- MASSACHUSETTS - SENATE [Warren +6]
Harstad Strategic Research
Warren (D) - 50
Brown (R) - 44
October 8, 2012
[quote]Elizabeth Warrens Opens Up Significant Lead in Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren has opened up a significant lead in the Massachusetts Senate race, according to our recent survey. Fully 50% of voters support Elizabeth Warren versus 44% for incumbent Scott Brown – the first time either candidate has reached the 50% threshold in our polling this year.
In early August, our survey had Elizabeth Warren narrowly trailing by 44% to 47% for Brown. This new survey and recent public polls clearly confirm an unmistakable trend in Warren’s favor.
Another intriguing result suggests that Warren has a higher vote ceiling than Brown. Besides the 50% now supporting her, an additional 6% of voters say there is “a fair chance” they might support Warren – for a total prospective vote of 56%. In the case of Brown, besides his 44% vote, an additional 4% of voters say there is “a fair chance” they might support Brown – for a total prospective vote of 48%.
Further underscoring the momentum in Warren’s favor are a pair of survey questions that are key leading indicators. When asked if they are more or less likely to vote for Warren based on what they have seen or heard in the past few weeks, a 47% plurality of voters say they are more likely to support Warren versus 42% less likely – a net differential of +5% in her favor.
However, the result is reversed in the case of Scott Brown. Just 39% say they are more likely to vote for Brown based on what they have heard lately, versus 48% who say they are less likely to vote for him – a net differential of -9% against Brown.
This is a revealing contrast that shows the swing in voter sentiment from Brown to Warren, and rarely do we see a less likely result as high as 48%. This movement toward Warren and voters’ souring on Brown clearly indicates that the Massachusetts electorate is alienated from Brown’s recent tactics and TV ads.
The bottom line is that this Senate election is not over, but momentum counts heavily in campaigns and Elizabeth Warren has become the clear favorite in Massachusetts.
- AMEN 2012 PT!
- IOWA - PRESIDENT [Obama +2]
Obama - 49
Romney - 47
- A ten point jump in consumer confidence is big.
A five point swing towards Obama in Iowa is also big.
- [quote]Consumer and Investor Confidence Soars Following Jobs Report
Monday, October 08, 2012
On Friday, the government reported a decline in the unemployment rate to 7.8%, the lowest level in more than three years. Over the weekend, consumer and investor confidence jumped to levels nearing the high water marks of 2012.
The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, gained seven points on Monday to 93.2. That’s an increase of 11 points since Friday’s jobs report. Overall, confidence is up four points from a week ago, up nine points from a month ago and up three points from three months ago.
- Latino Decisions [Obama +52]
Obama - 72
Romney - 20
[quote]Republicans fail to increase their image among Latinos
by Latino Decisions on 10/08/2012
The latest impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll released today revealed a continued trend in support for President Obama, and increased dissatisfaction with Republican outreach towards Latino voters, with a possible opening for Romney on his education plan.
Overall, seventy-two percent of Latino voters said that if the election were held today they will vote for Barack Obama, compared to just 20% for Romney. When asked who was to blame for lack of progress in the economic recovery, an overwhelming majority (60%) blamed partisan gridlock in Congress while only 15% named Obama and 14% blamed Republicans. In evaluating Congress, 55% of Latinos had a favorable view of Democrats in Congress and 24% had a favorable view of Republicans in Congress. The seventh wave of the tracking poll was in the field September 28-October 4.
In terms of 2012 vote for the House of Representatives, support for congressional Democrats stayed steady, with 68% of respondents saying they are planning to vote Democrat in the upcoming election, compared to 18% planning to vote Republican.
After months of an intense campaign, the Republican Party has not been able to move the dial on how Latinos perceive outreach towards the community, while Democrats continue to be on the rise. For the most part, the numbers remained steady for both parties, with 50% of voters saying that Republicans “don’t care too much” when asked if they were doing a good job of reaching out to Hispanics/Latinos, compared to 16% who felt they were doing a good job and 17% who said the Republicans were hostile towards Latinos. For Democrats, the numbers were opposite; with 65% saying they felt Democrats were doing a good job compared to 22% who said they “don’t care too much,” and 5% who said they were hostile.
- VIRGINIA - SENATE [Kaine +7]
Public Policy Polling
Kaine (D) - 51
Allen (R) - 44
[quote]Tim Kaine has now broken open a 51-44 advantage over George Allen
There's been a big shift over the last three weeks in Virginia. After months of polling showing a tied race, Tim Kaine has now broken open a 51-44 advantage over George Allen. Just three weeks ago the candidates were separated by only a point at 47-46.
The big shift over the last three weeks has been with independent voters, who've gone from being effectively tied to supporting Kaine by a 53/40 margin. Kaine's also cut Allen's lead with white voters almost in half from 16 points at 55-39 to 9 points at 52-43. Any Democrat who can hold a Republican to a single digit advantage with white voters in Virginia is going to win handily. Kaine's also leading with both women (53-41) and men (49-47).
Three weeks ago Allen's favorability was 41/41 and now it's 44/45, not a particularly significant shift. The movement towards Kaine has more to do with voters warming up to him. 50% see him favorably now to 41% with a negative opinion, up from a 42/44 spread on our last poll. Kaine's in the driver's seat heading into the last month of this race.
- WISCONSIN - SENATE [Baldwin +3]
Public Policy Polling
Baldwin (D) - 49
Thompson (R) - 46
The Wisconsin Senate race has been very steady over the last month. Tammy Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson by a 3 point margin, 49-46. PPP's done three polls there since Labor Day and Baldwin's held a 3-4 point lead in every one of them.
No one would have imagined six months ago that Baldwin would have a bigger lead in Wisconsin than Barack Obama. But Thompson has proven to be quite a weak candidate. Only 43% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Those numbers are quite a bit worse than Mitt Romney's 49/48 spread in the state.
Wisconsin voters only say they want a Democratic controlled Senate by a 46/45 margin, suggesting that Thompson might be running a couple points worse than an average Republican candidate would be.
Baldwin leads mostly thanks to a 52/40 advantage with independent voters. She's up big with women (50/43) while managing to run about even with men, trailing only 48-47. She's running even with white voters at 47% and leads with non-whites 65-30.
It seems unlikely this race will ever turn into a blowout for Baldwin, but since taking the lead three weeks ago she's done a good job of holding onto it and looks like the nominal favorite in this race.
- Must we see Rassmussy so prominently positioned? Their methodology, results and political stance, combined with analyses of past polls compared to election results, indicates they are at least in part propagandistic.
But thanks for the thread.
- Wisconsin is amazing; I had assumed that Tommy Thompson would cruise to victory. Way to go, Badgers!
- Yes, I know that, R9.
The reason I put the Rasmussen poll first was because it may be big proof that the Romney bump is subsiding. Romney was ahead in Rasmussen for 2 days, and now that lead has vanished.
- COLORADO - PRESIDENT [Obama +1]
Obama - 49
Romney - 48
Monday, October 08, 2012
The Colorado presidential race remains neck-and-neck as President Obama moves slightly ahead of Mitt Romney for the first time this year.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters shows the president with 49% of the vote to Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
- Early voting in Iowa is very strong for Democrats. We're ahead 62% to 20%, Dem to Rep.
Republicans are ahead in NC.
- [quote]VIRGINIA - SENATE [Kaine +7]
[quote]Public Policy Polling
[quote]Kaine (D) - 51
[quote]Allen (R) - 44
It's worth noting that Kaine opened up this lead despite fucking up in his debate against Allen.
Obama At 51% Approval
- FLORIDA - SENATE [Nelson +11]
Nelson (D) - 52
Mack (R) - 41
Monday, October 08, 2012
Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson is pulling away in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, now crossing the 50% mark for the first time.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Nelson earning 52% of the vote, while Republican Connie Mack picks up 41% support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Nelson held a 47% to 40% advantage over Mack, a U.S. congressman, in August and September.
Because the gap between Nelson and Mack has widened, this race moves from Leans Democrat to Safe Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power Rankings and further highlights the likelihood that Democrats will retain control of the Senate.
The presidential race in Florida, however, remains a Toss-Up, with Mitt Romney ahead of President Obama by just two points.
Ninety-three percent (93%) of likely Florida voters say they are certain to vote this election cycle. Among these voters, it's Nelson 51%, Mack 44%.
- Gallup [Obama +5]
Obama - 50% (+1)
Romney - 45% (-1)
Obama Approval (51%) +3
Obama Disapproval (44%) -2
- MASSACHUSETTS - PRESIDENT [Obama +30]
Western NE University
Obama - 63
Romney - 33
Monday, October 08, 2012
Democratic President Barack Obama’s lead over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is growing in Massachusetts, and is now up to 30 points, according to a new poll conducted by the Western New England University Polling Institute for The Republican and MassLive.com.
The poll, conducted Sept. 28 - Oct. 4, finds Obama getting support from 63 percent of likely Massachusetts voters compared to 33 percent for Romney, with 3 percent undecided. The poll does not take into account the impact of the first presidential debate - in which Romney was widely viewed as the winner - since only one night of polling was done after that.
- Interesting. So Gallup now thinks that Romney's convention bounce has vanished, possibly because of Friday's jobs report. Poor Mitt.
- [and remember gallup leans right]
- With that wide a disparity in Latino voters, the Repubs are going to have a very difficult time winning the White House and the Senate, and may have a hard time retaining the House.
After all, there is an ever diminishing number of old, white, bitter, narrow-minded, racist, homophobic fucks out there.
- A new national poll from Pew has Romney up by 4. Their last poll had Obama up by 8. It will be interesting to see which poll is the outlier: Gallup or Pew.
- CNN is salivating over the Pew poll with Romney ahead, they think it's turned the race around and Romney's now unbeatable. I hate CNN.
- Poll Troll, can you please explain what we can conclude from these poll disparities today?
- Thanks for the reports, PT.
I wish people would actually read them.
- Romney gaining momentum!
- Your breasts are gaining downward momentum, R27.
- Heehee R28!
- The Pew poll seems off. It shows Romney tied with women and leading with young voters, while no other poll has shown this. They also have a +5 Republican sample, while their last poll had a +10 Democrat sample.
Pew was an outlier before the debate, too. They had Obama up +8, while every other poll had Obama up by less. Does anyone really think that Romney jumped 12-points in a couple of days?
- Could the media be any more transparent? They want nothing more than a horse race and will do or say anything to make that a reality. They'll talk about this Pew poll ad naseum for the next week.
- True R30 and R31, I wonder if anyone will mention that Gallup has Obama ahead today 50-45.
- Daily Kos says that their new poll to be released tomorrow also shows Romney in the lead, but they caution that most of the polling was done on Thur. and Fri.
- Yeah, the Pew is bullshit. Nate Silver is laughing this flap off.
- [quote]They also have a +5 Republican sample, while their last poll had a +10 Democrat sample.
I noticed this as well. I didn't believe the earlier Obama +8 poll, as much as I wanted to. Pew is a trusted polling outfit, but I'm not comfortable with what seem to be odd discrepancies to me.
- Romney's a fucking liar. When will the public catch on to this? After the know-nothing's elect him?
Mitt Romney has delivered a lot of dishonest speeches in recent months, but Monday’s address on foreign policy may be the most mendacious yet.
It was expected that he would distort President Obama into a caricature of Jimmy Carter. But it was astonishing to watch Romney spin a daydream of himself as some latter-day George Marshall, bringing peace, prosperity, and hope to a chaotic world—this from a man who couldn’t drop in on the London Olympics without alienating our closest ally and turning himself into a transcontinental laughingstock.
To the extent that Romney recited valid criticisms of Obama’s policies, he offered no alternatives. To the extent he spelled out specific steps he would take to deal with one problem or another, he merely recited actions that Obama has already taken.
- [quote]Could the media be any more transparent? They want nothing more than a horse race and will do or say anything to make that a reality. They'll talk about this Pew poll ad naseum for the next week.
And, as if on cue, that is precisely what NBC Nightly News did. They got the numbers that they needed to make a barely plausible case that this is a horse race, and that is what they led with. But -- as they cautioned -- things could change again! So, stay tuned!!!
- the right wing apparently doesn't mouth off about the polls being inaccurate when they appear to favor their candidate?
- Amid Volatile Polling, Keep an Eye on Election Fundamentals
By NATE SILVER
After a summer in which the polling in the presidential race was exceptionally stable — with Barack Obama generally holding a lead of about two percentage points in national surveys — the numbers since the party conventions have been a wild ride.
Mr. Obama got a bounce coming out of Charlotte, and it had some staying power — with his national lead appearing to peak at about five or six percentage points. But polling released immediately after the debate seemed to suggest that Mr. Romney had drawn into a rough national tie.
By the weekend, however — after the release of a favorable jobs report last Friday — Mr. Romney’s bounce seemed to be receding some. Tracking polls released on Monday by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports actually showed a shift back toward Mr. Obama, although another poll by Pew Research showed Mr. Romney with a four-point lead among likely voters.
Polling data is often very noisy, and not all polls use equally rigorous methodology. But the polls, as a whole, remain consistent with the idea that they may end up settling where they were before the conventions, with Mr. Obama ahead by about two points. Such an outcome would be in line with what history and the fundamentals of the economy would lead you to expect.
Because economic data can be as noisy as the polls, the FiveThirtyEight forecast model uses seven different economic statistics to calibrate its predictions. Some of these make a more favorable case for Mr. Obama than others. The stock market has shown very strong growth over the course of his term, especially in the past six months. Inflation has been low, although gas prices have sometimes been an exception. And the manufacturing sector of the economy has been reasonably sound.
- [bold]Romney surging nationally after biggest debate win in recorded history, polls show[/bold]
- Four years ago, in endorsing Democrat Barack Obama for president, we noted his intellect, his temperament and equanimity under pressure. He was unproven, but we found him to be presidential, in all that that word implies.
In that, we have not been disappointed. This is a serious man. And now he is a proven leader. He has earned a second term.
Mr. Obama sees an America where the common good is as important as the individual good. That is the vision on which the nation was founded. It is the vision that has seen America through its darkest days and illuminated its best days. It is the vision that underlies the president's greatest achievement, the Affordable Care Act. Twenty years from now, it will be hard to find anyone who remembers being opposed to Obamacare.
He continues to steer the nation through the most perilous economic challenges since the Great Depression. Those who complain that unemployment remains high, or that economic growth is too slow, either do not understand the scope of the catastrophe imposed upon the nation by Wall Street and its enablers, or they are lying about it.
To expect Barack Obama to have repaired, in four years, what took 30 years to undermine, is simply absurd. He might have gotten further had he not been saddled with an opposition party, funded by plutocrats, that sneers at the word compromise. But even if Mr. Obama had had Franklin Roosevelt's majorities, the economy would still be in peril.
Extraordinary, perhaps existential, economic challenges lie just beyond Election Day. The nation's $16 trillion debt must be addressed, but in ways that do not endanger the sick and elderly, or further erode the middle class or drive the poor deeper into penury.
The social Darwinist solutions put forward by Republican Mitt Romney and his running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, are not worthy of this nation's history, except that part of it known as the Gilded Age.
Mr. Obama has not been everything we expected. In his first weeks in office, Democrats ran amok with part of his economic stimulus package. His mortgage relief program was insufficient. Together with his Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, the president has been too deferential to the financial industry. The president should have moved to nationalize troubled banks instead of structuring the bailout to their benefit. Regulatory agencies and the Justice Department were unable to bring financial crooks to heel.
- [quote]If more Americans were paying attention, this election would not be close. Barack Obama would win going away, at least 53 to 47, perhaps even 99 to 1.
- Poll Troll, I'm curious now why there is a second Gallup poll that has them tied (3 day tracker). Interestingly RealClearPolitics is now posting that one. I'm a bit surprised that the three day is a tie and yet Obama seems to have gained in the seven day implying that the most recent day was a bigger Obama day.
- Mitt Romney shouldn't even be tied! Obama is in trouble.
I truly believe that the country has bought into the Right's jobs/unemployment numbers conspiracy theories.
Romney spat on 50% of the country, and he's neck and neck with the current sitting president.
I hope Obama gets his shit together, and stops letting this idiot spew his lies for another hour and half.
Biden is the next up to debate. Expect Romney to be up 15 points after that.
Obama needs to hit a home run for his next debate -- but the majority of the public only watches that first debate, and that debate got great ratings.
If Romney pulls off a win after all this, America is the dumbest Western country on the planet.
- [quote]With that wide a disparity in Latino voters, the Repubs are going to have a very difficult time winning the White House and the Senate, and may have a hard time retaining the House.
How many Latinos vote though? Remember, the election is won by the electoral college. How many states do Latinos make up a hefty sum of the population?
If all minorities voted, the Republican party would cease to exist.
- [quote]Daily Kos says that their new poll to be released tomorrow also shows Romney in the lead, but they caution that most of the polling was done on Thur. and Fri.
Kos is a joke, and was outed for using fake polling companies.
- r44, are you even American?
- Lying liar.
- This is a good thing. The more the polls show gains for Romney, the more Obama supporters will be spurred into action.
The best thing the media can do for our side is keep pretending like national polls matter and make it looks like Obama is in trouble.
- There will be a backlash against the media by Democrats if they don't stop trying to affect the outcome of the election rather than just report on it. They really are out of control.
The over-the-top punditry after the debate was criminal, and I include MSNBC in that, too.
- The interesting thing is, Dems seem to have their balls back, but their leader doesn't. I still cannot fathom how Obama stood there for an hour and a half and let Romney lie, and lie, and lie. Those lies, the ones he's been telling for months now, have been proven to be true in the public's mind, since the other guy didn't dispute them. I'd even accept Obama coming out and saying that he had taken too much cold medicine, SOMETHING to explain that now infamous fucked up non-responsive performance he gave.
- I agree, r51. I need to know why he let Shitt lie without calling him out.
- [quote]Kos is a joke, and was outed for using fake polling companies.
Not this lie again. Sheesh... Kos themselves spotted that their polling organization was lying *to them*. They sued and they switched polling organizations. Their polls are valid now and have been for a couple of years.
- R53 is right.
- r45, which is why we are putting them on a conveyor belt to get them to the polls.
- Obama will be back strong.
- What a surprise; the rightwingnuts bleat about the skew in the polls, and then a couple of the most idealogical organizations come out with radically different results. Why, I'm shocked, just shocked, even though they hew from polar opposites of the spectrum yet are reporting the same thing.
- NORTH DAKOTA - PRESIDENT [Romney +14]
Romney - 54
Obama - 40
NORTH DAKOTA - SENATE [Tie]
Heitkamp (D) - 47
Berg (R) - 47
- MICHIGAN - PRESIDENT [Obama +3]
Obama - 48
Romney - 45
MICHIGAN - SENATE [Stabenow +20]
Stabenow (D) - 55
Hoekstra (R) - 35\t
- Romney's winning Colorado and Florida now.
- [quote]Romney's winning Colorado and Florida now.
Obama is ahead in the 2 most recent Colorado polls, and Florida is still close.
- DL homosexuals, like most 'out' homosexuals, are incredibly stupid to think that it actaully makes any difference which one wins!
The same program _ more wars, more taxes and inflatia, less freedom_ will continue and get worse with either 'candidate'.
- ANother reason to despise MPC.
- Its over.Obama has lost the election. There is no way he will recover. Andrew Sullivan and others are right.
The election is lost.
- r64 is a nutjob.
- Im a nutjob for stating the truth? You don't come back from a 16 point swing 4 Weeks from the election.
- r61, the polls Rachel Maddow used last night showed Romney leading in Colorado.
- r62, tell that to your grandchildren who will have no medical care or social security if it is deconstructed by Republicans.
Lady, you are one fucking idiot.
- R67, I'm surprised Rachel wouldn't mention that the last 2 polls, Rasmussen and University of Denver show Obama leading in Colorado. In fact, Obama actually went UP in Colorado in Rasmussen.
- TUESDAY OCTOBER 9
[quote]ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: Favorability
[quote]A Popularity High for Romney –but Ditto for Obama
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2012
Mitt Romney reached his highest personal popularity of the election campaign among registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll – but not by enough to lift his head above water, nor to surpass Barack Obama, who reached his own best favorability rating of the season.
Night-to-night data indicate a sizable boost for Romney, and drop for Obama, on Thursday night, a day after their first debate, which Romney widely is seen as having won. But both of those trends subsequently subsided in this poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday.
The net effect is slight at best. Romney is now seen favorably by 47 percent of registered voters overall, unfavorably by 51 percent; Obama’s rating is better, 55-44 percent. Changes for both candidates from their pre-debate levels (Romney 44-49 percent, Obama 52-45 percent) are not statistically significant, given the surveys’ margin of sampling error.
Romney’s 47 percent favorability is numerically the most in 18 ABC/Post polls since September 2011. But he remains underwater for the 13th time in those 18 surveys. (He’s been above water three times, not since January, and even twice.)
