October 5, 2012, 8:36 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON—The U.S. unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in more than 3½ years in September as the economy continued to add jobs, a potential boost for President Barack Obama's campaign to win a second term.
The politically important unemployment rate fell to 7.8% last month from 8.1% in August. That was the lowest level since January 2009.
U.S. payrolls, obtained in a separate survey of employers, increased by a seasonally adjusted 114,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said Friday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a gain of 118,000 in payrolls and an 8.1% jobless rate.
Friday's report is the first since the Federal Reserve's decision to commence an ambitious stimulus program—buying $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities until the U.S. job market substantially improves. The latest numbers offer some good news with the falling unemployment rate but also suggests that job creation, while steady, remains slower than the Fed would like.
The figures are also the next-to-last snapshot of the labor market before the November election. October's employment numbers are due out only four days ahead of the vote—possibly too late to sway many ballots.
"The September jobs report will frame the economic debate and could prove critical to the election outcome," Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said ahead of Friday's release.
BREAKING NEWS: Republicans are spontaneously exploding throughtout the nations.....
Only in our charged, polarized political climate would a 7.8% unemployment rate be somehow celebrated as good news.
I loath both candidates. You guys do realize we're still at historically high unemployment, right? Obama hasn't made it any (or much) better in four fucking years. Romney likely wouldn't either.
Fuck them both and shame on you all for being so blind with personal politics that you'd cheer this as good news.
r3, this is a board for people who support our President. You are not welcome here.
I have been uncomfortable making predictions up until now and have cautioned against Democrats getting overconfident and assuming Obama will win, but now I am prepared to predict for the first time that I think Obama will be re-elected.
I doubt R3 is welcome anywhere.
Unemployment goes down at a dramatic rate and we're blind for being happy about it? The President who gets credit for the improvement is an advocate for equality for gay people but we're not supposed to cheer for him?
Hot damn, this is great news!
On CNBC they're screaming fraud and claiming the numbers were manipulated. Not a bit of evidence to back that up, but since when do facts matter?
Jack Welch is already out with a statement accusing the 'guys in Chicago' of fixing the unemployment rate to get Obama re-elected.
The right-wing must be FURIOUS.
[quote] this is a board for people who support our President.
R5, sweety? Did you make the Webmaster aware of this? Oh, and I've been here EONS before you, trust me there.
Back to your mommy blogs, twat. If the truth hurts so much, you have no business here.
Does it really matter how long we've each been here?
I've been here since 2003.
Excellent. Curious how republicans will put a negative spin on it.
Unfortunately the rate excludes people who have stopped looking for a job. Also does not recognize the people part time employed at WalMart et al who used to have middle class jobs 45k+. Inner city "real" unemployment of 18 to 25 yr olds is over 28%. Food stamp users up 50%' and disability close.
No one is saying the numbers are manipulated but one must understand how the number is calculated.
The jobs birthers are all saying these numbers were manipulated to help Obama after his disasterous debate performance. I am woefully ignorant about these jobs reports. Is it even possible to manipulate the numbers?
Check back in three weeks as they try to quietly revise the numbers.
Also be sure to check how many new L-1 and H1-B visas have been issued.
More than 480,000 people were newly employed over July and August than were originally reported.
The unemployment rate is now lower than when President Obama took office.
Consumer confidence has been improving dramatically over the past two months but there was no clear indication why. The big shift in unemployment explains it.
Wow, what great timing! 7.8! Yay!
Web master is not allowing replies that do not support BO
No R12, it doesn't, and I happen to like your threads. But R5 is one of those likely newbies who spew absurd bullshit like she does and needed to be put in check. But no, it really doesn't matter how long we've been here.
Yep, and nearly half of swing state voters who will vote in this election will have voted in October this year. This is the report that will effect the election most of all, and it is great news for Obama because 8.0 percent has been widely cited as the number he needed to get the unemployment rate down to to have a good chance at reelection.
The unemployment picture is still pretty bad. No one can deny that. But it is fantastic news that the rate is under 8%. That kills the talking point that no President with that high can be re-elected (exception FDR).
Repubs will be ready to explode with anger and conspiracy theories.
Like 7.8 is so great? In what world?
