POLL THREAD ~ 1 Week to Go ~ OCTOBER 29 - NOVEMBER 6 ~ PART 2

VIRGINIA - PRESIDENT [Obama +5] Reuters/Ipsos Obama - 49 Romney - 44 ----- These are findings from Ipsos polling conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2012. A sample of 963 American Registered Voters (RVs) and 792 Likely Voters (LVs), age 18 and over in Virginia was interviewed online. Data below has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for RVs and 4.0 for LVs.

http%3A//www.scribd.com/doc/111855196/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-State-Polling-11-01-12


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• +5 in VA is good news, though the sample size is a tad small.

• The sample size is actually bigger than that of many state polls, R1.

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• Newsmax/Zogby [Tie] Obama - 47 Romney - 47 ------- NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll It's Tied Nationwide: Obama 47%-Romney 47% Minor Candidates Hurt Romney November 01, 2012 The new three-day rolling average of 1,030 U.S. likely voters, conducted online from Monday (October 29) through Wednesday (October 31), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Pollster John Zogby: "Romney has gone from leading to a tie. Perhaps it is a combination of an improvement in Obama's job approval during the storm crisis and the great sorting out that normally happens late in a campaign. Obama continues to poll strong among his base -- Hispanics (64%-33%), African Americans (88%-8%), young voters (59%-34%), union households (59%-34%), and the Creative Class (50%-46%). Meanwhile Romney is gaining with evangelicals (70%-27%) and NASCAR fans (52%-41%). Neither candidate is where he needs to be with key groups: Obama still needs more support among younger voters (especially women) and Romney needs more white voters support (he leads 56%-38%). With minor party candidates in the race, Obama leads 47% to Romney's 46%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson receiving 2%, Green Jill Stein and Constitution Virgil Goode at 1% each. Among early voters, the race is very close with Obama polling 49% to Romney's 47%. Romney has a smaller lead now among "Definite" voters (49%-47%), and Obama leads among those "Very Likely" to vote (51%-38%). Key question here: how likely is "very likely". If that group votes, Obama wins; if they don't, he doesn't." The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 36.6% Democrats, 34.6% Republicans and 28.8% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+.

  http://www.jzanalytics.com/

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• [quote]Nate Silver Update: 11:40 PM ET on Nov. 1 Chance of Winning Obama = 80.9% Romney = 19.1% ----- Electoral Vote Obama = 303.4 Romney = 234.6 ----- Popular Vote Obama = 50.5% Romney = 48.4%

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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• I love it! great numbers. I just hope the dirty tricks ALREADY taking place in Ohio by the GOP won't screw everything up for Obama.

• Just saw the ad Obama is running where Colin Powell endorses him. With Powell, Cristi and now Bloomberg giving the nod to Obama and Romney now in self-imposed exile from the media, I am confident about what the result of this election will be. P.S. The video of President Obama comforting that woman at the marina is much more significant than the photo. This is why Obama is ahead in the "tossup" states. video at link

  http://americablog.com/2012/11/touching-video-obama-comforting-marina-owner-new-jersey.html

• Has Christie given the nod to Obama?

• No, not directly r7, but he has been publicly praising Obama while also publicly displaying ambivalence or even disgust with Romney.

• Public Policy Polling [Obama +1] Obama - 49 Romney - 48 ---- [quote]Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49-48 based on our national tracking Tuesday-Thursday night. Had been down 1 before

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-up-1-nationally.html

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• November 01, 2012 [quote]Obama up 1 nationally PPP's national tracking finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-48 based on interviews conducted between Tuesday and Thursday night. Obama and Romney's numbers have flipped since PPP's last release, which was based on interviews conducted between Friday and Sunday of last week. There are indications within the poll of at least a nominal bounce for Obama based on his leadership during the hurricane this week. His approval rating is up a net 3 points from what it was a week ago, from 46/51 to 48/50. Obama's also reduced Romney's lead with independents from 8 points at 50-42 last weekend to now just 3 points at 48-45. Given the national Democratic identification advantage if Obama can keep things that competitive with independents he's likely to win the popular vote. Romney is winning the white vote 59/38, but Obama is making up for that with a 91/5 lead with African Americans and a 69/29 one with Hispanics. Young voters are going to be critical for Obama. His 58/38 advantage with them allows him to lead overall despite trailing by small margins within every other age group. He needs a strong turnout from young people to push him over the top. We find a smaller gender gap than usual with Obama up 50/47 among women and Romney up 50/47 with men. We've been running this poll for almost three weeks now and neither candidate has ever led by more than 2 points in our three day rolling average. It's going right down to the wire.

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-up-1-nationally.html

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• FRIDAY NOVEMBER 2 ----------------- INDIANA - SENATE [Donnelly +11] Howey-DePauw Donnelly (D) - 47 Mourdock (R) - 36 [quote]Howey-DePauw Poll: Joe Donnelly has double-digit lead over Richard Mourdock 11/02/2012 INDIANAPOLIS - The latest Howey-DePauw poll released early Friday showed Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Joe Donnelly with a double-digit lead over GOP challenger Richard Mourdock, widening the gap in the race. RTV6 Political Insider Abdul Hakim Shabazz said Donnelly has 47 points while Mourdock has 36 points, just four days out from the general election. The poll is the first independent survey to be publically released since Mourdock's controversial statements on rape and abortion.

  http://www.theindychannel.com/news/local-news/howey-depauw-poll-joe-donnelly-has-double-digit-lead-over-richard-mourdock

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• Mourdock's done.

• Mitt Romney's breasts are really collapsing in Virginia, no?

• I'm surprised how quickly Mourdock's support has collapsed. I thought he might hang on in Indiana because it is a red state and there are a lot of people there who agree with his views. Nate Silver still shows Mourdock winning the race, but with the new polling coming out this morning, what was Leaning Mourdock as of last night will probably not be doing so for much longer.

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• Even Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Indiana now says Mourdock is finished: [quote]“It’s all over but the crying. Joe Donnelly is poised to succeed Republican Sen. Richard Lugar in the U.S. Senate,” Matthews wrote in Friday’s edition of Howey Politics Indiana.

  http://www.courierpress.com/news/2012/nov/02/mourdock-down-double-digits-independent-poll/

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• Voter suppression in Northern Virginia: AKA: Why do Republicans hate America?

  http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/va-politics/fairfax-democrats-sue-over-polling-place-observers/2012/11/01/2fb64b20-2451-11e2-9313-3c7f59038d93_story.html

• If Mourdock really does lose that race--here's hoping!-- will it help convince the far right Teabag goons that running the most conservative candidate is not the smartest move in some places, especially for statewide office? A more moderate candidate (like Lugar himself was) would easily hold that seat for the GOP; now the Dems are poised for an unexpected pickup.

• New England College: NEW HAMPSHIRE Obama 49.5 Romney 2.4 Other 2.4 Undecided 3.7 Published: November 2, 2012 In the race for President, among 1017 respondents, 49.5% said they would vote for President Barack Obama, 44.4% said they would vote for Mitt Romney, 2.4% indicated they would vote for another candidate and 3.7% said they were not sure. The margin of error is 3.7%. The President gained slightly from last week’s NEC poll and Mr. Romney dropped a point, as the number of undecided voters begins to decline. “The gender gap exists with President Obama maintaining a strong lead among women; while men have a more competitive split between the two candidates,” explains Dr. Ben Tafoya, director of the Polling Center in NEC’s Center for Civic Engagement. “If Governor Romney is going to close the gap on the President he will need to perform significantly better among women.” The President has strong support from Democrats leads among Independents; while Governor Romney has strong support among Republicans. Mr. Obama holds 95% percent support among Democrats; Mr. Romney holds 89% support among Republicans. In the race for Independent voters in New Hampshire, the President has a 49%-39% edg

  http://www.nec.edu/news/new-poll-gives-president-obama-some-daylight-in-new-hampshire

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• According to Drudge (ick), Rasmussen will show the race tied at 48 percent today. Rumored Rasmussen today: Obama 48 Romney 48

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• INDIANA - PRESIDENT [Romney +10] Howey-DePauw Romney - 51 Obama - 41\t --- Romney dropped 2 points in Indiana from the previous poll where he was (+12). Won't change the outcome, but perhaps he was affected by the Mourdock connection.

  http://www.indystar.com/article/20121102/NEWS0502/121102003/Donnelly-builds-lead-over-Mourdock-Senate-race

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• Lulu, you got me really excited. 49.5 to 2.4? Then I looked at the link and saw it was 49.5 to 44.4. Still good news across the board including that right-wing Rasmussen might show a tie.

• [quote]If Mourdock really does lose that race--here's hoping!-- will it help convince the far right Teabag goons that running the most conservative candidate is not the smartest move in some places, especially for statewide office? No, unfortunately, it won't. Those idiots will just dig themselves in deeper and go for a more insane candidate. Nothing sinks in to them. NOTHING. Not even when they are the object of their own party's scorn. Totally out of touch with reality.

• Oops, typo in previous version. New England College: NEW HAMPSHIRE Obama 49.5 Romney 44.4 Other 2.4 Undecided 3.7 Published: November 2, 2012 In the race for President, among 1017 respondents, 49.5% said they would vote for President Barack Obama, 44.4% said they would vote for Mitt Romney, 2.4% indicated they would vote for another candidate and 3.7% said they were not sure. The margin of error is 3.7%. The President gained slightly from last week’s NEC poll and Mr. Romney dropped a point, as the number of undecided voters begins to decline. “The gender gap exists with President Obama maintaining a strong lead among women; while men have a more competitive split between the two candidates,” explains Dr. Ben Tafoya, director of the Polling Center in NEC’s Center for Civic Engagement. “If Governor Romney is going to close the gap on the President he will need to perform significantly better among women.” The President has strong support from Democrats leads among Independents; while Governor Romney has strong support among Republicans. Mr. Obama holds 95% percent support among Democrats; Mr. Romney holds 89% support among Republicans. In the race for Independent voters in New Hampshire, the President has a 49%-39% edg

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• 7.9 Unemployment with 170G+ jobs added for Oct.

• A trusted Democratic operative sent us some data on the early and absentee ballot vote in Florida so far to make the point that Barack Obama is crushing Mitt Romney when it comes to banking the votes of sporadic and infrequent voters before election day. So far more than 3 million Floridians have cast a ballot by absentee, mail-in ballot or in-person early vote ballot. Democrats lead by more than 60,000 votes, but it's the unlikely voter numbers that jump out:

  http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/democrats-crushing-republicans-sporadic-fla-voters-early-voting%23comments%20

• Rasmussen Reports [Tie] Obama - 48 Romney - 48 ---- Romney drops 2 points in Rasmussen today from [+2] down to a Tie.

  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/an_unpredictable_end_to_a_very_predictable_election

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• Curiously, what has Rasmussen been the last four or five days? I know it was 49-47 Romney for a couple and 50-47 Romney but given that it's a 3-day rolling average I'm curious.

• Off-topic: Dr. Lulu Fong, is your moniker a tribute to the late, great Regina Fong?

  http://www.theblackcap.com/html/regina_fong.htm

• [quote]Curiously, what has Rasmussen been the last four or five days? Rasmussen has been Romney [+2] for the last 5 days as far I remember. What today's numbers most likely mean is that Rasmussen realized he can't hold Romney's numbers up any longer and suspects Obama is probably winning this election and wants to begin the move in that direction. Rasmussen's job is to artificially inflate Republican support for as long as he can but time is running out and Rasmussen isn't willing to put Romney's interests ahead of his own. Rasmussen wants his final numbers to be close so that he can maintain a good reputation for 'accuracy'.

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• I have never heard of Regina Fong.

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• NEW HAMPSHIRE - PRESIDENT [Obama +6] New England College Obama - 50 Romney - 44

  http://www.nec.edu/news/new-poll-gives-president-obama-some-daylight-in-new-hampshire

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• 2,254,538 votes have been cast in NC: 364,676 MORE Dem than Repub votes

• [bold]Fivethirtyeight had Obama winning up to almost 90%.[/bold]

• Rasmussen is still trying to influence the election, though, with outlier polls in some key swing states. Colorado: Romney-50%, Obama-47%. Just about all of the other recent polls are showing Obama with a slight lead. Iowa: Romney-49%, Obama-48%. The same. The other recent polls are all showing Obama with a slight lead. Wisconsin: Romney-49%, Obama-49%. This is the worst, as literally every other poll in the past two months shows Obama head, by as much as 8 or 9%.

• HAWAII - PRESIDENT [Obama +27] Honolulu Civil Beat Obama - 61 Romney - 34

  http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/11/02/17490-civil-beat-poll-obama-lead-narrows-but-hawaii-still-very-safe/

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• Rasmussen: WISCONSIN - SENATE - Baldwin 48 (+1) Thompson 48 (-)

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• WISCONSIN - SENATE [Tie] Rasmussen Reports Baldwin (D) - 48 Thompson (R) - 48 ---- Friday, November 02, 2012 Former Governor Tommy Thompson and Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin are tied in Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows Thompson and Baldwin each earning 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_senate

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• Obama now at 0.3% Nationally at the RCP Average (if they would take that outdated Gallup poll out of there it would be even higher).

  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

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• Anyone have any recent polls on same-sex marriage in Washington State?

• R33 - when? It's at 80.9% right now.

• 2012 Poll Troll- I looked at your old post and noted that Romney had been up in Rasmussen 50-46 on the 27th. So that's a four point drop in six days.

• 91% is the number for winning the SENATE.

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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• Debunked reasons why Republicans think Romney is really winning. 1. Romney is winning the independent vote! If you look at the historical data on party affiliation, what you'll see is Republican party affiliation plummeting in the fall of 2010 with a corresponding rise in the Independent identification. Basically, a number of Tea Partiers no longer called themselves Republicans but that did not make them any less conservative. It's not at all surprising that those "independent" voters would be voting for Romney but, unfortunately for Romney supporters, it doesn't mean that Romney has an overall edge. 2. Pollsters are using outdated party affiliation models and Romney is really winning by a landslide! This is the argument of the idiot who runs the "unskewed polls" website. The trouble for him is that party affiliation is fluid, changing significantly with each election. The Pew Research Center did a poll in October and again in November (post-election) in a recent election and found that the party affiliation had changed by 15% in just that one month. Virtually none of the major pollsters adjust for party affiliation in their polls, so what you're seeing is what the public is actually reporting. 3. Romney has the momentum! There is no question that Romney got a bump after the first debate. The trouble is that that the bump did not continue. Within a week, the polls settled down to a new equilibrium, with the candidates essentially in a dead heat in the national vote and with Obama maintaining a slight lead in the swing states. There has been no additional move towards Romney in the past four weeks. If anything, the reverse is true, with Obama seeing a slight bump the week before the election.

  Paul

• R39, the latest poll shows same-sex marriage in Washington is likely to pass. Quoting from the link: Referendum 74, which would bring marriage equality to Washington, is ahead 57.9-36.9 percent among likely voters. With a factoring in of those not willing to give a "socially undesirable" answer, the poll gives the adjusted prediction of a 52.3-45.8 perent victory margin among likely voters. "We have seen no decrease in support for Referendum 74," said University of Washington political scientist Matt Barreto, overseer of the survey. The Washington Poll is a project of the UW and KCTS-TV.

  http://www.seattlepi.com/local/connelly/article/Same-sex-marriage-marijuana-likely-to-pass-4000795.php

  Paul

• I have decided that the problem might be headline writers and not the actual reporters. Look at that headline at R35.

• Thanks, Paul! x

• oops, you're right r40.

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• The comments from freepers on fivethirtyeight are HILARIOUS. They really don't read anything. They just parrot the talking points and Karl Rove.

• Are there any estimates to what the Democratic pickup in the House will be? It's clear the Senate will stay Dem (regardless of the emails from Al Franken, and the DSCC), but what I want to know is will the House be within striking distance in the 2014 elections?

• More debunked reasons why Republicans think Romney is really winning. 4. The undecided voters always break for the challenger! This is a truism that keeps getting repeated over and over again, but when you actually look at the historical data for both Presidential and Congressional races, you find that it just isn't true. Historically, the undecided voters tend to vote pretty much the same way the decided voters do, with perhaps a very slight edge to the candidate that had been running behind in the polls. Since the candidates have been locked in a dead heat for the past month, we can expect neither candidate to get a flood of the remaining few undecided voters. 5. No president has ever won reelection with the economy this bad! Those who make this argument frequently cite Carter and George H. W. Bush, while conveniently forgetting Franklin Roosevelt. In any case, when you look at the actual data, what you see is that it's not so much a matter of where the economy is but where the voters think it is going. If the voters think that the economy is moving in the right direction, that favors the incumbent, even if it's bad at that particular moment. According to Nate Silver, who's crunched the numbers on this, the key point seems to be at roughly 150,000 jobs/month. If the number is above that, the incumbent has the advantage. If below, the challenger. This year, the average has been right around 150,000, so neither candidate should have a significant edge. 6. Pollster [x] is the most accurate pollster ever and they show Romney winning! This is usually said about Rasmussen and Gallup. The counter-argument for this is to ask them to look not just at the final poll before the election but at the polls leading up to that final poll. Both Rasmussen and Gallup, in particular, fare less well when you look at the overall aggregate of their polls as compared to just the final poll. Gallup, in particular, has suffered when you compare its "likely voters" model to the "registered voters" model, since the latter has been more accurate in several elections.

  Paul

• If you read between the lines of Rasmussen's analysis today, he is clearly leaning towards a Romney defeat. Most telling, he says the Romney has a tough road to win Ohio. Why would he say that when he just put out a poll that has Romney ahead by 2 in Ohio? Rasmussen knows he's been tilting the scale. It's all coming home to roost now.

• Looks like PPP will release a huge number of state polls in the final 72 hours. [quote]Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI

  https://twitter.com/ppppolls

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• IOWA - PRESIDENT [Obama +4] Gravis Marketing Obama - 49 Romney - 45

  http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/11/final-iowa-public-opinion-poll2012.html

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• Thanks, TroyD. :-)

• Thanks R44, it is important that in all the presidential election coverage we don't lose track of the fact that gay rights are in the ballots in four states. In Maine and Washington it is possible that same-sex marriage is going to be approved by the voters, that would be the first time in our history that happens. It is huge and I will be anxiously awaiting those results on election night.

• Great news all around. But remember, these are just estimates of what pollsters believe people are going to do. None of it will happen unless we Get Out The Vote.

  emo

• 171,000 new jobs added in October. It was well above the consensus of analysts surveyed ahead of time. The bureau also revised its previously reported growth in payroll employment in August from 142,000 to 192,000 and in September from 114,000 to 148,000.

• VA-Sen: Republican George Allen just lent his campaign $500K in its final days, which is hard to read as a positive sign for his chances. The reality is, aside from weirdo conservative pollsters like Gravis or We Ask America, and the always-wrong Roanoke College (they started the race with Allen up 13 points!), you have to go back to mid-July to find Allen leading in any poll.

• Anything new on the New York 24th, where Dems are hoping to win back a House seat narrowly lost in 2010?

• R59, RealClearPolitics only shows one poll there, taken two months ago, with the candidates tied 43% each. They list this as "leans Dem." An internal DCCC poll taken at the end of August shows Maffei up by 6 but you have to take that one with a huge grain of salt. There just isn't a lot of data there.