- Four previous candidates have been underwater in popularity at roughly this point in available data back to 1980: losing Democratic candidates John Kerry in late September 2004, Walter Mondale in October 1984 and Jimmy Carter in September 1980; and Republican George H.W. Bush in October 1992. In another gauge, though, just one incumbent postwar president has been re-elected with a job performance rating as low as Obama’s at roughly this time, George W.
Bush in 2004. (The same may have been true for Harry S. Truman; data are insufficient.)
Obama’s 55 percent favorability is numerically its highest since spring 2010. Better employment numbers on Friday may have provided some respite from his debate performance; among other groups, he’s at his best since March among middle- and upper-middle income earners.
More fundamentally, the results of this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, suggest a rallying in some of each candidate’s usual affinity groups. Romney’s favorability ratings are his best to date among conservatives. Obama, in turn, is at his best of the election season among moderates, and his best since taking office among Democrats.
Among other groups, Obama’s reached highs in favorability for this election season among whites, married men and college-educated registered voters, and matched his previous best since taking office among men overall and seniors. Romney’s at a new high among women, unmarried men and adults older than 50 who are registered to vote.
Part of Obama’s advantage in overall popularity stems from the fact that more registered voters identify themselves as Democrats than as Republicans; it’s 36-29 percent in this survey, with 32 percent saying they’re independents. Partisan divisions in the 2008 exit poll were also +7 percentage points Democratic, 39-32 percent.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone Oct. 4-7, 2012, among a random national sample of 845 registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 4 points, including design effect. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.
- CONNECTICUT - SENATE [Murphy +5]
Murphy (D) 51%
McMahon (R) 46%
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy has now moved to five-point lead over Republican businesswoman Linda McMahon in Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Connecticut Voters shows Murphy with 51% of the vote, while McMahon earns 46% support. Two percent (2%) favor another candidate in the race, and one percent (1%) is undecided.
The two candidates met in a debate last night. It’s important to note that this poll was conducted before the debate.
Additionally, Murphy’s lead is largely derived from “leaners.” These are people who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but indicate they are leaning towards one candidate when asked a follow-up question. Without leaners, it’s Murphy 46% and McMahon 45%. This is consistent with the notion that the state’s underlying Democratic tilt will help Murphy in the final analysis.
- I think it's very fortunate (and foolish) that Romney has laid out his foreign policy plans. This gives Obama a chance to dissect the plans before the next debate.
Obama should still be prepared for complete turn-arounds and switch-ups, and he needs to attack all of these forcefully.
- [quote]Im a nutjob for stating the truth? You don't come back from a 16 point swing 4 Weeks from the election.
You do if that poll is an outlier and if the polling sample from the second poll is badly flawed. Once you look at the internals of the two polls, the 12-point swing in the Pew poll looks much better. Basically, the election is a tie.
- [bold]There are two smarter questions to ask about the Pew poll. [/bold]First, is it really likely that Mr. Romney leads the race by 4 points right now? The consensus of the evidence, particularly the national tracking polls, would suggest otherwise. Instead, the forecast model’s conclusion is that the whole of the data is still consistent with a very narrow lead for Mr. Obama, albeit one that is considerably diminished since Denver.
It might be granted that the situation is more ambiguous than usual right now. But our forecast model looks at literally all of the polls; it estimates Mr. Romney’s post-debate bounce as being 2.5 percentage points, not quite enough to erase Mr. Obama’s pre-debate advantage.
The other valid line of inquiry concerns the timing of the poll. The Pew poll was conducted from Thursday through Sunday, although more of the interviews were conducted in the earlier part of that period. There’s nothing in the poll that really refutes the story that Mr. Romney initially received a very large bounce after the debate (perhaps somewhere on the order of 4 or 5 points, if not quite as large as Pew shows it), which has since faded some between the news cycle turning over and the favorable jobs report on Friday.
[bold]The evidence that Mr. Romney’s bounce is receding some is only modestly strong[/bold] — as opposed to the evidence that he got a significant bounce in the first place, which is very strong. Still, the order in which polls are published does not exactly match the order in which they were actually conducted — and at turning points in the race, these details can make a difference.
[bold]The last thing to consider is that the fundamentals of the race aren’t consistent with a 4-point lead for Mr. Romney. [/bold]Instead, the most recent economic numbers, and Mr. Obama’s approval ratings, would seem to point to an election in which he is the slight favorite. ...
- I can't believe that Romney has high favorability ratings after all this!!!
- This is stressing me out too much. I used to be a poll watcher but it's all stressing me out. I'm only coming to this thread because you're all putting it in a perspective I like to her. (Realistic or not, it's what I need.)
[quote]Obama Lead Rebounds On Gallup's 7-Day Rolling Average
- Rasmussen Tracking\t [Tie]
Obama - 48
Romney - 48
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
Romney’s support is a bit more solid than the president’s at this point in time. Forty-five percent (45%) of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their minds. Forty-one percent (41%) are certain they will vote for Obama.
Today’s results will show Romney slightly ahead in the 11 key swing states. This is a significant change. For virtually the entire campaign, Obama has done better in the swing states than in the national averages. It remains to be seen whether this is a lasting change in the race or merely a temporary aberration.
- Thank Sweet Jebus for PT12!
- So, if 3% is undecided and the Democrats can get 4% more voters to the polls, LANDSLIDE OBAMA?
- All of this is great news for those of us who support Romney.
Can someone start a thread for Romney supporters? I know there are sensitive folks here who will flame us for expressing joy at the good news and I don't want to rub it in.
I also don't want to spend $18 bucks to start the thread. If someone can start a general "Romney Supporters" thread - that's be awesome.
Thanks in advance.
- Well, since this is DL, if there was a Romney supporters thread the people who don't support Mittens would post disparaging things there. There is just no way to avoid it.
We want to spare you. We don't want to see your hopes dashed and expose you to the cruelty and the treachery of the more vicious aspects of DL.
If you truly love and want to celebrate your candidate. You should invest in the paltry sum of $18 and post your thread. It is not without it's downside as I have pointed out, but isn't MIttens worth $18?
- Oh, no, r83, I posted the self loathing cheap fuck thread for them as you implied.
Spare them not!
- Are you a member of the Facebook datalounge page r82?
- I am getting so stressed. Obama and his Team should be preparing for the next debates virtually 24/7 now, with Bill Clinton as the coach. If Obama loses, he will be viewed in history as one of the worst candidates for president from a major party in history because before the debates, he clearly was in command. He blew off the darn Wednesday debate and was painfully unprepared, and the American people are judging him harshly for it.
- Actually, freepstain, he didn't blow it off. He prepared extensively despite his presidential duties, but at the eleventh hour his inner circle told him to 'law low' and not be combative. Which was a mistake.
That said, he is still ahead, Romney's bounce is fading and he did not change the race. He's done.
- oh dear oh dear oh dear!!!
- [quote]Columbus NBC Poll: Ohio Statistical Deadheat
An Ohio Poll shows Romney pulling near even with Obama
Obama - 45
Romney - 44
- I hope people realize that the polling craze that's going on is part of the Rove strategy. Give the perception the election is a dead heat, too close to call, so it will be easier to steal.
The flawwed survey questions, the "push polling," the use of landlines, and biased polling samples all contribute to a false picture.
The utility in this is also to start a "bandwagon" stampede towards Romney. The fact that that hasn't happened tells you that Obama is going to0 win this. He can win it without FLA, NC, & VA, too. I say there will be a 35% spread and he'll get around 303.
- People need to realize that the Republican party appeals to a very small, narrow segment of the population, and the only way they can ever win an election is to suppress the vote, lie, cheat, and steal, and get people to vote against their own interests.
Throw a generous dollop of fear and division into their tactics as well. As Bill Clinton once said, "When you have two guys competing for your vote, and one offers Hope, the other offers Fear, go with Hope."
- Amazingly great news, r89. Thank you! If ROmney takes Ohio then he can lose some other states and we can win over Obama.
I hope he keeps it up.
- Donate today!
- Someone started your thread, r92 -- hie thee away!
- You're new tactic isn't working, R82/R92.
- The title is offensive. I just asked poliutley for a thread called "Romney Supporters Thread". I'm not going to post in thee.
- Romney closing gap in PA.
- washington times = worse than FOX
- [quote]People need to realize that the Republican party appeals to a very small, narrow segment of the population, and the only way they can ever win an election is to suppress the vote, lie, cheat, and steal, and get people to vote against their own interests.
Keep telling yourself that. The U.S. is a center-RIGHT country.
Check out the red states of CA, NY, and MA
Democrats have NEVER had such a landslide.
- There is no need to worry about PA.
- WBUR Poll: Brown Leads Warren By 4 Points
- So much for all that talk that debates aren't important, if voters can be swayed by one debate after all the shit that Romney has done and everything that has been uncovered about Bain, his taxes, the 47 percent controversy, then Obama and Biden will have to REALLY crush R&R in the debates so that they won't be able to recover.
- New Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama job approval jumps to 53%. h
- [quote][and remember gallup leans right]
- Howard Fineman said that professional debate coaches had Obama fully prepared for last week's debate, and then Axelrod and Plouffe stepped in at the last minute and told Obama to play it safe and not to attack Romney. The rest is history.
- I mean that should be obvious R105. Of course Obama was fully prepared for the debate, only a fool would think he wouldn't have been. They obviously had a specific strategy to be calm and not "make news". He was the front runner and the front-runner doesn't want to make news. It worked in a sense, Obama said nothing in that debate that Republicans could use or that could hurt him. Just not as well as they hoped.
- Why aren't Democrats and liberals demanding that Obama and Company make debating the #1 priority right now? Remember, how Repubs publicly scolded Romney last month and told him he had to get his act together and do several things to keep from losing. Where is the Democratic accountability toward Team Obama to ensure that they are not blowing off more debates and have a winning debate preparation plan that is nothing like the plan they had for the first debates?Axelrod and Plouffe may be ok when it comes to some aspects of running a campaign, but their debate strategy has been a debacle, and they should remove themselves from debate strategizing.
Moreover, why aren't more debates demanding that Obama clear his schedule and make debates his ultimate priority? Repubs know how critical the debates are, that is why Romney started practicing in July and brought in some of the nation's best debate coaches. Dems know Obama stunk last week, but seem to be impotent when it comes to demanding evidence that it will not happen again. Wake up, Team Obama! Less than 3 weeks left now.
- I meant less than 4 weeks left now!
- Obama's team better get its shit together quick, I don't know if he can trust Axelrod and Plouffe to make the right decisions anymore, they always want to play it safe - he needs to do whatever it was those professional debate coaches told him and do it FORCEFULLY against Mittens in the next debate because the public is pretty fucking stupid and only cares about appearances apparently.
- Stop crossposting, r107.
- But Nate Silver says. . . . .
Evillene (cackling her fat ass off)
- The problem is Obama can't outright fire Axelrod and Plouffe without the media broadcasting that Obama has the stench of death around him and is shifting furniture on the Titanic. However, he can discreetly demote them to have no influence on debate prep. If OBama loses, liberals and Democrats will despise them for decades. They messed up the country with their transparently bad debate advice.
- I meant a 3-5 % spread not a 35% spread.
- Potentially Ominous Sign For Romney In Today's Gallup Numbers
October 9, 2012 | 1:32 pm
While the twitter-verse was ablaze with the news that Romney seized the lead in Gallup's tracker of likely voters, the underlying data hinted at troubling news for Romney. After making big gains among registered voters following the debates, Gallup's most recent days of tracking have shown a shift back in the president's direction, with Obama returning to pre-debate levels.
Similarly, Gallup's 3-day approval tracker found the president reaching 53 percent, suggesting that the president fared pretty well in interviews on Saturday, as well.
Ultimately, this is just two nights of tracking, but it's consistent with the movement in Rasmussen's tracker, Obama's strong performance in Colorado and Iowa in Rasmussen's Sunday polls, and PPP's tweets about the evolution of their samples. If confirmed by other pollsters, there's a chance that Romney's impressive bounce might prove short-lived.
- Some people are talking as if the debate was a disaster. It wasn't. No, it wasn't a great performance by Obama, but he didn't make a terrible gaffe, he didn't say anything that wasn't true, and he didn't have a memory lapse (the way Rick Perry did during the primaries where he couldn't remember all of the departments he would cut). There may not have been any great moments for Obama during the debate, but there weren't any bad moments either.
I can't imagine that people would say, "I agree with Obama on the issues and I think he's been a good president, but he seemed kind of tired and 'off' during the debate, so I guess I have no choice but to vote for Romney." And if people really are saying that, then there's no hope for this country.
- Exactly R115, Obama had a underwhelming debate performance that allowed Mitt Romney some good news cycle coverage and of course gave a bounce in the polls. However he did not have any gaffes that could have been a REAL game changer and actually haunt him up until the election. People need to keep perspective.
- Plus we KNEW a bump was coming, based on the initial reactions that Romney "won" the first debate. The recent polls reflect that.
End of story.
The polls NEXT week will reflect other things (like, hopefully a whiny-baby Paul Ryan getting his ass handed to him by Joe B.)
The there will be polls the week AFTER that. Showing god knows what.
Karl Rove is laughing with glee at all the hand-wringing today, and Andy Sullivan's post. It's EXACTLY what the power brokers of the GOP wanted.
- I just don't get how one debate performance can overshadow Romney's poor performance abroad, his lackluster convention, his 47% secret video and his lack of being forthcoming with his tax returns. In the meantime despite a poor debate performance the unemployment rate has gone down along with our deficit.
What the fuck???
- If Obama supporters are this fickle, he's finished, and you queens know it!
The Dems haven't been fired up about voting since 2008.
So sad that Obama picked this point to collapse, but what can you do?
My life will suck either way, it will just suck a whole hell of a lot more with Romney in office.
- r118 - that is a very good question.
The reason seems to be that Obama's support was simply not that strong. It should be able to withstand this. I know I am not changing my mind.
- [quote]Howard Fineman said that professional debate coaches had Obama fully prepared for last week's debate, and then Axelrod and Plouffe stepped in at the last minute and told Obama to play it safe and not to attack Romney. The rest is history.
R105. And Obama couldn't have adjusted his strategy in the middle of the debate when he realized he was getting steamrolled?! For christssakes, he was fucking up and just stood there taking fucking notes!
Obama didn't have to get angry, but he could have fought back and showed some backbone. His lack of strength is why the current polls are turning away from him. Americans don't care about issues. They care about winning--and looking like you're a winner.
- R121 I don't think Obama was prepared for the round of lies that Romney was throwing all at once. Who would expect someone to literally shoot one false statement after another as fast as Romney did. Obama went on ready to address Romney's record and platform. Who knew he was going to have an Etch-A-Sketch moment in front of 53 million people?
I think Obama just didn't know what he should do with it after he was told to lay low.
- And if Obama loses, I guess we can say the Etch-A-Sketch worked?
One more big fuckup from Team Obama and it's all over.
- R122. Don't defend Obama on this one. He's wrong and he fucked up--and he didn't show leadership or strength. Instead, he let this disaster happen and said relatively little in response.
Romney has been lying since he started campaigning six years ago. Obama should have called him on at least some of his lies right there. You don't just stand there taking fucking notes while the other guy is lying even if you are surprised by the attack and amount of lies.
I've been in meetings where I didn't know a colleague would surprise me with something unexpectedly. I may not have said everything that I wanted to due to being surprised...but I didn't just sit there and take bullshit in front of a roomful of people while someone else walked all over me.
- Didn't mean to come off defending him. I think he screwed up big time. I just think that's what happened.
I do agree with the poster who pointed out that his poor performance should not compare with all of Romney's lies, mistatements, lack of handing in tax returns and his 47% comments.
- Obama thought he should go into the debate without rocking the boat. Too bad the boat capsized.
- [bold]Obama thought he should go into the debate without rocking the boat. Too bad the boat capsized.[/bold]
Typical Democratic cowardice.
let's revisit polls next week.
and then the week after.
and the week after that.
and then march our asses down to our local voting places and VOTE, god damnit
- President Obama retained the lead in a big prize on the electoral map, Ohio, according to a poll released Tuesday by CNN.
Obama leads Romney 51 percent to 47 percent in the Buckeye State, a smaller advantage than the president has had in the state during the last few weeks of polling. But with Romney surging nationally on a good performance in the first presidential debate, the CNN numbers contradict four other polls fielded after the event that showed the race within 1 point, and Romney leading three of them.
CNN pointed to the gender gap as the reason for Obama’s lead — the president is up 22 points with women, while Romney leads men by 14 points. Obama also leads 50 percent to Romney’s 46 percent among independent voters.
The results put the overall PollTracker Average of the race in Ohio at a 1.9 percent lead for the president.
- OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +4]
Obama - 51
Romney - 47
In Ohio, interviews with 1,020 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on October 5-8, 2012. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The Ohio sample also includes 888 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points) and 722 interviews among likely voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points). In Ohio, 760 interviews were conducted among landline respondents and 260 interviews among cell phone respondents.
- Well that's good news, even if his lead in Ohio is a little less than before. Romney's national unfavorable number is still high at 51 percent.
- NEW HAMPSHIRE - PRESIDENT [Obama +6]
Obama - 47
Romney - 41
[quote]Poll shows Romney closing gap with Obama
Turnout expected to be major factor in race
DURHAM, N.H. —
A new poll shows the presidential race in New Hampshire has tightened up.
The latest WMUR Granite State Poll shows that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Barack Obama and now trails by 6 points, compared to 15 points last week.
The poll shows Obama leading 47 to 41 percent, with 9 percent saying they are undecided. Obama's lead shrank after a debate performance many said was weak, though 57 percent of the respondents in the poll weighed in before the debate.
The poll of 559 likely voters was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from Sept. 30 through Oct. 6 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
"With 30 days left, I think this is a jump ball," said pollster Andy Smith. "I think the difference will still be turnout, which party is able to motivate their more marginal supporters out to the polls. And, watch where the independents go."
The poll indicates Romney's resurgence is largely due to female voters giving him a second look.
"Historically, women have been going strongly for Democrats, and they have been going very, very strongly for Obama," Smith said.
But Smith said things are shifting in a big way among female voters. Last week, the president held a 27-point lead among New Hampshire women, but that number is now down to 9.
"We're seeing that in New Hampshire, and we are seeing that across the country," Smith said. "And I think that this means that this election is in a very, very different position now that it was two weeks ago."
Despite the shift, a majority of voters still think Obama will win, with 61 percent saying he will be re-elected compared to 25 percent who say Romney will win. In September, 51 percent thought Obama would win.
- Much better numbers overall for Obama.
- I think the CNN poll has to many landlines - which means that Romney's numbers are must likely inflated a bit in that one and therefore Obama is probably doing even better.
- MINNESOTA - PRESIDENT [Obama +10]
Public Policy Polling
Obama - 53
Romney - 43
[quote]Obama leads by 10 in Minnesota
Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest poll of the Presidential race in Minnesota actually finds Barack Obama expanding his lead to 10 points over Mitt Romney at 53-43. Our last poll there in mid-September had found Obama's advantage to be 7 points at 51-44. A majority of the interviews for this poll were conducted Saturday and Sunday.
There's an overwhelming sense in Minnesota as elsewhere that Romney won last week's debate. 64% think he was the victor to only 19% who say Obama. But unlike in other places it hasn't led to a big improvement in Romney's image. Just 42% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 53% with a negative one. That's actually slightly worse than a month ago when he was at 43/51.
Obama has a solid 53/45 approval rating. Voters trust him more than Romney both on the economy (50/44) and on foreign policy (54/41). Obama has a 49/41 lead with independents, has the advantage with both women (56/41) and men (50/45), and has at least a small lead within all four age groups.
“Mitt Romney’s received a bounce nationally after his debate victory last week but not in Minnesota,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barack Obama continues to lead by a healthy margin there.”
- Sanity in Minnesota? You betcha!
- As PPP reports, what's interesting is that Obama actually went up 3 points in Minnesota since last month.
- The polls may hiccup a bit between now and November 6th but the President will win re-election.
People liked Romney's performance in the debate last week but they don't actually like him.
- Rachel Maddow is talking to Nate Silver.
He just said that Romney can win if the Dems don't turnout.
Now with the mess going on in Ohio, I'm thinking that could very well happen.
Especially if they stop the early voting here.
- I'm voting by absentee ballot, no lines.
- [quote]Especially if they stop the early voting here.
It's not going to happen. There's no way the Supreme Court takes that case at this stage of the election. And it's even less likely that the Ohio Republican Secretary of State would prevail.
- [quote]Gary Johnson Spoiler: Latest Presidential Polls Show a Third Party Disaster in the Works for Mitt Romney
Colorado – Latest polls show Johnson with 5%. Obama leads Romney by 0.2%. Ron Paul received 12% in the GOP primary.
Florida – Polls in Florida have yet to include Johnson, but the two major party candidates are tied. Paul received 7% in the primary.
