- Hey Poll Troll...we were pining for you this morning and started another thread.
- I was here early this morning for a while, but I was away for a few hours. Didn't realize the other thread would fill up while I was gone.
Never expected them to be so popular. : )
- Poll Troll, can I just say thank you from a non American. These threads have been fascinating. I hope the current predictions are correct and good luck to you all tomorrow.
- RCP Average for OHIO = Obama 3.0
- NEW HAMPSHIRE - PRESIDENT [Obama +2]
Obama - 50 (+2)
Romney - 48 (-2)
Monday, November 05, 2012
President Obama has a two-point edge over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire just before Election Day.
The final Election 2012 Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters finds Obama with 50% support to Romney’s 48%. Two percent (2%) are still undecided.
This New Hampshire survey of 750 Likely Voters was conducted on November 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports.
- Posted this in the unofficial thread. Might as well post it here as well.
[bold]Romney struggles to lock down Virginia[/bold]
- More hugs and thanks for Poll Troll.
Also, PT, as your official threads are super popular and keep the conversation in one place, will you be posting official threads for election day?
- I see that Gallup tried to save what's left of their dubious reputation by showing a big swing towards Obama today. The way they halted polling for several days by giving a lame Hurricane Sandy excuse is laughable. None of the other pollsters were affected. They only stopped polling so they could adjust their numbers to fall in line with everybody else.
Gallup is toast.
- RCP National Average = Obama +0.4
- [quote]Also, PT, as your official threads are super popular and keep the conversation in one place, will you be posting official threads for election day?
Yes, I guess I can create an Election Night Thread tomorrow. The polling will be finally over (!), but I will be following the coverage of course and I may post some state results updates during the night, along with DL.
- Shelley Berkley is going to win the Senate seat in Nevada. Just wait and see....
- There's a quote going around Facebook attributed to Nate Silver yesterday:
"If you can't acknowledge that [the President is winning the race] after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."
I was disgusted to turn on the morning shows today and still hear how "neck and neck" this race is.
Thank you, PT!
- ABC/WaPost Final NATIONAL
Obama's supporters are more strongly enthusiastic than Romney’s by an 8-point margin in this poll,
- Working link that R7 was trying to post.
President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney 50 percent to 46 percent in the last of four live-interview polls tracking the presidential race in Colorado.
- Final Reuters/Ipsos NATIONAL shows Obama surge:
- Angus Reid, Wisconsin:
- Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun -
Obama 48 (+3),
Romney 48 (-)
- Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun [TIE]
Obama - 48 (+3)
Romney - 48 (-)
Romney was +3 in their poll 2 weeks ago.
11/1 - 11/4\t
- With momentum building, Democrats could do some serious damage to the Republican majority in the House tomorrow night.
- [quote]Yes, I guess I can create an Election Night Thread tomorrow.
Thank you. :)
And I know PT12 gets props, as he should do, but seriously, to PT and DrLF and all the other knowledgeable posters who've posted on these threads over the past weeks, a huge thank you. Thanks to you, I've been so much better informed than I would have been had I been simply at the mercy of the "mainstream media" and their "horse race" bullshit.
- ITA with R22. Thank you, thank you, thank you for keeping me sane during this trying election!
- I hate "me, too" posts but, well, "me, too," Poll Troll. I've been chiming in pretty regularly on these threads but to maintain the sheer volume of output that you've done is amazing, and very much appreciated.
- More info from SurveyUSA on their OHIO poll:
[quote]Election Eve, Ohio: Obama in Strongest Position Yet To Capture Buckeye State’s 18 Critical Electoral Votes
"When all is said and done, and 24 hours remain until votes are counted in Ohio, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49% to 44%, according to SurveyUSA’s 5th and final pre-election tracking poll, conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus.
In 5 tracking polls, Obama has never trailed; today’s poll is the first time Obama has polled as high as 49%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Obama is up 1 point, Romney is down 1 point. Obama had led by 3, now leads, at the wire, by 5.
Men are moving to Obama on the final weekend. 6 out of 7 Ohio voters has been personally contacted by one or both presidential campaigns."
- [quote] 6 out of 7 Ohio voters has been personally contacted by one or both presidential campaigns
We had another Obama worker stop by today. That makes 3 visits for Obama and none for Romney, unless you count someone leaving a Romney/Ryan hanger on the front doorknob.
- [quote] 6 out of 7 Ohio voters has been personally contacted by one or both presidential campaigns.
Jesus, that's an amazing statistic. I'm in an uncontested red state, and I don't even see bumper stickers.
- I was in a team meeting the other day (I work in a big big big corporation) and we were discussing some factoid and I said, "I only trust the Poll Troll," and everyone gave me the sideways confused dog look.
I think I'd better unplug for a while.
- [quote]We had another Obama worker stop by today.
Which state do you live in?
- [quote]I've been chiming in pretty regularly on these threads but to maintain the sheer volume of output that you've done is amazing, and very much appreciated.
Thanks. : )
Luckily I'm a lawyer who's working from home this year and making my own hours, otherwise I wouldn't have been able to spend several hours a day on polls.
- ABC News/Wash Post [Obama +3]
Obama - 50
Romney - 47
- [quote] Which state do you live in?
Sorry, meant to say I'm in Central Ohio. It's pretty solidly right-wing here, East of Columbus. One of our voting choices was between a Republican and a Libertarian.
- [quote]With momentum building, Democrats could do some serious damage to the Republican majority in the House tomorrow night.
God I sure wish they could.
- It will be very difficult for Democrats to win the House back all at once this year because of the large number of losses in 2010 and because of re-districting based on the 2010 Census.
But the huge change in fortunes is what happened with the U.S. Senate. When 2012 began, Mitch McConnell was favored to become Senate Majority Leader by the end of the year. Now that dream looks like it is shattered with virtually no one predicting a Republican takeover of the Senate any longer.
Harry Reid will most likely be one of the biggest winners tomorrow night, and McConnell one of the biggest losers.
- Most of you beeches are voting for the R's cuz you want to see that buff Ryan on your teevee sets!
You don't fool me ONE BIT!
- I read elsewhere that they figure about 15 possible Democratic House seats that might have been retaken in 2012 were lost because of redistricting. Something really should be done about that. I know that both sides take advantage but there's something seriously wrong where you can carve out a job guarantee.
- Obama is up to 86.3% chance
- PPP had NC tied today. Romney has lost his lead even there. Mittens is toast. Cheers!
- Romney tanking on Intrade! Obama over 70% for first time since Oct 4
- President Obama Job Approval - Ranges from 50-52% today
Gallup: Approve 52
ABC News/Wash Post: Approve 51
Rasmussen Reports: Approve 50
- Chuck Todd said that Obama campaign officials are telling him privately that they think they're ahead in every swing state, including North Carolina.
- Sen. Barbara Boxer:
FACT: MORE JOBS HAVE BEEN CREATED IN THE PAST 3 MONTHS UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA THAN IN THE ENTIRE 8 YEARS OF THE BUSH PRESIDENCY.