• 4 more days until 4 more years!!

• I believe there are four votes on marriage equality coming up (WA, ME, MN, MD). I saw the earlier post that points to a victory in Washington. What about the others?

• Just sat in on a live call from the Obama campaign (they sent the link to lots of donors, even us baby ones), and the message was (duh) that early voting results are very positive, that the GOTV effort continues, and needs to continue; and I'm sorry I didn't take notes. I was squeeing like a fangirl when the President spoke.

• R62, I heard something on Stephanie Miller's show this morning about the Maryland same-sex marriage initiative, where it looked good recently, now being more of a toss-up, supposedly because of otherwise liberal preachers pushing back with their congregations. Not sure where that was sourced from.

• Intrade just moved Obama to 294 Electoral votes It has been 281 for a while.

  http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/

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• R65, do you know what changes they made to the map? What states did they finally concede to Obama?

• I'm still seeing 281.

• If it's 13 it would either be Virginia OR Colorado AND New Hampshire

• In polling data on same-sex marriage you have to add everyone that said "don't know" or "unsure" to no. A recent PPP poll showed the yes side at 52% and the no+undecided at 48% for Maine. We are leading in Maine but it is going to be close. The latest Maryland poll shows 46% favor with 54% against.

• Final Purple Poll: Obama 47 Romney 46; Swing States: Obama 48 Romney 46 For our final PurplePoll, we looked at voters nationwide and in the Purple Electorate. With just four days to go until the election, President Obama leads Governor Romney 47% to 46% nationally. In Purple States, Obama leads by two: 48% to 46%. Romney holds a slight lead among independents nationally, 44% to 43%. In Purple States, Obama holds a 1-point advantage among independents (45% to 44%). As we have seen before, views about the direction of the economy remain the strongest predictor of vote choice: President Obama gets 93% of voters who think the economy is getting better, while Governor Romney has 90% of voters who think it is getting worse.

  http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/November110212_v4.pdf

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• Final Denver Post CO Poll: 47 Obama 45 Romney According to The Post's poll 59 percent of people surveyed say they have already voted and another 21 percent say they will vote before Election Day. Only 18 percent say they plan to cast a ballot on Tuesday. The poll of 695 likely voters was conducted by New Jersey-based Survey USA on Sunday and Wednesday and it reached voters via both land lines and cellphones. The survey sample was 34 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat and 27 percent unaffiliated — based on how people identified themselves to the pollster. Check back with The Denver Post on Sunday for more detailed results from the poll. Read more: Poll: Obama, Romney still essentially tied in Colorado - The Denver Post

  http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21914514/poll-obama-romney-still-essentially-tied-colorado

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• Rasmussen has it tied in Ohio now, which is a 2 percent Obama surge in that poll since Wednesday.

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• Rasmussen OHIO Obama 49% Romney 49% We know that Democrats have a party ID advantage in OH. Romeny must win independents to carry Ohio so this bit from Scott Rasmussen is important: Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party. This is significant because if Obama is ahead with independents and there should be at least a 4-5% D ID advantage then Obama is 5% or more up. Keep in mind that Rasmussen has set party ID for their polls so they will weigh the results to what they think the ID should be. This is a really good poll result.

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• Reuters/Ipsos Obama 46 Romney 46

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• Every other polls are showing Obama up by at least 2. Rasmussen is insistent that everything is tied up. We'll see come Tuesday.

• GBT voters, who could make the difference in the close presidential race, support President Obama in even greater numbers than they did earlier this year, according to a new poll. The Harris Interactive poll, conducted for the Logo TV network late last month, found that after the last presidential debate, 72% of likely LGBT voters favored the president, up from 65% in the previous Harris/Logo survey in August. Support for Mitt Romney declined slightly, from 21% to 20%. “The movement toward Obama is mostly a shift of LGBT voters who were unsure on the initial vote in August (9%) who have now moved to Obama,” the Harris report says. “If Election Day is as narrow as many are predicting, Romney’s inability to turn these unsure LGBT voters to his candidacy could mean the difference between victory and defeat.” Among the general population, support for Obama slipped somewhat since August, when Harris found 44% favored him and 39% backed Romney. The more recent numbers were 41% for Obama and 43% for Romney.

  http://www.advocate.com/politics/election/2012/11/02/lgbt-support-obama-rises-and-could-tip-election

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• Devastating new ad. Make it go viral.

  http://www.youtube.com/watch%3Ffeature%3Dplayer_embedded%26v%3DZENtH3psXl4%23%21

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• The crosstabs of the Rasmussen Ohio poll are deadly for Romney Among Independents: Obama 50% Romney 41% Party affiliation: Republican 36% Democratic 35% Other/Indy 29% So it is a R+1 poll.... and yet it is tied 49-49. If Obama wins unaffiliated voters in Ohio by a 50-41 margin.... then he wins the state by 5 or 6.

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• Ohio is a lock. There are only 3 contested states: Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

• That ad at R77 rocked me back on my heels. Wow. Thanks, Dr. Lulu.

• Is there enough of a lead that they can't steal it - Ohio that is? That's great about the crosstabs on Rasmussen because freepers are always citing independents and Rasmussen. I'm going to go see if they're heads are exploding.

• We Ask America: WISCONSIN Obama 52, Romney 45

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• Final We Ask America: Virginia Obama 49, Romney 48

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• FINAL We Ask America: OHIO Obama 50, Romney 46

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• Big crowd for First Lady Michelle Obama in VA.

  https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/264455920178823169/photo/1/large

• The Markets 3.5 Days before Election Day? Betfair: Obama 76.6%, PredictWise: Obama 71.8%, Iowa EM: Obama 71.0%

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• Reuters Obama +3 VA, +2 OH, +2 FL, Even CO

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• New CNN Ohio poll Obama 50 Romney 47

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Fantastic news on Virginia. Thank you for posting. I sure hope it comes true.

• 16 swing state polls ... Romney leads in ZERO. Colorado: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos) Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling) Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Denver Post/SurveyUSA) Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos) Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Gravis) Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen) Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling) Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Mellman) New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (New England College) Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (CNN/ORC) Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen) Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos) Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (We Ask America) Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos) Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (We Ask America) Wisconsin: Obama 52%, Romney 45% (We Ask America)

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +3] CNN Obama - 50 Romney - 47 ---- (CNN) - With four days to go until the presidential election, a new poll indicates the race for arguably the most important battleground state remains very close. According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a three point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the contest for Ohio's much fought over 18 electoral votes. Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 47% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's three-point edge is within the survey's sampling error. The survey was conducted Tuesday through Thursday. The poll's release comes on the same day that the president holds three campaign events and Romney holds two events in Ohio. "The race in the Buckeye State has remained essentially the same throughout October, with all three CNN/ORC polls taken in October showing President Obama at 50%-51% and all three showing Governor Romney at 46%-47%," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/02/cnn-poll-obama-50-romney-47-in-ohio/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Nice way to take things out of context, r77.

• A tie is not ZERO, r90. Romney is in a very good position.

• A tie is not "leads." Obama leads in many swing state polls released within the last day. Romney does not.

  Dr%20LULU%20FOND

• While it's technically true that no one can say for sure what is going to happen Tuesday night, and just out of hopeful curiosity... How big would the electoral vote gap have to be to be legitimately called a landslide?

• reading comprehension is not your friend eh, r93? A tie is not LEADING, either... I guess he's in a good position if you like to be on the bottom...

  Me%3F%20I%27m%20a%20top.

• Things are looking good in Ohio. Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Anyone who lives in Ohio and doesn't vote should be beaten to within an inch of his life.

• R.I.P., Mitt Romney, by Robert Shrum by Robert Shrum Nov 2, 2012 3:20 PM EDT Mitt made multiple mistakes that will lead to his defeat on Tuesday. Some of them date all the way back to 2008. The campaign has come down to a race between Mitt’s media and Mitt’s mistakes—and the mistakes are winning. We have now crossed the billion dollar mark in ad purchases. In Ohio alone, the two sides, Super PACs and all, are spending $30 million in the closing week—and in the battleground states overall, Romney forces are outspending Obama by $30 million. But the contest is not as unbalanced as the numbers. The Obama money goes further because more of the total buy has been placed by the campaign itself, which by law pays less for television time than outside groups. Obama’s strategists also got more for less than the Romney enterprise by buying well in advance, when the so-called lowest unit rate was lower. In any event, the airwaves in the swing states are saturated. The Thursday before the election, the noon news on the CBS station in Columbus, Ohio, featured 22 political spots one after another. A lot of it, perhaps most of it, is so much electoral wallpaper. What matters more is what happened months or even years ago, when Mitt Romney inflicted serial damage on himself that can’t be wiped away by a last-minute ad barrage or a barnstorming tour through the final hours. Go all the way back to Nov. 18, 2008, when Romney wrote that op-ed in The New York Times headlined: “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.” Few pieces have had as long or relevant a political life. Michigan, Mitt’s original home state, and Ohio, home to 850,000 auto industry-related jobs, have proved stubbornly resistant to a Republican nominee who seems so conspicuously hostile to their livelihoods. If the President carries both states, Romney’s prospects next Tuesday look about as promising as the Edsel’s in the 1950s. For those too young to remember it, the car was a landmark flop. Wikipedia offers a commonly accepted explanation: it was “a supreme example of the corporate culture’s failure to understand American consumers.” Romney’s op-ed was a supreme example of a corporate guy’s failure to understand American voters. He can quibble that he favored “a managed bankruptcy”—without the use of federal funds. The Obama campaign—and most experts—respond that in the depth of the financial crisis, there was no private capital available to keep the auto companies in business while they were reorganized. That’s true, but almost beside the point. What’s indelible, immediately apprehensible, persistently top-of-mind is the headline itself. Romney could have claimed he didn’t write it; he didn’t. He could have argued it wasn’t what he meant. Instead, he doubled down, telling an interviewer: “That’s exactly what I said—the headline you read—‘Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.’”

  http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/02/r-i-p-mitt-romney.html

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• 3.5 days left. About a third of swing state voters have already voted.

• So, if 72% of the gays are supporting the President, does that mean 28% are supporting Romney? That's higher than the McCain total, right?

• MONTANA - SENATE [Tester +1] Rasmussen Reports Tester (D) - 49 Rehberg (R) - 48 ---- Friday, November 02, 2012 The Montana Senate race remains a near tie as Election Day nears, with incumbent Democrat Jon Tester now ahead by one point. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Montana Voters finds Tester with 49% support to 48% for his Republican challenger, Congressman Denny Rehberg. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/montana/election_2012_montana_senate

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Looks like today's polling has even shaken Dick Morris: [quote]Dick Morris Sees Danger Signs November 02, 2012 Dick Morris, who just days ago predicted a landslide for Mitt Romney, may be wavering. "With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48. That is troublesome. "And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night's polling, he was tied. We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan." "More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll."

  http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/02/dick_morris_sees_danger_signs.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• r100, more gays would blow Romney than would blow McCain. A vote is nothing more than a blowjob for a gay Republican.

• I come to this thread to calm my nerves, so thank you. That said, we're putting one Hell of a lot of faith in Mr. Silver, and I can't help but think of this famous photo:

  http://www.theipinionsjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/obamadewey.jpg

  Wednesday%20Can%27t%20Come%20Soon%20Enough

• Sure you do, freepsy.

• Um R104, this is way beyond Nate Silver now.

• [quote]The latest Maryland poll shows 46% favor with 54% against. I think we need to be a little clearer here. The WA and ME initiatives would legalize SSM if approved. The MD and MN initiatives are state constitutional amendments that would ban it. So when you say "46% favor" in MD, are you saying that's the percentage of voters in favor of passing the amendment banning SSM?

• 104, Nate Silver does not thing but collect and analyze other company's polls. He's not creating the numbers, he's adding them up.

• OHIO - PRESIDENT [Tie] Rasmussen Reports Obama - 49 Romney - 49 ----- Friday, November 02, 2012 With four days to go, President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds Obama and Romney each with 49% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while one percent (1%) is undecided. Ohio remains one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama won the Buckeye State in 2008 by a 52% to 47% margin. At the beginning of the week, Romney held a slight 50% to 48% advantage. It was the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race of Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes since late May, but the two candidates have been within two percentage points of one another since then. Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead. Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• INDIANA - SENATE [Donnelly +3] Rasmussen Reports Donnelly (D) - 45 Mourdock (R) - 42 ---- Friday, November 02, 2012 Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly has a three-point lead over Republican Richard Mourdock in the closing days of Indiana’s U.S. Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Indiana Voters shows Donnelly with 45% support to Mourdock’s 42%. A surprisingly large number of voters either prefer another candidate in the race (6%) or remain undecided (6%). The Indiana survey of 600 Likely Voters was conducted November 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/indiana/election_2012_indiana_senate

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• And Ras moves to Obama.

• What the FUCK??? Older voters prefer Romney on healthcare, Medicare: Reuters/Ipsos poll

  http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE8A11CR20121102%3Firpc%3D932

• If I might intrude into this excellent thread while some recent discussion has focused on the marriage equality issue, it was announced recently that the Supremes will meet on Nov. 20 to decide whether to hear the California Prop 8 case (as well as the four DOMA cases pending). The timing is tight after the election, and the election results could well influence their decision. I personally expect that they will decline to hear it now, which would restore SSM to California. I think it would also open the rest of the 9th district to SSM, but I'm not sure and would welcome a correction if not. Sorry to go off poll topic. If people would like to discuss this, maybe a member could start a thread.

  http://www.prop8trialtracker.com/2012/10/29/breaking-supreme-court-plans-to-conference-prop-8-case-on-november-20/

• Does health care reform cover dementia? Those old folks better hope so.

• I think VA, CO and FL will break for Obama in the final days. People want to support a winner. And I still think NC is doable. I also think some of the close Senate races could break for Democrats now. It would warm my heart to see Tester, Heitkamp, Berkley, Carmona, McCaskill and Donnelly win.

• r112, that's because grandma and grandpa have no problem throwing their children and grandchildren under a bus. Selfish old fucks.

• [quote]Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead. That's all you need to know right there.

• Got an email plea from Chuck Schumer to contribute to Tester and Kaine, so I did. They also asked me to throw a few bucks in for Schumer, and I'm like yeah, you aren't even running this year, buddy.

• [quote]Older voters prefer Romney on healthcare, Medicare: Reuters/Ipsos poll It should read: Older voters prefer white candidates.

• Thank you R119.

• I've always been confident that the President would win re-election but the waiting is fucking killing me. HURRY UP AND GET HERE, TUESDAY. Jaysus.

• OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +4] WeAskAmerica Obama - 50 Romney - 46 ---- VIRGINIA - PRESIDENT [Obama +1] WeAskAmerica Obama - 49 Romney - 48 ---- WISCONSIN - PRESIDENT [Obama +7] WeAskAmerica Obama - 52 Romney - 45

  http://weaskamerica.com/2012/11/02/hot-off-the-presses-2/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Students in Colorado heading Obama's call last night to vote early. Apparently thousands did.

  http://www.barackobama.com/co/entry/co-day-after-president-rallies-boulder-massive-turnout-on-campus

• The unions start their massive voter turnout operation tomorrow in swing states. It's the biggest operation they've ever attempted. Make sure you have cold bottles of water or soda on hand to give any Obama GOTV workers should they knock on your door this weekend.

• Has anyone received out of the blue robocalls from Republicans? Coming home today, there was one message on my answering machine from Newt Gingrich, asking people to vote for among other things "our family values" and then later, it was a recorded message from Rick Santorum. I'm a lifelong Democrat in Philadelphia, PA and have no idea why they targeted my house.

• Living in Ohio we got robo-called to death last election. We dropped the landline and haven't gotten any calls this time around.

• Newsmax/Zogby [Obama +2] Obama - 48 Romney - 46 ----- November 02, 2012 [quote]Newsmax/Zogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll [quote]Obama Moves into Slight Lead -- 48% to 46% 'So-So-Mentum'? Pollster John Zogby: "Obama was down three points just three days ago and we have seen a five point shift since then. All of this has taken place since the storm. He has been off the campaign trail winning praise for leadership from both parties, while Romney is just now getting back to attack mode. As I have noted this race has been notable for its lack of any sustained momentum by either candidate. The race for independents is close and Romney has only a three point advantage. Obama has slightly raised his re-elect to 44%, but that is still weak. All bets are still off -- except for maybe one." The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 36.8% Democrats, 34.7% Republicans and 28.5% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+. The new three-day rolling average of 1,016 U.S. likely voters, conducted online from Tuesday (October 29) through Thursday (November 01), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

  http://www.jzanalytics.com/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• PPP now beginning the release of its final batch of state polls before Election Day. First up - MAINE.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• MAINE - PRESIDENT [Obama +13] Public Policy Polling Obama - 55 Romney - 42 ----- MAINE 2ND DISTRICT - PRESIDENT [Obama +5] Public Policy Polling Obama - 51 Romney - 46 ----- MAINE - SENATE [King +14] Public Policy Polling King (I) - 50 Summers (R) - 36 Dill (D) - 12

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-king-marriage-lead-in-maine.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Just a little something to get everyone fired up for the weekend....

  http://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3Di5knEXDsrL4

• [quote]Nate Silver Update: 6:51 PM ET on Nov. 2 Chance of Winning Obama = 81.1% Romney = 18.9% --- Electoral Vote Obama = 303.3 Romney = 234.7 --- Popular Vote Obama = 50.4% Romney = 48.4%

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• MUSLIM KENYAN HATES AMERICA

  FREEPER

• Steve Peoples ‏@sppeoples Steady stream of people leaving Romney rally in the middle of his speech. Maybe it's the cold, but energy level low in Ohio. #2012

• I just got finished watching "Washington Week" with Gwen Ifell and all they could do was talk about Romney's momentum. Thanks 2012 Poll Troll & Lulu Fong for giving the real info about the polls!

• Ohio is going to Romney. Not because he'll win the popular vote. He won't, but the republicans in Ohio will intimidate voters, change ballots, and screw with the machines. Ohio republicans are lower than low. But Obama should have enough state to win it even without Ohio.

• R135 - You are concern trolling.

• [quote]A tie is not ZERO, R90. Romney is in a very good position. Losing is a "very good position," R93? Fascinating point of view you have there.

• Oh, so *that's* who R93 is. From another thread (I do so love trolldar): [quote]I can ponly [sic] guess what your bamk [sic] statement looks like compared to mine. [quote]Me and my partner have ALWAYS done better financially under Republican leadership as opposed to the democrat party. If you can believe it - GWB was great for us and I only wish he were back in office. 'nuf said.

• The local pundits in Las Vegas show up on PBS KLVX every Friday. There was a fairly uniform consensus that Nevada will be Obama+6 when all is said and done on Tuesday.

  Nevada%20Precinct%20Captain

• Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight Obama has an 82.66543% chance of winning the Electoral College in tonight's forecast.

  LULU%20FONG

• Nate Silver was on Rachel tonight!

• OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +6] NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist Obama - 51 Romney - 45 ---- FLORIDA - PRESIDENT [Obama +2] NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist Obama - 49 Romney - 47 ----- [quote]Polls: Obama stays ahead in Ohio, deadlocked with Romney in Fla. Three days until Election Day, President Barack Obama maintains his lead in the key battleground state of Ohio and is locked in a close contest with Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in Florida, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls. In Ohio, Obama holds a six-point advantage over Romney among likely voters, 51 percent to 45 percent, which is unchanged from last month’s poll in the Buckeye State. And in Florida, the president gets support from 49 percent of likely voters, while his GOP challenger gets 47 percent. Those numbers are virtually identical to the ones from October, when it was Obama 48 percent, Romney 47 percent.

  http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/02/14891866-polls-obama-stays-ahead-in-ohio-deadlocked-with-romney-in-fla

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Reports on Twitter of people leaving during Mitt's speech at Ohio rally after Kid Rock finishes playing.

• Nate Silver updated his Senate Model tonight: Indiana (Lean Democratic) Chance of winning\t Donnelly (D) - 68%\t Mourdock (R) - 32% -- Projected vote share (Donnelly +2.5) Donnelly (D) - 50.0 Mourdock (R) - 47.5

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• PPP National Tracking [Obama +1] Obama - 49 Romney -48 --- Obama now leads with Independents 50 - 44

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/1031111112TrackerResults.pdf

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• [quote]Reports on Twitter of people leaving during Mitt's speech at Ohio rally after Kid Rock finishes playing. Jesus H. Christ, A Romney rally. In Ohio. With Kid Rock playing--there's vision of Hell if I ever saw one.

• [quote]Nate Silver Update: 12:43 AM ET on Nov. 3 Electoral vote Obama = 305.3 Romney = 232.7 ---- Chance of Winning Obama = 83.7% Romney = 16.3% ---- Popular vote Obama = 50.6% Romney = 48.4%

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• MASSACHUSETTS - PRESIDENT [Obama +15] Public Policy Polling Obama - 57 Romney - 42 --- MASSACHUSETTS - SENATE [Warren +6] Public Policy Polling Warren (D) - 52 Brown (R) - 46\t

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/democrats-likely-to-win-ct-ma-senate-races.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• CONNECTICUT - PRESIDENT [Obama +13] Public Policy Polling Obama - 55 Romney - 42 ---- CONNECTICUT - SENATE [Murphy +9] Public Policy Polling Murphy (D) 52 McMahon (R) 43

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/democrats-likely-to-win-ct-ma-senate-races.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Purple Strategies [Obama +1] Barack Obama - 47% Mitt Romney - 46% ---- Saturday, November 03, 2012 ---- Among Independents Mitt Romney - 44% Barack Obama - 43% --- Among Men Mitt Romney - 47% Barack Obama - 44% --- Among Women Barack Obama - 49% Mitt Romney - 44%

  http://www.argojournal.com/2012/11/poll-watch-purple-strategies-2012.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Could someone post (or link to) a summary of the House races? What's the net change likely to be there? Any good numbers for Ryan in Wisconsin or Bachmann?

• Bachmann faced a good challenger but is widely expected to hold on to her seat. The latest Bachmann poll has her up by 6. Ryan's challenger never really got any traction and Ryan is expected to win reelection easily. The polling information for the House overall is pretty sparse. The general consensus is that Democrats will pick up a few seats there but will not have enough to regain control.

  Paul

• Good news -- Rasmussen is now coming around to saying that the race is a tie. That means Obama is definitely winning.

• fivethirtyeight now has Obama at 305 electoral votes and an 84% chance of winning.

• OK, so I went over to free republic to see what they are saying and thinking. They are crowing over some poll from Susquahanna (sp?) in PA. Those who are smarter than me when it comes to politics...what say you? Warning- link is to free republic

  http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954131/posts

• I see that Susq poll also has Casey (D) - 2 in the senate race - I do not believe that poll is accurate. (Oh, wait a minute - am I delusional - do I think that I am POLL TROLL, or Nate, Or Dr. Lulu, or Sam Wang? - well, maybe, but I still do not believe that poll is accurate!)

  Kansas%20boy

• The poll is heavily skewed Republican and was taken over a month ago according to this link. Not sure why it seems relevant now.

  http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251154540

• When you are desperate, you will look for any port in the storm (I'm sorry, I probably shouldn't reference Sandy in a political forum); ok then, when you are sinking you will grasp at any straw(poll). (Trust me, I KNOW straw!)

  Kansas%20boy

• I'm optimistic!

  http://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DjFJUz1DO20Q

• Love that dance GOTV video!

• Keep bumping this thread. We need to beat down the demoralizing concern trolls bleating about Romney lawn signs in affluent blue state suburbs, or predictions of "meltdowns" based on nothing but gut feelings and devoid of any factual context.

• All this is crap , it's going to be Romney by a landslide ! come wednesday you are all going to crap your pants..

• Let me take this opportunity to tell Poll Troll that I have appreciated all the good work. And thank you, previous poster, for yet another demonstration that freepers are invested in denying reality.

• How do polling organizations determine who the likely voters are? I became eligible to vote in 2008 and voted in 2010, would I be considered a likely voter?

• Talked to a couple GOP consultants today who mentioned Michele Bachmann might lose — @JoshuaGreen via web

• They ask them their voting history. If you've voted in every election in the last x number of years, you're considered a likely voter. I'm sure there's some criteria for young voters like you, R164. Have you voted in every election since becoming eligible? Do you vote in primaries?

• here's the info about the Susquehanna poll: Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today* shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters. Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other candidates. HOWEVER is here info about Susquehanna's polling methodology from earlier in the month (also there polling results are only reported in the Washington Examiner & Real Clear Politics): This sample is two percent fewer Democrats than the voters registration figures and five percent more Republicans. That difference is probably the degree to which the pollster believes the make up of the electorate in Pennsylvania will include more Republicans due to the enthusiasm level expected...If the poll is “unskewed” using the state voter registration figures, which would assume absolute zero enthusiasm edge for Republicans, which seems unlikely, the poll's data would then indicate a slim Obama lead of 47.57

• Susquehanna is a Republican-leaning polling firm. And as Nate Silver said on Rachel Maddow last night, 24 out of the last 24 polls have shown Obama ahead in PA. What's the likelihood that Mitt can win there? About a 5% chance.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• CALIFORNIA - SENATE [Feinstein +21] Field\t Feinstein (D) 54 Emken (R) 33 --- CALIFORNIA - PRESIDENT [Obama +15] Field Obama - 54 Romney - 39

  http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2433.pdf

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• This is not being talked about: Asian-Americans are following a similar trajectory, only a few decades behind. Every state saw its Asian and Pacific Islander population jump by at least 30 percent between 2000 and 2010 (except Hawaii, which was already majority Asian-American). The Asian population surged by 71 percent in Virginia, 95 percent in Arizona, 85 percent in North Carolina, and 116 percent in Nevada, according to census figures. Thank an influx of Asian immigrants. Despite the nation’s focus on Latino immigration, Asians actually outnumbered Hispanics in 2010, according to the most recent data available from the Pew Research Center—a reversal of past trends. Nearly two-thirds of Asian-Americans are foreign-born. Because there were so few Asians to begin with, the rapid growth rate can be misleading in some places. But not everywhere: In Nevada, for instance, Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders now make up about 9 percent of the population—more than the state’s much-discussed Mormon community.

• I think 5% change in Pennsylvania is generous. That's great in California as I voted for Feinstein. But seriously, she will be 85 at the end of this next term. Someone make her retire or run another Democrat against her. We don't need her nodding off in session.

• R171, that will be 6 years from now, so perhaps this will be her last term. But she is far from the oldest Senator in the U.S. Senate! There are half a dozen who are older.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Last minute attempt to steal election for the Republicans may well work. See link from Think Progress A last-minute directive issued by Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted could invalidate legal provisional ballots. Ohio is widely viewed as the most critical state for both presidential campaigns and — with some polls showing a close race — the 11th-hour move could swing the entire election. The directive, issued Friday, lays out the requirements for submitting a provisional ballot. The directive includes a form which puts the burden on the voter to correctly record the form of ID provided to election officials. Husted also instructed election officials that if the form is not filled out correctly by a voter, the ballot should not be counted.

  http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/11/03/1134981/last-minute-ohio-directive-could-trash-legal-votes-and-swing-the-election/

• [quote]Talked to a couple GOP consultants today who mentioned Michele Bachmann might lose Oh please God.

• R173, that's depressing. It's so obvious that Republicans are making a collective effort to disenfranchise voters. Isn't there something they can be prosecuted for?

• So what can be done about this, R173? Anything?

• R173, Where is the CIA? Can't they take out this motherfucker? Husted needs to be taken to a black site pronto! CIA needs to handle this once and for all. TAKE HIS ASS OUT! NEVER TO HEARD FROM AGAIN! Stop trying to steal this election!

• NATIONAL [Tie] Rasmussen Reports Obama - 48 Romney - 48 ---- Saturday, November 03, 2012 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows the race tied, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided. Forty-six percent (46%) are certain they will vote for Romney, while 45% are sure they will vote for the president. For most of the year, Rasmussen Reports has conducted 500 survey interviews per night and reported the results on a three-day rolling average basis. For the final week of the campaign, we are conducting 1,000 survey interviews per night. In the battle for the White House, the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney 206. The magic number needed to win the White House is 270. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. New surveying finds the race in the critical state of Ohio all tied up. Look for final surveys from Rasmussen Reports in the Toss-Up states between now and Election Day. The president is still ahead by five points in Michigan, but that’s the closet the race there has been all year. “It’s somewhat surprising that heading into the final weekend of the election season, we are unable to confidently project who is likely to win the White House,” Scott Rasmussen writes in his latest weekly newspaper column. “But the race for the White House remains close because of the economy. Most Americans do not feel better off than they were four years ago, but most are not feeling worse off either.” Democrat Joe Donnelly now has a three-point lead over embattled Republican Richard Mourdock in Indiana’s U.S. Senate race. The race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings. ---- President Obama Job Approval [Approve +3] Rasmussen Reports Approve - 51 Disapprove - 48

  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• In a way, I think the Democrats need a Michelle Bachmann and a Todd Akin. As long as they are omnipresent face of the Republican Party, it really demonstrates the extreme views of the party. It showcases the differences between Democratic and Republican values. People like Paul Ryan, though very extreme in his social views, aren't perceived that way by the Beltway or the mainstream voters. He doesn't present himself that way. He proposes crazy laws "personhood" laws, but somehow, he's been immune to the extremist perception, like Bachmann and Akin.

• President Obama vs. President Bush Job Approval November 3, 2012/2004 Obama = [50.0] + 2.9% Bush = [49.5] + 2.7%

  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_bush_first_term_job_approval.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• People are underestimating the potential impact of Harvey Weinstein's movie, "Seal Team Six", that premieres tomorrow night on the National Geographic Channel. It documents the killing of Bin Laden. Millions of people are going to watch it with just 2 days to go before the election. It's like an Obama campaign video. The network took out a brief clip of Mitt Romney opposing the capture of Bin Laden because they thought it would appear too political.

• I can't seem to find an Electoral College map on FOX.com. I see one on (increasingly fuckwadish) CNN, but not FOX. CNN's has Obama winning so far. Is this why I can't find one on FOX?

• And CNN has had one of the most Republican-leaning Electoral Maps this year, so that's a good sign.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Oh I see, R166. Yes, I've voted in every election and primary since 2008, but I've never been polled or called or anything.

  R164

• Also, at one point today I saw a CNN electoral map designed by Karl Rove that also showed Obama winning, despite having Minnesota and Pennsylvania in the "toss up" columns, among others. I can't find that map anymore.

• R185, do a search for Karl Rove online and you will probably find it. I think he has his own website with an Electoral Map that he updates.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• r164, move to a battleground state. My 82 yo mother has a popular number and I left a list of the people she supports next to the phone complete down-ticket. At a moments notice she will tell you who she supports for judge in any department let alone Congress and State Senator. She turns 83 this month. She's a feisty old Democrat!

  Nevada%20Precinct%20Captain

• Thanks, PT12!

• How does the type of voter suppression activity described in R173 help the Repugs? Surely they have just as many voters likely to fill something in incorrectly and get their votes excluded as Dems. It's not like Repugs are all rocket scientists.

• Nevada Precinct Captain, what's your evaluation of how things are going in your state so far? Jon Ralston reported last night that Democrats have about a 70, 000 advance vote lead in Clark County. Sound right to you? What numbers are you hearing?

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• I found KKKarl's map. He does show Obama winning, but joins the rank of Republican cray cray to "predict" that Romney will eventually win with 279 votes (by winning virtually all the swing states and we all know how likely that is). But anyone claiming that there are maps out there showing Romney actually winning might want to share that with Karl.

• Ralston gets the best numbers. The end of early voting surge was bigger than expected. We are close to the 2008 numbers. It's awesome. Obama is a done deal and now we're hoping his coat-tails will lift Berkley to the Senate. Oceguera is a flawed candidate running against a flawed incumbent, Heck. Don't know id the President can help him. Steven Horsford looks strong. Dina Titus is as done a deal as the President. This will be Heck's last easy run as there are much stronger Dem Candidates waiting in the wings that Oceguera. SO we will be a 2-2 Congressional Delegation. The big winners could be down-ticket Dems in the State Legislature. We have such a fucked up tax base here it is no wonder that NV will be one of the last states to recover economically. But here's a little future political dish. For the first time in Nevada history the political center now moves from Carson City to Las Vegas courtesy of the 2010 Census and redistricting. The BIG question: Will Southern Nevada Republicans vote in the best interest of Southern Nevadans or will they vote with Northern Nevada Republicans? This will have HUGE ramifications for the 2014 midterm election. 2014 starts 11.07.2012. 2012PT you are awesome. Thank you for your service:)

  Nevada%20Precinct%20Captain

• [quote]Obama is a done deal and now we're hoping his coat-tails will lift Berkley to the Senate. Yes, based on everything I have seen in terms of polling data for the past 6 months as well as early voting reports, combined with the Harry Reid machine, leads me to believe that it is very unlikely Romney can win Nevada. Berkley seems to have gone down in recent weeks. She was tied about a month ago. Nate Silver now shows her losing. In order for her to win I think she will need to outperform her polls the way Harry Reid did against Sharron Angle, yes? [quote]2012PT you are awesome. Thank you for your service:) Likewise! Thank-you for your service to the Democrats in Nevada!

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Thanks to all of you and please continue making me feel better that the Republicans in Ohio cannot steal this election.

• Romney will win Nevada!!!

  KKKarl%20Rove%27s%20Kray%20Kray%20Prediction%20Map

• Rovey got Indiana and North Carolina wrong in 2008.

• WASHINGTON - PRESIDENT [Obama +7] Public Policy Polling Obama - 53 Romney -46 ---- WASHINGTON - SENATE [Cantwell +18] Public Policy Polling Cantwell (D) - 57 Baumgartner (R) - 39 ---- WASHINGTON - GOVERNOR [Inslee +2] Public Policy Polling Inslee (D) - 50 McKenna (R) -48 ---- Full polling article: November 03, 2012 [quote]WA-Gov close, Obama, gay marriage, and marijuana lead

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/wa-gov-close-obama-gay-marriage-and-marijuana-lead.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• [quote] In order for her to win I think she will need to outperform her polls the way Harry Reid did against Sharron Angle, yes? Yes. The Reid link you make is interesting. Harry built a Democratic Party in Nevada starting in 2007 leading up to the 2008 caucuses that never existed before. The Democratic Primary race was as much a motivator as the general election and when one Democratic Primary Debate was held at UNLV we has THE MOST FREAKING AMAZING Jefferson/Jackson banquet with EVERY Democratic candidate HERE. It was historical. We still talk about it. Harry maneuvered and positioned Nevada as an early caucus state and the way this energized the party was amazing. The Obamamania that engulphed the 2008 election was palpable. The 2010 midterm loss was enough to re-energize the base. The Democratic Party of the State of Nevada and the Clark County Democratic Party [which has a gay Chairman - Chris Miller] are now self sustaining political engines. Dare I say political machines? It is my honor to be a small part of both. I have my ticket to the unified watch party at Mandalay Bay on November 6th!

  Nevada%20Precinct%20Captain.

• Sam Stein said that Obama had 20,000 people at his Milwaukee rally today. And that's not even his biggest event of the day--he has a rally in VA this evening with Bill Clinton and Dave Matthews. Tons of excitement! Joe Biden tore it up today in CO. Probably his best speeches of the campaign. Michelle Obama continues to attract over-capacity crowds. They have to turn many, many people away--not enough room. Two events for her today in Ohio.

• Sure enough, Jon Husted is still working to try and steal Ohio from Obama.

• Wow, that is awesome R199.

• The closeness of Georgia and Arizona is going to surprise a lot of people on election night. Historic black turnout in GA, and historic Latino turnout in AZ. Both possible pickups for Democrats if Hillary runs in 2016.

• Nevada Precinct Captain, here are the latest numbers from Jon Ralston for Washoe County, where I think the Republicans have to do well if they want to win the state, yes? [quote]Nearly 130,00 votes have been cast early or by mail in Washoe County. Republicans lead Democrats by 589 votes.

  https://twitter.com/RalstonReports

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• I want to believe that Obama is smart enough to be on top of any shit that Ohio is pulling.

• Yes, R202, Bill Clinton won Georgia in 1992 and won Arizona in 1996, so it's possible that a Democratic nominee who doesn't have to face anti-black prejudice could win those states again.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Jon Husted needs to be thrown UNDER the jail.

• The DNC has SEVERAL THOUSAND lawyers mobilized.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• I agree R206. He is scum.

• [quote]Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted's directive is in violation of Ohio law. He has until Monday, November 5th to respond to the court. Why does he even try this shit?

• [quote]Nevada Precinct Captain, here are the latest numbers from Jon Ralston for Washoe County, where I think the Republicans have to do well if they want to win the state, yes? Do not confuse Nevada Republicans with regular Republicans. Do not forget that Nevada was seated at the BACK of the Republican Convention floor because the Nevada Delegation had so many Ron Paulines. I see more Ron Paul yard signs than Romney signs TODAY! They HATE Romney. Republicans up by 589 in Washoe County, piffle. My call: Obama +6.

  Nevada%20Precinct%20Captain.

• Democrats dispatch 2,500 lawyers into Ohio alone. Dept of Justice sends Vote monitors: Call if you see voter intimidation: 1-800-869-4499

• Gaaaahhh. I can't fucking stand this waiting. Thank heavens I smoke copious amounts of pot. Legally.

• Public Policy Polling [Obama +3] Obama - 50 Romney - 47 ---- [quote]Barack Obama has expanded his lead in our national tracking poll to 50-47, the first time either candidate has led by more than 2 pts

  https://twitter.com/ppppolls

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• For Nevada Precinct Captain: [quote]Washington Post: Nevada moves to lean Obama : )

  https://twitter.com/postpolitics

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Why doesn't RCP include the national PPP poll in its list of all national polls? Also when does the ABC/Washington Post come out? I was disturbed that it flipped back to Romney yesterday and I'd like it to flip back.

• Former McCain campaign strategist John Weaver is predicting 332 electoral votes for the President.

  http://twitter.com/JWGOP/status/264858512021155840

• I waiver between 332 and 303. I'm unsure of Florida.

• R215 - Because they are owned by Republicans, and want to have a thumb on the scale.