Iowa – As in Florida, there are no polling numbers for Johnson. The president leads Romney by 3.2%. Paul captured 21% of the caucus votes.
Nevada — Latest poll has Johnson with 3%. Here too, Obama leads Romney by 4.6%.Paul took 19% of the caucus vote.
New Hampshire – Johnson is pulling 7% in the Granite State. Obama is leading Romney by 6% and Paul won 23% of the primary vote.
North Carolina – Romney leads Obama by 0.8%. Paul took 11% in the GOP primary.
Ohio – In the latest polls, Johnson received 10.6% support. The president has a 3% lead. Since Paul took 9% during the primary, Johnson could already have captured that support. But then again, maybe not.
Virginia – Latest poll has 4% supporting Johnson. The president has a 0.3% lead. The GOP Virginia primary ballot had two candidates, Romney and Paul. Paul took 40%.
Wisconsin – Johnson is winning the support of 6% of the voters. Here, the president is leading by 6.6%. Paul took 11% during the primary.
- [quote]Voter Registration Gives Democrats Edge in Many Swing States
October 9, 2012
Voter registration ended Tuesday in Colorado, Florida and Ohio, three critical pieces to the electoral battleground puzzle, along with a dozen other states.
An aggressive registration push by President Obama’s campaign produced Democratic advantages in nearly every swing state where registration is cataloged by political party. But in most states, Republicans are cutting into the Democratic margins that helped sweep Mr. Obama into office four years ago, according to preliminary figures from state election officials.
The closing day of registration lured Mr. Obama and Mitt Romney to Ohio, where voters do not specify a political party, but both campaigns pushed hard to get supporters to register.
In Florida, Democrats started the day with a 450,000-voter edge over Republicans, which is down from 610,000 in 2008. In Iowa, preliminary numbers showed that Democrats recorded a 12,000-voter advantage over Republicans, down from a 103,000-voter advantage four years ago.
A survey of election officials in swing states on Tuesday found that Colorado was the only battleground where Republicans had a preliminary advantage over Democrats, by about 14,000 registered voters. But the key to Colorado and other states rests in independents or unaffiliated voters. Final state-by-state figures will be available later this month.
[quote]Registered voters, in millions
- Dems have always been big on Voter Registration campaigns. They seemed to never understand that GOTV was critical. At least in the Clinton elections and the first Obama election we saw a huge improvement in the GOTV operation.
I will say this. Three weeks out is not the time you want to see the race tighten. Three weeks out you want to see your candidate more confident and secure that he is going to take this thing. That's where we were in 2008.
It's obbvious to me, as an old campaign veteran that there's a disconnect between Obama's Washington advisors and his Campaign people. The campaign is well run on the ground. Their ground game remains superior. But the messaging is a problem and has been since 2010.
I don't know if it's worth pointing a finger at Axelrod & Plouffe. But that's who I blame. Obama needs to trust his own instincts and get back in the game. Axelrod & Plouffe didn't have Obama's back in 2010 and they don't now.
Obama started out fine this year. All the stuff that worked for him will still work. They don't need stupid new Big Bird ads. They need to keep running the ads about Romney lying, Bain Capital, Jobs, Medicare, women's issues. The economy. Tax fairness. Wall Street vs. Main Street. People out here are hurting. We don't have time for bullshit.
If people are really "worried" go volunteer. If your state is already too red or too blue go to a neighboring state, go to Ohio, FLA, VA, NC, and work like hell. Stay home & make calls but do something. And on election day you have to get people to the polls.
Turn out is everything. The problem with all this media hype about the bad debate, is that there's a badwagon effect. Sheeple will run towards the perceived winner. We cannot let a Romney victory happen. We cannot. This is bigger than Obama, and Biden. This is about our lives.
- Well said, R145.
If you have not donated or volunteered and Romney wins, consider yourself personally responsible.
- Primetime all day yesterday? Really, Datalounge?
I think we all need to calm down. This non-stop hand-wringing and hysteria is feeding the mainstream media narrative that Obama is losing when he's actually still in the lead, if barely.
Obama needs to take back the initiative and not let Romney pivot to the center with empty rhetoric and contradictions. Hopefully Biden will get them back on message and once that happens I think the polls will stabilize.
- You gurls donate $2,500 to Obama now!
- This is my perspective. There were too many people who were sitting around watching the polls and thought the race was over two weeks ago. Others tried to say stop with the overconfidence bullshit and continue to work hard and volunteer, but were called concern trolls.
The only mistake Obama and his campaign made last week was underestimating Mitt's ability to just outright lie and walk away from his own positions.
But to be frank, the bar was set so low for Romney, showing up was half the battle for him.
Here's the thing, read R145 and pass it along to your friends and make sure everyone votes. Now is the time to stop all the worrying and work harder.
- WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 10
Rasmussen Tracking\t [Romney +1]
Romney - 48
Obama - 47
OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +1]
Obama - 45
Romney - 44
NEVADA - PRESIDENT [Obama +1]
Obama - 47
Romney - 46
- Obama should be preparing for the remaining debates like his life depends on it. He let his supporters down, and we all may suffer for the next four to EIGHT years. If he loses, he will be viewed as the most foolish presidential candidate in all of history. Also viewed as foolish, will be Nate Silver and all who believed and made the premature presumptions that Obama was almost guaranteed to prevail in November. Nate Silver is looking like a con artist now.
- MASSACHUSETTS - SENATE [Warren +2]
Warren (D) - 48
Brown (R) - 46
AMHERST, Mass. – A new political poll conducted by University of Massachusetts Amherst political scientists finds that Elizabeth Warren is holding a narrow 48 to 46 percent lead over Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Scott Brown among likely voters in the race for Senate in Massachusetts. This lead is within the 5 percent margin of error. Warren has a six-point 49 to 43 percent lead among registered voters, the poll says.
The two candidates will hold a televised debate Oct. 10 at Symphony Hall in Springfield in what has become one of the most closely watched U.S. Senate races in the country and one that could determine control of the Senate next year. The UMass poll, an Internet poll conducted by YouGov America, was conducted Oct. 2-8 with a sample of 500 registered voters in Massachusetts.
The UMass Poll is directed by Brian Schaffner along with associate directors Ray La Raja, Tatishe Nteta and Maryann Barakso, all UMass Amherst political scientists.
“In the wake of two debates and a barrage of negative political advertisements, Warren has maintained a narrow lead over Brown among likely voters,” Nteta says. “These results do not bode well for the incumbent Brown whose support among registered voters is well below 50 percent with less than four weeks until Election Day. Given the small percentage of ‘undecideds’ in the contest, Brown faces a difficult, but not insurmountable, path to reelection.”
- Obama's up in Nevada, what??
- Amongst the 11 percent of Ohio voters who have ALREADY voted, Obama has 59-39 percent lead, according to Survey USA. Obama really needs to push early voting with his base.
- Now that's information, R154!
We need about 20% for a reasonable sample size. Looks like we're on our way.
That is tremendously good news so far, if it's true.
BTW: Everyone get your fucking asses out there and make sure people are registered. If anyone needs a ride to the polls, you can take at least 3, right?
Visit barackobama.com to find out how you can help in your area.
- We really need to get 40 percent of voters to vote early in swing states. This is a good sign in Ohio four weeks before the election to have 11 percent of voters who have already voted.
- R155, actually, the gap between Democrats and Republicans requesting absentee ballots is much smaller this year in Ohio than it was in 2008.
Groups track everyone who requests a ballot - which is much more informative than is any poll
Not a good sign
- Absentee voting is usually much lower than early voting, which Ohio has. Absentee voting is usually heavily voting because elderly and military voters tend to vote absentee. In contrast, youth, students, blacks, Hispanics, and urban voters tend to vote early in person, and in 2008 and otherwise, early voting heavily favored Democrats. Obama won NC because of huge numbers of early voters.
- Latino Decisions: Obama at 80 percent, leads by 66 in Arizona
By ALEXANDER BURNS |
10/10/12 7:47 AM EDT
If you were impressed by Barack Obama's lead with Latinos nationally (and in Nevada and Florida), check out the latest Latino Decisions numbers from Arizona:
In the presidential race, 80% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for President Obama, while 14% said they will vote for Romney and 6% are undecided. The largest vote share for Obama of any state.
In the U.S. Senate race, 75% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for Richard Carmona (D), while 12% said they will vote for Rep. Jeff Flake (R) and 13% are undecided.
In addition, 69% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their U.S. House race, while 14% will vote Republican and another 14% are undecided.
To underline the point, that's a 66-point gap between Obama and Mitt Romney in the presidential race. In 2008, when Obama was running against Arizona native and immigration reformer John McCain, that gap was 15 points. No one really thinks Obama still has a shot of taking the state this year, but the fact that the Senate race is as close as it is, and that Democrats think they'll be able to compete there one or two cycles down the line, has everything to do with their enormous advantage with a growing Latino population.
- We can't dwell on the failed debate. It really pisses me off that it cost Obama so much, but it was also helped along with the media hyping his "fail" as if it was definitive, when, up until then, his campaigning was pretty flawless, and his messaging was on target.
So, we also need to really lean on the media. We need to call them out for THEIR failure to give as much weight and attention to the incredible lies, and switching positions that Romney & Ryan are doing.
Romney and Ryan use mass media to send out their message, so the mass media needs to challenge their assertions with as much vigor as they have used to lacerate Barack Obama.
This President has done a remarkable job and the fact that they can ignore that is criminal. E-mail, twitter, and make telephone calls to CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox.
Tweet to the leading "journalists" with twitter accounts and also let the "good guys" like Rachel Maddow, Joan Walsh, Howard Fineman, Paul Krugman and Robert Reich, Ezra Klein, Eugene Robinson, Dana Millbank, Chris Hayes, Ed Schultz and Rev. Sharpton know you expect them to kick some ass and take some names on their colleagues,too.
- NEW MEXICO - PRESIDENT [Obama +11]
Obama - 54%
Romney - 43%
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
President Obama continues to hold an 11-point lead over Mitt Romney in New Mexico.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of New Mexico Likely Voters shows the president with 54% of the vote to Romney’s 43%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
- Obama is holding his states and presuming that I believe that he would just need to keep them (includes Wisconsin) and add Ohio and New Hampshire and I believe ONE more electoral vote. It could come out of Nevada or Virginia or Colorado or Florida. It doesn't appear that he'll pick up the one in Nebraska this time.
- Go NM! I'm glad Gary Johnson is finally of some use.
- I believe the post I responded to mentioned *early* voting, R157.
And why are you calling your counter-post "not a good sign" when the rest of your posts are anti-Obama.
- The Economist/YouGov Poll
Likely Voters [Obama +3]
Barack Obama (49%)
Mitt Romney (46%)
Registered Voters [Obama +6]
Barack Obama (50%)
Mitt Romney (44%)
Sample: 1000 General Population Respondents
Conducted: October 6-8, 2012
Margin of Error: 5%
- The EConomist poll is a great shot of good news.
- Is it working again?
- UNF Fla poll: Obama 49, Romney 45
- Gallup Likely Voters: Obama and Rmoney tied Up at 48%
Obama's approval rating is at 53%
- GALLUP DAILY [Oct 7-9, 2012]
Obama Approval (53%)
Obama Disapproval (42%)
REGISTERED VOTERS [7-day rolling average]
Obama 50% (+1)
Romney 45% (-1)
LIKELY VOTERS [7-day rolling average]
Obama 48% (+1)
Romney 48% (-1)
- How is the Economist poll good news - it's a statistical tie.
- It looks like the Romney bounce is being to subside according the the latest Gallup poll. What is your take Poll Troll?
- The Economist poll is good news because it was taken post-debate, which was the most pro-Romney time period since the general election started this spring. Moreover, it shows an Obama lead, which many polls this week have not shown.
- FLORIDA - PRESIDENT [Obama +4]
Obama - 49
Romney - 45
- Breaking: More big numbers from Gallup (9+ / 0-)
Recommended by:Voodoo king, Wolf Of Aquarius, assyrian64, rovertheoctopus, wishingwell, khyber900, Sherri in TX, bythesea, fou
53% Approve / 42% Disapprove
Economic Confidence Index -16 (I think -13 is the all time high)
Job Creation Index +22 (also near an all time high)
- I love when people immediately call a point that has your candidate in the lead a statistical tie. If he is in the lead by 3 points and the margin of error is 3 points than it tends to mean that he could be ahead by 6 points or it could be tied. That is pretty good news when the worst end of your range is tied.
- MAINE - SENATE [King +26]
Pan Atlantic SMS poll
King (I) - 50
Summers (R) - 24
Dill (D) - 12
A poll released Wednesday shows Independent former Gov. Angus King with a huge lead in Maine's Senate contest, contrasting with other recent polls that have shown a tightening race.
The poll from Pan Atlantic SMS also shows King hitting the 50 percent mark in the three-way contest. He garners 50 percent of the vote to Republican Charlie Summers' 24 percent and Democrat Cynthia Dill's measly 12 percent. Fourteen percent of respondents were undecided in the race.
King holds the support of 59 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Independents in the survey. Just 21 percent of Democrats express support for Dill. Summers doesn't even reach 50 percent support among Republicans in the poll: 48 percent support him, while 34 percent support King.
A recent poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee showed a much tighter race, with King leading Summers just 37-34. That poll was conducted concurrently with the Pan Atlantic SMS survey, which was conducted Sept. 24-28. Other recent polls have showed a bigger -- but narrowing -- lead for King, who has been the favorite throughout the race.
King has been getting pummeled over the airwaves by the NRSC and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Recently, though, the outside group Americans Elect announced a $500,000 buy on his behalf. And the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee -- though they still won't endorse in the race -- is now pouring money into the state too.
The poll surveyed 400 likely voters. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points.
- Is it safe to go to RealClearPolitics yet? I'm not going there until Obama has a lead again in the overall average.
- I think Romney had a 1-point lead when I was there earlier, R178. It may take another day or so for Obama to overtake him.
Well see what Nate Silver says in his update tonight.
- We don't need Nate Silver to look at the latest polls. He doesn't conduct polls himself, he is just engaging in questionable statistical hocus pocus to predict the outcome. His recent backtracking from his pre-debate predictions reflects that he is not a prophet, just another person reading the latest polls and trying to sound bold.
- Nate Silver is an expert in statistical modeling and mathematical projections.
While any of us are certainly free to read the polls and reach our own conclusions, in order to do so in meaningful and reliable mathematical formula, further expertise is required.
- WISCONSIN - PRESIDENT [Obama +2]
Obama - 51
Romney - 49\t
- The big difference between LVs and RVs shows how important the GOTV efforts are.
Gallup's RV screen has been more accurate than their LV screen in the past.
- Don't forget to donate to Dem Senate candidates. We're seeing great poll numbers in races that we never thought we had a chance in--AZ, ND, MO, IN, WI. These candidates need our help more than ever.
- I agree, R184.
I'll post some new Senate polling tonight when I get back tonight.
Above you will find today's MA Senate poll showing Warren ahead, and Maine's Senate poll showing King ahead.
Btw, Elizabeth Warren debates Scott Brown for the 3rd time tonight.
- Nate Silver said last evening that if current (yesterday's) polling trends continue, Romney will be tied with Obama in his model by the end of the week. If that were the case, what would be the utility of his models since the summer up until early this week that calculated that Obama had an 80 percent chance of winning? It would mean that his previous calculations didn't mean a hill of beans if you are looking to it to predict the outcome on November 6. A statistical model that goes from an 80% plus chance of an Obama victory to a 50 percent chance in a week is unreliable at best. If Romney wins, it would mean that his models were whacked at least before this week.
- R186, what Nate Silver said is that the model would go to 50/50 only IF Romney continued to show a lead for several more days and got a sustained bounce which allowed him to overtake Obama in the swing states themselves.
While Obama has declined in most of the swing states, he is still ahead, and as long as that remains the case it will not be a 50/50 race yet.
- Dang - I love that Poll Troll!
Britney - licking the Cheetoh powder from her fingers
- If r157 is right, it's all over for Obama in Ohio.
I think we should be prepared for a Reagan style loss on election day.
- Thanks PT12, I am breathing easier this afternoon!
- R186, clearly you are not very bright. The model can only predict, based on current conditions. An 80% chance of winning means only a very unlikely event could cause a loss. The debate performance became that very unlikely event. No one expected such a disparity in the performances of the two candidates. Unfortunately, it was enough to result in changing the odds dramatically. It's not Nate Silver's fault.
- [quote]Clearly you are not very bright. The model can only predict, based on current conditions. An 80% chance of winning means only a very unlikely event could cause a loss. The debate performance became that very unlikely event. No one expected such a disparity in the performances of the two candidates. Unfortunately, it was enough to result in changing the odds dramatically. It's not Nate Silver's fault.
But, he has been much more optimistic than others on Obama's prospects for reelection.
Historically, he has skewed heavily Democratic during the election cycle and then cycles back much closer to the consensus when it gets to election day
Since he only evaluates his performance on his last forecast versus the actual results, he incurs no penalty for his bias
- IBD/TIPP TRACKING
Obama 44% (-1)
Romney 49% (+2)
- IPSOS/REUTERS TRACKING
Obama 45% (-2)
Romney 45% (0)
- The IBD/TIPP poll is disturbing but Nate Silver has always said they're full of shit.
And Nate's models always shift as poll data changes because they are based in part on...
Romney has lots of momentum today but we're now just under four weeks out.
Things will change.
Romney will fuck up.
He always does.
- Is r195 Kenny Kingston?
- I don't think I've ever seen a group of people get dispirited as quickly as some of you on DL. Instead of planning to work harder, it sounds like you're ready to throw in the towel. My God.
- it was ever thus = hand-wringing for days.
- what r191 said.
- Romney will choke...
...but we're the ones that have to strangle him.
Donate. Volunteer. Vote.
- Why is CNN more relaxed about this than some of you guys? Their headlines question the lasting power of what they call Romney's *post-debate bounce*.
Then they move on to talk about Joe vs Ryan in the next debate, another headline about some gaffe (surprise!) Mitt made regarding abortion, and another featuring Rand Paul dissing Romney on his Middle East policy.
Catch a little perspective, please.
- Just out of curiosity - who here has ever been contacted for a poll? I havent' - not once. Could it be that all these polls are conducted with old people and stay at home moms? Granted, reality does reflect the polls so there is some validity to them, but I just wonder who exactly these people are
- NEVADA - PRESIDENT [+Obama 4]
Public Policy Polling
Obama - 51
Romney - 47
NEVADA - SENATE [Heller +3]
Public Policy Polling
Heller (R) - 47
Berkley (D) - 44
[quote]Obama and Heller lead in Nevada
Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Nevada poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state falling to 4 points at 51-47. He had led by a 52-43 margin in the middle of last month. That five point decline for Obama is consistent with what we've been seeing in most of our national and state level polling since last week's debate.
Romney's seen a big improvement in his favorability rating. The last time we polled on that in August he was at 46/49 in Nevada and now he's improved a net 7 points to 50/46. The good news for Obama is that his own approval, at 49/48, is slightly better than it was in August as well when he was at 48/49. Romney's climb is more about his own image improving than a decline for Obama.
Romney's big gain over the last month has been with white voters, who he's going from leading 52-45 with to 55-42. He's made gains across the party spectrum, notably increasing his crossover support with Democrats from 10% to 16% and cutting Obama's lead with independents from 15 points down to 7 points.
When Gary Johnson's included he gets 3% and actually takes mostly from Obama, pulling his lead over Romney down to 48/47. That could be something worth keeping an eye on.
“Barack Obama’s still the favorite in Nevada but the state’s looking a lot more competitive than it did 3 weeks ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question is whether Romney’s momentum will be enough to overcome the structural advantages Democrats have in the state.”
In the Senate race Dean Heller holds a small lead over Shelley Berkley with 47% to her 44%. Independent American Party candidate David Lory VanderBeek gets 4%. Nevadans give Heller narrowly positive approval numbers, with 44% of voters happy with the job he's doing to 42% who disapprove. Berkley's suffering from high negatives with just 40% of voters rating her favorably to 51% who have an unfavorable opinion.
PPP surveyed 594 likely Nevada voters from October 8th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0% This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
- MONTANA - PRESIDENT [Romney +11]
Public Policy Polling\t
Romney - 52
Obama - 41
MONTANA - SENATE [Tester +2]
Public Policy Polling
Tester (D) - 45
Rehberg (R) - 43
- Considering what the media said about Obama's performance, these polls could be a lot worse.
If he fucks up again, I think the fat lady will be warming up.
- ARIZONA - SENATE [Carmona +4]
Harstad Strategic Research
Carmona (D) 47
Flake (R) 43
A survey completed October 9th shows Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican Congressman Jeff Flake in Arizona’s race for an open U.S. Senate seat. Among all likely voters, Carmona leads with 47% to Flake’s 43%.
