Romney Now Has Lead Over Obama With Likely Voters
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has surged following his strong debate performance last week, and he now holds a slight lead over President Obama among likely voters, according to a new poll released Monday by the Pew Research Center.
Romney is more highly regarded on most personal traits and issues than he was prior to the debate, and his supporters are now more enthusiastic and engaged in the campaign than they were last month. The poll also shows significant increases in the number of voters who identify as Republicans and the number of Republicans who report that they are likely to vote.
Romney leads Obama among likely voters, 49 percent to 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided or choosing another candidate. That is a significant turnaround from the previous poll, conducted in mid-September, when Obama led, 51 percent to 43 percent.
Among the broader universe of registered voters surveyed from Oct. 4-7, the two candidates are tied at 46 percent apiece, with 8 percent undecided. That is similar to interviews conducted by Gallup Oct. 4-6, which also found Obama and Romney tied among registered voters.
The catalyst for Romney's bounce appears to be his performance at last week's debate. Asked who did the better job, 66 percent of voters say Romney did, compared to just 20 percent for Obama.
For the first time in Pew's polling, a majority of Romney supporters say they "strongly support" him. Obama had held a significant advantage on this measure all year. Romney's supporters are more engaged in the campaign than Obama's, the poll also shows. Fully 82 percent of Romney backers say they have given "a lot of thought" to the election , compared to just two-thirds of Obama voters. The two candidates were roughly even on this measure last month.
As a result, more Republicans are making it through the likely-voter screen, giving the GOP a 5-point advantage on party identification, a significant change from last month, when Democrats held a 10-point advantage. Republicans now make up 36 percent of likely voters, up from 29 percent last month. Democratic identification among likely voters declined from 39 percent last month, to 31 percent now.
Meanwhile, the poll also shows significant jumps for Romney on important personal attributes following the debate. Romney now matches Obama in favorability among registered voters. Half view Romney favorably, while 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. Obama's numbers are similar: 49 percent favorable, and 48 percent unfavorable.
Both Obama and Romney are now equally seen as a "strong leader" by registered voters, compared to a 13-point Obama advantage on this measure last month. Romney has also closed the gap on the question of which candidate is "honest and truthful," trimming his deficit from 14 points in September to 5 points in the new survey.
Romney has seen similar increases on the issues. He now holds a significant advantage on improving the jobs outlook, 49 percent to 41 percent, despite the fact that most of the poll was conducted after the release of September's unemployment numbers on Friday. Last month, Obama held a 1-point advantage on this measure. Romney now leads by 4 points on the issue of taxes, which was a 6-point advantage for Obama last month. On the issues of Medicare, health care and foreign policy, which showed double-digit margins for Obama last month are now slim, single-digit edges.
On the ballot test, Romney's most significant improvements have come among women, white voters and younger voters. While Obama held an 18-point lead among likely female voters last month, the race is now tied, with each candidate capturing 47 percent of the female vote. Romney leads among men, 51 percent to 43 percent, a slight increase from his 2-point edge among male voters last month.
Romney's lead among whites has more than doubled. He now leads, 58 percent to 37 percent; last month, he was winning whites, 51 percent to 44 percent. In particular, he has improved his standing significantly among white women, who now favor him, 57 percent to 38 percent. Last month, Obama was actually winning white women by an insignificant, 3-point margin.
Romney also claims a 3-point lead among voters aged 18 to 49 years, 49 percent to 46 percent. Last month, these voters swung to Obama, 56 percent to 39 percent. Romney also leads among those 50 and older by the same, 3-point margin; Obama led among this bloc by 3 points last month.
The poll surveyed 1,201 registered voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.3 percentage points. There were also 1,112 likely voters; these results carry a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.4 percentage points.
- Won't last.
- Obama rose a point in today's Gallup tracking poll. Gallup has Obama leading by 5, 50-45.
- Bullshit. Isn't Pew a freeper think-tank?
- Someone on DL's losing it with all these Romney leading Obama threads.
- R1 is correct.
- How can the American public being this fucking stupid?! Romney pissed on half of them!
- What the pollsters and the media (which desperately want a 'horse race' since it sells better) is that the people being polled are likely voters with land line telephones -- a fact which overwhelmingly favors Republican voters.