Spread the word.
- Reuters/Ipsos VIRGINIA: Obama 48,Romney 46 (LV)
- That's a pretty low bar though Babs. Still it's something idiot freepers won't even consider.
- Turn out is everything now!
- Reuters/Ipsos Colorado: 48 Obama, 47 Romney
Reuters/Ipsos VIRGINIA: Obama 48,Romney 46 (LV)
Reuters/Ipsos Florida: 48 Romney, 47 Obama (LV)
- The Reuters numbers look good for Obama in all the swing states except for FLORIDA.
If Obama is winning COLORADO and VIRGINIA, he won't need the 'Sunshine State'.
- [quote]Chuck Todd said that Obama campaign officials are telling him privately that they think they're ahead in every swing state, including North Carolina.
It's not a crazy sentiment. The only states that Romney is arguably leading based on the data are NC and Florida. Both of those voter turnout signs look good for Dems. I think Obama will end up narrowly losing both states but Obama has a legitimate reason to be optimistic about every swing state. That isn't bullshit.
- Obama *is* winning Colorado.
Virginia is still too close to call.
- Here in Columbus, the volume of mail and TV ads is simply astounding. We've also had two Obama volunteers at our doors, but nothing from the Republicans, at ALL. Obama has also been in Columbus a number of times, including a huge rally at the Ohio State campus a few weeks ago, while the Republicans haven't even set up a voter information booth on the oval (a huge common area in the middle of campus). The Dems have been there for well over a month. I know it's a university and all, but Romney is basically invisible here in central Columbus in a way that I don't remember McCain being 4 years ago. With 50,000 students, let's hope that those OSU buckeyes get out in good numbers.
- I've been calling North Carolina for Obama for over a week ;-)
- R50, Nate Silver gives Obama a higher chance of winning Virginia than Colorado.
But that could change.
- PENNSYLVANIA - PRESIDENT [Obama +3]
Obama - 49
Romney - 46
- I use RCP, PT12.
I feel much safer that way. ;)
They have Obama 1.5 over Romney in CoRado.
and Obama .3 over Romney in VirGidget.
First time they've showed Obama leading in Virginia, so I'm pleased.
- I love you, "North Carolina for Obama" troll. Thanks for your good work.
- Will someone post a thread for me?
It's about how the Native Americans are mad at Gwen Stefani for dressing like an Indian in her new video.
Cause you know, this IS actually gossip...
- That thread was already started several days ago, R57. Try the new search function, it (finally!) works really well.
- r57 is not only a low-information voter, he is actually a low-information person.
- If Obama wins, will there be another inauguration ceremony in D.C. like there was 4 years ago?
- OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +1]
Obama - 49
Romney - 48
- I'm in Central New York, where we have a tight House race, and I still have a landline. I've answered at least one live GOTV phone call from a campaign or party every night for about two weeks, though none tonight so far. That's not counting the unidentified numbers I don't answer, or the tons of robocalls from Repubs, many demonizing "San Francisco Liberal Nancy Pelosi" and such, or the hideous push-polls ("If you knew Big Government Democrat Dan Maffei supported killing puppies, would you be more or less likely to change your vote?").
I can only imagine what it's like to live in a swing state.
- I'm with you too "North Carolina for Obama" - I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Obama could win it either...
- Nate Silver:
[quote]FYI: Internal polls released to the public have a 6-point bias, on average, as we saw in Wisconsin recall earlier this year.
- What does that mean?
- Nate Silver will be on The Colbert Report tonight.
- R65, I think Nate is basically saying that the Romney internal polls leaked earlier today claiming he is ahead in most of the swing states are likely to be unreliable.
The media are skewing everything to make this a 'horse race' in order to get ratings.
It won't be a landslide, but it will be as comfortable a lead for Obama as he had in 2008.
- Romney's just trying to keep the popular vote close now. If he can convince (read: lie) to Republican voters to give them a reason to make the effort to vote, he will.
I'm sure the GOP strategy has changed from winning the presidency to securing enough popular votes to give Obama hell in office.
- [quote]It won't be a landslide, but it will be as comfortable a lead for Obama as he had in 2008.
In the Electoral College, yes, but probably not in the Popular Vote.
- I wonder what Paul Ryan is thinking.
- Peggy Noonan is a delusional cunt.
[quote] But to the election. Who knows what to make of the weighting of the polls and the assumptions as to who will vote? Who knows the depth and breadth of each party’s turnout efforts? Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.
[quote]I think they are and I think it’s this: a Romney win.
[quote]Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he’s caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what’s going on at the rallies is moving.
The woman is insane.
- Oregon Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation of a Republican worker suspected of ballot-tampering:
- [quoye]Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments.
And how many of them are Mormons? Call me a cynic, but I suspect the word has gone out that it's time to stand for Brother Mitt.
- What if she's right though? That's what worries me.
- Mitt's cast one hell of a long shadow over the LDS church. Many who know nothing about the church will think they are all lying liars who go around telling everyone exactly what they think they want to hear. AND would they be wrong?
- Most white people, like Peggy Noonan, have completely lost their minds this election. They live in a bubble and have no idea that there's a whole other world out there.
- I hate r75.
- Gotta love these concern trolls. Working hard for Master Karl even on the eve of the election.
- Let me just say this. To all you folks out there who flushed their Repug friends and acquaintances from your FB pages are missing a treat. There is starting to be just a hint of bitterness in their postings.
- Christie: I speak to President Obama every day; he put Bruce Springsteen on the phone. #sandyonfox
— @MyFoxNY via Facebook
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was effusive in his praise of President Barack Obama when the two leaders toured damage from Hurricane Sandy last week, turned down a request by Mitt Romney to appear with him at a rally on Sunday night in Pennsylvania, The Huffington Post has learned [...]
The Romney rally was held at a farm in Morrisville, Pa., not more than 20 minutes from Trenton, the New Jersey capital. The physical proximity of the event to New Jersey only added to questions in the Romney campaign about why Christie chose not to come.
"You can't tell me he couldn't have gone over there for a night rally," a Romney campaign source told HuffPost.
- Here's something for Peggy Noonan regarding PA:
[quote]Howard Fineman on Hardball: GOP PA source says Obama up comfortably in state
MON NOV 05, 2012 AT 04:11 PM PST
Howard Fineman, whom I generally respect despite the occasional false equivalence, told Chris Matthews on Hardball tonight that he "just got off the phone" with the "top GOP" election/pollster source in Pennsylvania and that, while Romney made up a little ground, the source said Obama is still up "3 or 4 points" and that essentially Romney has no chance in the Keystone State.
- [quote]I wonder what Paul Ryan is thinking.
"I am John Galt."
- Chuck Todd said that 50% of swing state voters have already voted.
- [quote]"You can't tell me he couldn't have gone over there for a night rally," a Romney campaign source told HuffPost.