Among the 90% of voters who say they will definitely vote, Carmona leads by 48% to 43% over Flake.
This survey’s sample is actually more Republican than Arizona’s electorate of active voters. The Secretary of State shows 36% registered Republicans versus 30% registered Democrats (+6% Republican). Our survey sample has 39% registered Republicans versus 30% registered Democrats (+9% Republican).
Carmona performs much better among Democrats (ahead 84% to 7%) than Flake does among Republicans (leading 73% to 17%). Importantly,
Carmona enjoys a 51% to 38% lead among registered Independents.
Former Surgeon General Carmona also has somewhat more room for growth in support, given that Congressman Flake is better known (recognized by 74% of voters) than is Carmona (recognized by 63%).
Also, Richard Carmona is notably more popular (39% favorable, 24% unfavorable) than is Jeff Flake (36% favorable, 38% unfavorable).
With just four weeks before Election Day and early voting about to start, Carmona’s momentum and room for growth – along with voters’ increasing doubts about Flake’s record – bode well for an upset in Arizona’s Senate election this November.
The Arizona survey was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research among a cross-section of 602 likely voters by live telephone calls from October 7 to 9, 2012. The trial heat results cited above were asked near the start of the survey, after only standard questions such as party preference and candidate popularity. The results are subject to a statistical margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 4.0%. Based in Colorado, Harstad Research is the pollster for five U.S. Senators.
- [quote]Just out of curiosity - who here has ever been contacted for a poll? I havent'
- PENNSYLVANIA - PRESIDENT [Obama +8]
Obama - 50
Romney - 42
Conducted by Philadelphia Inquirer from 10/04/2012 to 10/08/2012.
±4.0 margin of error.
600 Likely Voters were polled by telephone survey.
- Just as an FYI to all the above who have never been contacted for a poll, I am a registered voter in NV and I get contacted at least once a week for polls. My missed caller ID shows who I missed during the day.
- In order to prevent myself from falling deep into depression over the events of the last few weeks, I must saw that I have become amused by the over-the-top hysterical infighting and doom and gloom on progressive and Democratic sites like Daily Kos and Democratic Underground. Just 8 days ago these same people were bragging about how Obama had it all in the bag and Romney had no chance. Now, they are eating crow and mad about it, but instead of pulling together to help prevent a rightwing Romney presidency, they are turning on each other with vigor. Even Plouffe is calling progressive hysteria indicative of a bunch of bed-wetters. They especially are slamming Nate Silver for being a quack. Says one poster at DU named Drunken Irishman:
"e already knew, a week ago, Obama was the clear favorite. It didn't take Nate's scientific model to tell us how many states he was actually up in and it doesn't take Nate's model to tell us the polls have shifted toward Romney. This is obvious to anyone who can read a poll or RCP's averages.
So, if Nate is conceding there is literally no point to his numbers except to tell us what we already know, I guess I don't see why so many people put their faith in his numbers and what he says when what he says is almost no different than what the polls are saying. It just seems useless to me.
You're making my point. I've always been skeptical of Nate for this reason. His numbers essentially mirror the political mood. They're not concrete ... they're not a prediction ... they're nothing more than just telling us what we already know. A week ago, everyone knew Obama was winning. A week later, we all know he's not doing nearly as well. We don't need Nate to tell us this, right? We can see it for ourselves. All you have to do is look at RCP's average and do your own electoral map.
My point, and I'm assuming the other poster's, is that Silver's numbers are just a more wonkish look at what we know. Everyone knew Obama was leading in Ohio ... we didn't need Silver to tell us this. Just go read a poll and you'd see he was leading. Everyone knew, last week, Obama was leading in the polls ... we didn't need Silver to tell us this. So, what is his use except to tell us what we already know? I think some people are disillusioned by Silver and expect him to make a predictive model. He's not predicting shit. He's just telling us the mood of the country at the moment and we all know the mood. I guess on election day it will be helpful if the polls are tight to have a percentage to it ... but even that could set up to Silver proclaiming a 50-50 election, or such a narrow percentage that he outright states you shouldn't take any meaning with it.
Basically, everyone looks to Silver to tell us the state of the race as if he's inclined to have some information that we don't. Well, I think this proves his model is no different than, really, the polls. So, what's the point? If it's all solely defined by polls ... why not just look at polls? "
- OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +6]
Obama - 51
Romney - 45
FLORIDA - PRESIDENT [Obama +1]
Obama - 48
Romney - 47
VIRGINIA - PRESIDENT [Romney +1]
Romney - 48
Obama - 47
- R180 - We could do the analysis ourselves, but Nate probably is better at it than most of us. I see too many people being freaked out by single polls (like Pew).
Overall, Obama has a very slight lead and his numbers have stabilized, and possibly are increasing.
- Folks, the NBC poll confirms that early Ohio voting is keeping Obama in this:
"One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama."
- The best week of Mitt Romney's campaign and the best he can do is trail Obama by 6 in Ohio.
Mitt Romney will not be President without winning Ohio and things are not looking good for him at this point.
- Of course, R213. Why else do you think that Ohio's Secretary of State is trying to shut down early voting?
Those NBC/Marist polls is very encouraging news. Given how slightly red-leaning Ohio usually is, I find it hard to believe that Obama will win that state and then lose all the other states.
If Romney loses OH, it's pretty much game over for him and gives him an already smaller electoral college cushion in that he would have to win FL, NC, VA, CO, IA, NV, AND NH. Or instead of the latter two, pick up WI.
No poll has shown Obama behind in NV, and NH should be going in his direction. All he would have to then do is pick up a NV, CO, or IA.
Barring a major Obama scandal or a colossal debate gaffe and/or loss than we saw last week, I still don't see how the president could lose this looking at the electoral map, assuming he holds on to OH.
That is why Romney has been there so much since the debate. They know the election hinges on them winning it.
- OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +4]
Obama - 46
Romney - 42
“Ohio’s 18 electoral votes are up for grabs. More than one in four independents are still undecided and both candidates are still underperforming among key parts of their base.”
The NewsmaxZogby poll shows that while Obama leads Romney by four percentage points, 12 percent of respondents are still undecided.
Union households give the president a strong endorsement.
Obama leads Romney among independents, 42 percent to 31 percent, with a substantial 27 percent undecided.
Obama also leads among voters who consider themselves moderates, 57 percent to 29 percent, women (48 percent to 39 percent), and non-white voters (78 percent to 17 percent).
But Romney is ahead among men by a margin of 46 percent to 43 percent. He also leads among voters over age 65 (62 percent to 31 percent), white voters (49 percent to 37 percent), evangelicals (57 percent to 33 percent), investors (54 percent to 39 percent), and married voters (50 percent to 39 percent).
The GOP nominee leads among voters with a college degree, 45 percent to 43 percent, and among respondents who live in suburban or rural areas, while Obama leads among respondents who have a union member in their household, 51 percent to 36 percent.
Only 19 percent of respondents say they “strongly approve” of Obama’s job performance, and 28 percent “somewhat approve,” for a total of 47 percent approval. But 37 percent say they “strongly disapprove,” and 13 percent “somewhat disapprove,” for a total of 50 percent.
Even though more voters in Ohio favor Obama over Romney, 45 percent of respondents say it is “time for someone new” in the White House, compared to 43 percent who think Obama “deserves to be elected.”
When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is added to the mix, he gets 3 percent of the vote, and the undecided vote drops to 6 percent.
- The state poll numbers are rather encouraging,
- VIRGINIA - PRESIDENT [Obama +5]
Obama - 51%
Romney - 46%
WISCONSIN - PRESIDENT [Obama +3]
Obama - 50%
Romney - 47%
COLORADO - PRESIDENT [Romney +1]
Obama - 47%
Romney - 48%
- Yahoo had something about Romney overtaking the women's vote. WTF?
- The right-wing media is trying to push that story, R219, but there is no evidence of that so far, except in certain isolated polling samples.
In most polling Obama remains well ahead with women.
For example, Obama is ahead of Romney by 16 points with women voters in tonight's Virginia poll by CBS/NYT:
- R220- Right the media and freepers are peddling half truths and outright falsehoods.
- Tonight's large batch of multiple swing state polls from various polling companies are pretty good news for Obama.
While they show a decline, they show that Romney has not caught fire in the swing states yet and doesn't look like he will overtake Obama.
- [quote]Obama Internal Polls Still Show Leads in Swing States
Major Garrett reports the first batch of Obama internal polls came back from key swing states today and "revealed that Obama was not in free fall, as some feared, but that his support has returned to where it was in July and August."
"Internal Obama polling data show that all swing states have tightened up and that Romney is within the margin of error in states like Ohio and Virginia and Florida. It's now a dogfight across the swing-state battlefield and any sense of pre-debate complacency that some Obama hands feared was creeping into both turnout and fundraising has vanished."
Obama to ABC News: "What's important is the fundamentals of what this race is about haven't changed."
- [quote]Romney relies on shrinking pool of white male votes
Thu Oct 11, 2012
(Reuters) - With the race between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama tightening, the Republican needs one group more than any other to drive him to the White House: white men.
For Romney, the support of white male voters offers the likeliest path to the presidency, even as betting on white men is proving an increasingly risky proposition for Republicans.
His reliance on that voter group becomes more acute as polls show him far behind with African-Americans, lagging badly among Hispanics, and at a disadvantage with women in many polls, despite overall poll numbers showing him essentially tied with Obama in recent days.
Ninety percent of Republican voters were white in 2008, according to exit polls, while white women tend to be more evenly split between the two parties.
The bulwark of white male support is slowly eroding. For decades, each presidential election has offered a smaller pool of white voters. That puts pressure on Romney to secure a greater share than previous Republican presidential nominees of the shrinking proportion of the electorate made up by white men.
Adding to Romney's electoral challenge: white male voters are more conservative and describe their views in ways increasingly different from the rest of the population, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. That trend stretches a candidate who must simultaneously retain his base and increase the diversity of his supporters.
White male voters currently pose challenges for both campaigns. A smaller percentage of likely white male voters said it preferred Obama than voted for him in 2008. At the same time, a smaller percentage of white male voters also favors Romney than it did John McCain in his losing effort four years ago.
If Romney does not improve on McCain's performance among white men, the electorate's second largest voting demographic after white women, he will likely repeat McCain's fate, pollsters and demographers said. Obama faces similar odds: a huge dip in white male support could spell the end of his time in office.
According to Reuters/Ipsos polling conducted October 1 to October 7, likely white male voters favored Romney 55.5 percent to 31.9 percent. Six percent of likely male voters said they were undecided. (For a graphic and poll details, please click here bit.ly/SMtn5N)
Romney's advantage over Obama exceeds McCain's, but falls short of his fellow Republican's total share of the white male vote. In 2008, McCain outpaced Obama among white male voters 57 percent to 41 percent, according to exit polls.
"The fact that (Romney) is right in line with McCain does mean he has work to do," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.
- Poll troll, there is a set of new swing state polls from CBS/NYT. Get to it!
- Already posted above, R225. : )
- Obama is doing better in state polls than the national polls. The national polls this week have been brutal, but new NBC/Marist, Zogby, and CBS/Quinnipiac state polls are quite good for Obama.
- So far, Romney’s campaign has a slight edge in absentee voting. Republicans have requested 894,544 absentee ballots and returned 33,143, compared to 820,865 requested and 31,305 returned by Democrats, according to the Romney campaign. Independent and minor party voters have requested 374,551 ballots and returned 12,083. The state Democratic Party has numbers that reflect the same ratio of requested and returned ballots. The state only releases the information to political parties, elections officials and candidates until the election is over.
At the same point before the 2008 election, Democrats lagged even further in absentee ballot requests, with Republicans requesting nearly 730,000 ballots compared to just more than 517,000 for Democrats, according to figures provided by the Obama campaign. Traditionally, Republicans have voted absentee in larger numbers than Democrats, but Obama still won the majority of votes cast before Election Day in 2008.
- 18% of Ohioans have already voted and Obama leads with 63%.
Last edited Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:51 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1)
That's according to the new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll...those are fantastic numbers for Obama and why early voting is so critical to the campaign. Ohio might be decided before the rest of the country goes to the polls in November!
- Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Poll
For release: Thursday, October 11, 20123:00 am ET
Embargoed until 3:00 am, Thursday, October 11 2012
After the First Debate: Tight in Colorado & Wisconsin; President Still Leads in Virginia
October 4-9, 2012
In Colorado, where President Barack Obama led by just a point in September, Mitt Romney nowhas a one-point edge. In Wisconsin, the race has tightened; Mr. Obama has just a three-pointlead now, down from six points last month. The race is unchanged in Virginia, where thePresident is holding onto a small lead. All three polls were conducted after the first presidentialdebate.
By about four to one, voters in all three of these battleground states say Mitt Romneywon last week’s presidential debate, and sizeable numbers say the debate made themthink better of him. But majorities say the debate didn’t affect their vote.
More voters think Mitt Romney has strong qualities of leadership than say that about thePresident, but voters are divided on whether he is honest and trustworthy.
Republicans continue to be more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting this year ingeneral, particularly in Colorado and Wisconsin.
In all three states, the percentage that thinks the national economy is improving hasrisen since August. Both candidates are even on handling the economy in Virginia andWisconsin, while Romney leads on this in Colorado.
Heading into the Vice Presidential debate, voters in these battlegrounds expect PaulRyan to emerge the victor over Joe Biden.
- NBC/WSJ/Marist — VA (R 48, O 47), OH (O 51, R 45), FL (O 48, R 47)
A week after President Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has made some gains in three key swing states among those most likely to vote, according to the latest round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
Romney and Obama remain in a virtual tie in Virginia and Florida, and the Democratic incumbent maintains a slight advantage in Ohio.
Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.
In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.
In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.
But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)
- [quote]18% of Ohioans have already voted and Obama leads with 63%.
How can the know how much he leads in absentee ballots?
- RealClearPolitics has moved Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan from the Obama column into the toss-up column since the debate
They look across all of the state polls
Not a good sign
- R233, they don't call the election though. And if you look above it seems the polls are still favoring Obama in each one of those states, albeit by smaller margins.
Things seems to be leveling off and/or coming back.
- Since the latest Romney flip-flop on abortion, the media is finally pressing the "Who is the Real Mitt Romney?" meme and that's a very good sign.
Momentum seems to be swinging back.
- I read Nate Silver's article this morning on why there is a disparity between national and state polls. He considers four possible explanations, but it seems to me he omitted an important one: namely that there is far more campaign spending in the swing states. So, whereas in the nation as a whole, people rely solely on the media for information about the candidates, in the swing states, there is a barrage of campaign ads as well.
This explanation would bolster the idea that there really is a disparity between the popular vote and the electoral vote. And this fits in with the general idea that where people are less informed, they are more likely to vote Republican.
- I'm excited for tonight!
Many of those less informed people that R236 referred to will be watching the VP debate, and since they are apparently influenced by such things as TV debates (and bluster), Joe should have us back on track by morning.
- [quote]This explanation would bolster the idea that there really is a disparity between the popular vote and the electoral vote. And this fits in with the general idea that where people are less informed, they are more likely to vote Republican.
And this is the reason Electoral vote exists in the first place. To check the influence of the ignorant masses in a close race.
- RCP is flat-out wrong about PA and OH. They are solid Obama.
- PRESIDENT NATIONAL POLL
Fox News - Romney +1
Obama - 45%
Romney - 46%
Obama was ahead by 5 points in the prior two Fox News polls conducted in September
- R240 you forgot "Not a good sign"
- Fox news.
- Well done R241! Well done!
- [quote]How can the know how much he leads in absentee ballots?
Simple: they made that part of the polling question. They asked those being polled if they had already voted and, if so, which way they had voted.
- Rasmussen Tracking\t [Obama +1]
Obama - 48
Romney - 47
Thursday, October 11, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
- OHIO - PRESIDENT
Romney - 46
Obama - 45
Romney - 47
Obama - 48
- NORTH CAROLINA
Rasmussen Tracking [Romney + 3]
Obama - 48
Romney - 51
- [quote]New Polls Suggest Democratic Freakout May Be Premature
OCTOBER 11, 2012, 11:48 AM
While Mitt Romney clearly did some damage in the debate, a raft of swing state polls from major news outlets Thursday indicate President Obama may have put a floor on his drop.
Nervous Democrats told TPM earlier in the week that they were eagerly anticipating state results from the major national pollsters before deciding whether Romney had taken the lead in the race outright — suggesting a full-fledged freakout on the left could start as early as today.
While there’s been an array of state and national numbers over the last few days, two sets of polls from NBC/WSJ/Marist and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac represent some of the first results from top outlets that polling analysts tend to lend the most credibility. And the numbers, while improved for Romney, still show Obama with an advantage in key states.
Most important: Ohio, a likely must-win for Romney where Obama has held a solid lead in recent weeks. NBC/WSJ pegs the race at 51-45 for Obama, a 2-point bounce for Romney since their last poll with the president’s own support remaining steady. It’s the second post-debate poll of Ohio from a major news organization to show Obama breaking the 50 percent barrier — CNN put him up 51-47.
“The reality is that if there’s a preponderance of solid polling showing Ohio squarely in Obama’s corner, Romney remains in trouble,” Blake Zeff, a Democratic strategist, told TPM. “I’d like to see more polls there before reaching any conclusions, but today’s is a start.”
Regardless of the polling, however, Zeff added that it may take a solid debate performance from Obama in New York next week to reassure jittery supporters.
In another encouraging takeaway for Democrats, NBC/WSJ found that Democrats’ ground game may be paying dividends in early voting. Obama is winning Ohioans who have already cast their ballot by a 63-37 margin, and they make up 1 in 5 of the poll’s respondents. Early voting began the day before the first debate, giving Romney an opportunity to potentially bank some ballots ahead of Election Day with his strong performance, but it seems from NBC’s results that Obama still has the edge there. Some 92 percent of voters also said their minds were made up before the debate, suggesting that Romney may have somewhat small — though still significant — base to court in the final weeks.
Another key state is Virginia, which could put Obama over the top in a number of hypothetical electoral scenarios that have him losing Ohio and Florida. Here the two pollsters diverged. CBS/NYT found Obama actually gaining on Romney to move into a 51-46 lead, even in the immediate aftermath of a debate that the vast majority of state voters thought the president lost. NBC found things closer at 48-47 Romney, a shift from a 48-46 edge for Obama in their previous poll.
Other swing states polled suggested a tight race, but one whose margins are little changed from before the debate. CBS/NYT put Wisconsin at 50-47 Obama and Colorado at 47-48 Romney. NBC/WSJ found Florida essentially tied at 48-47 Obama, the same margin as before the debate.
Obama aide told the National Journal on Wednesday that their own state polls are showing similar numbers: tighter, but not catastrophic.
As the New York Times’ Nate Silver pointed out, Romney has received a bigger post-debate bump on average in national polls, where he’s moved into a tie or small lead, than in swing state polls, where Obama looks to still be a narrow favorite. Obama can lose a number of contested swing states that he won in 2008 and still come out with a victory, but Romney needs to come close to running the table to eke out an electoral college win.
So while Romney has clearly made huge strides since the debate, there are indications that he may not have cleared that crucial state level hurdle he needs. It’s a calming sign for Democrats — at least until the next debate.
LVRJ/Survey USA - [Obama +1]
Obama - 47
Romney - 46
Detroit News - [Obama +7]
Obama - 49
Romney - 42
Gravis - [Obama +2]
Obama - 46
Romney - 44
Philadelphia Inquirer [Obama +8]
Obama - 50
Romney - 42
- Nate Silver's probability of an Obama victory has dropped from 86% to 68% in a week
[quote]There is some spotty evidence that Mr. Romney’s bounce may have been as large as five or six points in polls conducted in the 48 hours after the debate, so perhaps the most recent data does reflect something of a comedown for him. But if his bounce started out at five or six points and has now settled in at three or four, that would still reflect an extremely profound swing in the race — consistent with the largest shifts produced by past presidential debates. We’ll see what happens once the news cycle turns over, such as after Thursday’s vice-presidential debate.
[quote]For the time being, however, Mr. Romney continues to rocket forward in our projections. The forecast model now gives him about a one-in-three chance of winning the Electoral College (more specifically, a 32.1 percent chance), his highest figure since Aug. 22 and more than double his chances from before the debate. Mr. Romney may have increased his chances of becoming president by 15 or 20 percent based on one night in Denver.
- Luckily there are more nights to come....
- [quote]Nate Silver's probability of an Obama victory has dropped from 86% to 68% in a week
Yes, we know that. But that may start reversing itself soon. Obama still retains the lead in the Electoral College, and in Ohio.
And you forgot to mention that Nate also said that.
- Nate Silver is a quack. Just sayin....
