MSNBC.
West, a Tea Party favorite, had not conceded, and it was unclear whether he would request a recount.
- I LOVE THE POLL TROLL!
And DR. LULU FONG TOO!
- Patricia Heaton is still alive?
- [quote]Fiery Dem Alan Grayson to rejoin House
11/06/12 09:34 PM ET
Former Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) beat Republican opponent Todd Long and will return to the House for his second, non-consecutive term, the Associated Press reported.
Grayson is remembered for his fiery temper — he once called some members of the GOP "right-wing lunatics" — and liberal politics. He will represent Florida's new and heavily Democratic 9th District.
"It feels great," Grayson said Tuesday night, according to the Orlando Sentinel. "I'm going to do my best when it comes to jobs, when it comes to housing, when it comes to education [and] when it comes to human needs."
Grayson was unseated in 2010 by Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.).
- Allen West goes down!! What a night!
Love ya poll trol.Thanks again!
- [quote]Florida Congressional District 18 [100% in]
Patrick Murphy (D) 50% -> 160,328
Allen West (R) 50% -> 157,872
- NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE
OBAMA - (50%) - 57,746,909
ROMNEY - (48%) - 55,886,476
- Puerto Rico votes for statehood.
- Looks like Michelle Bachmann is going to narrowly hang on in Minnesota (51-49).
At least Jim Graves gave her the scare of her life!
- Incumbent Republican Mary Bono Mack is trailing in California
- Looks like Ron Barber (D), who succeeded Gabrielle Giffords, narrowly lost tonight in Arizona.
- Sean Patrick Maloney (D) beat Nan Hayworth (R) Incumbent in NEW YORK 18
- Dan Maffei (D) beat Ann Marie Buerkle (R) Incumbent in NEW YORK 24
- Joe Garcia (D) beat David Rivera (R) Incumbent in Florida 26:
- A BIG BRAVO to 2012 Poll Troll, Lulu Fong and Nate Silver! All of their updates/analysis kept me from totally losing it this election season.
- Jim Matheson (D) (Incumbent) held off Mia Love (R) in UTAH
He was endorsed by the Huntsman family.
- R29, do you mean because when you watched the regular mainstream media they would give you the impression that Romney was going to win?
Thanks for the comment, btw. : )
- [quote] Puerto Rico votes for statehood.
Of the entire night, this is the most surprising news. I never, ever thought Puerto Rico would ever vote for statehood. This is an interesting development.
Obama said he would respect Puerto Rico's vote, which would now be sent to the US Congress for approval.
It has been over 50 years since Hawaii and Alaska were added to the Union, and it boggles my mind to think that we would need to change the flag and a whole other shitload of things by adding PR to the USA.
- re 32,
does that mean our flag has to be redone? Imagine if repubs try to block their statehood.
- Yes Poll Troll, all the pundits, anchors, pontificators seemed to all be building this Romney-will-win narrative and it was infuriating and nerve-wracking, but thankfully DL/Nate Silver brought the truth and logic. So grateful to you PT12 for that! And you're welcome!
- They might, R33, even though I think the GOP platform says they should be admitted if they so choose. It would be another probably reliable blue state. I don't see the Republicans being too happy about that.
- Well, to keep an even 50 states if we have to add Puerto Rico, then we could drop any one of the following (or maybe even all of them): Utah, Kentucky, Indiana, Wyoming, Mississippi, Alabama, etc.
- You'd think Republicans might re-evaluate their stance on issues and realize they're on the wrong side of everything. I think this election shows that maybe (hopefully) fear and rhetoric don't work.
- Can someone please start a thread with a poll:
"What or who precipitated Shitt Romney's downfall the most?"
the dog on the roof; his ill-advised trip to London; Clint Eastwood; James Carter IV; Big Bird; Binders full of women; not disclosing his tax returns; not using Ann sparingly; Mitt underestimating the American public; Sandy.
We need to gloat, and we need to discuss.
- Any sane Republican leadership would say:
(1) The writing is on the wall: Abortion is off the table, and any Republican who defends abortion restrictions, particularly after rape, is out of the party.
(2) Same-sex marriage is the future. Get on board.
(3) Tea partiers are not welcome. Joe Walsh, Allen West are history. Finance a strong Republican to replace Michelle Bachman.