No one's saying that, you twit.
He no longer endorses Romney for president.
- "I wonder what Paul Ryan is thinking."
Gee, Grandpa's potions and magic spells didn't work with voters the way he promised in the laboratory.
- FLORIDA - PRESIDENT (TIE)
Obama - 49
Romney - 49
11/4 - 11/5\t
- MICHIGAN - PRESIDENT [Obama +5]
Obama - 51
Romney - 46
[quote]Mitchell Michigan Poll: Obama 51 - Romney 46
On the eve of the 2012 election, President Barack Obama has a 5 percent lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Michigan, according to the latest Mitchell Poll conducted for The Michigan View.com. Obama leads 51 percent-46 percent with 2 percent voting for someone else and just 1 percent undecided. The automated telephone survey of 1305 likely voters in the November general election was conducted November 4, 2012 and has a margin of error + or - 2.71 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence.
The survey also showed that U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow has a 14 percent lead over former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra (55-41).
With a 5 percent lead going into the election, President Obama is poised to win Mitt Romney's home state of Michigan. Romney's lead is fueled by strong support from the approximately 1/3 of the voters who have cast an absentee ballot. Among those voters, Obama leads by 16 percent (57-41) while Romney leads by 1 percent (49-48) among those who are definitely voting tomorrow.
There has been a great deal of discussion about what percent of the voters that turn out tomorrow will be Democrats and Republicans.
According to our survey, the Democratic advantage in party affiliation is +7 percent (46-39). This is about half way between the 2004 voter turnout and the 2008 voter turnout. Despite the fact that he is leading, Obama won with this group of voters by 13 percent (55-42) in 2008. The Romney campaign is going to have to do a much better job than the Obama campaign in its Get Out the Vote efforts tomorrow if they are going to overcome a 5 percent margin.
Some of the key findings are as follows:
- The gender gap is back. Obama leads with women by 13 percent (55-42) while Romney leads with men by just 3 percent (50-47).
- Obama leads by a large margin with younger voters. Among 18-29 year olds the lead is 67-23 and among 30-39 year olds it is 54-45. Obama leads 51-47 with 50-59 year olds. Obama and Romney are tied with 60-69 year old voters (49-49). Romney leads with just two age groups, 40-49 year olds (53-44) and 70 and over voters (50-48).
- Both candidates have solidified their leads with their own party. Obama leads among Democrats 93-6 while Romney leads with Republicans 93-7. Among Independents, Romney leads by 4 percent (48-44)
- By race, Obama leads by 92-7 with African-Americans while Romney leads with white voters by 7 (52-45). Among all other races, they are tied at 43 percent
- Obama currently leads in labor households by 22 percent (60-38) while Romney leads in non-labor households by 4 (50-46). About one-third of the voters live in labor households and two-thirds in non-labor households.
- Obama leads by an 88-6 margin in the City of Detroit. In the Tri-County area outside of Detroit, Obama leads by just 1 percent (49-48) while the areas outside the Tri-County area Romney leads by 1 percent (49-48).
In order to win Michigan, Romney had to do better in both the Tri-County area surrounding Detroit and out-state Michigan. He also had to do better with men voters than he is currently doing. Romney is actually slightly more popular than Obama. Fifty-three percent have a favorable impression of Romney while 47 percent have an unfavorable impression of him. Fifty-two percent have a favorable impression of Obama while 48 percent have an unfavorable impression of him. Among undecided voters, 67 percent have a favorable impression of President Obama while just 39 have a favorable impression of Mitt Romney.
- Peggy Noonan is also praying to Baby Jesus (or his Mom) for Romney to win. What if it works?
- [quote]Obama currently leads in labor households by 22 percent (60-38) while Romney leads in non-labor households by 4 (50-46).
Fucking Union members, are they asleep? Haven't they seen what the Republicans have tried in Wisconsin and what their plans are for unions everywhere? Union members should be going 90/10 for Obama.
- [quote]Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.
Yes, we're all secretly planning a flash mob performance of Michael Jackson's Thriller.
- Hello polltroll ....fingers crossed for tomorrow and good night
- OMG! Can you believe it's tomorrow?
It's going to be sad in a way when it's all over. Like the day after Christmas.
- [quote] Peggy Noonan is also praying to Baby Jesus (or his Mom) for Romney to win. What if it works?
Wouldn't praying Beelzebub be more appropriate?
- Chris Christie has a fucking disaster on his hands and you want him to show up at a rally in another state??! WTF is wrong with you?!!!
I'm glad that at least Christie understands his job description and feels accountable for the well being of the people who elected him.
What a gigantic narcissistic bunch of douches!
- r93, are there any after election sales?
- R93, I bet you'll be able to buy thousands of freeper-trolls willing to post on the message board of your choice for a quarter an hour.
- [quote] To all you folks out there who flushed their Repug friends and acquaintances from your FB pages are missing a treat. There is starting to be just a hint of bitterness in their postings.
Please describe. I deleted my Facebok account a year ago in part due to not wanting to tolerate such fools, but there is nothing like a little schadenfreude!
- Florida is supposed to get the big storm tomorrow!
- Oh comments like "Well if he wins, he'll have to live knowing that half the country hates him." I wanted to point out to that one that he's been living with that the whole time he's been in office. And either way, they both have to live with that.
Comments over gun laws and how stupid Springsteen is.
Just comments that show at this point they're considering that they might lose.
- Hopefully tomorrow it will be more vocalized.
- Romney will have to go on knowing that half the country plus one hates him.
- UPI/CVOTER National - Obama 49%, Romney 48%
- I've been following this campaign for two years and it seems so odd that in just three hours election day will be finally be upon us.
Tell everyone you know to get out there. If people are waiting 7 hours to vote in Florida, they can get off their ass and spend a few minutes in line and vote for the President.
I don't know what I want to see more tomorrow -- a defeated Romney or a victorious Obama.
- Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
A few more polls to add. But Obama at 91% to win Electoral College based on today's data so far.
- Mr. Silver has upped his forecast to Obama at a 91.4% chance of winning the Electoral College tomorrow.
The 'now-cast' (91.5%) and the election day forecast are almost the same now. The day really is almost here.
- Nate has also finally flipped Florida in favor of Obama. He has a 52% chance of winning it now.
- Josh Mandel's in-laws have taken out an ad in the Cleveland Leader denouncing his stance on gay marriage. Mandel is running against Sherrod Brown in the US Senate race in OH.
[quote]Open Letter to Josh Mandel,
Candidate for U.S. Senator from Ohio
Four years ago you came into our family. We still remember the excitement surrounding your wedding, and how happy our family members were as they described it afterwards. So we were deeply saddened when you announced during your October 18th debate with Senator Sherrod Brown that you believe only some people should share this right to marry the person they love, while others should not.