- Some of you confuse absentee voting with early voting. While absentee voting is technically voting early, it is not early voting. Absentee in most states involves voting by sending a ballot via mail, except in Virginia where you can walk in a vote absentee at the Board of Elections like regular voting. In most states that have early voting, it is a period wherein people walk into a designated polling place and vote as if they were voting on November 6. Early voting is voting before November 6 in a normal on-site polling location. Ohio has early walk-in voting, as do many states.
- Gravis seems to have a noticeable Republican bias.
- GALLUP TRACKING POLL
Romney - 48
Obama - 47
Romney gained one point versus yesterday's results.
- [quote]Gravis seems to have a noticeable Republican bias.
It does indeed.
When you take out the Gravis polls, Obama's numbers are better.
- And Romney lost one point in RASMUSSEN.
So there will continue to be some fluctuation for a few days until things stabilize.
- [quote]Nate Silver is a quack. Just sayin....
You're a moron. Just sayin....
- [quote]Yes, we know that. But that may start reversing itself soon. Obama still retains the lead in the Electoral College, and in Ohio. And you forgot to mention that Nate also said that.
Poll Troll, isn't it somewhat of a given that, if Nate Silver still has Obama as the favorite (albeit less so) to win the election, he would also have Obama ahead in the Electoral College?
Can you describe a situation where a candidate would be favored to win the election but wouldn't be ahead in the electoral college projections?
It seems like someone wouldn't have to point out that fact
- Gallup has changed their polling methodology since the end of the conventions
They have increased the size of the non-white sample by 5 points
They increased the share interviews done by cell phone from 40 to 50 percent
It is highly unusual for a polling organization to change their methodology late in an election cycle
The changes may now more accurately reflect the electorate (or not)
One thing is clear, it changes the poll to skew much more towards Obama - estimations average about 5 points
In other words, an even race today in their poll is equivalent to a 5 point Romney lead in their August and earlier polls
- Nate Silver does still have Obama ahead in the Electoral College.
I believe Obama is at about 293 EV right now in Nate's projection.
- [quote]Romney's Battleground State Problem
October 11, 2012
Since Romney’s performance in the first presidential debate, Obama has held onto the lead in just one of nine national polls. But this morning’s NBC/WSJ/Marist and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polls add additional data to what had been an emerging trend: Obama’s resilience in the battleground states.
The six battleground state surveys showed Romney gaining an average of just 1 point since the first presidential debate and maintaining a lead in the pivotal state of Ohio, where NBC/WSJ/Marist found the president maintaining a 6 point advantage, bolstered by 63-37 lead among the 18 percent of voters who said they had already voted.
At this stage, it appears that Romney made smaller gains in the battleground states than he did in the national polls. On average, Romney gained 2.1 points in battleground state polls, even though he picked up an average of 5.5 points in the 11 national surveys conducted after the first presidential debate.
- I still can't believe that one stupid debate has made such a difference. What the fuck is wrong with people in this country?
- [quote]I still can't believe that one stupid debate has made such a difference. What the fuck is wrong with people in this country?
Most people in this country are very unsophisticated and lack critical thinking skills. They're very easily swayed by flashing lights and shiny objects. (In other words, they're stupid.)
- Nate Silver is a joke at this point. His model depends entirely upon the polls, so we should be concentrating on the polls, not his forecasting model. And his model cannot forecast October surprises like Obama's poor debate performance, or the surfacing of the 47% video.
- All of you freaking out, have you done any of the following?
1) Donated money to Obama since the debate?
2) Volunteered time to make phone calls to swing state or get involved in Get Out the Vote?
3) Killed a Republican?
All of these are much more effective and pragmatic ways of helping the situation that are better than just freaking out.
- Actually, Gallup switched from a registered voter sample to a likely voter sample, so the pre-debate Gallup polls and post-debate Gallup polls aren't directly comparable.
- [quote]His model depends entirely upon the polls, so we should be concentrating on the polls, not his forecasting model.
No, it does not.
If you are going to analyze Nate's model, please do so with an understanding of how it actually works.
It takes into account economic data about the market, as well as the unemployment rate, and also factors in the voting history in each state over previous elections.
- R268. Yes and no. His model is completely mathematical and the polls play the largest role. It does also factor in job approval (still polled) and job reporting #s too. It cannot predict how someone will do in a debate. That would be reserved for the psychics.
- The Ohio early-voting advantage seen in the NBC poll shows that the Obama GOTV effort is working as planned. Let's hope the GOTV effort is working as well in other swing states. The Obama campaign claims to be delivering Dem voters to the polls by the thousands, so that's good news.
Do any of you live in Colorado? What's the feeling on the ground there? I'd like to see Bill Clinton put to good use in CO.
- WISCONSIN - PRESIDENT [Obama +4]
Pulse Opinion Research
Obama - 50
Romney - -46
Barack Obama’s Presidential Approval Rating: 53% Approve
WISCONSIN - SENATE [Baldwin +2]
Pulse Opinion Research
Let Freedom Ring survey of 1,000 likely voters in Wisconsin
Conducted October 8, 2012 by Pulse Opinion Research
Sample Size: 1,000 LV (Margin of Error +/- 3.0% with 95% level of confidence)
- [quote]It takes into account economic data about the market, as well as the unemployment rate, and also factors in the voting history in each state over previous elections.
All of which are reflected IN THE POLLS. I think some of you want Nate to assure you that Obama is going to win, and he simply can't do that.
- Wisconsin is certainly closer than we'd like it. And I'd like to see Baldwin closer to 50 also.
- R275, you missed the point.
Yes, polls reflect economic data indirectly, but they are still 2 separate mathematical measures.
The point I was making is that Nate's model also includes economic data from the stock market & labor force that are separate numbers from the polls.
- It used to be conservatives who bashed Nate Silver as a fraud and joke. Now, liberals have joined the anti-Nate chorus.
- MASSACHUSETTS - SENATE [Warren +6]
Public Policy Polling
Warren - (D) - 50
Brown (R) -44
MASSACHUSETTS - PRESIDENT [Obama +14]
Public Policy Polling
Obama - 55
Romney - 41
- I hope Carmona can win in Arizona. That would be a huge psychological hurdle in turning AZ purple in the coming years. It could put AZ in play in 2016. And I doubt McCain would run again.
- IBD/TIPP Tracking [Romney +1]
Romney - 47
Obama - 46\t
Note: Romney was (+5) in this poll yesterday.
- MICHIGAN - PRESIDENT [Obama +7]
Obama - 49
Romney - 42
MICHIGAN - SENATE [Stabenow +12]
Stabenow (D) 50
Hoekstra (R) 38\t
- These tracking polls are jumping around too much from day to day. I think the traditional polls are more accurate than the daily tracking polls.
- Poll Troll, really appreciate these updates. Am dying here watching the "sure thing" "slam dunk" Obama campaign get derailed over one freakin lousy debate. How is it that Romney's lies, obfuscations, tax returns, 47%, etc etc etc never seem to stick with the American public??
Hoping and praying the polls start going in O's direction, and fast!
- Chris Matthews said that if Biden doesn't win the debate, the Romney camp wins.
That will be the media spin, and expect the polls to follow suit.
- Well, of course, R285. The media has been running this game ever since it started over a year ago. They set the agenda, determine what gets covered and how important to make it and tell people what they heard and what it "meant" and use the "peer presure" gambit to shape people's reactions and what they think.
The internet is the last bastion. Guard it well. I'm sick of politics. I will watch Joe tonight because I hope he will kick that little shit all over the stage, but then I'm going to watch cooking shows from now on. No more current events. They are just talking at each other with nothing new to say.
- Chris Matthews is engaging in supposition.
Remember this is a guy who also believes the Warren Commission.
- I am too scared to watch tonight or any remaining debate. That is what Twitter and Daily Kos are for.
- MASSACHUSETTS - SENATE [Warren +2]
Warren (D) 49%
Brown (R) 47%
Thursday, October 11, 2012
After months of running even, Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren has inched ahead of Republican incumbent Scott Brown in Massachusetts' fiercely contested U.S. Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Massachusetts Voters finds Warren picking up 49% of the vote to Brown’s 47%. Four percent (4%) are undecided.
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on October 10, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
- Chris Matthews loves a story - any story. And he'll make one if there isn't one. Although I agree with him sometimes, my favorite moment was when Jon Stewart skewered him on his show while he was peddling his book, "Life is a Campaign".
- Me too R288, I'm not watching tonight. I didn't watch the Obama/Romney debate but turned to MSNBC after it was over and even with the sound on mute, one look at their faces told me it didn't go well for the Pres. I hope they're smiling tonight.
- [quote]Elizabeth Warren Leads Scott Brown In Two Polls
THURSDAY OCTOBER 11, 2012
Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren leads Republican Sen. Scott Brown, in two polls released Thursday for the Massachusetts Senate race.
Warren is ahead, 50 percent to 44 percent, according to Democratic firm Public Policy Polling. The survey of 1,051 likely voters was conducted Oct. 9 through 11, and has 3 percent margin of error. Warren also leads 49 percent to 47 percent, according to Rasmussen. The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Oct. 10, and has a 4.5 percent margin of error.
From PPP's analysis: "The biggest thing that continues to make it very hard for Brown to win this race is that 52% of voters in the state want Democrats to have control of the US Senate to 35% who want the Republicans in control. Warren is now winning the Democratic vote 82/13, erasing most of the crossover support that Brown had earlier in the year."
The PollTracker Average shows Warren ahead, 49.1 percent to 44.6 percent.
- I firmly believe that Joe Biden will do well tonight. It seems like he's been running for president forever and it seems like he tends to shine in the debates, even with stronger personalities like Obama & Hillary. He's a smart guy, but he's got that "common man" touch.
Paul Ryan is harder to predict - everyone talks about how great he is but besides his acceptance speech where he shamelessly lied, when has he ever been on the national stage not just spouting his ideas but explaining & defending his idea. Plus, they are not realy his ideas anymore - they are Romney's. I don't know if it will turn around this current crazy slide that Obama is in, but I have faith Biden will do well.
- I really think Joe is going to deliver. What can he mess up? The watching public obviously doesn't care about accuracy so what does he have to lose?
- First of all Ryan's a pussy, second of all; will he be able to keep Mitt's lies straight?
- SURVEY USA/MONMOUTH POLL
Romney - 47
Obama - 46
Romney gained four points versus their previous poll conducted last month
- IPSOS/REUTERS TRACKING POLL
Romney - 47
Obama - 44
Romney gained two points versus yesterday's tracking poll
- Looks like someone is trying to post all the pro-Romney polls.
- They do it every day.
- [quote]Crystal Ball: Larry Sabato moves MA SEN to Leaning Warren & AZ SEN to Toss Up
Elizabeth Warren and Richard Carmona are performing well.
- [quote]I think the traditional polls are more accurate than the daily tracking polls
Correct. The day-to-day movement of the daily tracking polls is usually just noise. You cannot take an individual day's polls as evidence of anything, even if the movement is fairly sizable. What the tracking polls are useful for is monitoring trends. If one candidate starts trending upward and stays upward for a week or more, then you can assume that candidate really has moved up in the polls.
The individual daily snapshots and movement, though, despite their being trumpeted loudly by one side or another, really don't mean anything.
- I only pay attention to the 2012 Poll Troll's polls. He's very up-front about his bias in favor of Democrats and the President but he still posts when they are not doing well.
That's integrity - unlike the Romney Poll Troll who only posts polls showing Romney leading. He should start his own fucking thread.
- [quote]Looks like someone is trying to post all the pro-Romney polls - 2012 Poll Troll
[quote]I only pay attention to the 2012 Poll Troll's polls. He's very up-front about his bias in favor of Democrats and the President but he still posts when they are not doing well. That's integrity - unlike the Romney Poll Troll who only posts polls showing Romney leading. He should start his own fucking thread.
I guess I don't follow the argument.
2012 Poll Troll - are there other polls released today (national or battleground states) that are favorable (or neutral) to Obama?
If so, would you please post them because I don't know where they are
If not, and this other poster is simply posting the polls positive to Romney, isn't he just ensuring all the polls are posted here?
And, if that is the case, how does that lack integrity?
I personally would like to see all of the polls - the good, the bad and the ugly
- And R302, are you saying that you don't want to see all of the polls?
If not, why not?
- I don't have an objective to someone posting some of the good polls for Romney, and I've done that myself earlier in this thread.
I just noticed that certain posters seem to be selective in what they are choosing to post.
- 2012 Poll Troll:
But if they are ensuring all of the polls are posted
And, if the polls the post are pro-Romney
Then, are they biased or are you biased?
- objective = objection
- 2012 Poll Troll, do you tag your posts on all of the political threads so we know it is you (and benefit from your deep involvement in the political world)?
- R306, I already explained it above. I don't have a problem with posting good polls for Romney - I've done it before myself.
But we do have a couple of Republican operatives posting here and so I'm just trying to keep that in mind.
- the funny thing is, they think they are flying under the radar...
- R303/304/306/308 is the same troll who's attacking Elizabeth Warren on another thread and touting a link from the Weekly Standard.
- R308, yes, I sign my name every time I post on a political thread (except for the odd time when I've forgotten).
I've thought of authenticating my name.
- Damn, it looks like the poll troll and especially R302 kind of got tripped up by logic here as presenting and advocating a posting a biased set of polls
Pretty funny but not overall surprising
Expect Poll Troll to start a new thread soon to ahem avoid broad exposure of this
- [quote]Obama may be over-performing in the swing states
Nate Silver and Nate Cohn both dig into the numbers today and suggest that there’s evidence Obama may now be leading in the swing states while remaining even with or behind Mitt Romney nationally. Some of the polling models show Romney’s surge has left him narrowly ahead in national polling averages. But Cohn looks at all the polling and notes that this isn’t borne out in the battlegrounds:
On average, Romney gained 2.1 points in battleground state polls, even though he picked up an average of 5.5 points in the 11 national surveys conducted after the first presidential debate. Given Obama’s pre-debate leads in the key battleground states, a 2.1 point gain would leave Romney well short of 270 electoral votes.
Why might this be happening? Cohn suggests this explanation:
Simply put: campaigns might matter. There hasn’t been a campaign where the battleground states have endured so many advertisements for so long before the rest of the country even began to tune in. This was also a campaign where the conventional wisdom has long held that attacks on Romney did a lot of damage, especially in Ohio. While most of the country tuned in and saw Romney unadulterated by months of advertisements, voters in the battleground states might have more entrenched and cynical views of the Republican nominee.
Indeed, despite all the headlines you’re seeing this morning, the real story in today’s NBC/WSJ and NYT/CBS swing state polls is how little movement there has been in key battlegrounds, not how much. Today’s NBC/WSJ polls found that Obama leads in Ohio by 51-45, after leading by 51-43 before the debate. Obama leads in Florida by 48-47, after leading by 47-46 before the debate. Obviously, neither of those are big shifts. (The biggest movement came in Virginia, where Romney now leads by 48-47 after a shift of three points.)
Meanwhile, the NYT/CBS polls show Obama leading in Virginia by 51-46, after leading 50-46 before the debate. And Obama is leading in Wisconsin by 50-47, after leading 51-45 before the debate. Even in Colorado, where Romney now leads by 48-47, the shift was all of two points, from 47-48 before the debates.
What’s more, today’s polling also suggests perceptions of whether Romney cares about the needs and problems of ordinary people have not shifted meaningfully in Wisconsin or Virginia, and Romney’s upside-down favorability ratings have not moved much in Ohio.
Geoff Garin, the pollster for the Obama-allied Priorities USA, tells me that his polling shows that views of Romney are more fixed in the battlegrounds than nationally. “In the swing states, voters are much more apt and able to quote back the main case against Romney,” he tells me.
Garin adds that his polling has tested voter reaction to various arguments against Romney, such as the idea that his economic policies would favor the wealthy or burden the middle class. He says voter agreement with those suggestions is “higher where the advertising has occurred,” and adds: “All the swing state advertising has had a measurable and lasting impact.”
So perhaps Cohn is on to something: Obama may be doing better in the battlegrounds than he is nationally because views of Romney have hardened in these states to a much greater degree. It bears watching.
- Obama campaign blowing Romney out of the water in swing state ground game
OFA: grassroots organizing powerhouse. Again.
The Obama campaign released numbers today about how effective their ground game in swing states has been in two specific areas: voter registration and early voting. How effective have they been?
In a word: VERY.
The campaign held a call for media to discuss the numbers. On the call were Jim Messina, Campaign Manager, Jeremy Bird, National Field, and Ben LaBolt, National Press Secretary. Messina is a data-driven guy. Every morning, the first thing he does is look at numbers. “Not poll numbers but voter registration numbers and early voting numbers,” he said.” Those are the numbers that matter to me.”
What those numbers show for the swing states that will be the deciding factor in this year’s election is that Obama for America (OFA), the Obama campaign’s grassroots organizing effort is shooting the lights out when compared to the Republicans. In fact, they are doing even better this year than they did in 2008. They have more registered voters in every swing state except Colorado and New Hampshire and have registered more voters than the Republicans in every swing state that reports party affiliation.
- Poll Troll at R314. This is exactly the argument I made earlier today.
- Romney's leading Obama in Florida. I hope it's true that Obama only needs to keep Ohio to win.
- Obama will eventually take FL.
- No other Florida poll shows a gap that wide, R317.
Obama is ahead in 2 Florida polls that came out yesterday.
- Poll Troll, RealClearPolitics takes the average of the state polls and then classifies those states based on whether one candidate is ahead or calls the state a toss up if the average of the polls is well within the average error range of the polls
Over the past week - since the debate - the have moved five states from Obama to toss-up - Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin
Those states have 68 electoral college votes
No states have moved towards Obama
How do I reconcile this mathematical approach to the state polls to your article?
- Thank you Poll Troll, you're so reassuring! I sort of panicked when I saw that article.
- [quote]No other Florida poll shows a gap that wide, [R317]. Obama is ahead in 2 Florida polls that came out yesterday.
In the three polls taken in Florida entirely after the debate, Romney leads by an average of 1.3%
If you add this poll from Tampa to the average, Romney leads by an average of 3.75%
- R320, it's correct that no states have moved towards Obama. But no states are really moving towards Romney, either. That's the point.
Many of those states were moved from Obama's column to Toss Up to reflect a decline in his polls in those states, but he still currently leads in most of those swing states.
There is also an option you can click on the RCP site called 'Map With No Toss Ups' that shows you who those states would go to if they weren't classified Toss Ups. Most of those would go to Obama right now, except North Carolina and maybe one other.
Btw, it's important to keep in mind that RCP is owned by Steve Forbes and does have a right-wing lean.
- [quote]If you add this poll from Tampa to the average
And what would the average be if we exclude the Tampa poll?
- R320/R322 is the same Romney apologist troll who's stinking up the "Horror Stories: Mitt Romney's Shameful Record with Mormon Women" thread.
- ...and if they ARE planning on trying to 'steal' the vote with software/machines, they NEED for us to believe it is closer than it really is... so we can expect this to continue all the way till 11/6...
- Well, you can't really blame him, R325. After all, it's not like he can actually talk about Romney's policies or find any good reason to vote for him. What else can he post?
- Turns out that the Tampa Poll shows Romney beating Obama among Latinos by 7 points and that they oversampled Cubans.
I KNEW there was something wrong with it!
- If Obama loses Ohio, it's about over.
Any tiny mistake from them, and the mainstream media will be all over it.
I don't think he can hold on for another 3 1/2 weeks :(
- Aw now the Romney troll's gonna have to go and get a new proxy address again. He must get awfully tired of that.
- NEW MEXICO - SENATE [Heinrich +13]
Heinrich (D) - 52
Wilson (R) - 39
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Democrat Martin Heinrich maintains his double-digit lead over his Republican challenger, Heather Wilson, in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Heinrich with 52% support to Wilson’s 39%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while another five percent (5%) are undecided.
- NEVADA - PRESIDENT [Obama +2]
Obama - 47
Romney - 45\t
Likely General Election Voters
- WTF? R302 here.
I was very clear in my post that I have confidence in the integrity of the 2012 Poll Troll. The point of my bitching about the Romney Poll Troll is that he only posts polls favoring Romney. We get polls that favor Romney from the 2012 Poll Troll already.
Because of his proven willingness to post polls unfavorable to his openly stated personal position, I trust the 2012 Poll Troll's posting accuracy. I can't say the same for the Romney Poll Troll because he hasn't demonstrated the same level of integrity. His bias is clear, his willingness to post the polls regardless of their content is not.
There, I've explained myself. Happy now, freeper whiners?
Good. Now fuck off.
- [quote]@ChuckTodd: "1 in 5 Ohioans have already voted & the President is winning among them 2-to-1... that's important." #msnbc2012 #VPDebate
- Cry freeper, cry.
