Alan Arkin, Argo
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
William H. Macy, The Sessions
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
In the end, Philip Seymour Hoffman will win.
John Goodman may sneak in for Argo. He has been doing good work in small parts for a long time and is beloved in the industry.
Hoffman won't win, he got an Oscar fairly recently so he's not getting another any time soon.
It will be Goodman or Macy - both are well liked and have been doing good work for years.
"Hoffman won't win, he got an Oscar fairly recently so he's not getting another any time soon."
People often win repeat Oscars. Tom Hanks won two back-to-back in the 90s.
Agree with John Goodman. He's great in the film.
Matthew McConaughey? LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
Mm will get nominated for that role he is losing the weight for right now
R3, people *rarely* win more than one Oscar in an entire career.
Most people who do manage to win more than once win the second one quite a few years later.
Hanks winning two Best Actor Oscars so close together was a freak event.
Hoffman may be the most talented, he may deserve it but he will probably not win again this year.
[quote][R3], people *rarely* win more than one Oscar in an entire career.
Wow, you don't know what you're talking about at all, do you? The following have all won at least two Academy Awards for acting. There are probably others I've forgotten as well.
1. Gary Cooper
2. Marlon Brando
3. Daniel Day-Lewis
4. Tom Hanks
5. Dustin Hoffman
6. Fredric March
7. Sean Penn
8. Spencer Tracy
9. Robert De Niro
10. Gene Hackman
11. Jack Lemmon
12. Kevin Spacey
13. Denzel Washington
14. Michael Caine
15. Melvyn Douglas
16. Anthony Quinn
17. Jason Robards
18. Peter Ustinov
19. Wallace Beery
20. Katharine Hepburn (4 wins)
21. Bette Davis
22. Olivia de Havilland
23. Sally Field
24. Jane Fonda
25. Jodie Foster
26. Glenda Jackson
27. Vivien Leigh
28. Luise Rainer
29. Hilary Swank
30. Elizabeth Taylor
31. Helen Hayes
32. Jessica Lange
33. Maggie Smith
34. Meryl Streep (3 wins)
35. Dianne Wiest
36. Shelley Winters
37. Ingrid Bergman (3 wins)
"Hanks winning two Best Actor Oscars so close together was a freak event."
No, it wasn't.
My mistake. Replace "Wallace Beery" at r7 with "Walter Brennan." Beery only won once, but Brennan won twice.
Sorry girls, I stand by my assessment.
It is rare for any actor to win an Oscar.
It is even more rare for any actor to win more than one.
It is especially rare for any actor to win more than one close to the time he won the first one.
Apparently this upsets you but it's not my fucking fault, I'm not even an Academy voter.
[quote]It is especially rare for any actor to win more than one close to the time he won the first one.
And yet more than half (i.e. a full twenty) of the above-named 36 multiple acting winners indeed did win twice in seven years, which would be the time between when Hoffman won for "Capote" and if he wins again this year for "The Master": Penn, Tracy, De Niro, Spacey, Quinn, Robards, Ustinov, Brennan, Hepburn, Davis, De Havilland, Fonda, Foster, Jackson, Rainer, Swank, Taylor, Smith, Streep, Winters.
Now, it may well be that Hoffman does not win for "The Master." But if so, it will not be because of the ridiculous (and easily disproved) reason you provide.
McConnaughey no, Goodman yes.
Rhe Master? It pretty much was DOA. Does it even have a chance of recouping?
When actors are as good and respected as PSH it isn't odd or unlikely for them to win multiple times. He could easily win for The Master and would deserve it. Its odd and rare for winners like Halle Scary, Ghoulia Roberts, Brody, Begnini, GOOP, louise fletcher, the deaf woman, etc where lightning struck once.
So weird that Swank is on that list at R7 - she's like an exception to the exception.
R7. Actually Brennan won three times.
Find some new actors. Boring list.
OP, why supporting actor?
There was some discussion (on Deadline, maybe, can't remember) that the campaign would put PSH in the lead category, with Phoenix as supporting.
Most people also clearly favoured Phoenix, didn't really like the movie otherwise.
I home somebody pops out of an indie film...this list is dull all old guys who already have awards.
Any possible low profile films coming up?
Forget Hoffman, "The Master" is out o fteh running...
Goodman and Arkin a lock as well as Russell Crowe for "Les Miserable"
Hoffman in Before The Devil Knows Your Dead is one of the greatest film performances I've seen in many a year. He was scary good in that. He's a hell of an actor.
Have no idea how the films are but....maybe Hal Holbrook for Promised Land or Michael Gambon for Quartet coould sneak in
[quote]So weird that Swank is on that list at [R7] - she's like an exception to the exception.