Young and minority voters tend to have only cell phones (not land lines) and are therefore consistently underrepresented in the poll results.
You're not going crazy -- it's the polls that suck.
- That is so true, OP.
- Sorry, my previous posts should have said:
"What the pollsters and the media (which desperately want a 'horse race' since it sells better) aren't telling you is that the people being polled are likely voters with land line telephones -- a fact which overwhelmingly favors Republican voters.
Young and minority voters tend to have only cell phones (not land lines) and are therefore consistently underrepresented in the poll results.
You're not going crazy -- it's the polls that suck."
- So in other words, a whole bunch of people believed Romney's lies.
Make no mistake - Romney is a liar. He lied numerous times during the debate, and yet people are believing those lies?
Where are the fact checkers? Where are the people in the media saying, "wait a second - Romney was lying!"
This is so fucked up.
- It's one poll. On the whole, Obama still has a small but clear lead.
- Why does anyone care about national polls?
We all know Obama will get historically low votes in almost every Red State, so who gives a fuck if Romney has 97% instead of 94% support in Oklahoma?
It's the Swing States, and the Electoral College, nothing else matters.
- Naional Journal ?
- ... the polls released on Sunday did not tell quite as optimistic a story for [Romney] as those in the debate’s immediate aftermath. ...
the fact that Mr. Romney did not make further gains in the polls on Sunday can be read as mildly disappointing for him. The way tracking polls work is to replace the oldest day of interviews with fresh interviews conducted the previous day. In the Sunday release of the polls, this meant that interviews from Saturday were replacing a day of interviewing from before the debate. The fact that the Saturday interviews that entered the polls were roughly as strong for Mr. Obama as the predebate day of interviews that they displaced is an encouraging sign for Mr. Obama — at least as compared with most of the polling news that he has received since the debate.
- So one debate led to these MASSIVE changes in the Pew Poll?
The results are either ridiculous or people are so fucking stupid they should die.
- What R15 said.
Romney is a greedy, lying sack of shit. The fact that he has no qualms about brazenly lying to the American people is a reason to run *away* from him, not towards him.
- [quote] So one debate led to these MASSIVE changes in the Pew Poll?
OR, could this be the excuse that the election fixers were looking for, in order to rig the results.
I just don't buy that one stupid debate could sway peoples' opinions so quickly, and I'm beginning to think that the Karl Rove machine is putting this story out, to make a "Romney win" more plausible.
Before this, there was no way they could spin a Romney win. This is just the opening they were looking for.
- amazing what the power of the press can do with soundbites.
- The media needs to treat it as though it is close because politics is a game to them.
If a game -regardless of sport- is a blowout, people tune out. The media wants ratings and the only way to get ratings is to lie about Romney's chances.
- The dumb fucks in this country...they loved Bush and then they got what they deserved, and now they're about to do it all over again.
- You could also just choose to refuse to be swayed by the hype.
Most polls suggest Obama retains his lead.
- What R20 said. Part of me won't be that upset if Mitt wins however. The economy won't make any kind of dramatic recovery in 4 years, it might even get worse, and Americans will be pissed and vote in another Democrat.
Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
- Polls have a margin of error based on the sampling error. These margins of error are supposed to be unbiased. Just by chance, one poll could show a wide swing once in awhile. That other polls are not showing a big change and that Gallup swung toward Obama shows that the Pew poll swing is likely an outlier.
- Gallup is going to a likely voter model tomorrow; a Gallup spokesperson said tonight this action will probably wipe Obama's lead out.
Lovely. I hope the trashy hillbillies enjoy their "vouchers."
- We ned to be pressuring the mainstream news media to do their jobs. It is incomprehensible to me that the public would be so stupid as to not see thru this hype. The media has pounced on the bad debate performance as if it was the only thing that mattered and the past four years haven't happened. They know ROmney lied so they keep harping on his "performance" and how he "looked." We need to insist that the media do it's job and challenge ROmney's blatantly false assertions. Call them, e-mail them, do what ever you have to do, tweet at them. But don't lie back and let this happen. They need to know we are aware of what they are trying to pull.