• Poll Troll, thanks again for compiling all these together in one thread - it's helpful. I was wondering if anyone could comment on the "turnout model" issue that gets raised sometimes by Republicans - that the polls are flawed because they're based on the premise that Democrats will have the same enthusiasm and turnout as they did in 2008. I read the following in the comments section of the FiveThirtyEight blog which suggests they have that premise backwards: "I am so sick of this ridiculous "turnout model" argument. Let's make this clear once and for all: pollsters are not using "turnout models" to predict the percentage of voters from each party: they are using screening questions to determine who is likely to vote, and then asking those people what party they belong to. Party ID of likely voters is not an assumption behind the poll, it's a poll result as much as which candidate will get the most votes is. Party ID is not a innate characteristic of the population; it is fluid, it moves with people's choice of candidate. This is why almost nobody weights for it. In fact, pretty much the only pollster out there who IS using a "turnout model" to "skew" his results is conservative darling Scott Rasmussen. How conservatives have been able to convince people that all of the major pollsters are doing something they're not while simultaneously praising Rasmussen for doing precisely what they're falsely accusing others of doing is to me one of the greatest mysteries of this campaign season." Is the above comment correct?

• The Princeton Election Consortium, run by Sam Wang (heh), is much more confident than 538. They have: Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 98.0%, Bayesian Prediction 99.8%

  http://election.princeton.edu

• R219, that comment is exactly correct. See the link below for a more detailed look at the issue from the Pew Research Center. A couple of quotes: [quote]Party identification is another thing entirely. Most fundamentally, it is an attitude, not a demographic. To put it simply, party identification is one of the aspects of public opinion that our surveys are trying to measure, not something that we know ahead of time like the share of adults who are African American, female, or who live in the South. Particularly in an election cycle, the balance of party identification in surveys will ebb and flow with candidate fortunes, as it should, since the candidates themselves are the defining figureheads of those partisan labels. Thus there is no timely, independent measure of the partisan balance that polls could use for a baseline adjustment. [quote] In a post-election survey we conducted in November 2008, we interviewed voters with whom we had spoken less than one month earlier, in mid-October. Among Republicans interviewed in October, 17% did not identify as Republicans in November. Among Democrats interviewed in October, 10% no longer identified as Democrats. Of those who declined to identify with a party in October, 18% told us they were either Democrats or Republicans when we interviewed them in November. Overall, 15% of voters gave a different answer in November than they did in October.

  http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/03/party-affiliation-and-election-polls/

  Paul

• Nancy Pelosi has a message for you: get out the message and get out the vote. Here's what she has to say today about our prospects for getting the House back: "It's all close. When we lost the House two years ago it was 250,000 votes that made the difference. You would have thought it was 90 zillion votes. But 250,000 across the country, whether it was 200 votes here, 800 there, 1,500 and then up to bigger margins. But it wasn't that many votes in the country that determined the majority in the House. So we're in a situation of too close to call races. Again, it's hard, it shouldn't be this hard because what's on the ballot is Medicare. Republicans have voted six times to repeal the Medicare guarantee, to turn it into a voucher. Women's hard fought rights are on the ballot, and yet women have responded to Romney because he says he's bipartisan, which isn't even factually correct. But we have to make sure everybody understands what the truth is. We must insist on the truth. A democracy is on the ballot. A dozen guys sitting around the table in Arizona or Texas or someplace putting up hundreds of millions of secret money? We cannot validate that as our system."

• Ann Selzer, the sage of Iowa polling, has Obama 5% ahead of Romney, 47 to 42.

  http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/11/03/iowa-poll-final-stretch-in-iowa-gives-edge-to-obama/article%3Fnclick_check%3D1

• Des Moines Register [Obama +5] Obama - 47 Romney - 42

• Mike Huckabee called my home today at 8:30PM. Just a few more days to go but I had to leave my name and number to get it removed from the Faith and Family (ugh!) service in case they decide to call every day up until Tuesday.

• Washington Post has five political "experts" weigh in with who will win the election and electoral vote final guesses. Two democrats, two republicans and one neutral party. Guess who they all predict will win...

  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/opinions/outlook-crystal-ball-contest/

• r226 has more than just five "experts" predicting. There is still an overwhelming favorite to win.

• R226 - I like the 10th grade class predictions. Cramer's an idiot, and the Republican strategists are engaged in wishful thinking.

• Apparently, that is a contest thingy r226. They even had a high school government class submit their picks.

• [quote]Cramer's an idiot, I won't argue that, but he is a Democrat, and he's about the only one on CNBC, so he gets points for that. He also was the only one at CNBC who came right out and said that Jack Welch and the other freepers were completely full of shit when they were screaming about how the jobs number was doctored, and that was nice to hear. Based on his guess I don't think he has a clear understanding of the Electoral College though.

• PPP MN poll: Obama 53, Romney 45

  http://twitter.com/ppppolls

  DR%20LULU%20FONG

• Cramer might understand the electoral college. He is picking a 10 pt popular vote for Obama. That might swing a few other states. Not sure it would get to 400.

• Some of those prediction at R226's link just don't add up realistically. Andrew Beyer has Romney winning with 284 EVs. The only map I could come up with at those counts has Romney winning NM, NC, FL, VA, OH, and NH while Obama takes NV, and IA. There's no way that map is coming true. Obama at 440 EVs isn't even a good joke.

  http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php%3Fmapid%3DbgAv

• Edit: I'd love Cramer to be right, don't get me wrong, but 440 just doesn't seem even remotely possible.

  http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php%3Fmapid%3DbgAQ

  R233

• r217 and anyone else: You can make your own electoral college maps at the link below. I'm perhaps overswayed by the enthusiasm of the FL early voting effort on Obama's side, but my map has 332 votes.

  http://graphics.wsj.com/MAPMAKER/%23

• MINNESOTA - PRESIDENT [Obama +8] Public Policy Polling Obama - 53 Romney - 45 ---- MINNESOTA - SENATE [Klobuchar +30] Public Policy Polling Klobuchar (D) 62 Bills (R) 32

  https://twitter.com/ppppolls

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• R235 - last I checked 332 EV is most likely based on Nate's model. The reason he's only at an average of 303 or so EV in Nate's model is that the distribution to skewed to the left.

• Michael Barone was just on FOX predicting a Romney win. Barone is a Senior Political Analyst for the Washington Examiner, where he writes a twice weekly column and contributes to their Beltway Confidential.

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Barone_(pundit)

• PENNSYLVANIA - PRESIDENT [Obama +6] Public Policy Polling Obama - 52 Romney - 46 ---- PENNSYLVANIA - SENATE [Casey +8] Public Policy Polling Casey (D) - 52 Smith (R)- 44

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-leads-in-pennsylvania-and-wisconsin.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• There's no way Romney will win PA.

• From your mouth to God's ears, R240. here's a whole thread full of PA nervous nellies!

  Philly Boy

• WISCONSIN - PRESIDENT [Obama +3] Public Policy Polling Obama - 51 Romney - 48 ----- WISCONSIN - SENATE [Baldwin +3] Public Policy Polling Baldwin (D) - 51 Thompson (R) - 48

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-leads-in-pennsylvania-and-wisconsin.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• R241 - there's no recent credible poll that has Romney tied or ahead in PA. Most are in the 4 to 8 pt range. Same in WI.

• The Poll Troll is working overtime. Baby, he is on the job until late into the wee hours Wednesday morning, 7th of November. Then it may be a well-deserved holiday. Thanks, Poll Troll.

• I agree that Poll Troll is the best. I always look forward to your posts.

• I don't understand all the talk about "turnout models." And undersampling of this audience or oversampling that one. Isn't the point of a scientifically replicable poll that you pick the right sample size and it will represent the larger population, in all its diversity?

• I'd like to thank Poll Troll, too!

• R246 - "Isn't the point of a scientifically replicable poll that you pick the right sample size and it will represent the larger population, in all its diversity?" Yes, if you were sampling the general population. The problem is that polls attempt to sample the population that votes. To do that you have to have an idea of you will vote, and there turnout is key.

• I really hope Baldwin is able to hold on and win the Senate race. Charlie Cook was on the Daily Rundown tonight and gave the edge to Thompson.

• Cook gave Thompson a slight, slight edge. Baldwin could easily take it. WI and VA senate races are so fucking close that Cook was reluctant to predict either of them.

• R258, that's true, but I was hoping to set a trap by waiting for R256 to tell me why Nate Silver is 'on his own'. Once R256 came up with an excuse, I was then going to expose it as a lie by revealing all the other pollsters, projections & models that show Nate Silver is actually just one among MANY who is predicting an Obama win. The Princeton Election Consortium, Huffington Post, TPM & even Real Clear Politics all show a win for Obama, not to mention countless others.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Is the Poll Troll the same as the Avatar troll? That would be so cool...

  LII

• Oh, good lord. The freeper trolls are actually trying to recycle the hilariously weak, failed attack on Obama as "a celebrity" that McCain failed to make work in 2008 in order to bash Silver? Seriously? Silver is a statistician. He's just an unassuming geek crunching numbers who has outworked all the chattering class in DC, and they can't stand it. Keep it up, guys. "He's a celebrity!" Good luck with that. It won't make a difference.

• R262, that's probably the stupidest response I've read. The poster was merely stating that he thought Silver would become a celebrity due to all the face time he's been getting-obviously a rare feat for a statistician. You're way off the mark.

• Please. We've been getting variations on that same post in at least half a dozen threads. "Nate Silver the loner, Nate Silver the celebrity." It's a lame attempt to push a meme that Nate is somehow "alone" in his predictions (he is not, they are overwhelmingly supported) and that he is a preening celebrity (he's the furthest thing from).

• ABC News/Wash Post [Tie] Obama - 48 Romney - 48 ---- President Obama Job Approval:\t Approve 50

  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121102.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Cook leans Republican in his predictions - not outrageously so, but enough that it can be impacting his judgment in close races. Just wanted to mention that. Thanks for the compliments above. Yes, after months and months of following the polls and posting them I will be glad when it's over in 3 days. It's been fun, but like Nate Silver I need a break. Silver looked sleep-deprived on Rachel Maddow last night and I'm not surprised. After Tuesday's election I will be going into polling retirement until 2014. : )

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• MICHIGAN - PRESIDENT [Obama +6] Public Policy Polling Obama - 52 Romney - 46 ---- MICHIGAN - SENATE [Stabenow +13] Public Policy Polling Stabenow (D) 55 Hoekstra (R) 42

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_1103.pdf

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• R251. But "Poll Troll," are you going to keep your name or come up with a new one...something just so we know you're still around, other than the standard "Anonymous" name?

• MAINE - PRESIDENT [Obama +7] Critical Insights Obama - 49 Romney - 42 ---- MAINE - SENATE - [King +16] Critical Insights\t King (I) 49 Summers (R) 33 Dill (D) 11

  http://www.pressherald.com/politics/poll-suggests-tightening-presidential-race-_2012-11-04.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +2] Columbus Dispatch Obama - 50 Romney - 48 ---- OHIO - SENATE [Brown +6] Columbus Dispatch Brown (D) 51 Mandel (R) 45

  http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/04/dispatch-poll-shows-ohio-a-toss-up.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• FLORIDA - SENATE [Nelson +6] TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon Nelson (D) 49 Mack (R) 43

  http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/timesbay-news-9herald-poll-bill-nelson-49-connie-mack-43/1259558

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• [quote]Nate Silver Update: 1:27 AM ET on Nov. 4 CHANCE OF WINNING Obama = 85.1%; Romney = 14.9% ---- ELECTORAL VOTE Obama = 306.9 Romney = 231.1 ---- POPULAR VOTE Obama = 50.6% Romney = 48.3%

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• I don't know who will win but if Obama is reelected, Nate Silver will become a superstar celebrity. He's pretty much on his own at this point.

• [quote]He's pretty much on his own at this point. How so? Please explain.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• The idiot at r256 keeps posting that - "Silver is a celebrity, he is on his own." He's NOT on his own. EVERY REPUTABLE POLLSTER AND JOURNALIST IS BACKING HIS CALCULATIONS. ACCEPT IT.

• YIKES! Calm down Poll Troll and r258. I'm NOT the anti-Silver troll and have never called him a celebrity before. I'm a huge devotee of FiveThirtyEight and by "on his own", I guess I meant to say he's put himself out there unlike other pollsters who will still have their reputations even if they're wrong. Sheesh.

  r256

• NATE SILVER IS THE NEW ANGELINA!!! ACCEPT THAT!!

  Koo Koo

• Hey, all these official polls are great and all. But I prefer to use election forecasts involving sports. Did you know that ever since 1984, the winner of the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers football game has forecast the winning president? Those years when LSU won, a Republican was elected president. The years Bama won, a Democrat was elected. Guess who won tonight? Alabama. ROLL TIDE!!!

  It%20was%20a%20great%20game%21%20Roll%20Tide%2C%20Roll%21

• Oops, I was so excited, I forgot the link. Here's hoping the LSU vs. Alabama predictor holds true again this year. It was an exciting game and made me happy. An Obama victory would make me even happier. This story does not mention another interesting sports forecast, the World Series. Going back to Jimmy Carter, the team that won the World Series was from a state that voted for the candidate who ultimately won the election. Am I saying that right? For instance, Ohio electoral votes went to Carter during the year when Cincinnati won the World Series. Carter won. This year, the Giants won. They are based in California. Obama will most likely win California and, if this predictor holds up, the presidency.

  http://keepingscore.blogs.time.com/2012/11/02/how-sports-can-forecast-the-presidential-election/

• [quote] My 82 yo mother has a popular number and I left a list of the people she supports next to the phone complete down-ticket. At a moments notice she will tell you who she supports for judge in any department let alone Congress and State Senator. She turns 83 this month. She's a feisty old Democrat! LOVE feisty old Democrats. Hugs to your mom! And I miss my grandma :( (Grandma Desmond was a supporter of Planned Parenthood and the Sierra Club well into her 90s)

• I'm going to go with the World Series prediction for my nonsensical poll. If either team won this year it would mean an Obama victory, but it's more decisive that SF won...my poor Tigers didn't have a chance.

• Serious question, Has a presidential nominee ever won the election without winning their home state or the home state of the VP? Romney has no chance in Michigan, no chance in Mass, and no chance in Wisconsin. I'm a bit young and I can not recall one time when a candidate won the election without either winning the state that put him in office or the state that put the VP in office.

• r273, no, it's never happened (if Wikipedia is accurate). The only US President to lose his home state (and he had two, NC and TN) was James Polk in 1844. His running mate, Vice President George Dallas, did win his home state of Pennsylvania. They won the popular vote against Henry Clay 49.5% to 48.1%. They won the Electoral College 170 to 105, when 138 were needed.

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major-party_United_States_presidential_candidates_who_lost_their_home_state

• Irish Online Bookmaker calls the election early, declares Obama the winner, and pays off all winning bets: PADDY POWER PAYS OUT ON OBAMA VICTORY Dublin, November 4th 2012: With still more than two days to go before America votes, Paddy Power, Europe's largest betting company, is paying out to punters who backed President Obama to win the US election. Despite the national polls showing voters remain largely undecided with nothing more than a sheet of ballot paper between the two candidates, Paddy Power believes it’s a done deal and that Obama is a nailed on certainty to win a second term. The gutsy call sees the bookmaker put their neck on the line for over $650,000. Prior to paying out, Obama’s odds fell to a low 2/9 and over the past months Paddy Power have seen 75% of money staked go Obama’s way. A Paddy Power spokesperson said: “Romney gave it a good shot and is doing well in the popular vote, but we suspect he’s had his moment in the sun and is likely to be remembered more for his legendary gaffes than Presidential potential. The overall betting trend has shown one way traffic for Obama and punters seemed to have called it 100% correct. Despite Romney appealing to the large evangelical and senior vote, America‘s sticking with black and cool.”

  http://www.businessinsider.com/paddy-power-pays-out-on-obama-victory-2012-11

  Money%20talks%20and%20bullshit%20walks

• Nice feel good newsbit, but, why would they do this? Does it save them money? Would their profits get small as more people bet on Obama?

• SUNDAY NOVEMBER 4 +++++++++++++ Politico/GWU [Tie] Obama - 48 Romney - 48 ----- 11/4/12 7:14 AM EST [quote]Independents are now split evenly, with Obama up 44 to 43 percent. A week ago, Romney had a 10-point advantage among this key demographic.

  http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83275.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• INDIANA - PRESIDENT [Romney +9] Rasmussen Reports Romney - 52 Obama - 43 ----- 4-point drop for Romney in Indiana from the last Rasmussen poll. Mourdock effect?

  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/indiana/election_2012_indiana_president

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Could someone explain the often heard criticism of pollsters sampling only people with landlines and its' possible implications for either candidate? I'm a bit uneasy and can't wait for this to be over.

• Honestly it is more of everyone else who has put Nate Silver out there R268 though. I guess because his blog is associated with the high profile NYT but every other group that does what he does has the same result. They have to be annoyed that Silver gets all the focus. If Silver is wrong, it just mean the pollsters who have been polling the states have been wrong.

• R279, more and more people no longer have a land line. And those who do not tend to be younger and more tech-savvy, and tend to vote Democratic. However, this is less of a problem these days as most pollsters now routinely include cell phones in their polling. Where this remains a problem for them is robo-calling polls, since such calls are banned for cell phones. TalkingPointsMemo took a look at the polls in Ohio a week ago and found that the robo-call polls showed a point or so less support for Obama than those polls that used live calls. The bottom line, for the most part, is that this isn't that much of an issue today and that the effect on the polls is pretty minimal. Where there is an effect, it would tend to favor Obama.

• R279, When you over-sample people with landlines, you wind up over-sampling older people (who tend to be more conservative, religious, etc.) My partner & I only have cell phones. My parents have cell phones and a landline. My grandparents only have a landline. My daughter doesn't even know what a landline is.