Your cousins, Ellen Ratner and Cholene Espinoza, are among the many wonderful couples whose rights you do not recognize. They were married almost eight years ago in Massachusetts, at a time when it was the only state in the nation to allow same-sex marriage. Their wedding, like yours, was a beautiful and happy occasion for all of us in our family. It hurts us that you would embrace discrimination against them and countless other loving couples in Ohio and around the country.
We are equally distressed by your belief that gay men and women should not be allowed to serve openly in the military. Like you, Cholene spent many years in the armed forces. A graduate of the Air Force Academy and an accomplished pilot, she became the second woman in history to fly the U-2 reconnaissance plane. And yet, you have argued that she, like many gay and lesbian soldiers, should be forced to live a life of secrecy and lies.
Josh, as you know, our roots are deep in the Cleveland area and we have friends and family we love throughout Ohio. This family is sprawling and diverse, but it has always believed strongly in the values of equality and inclusiveness. Your discriminatory stance violates these core values of our family. Nevertheless we hope that over time, as you advance in years and wisdom, you will come to embrace the values of inclusiveness and equality as well.
Michael Ratner, Bruce Ratner, Karen Ranucci, Pamela Lipkin, Rebecca
Ratner, Elizabeth Ratner, Patrick Markee, Jacob Ratner, Ana Ratner[/quote]
- Damn, Thanksgiving might have some tension at the Mandel/Ratner house this year.
Good for them.
- Bruce Ratner, the Barclays Arena developer and NY Nets owner?
- The always reliable Daily Mail says that Romney's internal polling shows him up a point in Ohio. Ever since 2000, I get nervous about these things. I remember George Stephanopolous' face falling when he called Ohio for Bush...
- FOXNEWS.com is running a story on their website: "Ditching the Electoral College."
Looks like the fat lady is running scales.
- [quote] The always reliable Daily Mail
And this isn't parody?!
- Unconfirmed reports of a FINAL CBS/NY Times Poll to be released around midnight:
- Voting starts at midnight in New Hampshire's erotic-sounding Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, as we learned from the "West Wing."
- [quote] I don't know what I want to see more tomorrow -- a defeated Romney or a victorious Obama.
Fortunately, we're going to get both!
- That is a thoughtful and soberly worded letter, R108. The signatories are admirable and well-spoke. Let's hope the text and tenor of their letter have a lasting mental bite on the voters.
- Nate Silver's models have just been updated to:
92.2% chance of Obama win
315 Electoral votes
- And the 'now-cast' is also 92.2%. We are at election day.
- [quote]By race, Obama leads by 92-7 with African-Americans
SEVEN PERCENT of the black voters in this country are going to vote for MITTENS?
- Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
There's been a pretty clear shift toward Obama in national polls. Based on most recent data, he may lead by 2-3% in popular vote.
- Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.
- I think the President is going to win the popular vote by from 5-7%.
Break 300 electoral votes.
And take North Carolina.
- Are any other polls updating?
RCP is afraid to move their electoral map.
- Thanks to the PT and Dr Lulu for the continued and informative updates. Even though I don't post in the poll threads, I do read them and appreciate the effort and links.
- MAINE: Yes on 1
Most recent polling:
PPP: Maine's referendum to legalize gay marriage is leading for passage by a 52/45 margin, numbers virtually unchanged from 52/44 in our last survey. What we've found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way- this is likely to be a pretty close vote.
MARYLAND: Yes on 6
Most recent polling:
Goucher College: "Fifty-five percent of residents support allowing same-sex couples to marry legally in Maryland; 39 percent oppose it. When asked their opinion on the effects that legalizing same-sex marriage would have on society in general, 64 percent indicate that it would have either 'no effect,' or it would 'change society for the better.' Thirty-two percent say it will 'change society for the worse.'"
MINNESOTA: Vote NO on the marriage amendment
NOTE: All abstaining votes on the constitutional amendment will count as “no” votes. For instance, if a voter casts their vote in the Presidential election but does not vote either way on the marriage amendment, their vote will count as a no. For a constitutional amendment to pass in Minnesota, it must receive more than 50% of all ballots cast in the election.
Most recent polling:
PPP: The more interesting findings on our final Minnesota poll deal with the state's high profile amendments to ban gay marriage and require voter identification. We find both narrowly trailing. 45% of voters say they'll vote for the gay marriage ban, compared to 52% who are opposed to it. And 46% say they'll support the voter ID amendment to 51% who are opposed.
The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide. Seniors support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it, including a 36/62 margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it (79%) and Democrats oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents tip the balance by opposing it 41/55.
WASHINGTON: Approve Referendum 74
Insight on how/when results will be reported: "As few as 40% and as much as 60% of the vote is expected to be tallied and announced. Most counties will release their initial vote totals in one batch on election night. It is very unlikely that the Referendum 74 outcome will be known on election night.
Most recent polling:
Support for Referendum 74 is under 50 percent, and the measure to legalize same-sex marriage enjoys only a narrow four-point lead, according to a new statewide Elway Poll released on Wednesday.
Ref. 74 leads 49-45 percent in the poll, with a small sliver of undecideds — who often break “No” in statewide elections.
- ROMNEY LANDSLIDE: HERE ARE THE BIGGEST NAMES PREDICTING IT & HOW IT WILL HAPPEN
- This morning Morning Joe reluctantly was conceding that Obama is probably the favorite.
- VOTE for PRESIDENT OBAMA!
- Dear God, R78! What is "The Blaze" anyway?
- wow, r127's link is like a trip to an alternate universe . . . and the comments below are beyond cray-cray
- Glenn Beck's media conglomerate. It goes to show you how desperate these trolls have become when they have to link to that piece of crap.
- [quote] ROMNEY LANDSLIDE: HERE ARE THE BIGGEST NAMES PREDICTING IT & HOW IT WILL HAPPEN
Damn. I haven't seen so much delusional thinking in one place since the Claymates started throwing their panties at the stage.
- HA! I clicked on r127's link and the HUGE banner ad at the top of the page is Vote for Obama!
- R132, those people are way under medicated. Just wow, the crazy festering in those comments is scary.
- Wow, you guys aren't kidding about the level of crazy in the comments on that BLAZE site. That's some staggeringly epic levels of crazy.
- The comments on the Blaze are terrifying.
"Expect Martial Law as Obama and the commies won't give up power they've stolen."
They all seem to be cooking up these scenarios in their cracked heads whereby Obama is going to lose, but will refuse to leave office. One suggests that Alan West might have to intervene to prevent Civil War (Not. Making. This. Up.)
The Secret Service will have their work cut out for them these next four years. These white nationalists are about to *really* lose their shit.
- I just watched the Obama rally in Des Moines. Obama got emotional. I really enjoyed it. They are great.
- Thank you, Poll Troll, for your remarkable service to the Datalounge community.
Proud to be here with all of you.
- Oh, and the Josh Mandel letter from his in-laws deserves its own thread. That is awesome.
- I wonder what Thanksgiving dinner will be like at the Mandel gathering.