- FRIDAY OCTOBER 12
Rasmussen Tracking\t [Romney +1]
Romney - 48
Obama - 47
President Obama Job Approval: Approve 50
- WISCONSIN - SENATE (Baldwin +4)
Baldwin (D) - 51
Thompson (R) - 47
Friday, October 12, 2012
Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin has reached the 50% mark of support against former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows Baldwin with 51% of the vote to Thompson’s 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
- PENNSYLVANIA - SENATE [Casey +10]
Casey (D) 48
Smith (R) 38\t
NEW JERSEY - SENATE [Menendez +14]
Menendez (D) 49
Kyrillos (R) 35
- That first debate really was a game-changer, perhaps the biggest game-changer in a modern American presidential campaign. Governor Christie was right.
- Jesus Christ--you'd think Mitt Romney split the fucking atom at that first debate
- I do wish people would remember IT'S ALL ABOUT THE ELECTORAL FUCKING COLLEGE. National polls don't mean jack shit.
- Fat Fatsie was not right R340. The national polling has tightened, but Obama still leads in the swing states. Obama is leading in Ohio and that's game over for Romney.
- Thank you, R343.
- Hopefully, r343, but complacency is the last thing we need.
- riday, October 12, 2012
Mitt Romney has crossed the 50% mark for the first time to widen his lead to four points in Florida.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Romney with 51% support to President Obama’s 47%. Two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This is the widest gap between the candidates in surveys this year, but Florida remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Prior to these findings, the candidates have been within two points of each other in Florida in every survey since April. Last week, it was Romney 49%, Obama 47%.
Obama carried Florida over John McCain in 2008 by a 51% to 49% margin.
- Complacency is no longer our problem after the first debate. Our problem now is gloom, doom, and panic depressing our energy, volunteering, donating, and voting. The media are in love with Romney-Ryan, and their biased review of last night's debate is just the latest evidence. THe media, including MSNBC, have decided to punish Obama for ostensibly not being prepared or energetic at the first debate, and are pissing on him by making the first debate the biggest story of the entire campaign, ignoring the good job numbers except for giving too much coverage to rightwing conspiracy theories about the numbers, feeding the narrative that Obama is in freefall, and by calling last night's VP debate a tie and criticizing Biden's laughter and demeanor as rude and disrespectful.
- You've got a lot of racist extremists in FLA. To offset that you need the young people and the Latinos and Blacks as well as women. Turnout is key. If they stay home, we lose.
I think FLA will tighten. I still believe it's up for grabs. I don't think VA is up for grabs. I think President Obama will win VA, but it will be tighter than a virgin's asshole.
- ARG polls
NH Romney +4; FL Romney +3
9 point swing toward Romney in NH. 8 point swing toward Romney in FL
- I think if the Romney trend continues, we need to focus on building a firewall in the Senate. We can't afford to have total Republican government, including the courts. We may on the cusp of the most radical government this nation has had that result in decades of an unrecognizable country. Also, we should be very concern that an Obama collapse could result in us losing every single gay rights vote this year. The last week has seen some of most stunning reversals in presidential polling ever measured.
- I can only imagine Obama is kicking himself every minute. You should never take a debate lightly.
- Not to downplay it, since Romney obviously got a bump from the debate, but it's important to note that ARG is a GOP firm.
- ARG has Obama only ahead with women by 1 percent in NH. If true, that would be one of the most radical developments of the last week, a total collapse of female Obama support. I think women are particularly vulnerable to media coverage which has been totally anti-Obama for 8 days.
- R340/346/347/349/350/351 is obviously a Concern Troll who is trying to spread the very "gloom, doom and panic" he/she claims to be railing against.
- It is like the media are still having a hissy fit that Obama ostensibly was unprepared and lethargic at the first debate. They are taking it almost like a personal insult. They are fixated and still treating it like fresh news. They virtually ignored the subsequent good jobs reports, except for giving coverage of kook conspiracy theories, and criticizing Biden for laughing and being assertive at his debate. I think media are being plain spiteful to Obama now. There is palpable malice akin to the sort they had for Gore in 2000.
- When you're complaining about the moderator and your opponent grinning too much, you know you've lost the debate.
- Biden clearly won, and the media clearly is biased. They were quick to call it a tie. Their agenda is clear and open.
- Piers Morgan's thoughts:
- I think the rightwing pollsters are trying to control the narrative. Gravis, Rasmussen, ARG, and WeaskAmerica are rigth-leaning and seem to be the most aggressive in releasing polls this week. I find it curious that the rightist pollsters are just now releasing polls like a coordinated avalanche. And the media are reporting them without questions or caveat.
- Not a poll, but could someone with thread-starting capabilities start a thread on this story?
A Florida chapter of the pro-gay Log Cabin Republicans has published an attack ad against the Obama administration that prominently features a picture of slain Ambassador Chris Stevens, who was killed in an attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya last month. Accompanying the picture is the claim that the President refuses to protect gay and gay friendly Americans against “Islamic radicalism.”
Funded by the Broward County Log Cabin Republicans, the ad calls for LGBT voters to support the Republican Party because of its support for Israel. Israel, according to the flyer, is the “one beacon of hope in the Middle East protecting our communities human rights.” The ad further insinuates that President Obama will impose sharia law on the United States in a second term. The full ad as published in the Florida Agenda, an LBGT newspaper
In making its assertions, the ad perpetuates two rumors surrounding the death of Stevens. The first, that the group shown in the picture was proudly dragging his body through the streets, has been roundly debunked. Translated video of the moments captured in the picture shows that the group was taking the Ambassador to the hospital for treatment. The second is that Stevens was himself gay, an unsubstantiated claim that right-wing blogs have seized on to claim that the Obama administration “needlessly enraged the passions of protesters” in the Middle East.
- For those still into the Nate Silver dude:
A sobering read from Nate Silver this morning
Obama's chances are now 66% (down from 70% earlier this week and 85% pre-debate)
The case that Mr. Romney’s bounce is evaporating after his debate last week in Denver continues to look a bit thin...they do provide useful information about the day-to-day trend in the race, and so far they haven’t shown the sort of reversal that Democrats might have hoped for.
But although we do perceive some advantage for Mr. Obama in the Electoral College relative to the popular vote, I would caution our readers against thinking that it’s all that robust.
- Let's see what Nate is saying this time NEXT week.
10-1 Obama will be up again.
- Look Team OBama, the one area where Biden was outdebated last night was on the Libya crisis. Team Romney are going in and have been going on for Obama on this the very day it happened. Now, Obama better be prepared and have a kick ass explanation at the next debates. They have NOTICE that they will be attacked on Libya, and there is no excuse for not having a killer response.
- Republican pollsters were successful in changing the narrative of the race by flooding the media with polls taken the 2 days after the first debate, which showed a huge swing toward Romney. This, in turn, caused Dems to panic and the media to jump on the Romney Comeback bandwagon.
You have to wonder if Romney peaked too early, though.
- Nate Silver is starting to panic as he sees his credibility slipping away. Obama slipping 20-points in a week?
- Gallup now showing Romney up by 2 points, 49-47. This date in 2008 Obama led McCain 51-44.
Trying not to freak out.
- Gallup: R 49 - O 47+
- Pundits in general are looking bad. Too many of them foolishly predicted Obama was almost certain to win before there had been even one debate. Others claimed that debates never decide elections. Well, they are eating crow and looking foolish. Unfortunately, we all will suffer for what happened last week for a very long time.
- Let's be realistic: the first debate was a game-changer, no matter what some pundits say.
President Obama can bring folks back to the fold and energize the base, but he has to shine next week.
And Romney has to make a huge gaffe.
I think Obama will take Ohio and keep the White House but it's going to be much more of a squeaker than we thought.
But it's still more than three weeks out. Things can changing quickly, for better or for worse.
But it's all about Ohio....
- It saddens me to think what a Romney victory would do to race relations in this country. It would demoralize African-Americans for a generation. And politically speaking, Democrats would have an extremely hard time getting them to vote again in large numbers. Same with the Hispanic community.
It's white women who are abandoning Obama right now. Better stock up on wire-hangers, ladies. And all you old people better have extra money saved up to pay for your Rx drugs, health screenings and nursing homes.
- True r370. I am Black, and I sense the Romney surge is at least partly racially motivated. why was Obama support so soft that one bad debate performance led to his downfall in a way never before seen in history? Before the debates, conservatives planted dog whistle seeds that Obama is lazy, arrogant, aloof, disengaged, and needs a TelePrompter. To racist Americans, the debate confirmed those talking points. I am very disenchanted with Americans now. This is worse than 2004.
- This is a nightmare, we can't let that lying, unprincipled fucker Romney win, this CANNOT happen.
- Obama does need more than Ohio. That takes him to 265 electoral votes of 270. He'd need to pick up one other state (two if New Hampshire is one) from the other swings. And that assumes he keeps Wisconsin. I don't know what the next best option is - Nevada? New Hampshire? Virginia?
I'm still not giving up but it is getting a tad depressing. I think what the poll pundits didn't credit is that there is a group of people that we're waiting for a reason not to vote for Obama. Romney was such a dweeb that they didn't have one but given his exaggeratedly better performance in the debates gave them one.
- R 370, I agree with you. But the American people are going to get the government that they deserve. If they are too fucking stupid to realize what CAUSED the financial crisis to begin with, if they are willfully ignoring Mitt Romney's continual shape-shifting on pivotal issues, not to mention his 47% remarks, the unreleased tax returns, being the outsourcer-in-chief at Bain, then you know what, fine. I'll move abroad for my retirement in 2040 since presumably Medicare will be gone by then.
- I am think Obama's challenge is that once a non-white person is perceived to do something less than perfectly, Americans tend to view their subsequent actions more harshly even if subsequent performance is stellar. As we say, being Black means you have to work twice as hard. People may tend to judge the next debates based on their prejudice from the first one.
- I wonder what can be done to put Florida back in Obama's column other than him turning white? What is Team Obama doing down there, I hope they haven't given up already.
- Well it would help if the fucking Obama team would send out e-mails that were more energetic and optimistic. I get these threatening, doom and gloom e-mails with this sense of urgency and they're both intimidating and scarey. No one wants to be browbeaten into volunteering or contributing. If we are at all engaged, we know it's close and we need to mobilize. We don't need the verbal histrionics.
- MICHIGAN - PRESIDENT [Obama +7]
Obama - 52
Romney - 45\t
Friday, October 12, 2012
President Obama continues to earn over 50% of the vote in Michigan, but his lead over Mitt Romney has narrowed a bit this month.
The latest Ramussen Reports national telephone survey finds 52% of Likely Voters in Michigan support the president, while 45% give their vote to Romney. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided.
- Jesus, some of you are a big bunch of Marys and Concern Trolls. NOT A SINGLE Electoral College projection has forecast a Romney victory. Nate Silver is still projecting Obama will win with 289 electoral votes. Electoral-vote.com has Obama with 294 electoral votes. The way some of you bitches are screaming, you'd think the electoral map has suddenly turned solid red.
- Obama needs a gamechanger. That 47% tape. It should have been released this week, not three or four weeks ago. That Carter kid should have been put on the payroll in Chicago, and he should have been muzzled. The 47% should have been Obama's "October surprise. "
Maybe there's something else out there. They used up their Bain Capital stuff, they used up the off shore bank accounts and the tax returns.Keep in mind the opposition, ROmney & the Superpacs are carpet bombing swing states with negative ads. The timing and the pacing of the GOP assault is really ipressive. I hate them.
They need to keep hitting on the voucers and the "women's issues", which go beyond abortion. Women care about the economy. So the equal pay law Obama signed, and saving the auto industry affects them too. So does the Affordable Heathcare Act.
- [quote] Well it would help if the fucking Obama team would send out e-mails that were more energetic and optimistic.
What do you expect them to say? "We're definitely going to win. There's no chance of Romney winning. But please send us money anyway."
[quote] I get these threatening, doom and gloom e-mails with this sense of urgency and they're both intimidating and scarey. No one wants to be browbeaten into volunteering or contributing.
Those tactics are obviously working, because Obama has been successful in raising money and recruiting volunteers.
- Why are liberals this way? I read a statement somewhere from a pollster that said "[w]hen conservatives get bad news they want to kill you. When liberals get bad news they want to kill themselves." But why is this? I don't get it.
When Obama had a "bad" debate liberals were bashing him from the get-go, even before conservatives were sure they'd "won." Now with the VP debate conservatives know they lost, but they don't go after Ryan. Instead they go after Biden or Raddatz or the "media". They don't eat their own, so why do liberals? Is their really something so different in the makeup of liberals and conservatives?
- R379, it's not being Marys entirely. Nate Silver is looking at how things are currently but if you look at the details state-by-state most of the swing states are moving toward 50-50 and all momentum continues to move to Romney.
Looking at it right now though he has the probably of Obama getting Ohio, New Hampshire and Nevada all in the upper 60% and that's all he would need so that is indeed a good sign. But that is 275 electoral votes only. Virginia is barely over a 50% chance and he now has Romney as a slight favorite for Florida and Colorado.
- An October surprise needs to happen next week before the debate:
1) Drone attacks on Libyan targets associated with ambassador's murder
2) 2009 tax returns
3) Ann Romney having sex with one of her horses
- [quote]Nate Silver: Democratic Senate numbers holding up well
80%+ Chance to keep Senate
- [quote]3) Ann Romney having sex with one of her horses[/quote]
Dude haven't I suffered enough? Leave me out of it.
- Obama has edged ahead of Romney in today's IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll. Earlier in the week, Romney was (+5). Now Obama is almost (+1). That's a 5-6 point drop for Romney over the course of the week.
[quote]IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election
Daily Tracking Poll
[quote]Oct. 12, 2012
Obama - 46.4%
Romney - 45.7%
The presidential race tightened further, with Obama holding a slight but statistically insignificant edge over Romney. In short, the race is a statistical dead heat.
Romney held on to his edge among the key independent voting bloc, with a 19-point advantage.
He also pulled even with Obama with upper-income voters, who had given Obama an 8-point edge a day earlier.
But Obama made gains among traditional Democrat voting blocs, including blacks, Hispanics and middle-income voters.
- I just hope that last night's debate puts a stop to Obama's plummet, and he can start to regain lost ground and come out ahead of Romney.
Going to pop a Xanax.
- Independents are just Republicans. I hope Obama can still win without them.
- 2012 Poll Troll, how reliable is the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll based on your experience? Is it one of the good ones or do they tend to serve up a lot outliers?
- [quote]Going to pop a Xanax.
I drank half a bottle of wine before the debate.
- Post from a few days ago when the IBD Poll had a good sized lead for Romney
[quote]The IBD/TIPP poll is disturbing but Nate Silver has always said they're full of shit.
So do we disparage the quality of a pollster when it shows Obama behind and then celebrate and post it with conviction when it shows Obama ahead?
Is this a Nate Silver-type thing where he is smart when he shows a big Obama lead and an idiot when he has the lead rapidly falling?
- R390, the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll was showing consistently good numbers for Obama earlier this year. Romney only took the lead after his good debate performance, and it seems to have been reflecting that.
The fact that it is now shifting back to Obama may be a good sign.
I think the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll is included by Nate Silver as one of the polls he uses in his model, and I believe he discussed it earlier this week.
I will read his Friday Night update later today to see how he views it.
- Not the Poll Troll but from what I've seen the IBD/TIPP poll is a very volatile poll and personally that makes me nervous.
- [quote]TPM: Romney National Lead Falls to 1.2%
- Is Bill Clinton going back on the campaign trail any time soon? Someone send him to OH, FL, and VA, stat!
- Overall RealClearPolitics National Poll Average
Romney - 47.3%
Obama - 46.3%
In the seven polls posted on the site since the completion of the first debate, Romney is ahead in five and the race is tied in two
On this date in 2008, Obama was ahead by 7.6% and ultimately won by 7.2%
On this date in 2004, Bush was ahead by 1,5% and ultimately won by 2.4%
- Other polls on RealClearPolitics not posted by the Poll Troll
Gallup Daily Tracking
Romney - 49%
Obama - 47%
Romney gained one point versus yesterday's tracking poll
- [quote]Is Bill Clinton going back on the campaign trail any time soon?
He's been on the campaign trail all week.
Monday - At a California fundraiser with Obama
Tuesday - At a Las Vegas rally for Obama
Wednesday - At an Arizona rally for Richard Carmona
Thursday - In Indiana for Joe Donnelly (the Democrat trying to win the Senate seat of the retiring Richard Lugar).
Romney + 2
Romney - 49%
Obama - 47%
Romney picked up one point here versus the previous Rasmussen poll. The previous poll was taken the day following the Presidential debate
Romney + 1
Romney - 48%
Obama - 47%
Romney has picked up two points over their previous poll taken in September.
Rasmussen Poll - Romney +4
Romney - 51%
Obama - 47%
Romney picked up 2 points versus the Rasmussen poll taken in the state last week. Both polls were taken after the Presidential debate.
- New Hampshire
ARG - Romney + 4
Romney - 50
Obama - 46
ARG had Obama ahead by 5 points in New Hampshire in their previous poll taken 9/27. In fact, ARG had Obama ahead in all four of their polls prior to this one with Obama's lead averaging 4 percent.
This is a shift of 9 points versus their previous poll and 8 points versus the average of their four prior polls.
ARG - Romney + 3
Romney - 49%
Obama - 46%
ARG had Obama ahead by 5 points in their previous Florida poll, taken last month.
Romney has picked up 8 points since that poll.
Looking across all Florida polls taken entirely since the debate, Romney has won five out of six with an average lead of 3 points
- ...why are we wringing our hands at polls that are still reflecting the bounce from the presidential debate????
the polls to look at will be monday and tuesday and then AFTER tueday night's second debate....
- All of the national and swing state Presidential polls posted on RealClearPolitics are posted above, giving you a complete and unvarnished view of the state of the election
- All these massive shifts towards Romney are making me VERY suspicious that there is some kind of mischief afoot with the polling methods.
Of course, it could just mean that Americans are the stupidest people to have ever inhabited the planet, which is a distinct possibility.
- The VP debate and all the talk of Biden winning it should help Obama in the next few days.
- Just ignore anything that has not been posted by Poll Troll. He doesn't just post polls, he provide some analysis.
- Yes, thank-you, R406.
Remember to mention that ARG is a Republican-leaning pollster, though.
- And some of them were posted earlier. And those that favored Obama were ignored. It appears we have a freeper in our midst reposting some New Hampshire and Florida polls that were posted earlier.
- I agree R409.
- [quote]Remember to mention that ARG is a Republican-leaning pollster, though
12PT, the thing that surprised me in the ARG results is the significant bump for Romney versus their previous polls.
Is there any indication that they changed their polling methodology?
Otherwise, wouldn't the trend line mean something?
- It looks like if you look across all nine of the competitive state and national polls posted on Real Clear Politics, Obama improved in one poll and Romney improved in 8 polls.
Romney's average improvement was 2.8% versus the last poll done by the same company.
- Provided that Biden's debate performance can stop Obama's downward polling spiral, when would we start to see this reflected in the polling? 2 or 3 days?
- (but again, all this Romney improvement is still based in large part on the presidential debate, and last night's Biden 'win' will be reflected in polls early NEXT week, right?)
- Question: has any sitting President (in the 20th or 21st century) been behind in the polls mid-October and gone on to win?
- R397-R406 this is the first time you have posted to this thread?
- Donate tonight before the deadline, boys.
- R418, isn't troll-dar working on this thread?
- These new polls are samples of likely voters, but with Team Obama's superior GOTV efforts, they may be underestimating Democratic voters, especially minorities.
It's almost a certainty that Democrats have already banked more actual votes in early voting than Republicans have. The big question is will they bank enough votes during early voting to offset the likely Romney advantage on election day? I saw where Obama leads 5-to-1 in Ohio early voting, but Romney leads by 10-points with Ohio voters who plan to vote on election day.
- I just asked you a question, R420.
- R418 and R422 clicking on troll-dar would tell you that you did not ask me a question. I was asking if it was broken out of curiosity wondering if the site was screwed up. You would see that if you clicked on troll-dar so you are either too lazy or too stupid to do it.
- It's a possibility that Romney wins the popular vote and Obama wins the electoral college, just like in 2000. And if that happens, look for Romney to tie things up for months with legal challenges in close states.
I live in a solid red state, but I can't wait to vote for Obama because it feels good to voice my opinion, and because my vote does count in the popular vote.
- [quote] Question: has any sitting President (in the 20th or 21st century) been behind in the polls mid-October and gone on to win?
Obama isn't "behind in the polls." The RealClearPolitics average currently puts Romney ahead by 1 point. Gallup puts Romney ahead by 2 points. Rasmussen puts Romney ahead by 1 point. All of those are within the margin of error, which means they show a statistical tie. We won't be able to say Obama is "behind in the polls" unless the national trackers start showing Romney up by 4 or 5 points.
- I predict next week things will start to turn around for Obama. I don't think he'll get a bounce from the Biden debate performance but it will stop the slide in the polls, get the dems fired up and the repugs will still be all pissy about how "mean" Biden was. Obama isn't an emotional guy, but he will come out swinging at the next debate and will be better at defending his record & calling Romney out on his shit. I still think this is his race to lose no matter what the polls say.