Great, r19. The Webmaster realizes this election is too important to allow rightwing trolls to spew propaganda that is against the political interests of the gay community and its allies. ANyone voting against Barack OBama is an enemy of the gay community.
No, R15. In fact, Austan Goolsbee just ripped Jack Welch a new one a few minutes ago for suggesting that.
And many other economists are doing the same.
[quote] The big shift in unemployment'
Talk about hyperbole.
And yet when it was above 8.0%, all you b-o-t-s were insisting the president has nothing to do with the unemployment rate.
It is a big shift downwards in unemployment, r26. That's why it's headline news.
Do we still have a far way to go? Absolutely. Are things improving? Absolutely.
Very good news.
From economist Justin Wolfers:
[quote]Fact for truthers: There are currently ZERO political appointees at the BLS. (Congress is yet to confirm Obama's nominee for commissioner.)
The U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons." Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over
Spet 2012 U6 number is 14.7%. And we celebrate!
Get a clue. Understand what is really going on because it will greatly impact your life at some point.
[quote]Labor force grew by 418K, so the drop in the unemployment rate was not due to people giving up on looking for work
R31, you just know the right will still tell that lie, though.
Stock futures and Treasury yields advanced as investors bet an improving job market will give workers with the wherewithal to boost their spending, helping cushion the economy from a global slowdown.
[quote]PollTroll, I always check in with your threads. Thank you for being here.
Thank-you! : )
Now that the big news of the morning has come out, I'm probably going to go to bed and be back later, but I just posted today's Rasmussen poll which has some surprisingly bad news for Romney - Obama STILL has a +2 lead. He hasn't gone down. He still could when some of the other post-debating polling comes in, but that may now be offset by the 7.8% good news.
In this one, r23. Join us here.
If the president could easily manipulate the Unemployment Rate, then he would have done it well before now.
GWB would have, too.
In fact, why even bother reporting it? If it's so easily manipulated for political purposes?
Face it, freeps: President Obama is getting things done. In fact, he may even go down in history as one of our all-time greatest presidents.
If Mitt Romney wins, it will be a very sad day in America -- because one of our greatest presidents lost because of racism.
There's no reason to fire any guy who is this successful.
The only reasons to fire our first black president who is this successful are hatred, bigotry & ignorance.
R3 - keep reminding yourself how that unemployment rate go so high in the first place, and who's actually making it better.
We are all smart enough to know that the news could be better. However, this is good news in a non-partisan way because it increases confidence. And in a partisan way because the Republicans have sent 8% as a meaningless benchmark throughout this election and just like that Obama is under it.
Now for the Etch-A-Sketch Mittens.
When the 114,000 September jobs are added to the (restated/adjusted) 46,000 August jobs and (restated/adjusted) 40,000 July jobs, we get 200,000 more jobs than previously reported.
It's always essential to comprehend what the statistics are describing. Without that fundamental comprehension, then the narrow parroting of cherry-picked numbers is deceitful.
But RAZ claims that today's poll only reflects one day of post-debate polling, and post-debate poll shows "some improvement" for Romney. However, the new job reports is today's headline, not the debate.
I hope Mitt enjoyed yesterday, because these job numbers are very bad news for him. Very bad news.
Crazy old man weighs in:
[quote]Jack Welch @jack_welch Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers
[quote]September jobs report: Unemployment rate tumbles
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Friday's monthly jobs report changed the picture of the U.S. economy in more ways than one, showing the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in more than three years and hiring was stronger than originally reported throughout the summer.
Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 7.8% in September, down from 8.1%, as a survey of U.S. households showed 873,000 more Americans had jobs compared to a month earlier.
The last time the unemployment rate was that low was in January 2009, the month President Obama was inaugurated.
The biggest gains came in the form of 582,000 new part-time jobs. Workers with less than a high school degree saw their unemployment rate fall the most dramatically, to 11.3% from 12% in August, whereas workers with a bachelors' degree or higher continued to have a 4.1% unemployment rate for the fourth month in a row.
A separate survey of employers, considered the key metric that Wall Street watches, showed businesses added 114,000 jobs in September. It marked a slowdown in hiring, after July and August were revised significantly higher.
Those revisions added 86,000 more jobs than originally reported in the summer. Stocks rose in morning trading.