- HAPPY ELECTION DAY! Fired up and Ready to Go!
- Does anyone know what Obama's plans are for tomorrow? (Sorry, Dr. Fong, I'm west of you.) Is he going straight to Chicago?
- Add me to the list. Love you, Poll Troll. Thank you and Dr. Fong.
- Dixville Notch, New Hampshire has just voted and they are tied there, with Romney and Obama each getting five votes.
[quote]Dixville Notch is an unincorporated village in Dixville township of Coos County, New Hampshire, USA. The population of the township, all of whom live in the village, was 12 at the 2010 census. The village is known for being one of the first places to declare its results during United States presidential elections and the New Hampshire primary. It is located in the far north of the state, approximately 20 miles from Canada.
The village is named for the Dixville Notch mountain pass (or "notch," in White Mountains terminology) about 0.5 miles southeast of and 100 feet uphill from it, that lies between Dixville Peak and Sanguinary Mountain, and separates the Connecticut River's watershed from that of the Androscoggin. The village, situated at about 1,800 feet above sea level at the base of dramatic mountains, is the location of The Balsams Grand Resort Hotel; one of a handful of surviving New Hampshire grand hotels, it is situated on a 15,000-acre plot, accommodating golfing in the summer and skiing in the winter.
Dixville Notch is part of the Berlin, NH–VT Micropolitan Statistical Area.[/quote]
- The Dixville Notch constituency consisted of three Republicans, two Democrats, and five Independents.
Romney got two Independents, Obama got three.
- [quote]Thank you, Poll Troll, for your remarkable service to the Datalounge community.
Thank you to you for the compliment. : )
Hard to believe the polls are finally almost over for the year!
I'm ready for a rest!
- Obama will most likely win NEW HAMPSHIRE. Even Rasmussen showed Obama ahead there today in their final poll.
- [quote]Nate Silver Update -- 11:29 PM ET on Nov. 5
Chance of Winning:
Obama = 92.0%
Romney = 8.0%
Obama = 315.2
Romney = 222.8
Obama = 50.9%
Romney = 48.2%
- [quote]HA! I clicked on [R127]'s link and the HUGE banner ad at the top of the page is Vote for Obama!
That's targeted web advertising.
What appears there will vary based on cookies collected by your browser as you visit different sites.
- [quote]Rasmussen: Obama WINS with 275 Electoral Votes
MON NOV 05, 2012 AT 06:52 PM PST
As we all know, Rasmussen weights its polls in a way that is most favorable to Mitt Romney.
As such, all of the Republican Party is clinging to hope that Rasmussen is right and Romney is able to squeak out a victory. Here's the problem though: Even Rasmussen is predicting an Obama victory.
Rasmussen and/or its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research has Obama winning NH, NV, PA, OH and WI and Romney winning VA, FL, CO and IA, which would leave the final electoral count a 275-263 Obama win.
- Dixville Notch, NH has just voted:
- Thanks R153, I was just looking for that.
- R153, is that Dixville Notch, or is that Hart's Location?
- I feel like I'm in an Aaron Sorkin show.
- The numbers at R153 are actually Hart's Location, where Obama leads.
Dixville Notch is Tied at Obama-Romney, 5-5.
The tally in New Hampshire's two locations that voted this morning (Dixville Notch and Hart's Location): Obama: 28. Romney: 14
- OOPS! Hart's Location. My bad.
- Posted by a friend of mine on Facebook earlier:
"Overheard at the post office: 'No, I'm not voting for Obama because HE'S black. I'm voting for Obama because I'M black."
- Looks like Obama can start packing, time for new leadership!
- The only packing Obama is going to do is packing Romney's sorry ass off to Loserville.
- "Looks like Obama can start packing, time for new leadership!"
R160, my husband IS packing. He's "Mr. President" every night of the week.
- [quote]Looks like Obama can start packing, time for new leadership!
You poor, deluded thing.
- Er... R160?
Timothy Leary called, he said you misunderstood the dosage.
- Is it still 1 week to go?
- I'll start a new thread with just today's date on it for Election Night later this morning, R165.
- In case there are a million other posts tomorrow...thank you 2012 Poll Troll - you have been informative, you have been funny at times, you have warmed my political heart and helped me keep better abreast. We might never meet, but you've been very valuable and good to us here.
- Thank-you for your appreciation, R167. : )
I should be here tomorrow night on the Election Night Thread.
- Poll Troll, I thank you from the heart of my bottom.
- New article from Nate Silver:
[quote]Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds
- CBS News @CBSNews
[quote]First Election Day voters, in two tiny New Hampshire locations, give Obama earliest lead
- Oopsy what will Mittens and Ann do? I'm sure they had BIG PLANS for the c...ountry
- Thank you, Poll Troll and Dr. Lulu Fong and Paul - this series of threads (and fivethirtyeight) has kept an ex-pat sane when even the UK liberal press was beating the Romney wardrums.
- Investor's Business Daily/TIPP [Obama: +1.6]
Obama - 50.3
Romney - 48.7
Final Results: Nov. 5, 2012
For the first time since we started the poll, Obama garners 40% of the white vote. That's a critical threshold he had to hit in order to make a win possible.
Romney continues to hold a significant 6-point advantage with independents and a 14-point edge with investors.
Romney performs better with Conservatives than McCain did in 2008.
Catholic voters are breaking for Romney. He now holds a 17-point lead among this group, up from just 1 point in the Oct. 28 poll.
- This is late, but r32 my sister is in northern Ohio and she has the same sense of right wing majority, but she's going to school in Bum Fuck Ohio (near that city they set Glee in). She kept saying she was convinced Ohio was going to Romney and I kept telling her, You haven't read any Poll Troll posts. She had no idea what I was talking about of course so I just linked her to TPM and Nate Silver's blog.
Ohio is mostly Bumfuck-ville USA. But those large farm areas are mostly small populations.
P.S. I need new friends, all of my friends turned out to be crazy right wing republicans convinced Obama has done absolutely nothing right. I really wish Facebook had a hide political posts button.
- just unfriend them.
a few good friends is beter than 100-200 assholes.
- Woman from London on MSNBC just said The Times' US election section is its most clicked-on section online.
- Been MIA awhile , Good work troll .Obama is going to win this thing today
- oh by
- And so shall it fucking be
- I'm waiting till about six P.M when all those crazies on CNN start creaming themselves over the magic map. It should be spectacular in its display of their complete stupidity.
"Oh look I just turned it green"
- Voted in Astoria, NY. They moved our polling place to a tiny rec room in a senior center (we'd been in the gym of a community center before). Also hearing reports on the radio that New York poll workers are turning away voters who are trying to do affadavit ballots because their polling places are closed due to the storm.
Dammit! We need the NUMBERS from this blue state!
- R180 that is pure fantasy. There is no way they will call Ohio before 10 pm. I'd be shocked if they called it by midnight.