F**CK U RASMUSSEN!
- I didn't ask you about trolldar, R423 et.al.
I asked you if this was the first time you posted to the thread.
So why can't you answer this very simple question?
- [quote]Reuters/Ipsos poll: Romney lead slips to 46 to 45 percent
Fri Oct 12, 2012 3:57pm EDT
In a sign the race is tightening again, Romney led Obama by 1 percentage point, 46 to 45 percent, among likely voters in the Reuters/Ipsos daily online tracking poll released on Friday. Romney led by 3 percentage points in Thursday's poll. Most poll respondents were questioned before the vice presidential debate.
- I predict that after this week things will turn around for Obama. He won't necessarily get a bounce from the Biden debate, but the base is pumped after the Biden debate, media will stop bashing him constantly and he will go in to next week's debate with something to prove.
There is a Maureen Down column this week about how he's like Bill Clinton and that he does best when his back is up against the wall. I still think it's his race to lose no matter what any polls say.
- I think that's exactly what the polls say, R429.
- [quote]how he's like Bill Clinton and that he does best when his back is up against the wall.
I have been saying this here for a long time but no one believes me, it was the same in 2008, he ALWAYS comes back when he's counted out.
- Consumer Confidence Rises To Five-Year High
October 12th, 2012 2:08 pm
In another sign that the U.S. economy is improving, a new Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey shows that consumer confidence has risen to its highest level in over five years.
According to the University of Michigan index, which measures both people’s assessment of their current financial conditions and their expectations for the future, consumer confidence rose to 83.1 — a nearly 5-point jump from last month’s rating of 78.3. That significantly beat the expectations of most analysts, who expected the rating to drop.
“What changed was how [consumers] evaluated economic conditions,” survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement. “Economic conditions during the year ahead were expected to be ‘good’ by more consumers, and more consumers expected ‘good’ economic times over the next five years.”
- Undecided voters tend to vote for the challenger.
- Check this out:
- Not true, R433. Nate Silver did a piece on that earlier this year.
That's merely what Dick Morris claims.
- Some lying Christian R434. The polls did not all show John Kerry ahead before the election.
- Thanks r398. I am sick of coming here and always seeing the cheerleading for Obama. Some of us are voting for Romney in November.
- Do fuck off, R437. You are on an LGBT board and if you vote for Romney, a bigot who plans to enshrine hate in the U.S. constitution, you HATE gay people (oh, and old people, and women, and minorities, and the poor, too). So FUCK OFF OFF this *GAY* forum, you pathetic closet case TROLL.
- [quote]Thanks [R398]. I am sick of coming here and always seeing the cheerleading for Obama. Some of us are voting for Romney in November.
Only you small-penised people.
- How long before the polls come out after the VP debate? I want to see how much good Biden did us in terms of percentage points.
- In the last 30 minutes I've seen 4 Romney TV ads.
I think people might giving too much importance to the debates.
- I hope Obama has his ads going non-stop in the battlegrounds and the rest of the country. They better step it up.
- r434, where doe he post his odds because I want to make a bet on Obama to win if he is giving landslide odds.
Can't find him here in Las Vegas.
- Not understanding the latest polls showing Obama's support at 45; shouldn't he have gotten some sort of bump from the jobs data? Could it be that the media meltdown over the debates is really influencing people this much? The last job approval I saw was at over 50%, but there is a disparity in his job approval and his poll numbers. This is confusing and discouraging.
- R445, The job numbers don't fit into the media's script, so they've ignored them for the most part.
All the media has talked about for the past 4 years is the weak economy and jobs. Now that both are improving, they don't mention them at all. Apparently, the only thing that matters in this country anymore is to deliver your scripted and rehearsed debate lines better than your opponent.
- I think people are overreacting to the post-presidential debate polls.
The President will be just fine. We will hold the White House and the Senate. Ryan put a dagger through the heart of the Romney campaign last night. On abortion alone he lost Romney a ton of votes from women. On Medicare they're losing seniors. On immigration they've lost Latinos. They can't finesse this enough to overcome their weaknesses.
- Evil right wing fuckwits:
Shot fired at Obama campaign headquarters in Denver
The Denver Post
Police say someone fired a shot at the Obama campaign's Denver headquarters Friday afternoon.
No one was injured, though people were inside the offices when the incident occurred, said Denver police spokeswoman Raquel Lopez.
"It looks like it was one shot that was fired into the structure," she said.
The incident happened at about 3 p.m. at the campaign's offices on West Ninth Avenue near Acoma Street, Lopez said.
Sam Levin, a reporter for the alternative newspaper Westword, later posted a photo on Twitter showing one of the office's large, front windows broken out.
Lopez said police have a description of a "possible vehicle of interest." She said she could not release that information while detectives are reviewing any available video footage of the incident and pursuing leads.
An Obama campaign spokeswoman declined to comment on the incident, instead referring a question to the police.
- [quote]On abortion alone he lost Romney a ton of votes from women.
I think THIS will really be a problem for R&R as the weeks go on.
- It's shocking to me how old people are fine with Romney doing away with Medicare for their children and grandchildren as long as they're not personally affected by it. What a bunch of selfish asses.
Greatest generation, my ass!
- [quote]I am sick of coming here and always seeing the cheerleading for Obama.
Then stop coming here. It's pretty simple.
[quote]Some of us are voting for Romney in November.
*shrug* So? A certain percentage of the population is abysmally ignorant. We already know that, dear; you don't have to post here and confirm it.
- R452 is awesome. I had an orgasm reading his post.
- 10/12/12) -
Obama and Romney Are Tied as U.S. Presidential Election Nears
Since September, the incumbent president has lost ground among women and voters aged 35-to-54.
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney head to the final weeks of the American presidential campaign with the same level of support, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample of 906 registered American voters, 47 per cent of respondents who express a preference (-1 since September) say they will support the incumbent president and Democratic Party nominee in this year’s election, while 47 per cent (+1) would cast a ballot for Republican Party nominee Mitt Romney.
Obama keeps a commanding lead among registered voters aged 18-to-34 (60% to 32%). The Democrat has lost ground among registered voters aged 35-to-54, and now trails Romney (54% to 40%). The GOP nominee is still ahead among registered voters over the age of 55 (55% to 42%).
Since September, a sizeable fluctuation is observed with female voters. Obama held a ten-point advantage over Romney, which has dwindled to just four points (50% to 46%). The GOP nominee is still ahead of the Democratic incumbent among male voters (49% to 44%).
Romney has his best numbers in the South (53%), while Obama is more popular in the Northeast (54%) and the Midwest (51%). In the West, the two candidates are tied with 46 per cent.
- Bravo R452.
- I wish someone could explain the women voting shift.
It's completely insane.
- I guess the Obama Team is not speaking out strongly enough about how big a threat Romney/Ryan are to women's rights and issues of choice - they need to REALLY get on that and soon because it's something that really resonates when women are made aware of the stark differences of Obama and Romney.
- [quote]The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll
- Agreed . They are also the greediest.
- I think they're targeting the message about women...I get a ton of emails from different groups every day, and the ones from people like Kirsten Gillibrand and Patty Murray often emphasize the Republican war on women.
It's the ground game at this point...the one who is most successful at getting people OUT TO VOTE is going to take it; and if it's the Dems, they have to have lots more people watching the polls, especially in swing states.
Get 88-year-old Jimmy Carter out there at a polling place where they're turning blacks away. THAT'll get some play.
- I totally agree with that R451 - that's my parents! My mom in particular, who has a lot of health problems and needs tons of care somehow thinks it's okay that the government pays for her but the not the next generation.
I know she's a compassionate person & it's not clear how Obamacare will play out, but I can't believe that she genuinely doesn't give a shit that her generation will bankrupt medicaire leaving nothing for her kids & grandkids when they get old and she's voting for people who promote this very idea. We actually had a phone call the other night that turned rather hostile because of this issue. It's very disheartening
- It's not polling but it is anecdotal: my mom, who is a white, Catholic senior in Maryland, who usually does what the bishop tells her (abortion has always been her litmus test, and she went over to the Republicans during Reagan), told me this morning that she's going for Obama because "Romney is too rich." And she's also voting "yes" on 6 (in Maryland) so "EVERYONE can have civil rights." She also LOVES Joe Biden.
(Unless, of course, she just told me this to get me off her back).
On the other hand, my brother, who defines angry white male, said he doesn't like Romney, but he's not voting for a "socialist" who has a "shady background." (He also works for the state, so I guess he's in denial that he's one of those leeches of big government the Repubs so decry.)
However, he's aware enough he's in a blue state, and has often voted for third parties, just to be contrary.
- See, here's the thing, R437: you're free to vote for whomever you wish in November. And you're free to post here in support of that candidate.
But we're also free to point out that you're supporting a campaign of unprecedented and blatant lies (see link), an anti-gay candidate who wants to roll back protections of our civil rights, and a candidate whose positions on foreign policy issues, on economic issues, on other domestic issues, would be disastrous for the country.
You feel strongly about that candidate? Then defend him here. Explain why you think he's not an unprecedented and blatant liar. Explain why you think he's not an anti-gay candidate who wants to roll back protections on our civil rights. Explain why his policies make sense for the country.
So far, not one of you has been able to do this. I'm guessing that the reason for this is that you know you'll have your ass handed to you by the knowledgeable group of people here. So instead, you bitch and whine about how picked on you are and how everyone here is against you. Well, cry me a fucking river. Grow a spine, for once, and take responsibility for your views and your actions. And if you're not prepared to do that, fuck you; you deserve all of the contempt you're receiving.
- Marry me, R463.
- President Obama's campaign said today that Bruce Springsteen will appear along with ex-President Bill Clinton a pro-Obama rally Thursday in Parma, Ohio.
Bruce Springsteen's values echo what the President and Vice President (Biden) stand for: hard work, fairness, integrity," said Jim Messina, Obama for America's campaign manager. "His appearances will help with our get out the vote effort in these critical swing states and we are thrilled with his ongoing support."
- Oh, great! A multi-multi millionaire who hasn't been blue collar for about 30 years is going to preach about what it's like to be blue collar! Go BRUUUUUUCEE!
- That's great news, R465.
- [quote] Oh, great! A multi-multi millionaire who hasn't been blue collar for about 30 years is going to preach about what it's like to be blue collar!
But Springsteen, like Bill Clinton, is someone who can speak to and empathize with blue-collar people, even though he's a celebrity with a ton of money. Mittens' problem isn't that he's rich. It's that he doesn't know how to interact with people who aren't rich.
- Obama needs to carpet bomb the aiways with real voters endorsing him like the young family with the sick kid at the Convention. He doesn't need Bruce Springsteen. I love Bruce, but he will contribute nothing to moving Obama ahead in the polls.
- Pro-Republican likely voter screens are underestimating Dem turnout:
"Early voting -- both mail and in-person -- is on pace to exceed 2008 levels, when about 30 percent of all votes nationally were cast prior to Election Day. The 2008 levels may be exceeded even further in states such as Iowa and Ohio, where early voting has been brisk. As a corollary, with no collapse in early voting, there is no indication so far that overall turnout, both early and Election Day, will be substantially lower than 2008."
Iowa sticks out as a sore thumb in early voting. Already, more than 200,000 people have voted in Iowa, a much larger share of the potential 2012 electorate than any other state.
The number of registered Democrats who have voted is about twice that of registered Republicans, 53 percent to 28 percent, with the remainder unaffiliated. Bet let's not be so fast in calling Iowa for Obama. In 2008, Democrats outpaced Republicans 47 percent to 29 percent among early voters. Among the nearly 400,000 ballot requests in 2012, Democrats outnumber Republicans by a narrower margin: 48 percent to 30 percent. Republicans have been steadily making up ground among the votes cast and the ballot requests.
Romney needs more Republicans to vote early or needs Election Day to be vastly different, since Obama won the state by nine percentage points in 2008. An early vote electorate that looks like 2008 would therefore pose a difficult uphill climb for Romney. If these early vote numbers fail to firm up further for Romney, Iowa may be the first state where the campaign will have to make a tough strategic decision as to whether or not to continue expending resources.
- Let's be realistic - the news is not good right now.
We need to do everything we can to win.
Vote. Donate. Volunteer.
- Don't believe the media's meme that Democrats are not as enthusiastic to vote as in 2008. The early voting numbers in swing states has proven just the opposite.
- ARIZONA - PRESIDENT [Obama +2]
Rocky Mountain Poll
Obama (D) - 44.0 \t
Romney (R) - 42.0 \t
Johnson (L) - 3.0 \t
Stein (G) - 1.0
ARIZONA - SENATE [Carmona +4]
Rocky Mountain Poll
Carmona (D) - 44.0
Flake (R) - 40.0\t
Unsure - 16.0
- Thanks PT12!
Are those numbers the same or have they shifted?
- Here is a link to the full Rocky Mountain Poll internals, R475.
I will post an excerpt from it:
Phoenix, Arizona, October 13, 2012.
After trailing Mitt Romney by as much as eight points in thedays immediately following the Presidential debate, the President is now in a statistical tie with Romney inArizona both as regards the overall electorate and among those mostly likely to cast ballots. While Obama leads Romney by two points in the race for President, the gap is within the study’s margin of error andbasically means they are in a dead heat.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Richard Carmona has a four point lead over Republican Jeff Flake, which again indicates a dead even race, since the vote gap is within the margin of error of the survey. Thus it must be concluded that Arizona is definitely a battleground state for both the Presidential and the U.S. Senate races and there can be little doubt but that the outcome will be largely dependent on whichpolitical party does the best job in turning out its voters and whether the Democrats can hang onto the Latino vote.
In both races, the Democrat candidates are drawing strongly from the ranks of minority voters and especially from Latinos. The credibility of Latino leadership to organize and produce voters via their grassroots campaigns this year will be put to a real test. If Latinos turn out in numbers proportionate to their population, which has never been the case in the past, they could help send a Democrat to the U.S. Senate and revitalize the once long tradition of Arizona having one Democrat and one Republican in the Senate. But if the Latino vote is disproportionately low, the Arizona Senate delegation will almost certainly stay in the GOP column.
- Thanks again, PT12.
- I don't think we should underestimate something several posters have mentioned, which I've also noticed in a friend. There is a major white working class resentment of Romney because he's "too rich." That's what they say: He's too rich.
People understand self-made millionaires, whether it's Springsteen or Steve Jobs, and they likely respect them. They don't like this entitled, inherited wealth bubble that Romney represents. When people say he's out of touch, that's part of what they mean.
- [quote]Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming
Arizona Latinos Favor Democrats by Wide Margins
In the presidential race, 80% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for President Obama, while 14% said they will vote for Romney and 6% are undecided. The largest vote share for Obama of any state.
In the U.S. Senate race, 75% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for Richard Carmona (D), while 12% said they will vote for Rep. Jeff Flake(R) and 13% are undecided.
In addition, 69% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their U.S. House race, while 14% will vote Republican and another 14% are undecided.
- A Carmona win could be the first sign of a sea change in AZ politics. The first real proof that AZ is slowly becoming a purple state. It's the biggest senate race in the country to watch, IMO. With Jon Kyl retiring, and McCain unlikely to run again, things are looking good for Dems in AZ for 2016.
Sadly, Gabby Giffords would've had a real chance of taking McCain's seat.
- Second what r472 said -
"Let's be realistic - the news is not good right now"
To me it's unbelievable that one bad debate performance changed so many people's minds. I didn't see it, grant you. But either the support was soft and people were looking for an excuse not to vote for Obama - or he was really, really so bad that he turned people off.
- Poll Troll, do you only post polls in Dems' favor? I'm just curious.
- Didn't Joe Biden save the day?
What's all this poo pooing about? Joe saved Obama's ass, rubbing out that first horrible debate he gave.
If Obama doesn't knock it out of the park with the next one, he probably shouldn't have sought another term.
If Romney is able to pull this out in the end, we are so fucked!
The next president will likely get to make four lifetime Supreme Court appointments. Gays will have to leave the country if they want to be free, and abortion will become illegal.
- [quote]To me it's unbelievable that one bad debate performance changed so many people's minds
The debate revealed that the emperor has no clothes.
The media was exposed as being nothing but kiss-ass enablers who have never challenged Obama on anything. They are embarrassed.
The great and powerful OZbama is nothing but an ordinary man behind the teleprompter.
- Someone spray some Febreze. R484 just stunk up the thread.
- NATE SILVER UPDATE:
Obama increased his chances of winning today from a low of 61% yesterday up to 63% today.
- Dear deluded Dorothy @ R484,
Romney may win Kansas, but he aint winning Ohio. And without Ohio, he aint winning period.
Now back to freeperland, before we drop a house on you.
Great and Powerful Ozbama
- NATE SILVER SENATE UPDATE:
Democrats have a 83.6% chance to Win the Senate.
Example: Elizabeth Warren currently has a 79% chance of winning in MA.
- [quote]Poll Troll, do you only post polls in Dems' favor? I'm just curious.
No, I have posted all polls in the past - good and bad for the Dems.
I admit that this week I have not posted some of the Gravis & ARG polls because I think some of them are junk and are deliberately inflating Romney's numbers.
I'll start posting them again on Monday.
- R484 sounds like a total moronic idiot. The only people who went for Romney after the debate were the really DUMB voters who was paying no attention to the election for the past several months. If they were they'd realize that Romney totally changed all his positions and reversed everything he previously said during the primaries and just basically the week and the day before.
That debate was the ultimate etch a sketch performance for Romney.
If you believe anything Romney says, which always depends on whose ass he wants to kiss at the moment, then you're a first class fool. Romney knows that reliably there's always a percentage of low IQ voters willing to vote for a lot of smoke and mirrors and lies. That poster just proved it by outing himself as close to politically illiterate.
- At least the Nate Obama number has gone up.
- FYI: Has anyone looked at the Pew Poll that sent the Democrats into near hysterics? Check it out. Serious oversampling of the Republicans (in fact, 30% more than the September poll). Poll Troll, do you get the feeling like I do that one reason these polls are swinging so wildly is because of the sampling?
- Asking the Poll Troll for poll analysis is like asking a parrot to talk to you. It may repeat something it's heard elsewhere but it's not going to give you any independent insight.
- PT - I love you but you are eliminating the truth many times. Come to the middle darling and just tell us the truth instead of just posting how great BO is. BO might not win this.
- I've posted most of the new information out today. There are very few polls available today.
The most talked about one today is the ARIZONA poll.
And I have linked to Nate Silver's updates above for the Presidency and the Senate.
- Looks like someone's changed his IP address.
- I don't know why you'd say that, R493. The 2012 Poll Troll does give analysis from time to time but doesn't overwhelm the thread or the polling information with his opinions about them.
The problem with guys like you is that you spend too much time with Faux Noise where you get nothing but biased opinions overwhelming the meager, skewed facts provided to you. The rest of the world doesn't work that way.
Keep up the great work here, 2012 Poll Troll. We really appreciate you taking the time and making the effort to post the polls on the DL.
- Here's how Nate Silver words it today:
[quote]Obama finally broke Romney's 8-day winning streak in our forecast. 62.9% to win EC (vs 61.1% Fri)
- Should Romney win, he won't be able to pass his right-wing agenda with a Democratic controlled Senate. That means no repeal of Obamacare, or big changes to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. He also won't be able to appoint severely conservative justices to the Supreme Court. It helps that most of the Blue Dog Democratic senators have retired and could be replaced with the likes of Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin.
I also think Dems will narrow the majority in the House and possibly take it back in 2014 if Romney turns out to be a dud.
- The Romney Comeback meme is sooooo last week. Next week is all about Obama's Big Comeback!
- OHIO - PRESIDENT [Obama +5]
Public Policy Polling
Obama - 51
Romney - 46
[quote]Barack Obama leads our new Ohio poll 51-46, not much different from 2 weeks ago when it was 49-45
[quote]19% of Ohioans say they've already voted and Obama has a 76-24 advantage with them. Romney up 51-45 with folks who haven't voted yet
- Link please to Romney being antigay. Im sick of that bullshit straw man talking point. your pathetic boy oba was still evolving when Romney passes gay marraige. so fuck off scumbag faggot.
- [quote]Ohio voters think Biden won the debate Thursday night 46-37, including 44-32 with independents
- The Obama campaign is going to be hauling Ohio voters to the polls after the two Springsteen concerts on Thursday. That's how you get young people to the polls. They need to get Bon Jovi, Jay-Z and Beyonce out there, too.
- Bill Clinton will also be there with Springsteen, R504.
- R052, are you a moron? Romney gave MILLIONS of his personal money to support Prop 8 in California.
He signed the NOM pledge, vowing to support an anti-gay Constitutional Amendment.
Linked is the HRC score-card on both Obama and Romney:
- Obama campaign out with a new ad narrated by Morgan Freeman. It's really effective.