• Here's the link to the TalkingPointsMemo article on live vs. robo polling in Ohio. Quoting: [quote]TPM compared the two methods and found that polls conducted by a live interviewer, the method widely considered to be the gold standard, have shown the President with larger leads than polls conducted by automated calls, which are prohibited from contacting people through cell phones. Since early September, live polls have shown Obama with an average lead of 4.5 percentage points in Ohio while his average lead in robo-polls has been less than 2.

  http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/ohio-polls-live-automated.php

• I will be so glad when this is over, so I will never have to see another post with the following: 'I'm concerned' 'I'm uneasy' 'I'm worried' 'I'm nervous' 'Why is Nate Silver different than all the other polls?' 'My town has more Romney signs' 'The ladies in my Mom's bridge club say they like Ann better than Michelle, I'm scared' 'Rafalca is trending on Twitter, tell me that Obama is going to be okay' 'Tagg and Matt Romney beat Malia and Sasha Obama in a pickup game of basketball, hold me, the election is over!' 'The Bug Tussle Press Tribune Poll has Romney leading by 100 Points, Oh No they've predicted every election outcome since 1612'

• NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl [Obama +1] Obama - 48 Romney - 47 ---- [quote]Final national NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 48%, Romney 47% With just two days until Election Day, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney are running neck and neck nationally, according to the final national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll before the election. Obama gets support from 48 percent of likely voters, while Romney gets 47 percent. In the NBC/WSJ poll released two weeks ago, the two candidates were deadlocked at 47 percent each. While both Obama and Romney are running virtually even in this national poll, a majority of surveys from the battleground states – especially in the crucial battlegrounds of Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin – show the president with a slight advantage. The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Nov. 1-3 of 1,475 likely voters (including 443 cell phone-only respondents), and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.55 percentage points. The rest of the survey will be published at 6:30 p.m. ET.

  http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/04/14918470-final-national-nbcwsj-poll-obama-48-romney-47

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• MASSACHUSETTS - SENATE [Warren +4] Western New England University Warren (D) - 50 Brown (R) - 46 ---- [quote]Final WNE Poll: Elizabeth Warren holds 4-point edge over Sen. Scott Brown November 04, 2012 SPRINGFIELD - The Massachusetts Senate race between Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren remains close, according to a new poll, which shows the Harvard Law School professor holding a 4-point lead. The latest survey conducted by the Western New England University Polling Institute through a partnership with The Republican/MassLive.com, concluded that Warren is leading Brown, 50 percent to 46 percent, with the junior senator jumping one percentage point compared to the Sept. 28-Oct. 4 poll. The live telephone survey of 535 likely voters across Massachusetts was conducted between Oct. 26- Nov. 1 and has a 4 percent margin of error. Both candidates saw their overall favorability remain stable since the previous poll, despite additional weeks of negative campaigning and attacks on each side.

  http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/11/wne_poll_elizabeth_warren_hold.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• MASSACHUSETTS - PRESIDENT [Obama +18] Western New England University Obama - 58 Romney - 40

  http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/11/mitt_romneys_popularity_is_gro.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Rasmussen Reports [Tie] Obama - 49 Romney - 49 ---- Sunday, November 04, 2012 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows the race tied with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. These figures include both those who have already voted and those likely to vote. Obama leads among those who have already voted, while Romney leads among those deemed likely to vote. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters are projected to be Democrats and 37% Republicans. Both candidates do well within their own party, while Romney has a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters. One key to the outcome on Election Day will be the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate. In 2008, approximately 74% of voters were white. The Obama campaign has argued that this will fall a couple of percentage points in 2012 with an increase in minority voting. Others have noted the increased enthusiasm among white voters and the decreased enthusiasm among Hispanic voters and suggest that white voters might make up a slightly larger share of the electorate this time around. It is significant because Romney attracts 58% of the white vote, while Obama has a huge lead among non-white voters. If the white turnout increases on Election Day, it will be very difficult for the president to win. If it decreases, it will be very difficult for him to lose. Rasmussen Reports currently estimates that white turnout will be similar to the 2008 totals. Black voters, however, are far more likely to have voted already than any other segment of the electorate. Just over one-out-of-four Americans (27%) say the upcoming election has negatively affected their personal relationship with a friend or family member. The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney 206. The magic number needed to win the White House is 270. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio,Virginia and Wisconsin. “It’s somewhat surprising that heading into the final weekend of the election season, we are unable to confidently project who is likely to win the White House,” Scott Rasmussen writes in his latest weekly newspaper column. “But the race for the White House remains close because of the economy. Most Americans do not feel better off than they were four years ago, but most are not feeling worse off either.”

  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• 'Rafalca is trending on Twitter, tell me that Obama is going to be okay' I'm only trending on Twitter because I'm a star now, R284. I've been campaigning for Obama on Chincoteague Island - that bitch Misty might vote for Mitt, and I had to put an end to her electoral equine encephalitis.

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misty_of_Chincoteague

  Rafalca

• Rana Foroohar, TIME Magazine's assistant editor, predicted last night on Chuck Todd's show that Democrats would retake the House. This is why it's so important that everyone vote, whether you live in a solid blue or red state. So many times just a few votes determines who wins these House seats.

• Rasmussen: Obama Job Approval at 51 percent Believe Ras or not, it is the first time since the Democratic Convention in Charlotte that Obama's been at 51 two consecutive days. For Ras, Obama is at about his best position since the Charlotte DNC Bounce, a mere 1.5 days before Election Day begins.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Yes, we horses understand this 2012 polling madness all too well... The polls must be kept just and fair in Ohio! Trample Jon Husted!

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poll_evil

  Rafalca

• @RafalcaRomney: Ugh. President Romney. #November7thTweetFromHell

  http://twitter.com/RafalcaRomney/status/264945832107855872/photo/1

• Watching CNN online New Hampshire rally. Obama & Clinton bring SEXY back. The music they're playing is "Give me one more chance, let me be your lover tonight!" Yeah!

• Further to what Lulu posted above, here is the link to the Rasmussen Presidential Approval Index where it shows Obama at 51% Approval for the past 2 days in a row:

  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• That's great, R294. Going to watch now!

• Thanks for everything, Poll Troll. These threads have been fascinating. Maybe you've done this before, but could you weigh in on how "margin of error" works? I hear people on television constantly refer to "within the margin of error" as if it were a tie. But my understanding has been that, for example, our guy having a two-point lead with a 2.5 margin of error means that, while it's statistically possible the other guy is really up a half-point, it would be equally likely the gap is actually 4.5 points in favor of our guy; the reported two-point lead is likely much more accurate than either extreme. Am I misunderstanding that?

• [quote]I don't know who will win but if Obama is reelected, Nate Silver will become a superstar celebrity. He's pretty much on his own at this point. That is a ridiculous statement. Many people are forecasting Obama will win. Nate Silver IS more on his own in saying that it will be an easy Obama victory along with Paul Krugman who wrote today "You're stupid if you thin it is close." If Obama wins easily, then it will be a big victory for Nate Silver (and his supporter Paul Krugman). If it is close, with Romney winning competitive states outside of NC and Florida, then it will be a negative for Nate Silver's reputation.

  http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/reporting-that-makes-you-stupid/.

• [quote]Rana Foroohar, TIME Magazine's assistant editor, predicted last night on Chuck Todd's show that Democrats would retake the House I haven't seen anything that would indicate this happening, but how glorious would it be? On another note, George Stephanopolous this morning said that only 32% of white non-college men and women favor Obama. That means 2/3 of them are going to vote for the man whose policies would virtually wipe them out. Amazing.

• r297, if PT12 is otherwise occupied, here's Nate: There are essentially three reasons that a poll might provide an inaccurate forecast of an upcoming election. The first is statistical sampling error: statistical error that comes from interviewing only a random sample of the population, rather than everyone. This is the type of error that is represented by the margin of error reported alongside a poll and it is reasonably easy to measure. If you have just one poll of a state, the statistical sampling error will be fairly high. For instance, a poll of 800 voters has a margin of error in estimating one candidate’s vote share of about plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. In a two-candidate race, however, the margin of error in estimating the difference between the candidates (as in: “Obama leads Romney by five points”) is roughly twice that, plus or minus seven percentage points, since a vote for one candidate is necessarily a vote against the other one.

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/%23more-37099

• Education is important, R299.

• One thing I hope will happen after the election is that the DOJ will vigorously pursue the cases of voter suppression, illegal dirty tricks (like mailings with the wrong date on them), and other FEDERAL crimes, and bring charges against both elected officials who ordered voter suppression, and the consultants and businesses who actually did it. Jail time!

• I do too, R302. We need to change the voting laws in this country to prevent stuff like this but it's not going to happen with a Republican Congress.

• Agree, R302, we shouldn't return to complacency after the election. But this might require citizen advocacy, so we should all be prepared to get involved.

• I think Democrats' #1 priority in the years to come is overruling Citizens United. It is more of a threat to our democracy than anything else. It will be tough but lying the foundation by appointing liberal judges at the local, state and federal level. We have seen how destructive CU has been.

• As long as we're targeting issues, can we add Churches and their political agendas to the list? It's time for some of them to lose their tax exempt status.

• [quote]One thing I hope will happen after the election is that the DOJ will vigorously pursue the cases of voter suppression, illegal dirty tricks (like mailings with the wrong date on them), and other FEDERAL crimes, and bring charges against both elected officials who ordered voter suppression, and the consultants and businesses who actually did it. Jail time! I agree R302, we need to stop it on ALL fronts. There have been terrible reports on both sides

• They're not going to touch churches. Both sides are too dependent on them. Repubs need the evangelical churches and Dems need the black churches.

• Thanks r274. I needed some info to back up a friendly debate I have with a repub colleague.

• In addition to Citizens United being reversed, the filibuster needs to be scrapped. The Repugs have abused it to the point that it's become a tool of obstruction rather than a legitimate tool for the minority to have its voice.

• Doesn't the country have to pass a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United? I don't think Congress can do it.

• I am assuming that the filibuster is in the rules of the Senate. To get rid of it, would they need a simple majority or 2/3? And is it so embedded in the traditions of the body that they would never touch it?

• r311 If you have a friendly Court and the right case, Citizens United could be overturned. It's what the rightwing want with abortion laws. They want to stack the Court with the likes of Scalia and when an abortion comes along, Roe v. Wade is gone. Don't forget that Brown v. Board of Education overturned Plessy v Ferguson, thus ending Jim Crow.

• Montana has a referendum on their ballot - to get rid of "outside' money. According to Nate, it is going to pass. Even though Montana will go Romney.

• It will be a meaningless gesture as Federal law trumps state law. You would either need a new Supreme Court that overturns the ruling or a constitutional amendment. Neither is on the horizon of happening in the future. As much as it sucks we need to accept that outside money isn't going anywhere soon.

• No one ever said it was going to be easy or that it would happen next week, but within the next decade, it could happen r315. If Obama wins and 2-3 seats are opened, I see CU being overturned. It's just bad law that has had severe effect on our political system.

• I'm about to piss off r284 some more. But I saw this post by an obvious Romney supporter on the Guardian site and was wondering if its true: [italic]For what it's worth Obama drew a paltry 2800 people at his Hilliard rally yesterday. A Stevie Wonder rally in Obama's benefit today up north brought a crowd of less than 200 people. Friday, down in West Chester, Ohio, Romney--who I can never imagine framing the election in terms of "revenge"--drew a crowd of around 30,000. In 2008 in Cleveland, Obama drew a crowd of about 80,000. This year he managed about 7,000. I think something extraordinary is going to happen in a few days. I could be wrong. My evidence may be purely anecdotal, but I think something is going to happen.[/italic] WHAT THE FUCK IS THE MATTER WITH OHIO VOTERS?

• R317, that just sounds like blatant lies. At the moment, it seems like Republicans talking and lying are pretty much the same thing.

• So you ignore stats on polling and reports of large rallies in OH to fret over one guy's drivel in the Guardian? Riiiight...

• Take it easy, r137. West Chester is Boner's home so all of the idiots were out in full force. Don't take it as any sort of "sign".

• As Nate silver says, state polls have a pretty good record for accuracy over the last couple of decades. They've only been wrong in three instances, and I'm absolutely certain that one of those, Ohio 2004, was stolen by the Republicans.

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nov-3-romneys-reason-to-play-for-pennsylvania/%3Futm_source%3Dtwitterfeed%26utm_medium%3Dtwitter

• [quote]Romney--who I can never imagine framing the election in terms of "revenge"--drew a crowd of around 30,000 Actually, if you look this up, what you quickly find is that Romney, as usual, exaggerated the size of the crowd. In this case, he doubled it.

• [quote]To get rid of it, would they need a simple majority or 2/3? Each new Congress gets to establish the rules for the two-year term. These rules are, if memory serves me correctly, set by majority rule, not by 60 votes or by 67 votes. [quote]And is it so embedded in the traditions of the body that they would never touch it? Pretty much. That's why Reid backed off last time, after getting "assurances" from Republicans that they would behave themselves. (Yeah, right...) There will be another push this time to reform the rules; I have no idea whether that will work.

• I read that as well on CNN of all places, R322.

• Romney's done more than double his imaginary crowds. If that asshole drew more than 7500 people to an appearance that would be like the second coming of the Angel Maroni or whoever the fuck he is. Rmoney buses his people in from other locations, feeding them, housing them, and sometimes paying them. They incentivize the gatherings. I have also witness regularly that the media consistently underestimates and downplays the crowds who are still turning out for Obama. No, he isn't drawing crowds of 70,000, but he is often definitely drawing upwards of 20-30 thousand easily. The media recently, laughably pointed out that the crowds are smaller. Unfortunately they peddled that meme in Wiconsin and Virginia where Obama had huge crowds. We're talking way more than 20-30 thousand people.When ever they estimate Obama' crowd I automatically add at least 10,000 depending where he is.

• R300, I hope Nate Silver isn't hedging his bets here. He's all in at this point, saying that Obama will win all of the swing states except NC and FL. He's saying that FL is going to be the closest state by far - essentially a toss-up. He's also saying that Obama will win all of his states easily (defined as by more than 3 points) except VA and CO. He built his reputation in 2008 by getting 49 of 50 states right. Everyone knew Obama would win. His reputation will either continue to build or be damaged based on how close the predictions that I summarized above actually turn out on Tuesday.

• R326 it is as if you are deliberately ignoring everything. Nate isn't a pundit. He isn't pulling his predictions out of his ass. If Nate is wrong, the polls are wrong.

• My grandfather is a bundler for Romney and he watches Fox News all day so yeah he is a little whacked out. When I called him today, he was blathering on about the election and when I told him it wasn't looking good for his candidate, he disagreed. he said that he had just gotten off a conference call for major donors saying that Obama's comment to his supporters about "voting is the best revenge" scores very negatively so Romney has an ad coming out today highlighting that comment.....something about it "testing better than any ad so far for Romney". It sounds like it is playing to racial stereotypes to me. He told me not to spread this news, which is why I am posting it on here.

• R326, That's what *I'm* saying, but not based on what Nate Silver says, but based on aggregates of nearly every poll on the market. Go the right-leaning sites like RCP and CNN and see for yourself. One caveat: I don't think Obama will win Virginia easily.

  Not%20R300

• [quote]it is as if you are deliberately ignoring everything. Nate isn't a pundit. He isn't pulling his predictions out of his ass. If Nate is wrong, the polls are wrong. I disagree. Nate Silver weights the individual state polls based on his perception of the quality of the pollster. He also has his other factors that he incorporates at the state level. As a result, he comes to different conclusions than one would reach by simply averaging polls. For example, Nate has Obama winning the popular vote by 2.3%. If you look at the list of national polls on RCP (linked below), only one of the last eleven polls has Obama ahead by more than 1 point and the average is Obama ahead by 0.2 points. Sorry, Nate is all on on a bigger Obama victory than would be indicated by simply averaging polls. Why is this troubling to you? I would think that it is good news.

  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

• R330 surely you've noticed the electorate college map on the link you provided. That's the "good news."

• It is not troubling me. It is just that Nate's methodology is quite clear. In fact, many people who do the same thing as Nate, have said that his model is too conservative. What I don't understand is why so many of you hate Nate Silver for doing something anyone with a basic knowledge of politics and stats could do.

• Because he's the loudest of those saying what the "haters" don't want to hear.

• r328, it's time to wheel your Grandpappy Simpson back off to the home.

• R328, the thing is, I think both candidates are past the point where anything they say is going to make a difference. It's two days until the election. A significant portion of the country has already voted early and mailed in their absentee ballots. I guess there might still be undecided voters out there (how motivated are they to vote, exactly?), or who can switch their support on a whim. But it's well past the point when a TV ad that just "tests well" (and doesn't show actual footage of the candidate murdering someone and drinking the victim's blood) can 1) make it into the news cycle, 2) be seen by enough undecided voters, or 3) be effective enough to sway opinion after the candidates have already debated three times, to have any appreciable impact on the election. Romney's campaign has to hope that there's a rare voter who just happens to catch the ad tomorrow and have it switch his/her position before s/he votes the next day. What are the chances? I mean, it's not like his campaign is going to tell donors to pack up and go home and not give money, so they have to give some positive news. But it sounds a bit like a Hail Mary and grasping at straws at this point. And I'm sure they know it: when they have to tout metrics from TV ads, rather than metrics and numbers from actual polls, they're not in a good position. An Obama call to donors just has to say "You want metrics? We consistently lead in the vast majority of every pubilc poll for swing states."

• In summary, at this stage in the game I'm pretty sure TV ads and public messaging aren't as important for either campaign as ground-level get out the vote operations and making sure people get to the polls (and aren't prevented from voting once they do). And from all appearances Obama and the Democrats have been working pretty effectively at that.

  R335

• It really is astonishing how steadfast the Republicans now are in predicting a Romney landslide. Yes, they always said he would win, but now it's, "He's going to sweep the floor with Obama." Seems to me that would suppress the Republican turnout rather than motivate it. Maybe they're laying the groundwork for an explanation of Romney's loss -- "We got so overconfident that too many of stayed home."

• R337, isn't there some psychological phenomenon where if you're presented with contradictory evidence to a firmly-held belief, instead of moderating your position it makes you dig in even further? Like, with Christians who are presented with dinosaur bones and instead of saying, "maybe the Bible isn't literal and God's creation goes even further back - how wonderful!" instead say, "God put those bones there 5,000 years ago to test the non-believers!" So the more polls come out in favor of Obama, the only fall-back position available to still believe in a Romney win is that every poll is systematically wrong and doesn't capture the huge hidden groundswell of support secretly waiting there for Romney on Election Day.

• For the record there are two polls today that show a 50 to 47 lead for Obama. They are PPP an d Pew. RCP doesn't include PPP national but just state polls. I am not sure why.

• R337 - Repugs want to promote the idea that Romney is going to win to encourage high turn out so even if he loses, other repub candidates will benefit from the turn out. If you think your guy is going to lose, why stand in line for 1hr+ to vote for someone congressman you really don't give a shit about?

• The Pew poll has Obama 50, Romney 47 nationally. Their last poll had a tie. Obama momentum, baby! PS - this matches the PPP poll exactly

• But, 340, aren't you even more likely to stand in line for 1hr+ if you think the presidential election is very close and your vote is going to make a difference?

• Huge crowd in Florida for Obama today.

  http://edition.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html%3Fstream%3D4

• Yes R342, I agree with you - I just meant to say that there are reasons for repugs to push the idea that Mitt is winning even if they know that really isn't true.

• That Pew poll has 3800 person sample size. It also says the Obama has more very strong support than Ronney does. That's a big indicator of who will the election.

  R341

• It's taken RCP forever to come around, but they now show Obama up in the popular vote by .04. They've long shown Obama as winning the electoral college quite handily.

  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

• Magical thinking is second nature to Republican fundies.

  Anomynous%20

• not a poll, but i loved this part: "With the campaign stops by the former Governor, it is clear, they are trying desperately to salvage what they can, and not a complete blow-out. The trash-talk by the Romney campaign is to prevent their supporters from staying home entirely, with the result being a massive loss in house and senate races."

  http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/11/03/leaked-ryan-post-election-job-plans-dont-mention-vice-presidency/

• Jim Cramer predicts 440 EVs for Obama:

  http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/11/everyone-thinks-jim-cramers-election-prediction-crazy-pants-insane/58673

• Reuters: Obama - 48 Romney - 44 A 3-point jump for the president compared to the same poll’s results on Saturday.