INSTEAD here's how they'll reason:
(1) We need a couple more Coloreds -- oops, articulate and clean-cut Latiners and Africans to be Republican faces.
(2) Palin is popular. Maybe we can send her to school for four years?
(3) Buy more voting machines.
- R36, I would edit your list to put Arizona first because the mess in that state is only going to get worse. I live in a nearby state with more than our share of military retirees; they are one of the most reactionary, pustulent groups I've ever seen. Arizona doesn't stand a chance of getting better until those old men die off, ending their double-dipper pensions.
- Connie Mack (R) lost his Senate seat in Florida.
Mary Bono Mack (R) lost her Congressional seat in California.
Maybe this long distance husband and wife might actually have to move in and be miserable together.
- I loved that when Biden walked on stage he spread his arms like "yeah bitches its me!"
- "If we don't run Chris Christie, Romney will be the nominee and we'll lose."
- Turned out almost as I'd predicted: Prez has 303 EVs (waiting on FL) and won the popular vote (so far) by about 2-1/2%. (I'd figured 3-5%). But I was wrong about North Carolina.
Thank you Poll Troll, Dr. Lulu Fong & Nate Silver, because I gleaned this pretty much by watching y'all.
- Why Florida electoral votes still didn't go to Obama?
- Because I don't think FL has been called yet.
I also wonder whether all the provisional and affidavit ballots will be counted; and Jersey's total (they have til Fri to vote because of the storm).
- They'll go sometime today. They're saying it's too close to call and so they're rechecking it.
- If the margin in Florida is less than a full percentage point, it triggers an automatic recount. Barack Obama will once again carry the state.
- I also had Obama at 303, and I did not call North Carolina.
(But I did not call Florida for Obama either).
- [quote]Puerto Rico votes for statehood.
Yes but the referendum did not include the current status amongst the choices for political status, only a separate question "do you want the current territorial status?" to which pro-independence people also answered No.
Then, separately, you had to choose between Statehood, Independence or a new Sovereign Free State that was a mashed-up, poorly worded choice that did not mean current status. So Commonwealthers (like me) abandoned that question altogether and voted only YES on the "current status" one which lost to a margin not acceptable for serious US consideration (less than two-thirds and with the help of Nationalists). In any case, statehood is a pipe dream (and run here by a lot of Republican-minded 1% anti-gay/abortion Romney types).
More importantly, statehood party's incumbent governor lost (in a very tight race that inevitably will be recounted or at least questioned) because he fired a lot of government and forgot about the poor. Same ol'same ol'.
And Most importantly, gay-friendly female San Juan candidate for mayor beat 12-year incumbent statehood mayor. And the pro-statehood state represantative in Congress who did win (they have no vote) is thankfully a Democrat chummy with Obama.
Good news all around
- Thank you,PT! I appreciate all your hard work keeping us updated during this election cycle. YOU ROCK!
PT for POTUS in 2016! ;-)
- -- poll troll: please join the Datalounge Facebook group so we can shower you with 'real people' praise!!
- PT12/Nate Silver 2016!
- Here in the NY 24th, where projections have the Democrat Dan Maffei retaking his former seat in Congress, he has actually not declared victory because minor-league freshman Teabagger Ann Marie Buerkle has not conceded.
Maffei is leading by some 12,000 votes with more than 21,000 absentee ballots outstanding. That should hold for Maffei.
But this race was closer than it needed to be because the Green Party candidate got around 8 percent of the vote, and surely most of those votes would have helped widen the Democrat's lead had the Greens not been on the ballot.
I'm all for the Green Party expanding where they can win in local races, but in close, important races sometimes I wish they would consider staying back and helping the Dems win the tough ones.
- Thanks, R52. : )
I may try to visit there over the next few days when I catch my breath.
- [quote]Yes but the referendum did not include the current status amongst the choices for political status, only a separate question "do you want the current territorial status?" to which pro-independence people also answered No.
Puerto Ricans will never give up the trillions of dollars of SSI they collect (illegally) from the U.S. It is illegal to live outside the US and collect SSI. But Puerto Ricans do it by "moving" in with relatives in the US (NY mostly), filing for SSI, having the checks deposited into a bank they can access in PR and move back home to PR. Social Security knows this is happening because many Puerto Ricans never use their Medicaid (they can't use it in PR). All other SSI recipients use the hell out of Medicaid. It has been deemed politically incorrect to do anything about it so the study SSA regional office in NY did years ago to prove this has been shelved.