- Er, stupid typo... that should be R502
- Go, OHIO!!!
The OFA team is doing an amazing job with early voting. 76/24 margins?
No wonder Republicans were trying to stop early voting. Losers.
- Not to mention the assault & battery on the gay student at college, R506.
- [quote]The Romney Comeback meme is sooooo last week.
So is the word, 'meme'.
- Hey, does anyone have a link to that Obama "pro-gay rights" video that came out last May-ish, and was linked here recently (last month?) ... I can't seem to find it anywhere.
It had Obama talking about equal rights for gay people, and talked about the repeal of DADT, and support for same-sex marriage, etc.
- POLL TROLL - another big ol' sloppy kiss "THANK YOU" for the job you do. (I am embarrassed, of course, that polls from my state are not needed - maybe, just maybe, some day we will return to the times when 50% of our US Reps and our Gov were Dems, but that is far off I am very afraid). Keep up the great work!
- Doesn't matter... Romney's biggest doner owns all the voting machines:
- Current SENATE Projections From Nate Silver:
MA (Elizabeth Warren) Chance of winning\t: 79%
MO (Claire McCaskill) Chance of winning:\t 79%
VA (Tim Kaine) Chance of winning:\t 77%
CT: (Chris Murphy) Chance of winning:\t72%
WI: (Tammy Baldwin) Chance of winning: 82%
- Go, go, Ohio! I am thrilled with that poll. As long as we have that state going in our direction, we should be good for re-election.
I can't imagine a scenario where Obama loses Ohio but Romney wins Iowa or Nevada, for example. As long as we keep Ohio and Wisconsin in our direction, all we need to pick up is Nevada or Iowa to get to the magic 270.
I have to admit that I was very depressed the past few days with all the polls going in Romney's direction, but the numbers look to slowly be going back the president's way now.
- Wow, I also just saw the poll in Arizona. Those numbers are shocking and reveal why there was a story a few weeks ago saying that Obama was considering playing for the state.
The internals are a little troubling, though. Just 4% of Republicans admit that they aren't going to vote whereas 11% of liberals, 15% of Dems, 16% of moderates, and 24% of Latinos say they are going to sit it out. The latter two demographics heavily skew Obama's way and are just unfortunate lost votes.
Being a politics junkie, I'll never understand why people say they won't vote. How long does the process take -- a few minutes at the very most?
- [quote]The only people who went for Romney after the debate were the really DUMB voters who was paying no attention to the election for the past several months.
That's the electorate, hun.
- [quote]Should Romney win, he won't be able to pass his right-wing agenda with a Democratic controlled Senate. That means no repeal of Obamacare, or big changes to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. He also won't be able to appoint severely conservative justices to the Supreme Court. It helps that most of the Blue Dog Democratic senators have retired and could be replaced with the likes of Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin.
Romney will get 4 lifetime Supreme Court appointments. It's all over after that. A full Right wing court. You better pray that Romney and the LDS doesn't step foot inside the White House. Everyone will be forced to move, not out of disgust, but for their survival.
- OHIO - SENATE [Brown +7]
Public Policy Polling
Brown (D) 49
Mandel (R) 42
- Chris Murphy in CT wiped the floor with Linda McMahon during their debate last week. I think his odds are very good right now. He needs our donations, though.
- I just donated to Chris Murphy today. Along with Elizabth Warren, Carmona, Allen West's, Eric Cantor's and Paul Ryan's opponents.
- Romney is a moderate so kindly fuck off r519. He is running more conservative now because he has to.
- R523, just how gullible and ignorant are you?
- R523 - Mitt is anything you want him to be. He has no core. But the problem is that he will likely govern hard right given the nature of the national GOP and his advisors.
- As Grover Norquest said, Romney will be his puppet... he'll sign what they tell him to.
- [quote]Romney is a moderate
And your evidence for this is what, exactly?
[quote]so kindly fuck off [R519].
I suggest you take your own advice.
[quote]He is running more conservative now because he has to.
No, actually, he doesn't. Personally, I take a candidate at his word. If he is running as a hard-right conservative and pushing hard-right conservative policies, then I assume that's precisely how he will run the country. And those policies he's pushing will be disastrous.
- r501 - if Romney has a 51 - 45 advantage with people who have NOT voted yet, that doesn't sound good. Why is this considered a good thing? I know Obama is leading big with those that have voted but it is scary that so many Romney supports seem to have not voted yet but still will.
- [quote]Romney is a moderate so kindly fuck off [R519]. He is running more conservative now because he has to.
Why YES, R523 ... He HAS to. Those are your own words. Can you get that? Do you get the implications (and history) of what that means??
The corporations who have purchased his candidacy will mandate what he does or does not do. He will owe them the presidency. He will have little or no say in the policies of his administration. It's all part of the purchased price.
It doesn't matter what he personally may believe (or not, based on his record), he will be entirely beholden to the paid contracts.
You are voting to elect an ultra, ultra, ultra right-wing administration, no matter what moderate fairy tale you have been sold.
- It's simple math, r528. Romney would have to beat Obama by 12% with the rest of the vote in order to overcome Obama's lead.
So instead of leading 51% to 45%, Romney would have to win by more than 56% to 44% with the remaining vote. That's not going to happen.
- Thanks r530. I can't get my brain around the math. I am not the Poll Troll or anyone else who really understands this.
So thanks! I hope you are right!
- Obama Builds N.M. Lead Over Romney
By Michael Coleman / Journal Washington Bureau on Sun, Oct 14, 2012
President Barack Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney by 10 points in the race for New Mexico’s five electoral votes, with about three weeks remaining before Election Day, the Journal Poll found.
The Democratic president had 49 percent support in the statewide survey of likely voters, and some who had already voted, compared with 39 percent of voters who said they preferred Romney.
Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee for president, had 6 percent support in the survey. Five percent of New Mexico voters were undecided....
- R530, Actually, what the math comes out to is an overall 51% to 49% advantage for Obama. That is very close. And since these numbers come from pols, not actual vote counts, it is with the margin of error. Certainly, it's good news, but it is not a done deal.
Everyone has to vote. I think the Rethugs hope that if the polls get close, the Dems will get discouraged and just not bother to vote, thereby insuring the Rethugs victory.
- NEW MEXICO - PRESIDENT [Obama +10]
ABQ Journal poll
Obama - 49
Romney - 39
Johnson - 6
Undecided - 5
- [quote]The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll
October 13 [Obama + 3.76]
Obama - 49.1%
Romney - 45.34%
- CNN's fake V.P. Debate Poll explained in one graphic:
- Thanks for that graphic, Poll Troll, and all of your informative posts.
- Thanks, R537.
Someone else made that graphic, so I have to give them credit, but I thought it was a good way of explaining the conflicting network VP debate polls.
- [quote]Huffington Post Moves OHIO from Toss Up To Leaning Obama
- Obama will choke again on Tuesday and will go down again in the polls.
- Love when freepers act like drunken frat boys predicting their football team's victory with an election. It just reinforces what idiots they really are.
- R536, An apology after the fact near useless in this situation. I'm beginning to wonder how much is deliberate and how much is just incompetence.
- [quote]Personally, I take a candidate at his word.
With Romney, which word on which day is your guide?
- Regarding the CNN post-VP debate polling acknowledgement that they oversampled Republicans, is there such a link by CNN other than the graphic provided. I'd like to use it to post as a link but I wanted something that came from them directly.
- The CNN apology looks fake. There is nothing about it on their website.
- URL to the cnn correction. That is just disturbing that they would wait that long to correct the matter. They are officially Fox News 2.0 in my book.
- North Carolina's Winston Salem Journal just endorsed President Obama for a second term.
This is a big deal since they endorsed McCain in 2008. Their take on Romney is that he's consistently inconsistent and therefore untrustworthy.
- Nebraska's Lincoln Star Journal just endorsed Obama! Nebraska! That's a very Republican area.
Looks like the newspaper endorsements are leaning towards the President.
- R546 I'll be writing them; hope I'm not alone.
- Fantastic news, R547!
- I think I will be writing them as well. I am deeply disturbed by their recent shift toward irresponsibility in favor of slanted presentation.
- Great news again, R548!
- From Brazil
I'm following the american election and today Hugs shows early voters poll;
Did you trust in your press??
Here in Brazil we learn long ago not to trust.Back in 1989 the polls showed the press favorite, way a head in the polls.But wasn't true and Brisola, the socialist candidate won by 60%.
- Romney will fuck up, sure, but the mainstream media is covering his fuck ups differently then they did earlier in the campaign. The fact that he's gotten away with not giving out his income tax returns, or that he'll give more tax cuts to rich people, and increase taxes for the rest of us, or that he has no jobs plan, or that he'll decimate what's left of our safety net and pass on those costs to state & local government, which will then cause them to either chose to lay off even more police,or first responders and teachers or raise taxes? The media isn't covering that.
The media would rather dwell on bullshit like Joe Biden smiling too much. The fact Ryan had no specifics, or refused to answer questions, is barely acknowledged, yet we hear ad nauseam that Obama had a terrible, career defining 90 minutes in a debate that completely erased four years of solid progress and achievements.
Can you believe that we are going to let the man who killed Osama Bin Laden, saved the automobile industry, and initiated massive healthcare reform lose a fucking election because the media is not covering it?
The fucking media. We need to raise hell with all the networks, and with specific network people about Romney/Ryan. We need to do it daily. We need to be confrontational. Why? Because it is in our interests. We need to go all Tea Party on their asses!
There have been some incredible lies in this campaign. They have been brazen with their dishonesty. But the biggest offenders are the media who permit it, who never ask a fucking follow up question, or confront them. We need to really fight this, not sit here worrying.
- Obama slipped through in 2008--media moguls didn't see it coming. Now, they're better prepared.
It's infuriating, but all each of us can do is fight in whatever manner we can.
Volunteer and donate. Or get what you deserve.
- I like the fact that Team Obama has already banked a considerable amount of votes. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush.
- Unless the two in the bush are the like the two Bushes.
- RCP average of all recent polls has MR up by 1.3
- Today's right leaning IBD/TIPP poll has:
Obama 47% vs. Romney 46%
- It's odd that that poll of all of the national polls currently is most favorable to Obama.
Fortunately some of the swing state polls are also more favorable.
- Ohio is going to Obama.
I just wish he could sew up Florida; I would sleep so much better.
- SUNDAY OCTOBER 14
Gallup Tracking [Romney +2]
Romney - 49
Obama - 47
Rasmussen Tracking\t [Romney +2]
Romney - 49
Obama - 47
IBD/TIPP Tracking [Obama +1]
Obama - 47
Romney - 46
- GEORGIA - PRESIDENT [Romney +8]
Romney - 51
Obama - 43
(Previous Georgia poll had Romney at (+21). Hard to say what that means.)
- NEW HAMPSHIRE - GOVERNOR [Hassan +2]
Hassan (D) - 48\t
Lamontagne (R) - 46
Sunday, October 14, 2012
Democrat Maggie Hassan now edges Republican Ovide Lamontagne in New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Granite State finds Hassan earning 48% of the vote, while Lamontagne receives 46% support. Six percent (6%) are still undecided.
- CNN is picking up on the close AZ race. It could change the media narrative if Obama is seen as expanding the electoral map.
- What are they saying, R565? I haven't watched CNN this weekend.
I'm still angry with them for faking the VP Debate poll.
- COLORADO - PRESIDENT [Obama +2]
Obama - 48
Romney - 46
Following the debates, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm conducted a survey of 2,089 likely voters in Colorado on October 5th– October 11th regarding their likely vote for a given presidential candidate. The poll carries a margin of error of 2.2%.
The recent results give Obama a 48.4% to 46.0% lead, with 5.6% of likely voters still undecided or voting for another candidate. The 2.6% Obama lead is a 2.1% decline from where it stood in September. Gravis Marketing conducted a previous poll this month right after the first debate, which gave Romney a 49.4% to 45.9% advantage.
- Gravis Marketing is a Republican polling firm, so it's telling that they're showing Obama up by 2 in CO. And a 6-point swing towards Obama since their last poll.
- Yes, Gravis is Republican, R568, and I believe it's a 5-point swing to be precise (Romney was +3 in CO last week), but it's still a big swing.
Only caveat: you never know whether Gravis is messing with the numbers when they show Obama is up. But one can overanalyze these things, I suppose.
- How good is the Obama GOTV effort in CO?
- Democrats should have an advantage in CO in terms of the ground operation because they currently hold both the Governorship and both U.S. Senate seats.
Obama won CO by 9 points in 2008, so they should still have a good GOTV structure in place. Latino turnout will also be key.
What's interesting is that Romney lost CO in the primaries to Santorum.
Will be interesting to see whether he can win it in the General.
- I live in Texas and just had an Obama GOTV guy come to our door (in a gated condo complex). I was pleasantly surprised.
- Was he hot, R572?
- "RCP average of all recent polls has MR up by 1.3" - R558, based on registered voters or likely voters? If LV, then I'm not too worried. If RV, then that's a concern.
- New Reuters poll today has Obama up +1 nationally today. That's three daily trackers having the President take the lead today.
- Ipsos/Reuters poll [Obama +1]
Obama - 46%
Romney - 45%
A Reuters/Ipsos daily online tracking poll on Sunday showed Obama leading Romney by 1 percentage point, 46 to 45, down from a 3-point Romney lead last Thursday - a possible sign that the Republican's surge after the first debate could be running out of steam.
- Do you think Romney peaked too soon? If Obama does better in the last 2 debates(and how could he do any worse), then the momentum could shift in his direction.
One thing is for certain, the next two debate moderators aren't going to let Romney get off as easily as Lehrer did in the first debate.
The way that Democratic Senate candidates are pulling ahead across the board tells me that voters are responding to the Democratic message. I think voters are ready to support Obama, but they want to see him defend his record and lay out a path for the future.
- Not bad...mid-40s. Looked like he had a nice body.
- I'm very interested in seeing how the President reacts to Romney in the second debate...if he comes out swinging, he'll be seen as an angry black man; if he lays back and plays rope-a-dope like he did before, he's "lazy" and "doesn't want it."
I hope he's smart enough to ride right over the typecasting of the right.
- (I've also noticed it really bugs Republicans when I refer to "The President").
- [quote] I'm very interested in seeing how the President reacts to Romney in the second debate...if he comes out swinging, he'll be seen as an angry black man; if he lays back and plays rope-a-dope like he did before, he's "lazy" and "doesn't want it."
He's caught in the grips of a couple of double-binds.
At this point I don't think he has a choice. He's going to have to risk the "angry black man" accusations, because being seen as passive was clearly devastating to his campaign.
- So now it looks like President Romney enters the White House in 2013? How did everything go so wrong? I thought Biden would have saved the campaign. Everyone talks like the race is over, and Romney won. I'm hearing this from Democrats all over the place. WTF happened? Are people still asschapped over that first debate?! There's two more people.
There seems to be this blowback against Biden during the debate now. I've never seen such a fickle country.
- Newsmax/Zogby Poll [Obama +3]
Obama - 47%
Romney - 44%
[quote]Brand New Nationwide Poll: Obama 47%, Romney 44%
10/14/2012 @ 7:31 PM
A NewsmaxZogby Poll of 863 likely voters taken on Friday and Saturday show President Barack Obama in a dead heat with GOP challenger Governor Mitt Romney – Obama 47% to Romney 44%. Nine percent are undecided. The nationwide online poll has a margin of error of +/-3.4 points.
The joint venture between the Florida-based publisher and the New York State-based pollster will feature tracking polls in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and nationally right up to Election Day.
The President continues to poll solidly among Democrats (88%-7%), Hispanics (62%-30%), African Americans (95%-1%), women (51@%), Catholics (53%-42%), liberals (91%-5%), and moderates (56%-29%).
Mr. Romney is doing very well among Republicans (86%-9%), voters over 65 (58%-35%), men (49%-43%), evangelicals (62%-28%), married voters (50%-40%), conservatives (77%-18%), and investors (56%-39%). He has opened up a lead among weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers (50%-39%).
The President still needs to worry about reduced support among young voters. While he leads by 22 points (58%-36%), that is well below his 66%-30% victory in 2008. His meager lead of 49% to 45% among the very important Creative Class can also hurt him. Economist and author Richard Florida has identified the economic and social importance of these knowledge sector leaders. Their support for Mr. Obama in 2008 was crucial in such states as Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Colorado – helping to turn those previously red states into blue states.
Only 43% feel the President deserves to be re-elected, while 49% say “it is time for someone new”. This sentiment was tied prior to the first Presidential debate.
For his part, Mr. Romney needs to be concerned about his lead among white voters. He does lead 53% to 37%, but Senator John McCain got 57% of the white vote and lost in 2008. In that election, whites represented 74% of the total vote, a share that could be reduced by a few points this November. He is also still not connecting with NASCAR fans as the President still leads the former Governor by five points, 48%-44%.
The new poll not only shows Vice President Joe Biden receiving slightly higher grades for his debate performance on Thursday night: 49% scored his debate performance as A and B (18% A, 31% B), 19% C, and 27% as D and F (13% D, 14% F). Congressman Ryan got an A and B score of 46% (13% A, 33% B), 30% C, but a lower combined D and F of 17% (9% D, 8% F).
- R581 - He can be aggressive, if he does so in a humorous and even sarcastic way. I don't think Obama can be as in your face as Biden, but he could and should take the Bill Clinton approach.
- I just can't believe that among white voters Romney has such a lead. That only a minority of white voters are voting for Obama...that just says so much about our country.
- The next debate is a town hall format, so the candidates will be answering questions from audience members. There should be less back-and-forth between Obama and Romney in this setting. I think it'll be good for Obama because he can spend more time laying out his plan for the future and less time playing defense against Romney's attacks.
- R582 - "So now it looks like President Romney enters the White House in 2013?"
Actually, it is at worse a dead heat, and Obama probably has a slight edge. Based on Nate's model, Obama's chances are in the low 60s, and actually improved slightly in the last day or two. It's going to take time for the post Biden debate polls to filter in. At worst, Biden stopped the loses. He may well have reversed the trend.
- Interesting that crazy, right-wing NewsMax has Obama in the lead.
- I have such a hard time believing, when the two candidates have such different views, that the polls can show such a tight race.
- 2012 Poll Troll, who do you think is going to win?
- R590, that's a complicated question and is still a bit up in the air, but the odds are still with Obama at this point.
I believe Nate Silver has Obama at a 63% chance of winning tonight. It went up slightly from yesterday.
- [quote] I just can't believe that among white voters Romney has such a lead. That only a minority of white voters are voting for Obama...that just says so much about our country.
It's always this way. White voters always go for the Republican. If it were up to white voters only, we even would have elected Dole in 1996. If it weren't for minorities, the Democratic Party would basically shrivel up and die.
- [quote]if he comes out swinging, he'll be seen as an angry black man; if he lays back and plays rope-a-dope like he did before, he's "lazy" and "doesn't want it."
I agree with the approach advanced by R584. As the President refutes Rmoney's lies, he can verbally stick the knife in and twist it, all the while keeping a smile on his face -- like he is actually enjoying this. And, yes, Bill Clinton is a master at this. But, I would hope that they have been prepping President Obama over the last two weeks to do precisely that.
- Obama has said, repeatedly, that America needs to be more like Europe.
Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan made the case that America needs to return to being America.
Now Americans want to take our country back! That's why The One and his campaign are in panicked collapse.
Sorry Democrats, the adults are going to be back in charge in January. :)
- Didn't peg die of lung cancer in 2009? Nice try.
- NATE SILVER'S CURRENT PROJECTIONS:
Chance of winning\tO (50%)\tR (50%)
Chance of winning O (33%)\tR (67%)
Chance of winning\tO (58%)\tR (42%)
Chance of winning\tO (13%)\tR (87%)
Chance of winning\tO (68%)\tR (32%)
Chance of winning\tO (61%)\tR (39%)
Chance of winning O (67%)\tR (33%)
Chance of winning O (48%)\tR (52%)
Chance of winning\tO (77%)\tR (23%)
Maine CD-2 District 2
Chance of winning\tO (86%)\tR (14%)
- R594/peg = delusional moron.
Almost nothing in that post is true.
- "Obama has said, repeatedly, that America needs to be more like Europe."
R594 - Where has Obama said this? Actually, it's Romney/Ryan who are advocating European style austerity. It hasn't worked in Europe, and it wouldn't work here.
- Not even four years of Obama Socialism could kill me, R598 :)
- Peg was a satirical conservative troll that would post on threads. Apparently there was a real Peg but I always thought she was like Cheryl and M.
- That's hard to say, given that there hasn't been any "socialism", Obama's or anyone else's (given he's not a socialist, but a moderate corporatist centrist).
- So with 67 pct or better Obama has 269 (a tie). Add Nevada at 61 pct and he is at 275. Iowa at 58 pct and 281.