Oh Horsehit. For "Boys Don't Cry" Hilary Swank won The Golden Globe, Independent Spirit Award, Los Angeles Film Critics, National Board of Review, New York Film Critics, Toronto Film Critics
and for "Million Dollar Baby" The Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, Boston Society of Film Critics, Broadcast Film Critics Association, Florida Film Critics and National Society of Film Critics Awards among many.
Her Oscars are not flukes. They are for Best Performance, not Lifetime Achievement. No matter what she does with her career, she earned her Academy Awards with great performances for theses films.
If trash like Hilary Swank can win 2 Best Actress Oscars, then you can't begrudge Hoffman a second Oscar in 7 years.
[quote]29. Hilary Swank
You've misspelled this one. It should be A-n-n-e-t-t-e B-e-n-i-n-g.
Hoffman's performance is not a supporting performance. He is best actor category, as is Phoenix. They will cancel each other out like MacLaine and Bancroft in The Turning Point, or Davis and Crawford in WHTBJ.
r26 - and like MacLaine and Winger in 'Terms of Endearment'?
Win will be between DiCaprio and TLJ.
r26...Hoffman is being submitted and advertised for Supporting---granted you can't dictate your category for Oscars but you can for SAG awards and Oscars usually follow the Sag category placement.
Unfortunately, R26, your perfectly valid logic is not relevant for two decades now. The last time two same gender performers were nominated as leads for the same film was when Sarandon and Davis were for Thelma and Louise 21 years ago. Since then, the evaluation of the Awards industry into this monstrous, independent sub culture, created strict new rules, many of them have nothing to do with the actual content of the films or the performances which are supposedly being celebrated. It’s all about PR game which is being calculated and manipulated so maximize the commercial effect of the awards. (And yes, I know, it was always a cynical system, but since the celebrity oriented media and the blogosphere took over it arrived at a totally different level).
And one of the new unbreakable rules is that a film cannot have more than one lead of each gender. When in doubt, there are guidelines to establish which performer is lead and which is support. It could be about the status of the actors: veteran, established star Washington won as lead while Ethan Hawks was nominated in support although his role as the protagonist in Training Day was much bigger. Sometimes it all about spreading the wealth: Foxx was bound to be nominated as lead for Ray, so he was promoted as support for his lead turn in Collateral that same year while Cruise was promoted as lead for his much smaller role (the previous rule can be applied her too). And off course, social and cultural prejudices are used too. Only last year it was widely assumed Viola Davis should have been competing as supporting since she was playing a black maid, and it was due to Davis’ insistence she wasn’t (she probably should – she would have won). And then there’s Datalounge’s pet case: Ledger was lead for being a top, Gyllenhaal support for being the bottom. Had T&L been released nowadays Sarandon would be promoted as lead, Davis as supporting and both would probably win.
The Master is tricky. Hoffman is somehow probably a bigger name, and he is playing a socially higher ranked character, but he is known (and often nominated accordingly in support) for being a “character actor”, and Phoenix is an established leading name and he does play the clear protagonist. So I’d second R29 and say that Hoffman will be placed in the supporting category. In a perfect world both would be considered as leads (and be nominated).
R23, the point is almost everyone else on the two-Oscar list has other standout performances. Swank has two and won for both. She definitely deserved the first, but lightning striking twice is by definition a fluke. If she comes back and gives a few more great performances I'll be wrong.
I'm starting to sense number three for Robert DeNiro for "Silver Linings". The movie is going to be a crowd pleaser and word of mouth hit. It was Harvey Weinstein behind it, which is always a plus. The same logic rewarding Streep last year will apply - a career capper and its been 30 years since he last won and many consider him to be the greatest living screen actor. Yeah, he's been in a lot of stinkers, but so have Streep and Nicholson.
Wasn't Kate Winslet supporting for The Reader with SAG, but lead for the Oscars?
It will be hard for DiCaprio to get too much momentum after missing SAG (where I expect Jones to win). DiCaprio could win the Globe, but I think whoever wins the BAFTA will end up winning the Oscar.
Seems to me that they'd want to go with Tommy Lee Jones. He's only won once before, and it's for a much more substantial and important film than the one Hoffman is in.
The anti-slavery activist that Jones plays is the sort of role that wins Oscars.
Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson both deserve nominations for DJANGO over Leo. Jackson, in particular, is astonishing.
How bizarre would it be if it came down to Tommy Lee Jones for playing an honorable anti-slavery firebrand and Jackson for essentially playing an Uncle Tom?
What is this great big fuss over Alan Arkin in "Argo"? I don't get it - it's one of those parts that any one of a thousand actors could've played just as easily...nothin' special there, yet everyone seems content with him being considered a shoo-in. Didn't he already get his make-up oscar for "Little Miss Sunshine"...WTF?
I'd like to see Ezra Miller nominated for The Perks Of Being A Wallflower, but that's a long shot.
Can someone start a Razzie predication thread? I have a couple of picks for Worst Supporting Actor.
Agree! Where the heck is Ezra Miller's name in all the awards hoopla?