- The networks (or at least NBC/MSNBC, which I watched in '08 and '10) have taken to categorizing some races as "too early to call" vs. "too close to call," which I assume means they have solid exit-voting information but are waiting for enough of the actual returns to confirm it.
So maybe in states where Obama has been leading in the late polls, "too early to call" might be less troubling than if any are deemed "too close."
- R182 go down there!
You have a citizen's right.
- Obama at 71% on intrade.
- Is there an online link to watch returns?
- Mitt is still campaigning today.
- Mitt is campaigning in Democratic areas in PA and OH. Why? To slow down traffic and slow down the votes there?
- So, R182, are you saying that the polling workers didn't get Cuomo's fucking memo?
- [quote]that is pure fantasy. There is no way they will call Ohio before 10 pm. I'd be shocked if they called it by midnight.
Just depends on how close it is. If Obama wins it by 4-5pts it easily could be called by 10pm.
In 2008 Ohio was called around 9:20 ET I believe.
- The Post says the race is tied in NH.
- What "Post"?
- Washington Post
- Do you have the paper, R194?
I do. What page?
- The Post is just talking about the Dixville Notch 5 to 5 tie between Romney and Obama, not calling New Hampshire as an overall tie.
- Even Rasmussen has Obama up 2 in NH.
- When you say it's tied in New Hampshire, are you referring to the polls, or are you referring to the early morning results in Dixie Notch?
Currently most polls and projections (even Rasmussen) show Obama winning New Hampshire by the end of tonight.
And with the numbers in Dixie Notch and Hart's Location, Obama actually currently leads in NH 28-14 right now.
Obama & Romney tied in Dixie Notch, but Obama pulled ahead in Hart's Location.
- I do believe another poster said Obama won the Independents in that very small sample in Dixville?
- Yes, R199.
And Obama is doing better in Hart's Location than in 2008.
- Nate, you in danger girl. The pundits are waiting with sharpened knives for his predictions to fail. You can actually feel them willing Mitt on and trying to influence the public to vote Romney.
- Since I have you on the line, PT12, I just wanted to tell you how much I have appreciated your threads and posts.
You have provided a significant level of comfort and sanity during these times of media madness.
Thank you so much for your patience and effort.
- Thank-you, R202.
I'm going to go to bed and get some sleep for a few hours and will be back later today to get ready for Election Night.
Luckily I'm a lawyer who makes my own hours and works from home right now, otherwise I wouldn't have been able to spend so much time on the election this year. : )
- I wish you all good things, R203/PT12.
I'll be stuck at work until 7:00 with back-to-back clients so I will miss a lot of your coverage, but hopefully will get back here in time to go down to the wire.
Have a great day!
- Poll Troll, let me join the legion of fans. You've helped distill the information beautifully.
- Freeper wrote this:
[italic]I look at it this way. Romney will win FL, NC, VA, CO and NH - which brings him to 261. Among the larger tossup states, that leaves WI, MN, MI, PA, and OH. All are close, and Obama would have to win all 5 to keep Romney below 270.
But even if he does win all 5, Obama would need also need to take 2 out of 3 from IA, NV and OR.
And even if he does take IA nd NV, Romney can still get to 269 by taking OR and winning 1 electoral vote from Maine.
So for all this talk about Romney needing to "run the table", the way I see it, Obama has to virtually run the table among the tossups I mentioned, which admittedly could go either way. [/italic]
- The Freepers live in a whole alternative reality, bless them.
- So now we're throwing Oregon out there? And a post that begins "Romney will win FL, NC, VA, CO, and NH".
At best he is leading in NC and "maybe" FL. He's down in NH and CO. So you're premise isn't even good.
- Oregon? Maine?
Why not just add Mars to the Romney column??
- Well, what, r206? The Freeper's premise is wrong. Of the states he assumes Romney will win, only NC is likely his. The others in that group are toss-ups. Then, those he calls toss-ups are all leaning Obama or even certainly Obama.
So, Romney has to win all the toss-ups and somehow turn all the Obama-leaning states to his column.
- Trending on Twitter for the United States as of this moment:
Happy Election Day
Vote for Obama
- Oregon and Maine are about to go Republican only if the winning candidate from that party -- and it won't be with Mitt Romney in 2012 -- wins a popular-vote margin of 5, 6, or as much as 7 points.
These are base states for the Democratic Party. Ore. hasn't voted Republican since 1984 and Me. last colored red in 1988. Their margins routinely carry several points bluer than how the nation votes. In 2008, Ore. was 9 and Me. was 10 points bluer than President Obama's popular-vote margin of over 7 points in beating John McCain.
Whoever brings up that bullshit is just someone jerking himself off. (And without linking us to the pictures, it does no good.)
- Thank you, 2012 Poll Troll!
(Now get yourself some sleep!)
- That's only because #NateSilverwaswrong hasn't opened yet!!!!!!!AAAAAACCCCCKKKKKK
- Well, the Prez just called me and told me to go vote so I'm off.
I'm in Ohio so I expect the lines to be long. I will give a full report when I return. If anything interesting is happening.
- Take your cell phone, R215. Have that camera ready.
- OREGON going repug?
Sorry, I just hurt myself laughing.
- Does anyone know the latest on that "software patch" on the Machines in Ohio?
- The Romney campaign now saying internals attributed to their pollster Neil Newhouse showing Mitt up in Ohio, tied in WI, PA "are incorrect"
— @GlennThrush via web
Those leaked internal poll numbers were fake.
- Oregon is even bluer than CA. A state that passed the Death with Dignity Act isn't going to flip red just for Romney.
- So is he admitting those are goners? What's going on!!?!?!?!?!
- 3-hour long lines in Miami-Dade county to vote.
- How long are the lines for the boys and girls in Wilton Manors, Florida?
They'll be re-electing Debbie Wasserman-Schultz no doubt.
- r219 That is .. Bwwwhhhhhahahahahahah ha ha ha ha ha ha hahahahahah no shit! LOL.
- [quote]Those leaked internal poll numbers were fake.
Wow.... even for them, that's pretty blatant. That's right out of Rove's playbook.
- Obama destroying Romney in Texas!
- R218, If I understand it correctly the "patch" isn't actually on the voting machines, it's on the tabulating machines that count the votes and report them to the SOS.
These machines are even more vulnerable to hacking than the voting machines themselves because of looser certification requirements.
The change is supposed to make it easier to report the vote counts, even there was no problem with that in the last election. Also experimental patches like this are only supposed to be used in a few precincts, not half the state.
There's a hearing this morning. The tabulation machines don't actually kick in until after the polls close so there's time to switch back to the older system used in the last election.
- Linda McMahon trying to win the votes of low-information Democratic voters by telling voters to vote for her and for Obama, using her Independent Party candidateship to hide the fact that she's a Republican. See link for details. The chutzpah there is strong with that one.
- I told you so, r219.