- The media only understands ratings, which is why I do not watch CNN at all.
- The thing is, there really IS no mainstream news media now. There are editors in need of "content" who will run press releases and copy from what's left of the news services.
The death of American journalism (newspapers dying, with no real strong investigative journalism sources to replace them) has made it possible for the companies that own the broadcast/cable and to a certain extent internet content providers to essentially be vehicles for their owners' opinions.
There are some very good reporters (and bloggers) out there, but they don't have the kind of resources and reach that old school newspapers and network news organizations once had.
- It's over according to Andrew Sullivan. Maybe Obama is done with it all.
- If it's not on a
2012 Poll Troll thread
It Ain't True.
- Sully is being a nervous Nellie.
- It's just so sad.
- Sorry, but Obama is leading by five points nationally, and in Electoral votes he will win by at least 303. He can win without FLA and VA too.
- If Obama loses, Democrats and losers will join the rightwing nutjobs in demonizing him. After all, he was significantly ahead throughout all of September until the very night of the debates. It would be one thing if he gave the debate all his effort yet was out debated. But it is clear he was not prepared, was lethargic, and seemed downright arrogant about being unprepared. He would have effectively handed the election to Romney. Liberals should be demanding that he show that he is making the remaining debates his number one priority and doing much better preparation now.
- Sully may have given up, but President Obama hasn't. He's in it to win it in spite of the debate.
- I have to say I'm getting fed up with all these contradictory polls.
Honestly. Fed Up.
- R35 - don't pay too much attention to individual polls. Look at Nate Silver's models.
- A lot of Americans are pretty dumb. I can't believe one debate and all of the sudden these changes.
Have people been paying attention for the last year or so? What's one debate compared to what we see and heard of Romney.
If Romney wins, the Neocons are sending us to war in the ME again. They are just itching to start a war with Iran.
- People don't want to be informed. They want a reason not to vote for President Obama. It's easier to believe lies that Mitt tells.
- America has one of the stupidest electorates in the world. They are fickle, shallow, and go the way the wind blows. No one with a brain or a conscience could vote for Romney, yet at least half of this country is apparently poised to do so. Good lord, we are a stupid people.
- Obama has lost. Focus on the senate and the House.
- R41 = Republican troll?
- bullshit r41.
- Get a grip r42. There is no way Obama comes back from this drop. Its not being a troll to state that.
- Yes, yes it is being a troll to state that.
Check back in next week. What will you say when the polls are in his favor again?
And the week after?
- I'm so looking forward to Romney's 7 or 8 pre-emptive wars and other assorted military conflicts.
Romney in Washington will be hilarious. Ultimately, people get the leaders they deserve. Tax cuts for the rich! Rollback universal health care! Raise taxes on the middle class! War with Iran!
I don't think I'm going to pay attention to any of it.
- [quote] Liberals should be demanding that he show that he is making the remaining debates his number one priority and doing much better preparation now.
Please, liberals don't demand squat from Obama, that's why we're in this mess.
- Freeper doody
- What drop, R44? Get your mouth away from Ann's muff long enough to join reality.
- God DAMN they are trying to out concern the concern trolls!
The polls go up and down. There will be good polls for Obama and less good polls. The election is in a month.
The media is loving their ratings right now, and much of it depends on the poll results being 'even'....
- ugh, this election could not be over fast enough
- There are two smarter questions to ask about the Pew poll. [bold]First, is it really likely that Mr. Romney leads the race by 4 points right now? [/bold]The consensus of the evidence, particularly the national tracking polls, would suggest otherwise. Instead, the forecast model’s conclusion is that the whole of the data is still consistent with a very narrow lead for Mr. Obama, albeit one that is considerably diminished since Denver.
It might be granted that the situation is more ambiguous than usual right now. [bold]But our forecast model looks at literally all of the polls; [/bold]it estimates Mr. Romney’s post-debate bounce as being 2.5 percentage points,[bold] not quite enough to erase Mr. Obama’s pre-debate advantage.[/bold]
- Poll has already been discredited by PT12.
Skewed and invalid.
- What a difference a d(eb)a(te)y makes.
The Ghost of Dinah Washington