• Final Pew Poll Shows 13 Point Gender Gap Women favor President Barack Obama to Mitt Romney by a 13-point margin going into Tuesday's election, according to the Pew Research Center's final election poll released on Sunday. The findings reflect a dramatic shift toward Obama since the days after the first presidential debate, when a Pew poll showed Romney and Obama tied among women. Men, by contrast, prefer Romney by 50 to 42 percent, an 8-point margin consistent with recent poll results. The gender gap is expected to be a major determining factor in the election. In 2008, Obama's defeat of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was largely attributed to his 7-point advantage among women.

• I was listening to the PEW Research guy on NPR just a few minutes ago. He admits that this is a difficult election to call, but that they got the last two elections right.

• Romney thinks he's going to win: “If the president were to be reelected,” Romney began to tell the audience of about 6,000 supporters gathered at the cavernous International Exposition Center halfway through his stump speech. He was interrupted by boos. “It’s possible, but not likely,” he added.

  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/11/04/romney-obama-victory-possible-but-not-likely/%3Fwprss%3Drss_social-politics-rss%26Post+generic%3D%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost

• I we're getting worked up about the Republicans pretending, and really it's no big deal. In fact, I respect them for it. You have to pretend that your candidate has a shot. To do anything else is an insult to the voters, the campaign workers, the donors, and everyone else who has supported him for the last year or more. He's also the head of the ticket, so you put on your best game face and hope that your confidence can help the rest of the ticket. I wish they would do it with a bit more grace, but that's modern politics.

• Local Ohio Newspaper Endorses Obama In 2012 After Endorsing McCain In 2008 The Chillicothe Gazette, Ohio’s oldest newspaper, endorsed President Barack Obama on Sunday, though the paper had supported Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential election.

• Sam Stein: Obama Draws 23,000 In Florida After enduring cold temperatures during a morning rally in Concord, N.H., on Sunday, President Barack Obama jumped on a plane and headed down to sunny Hollywood, Fla., where the temperature was 81 degrees Fahrenheit, for his next speech. It was the same address: part mockery of the "sales job" being pulled by Mitt Romney, part his own salesmanship of what the next four years would be like if he is reelected. And, as he has on other occasions, the president pointed to his own blemishes as evidence that he's a committed champion for the right causes. "I've got the scars to prove it," he said of how he's fought for "change" on a whole host of legislative fronts. "I've gotten gray hair doing it." What was most noteworthy about the speech, like the one in Concord, was the size of the crowd. The fire marshal estimated that 23,000 attended the Florida rally, and 14,000 attended the New Hampshire one. There's been a lot of chatter about an enthusiasm gap between Romney and Obama. But the president is routinely outdrawing his opponent. It hasn't been by the same margins he outdrew John McCain in 2008, but this weekend at least, the enthusiasm has been there.

• Bill Clinton, Richard Trumka To Stump For Obama In Pittsburgh AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka will join former President Bill Clinton in rallying for Obama in Pittsburgh Monday morning, giving the president a boost in what's become a tighter race than expected in Pennsylvania.

• Early Voting Lines In Cleveland Run For Blocks In The Cold CLEVELAND -- Early voters here are waiting in line for more than two hours in the cold to beat the rush on Election Day. Surprisingly, the scene feels more like a party than an agonizing wait. The Jackson Five is blasting from speakers set up on a street corner. Volunteers with various groups are handing out food and warm drinks -- Obama campaign volunteers showed up with 50 pizzas to try to keep people content as they stand in the 41-degree weather. A rap group is also walking up and down the line, rapping, "no more drama, vote for Obama."

• Ralston Sees Obama Winning Nevada By Four The Dean of Nevada politics, Jon Ralston, has made his final predictions for the 2012 election, and he has Obama winning the state by a 50-46 margin. This is a safe bet. By every metric -- early voting, voter registration, polling -- Obama is leading in the state. So Ralston isn't exactly going out on a limb here. Still, because he knows the state better than any other reporter, his predictions are worth reading, especially with respect to the Senate race in the state between Sen. Dean Heller (R) and Rep. Shelley Berkley (D), which he still sees as a nail biter.

• R353, honestly what do you expect him to say? "Pack up and go home, I've lost. Don't bother showing up on Election Day, whether for me or any other Republican candidates. But even after spending hundreds of millions of dollars of your money, please donate more money to my campaign anyway so I can cover all my outstanding vendor and legal bills and don't have the campaign go into debt!" I don't understand why it's a news story when a politican shows up at a campaign rally and expresses confidence that s/he's going to win, all evidence to the contrary.

• GREAT news R356, Romney had a crowd of 6,000 yesterday.

• You're welcome, bitches.

  Woman

• McCaskill Leads Akin By 4: PPP Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) has a four-point edge over Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) in the Missouri Senate race, according to a PPP survey released Sunday. Mitt Romney has an eight point lead in the state. Twenty-nine percent of voters view Akin favorably, while 42 percent approve of McCaskill's job performance.

• Obama Sets New Hampshire Political Record The first stop of the second-to-last day of the presidential campaign brought with it a new political record in the politically rich state of New Hampshire. The Obama campaign drew 14,000 people to an outdoor rally in Concord. That was the biggest crowd for a campaign event in Granite State history, the Obama campaign said. The prior record seems to have been the 8,500 people that Obama drew to an Oct. 27 rally in Nashua. Following that rally, WMUR political analyst James Pindell reportedly said it was the largest campaign gathering the state had ever seen. Obama's Sunday morning event -- which featured speeches from both him and former president Bill Clinton -- shattered that total. New Hampshire is a small state. The capital, Concord, has a population of less than 43,000. But it has also witnessed its share of campaign moments, owing to the tightly contested primaries every four years and its status as a toss-up state in the general election. So for Obama to have set the record there says something about his continued appeal in the state, especially since he has had difficulty drawing crowds of the size he drew as a presidential candidate four years ago. For the record, the weather in Concord on Sunday morning was cold, but not painfully so for that part of the country. At the time that Obama started speaking, weather.com had the temperature at 48 degrees Fahrenheit.

• These big crowds must mean SOMETHING....

• Obama has the momentum!

• Great news, R341!

• Sometimes, Garry Trudeau and 'Doonesbury' gets it so right.

  http://assets.amuniversal.com/cb194a50fe19012ff664001dd8b71c47%3Fwidth%3D900.0

• You think Florida's Obama voters aren't passionate and motivated this year? Check this out... Yesterday, while people had to wait in line for four, five and even NINE hours to vote, Florida Dems filed a complaint that Miami-Dade needed to extend early voting by another day. Miami-Dade did open extend early voting today but they only had one voting booth and a couple of workers. Even though they promised to be open for five hours, they locked the doors after one hour because they ran out of ballots. There was a HUGE public outcry so they reopened the doors by 3pm. Take a look at the link to see what it looks like now....

  http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021710713

• If CNN has to admit that Dems are doing well in Ohio, things aren't good for GOP because CNN goes out of its way to push them: [quote]‏@PeterHambyCNN Dems in Ohio blowing up early vote today in blue counties like Cuyahoga, Lucas, Franklin. Some GOP anxiety about it.

• Good always wins out over evil in the end.

• Well, except when it doesn't R371 (2000 and 2004) - you always have to fight for it, down to every last vote.

• Uh oh, Williard is toast. The just released final Pew Poll shows Obama leading Romney by 3%. Pew is the largest and most authoritative nationwide poll of likely voters, and nailed the 2000 and 2008 results -- it predicted the 2004 outcome exactly and understated Obama's margin by only 1% in 2008.

  http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/04/obama-gains-edge-in-campaigns-final-days/

• Interesting statistic from @PeterHambyCNN [quote] Obama campaign says they have made 125,646,479 voter contacts this cycle. Team Romney has made 50 million.

• Does anyone know if the huge turnouts in OH and FL mean that the Likely Voter model is probably understated and that the Registered Voter model is understated? It is clear that all the suppression tactics in OH and FL have pissed people off so much they are determined to vote. This is great. As long as their is not fraud that will prohibit votes from being counted and not 'flipped.'

• OMG! Check out the photos of early voting lines today in Ohio and Florida. Republican voter suppression is backfiring big time.

  http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2012/11/04/1136701/why-the-lines-are-so-long-in-florida-and-ohio/%3Fmobile%3Dnc

• It's spelled "Cincinnati" you fucking idiots! If you can't spell, how can I trust your info?

• Pew Research [Obama +3] Obama - 50 Romney - 47 ---- 3-point increase for Obama from the last Pew poll in October

  http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/11-4-12%20Election%20Weekend%20Release.pdf

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• It's beautiful, r376! Beautiful!

• Politico's Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen declare that Obama will not have a mandate if he wins because he didn't carry the white vote. Apparently, only white men are real Americans.

• I do think Obama purposely flopped in the first debate to get people scared and into the voting booths. Looks like it worked.

• R381 - That's silly. Had Obama done well in the first debates (as well as in the others), it would have been a near landslide.

• I find Politico's Mike Allen to be creepy.

• ABC News/Wash Post [Obama +1] Obama - 49 Romney - 48 ---

  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121103.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• There's a new PPP Ohio poll! Post it, Poll Troll! Post it!

• ARIZONA - PRESIDENT [Romney +7] Public Policy Polling Romney - 53 Obama - 46 ----- ARIZONA - SENATE [Flake +5] Public Policy Polling Flake (R) 51 Carmona (D) 46

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZMT_1104.pdf

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Ohio poll - 52-47 Obama!! PPP. Poll Troll can do the official version.

• OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +5] Public Policy Polling Obama - 52 Romney - 47 ---- OHIO - SENATE [Brown +10] Public Policy Polling Brown (D) - 54 Mandel (R) - 44 ---- [quote]Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 52-47 on our final Ohio poll. Up 60-39 with early voters

  https://twitter.com/ppppolls

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Gallup: Obama up by 16 with women, down by 10 with men in Swing States, yet Race TIED Huh, unless they expect a huge lopsided turnout of men this year, how can this be? "Obama has improved his standing in the past few weeks by regaining support among women in the swing states. The gender gap — that is, the disparity between the way men and women vote — stands at historically high levels after narrowing in the early October. Obama now leads among women by 16 points; Romney leads among men by 10."

  http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/04/obama-romney-swing-states-poll-/1680827/

• R383: He gives me the creeps, too. And he never blinks.

• Gallup's numbers look like they have been off for most of this year. The important change to note in their latest poll is that Obama is up and Romney is down compared to the +5 lead for Romney they had a week ago. It's the trendlines that are important, rather than the specific poll numbers. All National tracking polls are showing a movement towards Obama this weekend.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• [quote]I find Politico's Mike Allen to be creepy. Maybe he's related to George Allen of Virginia . . .

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• How close to you think Democrats will come in the House? I would give anything to see that crybaby Boehner hand over the speaker's gavel to Nancy Pelosi again.

• [quote]Huh, unless they expect a huge lopsided turnout of men this year, how can this be? Likely, it can't. But given that the best that Rasmussen and Gallup could do was a tie while everyone else is showing an Obama advantage, the evidence clearly mounts for an Obama victory.

• One day of campaigning left, folks!

• David Gergen, CNN: [quote]Polls suggest President got important hurricane bump heading onto this weekend.

  https://twitter.com/David_Gergen

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Dana Bash and John King were just saying that there's FAR more enthusiasm for Romney than there is for Obama. God I hate CNN.

• Poll Troll - is the Gallup poll swing states only or national?

• R398, apparently it is for swing states. I thought it was national. Apparently the Gallup national poll is coming tomorrow. Don't think it makes a big difference though as their numbers are off compared to many other pollsters.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• R398, that was a swing states poll: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

• Ohio's souls go to the polls as churchgoers heed call on 'historic' day Pro-Obama congregants in Cleveland wait in line for 'as long as it takes' to take part in long-held election tradition

  http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/04/ohio-souls-to-the-polls-election

• Dana Bash and John King need to fall in a hole somewhere and never be heard from again.

• I hope Gallup's reputation is finally destroyed after this election. They are the worst of the worst.

• CNN has a banner up saying their poll has it at 49% to 49%.

• Even reading their own CNN polls it says that the enthusiasm gap is the same. Dana and John are idiots. I just returned from visiting a freeper site. They keep scaring me. They are convinced that everything is coming up Romney based on the internals and all polls being wrong. I know it's bullshit but it still panics me and I become a concern troll. I should just stay away from those sites until Tuesday. I want to read one of them saying, "Oh fuck." Actually one or two seemed to be starting.

• CNN has it tied at 49.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• I had to turn off the Sunday shows this morning for the same reason. Whatever happens, happens. I would DEFINITELY stay away from those sites.

• KSTP/SurveyUSA: Obama increases his lead from 7 to 11 in Minnesota Tom Hauser, Chief Political Reporter for KSTP-TV St. Paul / Minneapolis KSTP/SurveyUSA: New poll shows Obama leading Romney 52% to 41%. Margin of Error +-4.%. Obama lead was 7 points earlier this week. Now 11.

  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/04/1155595/-Minnesota-O-11-SurveyUSA

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Judging by the turnout at Romney rallies, Republican enthusiasm is sky high. His support dwarfs Obama's. This is looking bad for the Dems.

• MINNESOTA - PRESIDENT [Obama +11] KSTP/SurveyUSA Obama - 52 Romney - 41 ---- [quote]KSTP/SurveyUSA: Obama increases his lead from 7 to 11 in Minnesota Tom Hauser, Chief Political Reporter for KSTP-TV St. Paul / Minneapolis KSTP/SurveyUSA: New poll shows Obama leading Romney 52% to 41%. Margin of Error +-4.%. Obama lead was 7 points earlier this week. Now 11.

  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/04/1155595/-Minnesota-O-11-SurveyUSA

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Oh, please, R409, can't you troll any better than that? A good troll has to be subtle, not a really stupid lie.

• I hate to ask this but r405, are any of the freepers considering that Rmoney is going to lose? It's strange because here and other lib sites are at least discussing other possibilities but the freepers seem so out-of-touch that they can't even consider the facts. What a fucked up narrow-minded world they must live in.

• That's right R409, when the latest polls are showing momentum for Obama, you change the subject by talking about rally crowds. Are you sure he didn't pay them to be there like his campaign's decision to create fake donations so he could get a photo op after Sally the storm hit?

• And aren't a lot of those photoshopped anyway? IIRC, I've seen several Rmoney rallies that are blatantly photoshopped to show twice the crowd.

• Didn't want to post this as a new thread, but one of the things which worries me is that Romney is running this race as a means of winning the White House only as a means to gain some sort of profit for the LDS. There was even an article from the other day which said two of Romney's sons met with wealthy entrepeneurs (sp?) in Russia and elsewhere with the promise to open up more trade once their father was elected. Of course, the President can't personally make any profit from the office but would there be anything stopping Romney from making LDS-friendly steps?

• [quote] I just returned from visiting a freeper site. They keep scaring me. They are convinced that everything is coming up Romney based on the internals and all polls being wrong. I know it's bullshit but it still panics me and I become a concern troll. I should just stay away from those sites until Tuesday. Do any of them ever mention the EC, or are they pretending that we elect our president via some other, Romney-favorable method?

• PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls Our final Virginia poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47

  https://twitter.com/ppppolls

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls Our final Virginia Senate poll finds Tim Kaine leading George Allen 52-46

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• INDIANA - SENATE [Donnelly +2] YouGov Donnelly (D) - 47 Mourdock (R) - 45 ---- INDIANA - PRESIDENT [Romney +7] YouGov Romney - 51 Obama - 44

  http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/11/04/indiana/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• R380: according to the Constitution, that's true. Which is why strict constitutionalists are full of shit.

• [quote]CNN Poll: White Vote - 57% Romney, 40% Obama Romney probably needs to be at 60%, or maybe even as high as 62% of the White vote, in order to win.

  http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/50971607ebcabf0e460000be

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• [quote]TPM Electoral Scoreboard: Obama: 303, Romney: 191

  http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Nate Silver update! 306.4 EV 85.5% CHANCE OF WINNING

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Early voting states in swing states and today's polls indicate the Black and Latin vote are very energized for Obama. Record African American early voting turnout in North Carolina means that half of ALL registered Black voters there voted early. No lack of Black/Latin enthusiasm.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Woot!

• As Nate Silver says in his Update tonight, there was very little change from yesterday because while Obama is doing well, the basic numbers haven't changed: Chance of Winning Obama = 85.5% Romney = 14.5% -- Electoral Vote Obama = 306.4 Romney = 231.6 -- Popular Vote Obama = 50.5% Romney = 48.5%

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• I don't know where the crowd-size troll is getting her numbers. I'm watching Rachel Maddow talking crowds right now. Romney had 4,500 at his rally in Des Moines this morning. Then he had 6,000+ people in Cleveland. Then he went to PA and VA (no crowd numbers given). She said that in Concord, New Hampshire the President had 14,000 people in the crowd. It's the largest rally ever recorded in the history of the state of New Hampshire. In VA last night the President had 24,000 people. In Florida he had 23,000 today. The President's crowds are huge. People are standing in line for hours to vote for the President in Florida.

• That's what Nate's stats were before. They haven't changed. What got updated was the story. But they're still good. I wonder if they'll go up any more. They're pretty high now.

• a bit OT - watching Rachel Maddow right now on the West Coast - and Steve Schmidt is on. First, he has gained at least 20 pounds. He is huge. But he looks and sounds defeated. Rachel is full of good energy. Steve S. looks like he knows it is a done deal.

• Let's all be sure that we get Obama supporters to vote regardless of the positive poll numbers and possible complacency. We need a clear victory in both the electoral college and the popular vote. VOTE!!

• "No enthusiasm," my ass.

  http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/22587_10151250631126749_1613126738_n.png

• Politcalwire: 27 last minute swing state polls and Obama leads 23 out of 27 Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (YouGov) Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Reuters/Ipsos) Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (Zogby) Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (YouGov) Florida: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos) Iowa: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (YouGov) Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling) Michigan: Romney 47%, Obama 46% (Foster McCollum) Michigan: Obama 51%, Romney 44% (YouGov) Nevada: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (YouGov) New Hampshire: Obama 47%, Romney 43% (YouGov) New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling) New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (New England College) North Carolina: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (YouGov) Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Columbus Dispatch) Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 42% (Zogby) Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (YouGov) Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Reuters/Ipsos) Ohio: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling) Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Susquehanna) Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Morning Call) Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, Romney 44% (YouGov) Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Zogby) Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (YouGov) Virginia: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos) Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling) Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov

  http://politicalwire.com/%20

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• R430, I am so sick to fucking death of your "Don't be complacent! You have to blah blah blah VOTE! We can't think blah blah blah blah VOTE! We are all HERE. We are all talking about the election. Clearly we are engaged. Clearly we are involved. Seriously, would you please shut the fuck up? Can't you go harass your dorm or something?

• Calm the fuck down, R433.

• [quote]That's what Nate's stats were before. They haven't changed. What got updated was the story. Yes, and as Nate says, 'the story' is that the National polls are finally converging with the State polls. Up until now Romney has been ahead in a lot of the National polls while Obama has been ahead in most of the State polls. Now Obama has erased Romney's advantage in the National polls and is still leading the State polls.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Yes, good news and good night.

• R433 be sure to get out and VOTE on Tuesday!

  vote%2C%20vote%2C%20VOTE%21

• [quote]CNN Poll: White Vote - 57% Romney, 40% Obama How many of the 57% are republican? I can't believe they're all republican. If that number is real, then there appears to be a major disconnect between a majority of white people and non white people. Shouldn't that be troubling? What is happening? I don't want to believe it is all about race. It can't be.