- Angus Reid, NATIONAL
Obama leads with Independents (55%)
Obama Holds Upper Hand Over Romney in National U.S. Race
Incumbent particularly strong with younger voters and Independents—Republican remains ahead among voters aged 55 and over.
Barack Obama heads to the final stages of the United States presidential race with a three-point advantage over Mitt Romney, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,050 American likely voters, 51 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+4 since October) say they will back the incumbent head of state and Democratic Party nominee in tomorrow’s election, while 48 per cent (+1) would support the Republican Party challenger.
Obama has extended his lead among registered voters aged 18-to-34 (66% to 32%), and keeps a six-point edge among female voters (52% to 46%). The two candidates are tied among male voters and those aged 35-to-54, while Romney is more popular among voters over the age of 55 (58% to 41%).
Both candidates keep strong numbers among their respective bases, with Obama garnering 94 per cent of the vote from Democrats, and Romney getting the support of 94 per cent of Republicans. More than half of Independents (55%) say they will cast a ballot for Obama, while two-in-five (42%) will support Romney.
The biggest fluctuation is observed among third party voters, who go from six per cent
- Lol. Thanks R226.
- I live in bumfucke, Southwest Virginia, and have never had to wait longer than 10 minutes to vote in my life. This morning, I had to wait an hour, the line was so long.
I also happen to live in a predominately Black precinct and know the faces of the poll workers--they haven't changed in about six years and they are all Black. This year, for the first time, there were two sinister looking white women sitting in chairs near the poll workers, double checking each name in a large book as each person showed their ID to vote. I assumed they were some of those True The Vote assholes. I wanted to call them out, but didn't dare. I just wanted to get my vote cast, but it pissed me off just the same.
- [bold]Chrysler gives workers the day off to vote[/bold]
- What kind of Campaign makes us Fake Internal Numbers that still only have them BARELY winning?
One that is losing. While their fake numbers were laughable, they did not even feel confident enough to make the numbers more decisive. Their fakery is even timid.
- r232 you should have called them out or reported them
- r232 those True the vote asswipes are being barred for intimidation in Ohio.
DON'T LET ANYONE BE INTIMIDATED.
- r232, so you live in Galax?
- r234, they were probably thinking that people would feel more inclined to vote if it's "close" and they think their own votes make a difference. If they appeared to be winning by large numbers, people would stay home.
- Back from voting in Ohio. It was about a 20 minute wait. The gym we vote in was PACKED and they had set up extra booths and tables for everyone.
A very steady stream of voters at 11am.
Interesting to note - there was NO ONE from the Rmoney campaign in "the gauntlet" - only democrats. I found this not only odd but amusing. Maybe they figure this particular area of Ohio is red so they don't need to bother -?
Sorry, r216, I don't have a cell phone so no pix. It is a gorgeous day here (a little cool but very sunny) so I expect the turnout to be very good.
- Where have a heard that before....
....oh, I've been saying it all along.
- Just to add to all the rest, POLL TROLL, Thanks for your concern, your interest and your work - you have been a great "sanity assist" during these last months; you always have a safe house here in Kansas with me (I know, it is a scary thought, but I continue to work and hope for a return to the days when 2 of our 4 US Reps were Dems and we had a Dem governor - it just shows how rapidly things can be destroyed without constant vigilance). Will watch for your new thread. Thanks again! Best always!
- Thank you, Poll Troll.
As others have said you've been a great comfort.
Just a request though, when you wake up, can we have a new ELECTION DAY RESULTS thread?
- Another thanks PT
- IS THIS THE website to go to for the results as they come ??
- Reports from election observers and voters: Broken scanners and too many provisionals
by Free Press staff
November 6, 2012
The Free Press is receiving multiple reports of ES&S optical scan machines in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland). One specific polling site where this is happening is the University Heights Library.
Also, at the Driving Park polling site in Columbus' inner city, many voters' names are not showing up on the voting list and they are being forced to vote provisionally. The lines for provisional voters are longer than the ones for regular voting.
- Obama Ohio poll observers' suppression protocol explained:
- MSNBC: Pennsylvania voting machine that turned an Obama vote into a Romney vote taken offline
- Biden is going to OH.
- When and where, r248? If he's close, I just might have to go see him.
- I think he's already here, r249.
- Cleveland. He seems to be there now.
- Thanks, r251. Can't make it, dammit.
Maybe he'll stay here and travel around the state and I can catch him then.
- Fox News is reporting that team Obama wants their supporters to keep "calm".
WTF does that mean? Good or bad?
- They're still pushing that whole "revenge" thing, R253. It's bullshit and you can ignore it.
- They don't want us having a spontaneous Mardi Gras celebration all across the nation for O.
- Guardian UK offers: Your printout guide to the 2012 US election
- Take the Obama campaign's advice and calm down, R253.
Here's what the campaign is saying: details about exit polling may leak out early. The problem with exit polling this year is that the Obama campaign has been very active in getting people to vote before election day. Their votes are, in effect, 'pre-loaded.' But these voters would not be sampled in exit polling, which is done only of people voting today.
So, traditional exit polling will most likely under-sample Obama voters.
- Thanks, r257.
Chuck Todd was saying that if the white turnout is above 74%, Romney will most likely win.
- There are so many reports of dirty voting tricks and suppression happening today, all designed to give Romney the win.
- Agreed, r259, but as opposed to 2004, the Democrats are in the White House and ready for it. They won't let them get away with it. If there's any possibility of software improprieties in Ohio, they'll blow the lid off it. Hopefully, we won't need Ohio and the whole thing with explode in their faces. That would be lovely.
- [quote]Hopefully, we won't need Ohio and the whole thing with explode in their faces. That would be lovely.
Yes! That's what I've been thinking/hoping too R260.
- That's interesting, r256. Much better visuals than I've seen on US sites.
- were is the troll
- I think he's sleeping. He was up late. Or she.
- Do you think the campaigns at this point have a good idea how it's going?
- Yes, r265.
Fox News just said that Paul Ryan is going to VA, today.
- So Virgina is actually starting to look light blue!
- Let's assume for a minute Ohio could drag on.
What do we need to KNOW Obama's going to take it? Even regardless of Ohio?
- I would love for Obama to win Virginia or North Carolina along with two of Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (assuming Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are locks).
Then Florida and Ohio go can suck a bag of dicks.
If Obama fails to carry Virginia or North Carolina, we're not going to have a result tonight.
And then there's the scenario where Obama loses (or the vote counts cannot be finalized in) Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio..but takes New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada for 272 and the win.
Obama would likely lose the popular vote and freeper heads will pop off shoulders across the land.
- Spent the day at a phone bank calling most Ohio (a few PA) voters for Obama. Observations: no one under 30 answers their own phones (we were told not to leave a message); EVERYONE over 70 answers their own phone. Anecdotally, there are a fair amount of seniors who don't like Romney.
- Should we trust the exit polling that's about to come out?
- [quote]I think he's sleeping. He was up late. Or she.
I have arrived!