Ever since the financial crisis, the monthly jobs report has been the most intensely watched economic metric, but in election season, attention surrounding the numbers has reached new heights.
The naysayers on this thread and the "cooked the books" right wing pundits are slimeballs.
For those worried about the U6 unemplyment rate, there's a couple of things you're not considering - employers see the unemployment rate go down, they think the economy is improving, and they hire, and average people with jobs see the lower rate, and turn loose of some money, thinking they're going to be able to keep their job. Also, Christmas is coming, people may think the economy in general is recovering and spend some Christmas bucks.
Also, Obama is actually doing something about getting manufacturing going back in the U.S. That's going to do more to create jobs, raise wages and hours in the U.S. than anything else, but it will take time.
For those that think Obama hasn't worked fast enough, he's created 5 million jobs in less than four years, more than Bush did in eight. When he took office, we were losing 750,000 jobs a month. It took time to dig out of that hole. From the statisical point of view, 750,000 jobs a month don't just magically reappear to fill the hole. They were gone and had to be created from scratch. Business went bankrupt and new businesses had to be created.
Two years ago, I used to drive down the street and see entire strip malls almost completely abandoned, anchor stores empty and the few stores left with no customers, slowly going broke. You can actually see the progress. Those same malls are now full of open stores and the parking lot is full too. New businesses had to take their place. It took a while to dig out. Now, we have to build up.
Las Vegas, highest unemployment rate, but getting better even here.
But I'm sure you know what a Snookie is, R47.
[quote]Solid Jobs Report Spawns Crackpot ‘Job Truthers’ Movement
[quote]He had some friends in Congress too. Rep. Allen West (R-FL) tweeted “I agree with former GE CEO Jack Welch, Chicago style politics is at work here.”
r50, have you ever heard the phrase "you spot it, you got it?"
Because that's how I feel about the republicans.
Everything they accuse others of doing they are themselves doing.
Case in point: voter fraud.
They are saying Obama cooked the books because that is exactly what they would do if given the chance.
That's exactly how they got GWB in office.
[quote]Unemployment Rate Trutherism, and Why It Exists
Don't let the Republicans deflect and distract--(even though I think most people have caught on to their games by now).
This is great news for the president!
Spread the word.
Obama hit 50% approval rating.
We’ve hit that moment in the election when people begin to lose their minds. Case in point, within minutes of the jobs report, Twitter filled with Republicans claiming the books were somehow cooked, the numbers aren’t real, etc.
Let’s take a deep breath. Jobs reports are about the economy, not about the election. Confusing the two leads to very bad analysis.
This is a good jobs report in a still-weak economy. The 114,000 jobs we added in September aren’t very impressive. The revisions to the last two months, which added 86,000 jobs to the total, were much more impressive. Those revisions also suggest that September’s jobs could get revised up — or, of course, down. So be careful about reading too much into that number. Still, these are, at best, good, not great, numbers.
The controversy, if it’s worth using that word, is over the unemployment rate, which dropped from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent. That’s three-tenths of one percent. That’s what all the fuss is about.
Let’s get one thing out of the way: The data was not, as Jack Welch suggested in a now-infamous tweet, manipulated. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set up to ensure the White House has no ability to influence it. As labor economist Betsey Stevenson wrote, “anyone who thinks that political folks can manipulate the unemployment data are completely ignorant of how the BLS works and how the data are compiled.” Plus, if the White House somehow was manipulating the data, don’t you think they would have made the payroll number look a bit better than 114,000? No one would have batted an eye at 160,000.
The fact is that there’s not much that needs to be explained here. We’ve seen drops like this — and even drops bigger than this — before. Between July and August the unemployment rate dropped from 8.3 percent to 8.1 percent — two-tenths of one percent. November-December of 2011 also saw a .2 percent drop. November-December of 2010 saw a .4 percent drop. This isn’t some incredible aberration. The fact that the unemployment rate broke under the psychologically important 8 percent line is making this number feel bigger to people than it really is.
The number could, of course, be wrong. The household survey is, well, a survey, which means it’s open to error. But the internals back it up. The number saying they had jobs increased by about 800,000. That seems high, but it’s counting 582,000 who say they got part-time jobs.