• I'll be at my polling place at 7am Tuesday. I have my sample ballot all filled out.

• "He's trying to scare people about their livelihoods and that is disgusting and pathetic and desperate!" -- Krystal Ball on The Last Word talking about Romney's Jeep ad. This is precisely the issue at hand Romney may have more money than any one person could ever spend in ten life times, but he is still a greasy used car salesman. Not only that, but his desperate and insulting sleaziness that the relative "closeness" of these polls baffles me.

• R438, not all of those white voters are Republican, no. Some of them are Democrats. But the majority of them are Republican. Btw, apparently the Pew poll shows Romney with only 54% of the White vote, but I haven't had a chance to look at their internals yet.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• [quote]I don't want to believe it is all about race. It can't be. When the Irish, Italians and the Eastern Europeans moved to America, there was fierce bigotry until they ASSIMILATED. The next wave of Latinos will be untrusted until THEY assimilate. Blacks will always be Black. The President is not the descendant of slaves, he is not African-American. He is both white and an American African. And to some part of America, that cannot die off soon enough, all of them are niggers. Yes, it all boils down to bigotry, r438

• Nate Silver: [quote]Between national + battleground state polls so far today: 29 Obama leads, 3 Romney leads, 5 ties.

  https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• PPP National Tracking: Obama 50-48, Up 49-41 with indies.

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/112113114TrackingResults.pdf

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Re: Lulu's post on the PPP poll The movement of Independents towards Obama is one of the biggest stories of the week.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• PPP National Tracking: Obama 50-48, Up 49-41 with Independents Obama Approval at 50%

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/112113114TrackingResults.pdf

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• NC State Board of Elections released more data this afternoon. Black voters increased their #EarlyVote margin by nearly 50,000 over 2008. Retweeted by Goldie Taylor 7:34pm - 4 Nov 12

• R422 is fucking creepy. There's some asshole who seems to be jerking off every time he types the n-word. So he goes around all over the DL finding opportunities to do it. Creepy little klansman.

• I think you tagged the wrong poster there 448.

• R448, I think you meant to say R442. : )

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Sunday voting in Ohio draws throngs of Obama backers Source: LA Times COLUMBUS, Ohio – Dale Snyder Sr., the pastor of Bethel AME Church in Columbus, surveyed the scene with satisfaction: Thousands of people, most of them African American, were waiting in a line that curved round and round the parking lot outside Franklin County’s early voting center. Republicans had gone all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court in their losing battle to stop just such a scene from occurring this weekend in Ohio. But there they were, most of them supporters of President Obama, braving a 45-degree chill for up to two hours to cast their ballots. From Snyder’s standpoint, the Republican gambit had backfired. Bethel AME was one of 69 black churches in Columbus that had organized caravans of buses, vans and cars to take congregants to the strip mall where Franklin County had set up its lone early voting site. Similar scenes unfolded Sunday in Cleveland, Cincinnati and other Ohio cities where the Souls to the Polls project was producing thousands more early votes for the president’s reelection. Many of those who showed up, Snyder said, were galvanized by the Republican drive to block weekend voting.

  http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-early-voting-obama-ohio-20121104%2C0%2C1876486.story%20

• PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls Since a tie is like kissing your sister...our final North Carolina poll is Romney 49.4, Obama 49.2

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• "The movement of Independents towards Obama is one of the biggest stories of the week." R445 Yes,how much do you think the endorsements by Powell and Bloomberg moved the indies?

• FUCK! I meant 442! I offer a heartfelt and abject apology to the lovely and talented R422 who would never be creepy in any way. Ever. Especially since he/she is the even-tempered Pollster Laureate of the DL. Thank you, Rs 449/450. So, 2012 Poll Troll, now that we've made up, what do you think about these Independents breaking for Obama?

  mortified

• How is it CNN just posted it's 49% to 49%????? I don't get it?

• Nate Silver just tweeted: Dick Morris says Romney will win 325 electoral votes. 538 model puts chances of Romney winning 325+ EVs at 1.1%. This is what a 325 map would look like, Dick Morris is on some serious drugs.

  http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php%3Fmapid%3DbiHR

• Obama up 54/45 among early voters in North Carolina, Romney leads 58/40 with folks planning to vote on election day

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• CNN is hoping by posting polls showing a tie that they will get 200 or more viewers tuning in on election night. Their vile coverage to date has almost ensured any thinking individual will NOT think of watching their inept and biased coverage.

• To keep watching CNN, r455. With a fairly tight race, they can get away with it because it's still in the margin of error. The likely vote will be Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Other 3%.

• Dick Morris is completely delusional.

• This upsets me because now a Canadian paper says the polls are being tweaked and that Romney is actually leading in Ohio.

  http://www.torontosun.com/2012/11/02/when-polls-unspun-it-looks-like-romneys-won

• Lol, R461. You're "concerned" about an op-ed written by an extreme right winger.

• LOL, R461. You are evil.

• So everything in that OP-Ed was a lie?

• His major objection is, yes, concerned R464. Polls don't tweak for a specific political party. Well, Rasmussen does apparently. But I'm sure the writer of that screed likes Rasmussen.

• [quote]This upsets me because now a Canadian paper says the polls are being tweaked and that Romney is actually leading in Ohio. No, it's an editorial piece commenting on the methodology behind one poll. The author is a rabid Canadian conservative who has worked for Big Tobacco and carried Ann Coulter's bags when she toured Canada. He was sued for libel by George Soros. And Soros won. The op-ed was published on November 3rd based on a poll published on October 29th. The early voting information is now outdated. The very worst poll for Obama has him tied in Ohio. The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll has him up by 6. Please calm the fuck down.

• From DU: Dashing Republican Hopes The right wing's hope in this election is that nearly all the state polls are wrong and they are all wrong in one direction. As part of their argument they argue that polls were wrong during the heated Wisconsin recall. Actually they were accurate to 1/10 of a percent: They also argue that the polls missed the Republican wave of 2010. Actually they caught it. What did happen is that right leaning pollsters like Rasmussen and Gallup grossly overestimated the size of the wave: And, finally they suggest that polls are skewed. That pollsters have a model that they use which pre-assigns what percentage different groups will comprise of the electorate. Most of them don't. Some of the cheap Republican robopollsters do but that's a different story. Most pollsters give the percentages they do because that's what the respondents to the poll are telling them: "If a pollster weights by party ID, they are substituting their own judgment as to what the electorate is going to look like. It's not scientific," said Doug Schwartz, the director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, which doesn't weight its surveys by party identification.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• He says [quote] The CBS/Times poll has, built in, an assumption that Obama’s supporters are even more enthusiastic today — after four years of high unemployment, deep debt and foreign policy bungling. That’s not statistics. That’s spin. Because buried in that same poll is the finding that Republicans are actually 14% more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats are. And the poll also shows that Romney has a 6% advantage with independents — those voters who are not registered with either party, and are thus more likely to be persuadable. So is Obama really leading by 5% in Ohio? Or is he actually trailing — a fact obscured by the pollsters engaging in some artful editing? So can someone please break this down?

• And please break this down [quote] According to analyst Adrian Gray, as of last Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted in advance polls. That’s down 181,275 from the Obama wave four years ago. And 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early. That’s up 75,858 from the last presidential election. Together that’s a 257,000 vote swing towards the Republicans just in the advance polls. Which is shocking when you realize that Obama only won Ohio by 262,000 votes last time.

• R461, as others above have correctly pointed out, The Toronto Sun is a conservative newspaper in the same vein as The Washington Times and The Wall Street Journal. The job of The Toronto Sun is to be a shill for the Canadian Conservative Party in the same way that the right-wing American papers do for the Republican Party.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• The Obama ground game is outstanding. To couch it in terms understood by Princess Bride fans everywhere, Mitt Romney tried to fight a land war in Asia.

• Re-tweet from Lis Smith, OFA Director of Rapid Response: Lis Smith ‏@Lis_Smith #contractingthemap RT @tobyharnden Senior Romney aides privately conceding that Obama will win Nevada.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• UPDATE: New tweet from Jon Ralston: Jon Ralston @RalstonReports RT @tobyharnden: Senior Romney aides privately conceding that Obama will win Nevada./ Hmmm. Really? Is poor Ryan still coming? #charade

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• [quote]So everything in that OP-Ed was a lie? Yes, Rose, it's all a lie.

• Wow, Lulu, that's the first of that I've seen today. I saw it yesterday though.

• VIRGINIA - PRESIDENT [Obama +1] NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama - 48 Romney - 47

  http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/04/14929602-nbcwsjmarist-poll-virginia-could-go-either-way

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Obama leads Romney 50-49 in final PPP Florida poll.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Virginia could go either way [quote]Three weeks ago, the results were reversed in the poll, with Romney holding a 48 percent to 47 percent edge.

  http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/04/14929602-nbcwsjmarist-poll-virginia-could-go-either-way

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• GOP already putting out “why Romney lost” spin From Zeke Miller and Ben Smith at Buzzfeed: A conservative operative deeply involved with the web of outside groups spending heavily on Romney’s behalf expressed frustration recently at the failure of the flood of money being spent to move the dial. “You keep throwing money at the problem and it just doesn’t resolve,” he said a few weeks ago of the ongoing efforts to damage the president of the United States with expensive ad campaigns. After the storm, the same operative remarked, “Obama is just the luckiest man that ever lived.” Blame Sandy, not Romey And the Romney campaign is now blaming Hurricane Sandy for breaking his momentum. Per Sabrina Siddiqui at the Huffington Post, citing CBS: For eight straight days, polls showed him picking up support. The campaign’s internal polling, which is using different turnout models than most public polls, had him on solid ground in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa. He had a slight lead or was tied in Ohio, New Hampshire and Wisconsin and was in striking distance in Pennsylvania, a state Republicans hadn’t won since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Those leads in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa still hold in the internal polls, campaign sources say, but Romney’s movement flattened out or, as the campaign likes to say, “paused.” Nevada is now off the table, and those neck-and-neck swing states are even tighter. Romney’s momentum rose after the first presidential debate gave him his first significant bounce this cycle. But there has been little evidence in national and swing state polls conducted since then that the Republican presidential nominee has sustained that momentum, despite the Romney campaign’s claims to the contrary. As a sign of how bad things are looking for Romney, GOP strategist Ana Navarro was just on CNN, “defending” Romney, and when asked by the host for a one word answer as to who would win on Tuesday, the Democrat on the panel said “Obama,” while said replied that she was only go to say that Romney would win Florida. Ouch. As for Romney’s surge, that stopped and reversed itself weeks ago. And as I noted a few weeks ago, while Romney’s polls improved nationally after the first debate, in the swing states his numbers didn’t really change that much. He never had enough of a real surge to pull it off. And that probably explains why Paul Ryan is already looking for a post-election job

  http://americablog.com/2012/11/who-is-going-to-win-the-election.html

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• R479 - That is good news.

• VIRGINIA - SENATE [Kaine +3] NBC/WSJ/Marist Kaine (D) 49 Allen (R) 46

  http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/04/14929602-nbcwsjmarist-poll-virginia-could-go-either-way

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Why are some people addressing posters in the 400s and there are only 367 replies to this thread? Am I missing something? Where are those additional 100 replies?

• R482, there are 400+ responses.

• MASSACHUSETTS - PRESIDENT [Obama +20] UMass/Boston Herald Obama - 57 Romney - 37\t --- MASSACHUSETTS - SENATE [Brown +1] [-3] UMass/Boston Herald Brown (R) 49 Warren (D) 48 --- Note: The right-leaning Boston Herald had Brown (+4) in their previous poll, so he has actually dropped 3 points since earlier in the Fall.

  http://multimedia.heraldinteractive.com/misc/umlrvnov2012final.pdf%20

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• I blame Sandy Hume for this disaster!

  Karl

• How very strange. You address me as R482, yet I see my number as R368. I am unable to see over 100 posts, for some reason.

• Well, now I see all the posts. How weird. I live in Nevada and I found it interesting that the pollster for one of the most conservative newspapers in the state has put the state firmly in the Obama column.

  http://www.lvrj.com/news/obama-widens-lead-in-nevada-176737281.html

  r482

• You are showing up to me as R482, as well. : )

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Gravis Marketing [TIE] Obama - 48 Romney - 48 -- Monday, November 05, 2012 (872 LV; Nov 3-4)

  http://www.argojournal.com/2012/11/poll-watch-gravis-marketing-r-2012.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Obama has a 90% Chance of winning Nevada according to Nate Silver. In fact, I think Nate Silver even took Nevada out of the Swing State column entirely and put it in the Safe states category today for the first time. Btw, Nevada politics expert Jon Ralston, who the Nevada Precinct Captain and I talked about earlier this weekend, predicts Obama will win NV by 4 points. And then there's the fact that The Huffington Post, TPM & even RCP say it's going Obama. Something pretty strange would have to happen for Romney to win Nevada.

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Nate Silver changed Nevada to SAFE OBAMA today He now has it as 90% likely to go Obama and took it out of the Swing State list that you normally see on the right-hand side of the page.

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Nate now has Obama at 86.3 percent. Romney is a 6 to 1 underdog.

• This is why I love Trader Joe's!

• I have to now acknowledge doubt in all of these polls. I don't know who is polling in Iowa but their data is not accurate. I got called today. It was automatic and not a live person. I answered several questions about the election. My age, gender, race, party I usually align with, if I voted early, if I intended to vote early or would I vote on election day, then finally who I was going to vote for. At that point I hung up because... I live in California.

• NEW HAMPSHIRE - PRESIDENT [Obama +4] WMUR Obama - 50 Romney - 46 --- NEW HAMPSHIRE - GOVERNOR [Hassan +9] WMUR Hassan (D) - 49 Lamontagne (R) - 40 --- [quote]Obama leads Romney by 4 points Published 12:50 AM EST Nov 05, 2012

  http://www.wmur.com/news/politics/New-WMUR-Granite-State-polls-show-close-races/-/9857748/17266002/-/nr7x0ez/-/index.html

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• R494 - which Polling company?

• R494, not all polls use robocalls to get their responses. The better polls use live callers. So the particular poll you were called for may have been off (do you have a cell with an Iowa area code?), but to assume that all polls are now off because of one poorly conducted poll is a bit extreme. I mean, there are plenty of reasons to wonder about polls' accuracy (the really really low response rate being one of them), but again, historically the aggregate of polls end up being pretty close to the actual results.

• Nate Silver: Obama is "NOW FULLY RECOVERED" [quote]Obama's win probability peaked at 87% on 10/4, last day before polls reflected Denver debate. Fell to 61% on 10/12. Now fully recovered. [quote]Obama becoming a heavier favorite, in 538's view. Now 86% to win Electoral College. [quote]Obama unlikely to win by anything like his post-DNC margins. But Romney has no momentum, Obama's state polling is robust, and time is up.

  http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• 2012 Poll Troll @ R490, More to the article: [bold]he Bellwether: Washoe County Democrats have made substantial gains in Washoe County, home to Reno. “Washoe County was traditionally a strong Republican base,” Mr. Damore said, “but over time it has become much more of a swing district.” In the 2000 presidential election, Washoe County was three percentage points more Republican-leaning than Nevada as a whole. In 2004, it was one point more Republican, and in 2008 Mr. Obama carried Washoe County by just over 12 percentage points, matching the statewide vote almost exactly. To carry Nevada, Mr. Ralston said, Mr. Romney will almost certainly have to carry Washoe County. Mr. Obama needs only to keep it close there, as long as he performs strongly in Clark County.[/bold] Approximately 90 percent of the statewide vote are in Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and state capitol Carson City. Barack Obama won all three in 2008, making it impossible for John McCain to hold that bellwether state after it voted in 2004 for George W. Bush (with a margin closest than any other state to his national margin). The article is especially correct with the change in Washoe County. In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan and George Bush won all three areas (Clark County is Democratic turf). Now the Republicans' worse nightmare is that Washoe County can't be counted on to counter Clark County.

• Way Too Early is saying Romney has a two point advantage in NH and that it is tied in PA. But I can't find any info on this.

• Mark Halperin has been pushing the fantasy that Romney has a huge lead with independents and will win Ohio (and the Presidency). I cannot wait to see him eat shit on Wednesday. How does Heilemann work with him?! Also, Joe Scarborough is saying that NOBODY saw the Reagan revolution coming. Is that true?

• Not according to this article r501. From May up until the election that year, Reagan had a consistent lead over Carter.

  http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/08/09/what-really-happened-in-the-1980-presidential-campaign/

• R501: Scarborough has no fucking idea what he's talking about.

• Now Joe Scar has a map where Romney loses MI, WI, IA, NV, OH and PA and still wins the election. I have tried to map this out and I just don't understand how this is supposed to work. Unless we start talking about flipping states that are clearly going for Obama. Joe Scar has no credibility at all. Why are the MSNBC morning shows so right leaning?

• That was my question awhile back, R504. MSNBC is supposed to be left-leaning, but I guess not in the morning.

• RAND National Poll: 11/04 - Obama 49.88% Romney 45.49%

  http://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/%3Fpage%3Delection

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• So the Republican spin is that the storm surge killed the Romney surge? And the fact that thousands of homes have been destroyed and hundreds killed is a "lucky" thing for the President. Eek. That's some nasty spin.

• MONDAY NOVEMBER 5 ********************** Latino Decisions Obama - 73% Romney - 24% ---- by Latino Decisions on 11/05/2012 High Latino voter turnout could deliver swing states of Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and Florida to the Democrats impreMedia & Latino Decisions today released the last in a series of 11 weekly tracking polls with results suggesting President Obama is poised to win a record high share of the Latino vote, and in turn likely to win key swing states and enough electoral college votes to retain the presidency. During the course of the 11 weeks of tracking, there have been fluctuations in Obama’s favorability and attitudes about key issues among Latinos, but overall results indicate the President has retained consistent support and Latinos report they are likely to turn out in record numbers. Sixteen percent of respondents indicated that they had already voted early, with another 73% saying they were certain to vote, reflecting increasing levels of enthusiasm over the course of this poll. The President’s support continued its steady climb with 64% saying they are certain to vote for him on election day and another 8% leaning towards him. Romney’s supporters also remained consistent, but overall he was unable to make significant inroads with Latino voters. Week 11 polling found 22% said they were certain to or might vote for Romney, compared to 24% during Week 1 polling. Among likely Latino voters, those with consistent vote history or have already voted, 73% say they plan to vote for Obama compared to 24% for Romney and 3% undecided. If Obama wins 73% or higher of the Latino vote, it would eclipse the 72% won by Bill Clinton in his landslide re-election in 1996, and mark the highest total ever for a Democratic presidential candidate.

  http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/11/05/final-impremedia-ld-tracking-poll-if-latino-vote-is-high-obama-will-carry-4-key-swing-states/%20

  2012%20Poll%20Troll%2C%20ready%20for%20the%20last%20day%20of%20polling

• I hope the Latino turnout is overwhelmingly high. They will be a major political force if they vote! They can run that asshole Scott out of FLA. He is a despicable pig.

• Romney: Speaking to voters in Des Moines, Iowa on Sunday, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney wavered somewhat from his prior, supremely confident public statements, reportedly describing a victory for President Barack Obama as “possible, but not likely.”