- In one of the surprises for the U.S. Senate, it's looking like Jon Tester (D) will hold onto his seat in Montana.
Most people, even Nate Silver, projected that he would lose in a close race to Rehberg (R), but with 81% of the vote in now after leading all night and into the morning, he's still ahead 49% - 45%.
- I'm going to post a few news highlight clips.
Claire McCaskill Wins Missouri Senate Race
- Tammy Baldwin Becomes First Openly Gay Senator
- R58, those two purse-mouthed women standing to McCaskill's left are reminiscent of Cinderella's stepsisters.
- Elizabeth Warren Wins Massachusetts Senate Race
- Todd Akin's Bizarre Concession Speech
- Joe Donnelly's victory speech
- Joe Donnelly is a hot daddy bear.
- GREAT JOB FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR POLL TROLL. YOU ARE THE BEST!
I got all my political news through you
- [quote]gay-friendly female San Juan candidate for mayor beat 12-year incumbent statehood mayor.
BTW, that incumbent was the one who took the embarassing public Christmas card picture that went viral, with the dissected animals from the museum.
He's got one more Christmas to pull something off, though.
- Porn actors must wear condoms law passed in Los Angeles County. It also requires producers to get permits to film sex scenes.
No doubt another industry that will soon be lost to California.
- R67 you do know that California is larger than LA County, don't you?
- Yes I do, R68. But Porn is a very big industry here, just as other industries in Southern California that have been lost here over the past 30-40 years.
- Dan Lungren lost his seat. Good!
- Limpballs said this morning:
"Conservatism didn't lose last night. It's just very difficult to beat Santa Claus."
- Whites went from 74 to 72 percent of the vote. They'll be under 70 percent in 2016.
- AP RACE CALL: Montana Sen. Jon Tester wins re-election. #Election2012 -RAS
— @AP via SocialFlow
- Brian Williams: “Donald Trump, who has driven well past the last exit to relevance and peered into something closer to irresponsible here, is tweeting tonight,”
- Democrats now have an 11-seat advantage in the Senate(this includes V.P. Biden).
- James Deen campaigned heavily against the condoms law!
- Well, it really is only a 10-seat advantage. Biden only votes in the case of a tie.
I thought Carmona had a real chance of pulling it out. Still, I'm very happy with the pick-ups.
- Obama now has almost a 2.7 million lead in the Popular Vote
- Well, Obama can pretty much get any of his Supreme Court nominees through easily with a 10 seat advantage, at least within the next 2 years. You can't underestimate the importance of that.
- If Hillary doesn't run in 2016, it's going to be a contest between Kirsten Gillibrand and Brian Schweitzer for the Democratic nominee. Both of them appeal to Democrats and Republicans.
- They need 60 votes to invoke cloture. It only takes one senator to filibuster. UNLESS, Harry Reid pushes filibuster reform in the next session.
- Several California races still too close to call
November 7, 2012 | 10:06 am
Election-night tallies in several congressional and legislative races left open the possibility the outcomes could change when provisional and remaining absentee ballots are counted.
The California secretary of state's office listed seven such battles on its website.
Among the most closely watched were the fights between Rep. Dan Lungren (R-Gold River) and Democrat Ami Bera, who had a lead Wednesday morning in the District 7 race of fewer than 200 votes.
Another was the contest between Rep. Brian P. Bilbrae (R-Carlsbad) and environmental attorney Scott Peters of San Diego. Peters had a lead of about 600 votes Wednesday morning.
Both national parties and outside groups spent heavily on those races.
- Here's the link to Zachary Quinto's Twitter feed that someone else mentioned earlier.
It has some photos & video of his involvement with Team Obama last night.
- From Fordham University's Costas Panagopoulos, director of the university's Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy. Rankings of the most accurate pollsters of 2012:
1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
5. Purple Strategies
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
27. National Journal
- R79, do you foresee an exodus of liberal justices within that period so he can replace them?
I've wondered if some of the older ones are just waiting for the right political climate before they retire.