There’s precedent for this. As Daniel Indiviglio notes, part-time jobs increased by 579,000 in September 2010 and by 483,000 in September 2011. It might simply be seasonal hiring. You don’t need to resort to ridiculous theories like Democrats across the country suddenly deciding to lie to surveytakers in order to help Obama.
Which leads to another argument: That U6, the broadest measure of labor-market pain, didn’t move, which should make us skeptical of the fact that U3, the normal unemployment rate, did move. That’s just misunderstanding what U6 is.
U6 is not an unemployment measure. It includes part-time workers who want full-time work. So it doesn’t count the increase in part-time work. But every measure of actual unemployment — U1, U2, U3, U4, and U5 — went down. You can see them all here. Again, there’s no mystery.
This is an encouraging report. What it tells us is that the labor market has been a bit better over the last few months than we thought, and that the recovery hasn’t slowed in the ways we feared. What the response to it tells us is that the election is driving people a little bit crazy.
Jim Cramer: "I have people calling for my job" because I said I believe the BLS numbers
Wow. They have truly lost their minds.
Plus, I love how this is now the story DOMINATING the news sites, rather than "Mitt won the first debate."
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!
CNN headline: 'Unemployment rate tumbles'
Interestingly enough, Rick Santelli on CNBC (usually one of the most vocal tea party style ranters), just did a little piece comparing today's unemployment numbers with Canada's.
The trend line is almost exactly the same and has been for months. No surprise given how closely the two economies are linked.
Ask the freepers how Obama managed to game Canada's numbers.
Most "swing voters" won't stay tuned-in to listen to the discourse and analysis about the numbers. They just need to hear the main point--unemployment is declining; the economy is improving.
Why the hell would you celebrate a massive increase in part time jobs, falling wages, and the lowest rate of workers since the Depression?
At what point do you do the right thing put politics aside and accept we are getting screwed over by both sides?!
Re: Canada --
Canada’s Housing Bubble Set to Burst
by MIKE WHITNEY
Canada’s housing bubble is about to burst, and when it does, hundreds of billions of dollars in equity will be wiped out, unemployment will spike, and the economy will sink into a protracted slump. We know this will happen, because the same scenario unfolded in the US, Japan, Ireland and Spain. Housing bubbles always end badly.
Housing prices in Canada have more than doubled in the last 10 years while wages have remained relatively flat. That tells us that the soaring prices are not based on fundamentals, but on low interest rates, lax lending standards and speculation. What’s really driving prices is debt, that is, mortgages preferred to people who, many times, will not be able to repay their loans. As the number of defaults rises, banks will fail, housing prices will tumble, and economic activity will slow to a crawl. It’s the same everywhere.
I don't know what Repugs are bitching about. During W.'s first term when you used up all your unemployment benefit you just fell off the rolls, you no longer existed. Obama didn't create that formula.
What's annoying about conservatives is that they have such short, selective memories.
Does the unemployment rate reflect the state of employment for people both willing and able to work only? There are plenty of lazy bastards out there who WON'T work. And then there are those who are rich enough to not need a job, except for 'chairing' different foundations.
[quote]At what point do you do the right thing put politics aside and accept we are getting screwed over by both sides?!
When that actually happens. Right now, it's only happening on the Republican side.
Love this and Obama is fired up again too.
More good news:
Federal court upholds Ohio early voting ruling
(CNN) - A federal appeals court on Friday sided with the Obama campaign and Democrats in their lawsuit against Ohio over a restriction the state had placed on early voting.
Judges Eric L. Clay and Joseph M. Hood ruled 2 to 1 for the U.S. 6th Circuit Court of Appeals, upholding a late August injunction preventing the state from restricting many voters from casting ballots on the final weekend before November's election.
How was your One Good Day, Mitty? Your party's over.
So will Miss Fatass ask Romney about this during the town hall debate?
So is this the October surprise?
It must be true, there were new additional workers at my local Walgreen's, Rite Aid and Costco, I guess more part time workers must have been hired.
I'm an Obama supporter, but the sheer fact is, unfortunately, retail hiring and cashier jobs, are the types of crappy jobs being created, minimum wage and maybe a bit above minimum wage jobs. People can't support themselves on these types of jobs.
Especially not in NYC.
I know a woman who has been able to live on her retail salary, she was lucky to get an apartment in one of those 60-40 residences, a new building where 60% of the tenants pay market rents and the other 40% pay much lower rents.