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• MISSOURI - SENATE [McCaskill +15] SurveyUSA McCaskill (D) - 51 Akin (R) - 36 -- MISSOURI - PRESIDENT [Romney +7] SurveyUSA Romney - 50 Obama - 43

  http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-mccaskill-has-15-point-lead-over-akin

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Why doesn't this Latin advantage help in Arizona?

• SurveyUSA: MISSOURI - (McCaskill +15); (Romney +7) 7:22 AM EST, MONDAY NOVEMBER 5, 2012 Missouri Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill is closing with a big lead, according to a new poll from SurveyUSA and commissioned by four in-state TV stations. McCaskill gets 51 percent of the total, GOP Rep. Todd Akin gets 36 percent, and Libertarian candidate Jonathan Dine sees 8 percent. The same poll shows Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney winning by 7 points, 50 percent to President Obama's 43 percent. Akin's campaign has been steeped in controversy since he made his "legitmate rape" comments back in August. The PollTracker Average of the race shows McCaskill with a solid lead in the final days.

  http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx%3Fg%3Db373c0f0-6ba1-4c72-87a1-5027a4e51d07

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• [quote] Something pretty strange would have to happen for Romney to win Nevada. We're on it!

  KKKarl%20Rove

• THANK JESUS, R511 R513... THANK JESUS.

• r497, my cell phone is a 310 area code (cali) and I've never stepped foot in Iowa or had reason to call them. r496, I wasn't paying attention to grab the name of the company, and probably hung up before they could give it again. But they said they were collected statistical data on voting in Iowa.

  r494

• (NATL POLL) You Gov -Obama (D) 49% Romney ($) 47%

  http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/yougov-16573

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• So happy that once again that having these tea party candidates like Akin and Murdock is a biting the Republicans in the ass.

• Joe Scarborough: “If I'm Betting, I'm Betting On The President”

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Rasmussen Romney 49 Obama 48

• Obama leads Romney among women by 13 points (53% to 40%), while men prefer Romney by 8 points (50% to 42%).

  http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/11/05/14942436-pew-shows-obama-bouncing-back-after-denver-debate%3Flite

  Men%20are%20idiots%20

• Projection: Obama Will Likely Win Second Term Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics November 5th, 2012

  http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Larry Sabato: With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes. This has been a roller-coaster campaign, though very tight ever since Romney dramatically outshone Obama in the first debate in Denver on Oct. 3. Yet for a challenger to defeat an incumbent, the fates must be with the challenger again and again. Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republican’s campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaign’s last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)? Adding to the president’s good fortune was a final jobs report that was basically helpful because it wasn’t disastrously bad — that is, the unemployment rate failed to jump back above the psychologically damaging level of 8%. Romney could have used that number to build a crescendo for change. Instead, the final potential obstacle to Obama’s reelection passed by as a one-day story. While Romney surged after the first debate, he never quite closed the deal in the key swing states. And now, we believe he has run out of time.

• Rachel Maddow: The Pew Research Center's national polls tend to generate more attention than most because their recent track record is quite good. Pew's final 2008 poll, for example, showed Barack Obama leading by 6 points nationwide, and he won by 7 points. Pew's final 2004 polled George W. Bush leading by 3, and he won by 2.5. With that in mind, it's worth noting that Pew's final 2012 poll shows the president ahead by three, 48% to 45%. I made chart showing to highlight the larger trend. You'll notice, of course, that immediately after Obama's first debate with Mitt Romney, the Democrat's standing saw a sharp decline, to the point that the Republican inched ahead a month ago. In the ensuing weeks, however, the president's support recovered (though it remains short of where it was in September). There was, however, one other detail that stood out for me: among likely voters 39% support Obama "strongly," as compared to 33% who say the same about his challenger. Why is that significant? Because in the post-Watergate era, the only other candidates to have 39% "strong" support going into Election Day were Reagan in 1984 and Bush in 2004. Both of them won. One other thing: when Pew showed Obama's support collapsing after the Denver debate, the gender gap vanished and the president was tied with Romney among women. Now, however, the gap has returned, and Obama leads Romney among women by 13 points (53% to 40%), while men prefer Romney by 8 points (50% to 42%).

  http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/11/05/14942436-pew-shows-obama-bouncing-back-after-denver-debate%3Flite

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Joe Scar is now mad at the Op-ed section of NYT for telling the truth that 2010 repubs set out to disagree with the president at all costs. If the repubs lose this election (and they likely will) are they going to finally admit that they need to break ties with the backward ass tea party lunatics?

• Sabato's basic projection seems in the general ballpark, but I find it curious that he gives Colorado to Obama but Virginia to Romney. I think Obama is actually stronger in Virginia than Colorado, but there's no way of knowing for sure. One ultimately has to make a call one way or the other. Nate Silver projects Obama to win both.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Joe is such a partisan hack.

  Joe's Dead Intern Problem

• I agree, Poll Troll. Has there been any poll with Romney ahead in Virginia in the last week?

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• In defense of Joe Scarborough, he is very middle-of-road Republican. His kind is pretty rare. Yes, he has his conservative views, but nothing that is extreme or polemic. Joe has been attacked by the far right like Rush.

• PPP Colorado Poll: Obama 52, Romney 46

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Poll Troll, while I think we are primed for an Obama victory, I am concerned that Silver's projections are a tad too optimistic. What say you?

• R531, until the last few days, Silver has actually been much more conservative in his Obama projections than certain other models, such as Dr. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium. In fact, last week Wang told Silver his Obama numbers weren't high enough! Let's put it that way.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• NBC Poll: Undecided Voters Like Obama Much More than Romney First Read makes one last point about the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll: "The survey found that 9% of the likely voters are up for grabs (meaning they're undecided or just leaning to a candidate), and these folks have more positive feelings toward Obama than Romney. Obama's job approval with them is 48% approve, 41% disapprove. What's more, Obama's fav/unfav with them is 46%/29%, vs. Romney's upside down 22%-49%. Bottom line: Our pollsters see more of an opportunity for Obama among these voters and more of an uphill climb for Romney."

  http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/05/14942403-first-thoughts-all-comes-down-to-turnout-and-racial-composition%3Flite

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Dave Wissing notes that if final polls from The Economist/YouGov are correct, President Obama will win 303 electoral votes. The final Reuters/Ipsos polls suggest Obama will win 294 electoral votes. The final Public Policy Polling surveys point to an Obama landslide of 332 electoral votes.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Mellman VA Poll: Obama 48 (+2), Romney 45 Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp Mellman Group poll of Virginia has it 48-45 for Obama. Virgil Goode is getting 1 percent

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Yes Virgnia, there have not been any recent polls with Romney ahead in Virginia.

• VIRGINIA - PRESIDENT [Romney +2] Rasmussen Reports Romney - 50 Obama - 48 ---- Monday, November 05, 2012 Mitt Romney still earns 50% support in Virginia just before Election Day. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. This is unchanged from two weeks ago and the week before that when it was Romney 50%, Obama 47%. Virginia which is critical to Romney’s fortunes in the election remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections as it has been in surveys for months. Polls close in Virginia tomorrow at 7 pm Eastern. The results from the state will be an early indicator of how the election is going: If Romney loses Virginia, he is unlikely to win the election. Ninety-three percent (93%) of the state’s voters say they have made up their minds how they will vote, and the race is 50%-50% among these voters. Romney has the support of 90% of Virginia Republicans and leads 58% to 37% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. The president has 93% backing from the state’s Democrats. Virginia voters trust Romney more when it comes to handling the economy by a 51% to 45% margin. The challenger leads the president by two points – 49% to 47% - in terms of voter trust when it comes to national security and energy policy. These numbers are essentially unchanged from two weeks ago.

  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Thanks Poll Troll, I trust your analysis more than any of the talking heads on TV who seem content to shriek "tie tie tie...squeaker tie tie" all day.

  531

• And presto, Rasmussen fills the order! Where is Gravis to amen him?

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Democracy Corps (D) Obama 49 Romney 45

  http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/obama-with-4-point-lead-24-hours-out/

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Rasmussen's VIRGINIA number didn't change. Romney was +2 in their poll a couple of weeks ago, and he is still +2. So he doesn't seem to be gaining any support. The only question now is who's right: Rasmussen or the other pollsters? Rasmussen may get some of these right - there's no way to know for sure. On the other hand, while Rasmussen's National numbers were accurate in 2008, people forget that he was about 4 points off on his state polls. He overestimated Republican support. Is he doing so again this year?

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• I think Obama was +5 in the previous Democracy Corps poll, so he may be down one point. May just be statistical noise, and not particularly relevant I suppose at this point.

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• [quote]So the Republican spin is that the storm surge killed the Romney surge? And the fact that thousands of homes have been destroyed and hundreds killed is a "lucky" thing for the President. Eek. That's some nasty spin. It also happens to be untrue, since Romney's "surge" and his "momentum" had stopped shortly after the first debate. He got a bump out of that debate but the trend did not continue and he did not continue to rise. If anything, the reverse was true and he fell a bit in some critical polls.

• Pennsylvania is going to turn this election on its head. Romney is going to win Pennsylvania and hence the election.

• cite your source or shut the hell up 544. There is nothing to support that claim at all.

• "If I hear anybody say it was because Romney wasn't conservative enough I'm going to go nuts. We're not losing 95% of African-Americans and two-thirds of Hispanics and voters under 30 because we're not being hard-ass enough." -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by Politico, saying that demographics would be the only reason for a hypothetical Mitt Romney loss Tuesday.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• And what is that opinion based on, R544? Tea leaves? A hunch? A hope? One poll showed it tied in PA but that was 5 days ago. Since then three more larger polls have come out showing Obama +5.66% on average. I'll take math over hope, thanks.

• r547, dont forget that the poll was done by a discredited Republican firm Susquehanna.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Pick up a paper r545 or turn on a tv.

• COLORADO - PRESIDENT [Obama +6] Public Policy Polling Obama - 52 Romney - 46 [quote]Our final Colorado poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 52/46.

  https://twitter.com/ppppolls

  2012%20Poll%20Troll

• Dear Poll Troll or the estimable Dr. Fong -- Does PPP tend to overstate Democratic support? I'm hoping their polling is reliable.

• PPP has a Democratic lean. From Wikipedia: PPP first entered prominence through its performance in the 2008 Democratic primaries between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The company performed very well, producing extremely accurate predictions in many states ranging from South Carolina to Wisconsin, many of which featured inaccurate results by other pollsters.[7][8][9] In 2010, PPP was the first pollster to find Scott Brown with a lead over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate special election; Brown ultimately won in what was considered an upset.[10] In 2011, PPP was praised for its accuracy in polling primaries and special elections, which are notoriously hard to predict. The contests they accurately predicted include the West Virginia gubernatorial primaries, special elections in New York and California,[11][12] as well as all eight Wisconsin recall elections.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Final Ohio Poll (U of Cincinatti): Obama 50, Romney 48.5

  Dr%20Lulu%20Fong

• Over the last week there have been 11 Ohio polls released. Rasmussen has been the only one to show a (2point) lead for Romney. It is not the individual polls that are so significant statistically, it is the general aggregation of the polls that is most significant.

  http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-virginia-president-romney-vs-obama%3Fgem

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Ooops, Correction. I meant Virginia, not Ohio. And there are 10 polls from Ohio since October 30, and Rasmussen is the only one with Romney ahead.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• One thing you will see looking at a lot of the polls is that it is Republican pollsters Rasmussen, Gravis, and Susquehanna against the world. They are outliers from the chorus of other polls in most of the states, and to a lesser degree, nationally.

• ZOGBY Florida: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Zogby) Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Zogby) Virginia: Obama 52%, Romney 44% (Zogby)

  http://jzanalytics.com/

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Those Zogby polls look crazy. Amazingly good, but what do we make of them?

• f544 there is NOT ONE SINGLE RELIABLE POLL that give's Romney a chance in PA. Quit your trolling. It's just desperate at this point.

• Intrade up to 67.2% for Obama

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Don't believe Zogby. His track record since 2008 is awful. But he provides good entertainment.

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• NV-Sen: Let me start with a wheelbarrow full of caveats: any amount of ticket-splitting could be going on, and more generally, past performance is no guarantee of future results (in terms of how the actual election day votes go). But the Dems are killing it in Nevada in the early vote this year, perhaps to the extent that Dem coattails might pull NV-Sen's Shelley Berkley (and NV-04's Steven Horsford) over the line. Friday's early-vote tally has Dems leading the GOP in early votes, 45-36 (with 19% "other"), with a margin of 45K votes separating them. In addition to a dominant total in Clark Co. (a 60K Dem advantage there), the Dems have nosed ahead (by 600 votes) in the critical swing county of Washoe (David Jarman)

• Is Zogby and NewsMax the weirdest marriage since James Carville and Scary Matalin?

• Saturday's poll on PA

  http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/11/04/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-1003_1/fivethirtyeight-1003_1-blog480.png

• TODAY'S CAMPAIGN SCHEDULE: Barack Obama and Bruce Springsteen — Madison, WI; Columbus, OH; and Des Moines, IA Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard between East Wilson and West Doty streets (Madison) 10:45 AM CT Nationwide Arena, with Jay Z (Columbus) 2:25 PM ET Des Moines' East Viallage, with Michelle Obama 7:30 PM ET Joe and Jill Biden — Sterling, VA Heritage Farm Museum at Claude Moore Park 12 PM ET Michelle Obama — Charlotte, NC, and Orlando, FL Flight Operations (Charlotte) 3:15 PM ET Southport Park (Orlando) 6:10 PM ET Bill Clinton — Pittsburgh, PA; Scranton, PA; Blue Bell, PA; Philadelphia, PA Market Square (Pittsburgh) 10:15 AM ET Scranton High School (Scranton) 7 PM ET Montgomery Community College (Blue Bell) 2:30 PM ET Palestra Arena, University of Pennsylvania (Philadelphia) 4 PM ET

• R564, your linked polls are a little out of date. There's been a subsequent YouGov poll on 11/3 showing Obama +8.

• Democracy Corp's previous poll was on October 29 and showed Romney leading by one point. There was no previous poll until now.

  http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/joint-survey-for-npr/

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• I'm really hoping the polls are wrong but it looks like the Obama KoolAid drinkers are going to be celebrating Tuesday night. If Obama is reelected it well be a very sad day for those of us who love this country and what it stood for. But I will not begrudge the winners. I may not agree with the outcome and feel that it will be the death knell for American exceptionalism but it was reached through Democracy - the greatest political system in the world and for that that I tip my hat to the Obama freaks.

• First Lady Michelle Obama and Mariah Carey Make Final Campaign Push in Charlott

• A concern toll here: Why are all the top Romney supporters so confident Romney will win? Is it because they live in a delusion world? Or do they know that the republicans have plans in place to cheat?

• The fact that President Obama was elected once and the favorite to be elected again is EXACTLY what makes America exceptional. We embrace individualism, diversity and the common good.

• r568 since you believe so much in Democracy, how do you feel about the shenanigans and voter supression in Florida and Ohio? Are you pissed that people can't vote? Are you pissed about the legal citizens of this great country who have been to they have to re-register then they had already registered - TWICE ? Let's hear your thoughts on that?

• r570, you do realize that it is their job to project confidence. What would you expect? Stop being so illogical about politics. That is what professional politicos do.

• Thanks for the laugh r268, where were you and others of your ilk decrying the end of American exceptionalism when Bush ran the economy into the ground? The country still stands for what it always has, now go be a Freeper Creeper some place else.

• Don't do us any favors, R568.

• American Research Group (R): Iowa: Romney 49(+1) Obama 48(-) New Hampshire Romney 49 (-) Obama 49(+2)

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• r570 they have to keep up that meme or GOP voters who think Romney will lose won't bother to get to the polls. They need all the numbers they can get so they can claim that Obama 'in no way has a mandate' adn they want the voters to get the Senate and local offices to Republicans. That is why WE HAVE TO GET OUT VOTE no matter who's winning. We need to get All the gop fuckers, obstructionists out of office.

• r568 It;s a beginning.

  Years%202000%20%26%202004

• 500 Top Military brass (retired) all support Romney. If Obama is re-elected he better be on the lookout for a coup.

  http://media.washtimes.com/media/misc/2012/11/05/ad.pdf

• r568 you must HATE George Bush for what he did to this country. Do you hate all the Republicans who want to carry on his policies as well?

• r579, washington times? Why not post DRUDGE links and be done with it?

• Obama rally in Wisconsin streaming live at link. Springsteen's playing right now.

  http://www.wkow.com/category/210335/live-streaming-on-wkowcom

• [quote] If Obama is re-elected he better be on the lookout for a coup. I love these patriots who cheer on the idea of treason.

• I consider what you are referring to as treason, R579. And while I don't believe in a death penalty, treason (traitors) against the government who plot to take down a lawfully elected president should do long time in prison.

• Poll Troll, if I missed this in the thread I apologize (I'm catching up after being out of electricity for a week) but if you look at the electroral map and Obama takes PA,IA, NV and WI is it possible to win without FLA or OH? He could take VA and CO and be over the 270?

• I think those Generals did all but try a coup on JFK. They did several things without his okay. That's why JFK needed Bobby to go around them. Thank God.

• R585, in your scenario. Obama would only need to take CO to win. He could lose VA, too, and he would still win.

• Check out this crowd for the President in Wisconsin. This blows any crowd Romney has drawn out of the water.

  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/05/1155895/-Crowd-waiting-for-Obama-in-Wisconsin

• How come Nate has Obama doing better in the swing states than all the other polls? Worries me!

• 11/5/12 Columbus, OH Obama has the Boss and Jay Z Romney has the Marshall Tucker Band

• r589 - Obama has been campaigning heavily in the swing states so his message is reaching more people.

• R589, Nate is not a pollster so your post doesn't make a lot of sense. Nate's numbers are all about the probability each candidate has to win a state or the whole election. His numbers are not vote tally predictions.

• r590 - The Marshall Tucker Band? Really? I honestly cannot think of one song of theirs.

• According to Rasmussen’s website, “After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors.” Most pollsters do not re-weight for party ID, instead considering that to be one of the items that they are measuring in their poll. Party ID is volatile, so I’m not sure how you can do this and not show such observed inconsistency.

• As annoying as r568 is, I will take him over the insane concern trolls any day of the week. You guys are a bunch of pussies who are afraid of your own shadows. Nut up for Christ's sake.

• LOL @ r284

• Final Rasmussen OHIO: 49 Obama 49 Romney Obama approval t 51 percent in state

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• Heard it in a Love Song, 35 years ago. Listen to the sound of desperation, R593.

• Part ID in national poll, Ras has 39-33 GOP+ (0+ / 0-) 39 Republican 33 Democrat.

• Final PPP Nevada poll Obama 51 Romney 47

  Dr%20LULU%20FONG

• I am loving the Latino Decisions numbers. The McCaskill numbers are also enjoyable. Legitimate Rape Akin seems to be sinking like a stone, just when all his old buddies came back to him. I was born and raised in Boston and I wouldn't trust a Herald poll to tell me anything. Warren's in better shape than that. Rove must have money to burn. I'm in Santa Barbara and saw a "Crossroads America" attack ad on the President during "The Good Wife" last night.