- Now every time there's a damned hurricane, Puerto Rico will get FEMA money.
- [quote]Brian Williams: “Donald Trump, who has driven well past the last exit to relevance and peered into something closer to irresponsible here, is tweeting tonight,”
Of course, Brian Williams is now on Trump's hit list. He tweeted a response along the lines of "You wish you had my ratings".
- YouGov and Ipsos/Reuters were both internet polls. YouGov has now been pretty good two elections in a row. With cell phones becoming a bigger and bigger issue every year, it seems clear that the internet is the future of polling. I'm glad someone is figuring it out.
But let's be clear, you have to go down to number six on the list to get to someone who called cell phones. And Gallup called 50 percent cell phones and they were a laughingstock this cycle.
- I guess calling cellphones doesn't matter if you're going to intentionally skew the results anyway, or should I say "if your base methodology and assumptions are flawed?"
- Interesting about PPP, they are robopollers and everyone bitches about that - claiming they are less accurate than outfits using human callers.
PPP's the only polling organization who contacted me this year.
- What the hell was going on with Gallup?
- Gallup has been at the bottom of the pack for the last two presidential elections. Surely the media won't be highlighting their polls next time.
- Nate silver did a post about Gallup the SKEWERED it. It has never been that reliable and the fact that the media relies on it and Rasmussen so much speaks VOLUMES about the sad state of journalism today.
Just read this post.
- CNN projected that North Dakota stays Democratic for U.S. Senate with Heidi Heitkamp prevailing over Republican/Tea Party Rick Berg. She was underestimated but ran a strong statewide campaign with much appeal.
- Doesn't the NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams have higher ratings than Celebrity Apprentice?
- Yes, 10 million vs. 7 million.
- Allen West seeks recount but isn't within recount margin:
- So, referring to another thread, looks like the "top half" of the pollsters beat the "bottom half," as expected!
- I could be wrong, r81, but I thought that by custom the Senate does not filibuster Supreme Court nominations, at least in recent decades.
Which is not to say it couldn't happen, I suppose, particularly if a conservative justice's seat were to open up under Obama.
- It would be very difficult for the Repubs to successfully filibuster an extremely well qualified Supreme Court nominee, even if that person was replacing one of the conservative Justices.
- Welcome back, Alan Grayson!
- R101 Which brings up a good question: do you think all of the ones we need to get rid of are going to try to hang on at all costs for the next four years?
- [quote]Well, Obama can pretty much get any of his Supreme Court nominees through easily with a 10 seat advantage, at least within the next 2 years. You can't underestimate the importance of that.
And I'm with you R102, I was hoping Grayson would get back in, he's a STRONG liberal voice. We lost Weiner and Barney Frank and we need a really vocal, take no prisoners liberal in there to push back on conservatives.
- Aren't Warren, King & Baldwin also pretty progressive? Warren's made no bones about the fact that she's a hard-lefty (bless her!) And Bernie Sanders won in a walkover.
- r103, Scalia would be a head in a bottle if he could.
- Supreme Court Justices do often seem to plan their retirements around who is in the White House. That said, they also delay and hang onto power, hoping that the political landscape will become (even) more favorable. The saddest case is Thurgood Marshall, who stayed on long past his prime until he had no real choice but to resign and then saw his "black seat" go to Clarence Thomas. His final public appearances were horribly bitter.
- How ill is Ruth Bader Ginsburg? She's had cancer. And, of the right wing, who is oldest/in poorest health?
- R105, you are right and the more the merrier!
- I don't know about the health of the right-wing contingent, but Scalia is the oldest.
- [quote]Rankings of the most accurate pollsters of 2012:
Hopefully this will be the end of what was left of Rasmussen's credibility.
- [quote]And Bernie Sanders won in a walkover.
Yup! Sanders won 71% of Vermont last night. Vermont is actually the most liberal state in the country now.
Look at the sweep of it on this map!
- I wish I could move there.
Has Florida turned blue yet?
- I love Bernie Sanders, and Vermont for voting for him.
- Obama did almost as well as Bernie Sanders in Vermont - 67% of the vote, with all but 2 counties blue.
Vermont is Obama's best state in the entire continental 48 (Only Hawaii had a higher vote %)
Take a look!
- Florida is Obama.