And it's 'he'. : )
- I'm hearing there is record turnout in VA, and Cuyahoga County in Ohio.
Chuck Todd just turned up on Hardball, looking like he wants to shoot himself in the face.
- From Markos Moulitsas, Daily Kos:
[quote]Tight LV voter screens in polls assumed lower Dem turnout. We're not seeing that , suggesting final results will look like RV results
- Chuck Todd's just DYING for a Romney win. Chris Matthews was saying things would be good for Obama if he wins Virginia, but Todd tried to shoot that idea down and say that Mittens still has plenty of paths to win.
- Chuck Todd is seriously fucking ugly and he isn't that bright. He really has no business being on TV and I can't believe he will be on MSNBC all night tonight.
- Chuck Todd is REALLY fucking annoying me. I think he'll be on NBC and I won't have to see him much tonight.
Wolf Blitzer just said that the Romney team has only written a victory speech.
- [quote]Wolf Blitzer just said that the Romney team has only written a victory speech.
In Mary Matalin & James Carville's book about '92, she wrote about how Bush campaign made up stories about how good turn out was for them.
- [quote]Wolf Blitzer just said that the Romney team has only written a victory speech.
Victory speeches lay out the course the candidate will take over the next months.
Concessions speeches confirm that the losing candidate has called the winner (first line...always), thank voters and then urges them to support the victor.
It's all over in a minute.
So Wolf maybe right.
But Romney won't be president.
- I think Chuck Todd has a personality disorder.
- WASHINGTON (AP) — Preliminary results of an exit poll conducted for The Associated Press show that the presidential election hinges once again on the economy.
The survey of voters as they leave polling places Tuesday shows 6 in 10 voters say the economy is the top issue facing the nation, with unemployment and rising prices hitting voters hard.
About 4 in 10 say they think the nation’s economy is on the mend, but more say that things are getting worse or are bad and stagnating.
About half of voters say the previous president, George W. Bush, shoulders more of the blame for economic challenges than President Barack Obama.
Just a quarter of those surveyed in the exit poll say they are better off than four years ago.
- Yeah, the victory speech tidbit is not news. No campaign would ever publicly state to the news media that they'd written a concession speech before polls had even closed - THAT's just plain incompetent, and it hurts morale within the campaign - it's a slap in the face to all the volunteers, workers and donors who've poured out everything to make it to the finish line.
A concession speech can easily be written once polls are closed and results start coming in. I did think John McCain's concession speech in 2008 was nicely done - he had a great line about serving his country being the highest calling he'd ever had, and his campaign also prevented Palin from speaking and souring the tone of everything.
- R281, so I guess that exit poll is from Washington state? Not much insight into how people think of things in an actual battleground state. I do think it's interesting that there's a mixture of views on the economy and who's responsible - that people can acknowledge that they're not as well off as they were four years ago, while not placing the blame on the current President.
- The exit poll numbers are actually good news.
"The country's on the right track" numbers are up about 20% from 2008.
- The majority of exit polls also request no appeal for Obamacare.
- Sorry, meant no REPEAL.
- [quote]Chuck Todd's just DYING for a Romney win. Chris Matthews was saying things would be good for Obama if he wins Virginia, but Todd tried to shoot that idea down and say that Mittens still has plenty of paths to win.
Translation: Chuck Todd is not giving me what I want to hear, so he's a Freeper.
Sorry, hon, Chuck Todd is a master at this. He's telling it like it is. Deal with it. He's not going to say that it's in the bag if it's not.
- "Sorry, hon, Chuck Todd is a master at this."
Chuck Todd wipes back to front, on a good day. Nate Silver and his ilk are where it's at these days.
- I know this isn't poll related, but I had to look up the transcript of McCain's concession speech in 2008. Whatever little I thought of him or his campaign, his concession speech was truly classy, humane, and humble, and a great credit to him.
I honestly don't know what to expect from Romney's (probable) concession. Some associates say he's a truly "nice" man who simply lacks any sort of integrity and will say or pretend anything to get the deal done. Whatever his faults, at least John McCain saw himself as a servant to the country - I can't imagine Romney as having the humility to see himself as "serving" anyone.
- [quote]Sam Stein -- some rare, non spin on twitter --> RT @jmartpolitico: A senior GOPer w close ties to Romneyland emails a single word: "worried."
- Interesting read.
- Todd is spinning a nail biting narrative.
- I wonder if this is true:
David Shuster @DavidShuster
Conservative Drudge report showing Obama leading exit polls in PA, MI, NH, NV, and OH. If that holds, Romney is toast. #current2012
- You never know with Drudge, R293, but you're right that it's over for Romney if those are the real numbers.
Remember that exit polls are sometimes off though.
Btw, I should start my Election Night thread. . .
- Most interesting part of R291's link to me (piece is a perspective from a self-serving conservative), is his treatment of the "silent majority" argument, which is what most conservative pundits are running with - that pollsters have missed a groundspring of angry white voters who will overwhelm the polls today and give Romney a landslide:
"Too much faith in a conservative wave.
Conservatives like to think that there is a "silent majority" out there that the media/pollsters will suddenly show up on Election Day. There is very little evidence that this actually exists. The 2010 election deludes conservatives because they don't seem to realize that in presidential elections the turnout is much higher, especially in the states that actually matter. Republicans only have "tides" in low turnout elections. When the "low info" voters get to the polls, Democrats simply can't be blown out in the key states. I never understood why conservative commentators couldn't understand that Obama's turnout would be just fine in the states which would actually decide the election."
- [quote]Remember that exit polls are sometimes off though.
True PT12, I'm going to wait for more reliable info.
- Poll Troll, post a link when you do. TIA.
- But Exit Polls were a disaster in 2004 weren't they? I seem to have blocked it out under the weight of four more years of Bush-induced trauma.
- I hate going to Drudge but his headline is indeed:
EXIT POLL BOOM FOR O
R: NC, FL
O: OH, NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSS UP: VA, CO, IA
- On the exit polls - those are just for Election Day voters, correct? It's already well-established that Obama has a lead among early voters, and that Romney needs to overcome that lead significantly on Election Day itself to win.
If polls of Election Day voters show Obama up (or even tied), then that's really good news for him, unless the polls are somehow trying to take early voting into account.
- OK WE HAVE MOVED
TO THE 2012 POLL TROLL ELECTION NIGHT THREAD
- Regarding this quote from the end of the article linked by r291
[quote] Mitt Romney is a great man who America would have been proud to have as their president. Instead, as it turns out, perhaps we as a country didn't really deserve him.
I can agree that America doesn't deserve a president like Mitt. Lol.
- DONT TRUST EXIST POLLS , even if its favorable for us
- I'm so nervous for the election. Turned off the TV this past week and no news because I couldn't handle the stress. But Tueday I will vote and turn on Rachel Maddow.
- Um, r304 the election happened on the 6th. Speaking of, why am I still seeing ads from American Crossroads?