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Nate Silver acknowledges he could be wrong

He recommends the linked critique to explain possible flaws in his model. Of course, he disputes the analysis. Silver takes state polls at face value. This could be a problem: In a nutshell 1) Polls historically have underestimated Republican performance; 2) Polls historically have overestimated incumbent support; and 3) state polls indicate a turnout advantage for Democrats even larger than the one they enjoyed in 2008 and there are several reasons why this is unlikely to materialize. The author believes Obama is still the favorite, but the odds are 60/40, not the 83/17 Silver calculates.


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