If she hadn't been on a waiting list for many years, she'd be a middle aged woman with one or two roommates in a small cramped Manhattan apartment. This is no way for any single adult to live, with a roommate well into middle age.
Real jobs must be created, not retail and cashier jobs!
The high tech jobs being created are not being filled because lots of people can't do those sorts of jobs. Look at what most people major in in college, they are setting themselves up for failure.
The bottom line is, we have to stop giving enormous tax breaks to companies which continue to off shore real jobs. Nearly every item I've bought recently has been made in a foreign country, from a lamp to a pair of pants, and that is not good news for Americans who are still out of work and want much more than to stand behind a cash register the rest of their lives!
Don't we have many unemployed nurses and engineers on this board? What about the Harvard guy that was unemployed?
What about all the post-50 people with credentials out the wahoo who are unemployed?
Throwing unemployed people off of the unemployment rolls and stopping their financial aid doesn't mean they magically have jobs all of a sudden. The real unemployment rate, not counting retirees, is closer to 30% of the population.
R84 presents such credible data for his assertions, we must all believe him.
Do you watch anything besides Hannity, R84?
The jobs number holds as real job acquisition, not those who have given up or those not getting "financial aid."
And you are celebrating this.. why exactly? We've had an unemployment rate at around 3 % for the last five years. We never even felt the financial crisis.
I think you need to speak for yourself, R87.
R86 is a complete moron who has the the black and white reasoning of a 3 year old or an AA member.
R85, ok, you add up all the millions of people who have been kicked off the rolls over the last 6 years and still haven't found work, have been hired and let go again and all the independent contractors who have never even qualified for unemployment while no one has been willing or able to hire them for the last X number of years because we're in s fucking depression and all the young people aged 14-26 who couldn't get on the rolls because they can't even get hired for their first job to get laid off from and all the older people 40 and up who retired early because were laid off and knew there wasn't a chance in hell they'd get hired anywhere and get back to us. You really think that many people add up to less than 30% of elligible workers? Have you ever taken a math class?
Stop projecting, R89.
Krugman is right, if the GOP weren't such vile assholes, the unemployment rate would be even lower by now:
[italic]But isn’t that just because people have given up looking for work, and hence no longer count as unemployed? Actually, no. It’s true that the employment-population ratio — the percentage of adults with jobs — has been more or less flat for the past year. But remember those aging baby boomers: the fraction of American adults who are in their prime working years is falling fast. Once you take the effects of an aging population into account, the numbers show a substantial improvement in the employment picture since the summer of 2011.
None of this should be taken to imply that the situation is good, or to deny that we should be doing better — a shortfall largely due to the scorched-earth tactics of Republicans, who have blocked any and all efforts to accelerate the pace of recovery. (If the American Jobs Act, proposed by the Obama administration last year, had been passed, the unemployment rate would probably be below 7 percent.) The U.S. economy is still far short of where it should be, and the job market has a long way to go before it makes up the ground lost in the Great Recession. But the employment data do suggest an economy that is slowly healing, an economy in which declining consumer debt burdens and a housing revival have finally put us on the road back to full employment.
And that’s the truth that the right can’t handle. The furor over Friday’s report revealed a political movement that is rooting for American failure, so obsessed with taking down Mr. Obama that good news for the nation’s long-suffering workers drives its members into a blind rage. It also revealed a movement that lives in an intellectual bubble, dealing with uncomfortable reality — whether that reality involves polls or economic data — not just by denying the facts, but by spinning wild conspiracy theories.
It is, quite simply, frightening to think that a movement this deranged wields so much political power.[/italic]
Instant View: Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest in Four and a Half Years
Published: October 11, 2012 at 8:46 AM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week to the lowest level in more than four and a half years, according government data on Thursday that suggested improvement in the labor market.
"This is a positive signal for the economy. The overall trend seems to be that the labor market is improving."
"This is a lot better-than-expected. It's a number that is somewhat of a surprise and the market is going to react positively. It shows the trend that the labor market is slightly improving."
"Claims looked pretty strong, definitely a big drop down. We're starting to hear noise about companies hiring, and that's what the market is waiting for. Without labor market improvement, we can't get a sustainable rally. The numbers seem to be moving in the right direction."