The University of Colorado (CU) prediction renowned for perfect accuracy predicts a Romney popular-vote win
[quote]The University of Colorado (CU) prediction renowned for perfect accuracy will predict a popular-vote win for Mitt Romney later this month
[quote]The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.
[quote]CU Political Science Professor Dr. Michael Berry said there is at least 77 percent chance that Romney will win the popular vote.
It is interesting to note that they have been very consistent in their forecast even when others gave Obama an 85% probability of victory
Who knows since the electoral college and popular vote are different issues
I think it quite possible Obama could lose the popular vote and win on electoral votes.
I think it woudl be a terrible beginning to his next 4 years.
From the website:
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They sound like such a objective, nonpartisan organization!
Nice try, OP.
[quote]I think it quite possible Obama could lose the popular vote and win on electoral votes.
It would be payback for 2000.
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You guys are right. Let's go straight to the source which is an article posted on the Colorado University website.
[quote]An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.
[quote]According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.
[quote]The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.
Of course, CU and Boulder ARE well known to be staunchly right wing
Jesus -- when I lived in CO back in the 80's, it was Cocaine Central.
I wonder what happened...
What's that supposed to mean, r7?
Damn, the queens of denial also known as R2, R3 and R4 got played pretty well.
First a post from a right wing site to let them all get their mumus in a bind about it being right wing propaganda and then a post straight from Colorado U.
Where did all the queens of denial go?
There is one left also known as R9. Maybe he could point us to another model that predicted that Gore would win the popular vote and Bush would win the electoral college.
I would call that prediction remarkable.
I stand by my post R10.
No one gives a shit, so *nice try*.
[quote]The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction due to factors not included in the model.
Is this the same Nate who said Obama had an 85%+ chance of victory?
Is this the same Nate who said in September and October of 2010 that the forecasts of others that said that the Republicans were going to pick up a huge number of House seats were crazy overstated ....until 10 days before the election when is black box model suddenly said they would?
What a load of horseshit. They predicted in August the outcome of the last 32 years of elections.
WTF? And with all those caveats?
How can you predict the past? That's not a proven model - that's bullshit.
Freeper website shill alert.
[quote]Is this the same Nate who said in September and October of 2010 that the forecasts of others that said that the Republicans were going to pick up a huge number of House seats were crazy overstated ....until 10 days before the election when is black box model suddenly said they would?
Ah, I see we have a gentleman and a scholar among us.